Low Consumer Confidence Research Articles

Sosialisasi Legalitas Badan Usaha dan Pendaftaran Merek Dagang Dalam Upaya Meningkatkan Penjualan Produk UMKM di Wilayah Banyumas

This article evaluates the effectiveness of the socialization of business entity legality and trademark registration to increase sales of MSME products in the Banyumas region. The main problems MSMEs face in Banyumas are the low level of business legality and the need for awareness of the importance of trademark registration, which impacts low consumer confidence and limited market access. The research method used was qualitative, with data collection techniques through observation and documentary studies. The results showed that the socialization of MSME actors in business legality and trademark registration increased the knowledge and awareness of MSME actors about the importance of business legality and trademarks. The dynamics of the mentoring process showed the strengthening of MSME networks and collaboration and the emergence of local leaders who play an active role in the community.

Understanding consumer confidence evolution in response to adverse shocks and how marketing contributes to business s success in economic downturns

Purpose- Firstly, this paper examines how current measurements of consumer confidence might be used to forecast future household spending by using economic variable (i.e. unemployment rate, national adjusted income per capita) data in China, with the help of statistic tools (i.e. Python and Pandas) for the job of data cleaning and analyzing. Secondly, I will focus on the ways in which businesses alter their marketing mix in the face of economic hardship to survive by understanding the importance of utilizing effective marketing strategies during economic downturns. Methodology- This paper examines the predictive performance of consumer confidence index on change in consumption growth by constructing three different OLS regression models and by integrating several existing proposals for effective marketing strategies for businesses in times of low consumer confidence to help business managers to make wise and effective response to economic downturns. Findings- It is shown both 1 year lagged consumer confidence and 3 years lagged consumer confidence are good predictors for current change in consumption patterns, whereas 2 years lagged consumer confidence shows negative correlation with consumption change, and consumer confidence have their own predictive power regardless of the macroeconomic variables. Conclusion- Therefore, this paper contributes to the existing literature by providing empirical findings that consumer confidence cannot always fulfill the role of anticipating consumption change and by further providing concrete policy recommendations for consumer confidence’ revival during recessions in an effort to fill the gap. Keywords: Consumer confidence, marketing, consumption, consumer behavior, forecasting. JEL Codes: B16, B22, E21, E27, M21, M31

АНАЛІЗ ДІЯЛЬНОСТІ КЛЮЧОВИХ ПІДПРИЄМСТВ ТЕЛЕКОМУНІКАЦІЙНОЇ ГАЛУЗІ УКРАЇНИ ТА ЇХ КОНКУРЕНЦІЯ

The article analyzes the volume of sales of goods and services of PJSC "Kyivstar" and its main competitors in the telecommunications industry of Ukraine. The matrix of the Boston Consulting Group was built. According to the matrix strategy, all sales volume indicators were divided into four categories. With the help of the constructed matrix, the development prospects of enterprises in the telecommunications industry of Ukraine and the level of their competition are determined. In accordance with the Law of Ukraine "On Telecommunications", the main principles of activity in the field of telecommunications are revealed. It was determined what shares of the mobile communications market in Ukraine are made up of Lifecell, Vodafone and Kyivstar. Assessing the state of the communications industry in Ukraine, numerous problems with the development of the mobile communications market were identified, the main ones of which can be called: the inability to develop the market, low consumer confidence, the deterioration of the stability of telecommunication networks, inefficient network management, the presence of a large number of rural, mountainous or economically depressed areas that have limited access to telecommunications services, and concerns about the ability of telecommunications providers and providers to use infrastructure without prejudice, excluding electricity, transport and building elements. It is recorded that almost all indicators of PJSC "Kyivstar" exceed the indicators of its main competitors over the last year, namely "Lifecell" and "Vodafone". The Boston Consulting Group (BCG) matrix based on the relative market share of Kyivstar PJSC from Lifecell and Vodafone showed that Kyivstar completely dominates its competitors. A development strategy has been formulated for competing companies, namely: the "Milk Cow" strategy will be appropriate for the leader of the telecommunications industry of Ukraine - Kyivstar PJSC, the "Difficult Children" strategy has been offered to Vodafone, but the "Dog" strategy is more suitable for the company "Lifecell", which is mostly inferior to its competitors in terms of sales. The main problems and ways to solve them are revealed.

Inflation and Recession under Economic Crisis

This paper examines the macroeconomic impact on economies of recent crisis events, such as the coronavirus pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict have led to unprecedented disruptions in supply, demand, and productivity, with catastrophic impacts on health, society and the economy across the globe. This paper compares the changes in the relevant economic data of the United States, Europe and China through a simple comparison of graphic data (all from Trading Economics), and explores the differences and causes. It is clear that all three regions have been hit hard, and unemployment rates in the United States and the European Union have risen sharply during the pandemic, reaching a peak in recent 10 years. Their core consumer price indices (core CPI, excluding volatile items such as food and energy) rose sharply after the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. China's core CPI showed a V-shaped trend, which briefly fell after the epidemic in 2020, but began to rise sharply in 2021, which is due to the low consumer confidence in China in 2020. Consumption went sluggish, and market prices fell, which is reflected in the core CPI as a downward trend. In 2021, consumption picked up, then prices rose, and the core CPI also rebounded. China's unemployment rate has also changed significantly, rising during both crises.

The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks to Consumption under Different Confidence Regimes Based on a Stochastic Uncertainty-in-Mean TVAR Model

Exogenous uncertainty shocks may have different effects on domestic and foreign consumption under different consumer confidence regimes. In this paper, we specify a threshold vector autoregressive (TVAR) model with different consumer confidence regimes to study the response of endogenous macroeconomic variables to exogenous shocks. The evidence shows that in China, compared to high consumer confidence, low consumer confidence dampens consumption both at home and abroad. However, low consumer confidence benefits exports, the source of foreign consumption. A forecast error variance decomposition analysis further confirms the difference in the effects under different consumer confidence regimes. A comparative analysis shows that consumer confidence is much more influential in the US than in China. Our findings differ from those of earlier works, as we introduce stochastic uncertainty to both the mean and heteroscedasticity and apply counterfactual analysis to show the hazard of ignoring stochastic uncertainty in the traditional threshold vector autoregression. Finally, from the ex ante and ex post perspectives, we provide managerial implications for the authorities to tackle economic issues based on different consumer confidence regimes.

A Root Cause Analyses of Low Consumer Confidence in Distributed Wind Energy

A Root Cause Analyses of Low Consumer Confidence in Distributed Wind Energy

Unburnt building materials in the trend of sustainable development - Situation and solutions in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

The purpose of this article is to assess the current situation of production and consumption of Unburnt Building Materials (UBMs) in the Mekong Delta, thereby proposing solutions to promote the consumption of UBMs in the Mekong Delta in the coming time. Research results from the survey of producers and customers organized as well as discussions with local officials show that the whole Mekong Delta has more than 120 producers consuming through 02 main channels. Sales channels that direct customers are construction contractors - organizational customers (accounting for 90%) and through construction material trading companies (about 10%). In general, both the production and consumption of UBMs in the Mekong Delta face difficulties. Limited production capacity, limited capacity of UBMs, and low consumer confidence in UBM products are typical difficulties. Planning for the development of UBMs, organizing production to improve the innovation capacity of manufacturers and construction contractors, strengthening the link between manufacturers and UBMs consuming partners, promoting product branding products, enhancing sales promotion innovation activities, etc. are the main solutions to promote this industry to develop more in the Mekong Delta in the coming time.

CONSUMER TRUST ON BUYING INTEREST IN ONLINE SHOPPING: E-COMMERCE SHOPEE

Abstract. This study aimed to determine the effect of consumer trust on buying interest in online shopping on e-commerce shopee. Low consumer confidence is a barrier to increasing buying interest in e-commerce. This causes low buying interest and the emergence of fear to make online transactions. This study is qualitative research. The participants were 97 students from the faculties of psychology, teacher training, and economics Universitas Muhammadiyah Gresik which were obtained by incidental sampling. Collecting data to measure buying interest using the adoption of a buying interest scale from Kotler, while to measure consumer confidence adopting a consumer trust scale from Daqin Lu 2017 and Dulipovici 2015. Both of these scales use a Likert scale. Test the validity of the scale using content validity. Scale reliability test using Alpha Cronbach technique. The results showed the Spearman rank test with a sig value. (2-tailed) of 0.000 <0.05, indicating Ha is accepted, it is concluded that consumer trust has a significant effect on buying interest. The correlation coefficient value is positive at 0.728, so it can be concluded that the direction of the two variables is unidirectional, which means that if consumer confidence increases, buying interest will also increase. The correlation coefficient value of 0.728 indicates the influence of the two variables has a strong influence.

Fault Analysis of Solar Thermal Systems in Bhutan

The Royal Government of Bhutan has accorded the highest priority towards diversifying the energy-mix through the promotion of renewable energy technologies. There is a national target to generate 3 MW equivalent of energy from the installation of solar thermal systems alone. However, little investment and priority are given for development of solar thermal applications. Some of the present existing solar water heating (SWH) systems are exhibiting faults which leads to low consumer confidence in SWH technology due to the non-functioning of previous installations which is very detrimental in this introductory stage. This study aims to identify problems of existing SWH systems through field surveys and develop a draft guideline to avoid faults in the future. To analyse the problems with existing SWH systems in Bhutan, the first phase of the study consists of collecting secondary information and opinion from the relevant government sector, local installing companies and end-users. The information on the manufacturer’s products, policy barriers, markets and consumer challenges is also collected. Base on this information, findings on the limitation of existing policy instrument and gap in demand and supply side is described. The second phase of the study comprises field visits to existing SWH system sites. The field surveys of twelve representative existing SWH systems are analyzed. Out of twelve sites, eight SWH systems had critical faults which causes major failure of the system and the other four sites had minor faults. To analyse the faults of existing SWH systems, faults are classified into design faults, plumbing circuit faults, solar collector faults, absorber faults, installation faults and user behavior faults. The major faults which lead to the failure of the existing SWH system are plumbing failure, condensation inside the collector and absorber tube leakage. The causes and solutions of the faults are discussed.

On the relation between purchasing manager’s index and trade policy uncertainty: evidence from China, Japan and the USA

PurposeTrade uncertainty does influence the firm’s new investment, profitability and supply chain finance. Consequently, it results in decreased consumption and low consumer confidence and eventually disrupts global economic activity. This paper aims to propose a model to uncover the effects of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on the real economic activity and economy’s health measured in terms of the purchasing manager’s index (PMI).Design/methodology/approachThis study uses the PMI, trade policy uncertainty index, economic policy uncertainty index and short-term interest rate. The relation between economic activity and uncertainty was studied using nested regression and vector autoregressive model.FindingsThe empirical results show that PMI of China and Japan were more responsive to the TPU of the USA and remained more fluctuating during the year 2018–2019. Importantly, this paper notices that the US’s PMI reached a low historically subject to its own trade policy and tension with China. Overall, TPU has shown more pronounced effects on PMI across China, Japan and the USA, followed by important economic and political events and major trade tariff uncertainty deals.Practical implicationsThe empirical outcome holds some practical implications trade uncertainty affects not only the economic health of the economy but also market participants, global investors and international political environment, recent trade barriers, tariff wars and ambiguity raise question about free and fair global trade and competitiveness of the member country of the world trade organization.Originality/valueThe work is a novel that attempts to explain economic activity and supply chain through PMI. Unlike conventional economic indicators, e.g. gross domestic product, producer price index, consumer price index, employment, etc. PMI measures manufacturing industries’ overall status concerning the number of orders, inventory levels, productions, supplier deliveries and employment.

Value at risk and the cross-section of expected returns: Evidence from China

In the Chinese stock market, we find that the cross-sectional relation between value-at-risk (VaR) and expected returns is unclear, which is different from the recent findings in the United States. Additionally, VaR is negatively related with expected returns and cannot be explained by idiosyncratic volatility, momentum, short-term reversal, or maximum daily return during a high consumer confidence period. In contrast, no significant relation is observed between VaR and expected returns during a period of low consumer confidence.

TRANSFORMATION OF THE TOURISM INDUSTRY AS A CONSEQUENCE OF COVID-19

The article examines the changes and consequences in the field of tourism under the influence of the pandemic. Based on the analysis of the report of the World Tourism Organization UNWTO, it was found that in the first ten months of 2020, the number of international revenues decrease by 72%, due to travel restrictions, low consumer confidence and the global fight against COVID-19. in the first quarter of 2020, there was already a 22% reduction in travel, and arrivals in March fell to 57% in all markets. That means a loss of 67 million international tourists and about $ 80 billion in revenue. It is determined that Ukraine lags far behind in the implementation of measures to support tourism, so the forecasts for competitiveness are disappointing. The share of tourism contributions to the economy of Ukraine, according to various estimates, is about 7-10%, and the tourism-related economy in Ukraine depends mainly on domestic tourism and the domestic component of outbound tourism. The results of our own survey were analyzed, on the basis of which (107 respondents mostly from Sumy) it was determined: respondents are amateur travelers, so after quarantine 50% of them will travel as before, without much changes; people consciously and responsibly approach the rules of life during a pandemic, so they are ready to refrain from traveling for some time for the sake of safety of life and health, or travel in compliance with all safety measures, or will choose travel on their own; the main factor when choosing a trip is its cost; respondents are interested in the development of tourism in Ukraine and in their regions, ready to support the development of this area. Moreover, an analysis of the Booking platform research was conducted and their forecasts for tourism trends in 2021 were singled out. We formed ways to solve the problems of tourism in Ukraine: the restoration and proper condition of natural resources, historical and cultural heritage of the country; qualitatively and with interest to inform about tourist places of the country, to launch advertising campaigns; by the authorities - to provide financial and legal support to the tourism industry; support of domestic air and rail connections, as well as regulation of ticket prices, etc.

ТРЕНДИ МІЖНАРОДНОГО ТУРИЗМУ В УМОВАХ ГЛОБАЛЬНОЇ ЕКОНОМІЧНОЇ КРИЗИ

The article provides an analytical study of the current situation and areas of international tourism as a component of the global economy. The purpose of the study: to identify key factors and analyze the dynamics of the international tourism industry, and to identify promising ways to develop it to restore a leading role in the global economic system. Until the beginning of 2020, the global tourism industry was considered one of the most promising areas of economic activity: a significant contribution to GDP, growing employment in the industry and new jobs in related fields contributed to the active attraction of new businesses and investment. Now the international tourism industry is experiencing a crisis, losing billions in profits both globally. The main negative factors in the resumption of tourist flow are the existing restrictions on travel, slowing down vaccination, the global economic crisis, uncoordinated efforts to resolve the problem between governments, low consumer confidence and the long resumption of air services. In the research course it is substantiated that among the proposed development scenarios there is definitely no sense to expect optimism, because a new coronavirus is spreading around the world and the pace of global recovery will slow down again. Taking into account all the current circumstances of international tourism development, the most current development trends have been identified, including: ensuring social distance during travel, implementation of sustainable tourism principles, comprehensive informatization of the route and full awareness of tourists before and during travel, reorientation to FIT-tourism, change of popular tourist destinations and transfer preferences. Taking into account the identified current circumstances, negative factors and certain trends in world tourism will allow all tourism service providers to resume their activities at the international level and ensure a sustainable flow of tourists, stabilize their financial and economic situation and end the global economic crisis.

Housing careers and the Great Recession

This paper studies the housing careers of renters and homeowners before, during and after the Great Recession by using the concept of the housing ladder. Based on Dutch administrative data, we find that renters and homeowners were less likely to climb the housing ladder during the Great Recession than before and that these upward movement rates recovered to pre-recession levels afterwards. The negative recession effect was driven by a decreased probability of moving to privately owned housing. The decrease in the probability of house buying may be explained by low consumer confidence, housing price uncertainty and a limited supply of housing due to loss aversion.

Baromètre OMT du tourisme mondial et annexe statistique, Octobre 2020

International travel plunges 70% in the first eight months of 2020. International tourist arrivals (overnight visitors) declined 70% in the first eight months of 2020 over the same period of last year, amid global travel restrictions including many borders fully closed, to contain the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. International arrivals plunged 81% in July and 79% in August, traditionally the two busiest months of the year and the peak of the Northern Hemisphere summer season. Despite such large declines, this represents a relative improvement over the 90% or greater decreases of the previous months, as some destinations started to reopen to international tourism, mostly in the European Union. The decline in January-August 2020 represents 700 million fewer international tourist arrivals compared to the same period in 2019, and translates into a loss of US$ 730 billion in export revenues from international tourism, more than 8 times the loss in 2009 under the impact of the global economic crisis. Asia and the Pacific, the first region to suffer the impact of the pandemic, saw a 79% decrease in arrivals in January-August 2020. Africa and the Middle East both recorded a 69% drop this eight-month period, while Europe saw a 68% decline and the Americas 65%. Data on international tourism expenditure continues to reflect very weak demand for outbound travel, though in several large markets such as the United States, Germany and Italy there is a small uptick in spending in the months of July and August. Based on latest trends, a 75% decrease in international arrivals is estimated for the month of September and a drop of close to 70% for the whole of 2020. While demand for international travel remains subdued, domestic tourism is strengthening recovery in several large markets such as China and Russia. The UNWTO Confidence Index continues at record lows. Most UNWTO Panel Experts expect a rebound in international tourism by the third quarter of 2021 and a return to pre-pandemic 2019 levels not before 2023. Experts consider travel restrictions as the main barrier weighing on the recovery of international tourism, along with slow virus containment and low consumer confidence.

UNWTO World Tourism Barometer and Statistical Annex, October 2020

International travel plunges 70% in the first eight months of 2020 International tourist arrivals (overnight visitors) declined 70% in the first eight months of 2020 over the same period of last year, amid global travel restrictions including many borders fully closed, to contain the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. International arrivals plunged 81% in July and 79% in August, traditionally the two busiest months of the year and the peak of the Northern Hemisphere summer season. Despite such large declines, this represents a relative improvement over the 90% or greater decreases of the previous months, as some destinations started to reopen to international tourism, mostly in the European Union. The decline in January-August 2020 represents 700 million fewer international tourist arrivals compared to the same period in 2019, and translates into a loss of US$ 730 billion in export revenues from international tourism, more than 8 times the loss in 2009 under the impact of the global economic crisis. Asia and the Pacific, the first region to suffer the impact of the pandemic, saw a 79% decrease in arrivals in January-August 2020. Africa and the Middle East both recorded a 69% drop this eight-month period, while Europe saw a 68% decline and the Americas 65%. Data on international tourism expenditure continues to reflect very weak demand for outbound travel, though in several large markets such as the United States, Germany and Italy there is a small uptick in spending in the months of July and August. Based on latest trends, a 75% decrease in international arrivals is estimated for the month of September and a drop of close to 70% for the whole of 2020. While demand for international travel remains subdued, domestic tourism is strengthening recovery in several large markets such as China and Russia. The UNWTO Confidence Index continues at record lows. Most UNWTO Panel Experts expect a rebound in international tourism by the third quarter of 2021 and a return to pre-pandemic 2019 levels not before 2023. Experts consider travel restrictions as the main barrier weighing on the recovery of international tourism, along with slow virus containment and low consumer confidence.

Value at Risk and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns: Evidence from China

In the Chinese stock market, we find that the cross-sectional relation between value-at-risk (VaR) and expected returns is unclear, which is different from the recent findings in the United States. Additionally, VaR is negatively related with expected returns and cannot be explained by idiosyncratic volatility, momentum, short-term reversal, or maximum daily return during a high consumer confidence period. In contrast, no significant relation is observed between VaR and expected returns during a period of low consumer confidence.

Platform Interactions and Emergence of an Organizational Field: Case Study on Ola

Most digital enterprises begin as technology start-ups offering niche services, and then evolve into digital platforms providing a range of services. Against the backdrop of almost non-existent logistic and supply chain infrastructure, weak regulatory framework, low penetration of smartphones and Internet, low consumer confidence and trust on online transactions, digital entrepreneurs in developing countries literally have to build the platform ecosystem along with their organization. In this paper, we use institutional theory as a lens to trace the emergence and evolution of digital platforms in India. We posit that digital platforms are emerging organizational fields embodying new network logics with algorithms and technology-mediated interactions playing a central role in creating value. In particular, we take the case of Ola, an online cab aggregator from India to illustrate that digital platforms as organizational field evolve through three phases of (a) innovation introduction, (b) mobilization and (c) structuration. In the first phase, the organizational field characteristics are consequences of activities undertaken to raise cognitive legitimacy and respond to competitive forces. In the second phase, a mix of coercive and mimetic forces shape the institutional field resulting in increase in socio-political legitimacies. In the third phase, the process of structuration sets in as isomorphic forces become more normative. The theoretical framework developed in this paper contributes to extant information system research by putting forth that the characteristics of emerging organizational field are shaped by the interplay between the responses of the focal organization to isomorphic forces, and the actions taken by it to establish cognitive and socio-political legitimacies. Empirically the study is on digital platforms located in a large developing country with very high potential for online transactions but relatively low penetration of Internet and smartphones. Conceptualizing organizational field as digital platforms enables making sense of the changing business landscape, and examine issues of sustainability and legitimacy.

Does OPEC news sentiment influence stock returns of energy firms in the United States?

This paper utilises commodity-specific news sentiment data on the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) collected from Thomson Reuters News Analytics in the period 2003–2014 and examines the impact of foreign news sentiment on the financial performance of domestic firms in the energy sector. We find that in the US market, negative news on OPEC positively influences the stock returns of the US-listed firms. The effects of negative news sentiment on OPEC dominate our results. These results are robust in different subsectors of the oil and gas industry and in alternative specifications of oil prices and market volatility. We show that the effect is conditional on market risks and the types of news announcements made. The effect from negative news is stronger in periods of higher reserves, exports and production. However, at times of low consumer confidence and high imports, a positive OPEC news announcement negatively influences a US-listed energy firm's stock return. In the context of hedging and risk mitigation, our findings have important policy implications for investors and traders in the energy sector.

The Impact of Consumer Confidence and Store Attributes on Store Satisfaction and Store Loyalty

For retail managers it is being to understand the relationships between customers’ store attribute, store satisfaction, consumer confidence, and store loyalty as well as how these relationships change over time. In this study relationships have been investigated by using survey technique. A questionnaire developed to check consumer’s point of view about different stores in Faisalabad market. Result of our findings indicate that consumer confidence and store satisfaction have no relationship whereas store satisfaction did not play a role of mediator in between consumer confidence and store loyalty. Instead, our study shows that the relationship between services attributes and store satisfaction is stronger and positive in periods with low consumer confidence.