Low-carbon Transition Research Articles

Spatial multi-objective optimization towards low-carbon transition in the Yangtze River Economic Belt of China

ContextIn the context of urbanization and climate change, optimizing land use patterns is fundamental for sustainable regional development and low-carbon transition. However, achieving sustainable land use patterns that support a low-carbon transition while maintaining economic prosperity remains challenging.ObjectivesOur goals are to develop a model for low-carbon transition and explore strategies for optimizing land use given future land use constraints.MethodsWe propose a multi-objective optimization approach to explore land use transitions towards low carbon by considering emissions reduction, ecological protection, and economic development, taking Yangtze River Economic Belt of China was selected as a case study area for empirical research.ResultsOur research on Yangtze River Economic Belt of China from 2000 to 2020 reveals that the refined land use strategies, aiming at achieving a low-carbon transition by 2035, have the capacity to substantially reduce carbon emissions. Simultaneously, these strategies ensure the preservation of a higher ecosystem service value and enhance economic advantages. Our multi-objective optimized land use patterns reduce the emission growth by nearly 5% compared to the baseline. Meanwhile, our multi-objective optimized land use patterns demonstrate a nearly 7% growth rate in economic benefits and the ecosystem service value also shows slight improvement. Recognizing regional variations in sustainable land use patterns, we recommend customized local guidance towards aligning with these optimal outcomes.ConclusionOur study offers valuable policy insights for regional land use to facilitate a low-carbon transition, which can contribute to navigating the trade-offs between carbon reduction, ecological protection, and economic prosperity.

Tourism and the climate crisis

2023 was a landmark year for climate change, with hundreds of climate records broken around the world concurrent with the conclusion of the IPCC Sixth Assessment (AR6) process and the first United Nations (UN) Stocktake on climate action. This special issue builds on the AR6 with three papers on key global tourism and climate change knowledge gaps (tourism and climate policy integration, pathways to deep emission reductions, tourism demand) and nine in-depth assessments of tourism climate and carbon risk in each of the IPCC regions. These important contributions of 65 different authors from 30 countries also supported the first ever global stocktake of climate action in the tourism sector. The papers in this special issue make clear that global tourism as we know it in the early twenty first century will be transformed by the climate crisis. Based on the collective contributions, this introduction to the special issue summarizes the state of tourism and climate change research, sets out a research agenda related to the low carbon transition, adapting to accelerating climate disruption, and climate justice, and emphasizes the urgent need to mobilize the tourism academy in this decisive decade for climate action.

Assessment of export-embodied CO2 emissions from China’s ocean industries: implications for formulating sustainable ocean policies

The ocean industries are characterized by being export-driven. The exports of ocean industries (hereafter termed ocean exports) caused environmental pollution with amounts of CO2 emissions and thereby affected climate change. There is a need, therefore, for accurate assessments of CO2 emissions embodied in ocean exports—which can help policymakers adopt targeted emission-reduction measures to formulate sustainable ocean policies. However, few studies of ocean-industry emissions considered impacts in sectoral and trade pattern heterogeneity, especially from export perspective. To fill this gap, we measured and evaluated the export-embodied CO2 emissions from China’s ocean industries, based on our newly developed high-resolution and comparable time-series environmentally extended input–output database, called EE-DPN-OEIOT. The results showed that China’s ocean exports generated 94.3 Mt of embodied CO2 emissions in 2017, with nearly 40% originating from processing ocean exports. Regarding the evolution from 2007 to 2017, the total export-embodied CO2 emissions from ocean industries decreased by 7.3%, while the embodied CO2 emissions in processing ocean exports increased by 50.1%. From 2007 to 2017, the decrease in carbon emission intensity was the major driving factor of the downturn in export-embodied CO2 emissions across the total ocean economy and for seven ocean subsectors (60%), while the export-scale effect primarily drove the increases in CO2 emissions. Moreover, there were disparities in the driving factors behind changes in embodied CO2 emissions between processing and non-processing ocean exports. Based on our findings, we proposed three recommendations from a trade perspective to facilitate low-carbon sustainable transition of China’s ocean economy, thus better fulfilling Sustainable Development Goal 14.

Complexity in low-carbon transitions: Uncertainty and policy implications

We explore the uncertain dimension induced by the complexity of energy systems, analyzing whether and under which conditions low-carbon transitions can effectively take place. By accounting for social and environmental considerations, heterogeneous single utility-maximizing agents optimally decide whether to adopt a green technology which reduces carbon emissions, allowing eventually for a green energy transition. We characterize the determinants of the success of such a transition, emphasizing that even if the favorable conditions are met the low-carbon transition may not result in long run environmental improvements due to the path-dependency and metastability phenomena which characterize the complexity arising from agents’ interactions. Public policy may solve these issues by increasing the incentive for single individuals to adopt, ensuring thus the achievement of a permanent low-carbon state. By extending the analysis to a spatial network characterized by multiplexity due to the social and environmental interconnections, we show that spatial interactions negatively affect agents’ adoption incentive and reduce the effectiveness of public policy by interacting in a complex way with path-dependency and metastability. In particular, spatial interactions may require a larger subsidy to support a permanent low-carbon transition, thus neglecting their effects on agents’ behavior and environmental outcomes may compromise our chances to achieve a greener future.

Optimization study of a high-proportion of solar tower aided coal-fired power generation system integrated with thermal energy storage

Solar aided coal-fired power generation technologies have proven to be effective in reducing fossil fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emission. In this research, a high-proportion solar tower aided coal-fired power generation system integrated with thermal energy storage system is proposed. According to the constraint conditions, the integration scheme with the highest solar coupling capacity is obtained, and its thermodynamic, economic and environmental performances are researched. The results indicate that the solar coupling capacity that can be accommodated by the 660 MW coal-fired unit after parameter optimization is 339.532 MWth. As the load rate decreases, the power generated from solar and solar to electricity efficiency gradually decreases while the proportion of power from solar increases. The proportion of power from solar reaches a maximum of 24.28 % at 50 % load rate. The effects of different thermal energy storage hours on the levelized cost of electricity are investigated, and the results show that the lowest levelized cost of electricity is only 41.62 $/MWh in the high-level direct normal irradiance area. The new system can reduce about 272,921 tons of CO2 emissions in a year at 100 % load rate. This study contributes to further promoting the development of a high-proportion solar aided coal-fired power generation system and realizing the low-carbon transition of coal-fired power generation industry.

Pathways towards low-carbon sustainable agriculture: how farmland size affects net carbon emissions

ABSTRACT Understanding the impact of farmland size adjustment on net crop carbon emissions (NCEs) is crucial for both effective farmland management and sustainable development, which are essential topics in agri-environmental science. However, studies exploring the relationship between farmland size and NCEs remain limited, particularly in developing countries with scarce farmland, such as China. To fill this gap, this paper discusses farmland size’s impact on NCEs using a threshold model combining endogenous switching regression (ESR) and two-stage least squares (2SLS) with survey data from 2600 Chinese farmers. The results show that increasing farmland size curbs the scale and intensity of NCEs. However, their relationship follows a triple threshold effect, where substantial NCEs mitigation occurs only when the per-household farmland size exceeds specific thresholds of 5.1, 15.2, and 46.7 ha. Expanding farmland size can also indirectly reduce NCEs by promoting green agricultural technologies (GAT) adoption. Moreover, lowering farmers’ time preferences and enhancing technical training can increase the positive effect of farmland size expansion on GAT adoption and reduce NCEs further. However, the emission reduction effects vary by GAT type. Soil testing and fertilization technology, pest control technology, and water-saving irrigation technology reduce NCEs, while the other GAT have insignificant effects. Overall, our study sheds light on the intricate relationships between farmland size, GAT adoption, and NCEs, and provides valuable insights for low-carbon, sustainable agriculture policies. We suggest that policymakers can reduce NCEs and facilitate agriculture’s low-carbon transition by promoting moderate farmland size expansion and locally adapted GAT.

Business Responsibility in Low-Carbon Transition: A Conceptual Model to Address Structural Injustice

Business Responsibility in Low-Carbon Transition: A Conceptual Model to Address Structural Injustice

Distribution and potential assessment of biomass raw material resources in the Inner Mongolia region

Abstract With the national energy transition and upgrading, the development of clean energy has attracted significant attention. Among these, agricultural biomass energy plays a crucial role in realizing a low-carbon transition. Taking the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region as a case study, this research assesses and analyzes the potential of biomass availability in agricultural waste by introducing net biomass calculation. It also examines the overall characteristics of the spatial distribution of available biomass resources in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region using GIS software. The results indicate that in 2022, the total amount of straw resources in Inner Mongolia will reach 48, 926, 800, 000 tons, with 24, 198, 900, 000 tons of available biomass energy. Additionally, the dry matter content of livestock and poultry waste is estimated at 28, 198, 000, 000 tons, with 14, 233, 200, 200 tons of available biomass energy. Geospatial analysis reveals a decreasing trend in the regional distribution of available biomass resources from the northeast to the southwest. Furthermore, this paper analyzes various biomass utilization methods. It is estimated that biomass resources can reduce carbon emissions by 913.72 tons if used for biomass power generation. Biomass can also be utilized in pyrolysis and gasification processes. Through these conversion technologies, approximately 2562.62 tons of available biomass in the Inner Mongolia region can be converted. In the benefit analysis, the Inner Mongolia region demonstrates a good economic and environmental situation, with an estimated economic benefit and environmental situation, with an estimated economic benefit of about 70-17 million yuan. Overall, agricultural biomass feedstocks in Inner Mongolia hold significant potential for achieving the dual-carbon goals. Relevant departments should intensify their research and development efforts to promote green agriculture and realize sustainable development.

Does the Low-Carbon Transition Affect the Wage Level of Enterprises? Evidence from China’s Low-Carbon City Pilot Policies

Does the Low-Carbon Transition Affect the Wage Level of Enterprises? Evidence from China’s Low-Carbon City Pilot Policies

Just transition as practitioners’ acceptance of technical solutions to decarbonize: Insights from the glass manufacturing industry

The concept of a just transition in energy-intensive industries is gaining growing attention in both academic and practical realms. Stakeholders’ perspectives, particularly those of frontline workers in relevant fields, are crucial for understanding the nuances of a just transition. However, research in this domain, especially concerning the glass manufacturing industry, remains yet sparse. The current study fills this gap by developing an integrated framework that assesses the attitude of practitioners towards a low-carbon transition, as evidenced by their stance on implementing sustainable energy technologies (SET) in glass production. It also explores disparities among different groups to detect potential injustice issues, and examines the factors that drive their support for SET. Utilizing survey data from 270 frontline practitioners within glass manufacturing corporations in China, we have obtained a preliminary understanding of their opinions toward SET, and uncovered variances indicative of justice-related concerns. We delved deeper into the determinants of SET support using a three-dimensional model and hierarchical regression analysis. Our findings indicate that social-psychological attributes, perceived intrinsic qualities of SET, and perceived extrinsic contextual elements are all significant motivators for the acceptance of SET. In light of these insights, we propose recommendations for policymaking and environmental communication that incorporate considerations of justice.

“Carbon” boards and transition risk: Explicit and implicit exposure implications for total stock returns and dividends payouts

Transition risk disclosure facilitates investors' understanding of the potential company-level risks associated with a low-carbon transition. Among the others, stricter regulations could undermine companies' financial performances, affecting operations costs and revenues and their impact being proportional to the business carbon intensity. Transition risk disclosure takes two forms. One is a textual description of transition risk in compulsory and voluntary non-financial disclosure. The other is the disclosure of carbon emissions and intensity, which is implicitly associated with transition risk exposure. We empirically assess the impact of the two transition risk measures on shareholder returns to test the “carbon premium” hypothesis. We consider shareholder return as the sum of capital gain and dividend paid and analyse the impact of transition risk on both. Evidence supports the “carbon premium” hypothesis but suggests such a premium is transferred to shareholders primarily via dividend payouts. One possible explanation consistent with this evidence is that boards in highly polluting companies use dividends to compensate investors for the relatively lower capital gain, dissuading them from divesting due to low returns, stigmatisation effects and regulatory risks.

Compound criticality of bauxite production: implications for sustainability and trade neo-colonialism

We describe bauxite as having compound criticality. (1) It is a critical raw material (CRM) from which alumina and thereby aluminium are produced, and aluminium has the highest production levels of all metals deemed significant to the Clean Energy Transition. (2) Gallium is a by-product CRM, extracted during alumina refining. (3) Multiple other CRM by-products could be extracted during alumina refining: scandium, lithium, cobalt, titanium and REE. (4) Production is profoundly influenced by price inelasticity (for by-products), regime instability of bauxite production and supply chain bottlenecks. We review the geology of bauxite ore deposits as a function of complex CRM supply potential, and interrogate the trait of criticality using four of the world's dominant producer nations of bauxite and potential patterns of value addition from raw materials to refined products. Trade agreements and mitigation strategies to ensure security of supply in consumer regions prioritize removal of low-cost bauxite by large-scale mining operations and shipping of unprocessed ore at high CO 2 footprint from producer nations. Ore-refining nations have investments that are deemed extractive because they remove large quantities of raw material for export with minimal or no in-country processing and they can also place producer nations in debt. Opposition to neo-colonial debt-trap policies and extractive practices increases regime instability and thereby criticality. We highlight how societal-environmental-political interactions and the mineral-energy nexus in the bauxite-aluminium supply chain are subject to increasing turbulence, which may reshape the geographies of supply chains.

Utilizing green finance to promote low-carbon transition of Chinese cities: insights from technological innovation and industrial structure adjustment

Green finance (GF) has emerged as a promising tool to promote low-carbon development, while knowledge is rather limited regarding the underlying mechanism. This article aims to address this void by constructing a city-level GF index covering seven dimensions and identifying the main pathways through which GF can facilitate the low-carbon development of cities. Using a balanced panel data covering 277 Chinese cities from 2010 to 2020, the results show that: (1) China’s GF development exhibits an overall spatial differentiation of ‘high in the east and low in the west’, while the distribution of carbon intensity (CI) displays an overall spatial differentiation of ‘high in the north and low in the south’; (2) GF significantly decreases CI of cities, which is robust to employing DID strategies and IV estimations; (3) The role of GF on CI varies with the level of CI whereas not with the level of GF. Specifically, the mitigating effect of GF on CI is significant in both high GF and low GF groups, but only in high CI group; and (4) GF promotes low-carbon transition of cities through mainly on adjusting industrial structure rather than stimulating technological innovation. Despite we also demonstrate green finance enhances green innovation, due to multi-factors, such technology progress it brings may not always translate into a tangible improvement in green productivity. For most developing countries including China, the future policy objective of green finance should focus on enhancing sustainable technological progress.

A Systems Engineering Approach to Decarbonizing Mining: Analyzing Electrification and CO2 Emission Reduction Scenarios for Copper Mining Haulage Systems

Due to climate change risks, the public, regulators, and investors require solid actions to minimize the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of mineral extraction and metals production. The mining sector considers alternatives to reduce its carbon footprint by transforming the business and adopting new technologies into operations. Given the capital intensity, technical characteristics, and business structure involved, a shift in the mining industry necessitates impartial insights into the trade-offs and risks. Considering the low-carbon transition trade-offs and risks in mining, this study presents the application of system dynamics modeling (SDM) in mining projects to analyze the impact of decarbonization alternatives with respect to carbon footprint and costs. A system dynamics model of an open-pit copper mine is developed to quantify greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, as well as capital and operational costs, during the project life cycle. The change in GHG emissions in the business-as-usual scenario with diesel equipment haulage versus the alternative scenario with electric overland conveyor haulage is compared concerning GHG emissions and associated costs. The results unequivocally demonstrated that electrifying material mobility offers significant decarbonization in open-pit mining if the on-site electricity has a low emission factor. The findings also indicate that the substantial cost difference between electrification and diesel alternatives is another major obstacle to implementing electrification in an open-pit copper mine. This research proves that implementing SDM in the mining industry can offer impartial insights into decision-making and enable a thorough evaluation of options using quantitative criteria. It effectively assesses and communicates the trade-offs and risks of transitioning to low-carbon alternatives because it analyzes project variables quantitatively and holistically and is easy to run.

Potential of hydrogen and thermal storage in the long-term transition of the power sector: A case study of China

Hydrogen and thermal storage can reduce cost of long-term and large-scale energy storage with high efficiency and low or even zero carbon emissions. Their potential in the low-carbon transition pathway of an energy system with rapid growth of energy demand, large shifting of energy supply structure and limited investment budget remains unclear. A long-term power generation planning model is proposed in this paper, featuring detailed technical and economic characteristics of hydrogen and thermal storage. The power supply system of China is selected as a case study, due to its urgent need for low-carbon transition and complex spatial characteristics. Results show that the application of hydrogen and thermal storage can benefit the development of volatile renewable power generation technologies, facilitate the transition towards zero or even negative carbon emissions while simultaneously reducing power supply costs. Hydrogen is expected to be mainly produced in spring and consumed in summer while heat is expected to be primarily generated in autumn and consumed in winter. Shifting from thermal storage to hydrogen storage might happen around 2050 in accordance to the low-carbon transition progress.

Overlooked carbon sinks in the house building industry and the influential factors

The study aims to establish a carbon sink measurement model for the house building industry and analyze the time-varying characteristics of influential factors. China's house building industry exhibited an increasing trend in carbon sink, from 0.336 billion tons in 2000 to 234.1 million tons in 2020. This study defines the carbon sink coefficient of the house building industry to understand its carbon sink capacity. From 2000 to 2020, the average carbon dioxide absorption per square meter of floor space annually, throughout its life cycle, is 2.09 kg. Factors influencing the carbon sink were analyzed using Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) model. The most influential factor was resource consumption intensity, followed by value dependence level and output scale effect. Employing Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression (TVP-VAR), this study examines the impact of macro factors on carbon sinks at various lead times and specific points. Resource consumption intensity exhibits significant time-varying effects. Value dependence level negatively influences, primarily in the medium and long terms, while the output scale effect consistently shows a positive influence, mainly in the long term. Scenario forecasting suggests that by 2035, under low-carbon transition scenarios, carbon sinks could increase by 8.28% and 17.26% compared to baseline and high-carbon crude scenarios, respectively. To foster this growth, prolonging the service life of houses, enhancing construction site management and waste treatment, and employing higher value-added production factors are recommended.

The Impact of Green Credit on Regional Low-Carbon Transition: A Study on the Mediating Effect Based on Environmental Regulation and Green Technology Innovation

This study uses a mediation effect model to examine in detail how green credit affects the effectiveness of the regional low-carbon transition, based on panel data collected between 2012 and 2022 from 30 provinces in China. The findings indicate that green credit not only increases energy efficiency by fostering the advancement and innovation of green technology but also encourages the relaxation of environmental regulations, which in turn lowers carbon emissions. Environmental regulations and the advancement of environmentally friendly technology innovation play a major mediating role in the process. Innovation in green technology and environmental legislation are important mediating factors in this process. Furthermore, elements like local economic growth have an impact on how green credit is implemented.

Global Trends in the Research and Development of Petrochemical Waste Gas from 1981 to 2022

As a highly energy-intensive and carbon-emitting industry with significant emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), the petroleum and chemical industry is a major contributor to the global greenhouse effect and ozone layer destruction. Improper treatment of petrochemical waste gas (PWG) seriously harms human health and the natural environment. This study uses CiteSpace and VOSviewer to conduct a scientometric analysis of 1384 scholarly works on PWG and carbon sequestration published between 1981 and 2022, revealing the basic characteristics, knowledge base, research topic evolution, and research hotspots of the field. The results show the following: (1) In the early stages of the petrochemical industry, it was processed tail gas, plant leakage waste gas, and combustion flue gas that were investigated in PWG research. (2) Later, green environmental protection technology was widely studied in the field of PWG treatment, such as biotechnology, catalytic oxidation technology, membrane separation technology, etc., in order to achieve efficient, low energy consumption and low emissions of waste gas treatment, and the number of publications related to this topic has increased rapidly. In addition, researchers studied the internet of things and technology integration, such as the introduction of artificial intelligence, big data analysis, and other technologies, to improve the accuracy and efficiency of exhaust gas monitoring, control, and management. (3) The department has focused on how to reduce emissions by optimizing petrochemical process lines or improving energy efficiency. Emission reduction and low-carbon transition in the petrochemical industry will become the main trend in the future. Switching from renewable carbon to feedstock carbon derived from captured carbon dioxide, biomass, or recycled chemicals has become an attractive strategy to help curb emissions from the chemical industry. The results of our analysis can provide funding agencies and research groups with information to better understand the global trends and directions that have emerged in this field from 1981 to 2022 and serve as a reference for future research.

Can the Digital Economy Empower Low-Carbon Transition Development? New Evidence from Chinese Resource-Based Cities

Can the Digital Economy Empower Low-Carbon Transition Development? New Evidence from Chinese Resource-Based Cities

Digital Economy and Urban Low-Carbon Transition: Theoretical Model and New Mechanisms

Digital Economy and Urban Low-Carbon Transition: Theoretical Model and New Mechanisms