Low-carbon Transition Pathways Research Articles

Potential of Hydrogen and Thermal Storage in the Long-term Transition of the Power Sector: A Case Study of China

Hydrogen and thermal storage can reduce cost of long-term and large-scale energy storage with high efficiency and low or even zero carbon emissions. Their potential in the low-carbon transition pathway of an energy system with rapid growth of energy demand, large shifting of energy supply structure and limited investment budget remains unclear. A long-term power generation planning model is proposed in this paper, featuring detailed technical and economic characteristics of hydrogen and thermal storage. The power supply system of China is selected as a case study, due to its urgent need for low-carbon transition and complex spatial characteristics. Results show that the application of hydrogen and thermal storage can benefit the development of volatile renewable power generation technologies, facilitate the transition towards zero or even negative carbon emissions while simultaneously reducing power supply costs. Hydrogen is expected to be mainly produced in spring and consumed in summer while heat is expected to be primarily generated in autumn and consumed in winter. Shifting from thermal storage to hydrogen storage might happen around 2050 in accordance to the low-carbon transition progress.

Exploring the green and low-carbon development pathway for an energy-intensive industrial park in China

Energy-intensive industrial parks (IPs) with the distinct characteristics of high energy consumption, substantial greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and huge pollution, are facing enormous pressure to realize the synergistic mitigation of GHG and air pollutants. Exploring the green and low-carbon transformation of energy-intensive IPs is urgently required to achieve the dual strategies of “carbon peaking and carbon neutrality” and “Beautiful China”. Taking a typical energy-intensive industrial park (IP) in Henan Province—the Red Flag Cannel Industrial Park (RFCP) as the research object, an integrated evaluation framework including multi-objective optimization model alongside the synergistic mitigation potential of carbon and air pollutant emissions, was established in the energy-intensive IPs. Five scenarios were designed to quantify the GHG and air pollutant mitigation potential, while synergistic emission reduction control effects were evaluated under four measures of industrial structure adjustment, energy structure adjustment, energy efficiency improvement, and industrial symbiosis. The scenario analysis indicates that the integrated scenario (S4) shows the most significant emission reduction potential by 2030. Compared to the baseline scenario (S0), the GHG emission reduction is 11.66 Mt CO2eq (53% reduction rate), and the emission reduction rate of air pollutants ranges from 38% to 69% in S4. The findings indicate that industrial structure adjustment and energy structure adjustment are the primary measures for reducing GHG and air pollutants of IPs. Additionally, the evaluation of synergistic effect demonstrates that industrial structure adjustment shows the most significant synergistic effect on GHG and air pollutant by 2030. Finally, some policy recommendations regarding the transformation direction of energy-intensive IPs were proposed. This study will provide valuable references for the green and low-carbon development of energy-intensive IPs.

Uncertainties in the technological pathway towards low-carbon freight transport under carbon neutral target in China

The freight transport sector is a critical sector for achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality targets. However, there are many uncertainties regarding the e-commerce development, promotion speed of low-carbon measures, and freight transport technologies. Existing research lacks considering the multiple uncertainties on the low-carbon technological pathway for freight transport. Consequently, a bottom-up National Energy Technology-Transport (NET-Transport) model is developed based on the principle of cost minimization for optimizing the low-carbon transition pathway of the freight transport. The study comprehensively evaluates the sustainable technological pathway, energy saving and carbon emission reduction of various measures, including shifting to low-carbon transport modes, improving transport energy efficiency and promoting clean energy. Results show that the freight transport demand will reach 24.1–60.5 trillion ton-kilometers by 2060. CO2 emission would peak at 0.8–1.0 billion tons in 2030–2041 if the breakthrough technologies are not developed on a large scale. Carbon neutrality in the freight sector is difficult to achieve by relying on the low-carbon transition of the energy system alone, with 57–555 million tons of remaining CO2 emissions in 2060. The advanced technologies have significant effects on energy saving and emission reduction. The research, development, and application of hydrogen-fueled heavy trucks should be accelerated.

Distribution network tariff design: Facilitate flexible resource under uncertain future energy scenarios

The uncertainty embedded in low-carbon transition pathways and future energy scenarios will reshape the way of distribution network planning and operation. Flexible solutions provided by flexible resources could help distribution network operators (DNOs) to reduce network costs and risks under uncertainties. However, the current tariff paradigm neglects such contributions, which cannot generate sufficient incentives to facilitate flexible resource development. To tackle this issue, this paper first introduces an improved price control method that caps DNOs' revenue while encouraging DNOs' sustainable investment under uncertainties. A bi-level planning model is then proposed to determine the optimal investment plan and evaluate the risk reduction effect by scheduling flexible loads. Finally, a novel pricing method is proposed to derive network tariffs for existing and potential flexible loads based on their contributions to risk reduction and demonstrated in a test system. The result shows a 24% network cost reduction given by 6% DNO risk compensation rate, and 0%–43% and 1%–22% network tariff reductions for existing and future flexible demands, respectively. This evidence proves the proposed method can incentivize DNOs to well manage risks, meanwhile promote the connection and engagement of flexible loads. Regulators and DNOs are recommended to review the existing pricing framework, enhance risk management in price regulation, and explore suitable tariff designs or business models for flexible loads to cope with future uncertainties through flexibility.

Managing the low carbon transition pathways through solid waste electricity

The potential of solid waste as an energy source is clear, owing to its wide availability and renewable properties, which provide a critical answer for energy security. This can be especially effective in reducing the environmental impact of fossil fuels. Countries that rely heavily on coal should examine alternatives such as electricity from solid waste to provide a constant energy supply while also contributing to atmospheric restoration. In this regards, Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) is used for simulation the entire energy system in Pakistan and forecasted its capital cost and future CO2 emissions in relation to the use of renewable and fossil fuel resources under the different growth rates of solid waste projects like 20%, 30% and 40% for the study period 2023–2053. The results revealed that, 1402.97 TWh units of energy are generated to meet the total energy demand of 1193.93 TWh until 2053. The share of solid waste based electricity in total energy mix is increasing from a mere 0.81% in 2023 to around 9.44% by 2053 under the 20% growth rate, which then increase to 39.67% by 2053 under the 30% growth rate and further increases to 78.33% by 2053 under the 40% growth rate. It is suggested that 40% growth rate for solid waste based electricity projects is suitable for Pakistan until 2053 because under this condition, renewable sources contributes 95.2% and fossil fuels contributed 4.47% in the total energy mix of Pakistan. Hence, CO2 emissions are reduced from 148.26 million metric tons to 35.46 million metric tons until 2053 but capital cost is increased from 13.23 b$ in 2023 to 363.11 b$ by 2053.

Low-carbon transition pathways of power systems for Guangdong–Hongkong–Macau region in China

Nuclear, offshore-wind, and imported electricity are essential for decarbonizing the GHM power system. Achieving carbon neutrality in the GHM power system by 2050 requires an average annual expense of 21.8 billion USD.

Unfolding low-carbon reorientation in a declining industry: A contextual analysis of changing company strategies in UK oil refining (1990–2023)

The oil refining decarbonisation literature makes important analyses of technical and economic dimensions of low-carbon transition pathways but pays less attention to the contexts and strategic considerations that shape the practical implementation of low-carbon technologies by refineries, including investment decisions. To address this understudied issue, this paper makes a longitudinal analysis of changing external pressures and company response strategies in the UK's refining industry from 1990, when climate change rose on socio-political agendas, to 2023. We apply the Triple Embeddedness Framework, a five-phase model of industry reorientation, to analyse the unfolding low-carbon transition process over five successive periods (1990–2000, 2000–2008, 2008–2015, 2015–2019, 2019–2023). Using information from policy documents, reports by industry associations, company annual reports (including financial reporting), academic and practitioner publications, and 24 interviews with academics and industry experts, our analysis finds that the UK's refining industry moved from inaction and incremental change in the first period, to some exploration of alternatives in the second period, and back to incremental change in the third period (after the 2008 financial crisis). In the fourth period, refineries more seriously started to explore low-carbon technologies, which they began to deploy in the fifth period, notably carbon capture and storage (CCS) and low-carbon hydrogen. The paper analyses and explains this non-linear reorientation trajectory and elucidates why refineries have embarked on significant low-carbon reorientation despite long-term decline in the wider industry.

Coal power plants transition based on joint planning of power and central heating sectors: A case study of China

Coal power plants are crucial in both the power sector and central heating sector and also emit large amount of carbon dioxide. Existing research on coal power plants transformation mainly focused on their role in the power sector, with insufficient attention paid to their heat and power cogeneration capabilities. To address this gap, this paper proposes a long-term expansion joint optimization model for power sector and central heating sector incorporating the competitive technologies in both sectors, which is used to obtain the optimal low-carbon transition pathway of power sector and central heating sector, and analyse the pathway of coal power plants. China is selected for a case study for its largest scale of existing coal power plants in the world and urgent need of decarbonization. Compared to the scenario only considering electricity generation function from coal power plants to power sector, another scenario also considering the heating production to central heating sectors brings less than 5% increase in their remaining capacity, whilst results in significant changes in their regional distribution. Proportion of heat and power cogeneration of coal power plants in the heat generation structure is expected to increase first to 80% in 2030 and decrease to 58% in 2055.

Implication of electrification and power decarbonization in low-carbon transition pathways for China, the U.S. and the EU

Electrification and power decarbonization are essential components of low-carbon energy transition, however, the combined effects of these two factors on CO2 emissions have not been comprehensively understood, especially with decomposition analyses for key regions. We present an extended Kaya identity to explicitly express power decarbonization (ACI) and electrification (Re) factors and analyze their combined effects on CO2 emissions in China, the U.S., and the EU between 1997 and 2020 using Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) model. We further develop a scenario framework to analyze the required Re and ACI to achieve specific climate targets in 2030, as well as emission levels from various scenarios of these two factors. The results indicate that the combined effects of electrification and power decarbonization played an important role in carbon-mitigation in China, the U.S., and the EU during 1997–2020, driving down CO2 emissions respectively by 0.9, 0.5, and 0.4 Gt during 1997–2007, by 2.6, 0.9, and 0.5 Gt during 2007–2017, and by 0.6, 0.4, and 0.3 Gt during 2017–2020. Further decomposition analyses reveal heterogeneity in the driving factors of electrification and power decarbonization evolutions across the three regions. Climate target scenarios signify that features of historical energy transition pathways may be insufficient for the U.S. and the EU to achieve their 2030 emission targets aligned with the 1.5 °C pathways. Suggestions on accelerating electrification process in those two regions toward their 2030 climate targets are proposed from the decomposition and scenario analyses' result.

Low-carbon development pathways for resource-based cities in China under the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.

Resource-based cities are important strategic bases for securing resources in China and have made great contributions to the country's economic development. Long-term extensive resource development has made resource-based cities an important region constraining China from achieving comprehensive low-carbon development. Therefore, it is of great significance to explore the low-carbon transition path of resource-based cities for their energy greening, industrial transformation, and high-quality economic development. This study compiled the CO2 emission inventory of resource-based cities in China from 2005 to 2017, explored the contribution to CO2 emissions from three perspectives (driver, industry, and city), and predicted the peak of CO2 emissions in resource-based cities. The results show that resource-based cities contribute 18.4% of the country's GDP and emit 44.4% of the country's CO2 and that economic growth and CO2 emissions have not yet been decoupled. The per capita CO2 emissions and emission intensity of resource-based cities are 1.8 times and 2.4 times higher than the national average, respectively. Economic growth and energy intensity are the biggest drivers and main inhibitors of CO2 emissions growth. Industrial restructuring has become the biggest inhibitor of CO2 emissions growth. Based on the different resource endowments, industrial structures, and socio-economic development levels of resource-based cities, we propose differentiated low-carbon transition pathways. This study can provide references for cities to develop differentiated low-carbon development paths under the "double carbon" target.

Long-term multi-sector low-carbon transition pathway planning based on modified-grandfathering emission allocation method: A case study of China

Strict climate goals require a rapid reduction of carbon emissions across society. It is a considerable challenge to design decarbonization pathways considering co-operation in energy and carbon emissions across multiple sectors simultaneously. In order to obtain the decarbonization pathway for the whole society, this paper establishes a long-term multi-sector low-carbon transition pathway planning model. Besides inter-sectoral energy supply and demand, this study fully considers the allocation of carbon emissions quotas among different sectors by modified-grandfathering method, which takes into account both equity and efficiency principles. The decarbonization targets of different sectors, corresponding mitigation pathways and energy consumption can be calculated. China is taken as a case study. Results show that China's total energy consumption peaks at 5 billion tces around 2030, then falls below 4 billion in 2060, with the proportion of primary electricity and other clean energy reaching over 50 percent. Besides, the realisation of carbon neutralisation in China depends heavily on the improvement of carbon capture and storage (CCS) and end-use electrification rate. Moreover, the study of different quota allocation ways shows that the increase in the contribution rate of power system mitigation leads to the reduction of the total low-carbon transition costs, which also aggravates administrative difficulties.

Equitable low-carbon transition pathways for California’s oil extraction

Equitable low-carbon transition pathways for California’s oil extraction

Equitable low-carbon transition pathways for California's oil extraction - Data

Equitable low-carbon transition pathways for California's oil extraction - Data

Integrated Assessment of Economic Supply and Environmental Effects of Biomass Co-Firing in Coal Power Plants: A Case Study of Jiangsu, China

The technical supply potential of biomass and the associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are widely studied in the literature. However, relatively few studies have examined the role of biomass co-firing for future electricity in China by integratedly considering the economic supply potential and GHG effects. To fill this gap, we choose the Jiangsu Province in China as a case study and build up a partial equilibrium model with multiple agricultural commodities. Using this model combined with a life cycle assessment, we jointly determine the economic potential of the biomass supply for a biomass co-firing purpose and social benefits, including the agricultural producers’ surplus and GHG mitigation potential. The simulation incorporates the county-level biomass market of various crop residues as well as endogenous crop prices and transportation costs. We find that 0.7–12.5 M MT of residue-based biomass are economically viable for co-firing in coal-based power plants (up to 20%) at biomass prices between USD 50 and USD 100/MT. The net GHG savings achieved at these biomass prices are from 3.2 to 59 M MTCO2e. Our findings indicate that biomass co-firing with coal in power plants would be a feasible low-carbon energy transition pathway if the biomass price is above USD 50/MT. In addition to biomass prices, other factors such as crop yields, production costs of residues, and transportation costs are found to be impactful on the economic viability of biomass and GHG savings. Our results can inform policy to develop localized carbon reduction strategies in provinces with abundant biomass resources and a high share of coal-fired electricity.

Low-carbon technology diffusion and economic growth of China: an evolutionary general equilibrium framework

The thorough transition of energy system is required to achieve the Paris Agreement goal. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are a common tool for estimating the energy transition pathway and the impact of low-carbon policies on economic growth. However, CGE models encounter challenges on modeling diffusion of new technologies. This study proposed a novel evolutionary dynamic general equilibrium model to capture the nonlinear, path-dependent and S-shaped technology diffusion process, and examined the low-carbon transition pathway of power sector and its impact on economic growth of China. We found that imposing a moderate carbon tax and avoiding the over-reliance on coal-fired power could achieve the near-zero emissions of power sector, avoid the large economic loss and hasten the economic growth in the long term. The evolutionary framework may be useful for developing the next-generation model, particularly for simulating the diffusion of new technologies, and their structural effects on economic dynamics.

Potential for Transition to Low-Carbon Urban Road Transport in Developing Countries: Insights from Literature

It is projected that if no actions are taken to cut down the current rate of global warming, global temperatures will rise to irreversible levels between the years 2030 and 2050. Consequently, climate-induced risks to health, livelihoods, food and water supply/security, economic development, and human security will increase. However, although many efforts have been put in the developed nations to enhance sustainability in cities through the development of a Low-carbon transportation system, the situation is different in the developing nations. These countries are, for some reason, reluctant to adopt the concept of Low-carbon cities. For example, in Kenya, despite the evident climate threat associated with rising urban carbon emissions in the country, very little action to curb the emissions is observed both at individual and government levels. This is especially so in the transport sector. Therefore, it is critical that suitable low-carbon transition pathways are identified and adopted in the sector in order to cut down the emission levels. Although the transition to low-carbon transport is faced with a myriad of challenges, transitions bring about an enormousness of environmental and societal benefits through the development of environmentally sustainable systems. Policy instruments are governance tools that can be used to enhance the environmental sustainability of urban transport options. However, climate change targets cannot be realistically attained by a single policy instrument. Instead, research indicates the need for more integrative and strong policy packages that can stimulate low-carbon transitions. In view of this, there is a clear need for the envisioning of sustainable future cities and potential transition pathways towards the realisation of these futures, as it is considered advantageous to various disciplines. This study provides information that can be used to develop an integrated urban transportation system that is environmentally sustainable and which efficiently incorporates all modes of transport; based on the theory of transitional management

Stakeholder engagement and decarbonization pathways: Meeting the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic

Climate change is an extremely complex challenge characterized by its systemic nature and deep uncertainties. Thus, finding solutions requires a continuing and constructive dialogue between the research community and a wide range of stakeholders from governments, non-governmental organizations, civil society, international organizations, industry, businesses and financial institutions. The ENGAGE project (https://www.engage-climate.org/) is advancing knowledge co-production through an iterative process of stakeholder engagement with two main streams: (i) stakeholder co-design and assessment of global decarbonization pathways and (ii) stakeholder dialogues on national policies and pathways. Both the global and national stakeholder processes are designed to inform multiple project activities, including: conceptualization of feasibility and assessing the feasibility of decarbonization policies and strategies; decarbonization pathway development using integrated assessment models and considering both feasibility and equity; and assessment of the relative importance of climate change impacts vis-à-vis potential co-benefits. With the start of the COVID-19 pandemic 6 months after the beginning of the project, all of the stakeholder engagement activities had to be organized as online events. Between March 2020 and April 2022, 5 online workshops were organized, two at the global level and 3 at the regional/national level. This paper documents how the challenges of effectively engaging stakeholders in a co-design and dialogue process in an online setting have been met through a process of evaluation and learning that led to the introduction of new approaches and tools to support an inclusive exploration and development of low-carbon transition pathways. We show that a combination of interactive visualizations, open channel surveys and moderated breakout groups are particularly useful tools for online stakeholder engagement. The learning that has taken place through the use of these tools is demonstrated with reference to both the research team (e.g., learning about stakeholders' views on the feasibility of decarbonization pathways) and the stakeholders (e.g., learning about experiences in other countries in dealing with the challenges of decarbonization). The results of using these tools have been used within the project in the design of new decarbonization pathways using integrated assessment models, in the development of a framework for feasibility assessment and in increased attention to socio-economic drivers of change. We conclude that despite several advantages of online engagement, such as the expanded geographical coverage and reduced CO2 emissions, the need to keep online meetings short means that important elements of face-to-face meetings cannot be included. Online activities cannot completely replace physical meetings when dealing with complex issues such as climate change.

Exploring the low-carbon transition pathway of China's construction industry under carbon-neutral target: A socio-technical system transition theory perspective

The carbon emissions growth in the construction industry hinders the achievement of global carbon-neutral target, especially in China. Studies suggest that developing low-carbon technologies is an effective means of achieving the low-carbon transition (LCT) in the construction industry. However, these studies ignore the fact that the LCT is a complex and systemic issue that needs to consider the interaction of technical and non-technical factors. Thus, based on the socio-technical system transition theory, this study identified the influencing factors and constructs a dynamics model to simulate the dynamic changes of the LCT in China's construction industry under different scenarios. The results showed that multi-level factors coordinated to drive the LCT of the construction industry. Environmental factors played a weak role and the effectiveness of government intervention decreased with the transition process. On the contrary, technological and market factors were indispensable drivers and especially played a dominant role during the later stages of the transition. Finally, the LCT pathway of China's construction industry was proposed based on the results. These findings expand the boundary of theoretical research on industrial transition and provide a decision-making reference for the advancement of international carbon-neutral work.

Low-Carbon Transition Pathway Planning of Regional Power Systems with Electricity-Hydrogen Synergy

Hydrogen energy leads us in an important direction in the development of clean energy, and the comprehensive utilization of hydrogen energy is crucial for the low-carbon transformation of the power sector. In this paper, the demand for hydrogen energy in various fields is predicted based on the support vector regression algorithm, which can be converted into an equivalent electrical load when it is all produced from water electrolysis. Then, the investment costs of power generators and hydrogen energy equipment are forecast considering uncertainty. Furthermore, a planning model is established with the forecast data, initial installed capacity and targets for carbon emission reduction as inputs, and the installed capacity as well as share of various power supply and annual carbon emissions as outputs. Taking Gansu Province of China as an example, the changes of power supply structure and carbon emissions under different scenarios are analysed. It can be found that hydrogen production through water electrolysis powered by renewable energy can reduce carbon emissions but will increase the demand for renewable energy generators. Appropriate planning of hydrogen storage can reduce the overall investment cost and promote a low carbon transition of the power system.

Feasibility analysis of achieving net-zero emissions in China's power sector before 2050 based on ideal available pathways

The decarbonization of the power sector is crucial for achieving the dual‑carbon target in China. Several low-carbon transition pathways have already been proposed. This study develops the CAS-power bottom-up model and a scenario matrix to examine the feasibility of achieving a net-zero emissions power sector before 2050 in China's power sector. Then explore available strategies mix and the corresponding cost changes in different carbon neutrality years. Additionally, the method in this study can be applied to calculate carbon neutrality year and related transition costs. The results show that, first, China's power sector can successfully achieve carbon neutrality before 2050 and 2045 at the earliest. Second, net-zero emissions need to utilize a flexible combination of various mitigation strategies. Among mitigation strategies, renewable energy is indispensable and vital in contributing to a net-zero emission power system. Enhancing the implementation of clean nuclear energy is better than CCS to advance net-zero emissions time when renewable energy strategy is utilized on a large-scale basis, especially in deeply decarbonization situations. Third, the earlier net-zero emissions are achieved, the higher the total cost will be. Last, under the same neutrality year, the total cost will be the highest if carbon capture and storage (CCS) is massively utilized, and renewable energy and storage-related costs account for the majority during the low-carbon transition process. This study suggests that a flexible and rational mix of policies is essential to achieve decarbonization in the power sector and policymakers should constantly adjust incentive options to adapt to changes in mitigation strategies at different stages.