Coal power plants transition based on joint planning of power and central heating sectors: A case study of China

Abstract

Coal power plants are crucial in both the power sector and central heating sector and also emit large amount of carbon dioxide. Existing research on coal power plants transformation mainly focused on their role in the power sector, with insufficient attention paid to their heat and power cogeneration capabilities. To address this gap, this paper proposes a long-term expansion joint optimization model for power sector and central heating sector incorporating the competitive technologies in both sectors, which is used to obtain the optimal low-carbon transition pathway of power sector and central heating sector, and analyse the pathway of coal power plants. China is selected for a case study for its largest scale of existing coal power plants in the world and urgent need of decarbonization. Compared to the scenario only considering electricity generation function from coal power plants to power sector, another scenario also considering the heating production to central heating sectors brings less than 5% increase in their remaining capacity, whilst results in significant changes in their regional distribution. Proportion of heat and power cogeneration of coal power plants in the heat generation structure is expected to increase first to 80% in 2030 and decrease to 58% in 2055.