Low-carbon Pathways Research Articles

Quantitative relationship between low-carbon pathways and system transition costs based on a multi-period and multi-regional energy infrastructure planning approach: A case study of China

Low-carbon transition would trigger huge costs from reshaping complex energy systems due to large-scale renewable energy investment and early retirement of fossil-energy infrastructure. Reducing costs is challenging, because multiple transition pathways, comprised of massive transition policies and their schedule and pace, would lead to variation on system transition costs, despite achieving the same transition degree. In this paper, we aim to explore a proper pathway with lower costs towards the same transition degree, whilst previous studies focus on impacts of achieving different transition targets. A multi-regional, multi-period, infrastructure-based model is applied to quantify system transition costs, and China is taken as a case study. Scenarios, describing representative pathways to the same transition degree, are designed to establish quantitative relationship between pathways and costs. Results show that, for coal-dominated countries, approaching marginal cost balance of deep electrification and intensive non-fossil power penetration would lead to lower costs. An improper pathway would raise system transition costs up by 17% than a proper pathway we present, whilst this proper pathway would still lead to 35% more costs than the reference scenario. Furthermore, specific infrastructure deployment recommendations are discussed to make the pathway feasible and executive.

Low-carbon development via greening global value chains:A case study of Belarus: Low-carbon development via green GVC

The rise of global value chains (GCVs) has seen the transfer of carbon emissions embodied in every step of international trade. Building a coordinated, inclusive and green GCV can be an effective and efficient way to achieve carbon emissions mitigation targets for countries that participate highly in GCVs. In this paper, we first describe the energy consumption as well as the territorial and consumption-based carbon emissions of Belarus and its regions from 2010 to 2017. The results show that Belarus has a relatively clean energy structure with 75% of Belarus' energy consumption coming from imported natural gas. The 'chemical, rubber and plastic products' sector has expanded significantly over the past few years; its territorial-based emissions increased 10-fold from 2011 to 2014, with the 'food processing' sector displaying the largest increase in consumption-based emissions. An analysis of regional emissions accounts shows that there is significant regional heterogeneity in Belarus with Mogilev, Gomel and Vitebsk having more energy-intensive manufacturing industries. We then analysed the changes in Belarus' international trade as well as its emission impacts. The results show that Belarus has changed from a net carbon exporter in 2011 to a net carbon importer in 2014. Countries along the Belt and Road Initiative, such as Russia, China, Ukraine, Poland and Kazakhstan, are the main trading partners and carbon emission importers/exporters for Belarus. 'Construction' and 'chemical, rubber and plastic products' are two major emission-importing sectors in Belarus, while 'electricity' and 'ferrous metals' are the primary emission-exporting sectors. Possible low-carbon development pathways are discussed for Belarus through the perspectives of global supply and the value chain.

Early adaptation to heat waves and future reduction of air-conditioning energy use in Paris

Some actions intended to adapt to climate change may do more harm than good, especially when they consume energy, making it more difficult to shift to decarbonized energy, or when, in meeting the needs of one group of people, they increase the vulnerability of others. Heat wave risk provides a typical example: air conditioning (AC) equipment may trigger large energy consumption and worsen outdoor heat stress. Alternative adaptation strategies exist, but it is not clear whether they can prevent the massive use of AC. Here, with an interdisciplinary modeling platform, taking Paris as a case study, we provide a first quantified analysis of the efficiency of adaptation strategies (large scale urban greening, building insulation policy, and generalized behavioral changes in AC use) in reducing future potential AC need. We find that even ambitious strategies do not appear sufficient to totally replace AC and ensure thermal comfort, under a median climate change scenario. They can, however, reduce AC energy use by half during heat waves and compensate for the heat released to the outdoor environment. Our results show that adaptation actions, implemented early, may play a key role if we are to remain on a low-carbon pathway.

Low-carbon development via greening global value chains: a case study of Belarus.

The rise of global value chains (GCVs) has seen the transfer of carbon emissions embodied in every step of international trade. Building a coordinated, inclusive and green GCV can be an effective and efficient way to achieve carbon emissions mitigation targets for countries that participate highly in GCVs. In this paper, we first describe the energy consumption as well as the territorial and consumption-based carbon emissions of Belarus and its regions from 2010 to 2017. The results show that Belarus has a relatively clean energy structure with 75% of Belarus' energy consumption coming from imported natural gas. The 'chemical, rubber and plastic products' sector has expanded significantly over the past few years; its territorial-based emissions increased 10-fold from 2011 to 2014, with the 'food processing' sector displaying the largest increase in consumption-based emissions. An analysis of regional emissions accounts shows that there is significant regional heterogeneity in Belarus with Mogilev, Gomel and Vitebsk having more energy-intensive manufacturing industries. We then analysed the changes in Belarus' international trade as well as its emission impacts. The results show that Belarus has changed from a net carbon exporter in 2011 to a net carbon importer in 2014. Countries along the Belt and Road Initiative, such as Russia, China, Ukraine, Poland and Kazakhstan, are the main trading partners and carbon emission importers/exporters for Belarus. 'Construction' and 'chemical, rubber and plastic products' are two major emission-importing sectors in Belarus, while 'electricity' and 'ferrous metals' are the primary emission-exporting sectors. Possible low-carbon development pathways are discussed for Belarus through the perspectives of global supply and the value chain.

Low-impact land use pathways to deep decarbonization of electricity

A growing number of jurisdictions are passing ambitious clean energy policies. Yet few studies have accounted for natural and agricultural land impacts of low-carbon pathways and how environmental siting constraints affect electricity costs and technology choices. To address this gap, we developed an integrated land-energy planning framework to examine the land use trade-offs of renewable energy development required to achieve ambitious clean energy goals, using the state of California as a case study. Using high-resolution ecological and agricultural datasets for 11 Western U.S. states, we modeled environmentally-constrained onshore wind, solar photovoltaic, and geothermal potential and used an electricity capacity expansion model to build generation portfolios for 2050. Here we show that California can meet its targets, but the technology mix, spatial build-out, and system costs are sensitive to land protections and availability of out-of-state renewable resources. Results suggest that failure to consider land availability in energy planning could increase uncertainties, environmental impacts, and risks in meeting subnational climate targets.

Decennary spatial pattern changes and scaling effects of CO2 emissions of urban agglomerations in China

With fast urbanization and economic growth in recent years, China's urban agglomerations (UAs) thrive, at the cost of surging CO2 emission. Although UAs have been individually examined for their CO2 emissions, a nation-wide investigation and comparison of the UAs in China is lacking. To reveal the low-carbon development performance of the major UAs in China, we identify the clustering patterns of CO2 emissions of 14 UAs using the spatial autocorrelation analysis on city-level CO2 emissions and investigate the scaling effect among the cities within UAs. Results show that from 2005 to 2015, UAs in eastern and central China were high-high (the center and the surroundings featured high levels of CO2 emission) clustered in total emissions, whereas low-low clustered in per-unit-GDP emission. In western and southern China, UAs like Chengdu-Chongqing showed a high-low clustering pattern in total emissions but a low-low clustering pattern in per-capita emission. Scaling effects behind the emission patterns are different; the Yangtze-River-Delta, the Beibu-Gulf and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao UAs were more efficient at emission reduction with the cities' rising scales, while cities of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei UA and the Chengdu-Chongqing UA performed less efficiently. Low-carbon pathways are discussed based on spatial patterns and scaling effects of UAs' emissions.

Analyzing the effects of uncertainties on the modelling of low-carbon energy system pathways

Decarbonization is an important goal of the future energy transition, but its modelling is also subject to several uncertainties. Here we investigate the impacts of such uncertainties through analyzing the overall performance and operation of a modelled national energy system undergoing deep decarbonization. Finland was chosen as a case, as it intends to become carbon-neutral already by 2035. Uncertainties in costs, energy consumption, and renewable resource potential and how they affect the operation of a modelled energy system is analyzed using a Monte Carlo method linked to a national energy system model with hourly resolution. The importance of the different uncertainties for the overall system indicators such as annual cost, CO2 emissions, and reliability are assessed. The impacts on different modelled low-carbon pathways are compared. For the Finnish case study, the projected energy consumption seems to be the most important uncertainty factor for the future energy system scenarios (e.g. for the CO2 emissions), followed by the production of wind power and the potential of biomass. The results indicate that addressing input uncertainties will be highly relevant for energy system modelling when pursuing decarbonization. None of the modelled cost-optimal decarbonization pathways stands out as fully resilient in this respect.

Illuminating homes with LEDs in India: Rapid market creation towards low-carbon technology transition in a developing country

Near-term climate change mitigation calls for technological innovation and widespread implementation of appropriate technologies. This is salient in emerging economies, where impending socio-economic and infrastructural transitions hold immense potential for locking-in low-carbon development pathways. Yet, little is understood about how developing countries can scale appropriate technology transitions, given their often underdeveloped technological innovation capabilities and supporting infrastructures and finances. This paper examines a recent, rapid, and ongoing transition of India's lighting market to light emitting diode (LED) technology, from a negligible market share to LEDs becoming the dominant lighting products within five years, despite the country's otherwise limited visibility in the global solid-state lighting industry. Annual sales of LED bulbs grew more than 130 times to over 650 million bulbs between 2014–2018, with over 30 billion kWh of estimated annual energy savings. Focusing on this striking story of technology transition, this paper analyzes India's LED uptake using semi-structured interviews and drawing on the technology innovation systems literature. The results show that the success of transition coexists with its share of shortfalls, and that there is an important tension between the lowering of upfront costs of low-carbon technologies and the efforts to enhance domestic technological capabilities. The paper discusses the results for the Indian LED case and emphasizes the importance of consistent strategic action taking into account all (and not limited) parts of the technology innovation system, while also providing insights on how mitigation technologies can be developed and deployed in developing countries.

Sustainable energy pathways for land transport in Nigeria

We used a bottom-up optimisation model to explore the energy system implications of five alternative policy pathways for the Nigerian transport sector. Our study considered fuel switching, improved fuel economy, modal shifting, improved logistics, and carbon tax for the period 2010–2050. Results show that the alternative pathways will reduce energy demand and CO2 emissions significantly. Particularly, we found that improved vehicle fuel economy and a carbon tax can lower Nigeria's CO2 emissions by 42.8% and 26.9% respectively, in 2050 when compared with the reference case. Additionally, low-carbon pathways will enhance air quality, energy security, and the productive use of energy.

Uncertainties in macroeconomic assessments of low-carbon transition pathways - The case of the European iron and steel industry

The climate targets agreed in Paris 2015 render deep decarbonization of energy- and emission-intensive industries crucial. Policy makers are interested in the macroeconomic consequences of such decarbonization pathways and often rely on integrated modelling studies. However, the underlying modelling assumptions and uncertainties often remain unquestioned or invisible, although they may govern the models' results. For the case of a zero-process emission pathway of the European iron and steel industry, we demonstrate how different assumptions on different “layers” of uncertainty influence results. We show that effects strongly depend on technology choice, prevailing macroeconomic states as well as regional characteristics. The underlying socio-economic development and the climate policy trajectory seem to play a less important role. Particularly, we find that the choice of model, i.e. which macroeconomic theory strand it arises from, influences the sign and magnitude of macroeconomic effects and thus should be well understood in terms of appropriate interpretations by both modelers and policy makers. We emphasize that model assumptions should be transparent, results sought as to be robust across a range of possible contexts, and presented together with the conditions under which they are valid. To that end, co-design and co-production in research would support its relevance and applicability.

Steel in a circular economy: Global implications of a green shift in China

Abstract China is increasingly known for its ambitions towards an ‘ecological civilisation’ and a circular economy. Our article assesses the implications of an accelerated shift towards steel recycling in China. Given the relevance of steel for development worldwide as well as its environmental intensity, any such shift is likely to have implications for competitiveness in China and beyond. Recent findings suggest that China could take advantage of an increasing availability of obsolete steel scrap in the coming decades, moving towards more circular, and potentially greener, steel production. We assess such industrial restructuring from an economic perspective and address the competitiveness of China relative to other developing and industrialised regions. The analysis uses a novel global economy-wide modelling framework (ENGAGE-materials) to assess the aggregate and sector-level impacts of different scrap use options in China in the 2019–2030 time frame. The results show moderate GDP gains for China of cumulated USD 589 billion in GDP gains by 2030 despite a replacement of primary steel capacity. A more comprehensive industrial policy mix aimed at improved recycling practices and more adaptive downstream sectors could increase gains to USD 819 billion. The international implications are mixed, with losses for iron ore producers (Australia, Brazil and India) and gains for most developing countries benefiting from lower steel prices. Another result is an increasing demand for coal in electricity production if such a shift wouldn’t be aligned with an accelerated energy transition towards low carbon pathways. We discuss policy implications of such alignment, potential co-benefits, and a need for green international partnerships.

An optimized low-carbon production planning model for power industry in coal-dependent regions - A case study of Shandong, China

Due to the coal-dominated power generation structure, Shandong is facing severe power source structural contradiction and tremendous pressure to reduce carbon emissions. Therefore, considering the elimination of coal power overcapacity and introduction of carbon capture and storage technology, this study established an optimization model to identify the low-carbon production pathways for Shandong’s power industry. The results indicated that nuclear power, wind power and complementary energy power would be the overriding clean energy power generation technologies. As to coal power, less than 300 MW-level generating units would be eliminated totally at the end of 2021, then followed by 300 MW-level generating units. And no doubt, 1000 MW-level generating units would become the primary coal-fired power generation technology gradually. Moreover, in 2021, clean energy power would account for about 52.33% of the total installed capacity, surpassing coal power for the first time and undertaking the main task of power generation. Hence, while striving to develop clean energy, those acquired achievements refer to elimination of coal power overcapacity should be further consolidated. Furthermore, when promoting carbon capture and storage technology, governments should not only make a trade-off analysis between its cost and environmental benefit, but also take the provincial actual situation and economic affordability into account.

Lessons from Bali for small-scale biogas development in Indonesia

Being dependent on fossil fuels, Indonesia faces challenges in incorporating renewables into its energy supply, which hampers to achieve the NDC target of 26% emission reduction. We investigate how biogas could contribute to a low-carbon transition pathway as cooking fuel, especially through the national mid-term development planning. Using mixed-methods and stakeholder engagement, we conducted transdisciplinary research to advance knowledge on biogas in Indonesia. We used Q-methodology to explore the ambiguity around biogas developments leading us to identify three “perspectives” regarding value on biogas: technology, co-benefits, and independence. Quantitative research using the E3ME model identified economic benefits of biogas, but also an increase in LPG use due to unstable feedstock availability (hence intermittent biogas production), which could cause a potential increase of national CO2 emissions. Those and other barriers including ill-adapted technology to local conditions and barriers to financing installations require sound policies to be overcome, focusing on co-benefits of biogas.

The hydrogen roadmap in the Portuguese energy system – Developing the P2G case

The planning and implementation of the Portuguese energy transition towards a decarbonized, energy secure and more sustainable economy is providing driving forces for significant challenges and opportunities on a country basis. The emergence of hydrogen (H2) within low-carbon pathways in the energy system requires to deal with the complexity of H2 carrier in its relationship with energy sources and end use sectors. In the frame of mainland Portugal energy system, different value chain configurations were analysed and assessed using energy analysis, lifecycle thinking and impacts assessment, as well as the technology and costs analysis, within an approach to the Hydrogen Economy. The Portuguese Roadmap for H2 was developed taking such an approach and therein the evolution of the selected value chains along time. Among these, ‘power-to-gas’ (P2G) combined with the gas grid is given an in-depth focus, as it was prioritized as the top value chain to answer the research question: how sustainable would be the hydrogen production and end use in Portugal within the P2G value chain? This P2G value chain with a particular focus on heating applications is discussed on the basis of the technology options and technology maturity identified in each main stage of the value chain, using analytical dimensions such as the energy efficiency and greenhouse gas emissions, among other impact categories, followed by a sensitivity analysis. The obtained results enable to show how case-sensitive that approach is and that a multi-decisional process is required to assist the planning stage.

Modelling national, provincial and city-level low-carbon energy transformation pathways

Earlier emission peak and higher reduction rate after the peak are crucial for China's domestic low-carbon energy transformations and the 2 °C global climate target. However, much remains to be resolved concerning long-term sectoral and regional coping strategies. In this study, we developed a spatial downscaling framework to identify the roles played by different provinces and sectors in promoting early emission peak, and the spatiotemporal variations of city-level reduction potentials for the building sector by coupling an integrated assessment model with openly available information. Simulations show that peaking emissions five years earlier means an additional 12.5 Gt CO2 emission cut during 2015–2035 and building sector needs to increase renewable penetration to 22% and further improve emission efficiency by 12%, which are both greater than other end use sectors. More developed eastern regions would peak earlier than national target and some central cities are expected to double their per capita building emissions. While for the less developed northern and western regions to peak on time it is necessary that the gap of CO2 emission intensity between these cities and national average narrow down from 9.8t/thousand RMB in 2020 to 5.9t/thousand RMB in 2030.

Modelling stakeholder agency to investigate sustainable charcoal markets in Kenya

As cities in East Africa keep growing, so too will demand for charcoal – the region’s preferred urban fuel – placing increasing pressure on rural landscapes where it is produced. How can charcoal production and supply be made sustainable? What are the implications of sustainable charcoal policies and practices for achieving a low-carbon pathway and protecting the environment? This paper presents case study research focusing on Kitui County, one of the main charcoal production areas in Kenya. Risk and uncertainty of sustainable charcoal policies in Kitui were assessed using complementary methods of stakeholder workshops, informant interviews and agent-based modelling. This interdisciplinary approach combined policy research and simulation modelling, where local perspectives and data were included directly in the modelling. These methods facilitated critique of behaviour concerning agency and corruption. Stakeholders valued the ability to access detailed information on micro-interactions and consider policy performance regarding both financial flows and biomass extraction.

How to Deal with Existing Coal Production Capacity on a Low-Carbon Transition Pathway? A Case Study of China

In recent years, driven by climate change and air pollution, the global energy structure is on a low-carbon transition way. Coal production capacity is expected to gradually shrink. Without proper planning, mismatch between capacity shrinking and increasing demand would lead to over-tight energy supplies, on the contrary, it would lead to overcapacity and waste of social resources. A quantitative method considering an overall planning horizon is needed to facilitate policy-making. In this paper, a monthly-scale multi-period and multi-regional modelling and optimization framework of a coal supply system at a transient stage is proposed. China’s coal supply system is taken as a case study. The optimal reduction path of China's coal production capacity and the optimal operation strategy of the coal supply system are obtained by minimising the overall cost by 2050. Results show that the capacity concentration policy would lead to more coal transmission, which results in higher total supply cost.

Processes of elite power and low-carbon pathways: Experimentation, financialisation, and dispossession

What is a low-carbon pathway? To many, it is a way of mitigating climate change. To others, it is about addressing market failure or capturing the co-benefits attached to low-carbon systems, such as jobs or improved health. To still others, it represents building adaptive capacity and resilience in the face of climate change. However, these interpretations can fail to acknowledge how pathways of low-carbon transitions can also become intertwined with processes and structures of inequality, exclusion and injustice. Using a critical lens that draws from a variety of disciplines, this article explores three ways through which responses to climate change can entrench, exacerbate or reconfigure the power of elites. As society attempts to create a low-carbon society, including for example via coastal protection efforts, disaster recovery, or climate change mitigation and renewable energy, these efforts intersect with at least three processes of elite power: experimentation, financialisation, and dispossession. Experimentation is when elites use the world as a laboratory to test or pilot low-carbon technologies or policy models, transferring risks yet not always sharing benefits. Financialisation refers to the expansion and proliferation of finance, capital, and financial markets in the global economy and many national economies, processes of which have recently extended to renewable energy. Dispossession is when elites use decarbonisation as a process through which to appropriate land, wealth, or other assets (and in the process make society more majoritarian and/or unequal). We explore these three themes using a variety of evidence across illustrative case studies, including hard and soft coastal protection measures (Bangladesh, Netherlands), climate risk insurance (Malawi), and renewable energy auctions and associated mechanisms of finance and investment (South Africa and Mexico).

The role of the discount rate for emission pathways and negative emissions

The importance of the discount rate in cost-benefit analysis of long term problems, such as climate change, has been widely acknowledged. However, the choice of the discount rate is hardly discussed when translating policy targets—such as 1.5 °C and 2 °C–into emission reduction strategies with the possibility of overshoot. Integrated assessment models (IAMs) have quantified the sensitivity of low carbon pathways to a series of factors, including economic and population growth, national and international climate policies, and the availability of low carbon technologies, including negative emissions. In this paper we show how and to what extent emission pathways are also influenced by the discount rate. Using both an analytical and a numerical IAM, we demonstrate how discounting affects key mitigation indicators, such as the time when net global emissions reach zero, the amount of carbon budget overshoot, and the carbon price profile. To ensure inter-generational equity and be coherent with cost-benefit analysis normative choices, we suggest that IAMs should use lower discount rates than the ones currently adopted. For a 1000 GtCO2 carbon budget, reducing the discount rate from 5% to 2% would more than double today’s carbon price (from 21 to 55 $/tCO2) and more than halve the carbon budget overshoot (from 46% to 16%), corresponding to a reduction of about 300 GtCO2 of net negative emissions over the century.

Macroeconomic assessment of India’s development and mitigation pathways

ABSTRACT Although a rapidly growing economy, India faces many challenges, including in meeting the Sustainable Development Goals of the United Nations. Moreover, post-2020 climate actions outlined in India’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement envision development along low-carbon emission pathways. With coal providing almost three-quarters of Indian electricity, achieving such targets will have wide-ranging implications for economic activity. Assessing such implications is the focus of our research. To do so, we use a hybrid modelling architecture that combines the strengths of the AIM/Enduse bottom-up model of energy systems and the IMACLIM top-down economy-wide model. This hybrid architecture rests upon an original dataset that brings together national accounting, energy balance and energy price data. We analyse four scenarios ranging to mid-century: business-as-usual (BAU), 2°C, sustainable 2°C and 1.5°C. Our 2°C pathway proves compatible with economic growth close to the 6% yearly rate of BAU from 2012 to 2050, at the cost of reduced household consumption but with significant positive impact on foreign debt accumulation. The latter impact stems from improvement of the trade balance, whose current large deficit is the primary cause of high fossil fuel imports. Further mitigation effort backing our 1.5°C scenario shows slightly higher annual GDP growth, thereby revealing potential synergies between deep environmental performance and economic growth. Structural change assumptions common to our scenarios significantly transform the activity shares of sectors. The envisioned transition will require appropriate policies, notably to manage the conflicting interests of entrenched players in traditional sectors like coal and oil, and the emerging players of the low-carbon economy. Key policy insights Low carbon pathways are compatible with Indian growth despite their high investment costs Moving away from fossil fuel-based energy systems would result in foreign exchange savings to the tune of $1 trillion from 2012 to 2050 for oil imports. Achieving deep decarbonization in India requires higher mobilized capital in renewables and energy efficiency enhancements. Phasing out fossil fuels would, however, require careful balancing of interests between conventional and emerging sector players through just transitions.