Low-carbon Energy System Research Articles

The Effects of Structural Breaks on Energy Resources in the Long Run. Evidence from the Last Two Oil Price Crashes before COVID-19

The course of events since 2014, including the worldwide pandemic of a coronavirus disease, have shown that oil market fundamentals have not always been clearly anticipated and that additional external factors, rather than those related to supply and demand, do play important roles in signaling future price changes. Within that complex setting, this study examined the influences of structural breaks on the long-term properties of Brent crude oil, gasoil, low-sulfur fuel oil, natural gas, and coal over the period 2002–2018. In an effort to assess the impacts of these structural changes, we identified time points at which structural break changes occurred and unit root properties using a representative variety of unit root testing alternatives. From the estimation results, we observed that only fuel oil and national balancing point (NBP) prices show evidence of mean-reverting behavior, suggesting that shocks to these two markets are short-lived when allowing for structural breaks. Although the idea of market forces bringing the non-renewable markets to their equilibrium in the long run makes the role of policy-making more challenging, it highlights the importance of the policy mix in the transition to a low-carbon energy system.

Direct and indirect effects of climate aid on carbon emissions in recipient countries

Abstract Climate aid refers to official development assistance relevant for mitigation and adaptation, and it is an important guarantee for action against climate change. Meanwhile, evidences suggesting that a large portion of climate aid flows to energy areas and the resulting energy restructuring is highly associated with carbon emissions in recipient countries. Focusing on the complicated relations among climate aid, energy structure and carbon emissions in recipient countries, we aim to investigate the influencing mechanism of climate aid. According to the theoretical analysis, we suppose that climate aid has both direct and indirect carbon reduction effects on recipient countries. And on the empirical analysis, based on the national panel data of 52 recipient countries from 1980 to 2016, the mediation model is used to empirically-test the above dual carbon reduction mechanism. In the direct path, climate aid can directly reduce carbon emissions by monitoring their implementation effect and increasing carbon reduction resources in recipient countries. As for the indirect effect, climate aid with low-carbon technology attribute can promote the gradual substitution of clean energy for traditional fossil energy to optimize energy structure, and ultimately reduce the carbon emissions in recipient countries. This study provides useful enlightenments for fulfilling the climate aid commitments, better utilizing climate aid, building low-carbon energy systems, and exploring broader environmental benefits.

Methodology for Quantifying the Energy Saving Potentials Combining Building Retrofitting, Solar Thermal Energy and Geothermal Resources

New technological, societal and legislative developments are necessary to support transitions to low-carbon energy systems. The building sector is responsible for almost 36% of the global final energy and 40% of CO2 emissions, so this sector has high potential to contribute to the expansion of positive energy districts. With this aim, a new digital Geographic Information System (GIS) platform has been developed to quantify the energy savings obtained through the implementation of refurbishment measures in residential buildings, including solar thermal collectors and geothermal technologies and assuming the postal district as the representative unit for the territory. Solar resources have been estimated from recently updated solar irradiation maps, whereas geothermal resources have been estimated from geological maps. Urbanistic data have been estimated from official cadastre databases. For representative buildings, the annual energy demand and savings are obtained and compared with reference buildings, both for heating and cooling. The GIS platform provides information on average results for each postal district, as well as estimates for buildings with particular parameters. The methodology has been applied to the Asturian region, an area of about 10,600 km2 on the Cantabrian coast of Spain, with complex orography and scattered population, qualified as a region in energy transition. High rehabilitation potentials have been achieved for buildings constructed before the implementation of the Spanish Technical Building Code of 2006, being higher for isolated houses than for collective buildings. Some examples of results are introduced in specific localities of different climatic zones.

Impact of sector coupling on the market value of renewable energies – A model-based scenario analysis

Decarbonizing the energy supply by substituting fossil fuels with renewable energy sources (RES) is a key task for the coming decades in order to achieve the EU's ambitious climate protection targets. Information about the possible development and marketability of RES in the electricity sector is essential for assessing future funding needs. However, rising shares of fluctuating RES generation in the energy system reduce the average market prices and increase price volatility. Balancing price variations requires a considerable degree of flexibility. Additional flexibility in the electricity market through closer interconnection between the electricity sector and other demand sectors makes it possible to keep the market values of RES closer to the general market price level, irrespective of their shares. Such sector coupling can thus contribute to a cost-efficient transition to a low-carbon energy system. This paper examines the impact of efficient sector coupling on the market values of RES in a European energy system with ambitious decarbonization. We analyze different scenarios by applying the Enertile model, which uses an integrated cost optimization approach with flexibility options due to sector coupling and provides a detailed future development of RES. In our analysis, we examine three flexibility options: smart charging of electric vehicles, decentralized heat pumps in buildings, and multivalent district heating grids. We show that the flexible use of electricity in district heating has a significant impact on market values, while the impact of both flexible electric vehicle charging and flexible heating with heat pumps is rather small. Short-term flexibility due to load shifting of the charging or heating process shows only a limited effect on market values. Fuel switching in district heating, however, offers the possibility to change the absolute demand for electricity in direct response to RES feed-in and drastically reduces the curtailment of RES.

Regional Energy Demand Analysis Portal (REDAP) Digitalisation: enabling better government decision-making in the building & transport sectors

Worldwide, there is an increasing awareness and sense of urgency about the need to transition towards efficient, sustainable and low-carbon energy systems. This process, however, involves the complex task of performing integrated energy-demand analysis which helps to formulate the necessary clean and optimised energy supply strategies. For this reason, today’s governments are supporting collaborative research initiatives that will enable better-informed government decision-making on the rollout of smart energy systems. This ERA-Net-backed Regional Energy Demand Analysis Portal (REDAP) project [1] is one such initiative. REDAP aspires to become a globally-recognised digital methodology for estimating regional energy demand within the built environment. Informed by the recommendations of the UN’s Initiative on Global Geospatial Information Management (UN-GGIM), the REDAP consortium will improve, automate, standardise and replicate an existing and proven building sector energy demand analysis technique and incorporate into it a new methodology for analysing transport energy demand. The resulting ‘spatio-temporal’ model will provide governments with regional-specific insights into the integrated and ever-changing socio-economic and technological drivers behind this demand. By enabling governments to monitor and report on regional energy performance, REDAP is expected to address the targets of multiple Sustainable Development Goals, including: 7. Affordable and Clean Energy, 11. Sustainable Cities and Communities, and 12. Responsible Consumption and Production.

Integrating environmental understanding into freshwater floatovoltaic deployment using an effects hierarchy and decision trees

In an era of looming land scarcity and environmental degradation, the development of low carbon energy systems without adverse impacts on land and land-based resources is a global challenge. ‘Floatovoltaic’ energy systems—comprising floating photovoltaic (PV) panels over water—are an appealing source of low carbon energy as they spare land for other uses and attain greater electricity outputs compared to land-based systems. However, to date little is understood of the impacts of floatovoltaics on the hosting water body. Anticipating changes to water body processes, properties and services owing to floatovoltaic deployment represents a critical knowledge gap that may result in poor societal choices and water body governance. Here, we developed a theoretically-derived hierarchical effects framework for the assessment of floatovoltaic impacts on freshwater water bodies, emphasising ecological interactions. We describe how the presence of floatovoltaic systems may dramatically alter the air-water interface, with subsequent implications for surface meteorology, air-water fluxes and physical, chemical and biological properties of the recipient water body. We apply knowledge from this framework to delineate three response typologies—‘magnitude’, those for which the direction and magnitude of effect can be predicted; ‘direction’, those for which only the direction of effect can be predicted; and ‘uncertain’, those for which the response cannot be predicted—characterised by the relative importance of levels in the effects hierarchy. Illustrative decision trees are developed for an example water body response within each typology, specifically, evaporative water loss, cyanobacterial biomass, and phosphorus release from bed sediments, and implications for ecosystem services, including climate regulation, are discussed. Finally, the potential to use the new understanding of likely ecosystem perturbations to direct floatovoltaic design innovations and identify future research priorities is outlined, showcasing how inter-sectoral collaboration and environmental science can inform and optimise this low carbon, land-sparing renewable energy for ecosystem gains.

Design, Sizing, and Energy Management of Microgrids in Harbor Areas: A Review

Energy efficiency and low-carbon energy systems are increasingly taken into account in seaports, due to climate change challenges and the evolution of environmental regulations. Thus, technological breakthroughs must be brought to numerous systems in harbors, such as harbor cranes, seaport vehicles, or the power supply of berthed vessels. These aspects may require the establishment of a microgrid in the harbor area. Microgrids have been subjected to a wide development on the mainland and islands, mostly for domestic loads. However, these are still scarce in harbor areas. Their development in such places faces several challenges, such as high power requirements, monitoring and management of a wide range of loads, energy policy framework, etc. Moreover, the establishment of a microgrid involves a study of sizing and of energy management, to avoid prohibitive costs and to verify load requirements. This paper provides a literature survey related to the development of microgrids in seaport areas. Firstly, the main components that occur in harbor microgrids are listed, and then a review of studies dealing with sizing and energy management is proposed. Finally, from this survey, innovative concepts and barriers are listed, with an up-to-date review of microgrid development in seaports worldwide.

Grid Integration as a Strategy of Med-TSO in the Mediterranean Area in the Framework of Climate Change and Energy Transition

The paper presents a survey on the situation in terms of solutions for grid integration throughout the Mediterranean area in the framework of climate change and energy transition. The objective of the study is focused on Mediterranean region connectivity initiatives in the context of the broader vision of an interconnected European–Mediterranean (Euro–Med) power system for a future low-carbon energy system as the fundamental objective of Med-TSO, the Association of the Mediterranean Transmission System Operators (TSOs) for electricity. The analysis examines how the power grid connectivity evolves from now on to 2030, describing the progress made to date in integrating the power grids of the Mediterranean region as well as the future possibilities for a more integrated power grid covering the whole region. The research, conducted within Mediterranean Project II of Med-TSO, includes an overview on the current situation of the interconnections and the proposal for the 2030 interconnections Master Plan, coherent with the national development plans (NDPs) and shared energy scenarios for the whole region at the same horizon of 2030. It conducts an assessment of the gap between the current and the 2030 expected situation, taking into account the energy transition toward 2030 objectives resulting from the achievements of climate change pledges, local governmental policies and EU strategy for neighboring countries and Africa. The solutions survey includes technical solutions, procedures and rules to improve systems’ integration and increase regional electricity exchanges in Med-TSO countries, and is aimed at achieving a higher quality of services and better efficiency of energy supply in Med-TSO member countries in the framework of the expected energy transition. The main scope is to present solutions that will be made available due to maturity and experience in the coming decade, specifically: high voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission technologies, energy storage, sectors coupling, smart grid technologies and services, inter-TSO and transmission–distribution cooperation platforms, etc. The article presents two case studies: the island paradigm and a new cross-border interconnection project of common interest. Finally, the post-pandemic core role of TSOs, which has become more relevant than ever, is transformed into a key-enabler of energy transition towards a sustainable, resilient and innovative climate-neutral recovery.

How might controlled fusion fit into the emerging low-carbon energy system of the mid-twenty-first century?

We examine the characteristics that fusion-based generation technologies will need to have if they are to compete in the emerging low-carbon energy system of the mid-twenty-first century. It is likely that the majority of future electric energy demand will be provided by the lowest marginal cost energy technology-which in many regions will be stochastically varying renewable solar and wind electric generation coupled to systems that provide up to a few days of energy storage. Firm low-carbon or zero-carbon resources based on gas-fired turbines with carbon capture, advanced fission reactors, hydroelectric and perhaps engineered geothermal systems will then be used to provide the balance of load in a highly dynamic system operating in competitive markets governed by merit-order pricing mechanisms that select the lowest-cost supplies to meet demand. These firm sources will have overnight capital costs in the range of a few $/Watt, be capable of cycling down to a fraction of their maximum power output, operate profitably at low utilization fraction, and have a suitable unit size of order 100 MWe. If controlled fusion using either magnetic confinement or inertial confinement approaches is to have any chance of providing a material contribution to future electrical energy needs, it must demonstrate these key qualities and at the same time prove robust safety characteristics that avoid the perceived dread risk that plagues nuclear fission power, avoid the generation of long-lived radioactive waste and demonstrate highly reliable operations. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Prospects for high gain inertial fusion energy (part 1)'.

Actors, objectives, context: A framework of the political economy of energy and climate policy applied to India, Indonesia, and Vietnam

Devising policies that facilitate a transition to low-carbon energy systems requires a close understanding of the country-specific political economy of energy and climate policy. We develop a generalized AOC (‘Actors, Objectives, Context’) political economy framework to inform and enable comparison of country-specific case studies of how economic structure, political institutions, and the political environment shape policy outcomes. Our actor-centered perspective is built on the assumption that those policies are implemented that best meet the objectives of actors with the greatest influence on policy decisions. Applying the framework in practice includes four basic steps: i) identifying the societal and political actors most relevant for the formulation, implementation and enforcement of energy and climate policies; ii) spelling out these actors’ underlying objectives; iii) assessing the economic, institutional, discursive and environmental context which determines how certain objectives matter for certain societal actors; and iv) analyzing the dynamic interactions among these factors leading to aggregate policy outcomes. Context factors determine how societal actors influence political actors engaged in formal public policy formulation, implementation and enforcement, and how the dynamic interplay of different political actors’ interests results in energy and climate policy outcomes. The framework can accommodate a wide range of theoretical perspectives. We illustrate how the framework enables conducting comparable energy and climate policy country case studies, using the example of coal use in India, Indonesia and Vietnam. Finally, we discuss how the framework can contribute to the identification of entry points that could bring about policy change.

Trends in the development of transportation education

The rapid development of the transport industry requires the operation of technically complex systems and high-tech equipment. This is typical for all types of transport. The publications of a number of experts are considered, according to which the industry transport universities of the Russian Federation are assigned a leading role in the innovative development of transport. The features of industry transport education, foreign models of staffing in the transport industry are analyzed. The author’s map of the distribution of major transport universities in the world and universities that have transport faculties is presented. Analysis of expert opinions, trends in the field of vocational education and the characteristics of industry transport education, made it possible to identify trends in the development of transport education: blurring the boundaries between transport educational programs (EP); increasing the role of additional EP in the field of transport; increased demand for individual EP, implemented using the means of electronic information educational systems; development of forms of cooperation and collaboration of universities implementing programs in the field of transport; the emergence of new professions in the field of transport; demand for new competencies needed to solve non-routine analytical and non-routine interpersonal tasks. The key factor in the influence of education on technological development and economic growth is the quality of education. In this regard, the content of the EP in the field of transport becomes relevant. In the EP in the field of transport, it is necessary to take into account the following trends and technologies: acceleration of digitalization; development of virtual and augmented reality; automation of the entire life cycle; new materials; the emergence of new transport systems and supply chains; development of low-carbon and carbon-free energy systems.

Hydrogen Production from Catalytic Polyethylene Terephthalate Waste Reforming Reaction, an overview

AbstractAs a sustainable and renewable energy carrier for transition, hydrogen is considered as a key future fuel for the low carbon energy systems. During the past few decades, attention has been given to the conversion of waste materials, including plastics to the production of hydrogen. Studies in this field are of great importance because they resolve numerous problems brought about by plastic waste with other forms of waste. Polyethylene terephthalate (PET) is one of the major products of plastic waste which constitutes a major threat to environmental conservation efforts and harms living organism. Phenol has been chosen in this study as a solvent for PET to produce hydrogen because of unwanted liquid product in the bio-oil. This research investigates catalytic steam reforming of phenol with dissolved PET for hydrogen production. The aim of this study was the review of a highly active and stable catalyst for hydrogen production from steam reforming waste products. The analysis of product composition indicated that steam reforming of PET-phenol generally produced a high amount of aliphatic branched-chain compounds, together with a moderate amount of cyclic compounds. The reaction conditions also led to the alkylation of phenol by the reforming products from the PET-phenol solution with and without the catalyst. In conclusion, this study explored new ways to use l product derived from waste plastic materials. It provides a promising clean technology, which employed polyethylene terephthalate waste dissolved in phenol (as a solvent) for hydrogen production.

Multicarrier Energy Systems: Shaping Our Energy Future

Multicarrier energy systems (MCESs) are characterized by strong coordination in operation and planning across multiple energy vectors and/or sectors to deliver reliable, cost-effective energy services to end users/customers with minimal impact on the environment. They have efficiency and flexibility benefits and are deployed in large and small scales on the supply and demand sides and at the network level but are more complex to control and manage. In this article, MCESs are reviewed in the context of future low carbon energy systems based on electrification and very high variable renewable energy penetrations. Fully exploiting these systems requires some cost reductions, more sophisticated operations enabled by standardized communications and control capabilities detailed planning paradigms, and addressing their corresponding economic challenges. All these point toward the direction of analysis, markets, and technology research and development coupled with better policy and regulatory frameworks. One futuristic vision of a very low carbon energy system is proposed that illustrates potential pathways to an MCES-dominated energy future.

Flexibility From Distributed Multienergy Systems

Multienergy systems (MES), in which multiple energy vectors are integrated and optimally operated, are key assets in low-carbon energy systems. Multienergy interactions of distributed energy resources via different energy networks generate the so-called distributed MES (DMES). While it is now well recognized that DMES can provide power system flexibility by shifting across different energy vectors, it is essential to have a systematic discussion on the main features of such flexibility. This article presents a comprehensive overview of DMES modeling and characterization of flexibility applications. The concept of “multienergy node” is introduced to extend the power node model, used for electrical flexibility, in the multienergy case. A general definition of DMES flexibility is given, and a general mathematical and graphical modeling framework, based on multidimensional maps, is formulated to describe the operational characteristics of individual MES and aggregate DMES, including the role of multienergy networks in enabling or constraining flexibility. Several tutorial examples are finally presented with illustrative case studies on current and future DMES practical applications.

Coloured BIPV Technologies: Methodological and Experimental Assessment for Architecturally Sensitive Areas

Energy flexibility in buildings is gaining momentum with the introduction of new European directives that enable buildings to manage their own energy demand and production, by storing, consuming or selling electricity according to their need. The transition towards a low-carbon energy system, through the promotion of on-site energy production and enhancement of self-consumption, can be supported by building-integrated photovoltaics (BIPV) technologies. This paper investigates the aesthetic and technological integration of hidden coloured PV modules in architecturally sensitive areas that seem to be the best possibility to favour a balance between conservation and energy issues. First, a multidisciplinary methodology for evaluating the aesthetic and technical integration of PV systems in architecturally sensitive area is proposed, referring to the technologies available on the market. Second, the experimental characterisation of the technical performance specific BIPV modules and their comparison with standard modules under standard weather condition are analysed, with the aim of acquiring useful data for comparing the modules’ integration properties and performance. For this purpose, new testbeds have been set up to investigate the aesthetic integration and the energy performances of innovative BIPV products. The paper describes the analyses carried out to define the final configuration of these experimental testbeds. Finally, the experimental characterisation at standard test conditions of two coloured BIPV modules is presented and the experimental design for the outdoor testing is outlined.

Achieving Climate Targets via the Circular Carbon Economy: The Case of Saudi Arabia

Clean hydrocarbon technologies have a key role to play in achieving the circular carbon economy while meeting climate targets in many countries around the world. The aim of this work is to assess which technology, or combination of technologies, is the most cost-effective in achieving climate targets by 2030 leading to a quick and smooth transition to a low carbon energy system in Saudi Arabia and similar oil-based economies. We find that low carbon policy support by banning crude oil in power generation, leads to accelerated underground oil gasification, in the absence of carbon prices. We also find that setting a policy for carbon reduction targets leads to a more flexible energy system transition enabling more technologies in the mix with an increasing transition period. Our results also show that clean hydrocarbon technologies may be sufficient to achieve new climate targets, as shown by the stabilised emissions in scenario 3 by 2025, without the implementation of renewable sources of energy which most studies do not include. We propose that by investing in clean hydrocarbon technologies over the short term, the transition towards a low carbon economy will be accelerated while developing renewable sources of energy over the long term.

Financing Energy Transition with Real Estate Wealth

Transition to a low carbon energy system requires extensive private investment and novel financing instruments. Corporate power purchase agreements (PPAs) have been proven effective in increasing renewables financing. The challenge is to scale this corporate model to smaller energy consumers that form a significant part of the global total energy demand and carbon dioxide emissions. This paper examines collateral strength and global potential of the real estate sector as an offtaker for PPAs. The strength is evaluated by constructing a detailed energy and economic model for 90,000 buildings in the Helsinki Metropolitan Area (HMA), Finland. The global potential is evaluated by creating country-level profiles with global data of interest rates, energy consumption, and energy costs. The results suggest that real estate is a strong offtaker as the HMA’s value of real estate collateral compared to required wind power capital expenditures (that could cover electricity demand of the buildings) is approximately 100:1, and for cash flows, the ratio is 70:1 between gross rents and PPA costs. Analysis of global data suggests that the majority of buildings’ energy consumption in OECD countries as well as a large part of China’s energy consumption could fall into low access finance under the presented concept.

One technology, two pathways? Strategic Niche Management and the diverging diffusion of concentrated solar power in South Africa and the United States

The transition towards a low carbon energy system requires significant deployment of renewable energy technologies. Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) plants could contribute to a low carbon energy system, with an estimated potential global capacity of over 600GW by 2030. Despite this potential, however, the CSP industry lags behind other renewable technologies, with only about 4% of its estimated global potential expected to be realised in the next decade. This paper investigates the reasons for this by comparing CSP in the US, where 60% of worldwide capacity is currently located, with South Africa, where its development has been slow despite an abundance of natural solar-energy resources. Using strategic niche management analysis, we identify replicable success factors that could accelerate the uptake of CSP projects in developing countries. The results reveal that the main reason for the successful diffusion and adoption of CSP in the US is consistent policy support, which has made it possible to bridge the gap between research and development and emerge in the market. By contrast, the development of CSP in South Africa has been hindered by several technical and economic problems, including a lack of technological expertise, resources and funding.

Governing system transitions in the context of scattered agency: Flexibility, action, and ecologies of epistemic equipment

Orchestrating change when agency is scattered among many different actors is a salient challenge affecting the governance of societal systems during transitions. Established normative governance approaches emphasize the cultivation of shared understandings among actors as a premise for coordinated transformative action. The aim of this paper is to outline a more nuanced and less integrated conception of the governance work involved in aligning agencies in pursuit of transformative change. First, we argue that attempts to coordinate agencies must account for the fact that most actors relate to societal systems from specific situated positions and through specific situated practices, rather than from abstract perspectives. From this point of departure, we stipulate that coordination practices are shaped by the techniques employed by actors to interpret the complex environments of societal systems as meaningful and actionable. We conceptualize such techniques for making sense of complexities as epistemic equipment. Based on a case study of flexibility governance in the transition to low carbon energy systems in Denmark, we suggest that identifying, intervening, and reshaping entire ecologies of epistemic equipment constitute critical aspects of transformative system governance. These governance activities configure how situated actors make sense of their own roles within systems, which are experienced through practical everyday actions.

A review on energy storage and demand side management solutions in smart energy islands

European Union has definitely identified the priorities towards sustainable and low-carbon energy systems recognizing a key role to islands that have been described as ideal sites to develop and test innovative strategies and solutions that will then boost the transition on the mainland. Nevertheless, the integration of Variable Renewable Energy Sources (vRES) into the electricity grid are already causing technical problems to island grids thus making grid flexibility a key topic. In the past, since power plants were completely manageable while the load was unpredictable, the grid flexibility was supplied by traditional power plants; but now, due to vRES, the variability and unpredictability has moved to the generation side and the opposite shift has happened to flexibility agents. This paper deals with solutions that improve the ability of the grid to cope with vRES unpredictability such as energy storage technologies and all the solutions offered by sector coupling strategies. Particularly, this research focus on solutions that deals with such solutions in the insular contexts. Several solutions have been presented concluding that battery energy systems and pumped hydro energy storage are the most used technologies in islands. As regard sector coupling and Demand Side Management solutions, all the analysed solutions showed relevant results in terms of i) reduction of excess electricity production and ii) increased grid ability of hosting vRES. Nevertheless, some of the current gaps in literature have been pinpointed and future research challenge and opportunities have been suggested.