Low-carbon Development Strategies Research Articles

Analysis of Low-Carbon Contribution Pathways for Resource-Based Cities under the Dual Carbon Goals: The Case of Tangshan, China

China is still the biggest carbon emission entity at present, which is mostly produced by resource-based cities. It means that actions to control carbon emissions in order to mitigate the greenhouse effect are urgently needed. The purpose of this study is to examine resource-based cities' low-carbon development strategies after the dual carbon regulations were put into place. Using a literature review as the research technique, this paper uses Tangshan as an example to explore the current condition, difficulties that exist, and Policy recommendations for resource-based cities looking to improve in a low-carbon manner. The result shows that there are now some clear issues with resource-based cities' low-carbon growth routes: high reliance on high-emission industries, the incomplete top-level design, and “the intensifying competitive pressure from surrounding cities. The following optimization suggestions have been proposed for the above-mentioned issues. The optimization direction of resource-based areas should be to clarify the top-level design, increase competitiveness, and continue to increase industrial carbon emission reduction. In other words, this kind of cities should reduce the dependence of urban development on high-polluting industries and attract talent to cope with external competitive pressures requires the government to coordinate and cooperate across departments, so that under the dual carbon goals they can achieve carbon reduction in resource-based cities which are under the dual carbon goals.

Research on China's Carbon Emission Prediction and Low-Carbon Development Strategy Based on Big Data

Research on China's Carbon Emission Prediction and Low-Carbon Development Strategy Based on Big Data

Spatiotemporal Evolution and Driving Factors of Land Use Carbon Emissions in Jiangxi Province, China

Analyzing the spatiotemporal changes and influencing factors of carbon emissions generated by land use is of great importance for improving land use structure and promoting regional low-carbon economic development. This study, based on remote sensing and statistical yearbook data from 1995 to 2020, calculated the carbon emissions from land use in Jiangxi Province, China. Multiple spatial analysis methods and the logarithmic mean Divisia index were used to elucidate the spatiotemporal evolution and driving factors of carbon emissions, and the findings revealed the following: (1) The spatiotemporal changes in land use in Jiangxi Province during 1995–2020 were substantial as forest land accounted for 65% of the entire land area, while construction land increased by 98.1%. Cultivated land decreased the most, followed by forest land. (2) There was a fourfold rise in carbon emissions in Jiangxi Province, driven primarily by construction land, and northern areas produced higher carbon emissions compared with central and southern regions. Forest land was the main carbon sink. (3) Economic development (257.36%) and the impact of the proportion of construction land (211.31%) were the primary factors contributing to the increase in carbon emissions from land use, while other factors had inhibitory effects. This study transformed the macroscale low-carbon development strategy of cities into targeted local policies, and the research theories and methods adopted could provide scientific reference for other regions in urgent need of carbon reduction worldwide.

Study on the Optimization of Urban Traffic and Spatial Structure in the Environment of Low-Carbon Eco-Cities

Under the concept of “dual-carbon development”, optimising the spatial structure of urban life, perfecting the management system of public transport services, realising the spatial optimisation of urban transport, minimising carbon emissions and reducing environmental pollution are the problems that need to be solved urgently. This paper firstly analyses the development status quo of low-carbon cities, clarifies the influencing factors of low-carbon eco-cities, and discusses the correlation between the scale, population density, traffic structure and energy development of low-carbon eco-cities and low-carbon eco-cities. On this basis, the low-carbon ecological development strategy of City C in China is proposed as an example. Therefore, this study argues that low-carbon cities, as a strategic goal of new urbanisation development, should focus on constructing a theoretical system of urban upgrading and optimisation under the environment of green and sustainable ecological development, and introduce corresponding construction guarantee optimisation policies.

Low-carbon development vector in circular economy

Within the framework of the Industry 4.0 concept, transition from a linear economy model to a circular economy model aimed at energy saving, regenerative green production, circulation, and consumption is becoming increasingly relevant. The purpose of the study is to substantiate the low-carbon development model consistency with the goals and objectives of circular economy (hereinafter referred to as CE) for subsequent development of a green growth strategy. Objectives of the study: to use the criteria and methods of CE to develop a toolkit for transition to low-carbon economy and to formulate its development strategy. The study used general scientific methods, in particular, analysis, synthesis, and periodization. In the course of the study the criteria for green economy growth have been identified, and in accordance with them the stages of CE have been established such as conceptual, institutional, and regulatory. The author’s variant of the combined regulatory system based on a combination of administrative and economic measures has been proposed. Matrices of problem situations by individual types of activity have been formed. As the study result, the authors outlined the circular economy stages, substantiated the possibility of low-carbon transformation within the framework of CE, relying on carbon emissions management, low-carbon technologies and a system of financing “green” projects implementation. The tools to stimulate “green” growth have been defined: a tax on greenhouse gas emissions, emissions trading system, subsidizing alternative energy, environmental projects, energy-saving technologies development and their implementation into the production process. The novelty of the study lies in a scheme development for building a low-carbon economic development strategy aimed at achieving the goals of reducing greenhouse gas emissions at the level of both the region and industrial enterprises.

Electroplating sludge derived CuFe2O4/MgFe2O4 metal oxide composites for highly efficient removal of Congo red.

The utilization of electroplating sludge (ES) to derive metal oxide functional materials is a key strategy, as it enables the recycling of valuable elements, mitigates environmental risks, and aligns with green, low-carbon development strategies. Nevertheless, the development of metal oxide composite functional materials with distinctive structures and properties derived from ES continues to present several challenges. Herein, we synthesized CuFe2O4/MgFe2O4 metal oxide composites from ES by one-step hydrothermal method. As-obtained CuFe2O4/MgFe2O4 metal oxide composites (MMOs) have a unique layered structure, richer mesoporous and microporous structures, activity sites. When evaluated as an adsorbent for Congo red (CR), as-synthesized CuFe2O4/MgFe2O4 with layered structure composite exhibited excellent adsorption capacity (1039.1 mg/g) and reusability (85.55% after five cycles), which was superior to most similar adsorbents reported till date. Such improvement is explored to mainly originate from two respects: the physical adsorption facilitated by the abundant pores formed through the stacking and growth of CuFe2O4 and MgFe2O4, and the chemisorption resulting from surface complexation and hydrogen bonding between the MMOs and CR. This strategy to directly transform ES into functional materials shows great promise both in waste management and preparation of robust adsorbents for wastewater treatment.

Spatiotemporal Differentiation of Carbon Budget and Carbon Compensation Zoning Based on the Plan for Major Function-oriented Zones：A Case Study of Counties in the Yellow River Basin

Exploring the spatiotemporal differentiation of the carbon budget and clarifying the zoning of carbon compensation based on the perspective of the main function-oriented zones is of great significance for promoting regional low-carbon development and achieving the "dual carbon" goal. This study was conducted using 550 counties in the Yellow River Basin as the basic unit, and based on the concentration index to examine the spatial distribution characteristics of carbon emissions and carbon absorptions in the main function-oriented zones of the Yellow River Basin, a four-dimensional benchmark framework for carbon compensation zoning was constructed by total scale, economic contribution, ecological carrying capacity, and land development intensity. The SOM-K-means algorithm was used to establish a differentiated carbon compensation zoning scheme. The results showed that： ① The carbon emissions and carbon absorptions and their growth trends of the main function-oriented zones in the Yellow River Basin were in line with the positioning of the main functional area, and the significant space-time distribution characteristics of the concentration level of carbon emissions and carbon absorptions were shown. ② Significant regional differences exist in the four attributes of total carbon emissions scale, economic contribution, ecological carrying capacity, and land development intensity. The overall scale of carbon emissions showed a growth trend, with obvious comparative advantages in the midstream and downstream. The overall comparative advantage of economic contribution increased first and then decreased, with the midstream and downstream being the attribute advantage areas of economic contribution. The overall ecological carrying capacity had been improved, and the upstream had obvious advantages in ecological carrying properties. The advantageous areas for land development were mainly concentrated in the midstream and downstream； in particular, the comparative advantage index in the midstream was showing a rapid upward trend. ③ Moreover, there were 287 compensated areas, 78 balanced areas, and 185 payment areas in the Yellow River Basin. Eleven types of carbon compensation zones were finally formed by combining the comparative advantage index of four types of attributes with the plan for main function-oriented zones, and corresponding low-carbon development strategies were proposed for each type of zone.

Navigating total-factor carbon emission efficiency in the digital era: A case study from industry structure, environmental regulations, and trade spillover

Digital technology innovation has become essential to China's sustainable, low-carbon social development strategy. However, its spatial impact on carbon reduction and efficiency is unclear. This study innovatively utilizes patent search to define digital technology innovation and spatial econometric modeling to assess its association with total-factor carbon emission efficiency (TCEE) in 286 Chinese cities. There are some exciting research findings: (1) Digital technology innovation effectively accelerates local TCEE and contributes to TCEE in surrounding cities through spatial spillover effects. (2) The heterogeneous results show that digital technology innovation increases the local TCEE in the western region, inhibits the local TCEE in the eastern and northeastern areas, and shows apparent positive spillover effects in both the eastern and western areas; the positive effects of digital technology innovation on TCEE in non-resource cities and small cities are all-encompassing. (3) Both industrial structure upgrading and optimization can enhance the spatial spillover effect of digital technology innovation on TCEE; both formal and informal environmental regulations (ER) can effectively accelerate the TCEE enhancement effect of digital technology innovation on local and surrounding cities. (4) Digital technology innovation affects the TCEE of trading partners through domestic bilateral trade. This manuscript provides an actionable reference for measuring digital technology innovation and China's path to achieving an efficient low-carbon pathway.

Self-assembled Si-based anode combined with electrostatic spinning method to realize high-performance lithium-ion batteries

Addressing the volume expansion when silicon and metal oxides alone are used as anode materials for lithium-ion batteries. This study used a simple self-assembly method and electrostatic spinning technique to prepare silicon@copper oxide@carbon nanofibres (CNFs) anodes with dual modification. The high rigidity of metal oxide CuO and the excellent cycling stability of CNFs effectively reduce the buildup of silicon particles, alleviate the volume expansion effect, and improve the electrical conductivity, which leads to better cycling stability and larger specific capacity of lithium-ion batteries. An excellent reversible specific capacity of 748.5 mAh g‐1−1 was observed after 800 cycles at a high current density of 1 A g−1. In addition, the surface of Si@CuO@CNFs electrodes remains smooth and undamaged after 800 cycles, and the increase in cross-sectional thickness is about 68 %, which is significantly smaller than the 300 % increase in cross-sectional thickness of pure Si anode and effectively improves the specific capacity of Li-ion batteries. This research optimizes the design of silicon-based anode materials with simple and mature process technology, which makes an indispensable contribution to developing high-efficiency, long-life, and environmentally friendly lithium-ion batteries. The easy availability and non-polluting nature of the materials used also effectively reduce the reliance on rare or expensive elements, minimize the production process's environmental impact, and vigorously promote the global energy transition and low-carbon green development strategy.

Low Carbon-Development Strategy for the Oil and Gas Industry

Low Carbon-Development Strategy for the Oil and Gas Industry

Consideration of natural scientific background in Russia’s climate policy

Aim. Based on normative acts to reveal the key importance of the domestic scientific background in the implementation of climate policy.Objectives. To characterize the historical experience of using scientific-balance calculations in the implementation of strategic planning, applied today in the process of climate policy implementation in the national economy; to consider the current trends in strategic management of climate policy, description of the system of key cross-sectoral documents of strategic planning, reflection of accounting for the implementation of the major innovative project of state importance (MIP SI) and federal scientific and technical program (FSTP) in the system of climate policy in Russia.Methods. The author used general scientific methods of theoretical research, including analysis, synthesis, deduction, induction, and presented a system of intersectoral documents of climate policy in the context of the need to ensure anti-sanctions resistance. The results of the implementation of MIP SI and FSTP in the system of documents of inter-sectoral strategic planning of climate policy in the Russian economy are investigated.Results. The article analyzes the system of key intersectoral strategic planning documents developed and approved for the implementation of climate policy. According to the approved acts, in the Russian economy are realized MIP SI and FSTP, which contribute to the aggregation and implementation of scientific developments necessary in the implementation of climate policy of the Russian Federation (RF). In addition, the connection of the relevant documents with the documents of intersectoral (including technological) nature, which take into account not only the implementation of climate policy, but also the need to form technological sovereignty in connection with the sanctions restrictions imposed on the Russian economy. It is shown that state-level projects implemented in connection with the climate agenda can form a domestic foundation that will provide a promising scientific calculations and developments aimed at the realization of low-carbon development of the domestic economy.Conclusions. The low-carbon economic development strategy developed on the basis of the input-output methodology (inter-sectoral balance), the approved state program to reduce the carbon intensity of the Russian economy, as well as the updated Climate Doctrine are the key intersectoral documents of climate policy, which take into account relevant scientific research, including in the natural-science plane. Aggregation of the results of the implementation of the MIP SI and FSTP will allow taking into account the advanced achievements of domestic research in the climate field, which will further ensure a more balanced implementation of the state climate policy in the long term, including in the context of the need to form and ensure technological sovereignty. This in the long term can positively affect the sustainable improvement of welfare in the country.

Simulation and Prediction of Land Use Change and Carbon Emission under Multiple Development Scenarios at the City Level: A Case Study of Xi’an, China

Studying urban land use and its impact on carbon emissions is crucial for achieving China’s dual carbon goals. This research utilized the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios 126, 245, and 585 from the Sixth International Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), along with a coupled System Dynamics (SD) and Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model and a carbon emission coefficient method to simulate and predict Xi’an’s land use carbon emissions from 2020 to 2040. The results indicate the following: (1) Cultivated and forest lands are the predominant land use types in Xi’an, with cultivated and grassland areas projected to decline under all three SSP scenarios by 2040. The most significant expansion of construction land, primarily at the expense of farmland, is projected under the SSP585 scenario, with an increase of 515.92 km2 by 2040. (2) Land use carbon emissions increased from 414.15 × 104 t in 2000 to 2376.10 × 104 t in 2020, with construction land being the primary source of emissions and forest land serving as the main carbon sink. However, the carbon sink capacity remained low at only 21.38 × 104 t in 2020. (3) Carbon emissions are expected to continue increasing under all scenarios through 2030 and 2040, though at a decreasing rate. The SSP126 scenario predicts the lowest emissions, reaching 9186.00 × 104 t by 2040, while SSP585 predicts the highest at 14,935.00 × 104 t. The findings of this study provide theoretical support for future low-carbon and high-quality urban development strategies.

Low Carbon Development Strategy in the Rambat Menduyung Mangrove Forest Area of West Bangka

Indonesia is committed to reducing carbon emissions through low-carbon development. Mangrove ecosystems have a high carbon storage value that can support this development. There is a problem of high mangrove degradation caused by economic activities. One of the sectors causing mangrove degradation is the mining sector in the province of Kepulauan Bangka Belitung. Low-carbon development strategies in mangrove areas are needed to support the increase of sustainable economic activities such as capture fisheries, aquaculture, and mangrove conservation. The objective of this research is to calculate the potential value of sustainable economic activities and develop a low-carbon development strategy in the Rambat Menduyung Mangrove Area. The methods used in this research are economic benefit analysis, benefit transfer analysis of carbon emission factors, and strategy analysis using interpretative structural modeling with Exsimpro software. The results of research suggest that potential economic activities that support low carbon development in mangrove areas, namely mangrove conservation, capture of marine biota, and blood clam production, produce economic benefits of IDR105,723,552,069/year. Prioritizing low-carbon development strategies by improving protection and law enforcement policies and increasing institutional capacity and community participation supported by adequate infrastructure from stakeholders, namely DKP West Bangka, KPHP Rambat Menduyung, and Belo Laut Village Government.

Low Carbon Development Strategy in the Rambat Menduyung Mangrove Forest Area of West Bangka

Indonesia is committed to reducing carbon emissions through low-carbon development. Mangrove ecosystems have a high carbon storage value that can support this development. There is a problem of high mangrove degradation caused by economic activities. One of the sectors causing mangrove degradation is the mining sector in the province of Kepulauan Bangka Belitung. Low-carbon development strategies in mangrove areas are needed to support the increase of sustainable economic activities such as capture fisheries, aquaculture, and mangrove conservation. The objective of this research is to calculate the potential value of sustainable economic activities and develop a low-carbon development strategy in the Rambat Menduyung Mangrove Area. The methods used in this research are economic benefit analysis, benefit transfer analysis of carbon emission factors, and strategy analysis using interpretative structural modeling with Exsimpro software. The results of research suggest that potential economic activities that support low carbon development in mangrove areas, namely mangrove conservation, capture of marine biota, and blood clam production, produce economic benefits of IDR105,723,552,069/year. Prioritizing low-carbon development strategies by improving protection and law enforcement policies and increasing institutional capacity and community participation supported by adequate infrastructure from stakeholders, namely DKP West Bangka, KPHP Rambat Menduyung, and Belo Laut Village Government.

An Investigation of the Carbon Emissions and Climate Change Awareness from the Artisanal and Small-scale Gold Mining (ASGM) sector in Guyana: The Case of Mahdia

Mineral extractive industries are becoming increasingly relevant in climate change science and policy. Guyana’s economic policy, the Low Carbon Development Strategy, seeks to align sectors of the economy along a low carbon emission trajectory. Although the artisanal and small-scale gold mining (ASGM) sector is economically important, it is a known emissions-intensive sector that contributes to deforestation and direct operational emissions. This study sought to increase understanding of direct operational emissions by investigating carbon emissions associated with fuel combustion in ASGM. Further, the study investigated miners’ awareness of carbon emissions and willingness to reduce emissions; thus providing context for policymakers to advance measures aimed at reducing carbon emissions in the ASGM sector. The research methods used were qualitative document analysis, questionnaire-survey, and interviews. It was found that the average carbon dioxide emission per volume of earth moved from a sample of ASGM operations in Mahdia per quarter was 4.69 x 10-6 MtCO2e/m3. Miners were generally unaware of their carbon footprint and its link to mining, climate change, and the Low Carbon Development Strategy. This knowledge gap was accompanied by negative attitudes. 79% of miners indicated there was no need to reduce their carbon footprint, and 85% of miners were unwilling to change their usual practices. Recommendations to advance and integrate the sector within the Low Carbon Development Strategy framework were explored within the themes of: regulation and management; fiscal measures; technology; and education and awareness.

Spatio-temporal Differentiation of County Carbon Budget and Territorial Space Optimization Zoning Strategy in Gansu Province from the Perspective of Carbon Neutrality

Under the background of comprehensively practicing the overall system concept of the "living community" in the new era, incorporating the carbon neutral development goal into the territorial spatial planning and construction and establishing the territorial spatial pattern and optimization strategy in line with the actual development of Gansu Province are of great significance for promoting the comprehensive green low-carbon transformation and high-quality development of regional economy and society. Taking counties in Gansu Province as an example, based on the perspective of carbon neutrality research, the land use carbon budget of 87 counties in Gansu Province in 2010, 2015, and 2021 was calculated and analyzed. GIS spatial analysis and social network analysis were used to further explore their spatial differentiation characteristics and the overall characteristics of the carbon emission spatial correlation network. At last, combined with the main function zoning, the low-carbon oriented land space optimization zoning was carried out, and differentiated low-carbon development strategies were proposed. The results were as follows： ① Carbon emissions in Gansu Province showed an upward trend, but the increase rate decreased, showing a spatial distribution of "high in the central and eastern part of the country, low in the southwest." Construction land was the main carbon source. The carbon uptake showed a spatial distribution of "high in the south and low in the north, high in the west and low in the east." Woodlands were the main carbon sinks. The net carbon emissions showed an increasing trend, and approximately 58.62% of the counties in the province were in a carbon imbalance situation. ② In 2021, the spatial network of county carbon emissions was closely related, showing a "core-edge" pattern. The Chenguan District and Qilihe District were in the core position of the network and received more correlation relationships in the network. The network contacts in Longzhong area were frequent, followed by the contacts in Longdongnan area. ③ Based on carbon emissions, carbon sequestration, and ecological carrying capacity coefficients and using the results of spatial correlation of social networks as role positions, the province was divided into four carbon-neutral sub-districts. At the same time, superimposed analysis of the main function zoning, the county area of the province was reconstructed into seven territorial space zones, and the differentiated regional low-carbon optimization development strategy was proposed for each zone.

Realizing low-carbon development of industrial parks in China: Model construction and its application

As the main energy consumption and emission area, carbon emission reduction for industrial parks is a pivotal target for China. In this study, a multi-objective optimization model was established to quantitatively develop low-carbon development strategies for industrial parks that simultaneously considers land productivity, energy structure and efficiency, carbon emissions, and industrial structure optimization. A Monte Carlo method was adopted to investigate the uncertainties associated with emission-reduction technologies and economic development. A study on an industrial park showed that with the implementation of a series of fossil energy-saving measures, the percentage of clean energy in the park is projected to reach 62.6–72.2 %, while the percentage of output from energy-intensive enterprises relative to the total output of the industrial park decreases from 3.78 % in the baseline year to 1.74–3.29 %, and carbon emissions are projected to decrease by 69–85.4 % relative to the benchmarking scenario. This implies that the model developed in this study is effective and can serve as a roadmap for designing industrial parks to realize low-carbon development.

Spatiotemporal evolutions and reasons of land-use carbon emissions in counties, Shaanxi Province, China

Global warming caused by factors such as the expansion of construction land poses a major threat to the sustainable development of China. As an important component of China's low-carbon development strategy, there is a relative lack of analysis of the spatial and temporal evolution of land-use carbon emissions and the influencing factors at county-level. In this study, we employed Emission-Factor Approach to estimate carbon emissions from land use in 107 counties, Shaanxi province, China. Our findings revealed construction land were the primary contributors to carbon emissions, showing a substantial increase from 2000 to 2020. There was positive spatial autocorrelation in carbon emissions among counties, forming distinct aggregation patterns around the City of Xi'an and both the southern and northern regions of Shaanxi. By utilizing the Spatial Durbin Error Model (SDEM), demographic factors emerged as key drivers of carbon emissions, indicating the significance of addressing population concentration to curb emissions. Furthermore, promoting coordinated development and adjusting the economic structure in different counties can mitigate both population concentration and carbon emissions. Emphasizing industrial development and investments can also effectively suppress carbon emissions. Additionally, managing transportation-related emissions can be achieved by enhancing public transportation services and regulating private car usage.

Technical and economic study of renewable-energy-powered system for a newly constructed city in China

The power and transportation sectors are major carbon emission sources of cities in China, meanwhile, urbanization and industrialization remain the most important impetus for the Chinese economy. Thus, urban-level carbon mitigation is critical for China to realize a low carbon development strategy. This study designs two renewable-energy power-generation dominated power systems for a totally newly built Chinese city, Xiongan, considering emerging technologies, such as vehicle-to-grid as an energy storage facility and geothermal as a local renewable energy resource. The new energy systems are assessed from both economic and carbon emission aspects based on short &long terms power load forecasts. The simulation results shows that the optimal short-term system is a photovoltaic (PV)/geothermal generator/grid purchase/100 Li battery/converter. For the short term, the system's net present cost (NPC) is approximately $8.26B, and the average cost of valuable electrical energy (COE) produced by the system is approximately $0.0942/kWh. The optimal long-term system is a PV/geothermal generator /V2G/ converter, the NPC of the optimal system is approximately $47.7B, and the COE of the system is approximately $0.078/kWh. Energy bill and carbon emissions can both be cut sharply for the city if it adopts these new types of renewable energy dominated systems.

County land use carbon emission and scenario prediction in Mianyang Science and Technology City New District, Sichuan Province, China

The role of carbon emissions resulting from land use change in the compilation of national greenhouse gas emission inventories is of paramount significance. This study is centered on the Mianyang Science and Technology City New Area located in Sichuan Province, China. We used the CLUE-S model and Sentinel-2A remote sensing data from 2017 to simulate and validate land use changes in 2022. Based on this validation, we established three simulation scenarios: a baseline scenario, an agricultural development scenario, and a construction development scenario. Using remote sensing data from 2022, we projected the land use for 2030. We also used CO2 concentration data collected in 2022 and 2023, processed the data using ArcGIS and Python, and conducted a quantitative analysis of carbon emissions under each scenario. Ultimately, the accuracy of both measured and predicted CO2 values for 2023 was juxtaposed and authenticated, thus concluding the investigative cycle of this study. Key findings include: (1) The accuracy of the CLUE-S model in the study area was assessed using overall accuracy, quantity disagreement and allocation disagreement indexes. In 2022, the overall accuracy is 98.19%, the quantity disagreement is 1.7%, and the allocation disagreement is 2.2%. (2) Distinct land resource utilization characteristics in scenarios, highlighting potential impacts on economic development and pollution. (3) Increased carbon emissions across scenarios, with construction development showing the highest rise (4.170%) and agricultural development the lowest (0.766%). (4) The predictive accuracy of the validation group's CO2 concentration values can reach 99.5%. This study proposes precise CO2 prediction at the county level, thus laying the groundwork for future research endeavors. Such findings are indispensable for informing carbon policy formulation and promoting low-carbon development strategies.