Realizing low-carbon development of industrial parks in China: Model construction and its application

Abstract

As the main energy consumption and emission area, carbon emission reduction for industrial parks is a pivotal target for China. In this study, a multi-objective optimization model was established to quantitatively develop low-carbon development strategies for industrial parks that simultaneously considers land productivity, energy structure and efficiency, carbon emissions, and industrial structure optimization. A Monte Carlo method was adopted to investigate the uncertainties associated with emission-reduction technologies and economic development. A study on an industrial park showed that with the implementation of a series of fossil energy-saving measures, the percentage of clean energy in the park is projected to reach 62.6–72.2 %, while the percentage of output from energy-intensive enterprises relative to the total output of the industrial park decreases from 3.78 % in the baseline year to 1.74–3.29 %, and carbon emissions are projected to decrease by 69–85.4 % relative to the benchmarking scenario. This implies that the model developed in this study is effective and can serve as a roadmap for designing industrial parks to realize low-carbon development.