Low Carbon Development Pathways Research Articles

Estimating terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage change in the YREB caused by land-use change under SSP-RCPs scenarios

Terrestrial ecosystems, as an essential carbon sink of atmospheric CO2, play an important role in balancing the global carbon cycle. Land-use and land-cover changes (LUCCs) are the major factors in terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage (TECS) change. However, they are not yet sure how future LUCCs would affect the TECS in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) to meet China's carbon-neutral goal. We simulated eight land-use change scenarios and used these to estimate the YREB's TECS and its 2020–2060 variation by coupling the spatially explicit projections of LUCCs under the latest IPCC, combining shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and representative concentration pathways (RCPs) with datasets on terrestrial ecosystem carbon density dataset. Results show that: 1) the total TECS of the YREB in 2020 is ∼28.07 Gt. Spatially, TECS in the YREB focused on Sichuan and Yunnan (∼13.35 Gt), which plays a crucial role in balancing the regional carbon cycle; its losses are in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Hunan provinces; Yunnan is the potential region with future carbon sink enhancement in the YREB. 2) Compared to the TECS change under eight land-use scenarios, the low-carbon and sustainable development pathways are the priority chosen by humans. 3) The replacement of vast forest land with cropland and urban expansion are the key factor of TECS change in the YREB. 4) Land management policies (i.e., Cultivated land requisition-compensation balance) should balance the conflicts between food self-sufficiency and the carbon sink rather than only the dynamic balance in quantity. Our study aims to provide data support for the government in planning future development pathways and refining carbon emission reduction strategies to assist in carbon trading and compensation and achieve the YREB's dual-carbon goal.

Exploring the green and low-carbon development pathway for an energy-intensive industrial park in China

Energy-intensive industrial parks (IPs) with the distinct characteristics of high energy consumption, substantial greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and huge pollution, are facing enormous pressure to realize the synergistic mitigation of GHG and air pollutants. Exploring the green and low-carbon transformation of energy-intensive IPs is urgently required to achieve the dual strategies of “carbon peaking and carbon neutrality” and “Beautiful China”. Taking a typical energy-intensive industrial park (IP) in Henan Province—the Red Flag Cannel Industrial Park (RFCP) as the research object, an integrated evaluation framework including multi-objective optimization model alongside the synergistic mitigation potential of carbon and air pollutant emissions, was established in the energy-intensive IPs. Five scenarios were designed to quantify the GHG and air pollutant mitigation potential, while synergistic emission reduction control effects were evaluated under four measures of industrial structure adjustment, energy structure adjustment, energy efficiency improvement, and industrial symbiosis. The scenario analysis indicates that the integrated scenario (S4) shows the most significant emission reduction potential by 2030. Compared to the baseline scenario (S0), the GHG emission reduction is 11.66 Mt CO2eq (53% reduction rate), and the emission reduction rate of air pollutants ranges from 38% to 69% in S4. The findings indicate that industrial structure adjustment and energy structure adjustment are the primary measures for reducing GHG and air pollutants of IPs. Additionally, the evaluation of synergistic effect demonstrates that industrial structure adjustment shows the most significant synergistic effect on GHG and air pollutant by 2030. Finally, some policy recommendations regarding the transformation direction of energy-intensive IPs were proposed. This study will provide valuable references for the green and low-carbon development of energy-intensive IPs.

Potentials of Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP)-Based Optimization for Low-Carbon Hydrogen Production and Development Pathways in China

Hydrogen (H2) is considered one of the main pillars for transforming the conventional “dark” energy system to a net-zero carbon or “green” energy system. This work reviewed the potential resources for producing low-carbon hydrogen in China, as well as the possible hydrogen production methods based on the available resources. The analysis and comparison of the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) for different hydrogen production pathways, and the optimal technology mixes to produce H2 in China from 2020 to 2050 were obtained using the mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) optimization model. The results were concluded as three major ones: (a) By 2050, the LCOH of solar- and onshore-wind-powered hydrogen will reach around 70–80 $/MWh, which is lower than the current H2 price and the future low-carbon H2 price. (b) Fuel costs (>40%) and capital investments (~20%) of different hydrogen technologies are the major cost components, and also are the major direction to further reduce the hydrogen price. (c) For the optimal hydrogen technology mix under the higher renewable ratio (70%) in 2050, the installed capacities of the renewable-powered electrolysers are all more than 200 GW, and the overall LCOH is 68.46 $/MWh. This value is higher than the LCOH (62.95 $/MWh) of the scenario with higher coal gasification with carbon capture and the storage (CG-CCS) ratio (>50%). Overall, this work is the first time that hydrogen production methods in China has been discussed comprehensively, as well as the acquisition of the optimal H2 production technology mix by the MILP optimization model, which can provide guidance on future hydrogen development pathways and technology development potential in China.

Multiple paths of green and low-carbon development in industrial parks: group analysis based on the TOE framework

The green and low-carbon development of industrial parks plays an important role in promoting industrial and technological agglomeration, How to optimise their green and low-carbon development pathways is an important management question to be answered, requiring the examination of multiple path based on a histological perspective. Based on the technology–organisation–environment framework, this study selected 29 state-level economic and technological development zones (ETDZs) in China as research objects, and explored multiple sets of paths using fuzzy set qualitative comparison and necessity-contribution analysis. The study found that: 1) four promotion paths can be adopted for green low-carbon development of the zones: endogenous drive, balanced promotion, core support drive and comprehensive drive; 2) single environmental factor does not constitute a bottleneck hindering the green low-carbon development of the zones, which should be combined with the actual situation of the zones, and the balanced enhancement of the effectiveness of green and low-carbon should be realised through measures such as industrial policy, environmental risk prevention, and performance assessment of green policies. Finally, the study proposes the following policy recommendations: industrial parks should focus on the key role of environmental risk prevention, apply a combination of measures in accordance with their own realities, and appropriate external pressure can help promote green and low-carbon development.

The green and low-carbon development pathways in the urban and rural building sector in Shaanxi Province, China

The scientific evaluation of carbon-emission trends and pathways for carbon reduction in China’s provincial buildings can play a crucial role in achieving the goals of carbon peaking and neutrality. In this study, a new carbon-emission simulation model was developed using a bottom-up approach for Shaanxi Province. The model incorporated various influencing factors, such as building area, building type, building-energy efficiency and energy-consumption structure, while quantifying the area parameters through building metabolism. This study combines relevant literature, policies and regional resource conditions to create a single scenario of carbon-reduction measures, including the application of green building materials, structural adjustments to building-energy consumption, improvements in building-energy efficiency and increased carbon sinks in buildings. We arranged and combined these scenarios into nine different combinations. We predicted the trends in carbon-emission changes in Shaanxi’s urban and rural buildings in the operational phase from 2020 to 2060 under single and combined scenarios; moreover, we quantified and analysed the carbon-reduction contributions of each carbon-reduction measure in the green and low-carbon realisation pathways of urban and rural buildings. The findings of this study revealed the following key points. (1) Structural adjustments to building-energy consumption have the greatest potential for carbon reduction and play a central role in achieving a green, low-carbon pathway. In the later stages of carbon-emission forecasting, when structural adjustments to building-energy consumption reach saturation, improvements in building-energy efficiency become crucial for influencing carbon-emission changes. (2) Through a carbon-reduction pathway centred on the improvement of building-energy efficiency and structural adjustments to building energy consumption, with green building material application and carbon sink increase as supporting measures, Shaanxi’s urban and rural buildings are expected to achieve carbon neutrality by around 2059, with carbon emissions of −902,200 tCO2. Under the China Development Goal of Carbon Neutrality for 2060, this is a green, low-carbon pathway for urban and rural buildings in Shaanxi Province. (3) In the green and low-carbon pathways for urban and rural buildings in Shaanxi Province, the top three contributors to carbon-emission reduction were increasing the share of green electricity applications (49.14%), reducing traditional energy consumption (18.56%) and increasing the proportion of new low-carbon buildings (16.81%). This study provides a scientific foundation and decision-making reference for the formulation of green and low-carbon development pathways for urban and rural construction in China’s Shaanxi Province.

Spatial–Temporal Characteristics of Carbon Emissions in Mixed-Use Villages: A Sustainable Development Study of the Yangtze River Delta, China

With the progression of novel urbanization, rural regions are increasingly characterized by mixed-use features, where work and living activities intersect, resulting in a significant surge in per capita carbon emissions. This research article aims to elucidate the spatio-temporal relationship of carbon emissions in rural areas and their association with mixed-use intensity from a sustainable development perspective. For the study, we selected four of the most representative mixed-use village types in the Yangtze River Delta region. Using the STING method, each rural space was delineated into micro-level mixed-use units. Subsequently, a quantitative evaluation model was constructed to gauge the relationship between mixed-use intensity and carbon emissions. This was complemented by employing GIS simulations to analyze the spatio-temporal attributes of carbon emissions in mixed-use villages. Our findings indicate that (1) different types of villages display considerable disparities in mixed-use intensity and carbon emissions. Their correlation also varies significantly, with traditional agricultural villages exhibiting the lowest values of 0.338 and 0.356, while E-commerce-centric villages recorded the highest at 0.674 and 0.653. (2) The carbon emissions of rural units manifest diverse patterns that include dispersed distribution, core aggregation, linear decay, and dissipative fragmentation. These correspond to traditional agriculture, industrial production, tourism service, and E-commerce villages, respectively. (3) The carbon emissions of mixed-use villages exhibit cyclical fluctuations over time, with different magnitudes observed across villages. Traditional agricultural villages display the smallest fluctuations (within 30%), while those centered around tourism services can experience fluctuations exceeding 150%. Building on these insights, we delved deep into the challenges faced by each village type in enhancing the quality of work and living while concurrently achieving energy conservation and emission reduction. Based on these aspects, we propose a sustainable low-carbon development pathway tailored for mixed-use villages.

Green innovation efficiency and multiple paths of urban sustainable development in China: multi-configuration analysis based on urban innovation ecosystem

Enhancing the effectiveness of urban green innovation is a powerful strategy for advancing urban sustainability. A strong urban innovation ecosystem is a crucial building block for advancing urban green innovation’s effectiveness. We use the fsQCA method to investigate the pathways and models of innovation ecosystems to promote the green innovation efficiency of cities from a histological perspective, using 71 innovative cities in China as cases. This method is based on the DEA-SBM model to measure the green innovation efficiency of cities and the Necessary Conditions Analysis. According to our analysis, individual innovation factors are not required to increase urban green innovation efficiency. But cities with good openness can attract creative forces and foster open innovation, which is essential for producing high levels of green innovation efficiency in cities. The innovation subject-balanced development model, the innovation environment-innovation asset dual drive model, and the innovation subject-open drive model have all been identified as additional models to support urban innovation efficiency. Finally, we discovered that it is not possible to increase the efficiency of green innovation in the city when each innovation factor in the city is performing poorly, and when there is also a lack of innovation subject and system openness. This study attempts to offer fresh theoretical angles and a variety of urban low-carbon development pathways.

Low-carbon development pathways for resource-based cities in China under the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.

Resource-based cities are important strategic bases for securing resources in China and have made great contributions to the country's economic development. Long-term extensive resource development has made resource-based cities an important region constraining China from achieving comprehensive low-carbon development. Therefore, it is of great significance to explore the low-carbon transition path of resource-based cities for their energy greening, industrial transformation, and high-quality economic development. This study compiled the CO2 emission inventory of resource-based cities in China from 2005 to 2017, explored the contribution to CO2 emissions from three perspectives (driver, industry, and city), and predicted the peak of CO2 emissions in resource-based cities. The results show that resource-based cities contribute 18.4% of the country's GDP and emit 44.4% of the country's CO2 and that economic growth and CO2 emissions have not yet been decoupled. The per capita CO2 emissions and emission intensity of resource-based cities are 1.8 times and 2.4 times higher than the national average, respectively. Economic growth and energy intensity are the biggest drivers and main inhibitors of CO2 emissions growth. Industrial restructuring has become the biggest inhibitor of CO2 emissions growth. Based on the different resource endowments, industrial structures, and socio-economic development levels of resource-based cities, we propose differentiated low-carbon transition pathways. This study can provide references for cities to develop differentiated low-carbon development paths under the "double carbon" target.

Low-carbon development pathways for provincial-level thermal power plants in China by mid-century

Phasing out thermal power plants is vital to combatting climate change. Less attention has been given to provincial-level thermal power plants, which are implementers of the policy of phasing out backward production capacity. To improve energy efficiency and reduce negative environmental impacts, this study proposes a bottom-up cost-optimal model to explore technology-oriented low-carbon development pathways for China's provincial-level thermal power plants. Taking 16 types of thermal power technologies into consideration, this study investigates the impacts of power demand, policy implementation, and technology maturity on energy consumption, pollutant emissions, and carbon emissions of power plants. The results show that an enhanced policy combined with a reduced thermal power demand would peak carbon emissions of the power industry at approximately 4.1 GtCO2 in 2023. Meanwhile, most of the inefficient coal-fired power technologies should be eliminated by 2030. Carbon capture and storage technology should be gradually promoted in Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Jilin after 2025. Energy-saving upgrades on 600 MW and 1000 MW ultra-supercritical technologies should be emphatically carried out in Anhui, Guangdong, and Zhejiang. By 2050, all thermal power will come from ultra-supercritical and other advanced technologies.

The heterogeneous driving forces behind carbon emissions change in 30 selective emerging economies

Emerging economies are predicted to be future emission hotspots due to expected levels of urbanization and industrialization, and their CO2 emissions are receiving more scrutiny. However, the driving forces underlying dynamic change in emissions are poorly understood, despite their crucial role in developing targeted mitigating pathways. We firstly compile energy-related emissions of 30 selective emerging economies from 2010 to 2018. Then, three growth patterns of emissions in these economies have been identified through emission data, which imply different low-carbon pathways. Most emerging economies saw an increase of varying degrees in emissions, driven by economic growth and partly offset by better energy efficiency and improvements in energy mixes. Furthermore, the industrial structure was another factor that slowed emissions, especially in Latin America and the Caribbean. Our research contributes to the heterogeneous exploration of CO2 emissions produced by energy among sectors and the creation of low-carbon development pathways in emerging economies.

“Harmonization” or “Fragmentation”: The Impact of Low-Carbon Policy Synergy on Inclusive Low-Carbon Development

To better address the inequities and inequalities brought by the monotonous approach to low-carbon development, it is necessary to actively explore inclusive low-carbon development (ILCD) pathways, and low-carbon policy (LCP) synergy plays a crucial role in ILCD. This paper manually collected LCP data from 30 provinces in China from 2010 to 2019 and conducted a study using text analysis to measure LCP subject synergy, LCP tool synergy, and LCP overall synergy. At the same time, an indicator analysis framework of ILCD was constructed to measure the efficiency of ILCD at the provincial level through the super-efficient SBM model. On this basis, the impact of LCP synergy on regional ILCD is explored to reveal its mechanism of action, and heterogeneity is explored. The results show the following: (1) In general, LCP subject synergy, LCP tool synergy and LCP overall synergy all effectively promote regional ILCD. (2) Both LCP subject synergy and LCP tool synergy are indispensable. Policy synergy can positively affect ILCD only when both policy subjects and policy instruments are highly synergistic, while ILCD is significantly weakened when both policy subjects and policy instruments are lowly synergistic. (3) The stronger the innovation capacity of provinces, the stronger the contribution of LCP synergy to ILCD. (4) In non-resource-based regions, the effect of LCP subject synergy on regional ILCD is more significant, and the effect of LCP tool synergy is not significant, while the opposite is true for resource-based regions. The study plays a certain reference significance for the government to improve LCP synergy and promote regional ILCD.

Climate justice in Vietnam’s green transformation: A three-dimensional analysis of the green growth and climate change mitigation sectors

Vietnam has been making great strides in promoting a low-carbon development pathway to ensure high growth rates, environmental protection, and fulfilment of international climate change commitments. These efforts are concretized in the form of a green transformation policy framework of which the most important components are the National Green Growth Strategy for the period 2021-2030 and the National Climate Change Strategy for the period up to 2050. As these policies employ an integrated approach that aim to achieve economic growth and climate change mitigation simultaneously, there is a possibility that the social pillar of sustainable development may be neglected, potentially leading to issues with equity and fairness in planning and implementing concrete missions and tasks. This article seeks to determine whether this is the case by assessing how three dimensions of climate justice -namely recognition justice, procedural justice and distributive justice - are reflected in the Green Growth and Climate Change Strategies.

Emission growth and drivers in Mainland Southeast Asian countries

Mainland Southeast Asian (MSEA) countries (Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, Myanmar, and Vietnam) are likely to become one of the next hotspots for emission reduction, since CO2 emissions in this area will have a two-thirds increase by 2040 due to rapid economy growth and associated energy consumption. As one of the most vulnerable areas to climate change, MSEA countries need to develop low-carbon roadmaps based on accurate emission data. This study provides emission inventories for MSEA countries for 2010-2019, based on the IPCC territorial emission accounting approach , including emissions from five types of fuels (i.e., coal, crude oil, oil products, natural gas, and biofuels & waste) used in 47 economic sectors. The results show that the emissions in MSEA countries are on the rise, with average annual growth rates ranging from 2.5% in Thailand to 19.3% in Laos. Biomass is one of the most important sources of carbon emissions, contributing between 11.8% and 76.7% of total carbon emissions, but its share has been declining in most countries, whereas the share of emissions from coal has risen sharply in Laos, Vietnam, and Cambodia. We further examine the drivers behind the changes in emissions using index decomposition analysis. Economic growth was the strongest driver of growth in emissions, while population growth has only had a small effect on emission growth. Energy intensity varies widely across nations, but only significantly reduced CO2 emission growth in Thailand. The secondary sector considerable contributed to an increase in CO2 emissions in Laos and Vietnam, while the tertiary sector only moderately contributed to emissions in Thailand. Our study provides a better understanding of the composition and underlying factors of emission growth in MSEA countries, this could shape their low-carbon development pathway. Our results could also inform other emerging economies, which may become emission hotspots in the next decades, to develop low-carbon roadmaps, thereby contributing to the achievement of global climate change targets.

The Carbon Emission Characteristics and Reduction Potential in Developing Areas: Case Study from Anhui Province, China

Global warming and world-wide climate change caused by increasing carbon emissions have attracted a widespread public attention, while anthropogenic activities account for most of these problems generated in the social economy. In order to comprehensively measure the levels of carbon emissions and carbon sinks in Anhui Province, the study adopted some specific carbon accounting methods to analyze and explore datasets from the following suggested five carbon emission sources of energy consumption, food consumption, cultivated land, ruminants and waste, and three carbon sink sources of forest, grassland and crops to compile the carbon emission inventory in Anhui Province. Based on the compiled carbon emission inventory, carbon emissions and carbon sink capacity were calculated from 2000 to 2019 in Anhui Province, China. Combined with ridge regression and scenario analysis, the STIRPAT model was used to evaluate and predict the regional carbon emission from 2020 to 2040 to explore the provincial low-carbon development pathways, and carbon emissions of various industrial sectors were systematically compared and analyzed. Results showed that carbon emissions increased rapidly from 2000 to 2019 and regional energy consumption was the primary source of carbon emissions in Anhui Province. There were significant differences found in the increasing carbon emissions among various industries. The consumption proportion of coal in the provincial energy consumption continued to decline, while the consumption of oil and electricity proceeded to increase. Furthermore, there were significant differences among different urban and rural energy structures, and the carbon emissions from waste incineration were increasing. Additionally, there is an inverted "U"-shape curve of correlation between carbon emission and economic development in line with the environmental Kuznets curve, whereas it indicated a "positive U"-shaped curve of correlation between carbon emission and urbanization rate. The local government should strengthen environmental governance, actively promote industrial transformation, and increase the proportion of clean energy in the energy production and consumption structures in Anhui Province. These also suggested a great potential of emission reduction with carbon sink in Anhui Province.

Climate–poverty connections: an evidence-based review of climate solutions that generate human benefit

BackgroundAddressing climate change and improving the wellbeing of people facing extreme poverty—two key aspects of planetary health—can and must be complimentary. The objective of this research is to provide decision makers with rigorous and concrete evidence of how climate solutions can also contribute to meeting development and human wellbeing needs in low-income and middle-income countries while improving planetary health. MethodsWe identified 28 solutions (from the 80 climate mitigation solutions that Project Drawdown has previously analysed) with potential to generate human wellbeing co-benefits for rural and under-resourced communities in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. We then used Doughnut Economics to develop a rigorous and consistent framework to analyse 12 dimensions of human wellbeing co-benefits generated by the climate solutions. Finally, we synthesised evidence of the human wellbeing co-benefits of the 28 climate solutions. FindingsDrawing on over 450 articles and reports, our landmark analysis shows that climate solutions generate vast direct and indirect co-benefits to human wellbeing, particularly around the domains of income and work, health, food, education, gender equality, and energy. For example, providing clean electricity and adopting clean cooking can address energy poverty and improve networks, health, and gender equality; increase income and work; and boost educational outcomes. In addition, improving agriculture and agroforestry can boost income and food and water security, and provide benefits for education, health, gender equality, and energy. Together, the climate solutions included in the report can prevent or reduce more than 600 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent between 2020 and 2050, while also boosting socioeconomic development. InterpretationPeople facing extreme poverty are often most vulnerable to climate change, although they are the least responsible for it. Investments in low-carbon development pathways that prioritise communities that are first and worst affected by climate change, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries, are key components of planetary health. In alignment with the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, we must coordinate strategies, complement funding, and harmonise policies to simultaneously address climate change, alleviate poverty, and boost human wellbeing while increasing resilience to current and future climate change. Our analysis shows a remarkable opportunity for decision makers, policy makers, and funders focused on climate change to work alongside women, young people, Indigenous peoples, and local communities to implement climate solutions that could make a drastic difference for the wellbeing of both people and the planet. FundingKing Philanthropies (Menlo Park, CA, USA).

Spatiotemporal dynamics and driving forces of city-level CO2 emissions in China from 2000 to 2019

Climate issues caused by energy consumption and related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from urbanization and industrialization have attracted growing attention worldwide. Accurate estimation of urban CO2 emissions and exploration of main driving factors behind are of great importance for achieving low-carbon development. In order to identify the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of CO2 emissions among Chinese cities, we integrate two kinds of nighttime light datasets and estimate CO2 emissions for 286 prefecture-level cities in China from 2000 to 2019, then characterize the spatiotemporal dynamics and their decoupling types with economic growth through Tapio decoupling model. Moreover, the random forest model and the partial dependence method are employed to explore the correlation between the urban CO2 emissions and thirteen socioeconomic driving factors, from which the key influencing factors are extracted. The results show that from 2000 to 2019, the total CO2 emissions of 286 prefecture-level cities increased and then fluctuated; meanwhile, the CO2 emissions intensity decreased, indicating that energy efficiency has been improved. Most cities with high emissions intensity and high per capita emissions agglomerated in the north China. The number of decoupling cities has increased, while that of coupling cities and negative decoupling cities has decreased. Regarding driving factors, economic development, industrialization, transportation, land urbanization, and the production and distribution of electricity, gas, and water were the leading socioeconomic factors driving the increase in CO2 emissions. This study has great theoretical and practical significance. It helps us not only to deeply understand the coupling relationship among resources, environment, and economic development but also to design effective low-carbon development pathways and improve urbanization quality.

A Green Economy Model for India: Technical Summary of Methods and Data Used

The green economy model for India is a system dynamics model that has been customized to the national context in the structure of the model and input data. It also takes into account the key priorities for the country, incorporating primary and allied sectors affecting climate change at the national level. The model has been developed jointly by World Resources Institute India and KnowlEdge Srl (Switzerland); it is based on a Green Economy Model (GEM) published by Andrea M. Bassi (Bassi 2015). The GEM has also been used in other countries to explore low-carbon development pathways; the model is customized to the context in which it is applied. The model is intended to provide tools for making informed policy decisions that would take India to a low-carbon development pathway. This technical note focuses on the structure of the model, the motivation behind developing it, and the data and assumptions accompanying it.

Effects of cumulative energy aid projects on renewable energy generation capacity

Development cooperation plays an important role in helping aid recipient countries follow low carbon development pathways. Although the nature of cooperation varies across donors and recipients, intentions of renewable energy technology diffusion and structural changes are common for projects in the energy sector. Aid projects promoting renewable energy in developing countries are seldom assessed through econometric methods as the varieties and differences across projects and countries limit generalization. This paper attempts to explore how cumulative number of renewable energy aid projects enhances generation capacity in recipient countries. Using fixed-effect models on such type of projects from 2000 to 2013, we examine the effects of cumulative energy aid project numbers and other control variables on the yearly changes in generation capacity. A positive and statistically significant relationship was found suggesting cumulative learning effect from implemented projects. Presence of host country policies was also found to be important for growth in capacity. Findings of this study adds to the debate of whether density of energy aid projects leads to donor competition or greater fragmentation. Insights from this study can also improve aid providers’ strategy for interventions in the energy sector of recipient countries.

Climate change mitigation on tropical peatlands: A triple burden for smallholder farmers in Indonesia

The agricultural use and conversion of tropical peatlands is considered a major source of land-based greenhouse gas emissions. Thus, the protection and restoration of tropical peatlands has recently turned into an important strategy to mitigate global climate change. Little research exists that has investigated the impacts and dynamics that such climate mitigation efforts evoke in local communities living in and around peatlands. We present insights on this from Sumatra, Indonesia and use a climate justice lens to evaluate local outcomes. We show how an increasingly transnational network of state and non-state actors has become involved in developing new laws, policy programs and land-use agreements on Sumatra’s coastal peatlands, aiming at supposedly win–win low-carbon development pathways. We argue that such efforts are open to much of the same criticism that has been raised regarding previous policies and projects aimed at reducing GHGE from deforestation and forest degradation. These projects disregard local perspectives on development, fail to deliver the promised benefits and, through a reconfiguration of local land-use rights, reduce the capabilities of smallholder farmers to benefit from their land. In sum, our analysis suggests that recent policies and projects aimed at mitigating GHGE from tropical peatlands contribute to a redistribution of the global climate mitigation burden onto smallholder farmers in Indonesia. This occurs through their threefold assignment to protect forests, prevent fires and help restore degraded peatlands.

Looking forward and back

Wind energy’s contribution to primary energy supply has increased in the past decade, while technology costs have decreased faster than predicted. New work finds that recent expert estimates of wind technology costs by 2050 are around half what they were in 2015, implying a bigger role for wind energy in low-carbon development pathways.