The heterogeneous driving forces behind carbon emissions change in 30 selective emerging economies

Abstract

Emerging economies are predicted to be future emission hotspots due to expected levels of urbanization and industrialization, and their CO2 emissions are receiving more scrutiny. However, the driving forces underlying dynamic change in emissions are poorly understood, despite their crucial role in developing targeted mitigating pathways. We firstly compile energy-related emissions of 30 selective emerging economies from 2010 to 2018. Then, three growth patterns of emissions in these economies have been identified through emission data, which imply different low-carbon pathways. Most emerging economies saw an increase of varying degrees in emissions, driven by economic growth and partly offset by better energy efficiency and improvements in energy mixes. Furthermore, the industrial structure was another factor that slowed emissions, especially in Latin America and the Caribbean. Our research contributes to the heterogeneous exploration of CO2 emissions produced by energy among sectors and the creation of low-carbon development pathways in emerging economies.