Lottery Procedure Research Articles

The practicalities of a partial lottery to allocate research funding

Abstract This article explores the practical dimension of organizing a partial lottery as an alternative funding allocation mechanism in academic institutions. Following an assessment of the recent literature that presents criticism of traditional ranking-based system derived from academic peer assessment and the need for improved decision-making procedures in research funding, we highlight four key arguments for organizing a partial lottery: improved decision quality (more fair, transparent, and divers), an alternative to ranking-based selection, prevention of questionable research practices, and increased efficiency. Based on our observations from a lottery-based ‘seed money call’ at Tilburg University, we provide insights into the organization and implementation of a lottery procedure, including the criteria for proposal eligibility, the administrative process, and the weighting mechanism based on budget categories. We furthermore share six lessons we learned that might be useful for future implementation in other institutional contexts, emphasizing the need for transparency, external supervision, and pre-registration of the lottery procedure to ensure trust and minimize gaming. As such, we not only contribute to the ongoing conceptual discussion about improving funding allocation mechanisms in academia. Our article also offers an account of how partial lotteries could be put into practice.

A Study on Social Support and Level of Depression among Alcohol Addicts” With Special Reference to Coimbatore Districts

Alcoholism is a major problem in India, and there is a large body of literature in India and the West devoted to understanding the marital dynamics involved in drinking and determining the negative effects that alcoholism can have on a spouse's personality and function. Alcoholism is a condition that develops over time and is frequently fatal. It is not a symptom of another sickness or emotional issue, but rather a distinct ailment. A person's size, weight, age, and sex, as well as the amount of food and alcohol ingested, all influence the effects of alcohol use. Even at low doses, alcohol can impair judgement and coordination dramatically. Alcohol in small to moderate dosages can potentially raise the risk of cancer. Low to moderate amounts of alcohol can enhance the likelihood of a number of aggressive behaviours, such as domestic violence and child abuse. Alcohol has a negative impact on not just an individual's physical health, but also on the people around him. Alcoholism is linked to a shattered family role, a breakdown in family communication, as well as physical and mental disorders. Methodology of Study: The current study used a descriptive research design and probability sampling as the sampling method. To obtain data from parents for this study, the researcher used a basic random sampling lottery procedure. An interview schedule was used to acquire a sample size of 60 people.

Rationales for a Lottery Among the Qualified to Select Medical Trainees: Decades of Dutch Experience

Rationales for a Lottery Among the Qualified to Select Medical Trainees: Decades of Dutch Experience

A comparative study of hybrid estimation distribution algorithms in solving the facility layout problem

The Estimation Distribution Algorithm (EDA) is an evolutionary algorithm that uses probabilistic models to create candidate solutions. Previous researchers have suggested various hybrid methods to avoid the premature convergence of EDA. This research conducts a comparative study between several variations of hybridization in EDA with regards to the descriptive statistics in the objective values.This study also proposes a new hybrid approach, named Adapted EDA (AEDA), by adapting the structure of EDA by adding a lottery procedure, an elitism strategy, and a neighborhood search. The proposed AEDA, several hybridizations of EDA, and Genetic Algorithm (GA) plus Tabu Search (TS) are applied to the facility layout design in manufacture – Enhanced Facility Layout Problem (EFLP) – to analyze their solutions. The hybrid EDAs that are being compared are EDA plus GA (EDAGA), EDA plus Particle Swarm Optimization (EDAPSO), the combination of EDAPSO plus TS (EDAhybrid), and AEDA. The experimental results show that the AEDA can significantly improves the solution quality in solving all the EFLP instances compared to other algorithms.

The Binary Lottery Procedure does not induce risk neutrality in the Holt & Laury and Eckel & Grossman tasks

Abstract We test whether the binary lottery procedure makes participants behave as if they are risk neutral in the Holt and Laury (2002) and Eckel and Grossman (2002) tasks. Depending on the task, we find that less than half of the participants behave as if risk neutral. In fact, when we compare the distribution of choices, we find no significant difference to standard experiments that did not use the binary lottery procedure. Using a structural model we find modest evidence that the binary lottery procedure might move participants at least slightly towards risk neutrality.

Bachelor completion and dropout rates of selected, rejected and lottery-admitted medical students in the Netherlands

BackgroundEvidence for the effectiveness of the selection of medical students is weak. This study aimed to examine the added value of a two-step selection procedure (first step non-academic, second step academic tests) to a pre-university GPA-based lottery procedure. Because previous research has suggested that participation in selection (regardless of the outcome) is a predictor of study success, this study is the first to include students who initially applied for selection, then refrained from (actively) participating in selection and were eventually admitted through lottery.MethodsBachelor completion and dropout rates of selected (n = 416) and lottery-admitted students from four cohorts (2006–2009) were compared using logistic regression analysis. Four groups of lottery-admitted students were distinguished: students who were rejected after step 2 (n = 57), were rejected after step 1 (n = 169), withdrew during selection step 1 (n = 42) and students who only applied for lottery (n = 366). Covariates included gender, age, pre-university GPA and cohort.ResultsThere was a significant association between admission group and obtaining a bachelor degree in three years. Selected students were more likely to obtain a bachelor degree within three years (64.2% versus 51.6%; OR = 1.7) or four years (81.5% versus 74.3%; OR = 1.6) than students who only applied to a lottery (p < 0.05); selected students also seemed more likely to obtain all Year-1 course credits than students who withdrew during step 1 (40.4% versus 21.4%; OR = 2.3; p < 0.05). We found no significant association between dropout and admission groups. Students rejected at step 1 or 2 did not perform significantly different from selected students on any of the outcome measures.ConclusionsThe findings indicated that students at risk for study delay in the preclinical phase in our context were more likely to refrain from applying to a demanding selection procedure when a less demanding alternative was available. We found no significant associations between the non-academic and academic selection steps and bachelor completion and dropout rates. These findings suggest that the presence of the selection was more important than these specific selection components. In follow-up research, we plan to investigate the associations between the admission groups and outcome measures in the clinical phase.

Selection and lottery in medical school admissions: who gains and who loses?

This article was migrated. The article was marked as recommended. Concerns related to fairness of medical school admissions through selection have led some scholars to consider selection as an expensive lottery and suggest that lottery may be fairer. This paper considers the issue of selection versus lottery from the perspectives of three groups of stakeholders: 1) applicants, 2) medical schools, and 3) society. This paper contributes to the discussion by addressing advantages and disadvantages of the use of selection and lottery for these stakeholder groups, grounded in the findings from research. Themes that are discussed are reliability and validity issues, perceived influence on selection outcomes and student uptake, effects on student diversity, financial costs, impact on rejected applicants, transparency, and strategic behaviour. For each stakeholder group both lottery and selection yield a combination of advantages and disadvantages, which implies that none of the currently available admissions strategies completely fulfils stakeholders' needs. Research indicates that selection yields only small gains compared to a lottery procedure, while the student diversity, necessary for serving the increasingly diverse patient population, may be compromised. We argue that society's needs should drive admissions policies rather than institutional gains, which means that until a selection procedure is developed that does not disadvantage certain types of students, a lottery procedure should be preferred.

Does selection pay off? A cost-benefit comparison of medical school selection and lottery systems.

ContextResources for medical education are becoming more constrained, whereas accountability in medical education is increasing. In this constrictive environment, medical schools need to consider and justify their selection procedures in terms of costs and benefits. To date, there have been no studies focusing on this aspect of selection.ObjectivesWe aimed to examine and compare the costs and benefits of two different approaches to admission into medical school: a tailored, multimethod selection process versus a lottery procedure. Our goal was to assess the relative effectiveness of each approach and to compare these in terms of benefits and costs from the perspective of the medical school.MethodsThe study was conducted at Maastricht University Medical School, at which the selection process and a weighted lottery procedure ran in parallel for 3 years (2011–2013). The costs and benefits of the selection process were compared with those of the lottery procedure over three student cohorts throughout the Bachelor's programme. The extra costs of selection represented the monetary investment of the medical school in conducting the selection procedure; the benefits were derived from the increase in income generated by the prevention of dropout and the reductions in extra costs facilitated by decreases in the repetition of blocks and objective structured clinical examinations.ResultsThe tailor‐made selection procedure cost about €139 000 when extrapolated to a full cohort of students (n = 286). The lottery procedure came with negligible costs for the medical school. However, the average benefits of selection compared with the lottery system added up to almost €207 000.ConclusionsThis study not only shows that conducting a cost–benefit comparison is feasible in the context of selection for medical school, but also that an ‘expensive’ selection process can be cost‐beneficial in comparison with an ‘inexpensive’ lottery system. We encourage other medical schools to examine the cost‐effectiveness of their own selection processes in relation to student outcomes in order to extend knowledge on this important topic.

PEKK-made indirect temporary crowns and bridges: a clinical pilot study.

The aim of the present study was to find out whether the high-performance polymer PEKK is an equivalent alternative compared to cobalt chrome (CoCr)-made restorations, regarding to biocompatibility, stability, and comfort. Twenty-two patients (m, 10; f, 12) who were indicated for a long-term temporary-fixed restoration were included. They were randomized through a lottery procedure into two groups: the first group was restored with veneered PEKK-made crowns and bridges (Pekkton ivory), while the second group was restored with veneered CoCr crowns. Clinical parameters (plaque index (PI), probing depth (PD), fracture, and chipping) were documented in a period of 3-5months from the insertion of restoration. Furthermore, every patient completed the OHIP-14 questionnaire. An exchange of the restorations from the first to the alternative material was performed after a period of 3-5months. All patients showed an improvement of the oral hygiene and probing depth after insertion of the temporary restorations. However, there were no significant differences between PEKK and CoCr-made restorations (P> 0.05). There was no chipping after 5months for both kinds of materials. There was a noticeable reduction of pain and discomfort of patients after insertion of temporary restorations. However, there were no significant differences between the two materials (P> 0.05). PEKK-made temporary restorations offer a good and stable alternative to CoCr-made restorations. They have a high aesthetical advantage over CoCr restoration. Esthetic and price-efficient temporary crowns can be offered for the patient during periodontal therapy to improve its success, in particular by improving the oral hygiene.

A multi-site study on medical school selection, performance, motivation and engagement

Medical schools seek ways to improve their admissions strategies, since the available methods prove to be suboptimal for selecting the best and most motivated students. In this multi-site cross-sectional questionnaire study, we examined the value of (different) selection procedures compared to a weighted lottery procedure, which includes direct admission based on top pre-university grade point averages (≥8 out of 10; top-pu-GPA). We also considered whether students had participated in selection, prior to being admitted through weighted lottery. Year-1 (pre-clinical) and Year-4 (clinical) students completed standard validated questionnaires measuring quality of motivation (Academic Self-regulation Questionnaire), strength of motivation (Strength of Motivation for Medical School-Revised) and engagement (Utrecht Work Engagement Scale-Student). Performance data comprised GPA and course credits in Year-1 and clerkship performance in Year-4. Regression analyses were performed. The response rate was 35% (387 Year-1 and 273 Year-4 students). Top-pu-GPA students outperformed selected students. Selected Year-1 students reported higher strength of motivation than top-pu-GPA students. Selected students did not outperform or show better quality of motivation and engagement than lottery-admitted students. Participation in selection was associated with higher engagement and better clerkship performance in Year-4. GPA, course credits and strength of motivation in Year-1 differed between students admitted through different selection procedures. Top-pu-GPA students perform best in the medical study. The few and small differences found raise questions about the added value of an extensive selection procedure compared to a weighted lottery procedure. Findings have to be interpreted with caution because of a low response rate and small group sizes.

Eliciting subjective probabilities with binary lotteries

We evaluate a binary lottery procedure for inducing risk neutral behavior in a subjective belief elicitation task. Prior research has shown this procedure to robustly induce risk neutrality when subjects are given a single risk task defined over objective probabilities. Drawing a sample from the same subject population, we find evidence that the binary lottery procedure also induces linear utility in a subjective probability elicitation task using the Quadratic Scoring Rule. We also show that the binary lottery procedure can induce direct revelation of subjective probabilities in subjects with popular non-expected utility preference representations that satisfy weak conditions.

Competitive Insurance Markets and Adverse Selection in the Lab

We provide an experimental analysis of competitive insurance markets with adverse selection. Our parameterised version of the lemons’ model of Akerlof in the insurance context predicts total crowding-out of low risks when insurers offer a single full insurance contract. The therapy proposed by Rothschild and Stiglitz consists of adding a partial insurance contract so as to obtain self-selection of risks. We test the theoretical predictions of these two models in two experiments. A clean test is obtained by matching the parameters of these experiments and by controlling for the risk neutrality of insurers and the common risk aversion of their clients by means of the binary lottery procedure. The results reveal a partial crowding-out of low risks in the first experiment. Crowding-out is not eliminated in the second experiment and it is not even significantly reduced. Finally, instead of the predicted separating equilibrium, we find pooling equilibria. The latter can be sustained because insureds who objectively differ in their risk level do not perceive themselves as being so much different.

Strategy Proof Scoring Rule Lotteries for Multiple Winners

AbstractWe develop a lottery procedure for selecting multiple winners that is strategy proof. The rule assigns points to each candidate based on any standard scoring rule method, and then uses one draw to select a single winning set of candidates in proportion to their collective score. In addition to being strategy proof, the lottery rule is also shown to have several other attractive normative properties. Violations of some other important normative properties are noted as well.

Simulation Analysis for Choice of Binary Lotteries

In this paper, we discuss the development of a simulation system with artificial autonomous adaptive agents that select one out of a given pair of binary lotteries, as represented by probability distributions over two outcomes. The agent's decisions are made by a learning classifier system, and after classifying the information of a given pair of binary lotteries, the agent chooses one of them. The condition part of a classifier consists of two types of conditions: the conditions identifying probabilities and payoffs of a given pair of binary lotteries, and the conditions identifying characteristics of the lotteries known by several models that describe the behavioral regularities of choices under risk. We compare the result of the simulation with that of the experiment by Selten et al. (Theory Decis 46:211---249, 1999), and demonstrate the similarity between them. From the similarity, we consider a mechanism of human choices under risk. Finally, we examine the possibility of controlling a subject's preference with respect to risky events using the lottery ticket procedure in laboratory experiments.

The “play-out” effect and preference reversals: Evidence for noisy maximization

In this paper, we document a “play-out” effect in preference reversal experiments. We compare data where preferences are elicited using (1) purely hypothetical gambles, (2) played-out, but unpaid gambles and (3) played-out gambles with truth-revealing monetary payments. We ask whether a model of stable preferences with random errors (e.g., expected utility with errors) can explain the data. The model is strongly rejected in data collected using purely hypothetical gambles. However, simply playing-out the gambles, even in the absence of payments, shifts the data pattern so that noisy maximization is no longer rejected. Inducing risk preferences using a lottery procedure, using monetary incentives or both shift the data pattern further so that noisy maximization achieves the best possible fit to the aggregate data. No model could fit the data better. We argue that play-out shifts the response pattern by inducing value because subjects can use outcomes to “keep score.” Induction or monetary payments create stronger induced values, shifting the pattern further.

Inducing risk neutral preferences with binary lotteries: A reconsideration

We evaluate the binary lottery procedure for inducing risk neutral behavior. We strip the experimental implementation down to bare bones, taking care to avoid any potentially confounding assumptions about behavior having to be made. In particular, our evaluation does not rely on the assumed validity of any strategic equilibrium behavior, or even the customary independence axiom. We show that subjects sampled from our population are generally risk averse when lotteries are defined over monetary outcomes, and that the binary lottery procedure does indeed induce a statistically significant shift toward risk neutrality. This striking result generalizes to the case in which subjects make several lottery choices and one is selected for payment.

Competitive Insurance Markets and Adverse Selection in the Lab

We provide an experimental analysis of competitive insurance markets with adverse selection. Our parameterized version of the lemons’ model (Akerlof 1970) in the insurance context predicts total crowding out of low-risks when insurers offer a single full insurance contract. The therapy proposed by Rothschild and Stiglitz (1976) to solve this major inefficiency consists of adding a partial insurance contract so as to obtain a self-selection of risks. We test the theoretical predictions of these two well-known models in two experiments. A clean test is obtained by matching the parameters of the two experiments and by controlling for the risk neutrality of insurers and the common risk aversion of their clients by means of the binary lottery procedure. The results reveal a partial crowding out of low risks in the first experiment. Crowding out is not eliminated in the second experiment and it is not even significantly reduced. Finally, instead of the predicted separating equilibrium, we find pooling equilibria. We interpret these results by observing that, in any period, some high risks do not purchase full insurance at lower than fair price and some low risks purchase insurance at a price higher than their induced willingness to pay. These robust findings are inconsistent with expected utility maximization. The observed distortion of probabilities leads to a partial homogenization of perceived risks.

The predictive validity of grade point average scores in a partial lottery medical school admission system

To ascertain whether the grade point average (GPA) of school-leaving examinations is related to study success, career development and scientific performance. The problem of restriction of range was expected to be partially reduced due to the use of a national lottery system weighted in favour of students with higher GPAs. We studied the students (n = 398) admitted to the Faculty of Medicine, University of Groningen, the Netherlands in 1982 and 1983. Data concerning drop-out and study progress were derived from the student administration. Data about career development were obtained from annual interviews with graduates (n = 318) between 1993 and 2000. Literature searches yielded data concerning scientific performance. Multiple linear regression and logistic regression were used to analyse the data. The variables 'gender' and 'cohort' and their interaction were included in the analyses to account for variation in the general level of the dependent variable and the effect of GPA on the dependent variable. GPA scores had no effect on drop-out rate. High GPA scores were associated with significantly less time to graduation, more chance of a preferred placement for specialist training and higher scientific output. GPA was not related to income. Gender differences were found for study duration and scientific output. Women graduated earlier and published less. The GPA of school-leaving examinations was found to be related to study success, career development and scientific performance. In this study the usual problem of restriction of range was shown to be absent. The weighted lottery procedure even resulted in an over-dispersion of candidates relative to the applicants. The resulting effect sizes were in agreement with those reported in other studies.

COURTEOUS SERVICE: ITS ASSESSMENT AND MODIFICATION IN A HUMAN SERVICE ORGANIZATION

We evaluated strategies to increase behaviors associated with courteous provision of service by 3 staff members of a human service agency. Training included written instructions, practice, and performance feedback. A lottery procedure was introduced to maintain courteous service after training. The results of a multiple baseline design across the 3 participants showed marked increases in courteous behaviors following training. These effects were maintained at 3-, 5-, and 8-month follow-ups. Consumers' satisfaction with service also increased. These findings suggest that simple training and reinforcement procedures can enhance courtesy afforded those who receive service from public and nonprofit organizations.

Social skills training in groups for alcoholics: One-year treatment outcome for groups and individuals

In an experimental comparison, 24 inpatients at an Alcoholism Treatment Center with the DSM-III diagnosis alcohol dependence (alcoholism) were randomly assigned to a Social Skills Training Group (SSTG) or a Control Group (CG). Both groups received, in addition, the traditional treatment program at the institution. Self-report questionnaires, as well as questionnaires for significant others, were used to get biweekly information after discharge on current drinking habits, working days, and nights slept home. A lottery procedure ensured an extremely high return rate of questionnaires during 1 year follow-up (23 of 24 clients returned all questionnaires). SSTG clients drank on the average 2 3 of the amount of pure alcohol or its equivalent (740 cl, that is 14.2 cl/week) that the CG clients did (1196 cl, that is 23.0 cl/week) during 1 year follow-up after discharge. SSTG clients had twice as many sober days (281 or 77% compared to 116 or 32%) and working days (223 or 97% compared to 104 or 45%). The average length of abstinence period after discharge were 51.6 days for SSTG and 8.3 for CG clients. All SSTG clients had drunk after 143 days, and all CG clients after 31 days. During drinking days, however, SSTG had drunk almost twice as much as CG clients. The average number of nights slept home were 345 (95%) for the SSTG versus 316 (87%) for the CG. In addition to group data, detailed individual data are also presented.