Loss Of Grasslands Research Articles

Land Use/Land Cover Change (2000–2014) in the Rio de la Plata Grasslands: An Analysis Based on MODIS NDVI Time Series

Latin America in general and the Rio de la Plata Grasslands (RPG) in particular, are one of the regions in the world with the highest rates of change in land use/land cover (LULC) in recent times. Despite the magnitude of this change process, LULC descriptions in the RPG are far from being complete, even more those that evaluate LULC change through time. In this work we described LULC and its changes over time for the first 14 years of the 21st century and for the entire grassland biome of the Rio de la Plata, one of the most extensive grassland regions in the world. We performed simple but exhaustive classifications at regional level based on vegetation phenology, using extensive LULC field database, time series of MODIS NDVI satellite images and decision trees classifiers, generating an annual map for all RPG. The used technique achieved very good levels of accuracy at the regional (94.3%–95.5%) and sub-regional (78.2%–97.6%) scales, with commission and omission errors generally low (Min = 0.6, Max = 10.3, Median = 5.7, and Min = 0, Max = 41.8, Median = 6.8 for regional and sub regional classification respectively) and evenly distributed, but fails when LULC classifications are generated in years when the climate is very different from those used to generate spectral signatures and train decision trees, or when the NDVI time series accumulates large volumes of lost data. Our results show that the RPG are immersed in a strong process of land use change, mainly due to the advance of the agricultural frontier and at the expense of loss of grassland areas. The agricultural area increased 23% in the analyzed period, adding over than 50,000 Km2 of new crops. Most agricultural expansion, and therefore the greatest losses of grassland, concentrates on both sides of Uruguay river (Mesopotamic Pampa and the western portion of Southern and Northern Campos) and the western portion of Inland Pampa. The generated maps open the door for more detailed and spatially explicit modeling of many important aspects of ecosystem functioning, for quantification in the provision of ecosystem services and for more efficient management of natural resources.

Habitat transformation and climate change: Implications for the distribution, population status, and colony extinction of Southern Bald Ibis (Geronticus calvus) in southern Africa

Abstract Habitat transformation and loss is one of the greatest threats currently facing avian species. The cumulative impact of climate change on habitat loss is projected to produce disproportionate risk for endemic high-altitude species. The Southern Bald Ibis (Geronticus calvus) is an endemic high-altitude species found throughout highland grassland habitats in South Africa and Lesotho. The historical distribution has contracted notably and causal factors remain ambiguous. Furthermore, the historical population (1950–1970) was believed to be stable, but recent local surveys suggest colony declines and the current global population status remains largely unquantified. We assessed the current distribution and population status of the species through predictive modeling and trends in historical and recent colony counts across the species’ range. We examined climate and habitat change as potential causal factors contributing to the historical contraction in distribution, and projected the potential impact of future climate change predicted by global circulation models. Our study confirms that Southern Bald Ibis are of conservation concern. The loss of grasslands to expanding woody vegetation through bush encroachment was the most detrimental habitat transformation type associated with decreased colony growth and colony collapse. We recommend maintaining a minimum threshold of 50% or greater intact grassland habitat surrounding colonies to reduce colony extinction risk and promote colony persistence.

Preventing traditional management can cause grassland loss within 30 years in southern Brazil

Woody encroachment threatens several ecosystems around the world. In general, management of grasslands includes regulation of fire and grazing regimes. Changes in these two types of disturbances are potential drivers of woody encroachment. Here we assessed how the traditional management carried out by local landholders affects a highland grassland ecosystem in southern Brazil. We hypothesized that grasslands converted to protected areas undergo fast woody encroachment. To reconstruct changes in vegetation, we interviewed former and current landholders and coupled their knowledge with an analysis of aerial and satellite images. During the first 11 years without fire and cattle, woody encroachment in grasslands increased exponentially. Woody encroachment occurred mostly by the replacement of grasslands by shrublands. Meanwhile, grasslands under traditional management remained almost unchanged for the last 40 years. The management of fire by local landholders has been part of their traditional practices for decades. Such management prevents large-scale wildfires and maintains natural highland grasslands. The quick pace of shrub encroachment in such grasslands threatens its exclusive diversity, human well-being and regional cultural heritage. Thus, conservation policies are needed to regulate and instruct about the use of fire as a management tool in highland grasslands of southern Brazil.

The role of economic returns in land use change: Evidence from farm-level data in the US Northern Great Plains

Conversion of grassland to cropland in the US Prairie Pothole Region is of longstanding concern. The region9s grasslands are carbon (C) sinks and provide important breeding grounds for many migratory bird species. Crop production requires more input use, potentially increasing pollution in the greater Mississippi watershed. Previous analyses of land conversion in the Prairie Pothole Region generally invoke neoclassical economic models and typically use secondary data to assess conversion decisions. To more deeply investigate farmers9 land use choices, we use data from focus group meetings to learn about their conversion decisions, conversion costs, and motives. Farmers mentioned profit-related factors frequently as a factor in their land use decisions. However, our respondents who converted to cropland report conversion costs to be well below estimated increases in land value. This suggests that those who choose not to convert land forego such gains, and thus financial motivations may be far from complete in explaining land conversion decisions. We found several quantitative indications that other factors might be crucial in preventing more grassland losses: (1) for those who converted from grass to crop, the gain in returns is so large that conversion costs could be recovered in one year; (2) for those who converted from crop to grass, the gain was negative; and (3) lifestyle choices and stewardship opinions were found to be statistically significant in land use decisions. Thus, nonmarket factors, including lifestyle choice and stewardship perspectives, may be important determinants of land use decisions and act to slow the rate of conversion to cropping.

Accelerating savanna degradation threatens the Maasai Mara socio-ecological system

Savanna megafauna have become scarce outside of protected areas in Africa, largely because of land conversion for farming (smallholders and agribusiness) and expansion of settlements and other infrastructure. Intensification also isolates protected areas, even affecting natural processes within reserve boundaries. Here, we used satellite imagery from the past 32 years in the iconic Maasai Mara ecosystem to assess the capacity of different land tenures to prevent degradation. We compare unprotected land with two types of conservation management: fully protected land without livestock (land sparing) and semi-protected community-based conservation – protected land with regulated livestock densities (land sharing). On unprotected land (61% of the area), we detected massive and accelerating degradation and fragmentation of natural vegetation, with large losses of woodland (62%) and grassland (56%), resulting in the expansion of bare ground. In contrast, directional change was minimal in both types of protected areas. Vegetation resistance to drought was lowest on unprotected land, intermediate under community-based conservation and highest under full protection. Our results show that the Mara ecosystem is under heavy pressure, but that conservation management counteracts negative trends. Importantly, semi-protected community-based land-sharing conservation offers clear, partial buffering against degradation.

Changes in land use affect anuran helminths in the South Brazilian grasslands

Degradation and habitat loss of natural grasslands in Southern Brazil has a negative impact on native organisms, potentially including the composition of anuran helminth communities. Here, we characterized the richness, abundance, taxonomic composition, prevalence and intensity of helminth infection in four anuran species. Host anurans were collected in 34 ponds (19 in native grasslands with livestock and 15 in agricultural cultivation) from the highland grasslands in the Brazilian states of Santa Catarina and Paraná. Our results showed a significant difference between native grasslands with livestock and agricultural cultivation regarding the structure of helminth communities for the hosts Aplastodiscus perviridis and Pseudis cardosoi. We also found a greater prevalence and intensity of infection in anurans in areas of agricultural cultivation than in native grasslands with livestock. We found that the environmental descriptors (local and landscape) seem to explain most of the differences in anuran parasitism recorded between native grasslands with livestock and agricultural areas. Thus, we emphasized that the loss of grassy habitat due to conversion to agricultural cultivation can alter helminth communities in anurans, with further work needed to understand the mechanisms involved.

Grassland management for meadow birds in the Netherlands is unfavourable to pollinators

Agricultural intensification and loss of semi-natural grassland have contributed to biodiversity decline, including pollinator species, in pastures around the world. To reverse the decline, agri-environmental schemes have been implemented, varying widely in effectiveness. In addition, many countries, including the Netherlands, have established nature reserves in which semi-natural grasslands are restored and are often managed for specific groups of species, e.g. meadow birds or plants. The effects of such measures on insect biodiversity are not well known but recent reports on the dramatic decline of insect biomass in nature reserves have put even more attention to the impact of land use and management on biodiversity. This study compares pollinator abundance and species richness in three common semi-natural grassland management types in the Netherlands: (1) hay meadows, (2) herb-rich grasslands and (3) meadow bird grasslands. Pollinator abundance and species richness were assessed in eleven study areas, each with all three management types present. Standardized transects, insect sampling within a standard 20min time frame and plot-based flower surveys were used in spring and summer to assess the relationships between management regime, floral abundance and diversity and pollinator communities. The results show that meadow bird grasslands have lower pollinator abundance and diversity and a less unique pollinator assemblage than both other types. Moreover, flower abundance has a positive effect on pollinator abundance and flower diversity has a positive effect on pollinator species richness. These results indicate that meadow-bird grasslands are a comparatively unfavourable habitat for bees, hoverflies and butterflies, which may be explained by a lack of flowers as well as unsuitable mowing practices. Measures benefitting both insectivorous birds and flower-visiting insects, such as rotational mowing, could remediate this imbalance.

Modeling changes in China’s 2000–2030 carbon stock caused by land use change

Abstract Land use change featured by rapid urban expansion and the loss of forests and grasslands can lead to substantial carbon emissions that contribute to greenhouse heating. We propose a cellular automata model to predict land use scenarios and use these to estimate China’s total carbon stock and its 2000–2030 variation. The results show that the total carbon stock of Chinese terrestrial ecosystems is ∼98 Gt. The total quantity decreases by 0.2% and the annual carbon emissions related to land use change decreases slightly during 2000–2030. Urban expansion in developed areas is the leading cause of carbon emissions, accounting for more than one-quarter of the carbon emissions in these areas. In other areas, the loss of forests and grasslands is the leading cause of carbon emissions, accounting for more than half of the emissions in these areas. In a few sub-regions, an increase of carbon stock is found that can be linked to environmental policies like Grain-for-Green. These improve our understanding of long-term changes in China’s carbon stock and its drivers as they relate to land use change. Ultimately, this work should help governments to adjust land use policies, to refine carbon emission reduction strategies, and to construct and implement better regulations using feedbacks from the model.

Restoration of upland hay meadows over an 11‐year chronosequence: an evaluation of the success of green hay transfer

Grassland restoration has become a key tool in addressing the drastic losses of seminatural grassland since the mid‐twentieth century. This study examined the restoration by green hay transfer of upland hay meadows, a particularly scarce and vulnerable habitat, over an 11‐year chronosequence. The community composition of 18 restoration meadows was compared with that of donor reference sites in two study areas in the Pennine region of northern England. The study investigated: differences in community composition between donor and restoration meadows; transfer of upland hay meadow target species; and the effect of time and isolation from neighboring meadows on the community composition of the restoration meadows. Results showed that restoration meadows differed from donor meadows in that some target species were easily transferred whilst others were not found in the restoration meadows, or were at low levels of cover. Time had a significant effect on the community composition of the restoration meadows, but the similarity between restoration sites and donor sites did not increase with time, and the effect of isolation was not significant. The study showed that the green hay transfer method increases botanical diversity and is an important first step in meadow restoration. However, further restoration activity, such as seed addition, is likely to be required if restoration sites are to resemble closely the reference donor sites.

Clasificación del uso de suelo y vegetación en áreas de pérdida de cobertura arbórea (2000–2016) en la cuenca del río Usumacinta

A escala mundial, la mayor parte de los estudios sobre la pérdida de cobertura arbórea se enfocan en cuantificarla por medio de técnicas de percepción remota. Dichas estimaciones frecuentemente omiten la información del tipo de uso de suelo y vegetación, por lo que limitan el entendimiento de las pérdidas ocurridas para cada una de estas clases. Con el fin de conocer cuáles han sido las comunidades vegetales más afectadas por el proceso de pérdida de cobertura arbórea en el periodo 2000–2016 en la cuenca del Usumacinta en este estudio se analizaron de manera simultánea dos fuentes de información disponibles: la Serie II de Uso de suelo y vegetación del Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía de México (Inegi, 2001) y la evaluación del cambio en la cobertura forestal a escala global (Hansen et al., 2013). Los resultados indican que de las 347 317.68 ha de cobertura arbórea perdidas entre el 2000 y 2016 en la cuenca, 62% correspondió a tres categorías: la selva alta perennifolia (SAP, 26%), uno de los tipos de vegetación más biodiversos del país; la vegetación secundaria de selva alta perennifolia (VSSAP, 19.1%) y el pastizal cultivado inducido (PCI, 17.0%), una clase fuertemente transformada por las actividades antrópicas. Las pérdidas de la SAP y de la VSSAP se concentraron principalmente en la porción media y media/alta de la cuenca, respectivamente, mientras que la del PCI en la parte baja. De manera opuesta, las clases de vegetación con menor pérdida de cobertura arbórea fueron también las menos representadas en superficie en la cuenca. Los resultados derivados de este trabajo servirán para identificar los sistemas más amenazados y orientar las acciones de conservación en la región.

A 137-Year History of the Summer Avian Community at the Winous Point Marsh, Port Clinton, Ohio, USA

The Winous Point Marsh Conservancy and the Winous Point Shooting Club, with landholdings in both Sandusky and Ottawa Counties, Ohio, has completed a survey of the summer resident bird population on the property 4 times spanning 137 years. Although achieving a true census is unrealistic, these surveys have provided a unique, long-term history of changes in the avian community in northwest Ohio since the 1880s. Surveys were completed in 1880, 1930, 1960, and 2017. Draining and deforestation of the wetlands in northwest Ohio, by the late 1870s, resulted in the loss of many forested-wetland dependent species such as Blue-gray Gnatcatcher (Polioptila caerulea), Solitary Sandpiper (Tringa solitaria), and Northern Waterthrush (Parkesia noveboracensis) after the 1880 survey. Intensification of agricultural practices after the 1930 survey likely resulted in the loss of the early successional habitat that was associated with smaller, less intensive, agricultural practices and consequently the loss of many grassland nesting species such as Bobolink (Dolichonyx oryzivorus), Eastern Meadowlark (Sturnella magna), Northern Bobwhite (Colinus virginianus), Blue-winged Teal (Anas discors), Northern Pintail (Anas acuta), and Northern Shoveler (Anas clypeata). Several new species were documented during the 2017 survey including Osprey (Pandion haliaetus), Sandhill Crane (Antigone canadensis), Trumpeter Swan (Cygnus buccinator), and American White Pelican (Pelecanus erythrorhynchos). This long-term dataset provides a unique opportunity to investigate the avian immigration, extirpation, and recolonization of a specific site over the past 137 years, providing insight into how landscape-level habitat changes affected the avian community.

Impact of human activities and climate change on the grassland dynamics under different regime policies in the Mongolian Plateau

To mitigate the grassland degradation in the Mongolian Plateau (MP), both China and Mongolia governments have carried out a series of new policies and ecological projects. However, the effect of such restoration measures on the productivity of grassland in the MP under different political systems remains unclear. Here we study the effects of land use and land cover change, human activities and climate change on the net primary productivity (NPP) of grassland in Mongolia (MG) and Inner Mongolia (IM) from 2001 to 2014. Results showed that the area of grassland increased in both MG and IM, accounted for 4.45 × 104 and 10.31 × 104 km2, respectively. The extended grassland contributed 4.34 × 108 Gg C (Gg = 109 g) to the total NPP, while the loss of grassland led to a decrease of 0.19 × 108 Gg C. The total NPP of grasslands in 2014 increased about 17.88% and 30.49% respectively in MG and IM since 2001. Specifically, IM exhibited a higher increase in land converted NPP than MG. The area of grassland restoration in IM and MG accounted for 90.21% and 81.45%, respectively, indicating that the grassland of the MP was restored. Although human activity was the dominant factor on grassland degradation, which was accounted for 9.79% and 18.55% in IM and MG, it has a positive effect on most of the grassland NPP in the MP. Overall, policy measures and ecological projects in IM brought a more positive effect compared with that in MG.

A comparison of bird communities in natural and revegetated grasslands in south Brazil

Natural grasslands are declining due to loss, fragmentation and degradation, resulting in the decline of grassland-associated bird species. The Pampas Biome in south Brazil is not exception to this worldwide trend, facing the expansion of croplands and afforestation with exotic tree plantations for cellulose production. To cope with the continuous degradation and loss of grasslands, restoration is an important conservation strategy, but basic information regarding the response of the fauna to restoration practices in southeastern South America grasslands is lacking. Here we compared the structure of bird communities in natural grasslands and revegetated grasslands after mining by planting native and exotic grasses. We sampled birds using 5-min point counts with unlimited radius in three replicates of each habitat (natural and revegetated grasslands; average size 22.2 ± 2.3 ha). We also compared the vegetation density between the two habitat types. The structure of bird communities at natural and revegetated grasslands differed, with natural grasslands presenting higher species richness (42 vs. 35 species) and abundance (1459 vs. 839 records) than revegetated areas, and also a distinct species composition. Ten of the 11 grassland species that were associated to one of the two habitat types occurred more frequently in natural grasslands, which had higher vegetation density than revegetated areas. Even a decade after the beginning of the restoration process, revegetated areas did not resemble natural grasslands in bird species richness, abundance, and composition. These results differed from another study conducted in the Brazilian Pampas in which native plant species were used to actively restore a grassland. Therefore, until we have additional studies addressing the use of exotic grasses for the recovery of bird communities in South America grasslands, we encourage greater representation of native plant species in restoration projects.

Functional diversity is a passenger but not driver of drought‐related plant diversity losses in annual grasslands

Abstract Effects of climate change on plant community functional diversity are of interest since experiments have found functional diversity to predict ecosystem function. Functional diversity has been hypothesized to confer resilience to plant communities (as a “driver” of community change), but in unmanipulated natural communities, it might alternatively (or additionally) act as a “passenger” by responding to changes in plant diversity caused by extrinsic factors such as climate. We examined trends in plant functional diversity in annual grasslands in Northern California over a 19‐year period, during which a trend towards drier winters had previously been associated with the losses of drought‐intolerant species. We tested whether functional diversity decreased over the period of the study (acting as a passenger), and also whether initial site functional diversity influenced the degree of community change over the study period (acting as a driver). Initial community functional diversity was not related to species richness loss or community variability. We found that functional diversity declined as plant species richness and community mean specific leaf area declined over the course of the study, and all of these trends were associated with declining precipitation, indicating that functional diversity acted as a passenger of community change. Synthesis. This study is among the first to demonstrate that recent climatic trends may drive loss of functional diversity. Our findings highlight that functional diversity does not necessarily confer community resilience when its variation is shaped by the environment rather than by experimental treatments.

Diverse policies leading to contrasting impacts on land cover and ecosystem services in Northeast China

Abstract Understanding where important ecosystem services originate in space and how they change in time is essential for sustainable ecosystem management. Spatially explicit information of integrated changes in land cover and ecosystem services impacted by diverse policies has been unavailable in Northeast China, limiting the improvement of human well-being. Therefore, this study integrated remote sensing, meteorological records, and statistical data to evaluate the impacts of policies on land cover and ecosystem services from 2000 to 2015. The results reveal that diverse policies induced both notable changes in land cover, as well as geospatially varied changes in ecosystem services. Specifically, agricultural cultivation was still the dominant factor driving the losses of woodland, grassland, and wetland, while large areas of croplands have been returned to natural land cover, including a net area increase in woodland (2256 km2). Cropland expansion occurred at the expense of wetland (7121 km2), while the expansion of built-up land was converted primarily from cropland (62.8%). Marked decrease in water yield was observed, while sandstorm prevention, habitat suitability, and grain production have been enhanced on the scale of Northeast China. Moreover, soil retention and ecosystem carbon stock decreased slightly. In terms of present policies and changes in ecosystem services, it is important to rethink the emphasis on food production, reduce policy-driven natural ecosystem losses, and enhance the effectiveness of ecological projects. The findings are expected to help achieve win-win outcomes between ecological conservation and social-economic development in Northeast China.

Fauna of nocturnal moth species collected in a semi-natural grassland at Kanpu-zan in northern Japan.

Semi-natural grasslands, which house species-rich ecosystems, have rapidly declined since the twentieth century due to land-use practices, such as agricultural intensification and abandonment. Owing to their diversity and known habitat associations, nocturnal moths are considered as one of the most suitable organisms to be studied for assessing the dynamics of species composition as a result of changes in landscape management of semi-natural grasslands. The present study provides the foremost description of nocturnal moth fauna of the semi-natural grassland at Kanpu-zan, northern Japan. Moth population data from 1987 were compared to the data collected in 2018 to evaluate the impact of decline in grasslands on species-richness. During the field sampling in 2018, a total of 226 nocturnal moth species were detected, which was nearly two-thirds of the number of species recorded in 1987, i.e. 396 species. The values obtained in 2018 were found to be nearly constant for different sites. For both periods, it was evident that moth fauna in Kanpu-zan mainly consisted of species that relied on woody plants. Amongst the species which were only recorded in 1987, 107 species were generalists that fed on plants that are commonly distributed in Kanpu-zan. No moth species were recorded that depended upon endangered or extinct plant food sources. Thus, it is unlikely that the decline in the number of moth species in Kanpu-zan was due to the loss in plant food sources. Our results suggest that environmental factors other than food plants may have caused decline and changes in nocturnal moth fauna. More studies on various organism fauna are needed for understanding the conservation of semi-natural grassland, considering that the loss of semi-natural grasslands is one of the major threats to biodiversity.

Deforestation and loss of bushland and grassland primarily due to expansion of cultivation in mainland Tanzania (1995–2010)

ABSTRACT Information on land use and cover changes (LUCC) is important for planning of conservation and development and thus ensure forest sustainability. The current paper assesses LUCC for the whole of the mainland Tanzania. The analyses were done using land use and cover maps covering the whole of mainland Tanzania for 1995 and 2010. For 1995, forest, bushland, grassland, cultivation and other land use and cover (built up areas, bare land, etc.) covered 43.5%, 19.8%, 23.5%, 11.2%, and 2.0% of the study area, respectively. For 2010, the same land use and cover classes covered 38.0%, 14.5%, 6.9%, 36.5%, and 4.1% of the study area, respectively. The annual rate of deforestation was 320,067 ha, which is equivalent to 0.9%. Bushland and grassland were lost at 313,745 and 969,982 ha/year, respectively. Most forest was converted to cultivation and least to other land use and cover. In conclusion, the net changes were deforestation and loss of bushland and grassland primarily due to expansion of cultivation. Further research on how to reduce or halt expansion of cultivation may shed light on improving sustainability of forest, bushland, and grassland in mainland Tanzania.

Remote Observation in Habitat Suitability Changes for Waterbirds in the West Songnen Plain, China

Being one of the most important habitats for waterbirds, China’s West Songnen Plain has experienced substantial damage to its ecosystem, especially the loss and degradation of wetlands and grasslands due to anthropogenic disturbances and climate change. These occurrences have led to an obvious decrease in waterbird species and overall population size. Periodic and timely monitoring of changes in habitat suitability and understanding the potential driving factors for waterbirds are essential for maintaining regional ecological security. In this study, land cover changes from 2000 to 2015 in this eco-sensitive plain were examined using Landsat images and an object-based classification method. Four groups of environmental factors, including human disturbance, water situation, food availability, and shelter safety, characterized by remote sensing data were selected to develop a habitat suitability index (HSI) for assessing habitat suitability for waterbirds. HSI was further classified into four grades (optimum, good, general, and poor), and their spatiotemporal patterns were documented from 2000 to 2015. Our results revealed that cropland expansion and wetland shrinkage were the dominant land cover changes. Waterbird habitat areas in the optimum grade experienced a sharp decline by 7195 km2. The habitat area in good suitability experienced reduction at a change rate of −8.64%, from 38,672 km2 to 35,331 km2. In addition, waterbird habitats in the general and poor grades increased overall by 10.31%. More specifically, the total habitat areas with optimum suitable grade, in five national nature reserves over the study region, decreased by 12.21%, while habitat areas with poor suitable grade increased by 3.89%. Changes in habitat suitability could be largely attributed to the increase in human disturbance, including agricultural cultivation from wetlands and grasslands and the expansion of built-up lands. Our findings indicate that additional attention should be directed towards reducing human impact on habitat suitability for sustainable ecosystems.

Corruption and conflicts as barriers to adaptive governance: Water governance in dryland systems in the Rio del Carmen watershed

Water governance in the Rio del Carmen watershed has failed to achieve sustainable water use, generating social conflicts, water overexploitation, and grassland loss. This leaves it unable to adapt and learn, to reconcile different stakeholder perspectives and to adequately respond to uncertainty. Adaptive water governance regulates water access through flexible, inclusive and innovative institutions, increasing system adaptive capacity in the face of uncertainty. This is necessary for water-scarce systems since they suffer context-specific exposure to land degradation and climate change. This research focuses on how water governance regulates water access in the Rio del Carmen watershed, Mexico, identifying key legal and institutional features that could increase adaptation and secure water resources in the long-term. 27 semi-structured interviews were conducted with key stakeholders in the watershed, in order to understand the water governance structure and its system dynamics. It was found that water mismanagement, overexploitation, and conflicts over access to water are due to the lack of application and neglect of formal rules. Results indicate that breaches of the legal framework are commonplace, permitted by corruption of both former and current government officials. Many farmers have institutionalized this corruption in order to access water; increasing social conflicts and hindering any type of planning or water management, which, in turn, continues to affect the ecological conditions of the watershed. By understanding the governance system, its structure and the interactions that weaken and bypass formal institutions to the detriment of water resources, stakeholder engagement has emerged as an entry point for enabling collaboration and acceptance of formal institutions. This process has the potential to create a formal network, as a Watershed Committee, that could be honoured in practice through the efficacy of this engagement.

Simulating and forecasting spatio-temporal characteristic of land-use/cover change with numerical model and remote sensing: a case study in Fuxian Lake Basin, China

ABSTRACT The land-use/cover (LUC) change (LUCC) in small-scale basins can strongly impact regional environments and developments, and understanding the spatio-temporal characteristics of LUCC is important for sustainable development planning. This study explored the spatio-temporal characteristics of China’s Fuxian Lake Basin in 2017–2067, which may provide decision-making support for ecological and environmental protection measures. Landsat-7 ETM+ and Landsat-8 OLI images combined with a cellular automata–Markov model were used to simulate and forecast LUCC, and expand analysis and reduce analysis methods were applied to explore the spatio-temporal patterns of LUCC in this basin. The results showed that in 2017–2067: (1) arable land, forestland and water would be expected to expand; (2) garden, grassland, building region, road, structure, artificial piling and digging land, and desert and bare surface would contract; (3) the rate of arable land expansion in 2032–2037 and the rate of grassland loss in 2057–2062 would be the largest changes, reaching 1.670 and 0.856 km2/year, respectively and (4) the expansion and contraction of different LUCC classes were closely related to the “Four Retire Three Return” policy implemented by the local government. Therefore, the protection measures for environment should be set in advance according to the forecasting results of this study.