Ecosystem Services Value Loss Research Articles

Spatiotemporal Eolution and Prediction of Ecosystem Service Value in Taihang Mountains Based on MCCA Land Use Scenario Simulation

Ecosystem service value （ESV） is an important indicator related to regional ecological well-being, and understanding its evolution can provide references for regional ecological civilization construction and sustainable development. The Taihang Mountains, an important ecological security barrier in North China, were taken as an example. Based on land use data from 2000 to 2020, this study revealed the changes in land use and ecosystem service value in the Taihang Mountains and conducted multi-scenario simulations of ESV in 2035. Additionally, the land use transfer matrix, improved equivalent factor method, and mixed-cell cellular automata model were used. The results showed that： ① From 2000 to 2020, the main land use types in the Taihang Mountains were cropland, forest land, and grassland. The area of cropland and grassland significantly decreased, whereas the area of forest land and construction land remained stable. The scale of land use transfer was 2.06×104 km2, with a high intensity of transfer from cropland and grassland to other areas, mainly guided by ecological construction. ② The ecosystem service functions in the Taihang Mountains were mainly dominated by regulation services, and the overall ESV showed a stable upward trend, increasing by 1.51×1010 RMB from 2000 to 2020. The spatial distribution of ESV was uneven, and the polarization phenomenon was evident, with high-value areas concentrated in the high-altitude areas in the northern and central-southern parts and low-value areas mostly located in the flat foothills and central plateaus on both sides. They were greatly influenced by human activities. ③ By 2035, compared with that in 2020, the ESV in the Taihang Mountains was projected to increase by 5.37 billion RMB in the natural growth scenario, 4.34 billion RMB in the urban development scenario, and 7.64 billion RMB in the ecological tourism scenario, mainly due to the conversion from cropland and grassland to forest land. The natural growth scenario showed a high intensity of spatial transformation of ESV, the urban development scenario experienced severe ESV loss in cropland, and the ecological tourism scenario showed a significant increase in ESV, which was an effective path for promoting green development in the Taihang Mountains. The research results can provide scientific references for the healthy management and sustainable development of the ecosystem in the Taihang Mountains.

The Ecological Economics of Light Pollution: Impacts on Ecosystem Service Value

Light pollution has detrimental impacts on wildlife, human health, and ecosystem functions and services. This paper explores the impact of light pollution on the value of ecosystem services. We use the Simplified All-Sky Light Pollution Ratio (sALR) as a proxy for the negative impact of light pollution and the Copernicus PROBA-V Global Landcover Database as our proxy of ecosystem service value based on previously published ecosystem service values associated with a variety of landcovers. We use the sALR value to ‘degrade’ the value of ecosystem services. This results in a 40% reduction in ecosystem service value in those areas of the world with maximum levels of light pollution. Using this methodology, the estimate of the annual loss of ecosystem service value due to light pollution is USD 3.4 trillion. This represents roughly 3% of the total global value of ecosystem services and 3% of the global GDP, estimated at roughly USD 100 trillion in 2022. A summary of how these losses are distributed amongst the world’s countries and landcovers is also presented.

Ecosystem Service Value Changes in Response to Land Use Dynamics in Lithuania

Changes in land cover affect ecosystems and the services they provide. The aim of this study was to assess the spatial changes in land use from 1990 to 2018 and analyze the changes in ecosystem service value (ESV) in response to the changes in landscape structure in Lithuania. Croplands provided the majority of the ESV, followed by forests, grasslands, and wetlands. The total ESV in Lithuania was USD 29 billion year−1 in 2018, and land use had a significant impact on ESV, with a total decrease of USD 438 million year−1 between 1990 and 2018. The total ESV change was mainly influenced by the decrease in provisioning (USD 426 million year−1) and regulating (USD 208 million year−1) services. The reduction in cropland area was a major factor in the loss of ESV. The increase in the value of habitat and cultural services was not large enough to offset the reduction of the ESV. The highest elasticities were in the urban municipalities, indicating a significant change in ESV due to land use change. The results of this study provide valuable insight into the potential of the sustainable management and regeneration of ecosystems.

Spatio-temporal relationship between carbon emission and ecosystem service value under land use change: a case study of the Guanzhong Plain Urban Agglomeration, China

Changes in land use restructuring significantly impact carbon emissions and the provision of ecosystem service value (ESV). This study focuses on the Guanzhong Plain Urban Agglomeration, and accounts for carbon emissions and ecosystem service values caused by land use in the years 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020. Carbon sources, carbon sinks, net carbon emission intensity, and ESV intensity were introduced as research variables and the spatial and temporal divergence and correlation patterns between them were examined. The results show that: 1) The carbon emission intensity of land use in the Guanzhong Plain Urban Agglomeration has increased significantly over the study period, showing a distribution pattern of high intensity in the centra regions and low intensity in the surrounding regions. Construction land was identified as the largest carbon source. 2) The overall ESV follows an increasing trend, with the total value increasing from 215,263.7 million to 216,776.2 million. The distribution of ESV intensity is low in the central regions and high in the surrounding regions, and significant changes were observed in the ESV loss and gain intensity of farmland and water body. 3) Carbon emissions and ESV show a significant negative spatial correlation, and both are dominated by low-high and high-low aggregation patterns. A spatial spillover effect of carbon emissions on ESV was observed. Through the correlation analysis of carbon emissions and ESV, theoretical support is provided for promoting regional low-carbon green development and eco-economic synergistic development.

Analysis of Spatial and Temporal Variability of Ecosystem Service Values and Their Spatial Correlation in Xinjiang, China

Xinjiang is located in arid northwest China, which is a key area for promoting the high-quality development of the regional ecological environment. In recent years, against a background of increasing human activities and rapid natural changes, Xinjiang has faced enormous ecological challenges. This paper utilizes land-use data from 2000 to 2020 to verify the region’s current state of the ecosystem. Additionally, it uses the value equivalent factor per unit area, ecosystem service value (ESV) loss and gain matrix, and double-factor spatial autocorrelation analysis to study the spatial and temporal variabilities of ESV in Xinjiang and its attribution to spatial correlation. The results show that (1) the ESV in Xinjiang exhibits an overall increasing trend during 2000–2020, with a total increase of about CNY 18.202 billion. Regulation-service ESV takes the main position in the single-service function, accounting for about 67.18% of the total ESV. In northern Xinjiang, the ESV demonstrates a decreasing trend, dropping by about CNY 16.885 billion, while in southern Xinjiang, the ESV shows an increasing trend, rising by CNY 35.086 billion. (2) For the study period, the main loss of ESV in Xinjiang is the conversion of ecological land with a high ESV into cropland or barren land with a low ESV. The conversion of bare land to grassland led to the largest increase in ESV (about CNY 209.308 billion), whereas the conversion of grassland to barren land led to the largest loss (about CNY 183.046 billion). (3) There are positive correlations among ESV, net primary productivity (NPP), and human activity intensity (HAI). However, all of the relationships weaken year by year. The spatial agglomeration of ESV ∩ NPP is significantly greater than that of ESV ∩ HAI, so NPP is the dominant factor in the spatial correlation of ESV in Xinjiang. The findings of this study provide a scientific basis for promoting high-quality regional ecological development in China’s arid northwest.

Implications of changes in land use for ecosystem service values of two highly eroded watersheds in Lake Abaya Chamo sub-basin, Ethiopia

Ecosystems provide a variety of ecosystem services and functions for mankind, and their sustainable use plays an important role in livelihoods. However, the resulting land degradation due to land use and land cover changes leads to loss of valuable ecosystems and associated ecosystem functions and services. This study takes two highly degraded watersheds, Aba-Bora and Guder, in Ethiopia and uses the value transfer valuation method to estimate changes in ecosystem service values. The study shows how loss of cropland and grazing lands can significantly affect ecosystem services even when plantations and shrubland increase. The results suggest that over a period of 41 years, the ecosystem service value of exclosures/shrublands and plantations increased, whereas that of crop and grazing lands decreased. The loss of ecosystem service values due to the decrease in cropland and grazing lands outweigh the gains due to the expansion of plantations and exclosures and resulted in a total loss of ecosystem service values of US$ 1.6 million in Aba-Bora watershed and US$ 24.4 million in Guder. In both watersheds, the greatest contributor to ecosystem service loss was a decline in supporting services, while the increase in plantation and shrublands (mainly through establishment of exclosures) meant that regulating ecosystem services suffered the smallest loss. Given their importance to livelihoods in these areas, the loss in crop and grazing lands significantly increase the vulnerability to shocks and narrow future livelihood options for many households. Given that severe gully erosion is the major contributor to the reduction in crop and grazing lands, catchment management that integrates the conservation of upstream areas using diverse sustainable land management practices, and gully rehabilitation measures in downstream areas could be an important option to reducing the expansion of big gullies, and conserving crop and grazing lands and ecosystem service values. However, the results suggest that the risks to livelihoods may be underestimated while the effectiveness of current actions to address land degradation over-estimated by communities.

Land Use Change Scenario Building Combining Agricultural Development Policies, Landscape-Planning Approaches, and Ecosystem Service Assessment: A Case Study from the Campania Region (Italy)

In the last two centuries, land-use change (LUC) has been the most important direct change driver for terrestrial ecosystems. In contrast with the consequent ecosystem degradation, forward-looking spatial policies and target landscape and land-use planning processes are needed from a sustainability perspective. The present paper proposes a framework of action, including different landscape-planning and ecological approaches: from spatial modelling to recognize LUC and build different scenarios, to ecosystem service (ES) assessment to evaluate possible environmental impacts. Three different scenarios were explored: Trend, No Tillage, and Energy crops. The sediment delivery ratio and carbon storage and sequestration ESs were assessed and compared for each scenario. The results show that regional development in line with past trends could lead to further land degradation (with ES value losses, in a decade, greater than 5%). Instead, the two scenarios proposed in compliance with EU policies could bring benefits, if only those related to moderate LUCs and respecting the naturally grass-vegetated land. The aim of the paper is to support decision makers and local communities in the landscape planning landscape planning process. From the local to global scale, guided and shared LUC management allows us to implement sustainable development, based not only on a deep knowledge of the physical environment but also of social and economic issues.

Land use and land cover changes and their impact on ecosystem service values in the north-eastern highlands of Ethiopia.

The land use and land cover (LULC) changes driven by the growing demands of mankind have a considerable effect on ecosystem services and functions. The study was carried out in the north-eastern highlands of Ethiopia to (1) analyze the effect of LULC changes between 1984 and 2021 and (2) assess the spatiotemporal variations in ecosystem service values (ESVs) and elasticity in response to LULC changes. Using Landsat imageries from 1984 to 2021, the spatiotemporal changes in LULC were evaluated with supervised image classification using maximum likelihood algorithm in ArcGIS software. Six LULC types were subsequently categorized, with overall accuracy and Kappa coefficients above 87% and 0.87, respectively. The ESVs were then estimated based on the Benefit Value Transfer (BVT) approach employing modified conservative value coefficients. The findings revealed a significant increase in cultivated land (9759.1ha) and built-up area (10174.41ha) during the stipulated periods and a drop in other land use types. The forest loss gradually decreased from 4.1% in the second period (1991-2001) to 0.58% in the third (2001-2021), compared to the first of the 1.1% conversion rates. Similarly, the proportion of grassland and water bodies steadily reduced over the stipulated periods, by 1.15% and 2.3% per annum, respectively. The overall loss of ESVs in the study landscape was estimated to be 54.4 million US$ (67.3%), drastically decreasing from 80.3 million US$ in 1984 to 26.4 million US$ in 2021, driven by the declining area coverage of water bodies, grassland, and forestland. Regardless of the loss, the ecosystem functions of hydrological regulation (37.2, 35.0, 6.1, and 5.1 US$ ha-1yr-1), water supply (14.5, 13.6, 2.4, and 2 US$ ha-1yr-1), and food production (9.8, 10.0, 9.1, and 9.9 US$ ha-1yr-1) contributed the most to the total ESV of each year while disturbance regulation and cultural values were the least throughout the study periods. The coefficient of sensitivity (CS) analysis revealed that our estimates were relatively robust. The findings further showed that human-dominated land-uses at the expense of natural ecosystems are the primary drivers of LULC transitions and the ensuing loss of ecosystem services in the region. Thus, this calls for intensive work on more effective land use policies that encourage an integrated management approach, with a focus on safeguarding the sustainability of natural ecosystems.

The Impact of Land Use Change on The Ecosystem Service Value of The Agricultural Pastoral Ecotone

Understanding the dynamics and relationships among ecosystem services value (ESV) and land use change (LUCC) has great importance to achieve sustainable development. In this study, taking Jishishan County as the research area, based on land use and socio-economic data from 2010 to 2020, estimate the ESV and explore the impact of LUCC on the ESV at the grid scale. The results indicate that:(1) From 2010 to 2020, Jishishan County was deeply affected by urbanization, resulting in a continuous decrease in arable land and forest land. (2) The Ecosystem Service Value (ESV) of Jishishan County showed a trend of decreasing firstily and then increasing over the past 10 years; Grassland is the main contributor to ESV.(3) The spatial differentiation of ESV is obvious, showing a pattern of low in the middle and high in the periphery. (4) The growth of ESV during the research period comes from the increase of grassland and water area, and the loss of ESV and the impact of urbanization expansion are related to the reduction of forest area.

Analysis of the gains and losses of ecosystem service value under land use change and zoning in Qiqihar

Under a background of uncoordinated economic development and the ecological environment, quantifying the ecological effect brought by land resource changes, have become research key and hotspots. To explore land use change and its impact on ecosystem service value (ESV), the land use change analysis method, ecosystem service evaluation model, flow direction analysis model and two-dimensional graph theory clustering method were used to analyze the profit and loss of ESV in Qiqihar in 2010 and 2020 and the division of ecological function areas with counties as units. The results show that: 1) The land use change in Qiqihar city is more obvious, Among them, the area of cultivated land, wetland, construction land and other increases, Woodland, grassland, water area decreased, The changed land area accounts for 30.95% of the total area; 2) The ESV in Qiqihar city increased by 869 million yuan, The sum of the value of cultivated land and wetland exceeded 70.0% of the ESV, is the main source of ESV in Qiqihar city; 3) Not all land-use shifts are conducive to ESV growth. The increase of ESV mainly comes from the flow of cultivated land and grassland to the wetland; Conversion of woodlands, water area, wetlands to other types causes ESV loss, the most loss is the conversion of wetlands to cultivated land; 4) Qiqihar city is divided into the central wetland ecological conservation area, the western characteristic agriculture and dotted wetland ecological function area, and the northeast agricultural ecological environment construction functional area. Three policies were proposed to improve ESV:(1) give play to the radiation role of wetland nature reserves; (2) popularize the black land protection technology model; and (3) prevent and control agricultural non-point source pollution and promote clean agriculture.

Impact of expanded built-up land on ecosystem service value by considering regional interactions

During rapid economic development and urbanisation, land expansion in built-up areas is China's dominant land-use change type, resulting in the loss of ecosystem service value (ESV). Economic development is China's main driving force for built-up land expansion. Under the trend of the spatial separation of production and consumption, expanded built-up land embodied in trade flows between regions as a scarce land resource. Through trade, a region can indirectly use built-up land from outside areas, which may affect land use within the user and provider regions. Regional ESV loss may be affected by outer regions, although previous studies have seldom considered it. Accordingly, this study quantified ESV for the whole of China in high resolution and determined ESV loss caused by expanded built-up land for each province and ESV loss flows embodied in interregional interactions. The results found that China's total ESV of terrestrial ecosystems was 37.44 trillion yuan in 2015, and the expanded built-up land resulted in a loss of 13.7 billion yuan in ESV. Due to the north–south differences in natural and economic levels in China, there was significant spatial heterogeneity in ESV and ESV loss caused by built-up land expansion, with the high-value areas mainly in the southern coastal areas. With regional interaction, the leading regional flow direction of built-up land and ESV loss was from north to south, mainly from economically developing regions to economically developed regions. However, there was a discrepancy between the actual users of the built-up land and the ESV loss-bearers. Evident regional inequalities existed in several provinces with regional interactions. Overall, this study provides a reference for developing China's interregional economic and ecological harmony strategies in the context of sustainable development.

Multi-scenario simulation and optimization control of ecological security based on GeoSOS-FLUS model in ecological fragile area in northeast Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China

Under the dual influence of climate change and human activities, the structure and function of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau ecosystem have undergone profound changes, and its ecological security has been a frequent focus of academic attention. The calculation of the ecological security bottom line (ESBL) is an essential step in the study of ecological security. However, the current calculation of the ESBL in the ecologically fragile areas of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTPEFA) has been carried out only from the perspective of supply, and research from the perspective of demand has been largely ignored. Therefore, taking Qinghai Province as study case, this paper exploratively calculated the ESBL from the perspective of supply and demand in combination with food security standards. Simulation of future trends in land-use change and ecosystem service value (ESV) evolution based on GeoSOS-FLUS under four scenarios, i.e., natural development (ND), ecological protection (EP), cultivated land protection (CLP) and dual protection (DP), we explored which protection measures move the ESV closer to the demand ecological security bottom line (DESBL) to provide reasonable suggestions for eco-protection policies. The results showed that: (1) The overall ESV in Qinghai Province showed a continuous increase during the study period, but the change of cultivated land led to different degrees of ESV loss. (2) The ESBL of both supply and demand in Qinghai Province were 6003.41 hundred million and 13132.46 hundred million, respectively. At present, the actual ESV of Qinghai Province is higher than the supply ecological security bottom line (SESBL) but far below the DESBL. (3) Under the four scenarios, the ESV under the DP scenario was closest to the DESBL and provided relatively more food. The DP scenario was most conducive to balancing ecological security and food security in Qinghai Province. This paper provides a new paradigm for measuring the ESBL and provides a scientific basis for optimizing ecological protection policies in the QTPEFA by comparing the results of multi-scenario simulation with the bottom line.

Multi-Scenario Simulation and Assessment of Ecosystem Service Value at the City Level from the Perspective of “Production–Living–Ecological” Spaces: A Case Study of Haikou, China

Structural changes in land use caused by urban development are one of the most important threats to ecosystem services. An in-depth study of the impacts that different land use patterns have on ecosystem service value (ESV) can provide guidance for sustainable urban planning and ecological conservation. In this research, we sought to explore the response mechanisms of ecosystem services under different urban development scenarios from the perspective of “production–living–ecological” space (PLES). This study combined the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model and ESV equivalent factor method to simulate the PLES and ESV of Haikou in 2035 under three scenarios of business as usual (BAU), ecological conservation (EC) and economic development (ED), and used the spatial superposition method, transfer matrix, and optimized cross-sensitivity analysis to explore the influence of the PLES on ecosystem services. The ESV of Haikou showed a declining trend from 2010 to 2020 under the influence of PLES changes and was at risk of further decline in the future. The reduction in the value of the water supply service constituted a major part of the loss of ESV. The simulation results demonstrated that the EC scenario had the most rational and ecologically efficient allocation of PLES, with the highest ESV and the lowest sensitivity to PLES changes. The results of this research can serve as an important reference for optimizing the urban land use structure and maintaining the stability of ecosystem services.

Increasing coastal reclamation by Invasive alien plants and coastal armoring threatens the ecological sustainability of coastal wetlands

Coastal reclamation is becoming a common land restoration trend all over the world as a result of the rising demand for land. Though restoring coastal wetlands has significant economic advantages, a slew of adverse ecological effects threatens the carbon functions of coastal wetlands. For the objective of making appropriate land use policymaking, the ecological-economic trade-offs of reclamation initiatives must be carefully considered. In this study, we utilized appropriate models to estimate the ecosystem service values and economic benefits of invasive alien plants and embankment seawall coastal reclamation in China. We centered on three main ecology-related ecosystem services: greenhouse gas regulation, storm-flood-erosion control, and waste treatment/habitat preservation. Coastal reclamation intensity index and financial analysis were utilized to assess the trade-offs between ecological degradation and economic benefit resulting from land reclamation. Findings reveal that a total of 26,322 ha and 10,731 km of coastal wetlands were reclaimed by Spartina alterniflora and seawalls respectively from 2000 to 2020 in China. S. alterniflora reclamation resulted in a significant decline of ESV loss of 5,702,454 Yuan ha−1, while seawalls reclamation yielded some Ecosystem service value (ESV) gain of 4,800, 111 Yuan km-1 from 2000-2020. The combined effects of coastal armoring and invasive S. alterniflora reclamation led to a loss of about 32.2 billion Yuan in ESV for the study duration. Economic gains failed to make up for the ecosystem service value ESV loss, since the cumulative ESV loss significantly exceeded the economic gains across the period studied. This correlation of trade-offs emerged from reclamation development that favored quick economic gains over long-lasting ecological value, posing a potential long-term threat to the ecological integrity and carbon sinks in coastal wetlands. To establish an equilibrium between seawall reclamation and Invasive alien plant species spread in coastal wetlands, stakeholders could use this scientific knowledge as leverage to avert future irreparable losses.

Potential Loss of Ecosystem Service Value Due to Vessel Activity Expansion in Indonesian Marine Protected Areas

Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) number 14 pertains to the preservation of sustainable marine ecosystems by establishing marine protected areas (MPAs). However, studies have reported massive damage to Indonesian marine ecosystems due to shipping pollution, anchors, and fishing nets. Thus, this study estimated the potential loss of ecosystem service value due to vessel activity expansion in the MPAs of Indonesia. This study was divided into three stages. The first stage is vessel activity expansion zone modeling based on kernel density. The second stage is marine ecosystem service value modeling through semantic harmonization, reclassification, and spatial harmonization. The last stage is the overlay of the vessel expansion zone model, marine ecosystem service value model, and the MPA of Indonesia. The results of this study indicate that the marine neritic zone of Indonesia has an ecosystem service value of USD 814.23 billion, of which USD 159.87 billion (19.63%) are in the MPA. However, the increase in vessel activity that occurred in 2013–2018 could potentially lead to the loss of the ecosystem service value of USD 27.63 billion in 14 protected areas. These results can assist policymakers in determining priority conservation areas based on the threat of vessel activity and value of ecosystem services.

Spatiotemporal Evolution and Influencing Mechanisms of Ecosystem Service Value in the Tarim River Basin, Northwest China

The Tarim River Basin (TRB) is situated in the hinterland of northwest China, which is an extremely arid and fragile ecological zone. In recent years, the region’s ecological civilization construction has been facing huge challenges that are exacerbated by climate change and human activities. In order to verify the current ecological status of TRB, this paper explores the spatial and temporal variation in ecosystem service value (ESV) and the impact mechanism based on LUCC data from 2000 to 2020, using the adjusted unit area value equivalent method, the elasticity index method and the geo-probe analysis method. The results show that: (1) the ESV of the TRB has fluctuated since 2000, increasing by CNY 14.02 billion, especially in the Hotan River region. Among the individual ecosystem services, the increase in regulatory services is the largest, rising to CNY 8.842 billion. The growth of ESV mostly occurred in the mountains and oases. (2) The rise in ESV is mainly due to the conversion of barren land to water and grassland; ESV loss is mainly affected by the conversion of water to cropland and barren land and grassland to cropland and barren land. (3) Human activity impact or intensity (HAI) is the key driving factor for the spatial stratified heterogeneity of ESV, followed by elevation (DEM). In the interaction analysis, HAI∩DEM interaction is the primary reason for ESV’s spatial differentiation. The study’s findings show that the combined effects of human activities, DEM, and hydrothermal conditions underlie the spatial stratified heterogeneity of ESV in the TRB. This conclusion provides a scientific basis for future ecological civilization construction planning.

Ecosystem Service Values as Related to Land Use and Land Cover Changes in Ethiopia: A Review

Humans worldwide depend on ecosystems and the services they provide. Land use and land cover change increasingly, influencing ecosystem values to the extent that the rate and direction of change occurred. The objective of this study was to review the link between changes in Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) and Ecosystem Service Value (ESV), with emphasis on mountainous landscapes in Ethiopia. The reviewers used the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) guideline in the reviewing process. Area-specific and country-level studies showed that the ESV changed as the result of the LULC changes in the country. The change in land use in Ethiopia resulted not only in the loss of ESVs but also in the gain of ESVs depending on the type of man’s activity. Negative change in LULC—especially the deterioration of land cover types such as forest land, shrub land and grass land—resulted in the loss of ESVs, whereas positive LULC change increased the value of ESVs. In Ethiopia, there is a loss of about USD 85 billion per year from the loss of ecosystem services. To save, improve and promote ESVs, land restoration and rehabilitation activities are important. The review provides insights into the need for and focus of future studies on LULC changes and the valuing of ESVs to understand the impact of changes in LULC on ESVs, considering existing and forecasted population increase in rapidly urbanizing areas.

Ecosystem services values at risk in the Atlantic coastal zone due to sea-level rise and socioeconomic development

Uncertainties about the future extent of sea-level rise (SLR) and socioeconomic development will determine the future of coastal ecosystem services and values. This study analyzes the joint impact of flooding and socioeconomic development on the future ecosystem services and values in the Atlantic coastal zone by 2100. To this end, flood probability maps (using the Uncertainty Bathtub Model; uBTM) and local ecosystem service value (ESV) estimates (using meta-analytic based global ecosystem service value functions for Provisioning, Regulating & maintenance, and Cultural ecosystem services across 12 biomes) are derived for a wide combination of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios to obtain future values of coastal ecosystem services (ES). Results show that the higher potential of ESV at risk is associated with RCP 8.5 and SSP5, i.e. the scenario associated with a narrative related to fossil-fueled development. For this scenario, by 2100, the coastal zone with the highest probable losses in Provisioning ESV is Europe (∼5.9 € billion/year), for Regulating & maintenance ESV this is North America (∼6.0 € billion/year) and for Cultural ESV this is South America (∼21.3 € billion/year). Countries facing highest relative risk of losing Provisioning ESV are the Netherlands (10.6 %), United States (7.4 %), and Mauritania (5.8 %). For Regulating & maintenance ESV, the top 3 countries impacted are Mauritania (17.6 %), the Netherlands (10.0 %) and Argentina (8.0 %). For Cultural ESV, the countries are Mexico (19.0 %), Denmark (18.1 %) and Sweden (15.6 %). Changes in ESV are exponentially related to flood risk and economic growth, such that small changes in flood or income lead to large changes in ESV. Unlike previous studies, the ESV functions used are dependent on time and local factors, such as population and income. Although population and income growth result in an increase in ESV, it also emphasizes the ecosystem service values at risk. Thus, sea-level rise and socioeconomic changes impact ecosystem services and values – directly affecting the well-being of the world population. The unequal distribution of coastal ecosystem service value losses across continents and countries highlighted in this work is important to identify what values are at risk and for whom. Adaptation measures and strategies can, in turn, be defined.

Evaluation of typhoon-induced inundation losses associated with LULC using multi-temporal SAR and optical images

We utilized a two-branch end-to-end network (MultiSenCNN) for land use and land cover (LULC) classification and flood event mapping using multispectral (MS), panchromatic (Pan) and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images, where flooding was induced by typhoon Lekima in August 2019. Flood damages were assessed by considering both the LULC and flood maps. We defined three strategies to compare the MS + SAR and MS + Pan images to demonstrate the ability of the MultiSenCNN algorithm for LULC classification. The three strategies yielded an average overall accuracy of ∼98% and an average Kappa of ∼0.98 for LULC classification. The overall accuracy of the fused MS + SAR images is slightly higher than the MS + Pan images when using the same model training samples. The flood mapping shows an overall accuracy of 97.22% and a Kappa of 0.94, with a flood inundation area of 101 km2 that mainly inundated cropland and urban areas. Compared to other LULC types, the flooded cropland has caused more loss of ecosystem service values during typhoon Lekima, accounting for 81.19% of the total. Using SAR mages can well monitor the start/end states of flood events and the inundated areas, providing the flood status information to rescuers and governments for making timely decisions.

Global occupation of wetland by artificial impervious surface area expansion and its impact on ecosystem service value for 2001–2018

Wetland is one of the most critical ecosystems with various functions, it produces the highest ecosystem services value (ESV) per unit area among all land types, thus, its decline has become a global concern in recent years. Since the 21st century, many developing countries have been continuously encroaching on wetlands due to rapid economic and population growth, resulting in the replacement of a large number of wetlands by cities, and how to reconcile urban expansion and wetland conservation has become a significant problem that needs to be considered. In this context, we mapped the spatial distribution of wetlands occupied by the expansion of global artificial impervious surface area (ISA) for 2001–2018 and discussed its temporal and spatial change characteristics at the global, continental, and national scales using the annual maps of global annual impervious area data set and global dynamic land cover data set based on Google Earth Engine platform, the loss of ESV due to wetland occupation was also measured at each spatial scale level. The results show that: (1) A total of 1301.24 km2 of wetlands were occupied by ISA expansion globally for 2001–2018, and their interannual variation showed an upward trend for 2001–2015, then began to decline rapidly since 2016. The occupation results in a global loss of US$3.46 billion in ecosystem service value; (2) Asia has the highest loss of ESV due to occupation of wetlands by ISA expansion, 624.18 km2 of occupation of wetlands resulted in a loss of US$1.66 billion in ESV, making it the continent with the largest area of occupied wetlands. Taking into account the different sizes of the continents, Oceania is the continent where ISA expansion occupies the wetlands most, while South America is the continent where it is relatively least severe; (3) China, the USA and Russia account for 50.9 % of global ESV loss due to wetland occupation by ISA expansion, a total of 663.95 km2 of wetlands were occupied. Although countries have made great efforts to protect wetland resources and deal with urban land expansion, our results show that the problem of wetlands occupied by global urban land expansion is still severe.