Longitudinal Transition Research Articles

Longitudinal transitions of cigarettes and electronic nicotine delivery systems among adolescents: Construction of a retrospective cohort using recall data from a cross-sectional sample.

INTRODUCTIONA major concern regarding non-cigarette tobacco or nicotine products (NCTNPs) is whether they facilitate or mitigate overall tobacco or nicotine use. We examined longitudinal transitions of cigarettes and electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) by constructing a retrospective cohort based on the recall data of a cross-sectional sample.METHODSUsing the Korea Youth Risk Behavior Survey, we constructed crosssectional data of 59576 adolescents into retrospective cohort data. Participants were categorized into 4 mutually exclusive tobacco or nicotine use states. We used a multistate Markov model to identify transitions between the states to calculate transition intensity ratios (TIRs), and examined the current use of tobacco or nicotine products to assess both gateway effects to cigarettes, and whether ENDS use helps adolescents quit cigarette smoking.RESULTSCompared with never use, use of ENDS was associated with an increased risk of initiation of cigarette use (TIR=6.8; 95% CI: 4.5–10.2). The risk of transitioning from cigarette ever use to ENDS, compared with never use to ENDS, was even more pronounced (TIR=44.1; 95% CI: 34.1–56.9). The prevalence of current cigarette smoking was higher among those who started ENDS then cigarettes, compared to those who began cigarette use without experimenting with ENDS (43.1% vs 35.8%). Moreover, 27.8% (95% CI: 23.6–32.0%) of adolescents who experimented first with cigarettes then moved to ENDS were current users of cigarettes, and 46.4% (95% CI: 42.1–51.1%) of these adolescents were current users of both cigarettes and ENDS.CONCLUSIONSBased on the recall data of a cross-sectional sample, we demonstrate that ENDS experimentation increases the likelihood of cigarette smoking initiation. A significant proportion of these adolescents continue to use cigarettes. Moreover, those who experimented with cigarettes then ENDS also continue smoking cigarettes or both cigarettes and ENDS. We suggest comprehensive tobacco control policies for all tobacco/nicotine products and monitoring the timing of NCTNP initiation in cross-sectional surveys.

Parents’ Postsecondary Education Expectations for Students with Autism, Intellectual Disability, and Multiple Disabilities: Findings From NLTS 2012

This study uses data from the National Longitudinal Transition Study 2012 to examine predictors at the individual, family, and school levels associated with parental expectations toward postsecondary education among students with significant support needs, including those with autism spectrum disorder, intellectual disability, and multiple disabilities. Consistent with previous studies, chi-square tests revealed a positive relation between socioeconomic status such as household income or parental education level and parental expectations. Logistic regression analyses showed that whether parents have a college degree and whether students have participated in college entrance or advanced placement tests are factors that are positively associated with parental expectations toward children’s future education.

General health status in young people with intellectual disabilities with and without Down syndrome in, and transitioning from, special education: findings from the National Longitudinal Transitions Study-2.

There has been little prior investigation of the general health of young people with intellectual disabilities across transition, nor separately for youth with intellectual disabilities with or without Down syndrome, despite general health being a strong predictor of subsequent health service use, hospital admissions and mortality in the general population. We aimed to investigate general health status in youth with intellectual disabilities with and without Down syndrome over the transitional period and quantify the extent to which personal characteristics, parental relationship and household income are associated with general health status. The National Longitudinal Transitions Study-2 includes a nationally representative sample of youth receiving special education services aged 13-17years at wave 1, followed up over 10years in five waves of data collection. Data on general health status of youth with intellectual disabilities with and without Down syndrome were obtained from parent reports. We summarised overall demographics and general health status and plotted general health status for those who had health data available for all five waves. We then used random-effects ordered logistic regression to investigate whether wave of data collection, age, sex, Down syndrome, ethnicity, parental relationship status and household income are associated with general health status. At wave 1, data on intellectual disabilities were available on 9008/9576 (94.1%) young people, and 871/9008 (9.7%) of them had intellectual disabilities, of whom 125/871 (14.4%) had Down syndrome. Youth with intellectual disabilities with or without Down syndrome had low rates of excellent or very good health. Across waves 1-5, there was a shallow gradient in the proportion of youth with intellectual disabilities reporting excellent/very good health, from 57.7% at 13-17years to 52.6% at 21-25years, being more marked for those without Down syndrome (57.8% at 13-17years to 51.8% at 21-25years). However, contrary to our expectations, an ordinal measure of general health status did not decline over this transitional period and did not differ between youth with and without Down syndrome. There was a gradient with higher income associated with better health, significantly so over $50001 (odds ratio=0.559, 95% confidence interval 0.366-0.854). Poorer health was experienced by youth with Hispanic, Latino or Spanish ethnicity (odds ratio=1.790, 95% confidence interval 1.051-3.048). Female sex and parental relationship status were not associated with health status. Young people with intellectual disabilities have bad health, and require support across all ages, including transition. Schools, teachers and staff in transitional services should consider health, and health care and support during transitional planning due to change in service provision and be aware of ethnicity and the stressful effects of low household income. This is important as interventions based on provision of greater support can prevent adverse consequences.

Exploring Correlates of Paid Early Work Experiences for Youth With Autism Using NLTS2012 Data

Prior research has demonstrated that paid work experience while in school is a predictor of postschool employment outcomes for youth with disabilities. For youth with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD), early paid work experience in high school can provide a place to learn occupational skills as well as develop communication, problem solving and interpersonal skills and behaviors that are essential for obtaining and maintaining employment. In the present study, we examined the extent to which youth with ASD have engaged in early paid work experiences while in school and factors associated with such experiences, using data from the National Longitudinal Transition Study 2012 . We found that approximately 24.4% of youth with ASD reported having been involved in a paid work experience during high school at some point within the past year. Further, age, social engagement, household income, and parent expectations were significant predictors of early paid work experience. Implications for practice and research are discussed.

Longitudinal Transitions in Intimate Partner Violence among Female Assigned at Birth Sexual and Gender Minority Youth.

Female-assigned at birth sexual and gender minorities (FAB SGM) are at elevated risk of experiencing intimate partner violence (IPV), yet little longitudinal research has been conducted with this population. In the current study, we attempted to understand how patterns of IPV victimization and perpetration, measured across a wide range of IPV behaviors (psychological, physical, sexual, cyber, and SGM-specific), changed over time for FAB SGM youth. Participants came from a longitudinal cohort study of FAB SGM late adolescents and young adults (FAB400; N = 488) and included anyone who reported a romantic partner at one of the first three waves (six months apart; N = 433). Latent class analysis (LCA) was run at each wave to determine the best-fitting class structure across IPV experiences. These were followed up with latent transition analyses (LTAs) to determine patterns of movement between classes over the course of the three waves. Lastly, we looked at the effects of staying with the same romantic partner on transitions. We found that the same three-class structure replicated across all three waves of the study. That class structure identified no/low, psychological, and high IPV classes at each wave. In the LTA, when transitions occurred for FAB SGM, they were much more likely to transition to a class defined by lower likelihoods of experiencing IPV (i.e., psychological to no/low) than they were to a class defined by higher likelihoods of IPV (i.e., psychological to high). However, we found that FAB SGM youth were less likely to transition to a less severe IPV class if they maintained the same serious romantic partner across waves. This finding, in particular, suggests that IPV is often relationship specific for FAB SGM and that efforts to reduce IPV in SGM communities must consider intervening at the relationship level to effect meaningful change.

IEP/Transition Planning Participation Among Students With the Most Significant Cognitive Disabilities: Findings From NLTS 2012

This study used data from the National Longitudinal Transition Study 2012 (NLTS 2012) to explore the individualized education program (IEP)/transition planning participation and role of students with the most significant cognitive disabilities, compared to students with other disabilities. We viewed students with the most significant cognitive disabilities as those included in three disability categories— autism, intellectual disability, and multiple disabilities—who took an alternate assessment. The study also included an analysis of student’s participation in relation to their functional, communication, and self-advocacy skills, and student–teacher relationships. Although students with the most significant cognitive disabilities experienced greater limitations overall, students with other disabilities were experiencing similar challenges. Implications for practice were discussed from the lens of student engagement, self-determination, and student’s leadership role.

Longitudinal epidemiology of human coronavirus OC43 in Yamagata, Japan, 2010–2017: Two groups based on spike gene appear one after another

Human coronavirus OC43 (HCoV-OC43) is divided into genotypes A to H based on genetic recombination including the spike (S) gene. To investigate the longitudinal transition of the phylogenetic feature of the HCoV-OC43 S gene in a community, phylogenetic analysis of the S1 region of theS gene was conducted using 208 strains detected in Yamagata during 2010 to 2017 with reference strains of the genotype. The S1 sequences were divisible into four groups: A to D. All Yamagata strains belonged to either group B or group D. In group B, 46 (90.2%) out of 51 Yamagata strains were clustered with those of genotype E reference strains (cluster E). In group D, 28 (17.8%) and 122 (77.7%) out of 157 Yamagata strains were clustered, respectively, with genotype F and genotype G reference strains. In cluster G, 28 strains formed a distinct cluster. Monthly distributions of HCoV-OC43 in Yamagata in 2010 to 2017 revealed that group B and group D appeared one after another. In group B, the cluster E strains were prevalent recurrently. In conclusion, epidemics of HCoV-OC43 in Yamagata, Japan might be attributable to two genetically different groups: group B showed a recurrent epidemic of strains belonging to a single phylogenetic cluster and group D showed epidemic strains belonging to multiple clusters.

Neurodevelopmental Traits and Longitudinal Transition Patterns in Internet Addiction: A 2-year Prospective Study.

Despite increasing attention to internet addiction (IA) in both clinical practice and research, our understanding of longitudinal changes of IA status is limited. In the present study, we employed latent transition analysis to investigate patterns of transitions and the stability of IA status among 5483 students (aged 9-12years) over the two-year study periods. Additionally, we examined whether neurodevelopmental traits predicted certain transition patterns. The stability rate of IA class membership and the conversion rate from non-IA to IA status across the 2years were 47% and 11%, respectively. The regression model revealed that autistic traits predicted the persisting IA pattern and that inattention traits predicted both the persisting and converting (from non-IA to IA status) patterns.

Longitudinal validity of PET-based staging of regional amyloid deposition.

Positron emission tomography (PET)‐based staging of regional amyloid deposition has recently emerged as a promising tool for sensitive detection and stratification of pathology progression in Alzheimer's Disease (AD). Here we present an updated methodological framework for PET‐based amyloid staging using region–specific amyloid‐positivity thresholds and assess its longitudinal validity using serial PET acquisitions. We defined region‐specific thresholds of amyloid‐positivity based on Florbetapir‐PET data of 13 young healthy individuals (age ≤ 45y), applied these thresholds to Florbetapir‐PET data of 179 cognitively normal older individuals to estimate a regional amyloid staging model, and tested this model in a larger sample of patients with mild cognitive impairment (N = 403) and AD dementia (N = 85). 2‐year follow‐up Florbetapir‐PET scans from a subset of this sample (N = 436) were used to assess the longitudinal validity of the cross‐sectional model based on individual stage transitions and data‐driven longitudinal trajectory modeling. Results show a remarkable congruence between cross‐sectionally estimated and longitudinally modeled trajectories of amyloid accumulation, beginning in anterior temporal areas, followed by frontal and medial parietal areas, the remaining associative neocortex, and finally primary sensory‐motor areas and subcortical regions. Over 98% of individual amyloid deposition profiles and longitudinal stage transitions adhered to this staging scheme of regional pathology progression, which was further supported by corresponding changes in cerebrospinal fluid biomarkers. In conclusion, we provide a methodological refinement and longitudinal validation of PET‐based staging of regional amyloid accumulation, which may help improving early detection and in‐vivo stratification of pathologic disease progression in AD.

초등학교에서 중학교 전환기 학생의 자기결정성동기 잠재전이분석 및 부모 변인 예측효과 검증

본 연구의 목적은 한국교육종단연구(KELS 2013) 자료를 활용하여 초등학교에서 중학교 전환기 학생의 자기결정 성동기의 종단적인 변화양상을 파악하고, 잠재프로파일의 전이과정을 분석하며, 부모 변인의 예측효과를 검증하는데 있다. 이를 위해 2015년 1차(초6)와 2016년 2차(중1) 설문에 모두 응답한 학생 중 총 5,924명의 자료를 대상으로 상관분석, 잠재프로파일분석, 잠재전이분석, 다중 로지스틱 회귀분석을 실시하였다. 연구결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 자기결정성동기 잠재프로파일 결과, 초등학교 6학년과 중학교 1학년의 잠재집단에서 무동기형, 타율동기형, 평균동기형, 자율동기형 각각 4개의 같은 집단유형으로 분류되었다. 둘째, 초등학교 6학년의 자기결정성동기는 중학교 1학년에서 잠재집단이 그대로 유지 되거나 한 수준 높은 단계로 전이되고 있는 것으로 나타났다. 특히, 가장 많이 나타나는 전이 패턴은 타율동기형에서 평균동기형으로 전이되는 패턴(35.1%)이며, 다음으로 평균동기형에서 자율동기형으로 전이되었다. 셋째, 부모의 학업적 지원, 부모의 자율성지지는 자율동기형으로 전이할 확률을 증가시키는 예측요인이었다. 부모통제 요인은 무동기형과 타율동기형으로 전이할 확률을 증가시켰으며, 부모와의 상호작용은 이를 낮추어 주는 예측요인이었다. 본 연구의 결과는 초등학교에서 중학교로 전환하는 학생의 자기결정성을 높이기 위한 잠재집단에 따른 차별적 부모의 양육방법, 학업적 지원, 상호작용 방향에 대한 시사점을 제공한다.

The impact of cigarette and e-cigarette use history on transition patterns: a longitudinal analysis of the population assessment of tobacco and health (PATH) study, 2013\u20132015

BackgroundPopulation models have been developed to evaluate the impact of new tobacco products on the overall population. Reliable input parameters such as longitudinal tobacco use transitions are needed to quantify the net population health impact including the number of premature deaths prevented, additional life years, and changes in cigarette smoking prevalence.MethodsThis secondary analysis assessed transition patterns from PATH wave 1 (2013–14) to wave 2 (2014–15) among adult exclusive cigarette smokers, exclusive e-cigarette users, and dual users. Transition probabilities were calculated by taking into account factors including cigarette smoking and e-cigarette use histories and experimental or established use behaviors. Multinomial logistic regression models were constructed to further evaluate factors associated with transition patterns.ResultsDifferential transition probabilities emerged among study subgroups when taking into account cigarette smoking and e-cigarette use histories and experimental or established use behaviors. For example, overall 45% of exclusive e-cigarette users in wave 1 continued using e-cigarettes exclusively in wave 2. However, we observed approximately 11 to 14% of wave 1 exclusive experimental e-cigarette users continued to use e-cigarette exclusively in wave 2, compared to about 62% of exclusive established e-cigarette users. The history of cigarette smoking and e-cigarette use is another important factor associated with transition patterns. Among experimental e-cigarette users, 7.5% of individuals without a history of cigarette smoking transitioned to exclusive cigarette smoking, compared to 30% of individuals with a history of cigarette smoking. Additionally, 1.3% of exclusive cigarette smokers in wave 1 transitioned to exclusive e-cigarette use, with the highest transition probability (3.7%) observed in the established cigarette smoker with a history of e-cigarette use subgroup.ConclusionsProduct use histories and current use behaviors are important factors influencing transitions between product use states. Given that experimental users’ transition behaviors may be more variable and more influenced by tobacco use history, long-term predictions made by population models could be improved by the use of transition probabilities from established users. As transition patterns might be changing over time, long-term transition patterns can be examined through analysis of future waves of PATH data.

Syndemic latent transition analysis in the HPTN 061 cohort: Prospective interactions between trauma, mental health, social support, and substance use

BackgroundSubstance use among Black sexual minority men (BSMM) is a significant public health focus of prevention interventions due to its association with sexual risk behaviors and transmission of HIV. Traumatic experiences and mental health challenges may interact to create a syndemic associated with substance use in this population; this may be moderated by social support however. MethodsUsing a multicenter prospective cohort of 1068 BSMM, we conducted a longitudinal syndemic latent transition analysis testing whether baseline and 6-month race and sexuality-targeted violence, intimate partner violence, other traumatic experiences, depression, and internalized homophobia was associated with 12-month substance use. We also tested if social support modified this and was associated with transitions between statuses. ResultsOur analysis identified four statuses: A “low-risk” status characterized by the lowest proportions of syndemic factors, and 3 “high-risk” statuses, characterized by higher proportions of syndemic factors. All three high-risk statuses were associated with higher substance use than the low-risk status, with the greatest association observed with “high-risk status C” (aRR = 4.54, 95 % CI 1.98, 10.40). Social support attenuated this association (Interaction aRR = 0.21, 95 % CI 0.05, 0.85) and was associated with lower transition rates from low to high-risk status 6 months later (Transition ratio = 0.45, 95 % CI 0.29, 0.69). ConclusionsOur findings identified a syndemic of trauma, depression, and homophobia among BSMM associated with substance use, but attenuated by social support. Future research into the role of social support and resiliency in substance use prevention and recovery is recommended.

A longitudinal analysis of nondaily smokers: the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos (HCHS/SOL)

PurposeNondaily smoking is increasing in the United States and common among Hispanic/Latino smokers. We characterized factors related to longitudinal smoking transitions in Hispanic/Latino nondaily smokers. MethodsThe Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos is a population-based cohort study of Hispanics/Latinos aged 18–74 years. Multinomial logistic regression assessed the baseline factors (2008–2011) associated with follow-up smoking status (2014–2017) in nondaily smokers (n = 573), accounting for complex survey design. ResultsAfter ∼6 years, 41% of nondaily smokers became former smokers, 22% became daily smokers, and 37% remained nondaily smokers. Factors related to follow-up smoking status were number of days smoked in the previous month, household smokers, education, income, and insurance. Those smoking 16 or more of the last 30 days had increased risk of becoming a daily smoker [vs. < 4 days; relative risk ratio (RRR) = 5.65, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) = 1.96–16.33]. Greater education was inversely associated with transitioning to daily smoking [>high school vs. <ninth grade: RRR (95% CI) = 0.30 (0.09–0.95)]. Living with smokers was associated with decreased likelihood of quitting [RRR (95% CI) = 0.45 (0.24–0.86)]. Having insurance was associated with quitting [RRR (95% CI) = 2.11 (1.18–3.76)] and becoming a daily smoker [RRR (95% CI) = 3.00 (1.39–6.48)]. ConclusionsMany Hispanic/Latino nondaily smokers became daily smokers, which may increase their risk of adverse health outcomes. Addressing different smoking patterns in primary care may be useful to prevent smoking-related diseases.

Stability-Based Transition Model Using Transport Equations

A laminar–turbulent transition model is presented. The model accounts for longitudinal transition mechanisms (i.e., Tollmien–Schlichting-induced transition) and was calibrated using stability computations on similar boundary-layer profiles at Mach number ranging from zero to four on both adiabatic and isothermal walls. The model embeds the so-called C1 criterion for transverse transition mechanisms (i.e., crossflow-wave-induced transition). Finally, the model accounts for separation-induced transition by means of the Gleyzes criterion. The transition model is written under a transport equation formalism. Validations are performed on three-dimensional configurations, and comparisons against results from a transition database method for natural transition, exact linear stability computations, and experimental data are shown.

Transitions in smoking and nicotine use from 2016 to 2017 among a UK cohort of adult smokers and ex-smokers.

Smokers differ in how they smoke and how they stop smoking. Use of nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) and e-cigarettes further diversifies smokers. We aimed to identify and compare latent groups of past-year smokers and to describe longitudinal transitions between the identified groups. Latent transition analysis of online UK past-year smokers' data (n = 2857) collected in June 2016 and followed-up in October 2017. Latent groups were identified based on participants' smoking, e-cigarette use, NRT use, urges to smoke and last quit attempt. Sociodemographic and smoking characteristics between the groups were compared using Pearson's χ2 test and Cramer's V. Four latent groups of smokers (heavy smokers, light smokers, smokers using NRT, smokers using e-cigarettes) and two recently quit smokers (abstinent ex-smokers, ex-smokers using e-cigarettes) were identified. Nearly half the participants (48.9%) were heavy or light smokers who did not use alternative nicotine products and largely had not tried quitting smoking. Latent groups were relatively stable and transitions to quitting smoking were more probable in groups of smokers using alternative nicotine products. Smokers using NRT transitioned mostly to abstinent ex-smokers, and smokers using e-cigarettes to ex-smokers using e-cigarettes' groups (11.2% and 11.4%, respectively). The abstinent ex-smokers group grew the most at follow-up (+6.3%). Nearly half of the participants continued smoking without having tried to reduce harm or quit. Of smokers who transitioned, the majority quit smoking and abstained from nicotine altogether. Use of alternative nicotine products alongside smoking was associated with higher probabilities of becoming an ex-smoker.

Longitudinal Transition of Adolescents’ Psychological Character Profiles and its Predictors in Multicultural Families

Longitudinal Transition of Adolescents’ Psychological Character Profiles and its Predictors in Multicultural Families

Longitudinal transitions of exclusive and polytobacco electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) use among youth, young adults and adults in the USA: findings from the PATH Study Waves 1–3 (2013–2016)

ObjectiveElectronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS; including e-cigarettes) are rapidly evolving in the US marketplace. This study reports cross-sectional prevalence and longitudinal pathways of ENDS use across 3 years, among US...

Longitudinal pathways of exclusive and polytobacco hookah use among youth, young adults and adults in the USA: findings from the PATH Study Waves 1–3 (2013–2016)

ObjectiveThe goal of this study is to examine cross-sectional rates of use and longitudinal pathways of hookah use among US youth (ages 12-17), young adults (ages 18-24), and adults 25+...

Longitudinal pathways of exclusive and polytobacco smokeless use among youth, young adults and adults in the USA: findings from the PATH Study Waves 1–3 (2013–2016)

ObjectiveUse of smokeless tobacco (SLT) with other tobacco products is growing, yet gaps in understanding transitions among SLT and other product use remain. The aim of this study is to...

Assistive Technology for Students With Disabilities: An Updated Snapshot

Assistive technology can benefit students with disabilities in terms of independence and performance. Yet more research is needed regarding usage of assistive technology. Using the National Longitudinal Transition Study 2012 database, the authors explored reported use regarding assistive technology by secondary students with disabilities. Overall, the authors found low rates of assistive technology reported use among students with disabilities aggregated, although there were large ranges across disability categories (e.g., 14.5%–74.0% for use of assistive technology). Disability category had a statistically significant relationship with reported assistive technology use for secondary students.