Longitudinal Population Study Research Articles

Recurrent involvement with the Quebec child protection system for reasons of neglect: A longitudinal clinical population study

Studies in several jurisdictions have found that families become recurrently involved with child protection systems most frequently for reasons of neglect. Child protection involvement for reasons of neglect is shown to correlate with various socioeconomic vulnerabilities. ObjectiveThis study, the largest of its kind in Canada, examines when and for whom recurring conditions of neglect were most likely to occur for all children involved with child protection in the province of Quebec over a span of fifteen years. Participants and settingSpecifically, the study population includes all children whose ongoing child protection intervention in Quebec closed between 2002 and 2017 (N = 76,176). MethodsThis clinical population study uses a longitudinal research design drawing anonymized clinical administrative data from all of Quebec’s child protection jurisdictions spanning 15 years, and Quebec data extracted from the 2011 Canadian National Household Survey to estimate socioeconomic vulnerability. ResultsOf the total population studied, 32.5 % (N = 24,816) experienced a recurrence of maltreatment during the study period, of which more than one third (N = 8707) experienced a recurrence for reasons of neglect. ConclusionsBecause the association between socioeconomic vulnerability and recurrence of neglect indicates a gap in material and social supports—which child protection systems have neither the mandate nor the resources to fill—we propose additional avenues that we urge policymakers and practitioners to consider in supporting the demonstrated needs of these families.

The Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children - A resource for COVID-19 research: Questionnaire data capture April-May 2020.

The Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) is a prospective population-based cohort study which recruited pregnant women in 1990-1992. The resource provides an informative and efficient setting for collecting data on the current coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. In early March 2020, a questionnaire was developed in collaboration with other longitudinal population studies to ensure cross-cohort comparability. It targeted retrospective and current COVID-19 infection information (exposure assessment, symptom tracking and reported clinical outcomes) and the impact of both disease and mitigating measures implemented to manage the COVID-19 crisis more broadly. Data were collected on symptoms of COVID-19 and seasonal flu, travel prior to the pandemic, mental health and social, behavioural and lifestyle factors. The online questionnaire was deployed across parent (G0) and offspring (G1) generations between 9 th April and 15 th May 2020. 6807 participants completed the questionnaire (2706 original mothers, 1014 original fathers/partners, 2973 offspring (mean age ~28 years) and 114 offspring partners). Eight (0.01%) participants (4 G0 and 4 G1) reported a positive test for COVID-19, 77 (1.13%; 28 G0 and 49 G1) reported that they had been told by a doctor they likely had COVID-19 and 865 (12.7%; 426 G0 and 439 G1) suspected that they have had COVID-19. Using algorithmically defined cases, we estimate that the predicted proportion of COVID-19 cases ranged from 1.03% - 4.19% depending on timing during the period of reporting (October 2019-March 2020). Data from this first questionnaire will be complemented with at least two more follow-up questionnaires, linkage to health records and results of biological testing as they become available. Data has been released as: 1) a standard dataset containing all participant responses with key sociodemographic factors and 2) as a composite release coordinating data from the existing resource, thus enabling bespoke research across all areas supported by the study.

Attitudes towards transactional data donation and linkage in a longitudinal population study: evidence from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children

Background: Commercial transaction records, such as data collected through banking and retail loyalty cards, present a novel opportunity for longitudinal population studies to capture data on participants’ real-world behaviours and interactions. However, little is known about participant attitudes towards donating transactional records for this purpose. This study aimed to: (i) explore the attitudes of longitudinal population study participants towards sharing their transactional records for health research and data linkage; and (ii) explore the safeguards that researchers should consider implementing when looking to request transactional data from participants for data linkage studies. Methods: Participants in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children were invited to a series of three focus groups with semi-structured discussions designed to elicit opinions. Through asking participants to attend three focus groups we aimed to facilitate more in-depth discussions around the potentially complex topic of data donation and linkage. Thematic analysis was used to sort data into overarching themes addressing the research questions. Results: Participants (n= 20) expressed a variety of attitudes towards data linkage, which were associated with safeguards to address concerns. This data was sorted into three themes: understanding, trust, and control. We discuss the importance of explaining the purpose of data linkage, consent options, who the data is linked with and sensitivities associated with different parts of transactional data. We describe options for providing further information and controls that participants consider should be available when studies request access to transactional records. Conclusions: This study provides initial evidence on the attitudes and concerns of participants of a longitudinal cohort study towards transactional record linkage. The findings suggest a number of safeguards which researchers should consider when looking to recruit participants for similar studies, such as the importance of ensuring participants have access to appropriate information, control over their data, and trust in the organisation.

Mania symptoms in a Swedish longitudinal population study: The roles of childhood trauma and neurodevelopmental disorders

BackgroundAdult psychiatric disorders are associated with both childhood traumatic experiences (CTEs) and neurodevelopmental disorders (NDDs). CTEs and NDDs frequently co-occur in childhood, but their combined risk effect on the emergence of juvenile mania symptoms has not yet been examined. MethodsIn a population-representative Swedish twin study, CTEs and NDDs were assessed in 3,348 nine-year old twins born between 1998 and 2001, and treated as dichotomous predictors (any CTEs, any NDDs). Follow-up data were gathered at age 15 through parental reports of mania symptoms, yielding a symptom count score. ResultsBoth CTEs and NDDs at age 9 contributed uniquely to an increase in mania symptoms at age 15. Children with both risk factors had 1.6 times the rate of mania symptoms as children with CTEs-only (Incidence rate ratio [IRR] 1.63, 95% CI 1.37-1.93), and 1.3 times the rate of mania symptoms as children with NDDs-only (IRR 1.26, 95% CI 1.06-1.50). There was no evidence for an interactive effect of CTEs and NDDs. NDDs showed a trend towards having a larger effect on mania symptoms than CTEs (NDDs-only vs. CTEs-only: IRR 1.29, 95% CI 0.99-1.68). LimitationsAlthough it is a strength of the study that the data on exposures and outcome were collected prospectively, parental recall of CTEs was required and CTEs may be under-reported. ConclusionsNDDs are at least as important as CTEs in the development of mania symptoms, and their risk is additive. Those with a history of both CTEs and NDDs should be monitored closely for the development of more severe psychiatric presentations.

Sex-specific temporal trends in the incidence of atrial fibrillation in a large Norwegian population-based study 1986–2014

Abstract Background Due to population aging, increasing prevalence of obesity and enhanced detection, the prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF) worldwide is increasing steadily. Considerable sex differences in the epidemiology of AF such as lower prevalence and later onset in women compared to men have been reported. However, little is known about sex-specific temporal trends in AF incidence within the general population. Purpose To explore sex-specific age-adjusted secular trends in the incidence of AF in a general population from Norway between 1986 and 2014. Methods A total of 16,865 men and 15,413 women aged 20 years or older and without AF were enrolled in a longitudinal population study between 1986 and 2008 and followed up for incident AF to the end of 2014. Follow-up was from the date of attendance to the date of AF, emigration or death, whichever came first. All AF cases were validated by an independent endpoint committee using hospital and death records. AF incidence rates were calculated for each calendar year by dividing the number of AF cases per year by the corresponding person-time at risk. To allow for non-linear time trends, calendar year was fitted using fractional polynomials. Poisson regression was used to estimate calendar year-specific AF incidence rates adjusted for age. All analyses were stratified by sex. Results A total of 911 AF events in women and 1,139 AF events in men occurred over 324,090 person-years and 294,531 person-years of follow-up, respectively. During the study period AF incidence rates in men were at least double that in women (Figure). Age-adjusted AF incidence rates in women increased from 1986, peaked at 0.87 per 1000 person-years in 1998 and then decreased slightly towards 2014. In men AF incidence rates increased up to 2.18 per 1000 person-years in 2005 and then steeply decreased. Conclusion(s) AF incidence rates decreased in both women and men towards the end of the study period. The decrease was more profound in men compared to that in women. One possible explanation is more pronounced reduction in incidence and better treatment of myocardial infarction in men compared to women given that the aetiology of AF in men is mainly ischemic heart disease-related. However, further epidemiological analyses should be undertaken to identify explanatory factors. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: Public hospital(s). Main funding source(s): University Hospital of North Norway, Northern Norway Regional Health Authority

Prenatal and early childhood exposure to tetrachloroethylene (PCE) and non-medical use of prescription drugs: A retrospective cohort study in Cape Cod, MA

BackgroundBetween 1968 and 1983, public drinking water supplies of Cape Cod, Massachusetts were contaminated with the chlorinated solvent tetrachloroethylene (PCE). We previously found an affinity for risk-taking behaviors, including the use of illicit drugs, following prenatal and early childhood exposure to PCE. Using newly collected data, we investigated the risk of non-medical use of prescription drugs (NMUPD) following prenatal and early childhood PCE exposure. MethodsParticipants were identified from a retrospective cohort study ("Cape Cod Health Study”) via cross-matching birth certificates and water system data. The original self-administered questionnaire gathered data on demographics, work and medical history, and alcohol and illicit drug use from 618 individuals (363 exposed and 255 unexposed). The follow-up survey added questions on non-medical use of prescription pain relievers, tranquilizers, stimulants and sedatives. A validated leaching and transport model was used to estimate exposure to PCE exposure in drinking water. ResultsThere was a wide distribution of cumulative prenatal and early childhood PCE exposure levels (range: 0.04 g–3722.2 g). PCE exposed subjects had a 1.92-fold increase in risk of any non-medical use of prescription drugs [Adjusted RR: 1.92, (95% CI: 1.31, 2.83)]. Furthermore, the association followed a dose-response relationship where the risk of NMUPD was higher for those exposed to PCE levels greater than or equal the median level versus those exposed to levels less than the median [Adjusted RR: 2.05 (95% CI: 1.34, 3.15) vs. 1.83 (95% CI: 1.20, 2.79) (p-value for trend < 0.01)]. Additionally, we found moderate increases in risk by level of non-medical use (any non-medical use, non-medical use of 1 or more categories of prescription drugs, or 2+ categories) as well as by category of drug for pain relivers, stimulants and tranquilizers. ConclusionWe found that prenatal and early childhood exposure to PCE was associated with a moderate increase in the risk of NMUPD. Exposed subjects had dose-related increased risks of NMUPD of pain relievers, tranquilizers, and stimulants. This study has a number of limitations and is the first to report this association. Additional longitudinal studies of populations exposed to PCE during early life should be conducted to examine its long-term neurotoxic effects.

Loneliness and type 2 diabetes incidence: findings from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing

Aims/hypothesisLoneliness is associated with all-cause mortality and coronary heart disease. However, the prospective relationship between loneliness and type 2 diabetes onset is unclear.MethodsWe conducted a longitudinal observational population study with data on 4112 diabetes-free participants (mean age 65.02 ± 9.05) from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing. Loneliness was assessed in 2004–2005 using the revised University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) Loneliness Scale. Incident type 2 diabetes cases were assessed from 2006 to 2017. Associations were modelled using Cox proportional hazards regression, adjusting for potential confounders, which included cardiometabolic comorbidities.ResultsA total of 264 (6.42%) participants developed type 2 diabetes over the follow-up period. Loneliness was a significant predictor of incident type 2 diabetes (HR 1.46; 95% CI 1.15, 1.84; p = 0.002) independent of age, sex, ethnicity, wealth, smoking status, physical activity, alcohol consumption, BMI, HbA1c, hypertension and cardiovascular disease. Further analyses detected an association between loneliness and type 2 diabetes onset (HR 1.41; 95% CI 1.04, 1.90; p = 0.027), independent of depressive symptoms, living alone and social isolation. Living alone and social isolation were not significantly associated with type 2 diabetes onset.Conclusions/interpretationLoneliness is a risk factor for type 2 diabetes. The mechanisms underlying this relationship remain to be elucidated.Graphical abstract

Secular trends in disease modifying treatment and expenditure in multiple sclerosis: A longitudinal population study in the north of Ireland

BackgroundThe epidemiology of multiple sclerosis (MS) is important for planning disease modifying therapy (DMT). Secular changes in the use of DMT in MS can guide future service development. MethodsA population study of the prevalence of multiple sclerosis was completed in the west of Northern Ireland – a defined geographic area making up the Western Health and Social Care Trust (WHSCT). The use, category and cost of DMT for the MS population in the WHSCT were measured over 11 years. ResultsThe WHSCT had a recorded prevalence of MS of 238.4/100,000 (95%CI 221.5–256.5) in 2018. DMT use increased over threefold in 11 years. Four hundred and nine (57%) of 720 MS patients were taking a DMT by 2018. The annual expenditure of DMT drugs had increased sixfold over ten years to £5,301,198 in 2018 (using 2018 prices), reflecting both an increase in DMT use and a switch to more intensive DMTs. Younger MS patients were more likely to be taking a DMT (P<0.001). ConclusionDMT use and cost have been increasing among the MS population in the Northern Ireland. There has been a temporal switch to more efficacious DMTs. Future research should monitor the cost-effectiveness and equity of treatment of MS patients.

Reproductive period and dementia: A 44-year longitudinal population study of Swedish women.

Longitudinal studies examining the effect of endogenous estrogens on dementia risk are needed to understand why women have higher dementia incidence than men after age 85. A population-based sample of women with natural menopause (N=1364) from Gothenburg, Sweden, was followed from 1968-2012. Information on endogenous estrogens (age at menarche and menopause, number of pregnancies, and months of breastfeeding) was obtained from interviews in 1968-1992. Dementia was diagnosed according to established criteria based on information from neuropsychiatric examinations and close informant interviews. We found that longer reproductive period was associated with increased risk of dementia (hazard ratio [HR] per year 1.06, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.03-1.20) and Alzheimer's disease (AD) (1.06, 1.02-1.11), particularly for those with dementia (1.10, 1.04-1.17) and AD (1.15, 1.06-1.26) onset after age 85. These results may explain why women have higher dementia incidence compared to men after age 85, the age with the highest number of dementia cases.

Insomnia is a risk factor for spreading of chronic pain: A Swedish longitudinal population study (SwePain).

Recent evidence suggests that insomnia negatively influences the occurrence of generalized pain. This study examined whether insomnia is a risk factor for the transition from local pain (LP) to generalized pain (i.e. spreading of pain). This longitudinal study, with a follow-up of 24months, included 959 participants (mean age: 55.8years; SD: 13.9) with local or regional pain at baseline. Participants were grouped by insomnia symptoms as measured by the Insomnia Severity Index. Spreading of pain was measured by body manikins based on the spatial distribution of pain on the body. We defined two outcome categories; one with relatively localized pain (i.e. LP and moderate regional pain [MRP]), and one with relatively generalized pain (i.e. substantial regional pain and widespread pain [WSP]). Baseline age, sex, education, depressive symptoms, anxiety symptoms, catastrophizing, pain intensity and spread of pain were also included in the Generalized Linear Model analysis. The unadjusted model showed that the risk of spreading of pain increased with an increase in insomnia symptoms (no insomnia: 55.4%; subthreshold insomnia: 25.4% moderate insomnia: 16.5% and severe insomnia: 2.7%). The risk increased in a dose-dependent manner; moderate insomnia risk ratio (RR) 2.34 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.34-4.09) and severe insomnia RR 4.13 (95% CI: 1.56-10.92). The results were maintained in the fully adjusted model although MRP was the strongest predictor RR 6.95 (95% CI: 3.11-15.54). Our findings show a strong prospective relationship between insomnia symptoms and the transition from relatively localized to generalized pain. This study shows that people with LP conditions are at much higher risk of developing WSP if they also have significant insomnia symptoms. The elevated risk is evident after 24months and increases in a dose-dependent manner regarding the degree of exposure to insomnia symptoms. Local pain conditions are quite common in primary care, and an evaluation of the insomnia symptoms is highly recommended since the most common sleep problems can be treated effectively if detected.

The Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children - A resource for COVID-19 research: Questionnaire data capture April-May 2020

The Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) is a prospective population-based cohort study which recruited pregnant women in 1990-1992. The resource provides an informative and efficient setting for collecting data on the current coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. In early March 2020, a questionnaire was developed in collaboration with other longitudinal population studies to ensure cross-cohort comparability. It targeted retrospective and current COVID-19 infection information (exposure assessment, symptom tracking and reported clinical outcomes) and the impact of both disease and mitigating measures implemented to manage the COVID-19 crisis more broadly. Data were collected on symptoms of COVID-19 and seasonal flu, travel prior to the pandemic, mental health and social, behavioural and lifestyle factors. The online questionnaire was deployed across the parent and offspring generations between the 9th April and 15th May 2020. 6807 participants completed the questionnaire (2706 original mothers, 1014 original fathers/partners, 2973 offspring (mean age ~28 years) and 114 partners of offspring). Eight (0.01%) participants (4 G0 and 4 G1) reported a positive test for COVID-19, 77 (1.13%; 28 G0 and 49 G1) reported that they had been told by a doctor they likely had COVID-19 and 865 (12.7%; 426 G0 and 439 G1) suspected that they have had COVID-19. Using algorithmically defined cases, we estimate that the predicted proportion of COVID-19 cases fell between 1.03% - 4.19% depending on timing of measurement during the period of reporting. Data from this first questionnaire will be complemented with at least two more follow-up questionnaires, linkage to health records and results of biological testing as they become available. Data has been released as: 1) a standard dataset containing all participant responses with key sociodemographic factors and 2) as a composite release coordinating data from the existing resource, thus enabling bespoke research across all areas supported by the study.

Behavioural variation and learning across the lifespan in wild white-faced capuchin monkeys

Natural selection has evidently mediated many species characteristics relevant to the evolution of learning, including longevity, length of the juvenile period, social organization, timing of cognitive and motor development, and age-related shifts in behavioural propensities such as activity level, flexibility in problem-solving and motivation to seek new information. Longitudinal studies of wild populations can document such changes in behavioural propensities, providing critical information about the contexts in which learning strategies develop, in environments similar to those in which learning strategies evolved. The Lomas Barbudal Monkey Project provides developmental data for the white-faced capuchin, Cebus capucinus, a species that has converged with humans regarding many life-history and behavioural characteristics. In this dataset, focused primarily on learned aspects of foraging behaviour, younger capuchins are more active overall, more curious and opportunistic, and more prone to inventing new investigative and foraging-related behaviours. Younger individuals more often seek social information by watching other foragers (especially older foragers). Younger individuals are more creative, playful and inventive, and less neophobic, exhibiting a wider range of behaviours when engaged in extractive foraging. Whereas adults more often stick with old solutions, younger individuals often incorporate recently acquired experience (both social and asocial) when foraging. This article is part of the theme issue 'Life history and learning: how childhood, caregiving and old age shape cognition and culture in humans and other animals'.

The impact of armed conflict on cancer among civilian populations in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review.

BackgroundArmed conflicts are increasingly impacting countries with a high burden of cancer. The aim of this study is to systematically review the literature on the impact of armed conflict on cancer in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).MethodsIn November 2019, we searched five medical databases (Embase, Medline, Global Health, PsychINFO and the Web of Science) without date, language or study design restrictions. We included studies assessing the association between armed conflict and any cancer among civilian populations in LMICs. We systematically re-analysed the data from original studies and assessed quality using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. Data were analysed descriptively by cancer site.ResultsOf 1,543 citations screened, we included 20 studies assessing 8 armed conflicts and 13 site-specific cancers (total study population: 70,172). Two-thirds of the studies were of low methodological quality (score <5) and their findings were often conflicting. However, among outcomes assessed by three or more studies, we found some evidence that armed conflict was associated with increases in the incidence and mortality of non-specific cancers, breast cancer and cervical cancer. Single studies reported a positive association between armed conflict and the incidence of stomach and testicular cancers, some as early as 3 years after the onset of conflict. Some studies reported a post-conflict impact on time to diagnosis.ConclusionOur findings support the need for more rigorous longitudinal and cohort studies of populations in and immediately post-conflict to inform the development of basic packages of cancer services, and post-conflict cancer control planning and development.

The emergence of social gaps in mental health: A longitudinal population study in Sweden, 1900-1959.

During the recent decades, social inequalities in mental health have increased and are now one of the most persistent features of contemporary society. There is limited knowledge about when this pattern emerged or whether it has been a historically fixed feature. The objective of this study was to assess whether socioeconomic and gender gaps in mental health changed during the period 1900–1959 in Sweden. We used historical micro data which report all necessary information on individuals' demographic characteristics, occupational attainment and mental disorders (N = 2,450) in a Swedish population of 193,893. Changes over time was tested using multilevel Cox proportional hazard models. We tested how gender-specific risks of mental disorder changed and how gender-specific socioeconomic status was related to risks of mental disorder later in life. We found a reversal in gender gaps in mental health during the study period. Women had a lower risk than men in 1900 and higher risks in 1959. For men, we found a negative gradient in SES risks in 1900 and a positive gradient in 1959. For women, we found no clear SES gradient in the risk of mental disorder. These findings suggest that the contemporary patterns in socioeconomic and gender gaps in mental disorder emerged during the 1940s and 1950s and have since then persisted.

Predictors of attrition in a longitudinal population-based study of aging.

Longitudinal studies predictably experience non-random attrition over time. Among older adults, risk factors for attrition may be similar to risk factors for outcomes such as cognitive decline and dementia, potentially biasing study results. To characterize participants lost to follow-up which can be useful in the study design and interpretation of results. In a longitudinal aging population study with 10 years of annual follow-up, we characterized the attrited participants (77%) compared to those who remained in the study. We used multivariable logistic regression models to identify attrition predictors. We then implemented four machine learning approaches to predict attrition status from one wave to the next and compared the results of all five approaches. Multivariable logistic regression identified those more likely to drop out as older, male, not living with another study participant, having lower cognitive test scores and higher clinical dementia ratings, lower functional ability, fewer subjective memory complaints, no physical activity, reported hobbies, or engagement in social activities, worse self-rated health, and leaving the house less often. The four machine learning approaches using areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves produced similar discrimination results to the multivariable logistic regression model. Attrition was most likely to occur in participants who were older, male, inactive, socially isolated, and cognitively impaired. Ignoring attrition would bias study results especially when the missing data might be related to the outcome (e.g. cognitive impairment or dementia). We discuss possible solutions including oversampling and other statistical modeling approaches.

Exposure to common infections and risk of suicide and self-harm: a longitudinal general population study

Common infectious agents, such as Toxoplasma gondii (T. gondii) and several human herpes viruses, have been linked to increased risk of self-harm. The aim of this study was to investigate the associations between self-harm and seropositivity to T. gondii, Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), Herpes Simplex virus Type 1 (HSV-1), and Cytomegalovirus (CMV). IgM and IgG antibodies to these infections were measured in the Health 2000 project nationally representative of the whole Finnish adult population, and 6250 participants, age 30 and over, were followed for 15 years via registers. In addition, lifetime suicidal ideation and suicide attempts based on medical records and interview were assessed within a subsample of 694 participants screened to a substudy for possible psychotic symptoms or as controls. Among the 6250 participants, 14 individuals died of suicide and an additional 4 individuals had a diagnosis of intentional self-harm during follow-up. Serological evidence of lifetime or acute infections was not found to be associated with these suicidal outcomes. However, in the subsample, those seropositive for CMV had fewer suicide attempts compared to those seronegative, adjusting for gender, age, educational level, childhood family size, regional residence, CRP, and screen status (OR for multiple attempts = 0.40, 95% confidence interval 0.20‒0.83, p = 0.014). To conclude, common infections were not associated with risk of death by suicide or with self-harm diagnoses at a 15-year follow-up in the general population sample. Our finding of an increased number of suicide attempts among persons seronegative for CMV calls for further research.

Evolutionary life history theory as an organising framework for cohort studies: insights from the Cebu Longitudinal Health and Nutrition Survey

ABSTRACTBy tracking a group of individuals through time, cohort studies provide fundamental insights into the developmental time course and causes of health and disease. Evolutionary life history theory seeks to explain patterns of growth, development, reproduction and senescence, and inspires a range of hypotheses that are testable using the longitudinal data from cohort studies. Here we review two decades of life history theory-motivated work conducted in collaboration with the Cebu Longitudinal Health and Nutrition Survey (CLHNS), a birth cohort study that enrolled more than 3000 pregnant women in the Philippines in 1983 and has since followed these women, their offspring and grandoffspring. This work has provided evidence that reproduction carries “costs” to cellular maintenance functions, potentially speeding senescence, and revealed an unusual form of genetic plasticity in which the length of telomeres inherited across generations is influenced by reproductive timing in paternal ancestors. Men in Cebu experience hormonal and behavioural changes in conjunction with changes in relationship and fatherhood status that are consistent with predictions based upon other species that practice bi-parental care. The theoretical expectation that early life cues of mortality or environmental unpredictability will motivate a “fast” life history strategy are confirmed for behavioural components of reproductive decision making, but not for maturational tempo, while our work points to a broader capacity for early life developmental calibration of systems like immunity, reproductive biology and metabolism. Our CLHNS findings illustrate the power of life history theory as an integrative, lifecourse framework to guide longitudinal studies of human populations.

A Retrospective Population Study to Develop a Predictive Model of Prediabetes and Incident Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus from a Hospital Database in Japan Between 2004 and 2015.

BackgroundType 2 diabetes mellitus is a global public health problem. Prediabetes may be reversed by weight loss, diet, and lifestyle changes. However, without intervention, between 30–50% of individuals with prediabetes develop type 2 diabetes. This retrospective population study was conducted to develop a predictive model of prediabetes and incident type 2 diabetes mellitus using data from 2004 to 2015 from the DRYAD Japanese hospital database.Material/MethodsA retrospective longitudinal population study was conducted using the DRYAD database from Murakami Memorial Hospital, Gifu, Japan, to construct a predictive model for prediabetes and incident type 2 diabetes mellitus in the population. Univariate analysis and multivariate analysis were performed to identify the variables that were associated with prediabetes. These variables were used to construct (75% samples) and verify (25% samples) the predictive model.ResultsFrom 2004 to 2015, a total of 11,113 cases were identified. Multivariate logistic regression analysis included the six variables of age, waist circumference, smoking history, the presence of fatty liver, fasting blood glucose (FBG), and glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) level. Data were used to construct (75% samples) and verify (25% samples) in a predictive model. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) of the predictive model was 0.87 (0.85–0.89) in the training cohort and 0.87 (0.86–0.90) in the validation cohort.ConclusionsA prognostic model based on six variables was predictive for incident type 2 diabetes mellitus and prediabetes in a healthy population in Japan.

Is change in mental distress among adolescents predicted by sedentary behaviour or screen time? Results from the longitudinal population study The Tromsø Study: Fit Futures

ObjectiveThere is growing interest in the relationship between sedentary behaviour and mental distress among adolescents, but the majority of studies to date have relied on self-reported measures with poor validity....

Participant acceptability of digital footprint data collection strategies: an exemplar approach to participant engagement and involvement in the ALSPAC birth cohort study

IntroductionDigital footprint records – the tracks and traces amassed by individuals as a result of their interactions with the internet, digital devices and services – can provide ecologically valid data on individual behaviours. These could enhance longitudinal population study databanks; but few UK longitudinal studies are attempting this. When using novel sources of data, study managers must engage with participants in order to develop ethical data processing frameworks that facilitate data sharing whilst safeguarding participant interests.ObjectivesThis paper aims to summarise the participant involvement approach used by the ALSPAC birth cohort study to inform the development of a framework for using linked participant digital footprint data, and provide an exemplar for other data linkage infrastructures.MethodsThe paper synthesises five qualitative forms of inquiry. Thematic analysis was used to code transcripts for common themes in relation to conditions associated with the acceptability of sharing digital footprint data for longitudinal research.ResultsWe identified six themes: participant understanding; sensitivity of location data; concerns for third parties; clarity on data granularity; mechanisms of data sharing and consent; and trustworthiness of the organisation. For cohort members to consider the sharing of digital footprint data acceptable, they require information about the value, validity and risks; control over sharing elements of the data they consider sensitive; appropriate mechanisms to authorise or object to their records being used; and trust in the organisation.ConclusionRealising the potential for using digital footprint records within longitudinal research will be subject to ensuring that this use of personal data is acceptable; and that rigorously controlled population data science benefiting the public good is distinguishable from the misuse and lack of personal control of similar data within other settings. Participant co-development informs the ethical-governance framework for these novel linkages in a manner which is acceptable and does not undermine the role of the trusted data custodian.