Community-based Longitudinal Study Research Articles

Incidence and risk factors associated with progression to mild cognitive impairment among middle aged and older adults.

We performed this longitudinal 2-year follow-up study to determine the incidence and risk factors associated with MCI in middle-aged and older adults. This community-based longitudinal study was conducted in adults aged ≥ 50 years with normal cognitive function in Shanghai community, China, over a period of two years. Information about the socio-demographic, behavioral, anthropometric, and biochemical parameters was obtained at the baseline and cognitive function was assessed at the end of the follow-up period using the Montreal cognitive assessment tool. A total of 985 participants aged ≥ 50 years were included in the analysis. Incidence of MCI during the 2-year follow-up period among the study participants was 26.7% (95% CI: 24.0%-29.6%). Participants with lower level of education [primary - adjusted RR=2.79 (95% CI: 1.38-5.64 and secondary - adjusted RR=1.62 (95% CI: 1.17-2.24)], with history of cerebral infarction (adjusted RR=1.49; 95% CI: 1.05-2.12), history of cerebral hemorrhage (adjusted RR=3.20; 95% CI: 1.22-8.40) were found to have significantly higher risk of MCI. Regular tea consumption was associated with significantly reduced risk of MCI development (adjusted RR=0.69; 95% CI: 0.49-0.96). Our study found that one in four participants developed MCI during the 2-year follow-up period. Lower educational level, history of cerebral infarction, cerebral hemorrhage and tea consumption were significant determinants of MCI incidence. The target groups identified in this study should be closely monitored with regular follow-up investigations for early diagnosis and appropriate management of the condition.

Prevalence and Social-Structural Correlates of Gender-Based Violence Against Women Living With HIV in Metro Vancouver, Canada.

Violence experienced by cisgender (cis) and gender minority women living with HIV is known to be high. More work is needed to better understand how to support women living with HIV who have experienced violence. The objectives of this study are therefore to identify the prevalence and correlates of violence by any perpetrator among women living with HIV in a Canadian setting. Data were drawn from 9 years (January, 2010 to February, 2019) of a longitudinal community-based open cohort study of 350+ cis and trans women living with HIV who were living and/or accessed care in Metro Vancouver, Canada (Sexual Health and HIV/AIDS: Women's Longitudinal Needs Assessment "SHAWNA"). Participants completed baseline and biannual follow-up interviews. Bivariate and multivariable logistic regression with generalized estimating equations (GEE) were performed to identify correlates of recent (last 6 months) violence (physical and/or sexual) by any perpetrator. Adjusted odds ratios (AOR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) are presented. At baseline, prevalence of violence was high: 95.5% (recent = 19.4%) of participants reported lifetime physical and/or sexual violence, 94.8% (recent = 17.9%) reported lifetime physical violence, and 84.5% (recent = 5.7%) reported lifetime sexual violence. In multivariable logistic regression with GEE, the following variables were associated with higher odds of recent physical/sexual violence: youth (<30 years) (AOR: 1.60, 95% CI [1.15, 2.22]), recent unstable housing/homelessness (AOR: 1.96, 95% CI [1.30, 2.97]), recent food insecurity (AOR: 1.57, 95% CI [1.13, 2.17]), recent incarceration (AOR: 1.85, 95% CI [1.18, 2.91]), recent opioid use (AOR: 1.38, 95% CI [1.04, 1.82]), recent stimulant use (AOR: 2.48, 95% CI [1.72, 3.56]), and lifetime HIV status disclosure without consent (AOR: 1.59, 95% CI [1.13, 2.24]). Trauma- and violence-informed (TVI) policies that include a focus on confidentiality and safe disclosure practices should be integrated into existing housing, incarceration, and harm reduction programs, and HIV care and practice for women living with HIV. Programs and policies that address high levels of violence remain critical.

Interference between rhinovirus and other RNA respiratory viruses in the first 2-years of life: A longitudinal community-based birth cohort study.

Cross-sectional studies report negative associations between rhinovirus and other RNA respiratory viruses. However, longitudinal studies with frequent, serial sampling are needed to identify the directionality of this relationship and its nature. To investigate the association between rhinovirus and other RNA respiratory viruses detected 1-week apart. The Observational Research in Childhood Infectious Diseases cohort study was conducted in Brisbane, Australia (2010-2014). Parents collected nasal swabs weekly from birth until age 2-years. Swabs were analysed by real-time polymerase chain reaction. The association between new rhinovirus detections and five other RNA viruses (influenza, respiratory syncytial virus, parainfluenza viruses, seasonal human coronaviruses, and human metapneumovirus) in paired swabs 1-week apart were investigated. Overall, 157 children provided 8,101 swabs, from which 4,672 paired swabs 1-week apart were analysed. New rhinovirus detections were negatively associated with new pooled RNA respiratory virus detections 1-week later (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 0.48; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.13-0.83), as were pooled RNA virus detections with new rhinovirus detections the following week (aOR 0.34; 95%CI: 0.09-0.60). At the individual species level, rhinovirus had the strongest negative association with new seasonal human coronavirus detections in the subsequent week (aOR 0.34; 95%CI: 0.120.95) and respiratory syncytial virus had the strongest negative association with rhinovirus 1-week later (aOR 0.21; 95%CI: 0.050.88). A strong, negative bidirectional association was observed between rhinovirus and other RNA viruses in a longitudinal study of a community-based cohort of young Australian children. This suggests within-host interference between RNA respiratory viruses.

Impact of antibiotic intake on the incidence of extended-spectrum β-lactamase–producing Enterobacterales in sub-Saharan Africa: results from a community-based longitudinal study

ObjectivesThe global prevalence of intestinal extended-spectrum β-lactamase–producing Enterobacterales (ESBL-PE) is approximately 17% in communities, with significant variations among regions. This longitudinal study aimed to assess the impact of antibiotic intake on the incidence of intestinal ESBL-PE in Ghanaian pharmacy customers outside of hospitals. MethodsScreening for ESBL-PE was performed in four independent pharmacies in Kumasi, Ghana, using rectal swabs and an ESBL-PE–selective medium. Pharmacy customers purchasing antibiotics were recruited, and those buying non-antibiotic drugs served as controls. Participants who were negative for ESBL-PE provided follow-up swabs for up to 28 days. ResultsAt baseline, 302 (75%) of 404 participants were colonized with ESBL-PE. Sixty-three participants who were negative for ESBL-PE at baseline received per-protocol follow-up, including 28 individuals who took antibiotics and 35 controls. The cumulative proportions of ESBL-PE in the antibiotics and control groups were 71% (20/28) and 54% (19/35) at the first follow-up (p 0.258), 86% (24/28) and 80% (28/35) at the second follow-up (p 0.741) and 86% (24/28) and 94% (33/35) at the third follow-up (p 0.393), respectively. DiscussionThe rate of intestinal ESBL-PE carriage among pharmacy customers outside of hospitals was higher than expected at baseline and further increased during the 28 days of follow-up, irrespective of antibiotic intake. This alarming finding needs to be considered in the antibiotic treatment of outpatients and emphasizes the urgent need for improved prevention strategies, development of new antibiotic drugs and potential future elimination strategies. Further longitudinal studies on ESBL-PE in African communities, also outside of pharmacy settings, are required.

Prevalence and development of idiopathic normal pressure hydrocephalus: A 16-year longitudinal study in Japan.

We previously investigated the preclinical state of idiopathic normal pressure hydrocephalus (iNPH): asymptomatic ventriculomegaly with features of iNPH on magnetic resonance imaging (AVIM) found in community inhabitants. The aim of the study was to determine how iNPH develops longitudinally. A previous longitudinal prospective community-based cohort study was initiated in 2000. The 271 70year-old participants were followed up in 2016 at the age of 86 years. At this time, 104 participants could be reached for clinical examinations and brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). iNPH in this study was diagnosed if the participant had more than one symptom in the clinical triad and disproportionately enlarged subarachnoid space hydrocephalus (DESH) on MRI, fulfilling at least an Evans index >0.3 (ventricular enlargement, VE) and a narrowing of the subarachnoid space at the high convexity (tight high convexity, THC). Asymptomatic VE (AVE) plus THC were considered AVIM. Longitudinally throughout 16 years, 11 patients with iNPH were found. The hospital consultation rate was only 9%. Five of the eight patients with AVIM (62.5%) and six of 30 with AVE (20.0%) developed iNPH. Cross-sectionally, eight patients had iNPH (8/104, 7.7% prevalence at the age of 86) in 2016. Disease development was classified into THC-preceding and VE-preceding iNPH. One VE-preceding iNPH case was considered a comorbidity of Alzheimer's dementia. Idiopathic normal pressure hydrocephalus had a high prevalence among octogenarians in the evaluated community. iNPH developed not only via AVIM but also via AVE, the latter was also frequent in the elderly.

Lifetime discrimination in low to middle income mothers and cellular aging: A prospective analysis

BackgroundExperiences of discrimination on the basis of race, ethnicity, and other characteristics are associated with adverse health outcomes, including elevated rates of morbidity in later life and earlier mortality. Acceleration of biological aging is a plausible pathway linking discrimination to disease risk. The objective of this study was to examine the relationship of self-reported lifetime and everyday discrimination to women's telomere length several years after birth of a child in a longitudinal cohort study. MethodsThe Community Child Health Network (CCHN) conducted a community-based participatory research project focused on racial, ethnic, and socioeconomic disparities in maternal and child health. Data for the current substudy are from a longitudinal cohort study in 3 of the 5 project sites. This multi-site community-based longitudinal study was conducted in Lake County, IL north of Chicago, Washington, D.C., and rural North Carolina. Participants were low to middle-income mothers (N = 103) with a primary identity of Hispanic/Latina, Black, or non-Hispanic White who rated their experience of everyday and lifetime discrimination during an at-home interview one-month postpartum. Buccal samples were collected to assay buccal cell telomere length several years later when a consecutive child was 3–5 years of age. Telomere length derived from buccal cells was used as a biomarker indicating cellular aging and a risk factor for age-related disease. ResultsMothers (18–39 years old) who reported higher lifetime discrimination had shorter telomere length an average of 5.6 years later (B = −0.22 [SE = 0.04], p < 0.001). Mother's reports of everyday discrimination were not significantly related to telomere length (0.01[0.01], p = 0.15). ConclusionsThese findings suggest that lifetime exposure to discrimination, but not necessarily current reports of everyday discrimination, may increase biological aging as indicated by shorter buccal cell telomere length, providing evidence of a plausible route through which discrimination contributes to increased risk for earlier onset aging and age-related disease in women.

Air Pollution and the Effectiveness of Positive Airway Pressure Therapy in Individuals With Sleep Apnea: A Retrospective Community-Based Repeated-Measures Longitudinal Study

Ambient air pollution may affect the severity of untreated OSA, but it is unknown whether air pollution adversely impacts the effectiveness of positive airway pressure (PAP) therapy. Do short-term changes in outdoor air pollution adversely impact adults with OSA using PAP therapy? We conducted a retrospective community-based repeated-measures longitudinal study of adults with OSA who purchased a PAP device from a registered equipment provider between 2013 and 2017 (Ontario, Canada) and had data on the daily device-derived residual apnea-hypopnea index (AHIFlow). We linked daily PAP-derived data to air pollution databases using postal codes. The primary exposures were mean nocturnal (8 pm to 8 am) residential concentrations of ozone, fine particulate matter, nitrogen dioxide, carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide, and the Air Quality Health Index (AQHI). Potential confounders considered were demographics, season and year of exposure, initial OSA severity, other PAP parameters, and climate-related variables. Eight thousand one hundred forty-eight adults were analyzed with a median of 89days (interquartile range [IQR], 29-302days) of observation during which PAP was used for≥ 4 h. The median daily AHIFlow was 1.2/h (IQR, 0.5-2.5/h). In mixed multivariate regression analyses, an increase in air pollution was associated with a statistically significant increase in AHIFlow for most statistical models. The largest effect was for the AQHI: an increase in AHIFlow while comparing highest vslowest quartiles was 0.07/h (95%CI, 0.05-0.10/h). We demonstrated a modest but statistically significant increase in residual respiratory events during PAP therapy associated with an increase in air pollution concentrations.

A 5-year community program in Singapore to prevent cognitive decline.

There is a scarcity of naturalistic follow-up studies on cognitive stimulating activities (CSAs), particularly in a real-world setting and over long-term. We thus investigated a pooled novel CSA intervention to prevent cognitive decline amongst community-dwelling older adults without dementia. Nested within a community-based longitudinal follow-up cohort study of community-dwelling and multi-ethnic older adults (N=991), a subset of the cohort (n=264) underwent four single-blinded randomized controlled trials involving four novel CSAs, including mindfulness, horticulture, art therapy, and choral singing. At the cohort's 5-year follow-up, we examined if involvements in the CSAs improved cognition, compared to controls (n=727). The primary outcomes were changes in global cognition and specific cognitive domain scores measured by the mini-mental state examination (MMSE). Exploratory subgroup analyses stratified by baseline cognitive status and the number of CSAs were also conducted. Compared to the control group, there was a small improvement in the CSA group on the total MMSE score (d=0.108) and MMSE-immediate recall score (d=0.199). Furthermore, subgroup analyses revealed medium effect sizes of improvements (d=0.420) in cognitive domains in mild cognitive impairment (MCI) (vs. cognitively healthy) and those involved in two CSAs (vs. one CSA). In summary, a CSA intervention improved cognition. MCI and those involved in two CSAs gained greater benefits from the CSAs. These sustained improvements in cognitive functions could have a significant impact on delaying or preventing dementia.

Physical and mental health characteristics related to trust in and intention to receive COVID-19 vaccination: results from a Korean community-based longitudinal study.

The aim of this study was to explore factors affecting attitudes toward coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination, including socio-demographic characteristics and mental health status during the pandemic. This study analyzed responses from 1,768 participants who were originally included in a community cohort study and responded to 3 online surveys related to COVID-19 (March 2020 to March 2021). The k-means method was used to cluster trust in and intention to receive COVID-19 vaccination. Baseline (2013-2018) socio-demographic characteristics, physical health status, and depressive symptoms were analyzed as exposure variables, and current mental health status was included in the analyses. Almost half of all participants were classified into the moderate trust and high intention cluster (n=838, 47.4%); those with high trust and high intention accounted only for 16.9%. They tended to be older, had high-income levels, and engaged in regular physical activity at baseline (p<0.05), and their sleep quality and psychological resilience were relatively high compared to other groups. Our results suggest that more efforts are required to enhance the perceived need for and trust in COVID-19 vaccination.

Incidence and Predictors of Mortality among Community-Dwelling Older Adults in Malaysia: A 5 Years Longitudinal Study.

With older adults accounting for 10.7% of the Malaysian population, determining the predictors of mortality has now become crucial. Thus, this community-based longitudinal study aimed to investigate the predictors for mortality among community-dwelling older adults using a wide range of factors, including clinical or subclinical. A total of 2322 older adults were interviewed and assessed by trained fieldworkers using validated structured questionnaires. The questionnaire consisted of information on socio-demographic characteristics, health status, neuropsychological and psychosocial functions, lifestyle, dietary intake and biophysical measures. The incidence rate of mortality was 2.9 per 100 person-years. Cox regression analysis indicated that advancing age (Adjusted Hazard Ratio, Adj HR = 1.044, 95% CI: 1.024–1.064), male (Adj HR = 1.937, 95% CI: 1.402–2.675), non-married status (Adj HR = 1.410, 95% CI: 1.078–1.843), smoking (Adj HR = 1.314, 95% CI: 1.004–1.721), a higher fasting blood sugar (Adj HR = 1.075, 95% CI: 1.029–1.166), a lower serum albumin (Adj HR = 0.947, 95% CI: 0.905–0.990), a longer time to complete the TUG test (Adj HR = 1.059, 95% CI: 1.022–1.098), and a lower intake of total dietary fibre (Adj HR = 0.911, 95% CI: 0.873–0.980) were the predictors of mortality in this study. These findings provide an estimated rate of multiethnic mortality in middle-income countries and diet is one of the predictors. These predictors of mortality could be a reference in identifying new public health strategies to ensure longer healthier life spans with lower disability rate among community-dwelling older adults in Malaysia.

Association between Age of Onset of Hypertension and Incident Atrial Fibrillation.

We investigated whether age at hypertension (HTN) onset was associated with the risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) in the general population. This prospective longitudinal community-based cohort study included 9892 participants without AF at baseline, who underwent biennial electrocardiography for a median duration of 11.5 years. The participants were divided into five groups, consisting of a normotensive group (Group-N) and four HTN groups based on HTN onset age: <45 years (Group-H1); 45–54 years (Group-H2); 55–64 years (Group-H3); and ≥65 years (Group-H4). A multivariate Cox proportional hazards model showed that the presence of HTN at baseline was associated with higher AF risk (hazard ratio [HR], 1.93; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.32–2.80). The participants in Group-H1 had the highest risk of AF (HR 3.18; CI 1.74–5.82), and the risk of AF decreased as HTN onset age increased across the four HTN groups (p for trend = 0.014). The AF onset age was significantly younger in participants in Group-H1 than in Groups-H2–H4. Early-onset HTN was associated with an increased risk of AF, and younger onset of AF in the general population. Surveillance for AF should be considered at a younger age in individuals with HTN.

Demographics, sleep apnea and positive airway pressure (PAP) treatment-related characteristics associated with PAP adherence: A large retrospective community-based longitudinal observational study

Objective/backgroundDespite many years of research, multiple factors have inconsistently shown to be associated with positive airway pressure (PAP) adherence. We conducted a retrospective observational study to evaluate the association between selected demographics, obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) - and generally available PAP treatment-related factors with objective PAP therapy adherence. Patients/methodsWe considered all consented individuals with OSA who purchased a PAP device from a registered vendor (Ottawa, Ontario) between 2011 and 2017 who had usage data available (n = 11,614). PAP adherence was measured objectively as PAP use for at least 4 h on at least 70% of days on treatment. ResultsIn our cohort, 7147 (61.5%) participants were deemed adherent to PAP over a median of 214 days (IQR: 84–675). The median percentage of days PAP therapy was used was 82% (IQR: 48–97%), and the median number of days PAP therapy was used for greater than 4 h was 95 (IQR: 28–372).In multivariable logistic regression considering all variables available, increased body mass index, older age, and lower minimum SaO2 at baseline sleep study were significantly associated with increased PAP adherence. Individuals who were using PAP longer and with greater adherence during the first month were subsequently more adherent to therapy. We also found a different predictive ability of PAP adherence-related factors by age and sex. ConclusionsIn this retrospective community-based longitudinal observational study, we identified readily available demographics and OSA-related factors associated with PAP adherence. We also confirmed previous findings on age and sex disparities in adherence to PAP.

Frailty and dementia risks in asymptomatic cerebral small vessel disease: A longitudinal cohort study

ObjectivesFrailty has been shown to predict adverse outcomes in several diseases. We aimed to evaluate the associations between frailty profiles, both severity and subtype, and dementia risk in a community-based population with asymptomatic (without stroke and dementia) cerebral small vessel disease (CSVD). MethodsIndividuals with asymptomatic CSVD were recruited from the community-based I-Lan Longitudinal Aging Study between 2011 and 2014 (baseline) and were followed up between 2018 and 2019. All participants underwent CSVD assessment by 3T brain MRI, as well as physical and cognitive assessments at baseline. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to evaluate the associations between each factor and dementia conversion at follow-up. ResultsAmong 261 participants with asymptomatic CSVD (64.8 [50.0-89.1, 8.4] years; 136 [52.1%] men), 13 (5.0%) developed dementia during a mean follow-up of 5.7 (0.7) years. Dementia converters were less likely to be robust (30.8% vs. 61.5%) and more likely to be pre-frail/frail (69.2% vs. 38.5%) than non-converters (p = 0.040). Meanwhile, there was significantly more frequent mobility frailty (53.8% vs. 19.8%, p = 0.009), but a similar prevalence of non-mobility frailty in dementia converters compared with non-converters. Univariate analyses showed that neither frailty severity nor CSVD burden was associated with a higher risk of dementia; it was the frailty subtype, the mobility frailty, which was significantly associated with dementia conversion in participants with asymptomatic CSVD, with an odds-ratio of 4.8 (95% CI = 1.5–14.8, p = 0.007). The significance remained after adjusting for age, sex, education and baseline cognitive function, respectively. ConclusionMobility frailty was associated with a higher risk of incident dementia in individuals with subclinical CSVD. Mobility frailty might be involved in the pathology of cognitive decline in CSVD and potentially serve as a marker to identify people at risk of cognitive impairment at an early stage of CSVD.

Change of neck circumference in relation to visceral fat area: a Chinese community-based longitudinal cohort study

Background/ObjectivesNeck circumference (NC) has been positively associated with visceral fat area (VFA) in cross-sectional studies. This study aimed to evaluate the effects of NC changes on VFA in a Chinese community-based longitudinal cohort.Subjects/MethodsSubjects recruited from Shanghai communities were followed up for 1.1–2.9 years. A total of 1421 subjects (men 578, women 843) were included, aged 24–80 years, with an average age of 57.8 ± 7.1 years.Interventions/MethodsBiochemical and anthropometric measurements, including NC, were obtained from all subjects. VFA was assessed by magnetic resonance imaging. Abdominal obesity was defined as a VFA ≥ 80 cm2.ResultsAfter a mean follow-up of 2.1 years, the NCs for men and women were 38.1 ± 2.3 cm and 33.8 ± 2.0 cm, respectively, and the average value of VFA was 84.55 (59.83–113.50) cm2. After adjusting for age, sex, body mass index, smoking, history of drinking, glycated hemoglobin, blood pressure and blood lipids, individuals who had gained a NC of more than 5% had 1.26 (95% CI: 1.05–1.49) times more visceral adipose tissue at follow-up than NC maintainers (NC change between –2.5% and 2.5%). In the non-abdominal obesity group at baseline (n = 683), after adjusting for confounding factors, changes in NC were associated with abdominal obesity (odd ratio 1.23, 95% CI: 1.09–1.39).ConclusionsChanges in NC were positively associated with VFA in a Chinese community-based cohort, suggesting that NC measurement is practical for assessing abdominal obesity.

Statistical Analysis on Time to Blindness of Glaucoma Patients at Jimma University Specialized Hospital: Application of Accelerated Failure Time Model.

Background Glaucoma is one of the most frequent vision-threatening eye diseases. It is frequently associated with excessive intraocular pressure (IOP), which can cause vision loss and damaged optic nerves. The main objective of this study was to model time to blindness of glaucoma patients by using appropriate statistical models. Study Design. A Retrospective Community-Based Longitudinal Study design was applied. Materials and Procedures. The data were obtained from Ophthalmology Department of JUSH from the period of January 2016 to August 2020. The glaucoma patient's information was extracted from the patient card and 321 samples were included in the study. To discover the factors that affect time to blindness of glaucoma patients', researchers used the Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) model. Results 81.3 percent of the 321 glaucoma patients were blind. Unilaterally and bilaterally blinded female and male glaucoma patients were 24.92 and 56.38%, respectively. After glaucoma disease was confirmed, the median time to the blindness of both eyes and one eye was 12 months. The multivariable log-logistic accelerated failure-time model fits the glaucoma patient's time to blind dataset well. The result showed that the chance of blindness of glaucoma patients who have absolute stage of glaucoma, medium duration of diagnosis, long duration of diagnosis, and IOP greater than 21 mmHg were high with parameters (ϕ = 2.425, p value = 0.049, 95% CI [2.249, 2.601]), (ϕ = 1.505, p value = 0.001, 95% CI [0.228, 0.589]), (ϕ = 3.037, p value = 0.001, 95% C.I [2.850, 3.22]) and (ϕ 0.851, p value = 0.034, 95% C.I [0.702, 0.999]), respectively. Conclusion The multivariable log-logistic accelerated failure time model evaluates the prognostic factors of time to blindness of glaucoma patients. Under this finding, duration of diagnosis, IOP, and stage of glaucoma were a key determinant factors of time to blindness of glaucoma patients'. Finally, the log-logistic accelerated failure-time model was the best-fitted parametric model based on AIC and BIC values.

Non-B, Non-C Hepatocellular Carcinoma in an HBV- and HCV-Endemic Area: A Community-Based Prospective Longitudinal Study.

A large community cohort of adults who participated in a health screening program from 2003 to 2013 were prospectively analyzed for the risk factors of non-B, non-C (NBNC) hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The serostatus of hepatitis B and C of 52,642 participants was linked to the mortality and cancer registration data of the Health and Welfare Data Science Center, Ministry of Health and Welfare, Taiwan. During a median follow-up of 6 years, 35 of the 43,545 participants who were negative for both HBsAg and anti-HCV antibody developed HCC. Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that old age (hazard ratio, 95% CI: 1.058, 1.019–1.098, p = 0.003); male sex (2.446, 1.200–4.985, p = 0.014); high aspartate aminotransferase levels (6.816, 2.945–15.779, p < 0.001); fibrosis index based on four factor score (1.262, 1.154–1.381, p < 0.001); blood sugar (1.009, 1.002–1.015, p = 0.006); and alpha-fetoprotein ≥15 ng/mL (143.938, 43.094–480.760, p < 0.001) were independent risk factors for HCC. By contrast, triglyceride >150 mg/dL was associated with a decreased risk of HCC (0.216, 0.074–0.625, p = 0.005). This prospective community-based study provided insights into the potential HCC risk factors which may shed some light in HCC prevention and screening.

Breakfast Protein Quality and Muscle Strength in Japanese Older Adults: A Community-Based Longitudinal Study.

The amount of breakfast protein intake is important for maintaining muscle strength. However, the effect of breakfast protein quality (ie, bioavailability) remains unclear. We investigated the association between breakfast protein quality and the incidence of muscle weakness. Longitudinal study. Healthy older adults age 60-83years without stroke, arthritis, Parkinson disease, or muscle weakness at baseline (maximum follow-up period and participations were 9.2years and 5 times, respectively). Weakness was defined by the Asian Working Group for Sarcopenia 2019 criteria, using grip strength. Breakfast protein quality was evaluated using the protein digestibility-corrected amino acid score (PDCAAS), where higher scores represent higher quality, calculated from 3-day dietary records. Participants were classified according to sex-stratified tertiles of breakfast PDCAAS (ie, low to high groups). The association between PDCAAS and incident weakness was analyzed using the generalized estimating equation, after adjusting for sex, age, follow-up time, grip strength, body mass index, physical activity, cognition, education, smoking, economics, medical history, lunch and dinner PDCAASs, and energy and protein intake during 3 regular meals at baseline. Overall, 14.4% of the initial sample was excluded owing to a diagnosis of weakness-related diseases, and 58.3% (n= 701) had at least 1 follow-up measurement for inclusion in the analysis. The mean ± SD follow-up period was 6.9 ± 2.1years; the cumulative number of participants was 3019, and 282 developed weakness. Using the low PDCAAS group as the reference, the adjusted odds ratios (95% CIs) for incident weakness in the middle and high PDCAAS groups were 0.71 (0.43-1.18) and 0.50 (0.29-0.86), respectively. Higher breakfast protein quality was associated with a reduction in incident weakness in older adults, independent of protein intake. These findings may highlight the role of protein quality for muscle health in older adults.

Risk of COVID-19 re-infection and its predictors (CORES): protocol for a community-based longitudinal cohort study in Vellore, India

IntroductionThe incidence of SARS-CoV-2 re-infection has not been widely evaluated in low-income and middle-income countries. Understanding immune responses elicited by SARS-CoV-2 natural infection and factors that lead to re-infection in...

OA28 Exploring the potential of polygenic risk scores for predicting coronary artery disease in patients with rheumatoid arthritis

Abstract Background/Aims Patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) have a higher prevalence of coronary artery disease (CAD) than the general population which contributes to early mortality. Current screening tools for CAD, which are developed in the general population, are less effective for estimating CAD risk in patients with RA. This reduced performance is mainly due to the differing contribution from traditional risk factors and the contribution from disease-specific factors. Our understanding of the genetic basis of CAD has improved over recent years and shows promise for improving risk prediction in the form of polygenic risk scores (PRS). We hypothesise that PRS can help us improve CAD risk prediction in patients with RA by providing more accurate models of risk. Methods Patients were recruited from the Norfolk Arthritis Register (NOAR), a detailed community-based longitudinal observational study focused on the cause and outcome of inflammatory polyarthritis, between 1990 and 2017. Analysis was restricted to patients who satisfied the 2010 ACR criteria cumulatively over five years and had detailed clinical history at baseline and follow-up. We developed a prediction model based on traditional risk factors and explored the inclusion of a PRS (49K SNPs) in a subset of patients with available genetic data. Cox proportional hazards models were used to derive risk equations for evaluation of 10-year risk of CAD. We applied multiple imputations with chained equations using the Random Forest algorithm to replace missing values. Measures of calibration and discrimination were determined in the validation cohort of 423 individuals. Results A total of 2123 patients were included in the analysis with 136 incident cases of self-reported CAD. The model using only traditional risk factors achieved an AUC of 0.72 (95% CI 0.71, 0.73), with a calibration slope of 1.03, and explained approximately 50% (95% CI 47, 52%) of the variance of the outcome. We found that being male reduces the risk by a factor of 0.82 (95% CI 0.68, 1.00). The hazard ratio for age was found to be 1.00 (95% CI 0.99, 1.01) indicating risk remains the same across all age groups. Inclusion of a CAD PRS increased the performance with an AUC of 0.76 (95% CI 0.75, 0.77), explained variance of 53% (95% CI 49, 56%) but with a slightly worse calibration slope of 0.91. Conclusion An integrated risk score, that combines traditional risk factors with a PRS, improves CAD prediction in patients with RA. Further research is required to better understand the role of heritable components contributing to CAD risk in RA patients. By refining the underlying PRS, we hope to further improve CAD risk prediction in RA patients, through this integrated approach. Disclosure M. Soomro: None. M. Stadler: None. S. Viatte: None. A. MacGregor: None. S. Verstappen: None. A. Barton: None. J. Bowes: None.

Prognosis of chronic kidney disease in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: a Northeastern Taiwan community medicine research cohort

BackgroundNon-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is associated with incident chronic kidney disease (CKD). We aimed to investigate outcomes and risk factors of CKD progression and regression. MethodsThis is a longitudinal community-based cohort study of patients with NAFLD. Exclusion criteria included alcoholic liver diseases, sero-positive for hepatitis B surface antigen, sero-positive for hepatitis C virus antibodies, fatty liver index <60, individuals with only one year of data, missing data for fibrosis-4 score (FIB-4 score) and NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS), and advanced CKD at baseline. Main outcomes were stratified according to estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria categories as state 1 (low risk), state 2 (moderately increased risk), and state 3 (high-risk/very-high risk of progression). The multi-state Markov model was used for outcome analysis. ResultsThis study included 1628 patients with NAFLD with a median follow-up of 3.4 years. State 2 CKD was found in 9.3% of patients at 5 years (95% CI, 8.1%–10.6%). Most patients with state 2 CKD recovered to state 1 (69%; 95% CI, 63.7%–74%), while 17.6% progressed to state 3 (95% CI, 13.4%–22.7%). Advanced liver fibrosis was found to be associated with the risk of transitioning from state 1 to state 2 ((FIB-4 score) ≥1.3; hazard ratio (HR), 1.42; 95% CI, 1.02–2.00), and reduced recovery from state 2 to state 1 (NFS≥−1.455; HR, 0.56; 95% CI, 0.34–0.91). ConclusionNAFLD severity is associated with CKD, which may be reversible before becoming high-risk. Controlling metabolic risk factors and preventing advanced liver fibrosis are recommended.