Long-term Shifts Research Articles

A Long-Term Perspective of Seasonal Shifts in Nutrient Dynamics and Eutrophication in the Romanian Black Sea Coast

This study investigates the long-term seasonal shifts in nutrient dynamics and eutrophication processes in the Romanian Black Sea coastal waters using multi-decadal data (1960/1976/1980–2023). The findings highlight significant seasonal and interannual changes, revealing a progressive rise in seawater temperature, declining oxygen concentrations, and notable shifts in nutrient stoichiometry, particularly an increasing nitrogen–phosphorus (N:P) ratio. These changes are closely associated with increased occurrences of harmful algal blooms (Noctiluca scintillans), emphasizing the complex relationship between warming, nutrient and dissolved oxygen cycles, and biological activity. Seasonal patterns show that prolonged warmer periods, especially during autumn, exacerbate oxygen depletion and nutrient imbalances, with implications for marine life and food webs. The study underscores the importance of targeted nitrogen reduction strategies, including optimized fertilizer use, improved wastewater treatment, and the establishment of buffer zones to minimize land-based nutrient inputs. Regional cooperation and integrated coastal management aligned with the Marine Strategy Framework Directive are essential for mitigating eutrophication. The results provide critical insights into the impacts of climate change on the Black Sea ecosystems. This research contributes to global efforts under SDG 13 (Climate Action), SDG 14 (Life Below Water), and SDG 3 (Good Health and Well-being), addressing the key challenges to marine biodiversity, water quality, and ecosystem sustainability.

Improving the understanding of rainfall-runoff processes: Temporal dynamic of event runoff response in Loess Plateau, China.

Enhancing the understanding of the rainfall-runoff temporal dynamics in semi-arid and semi-humid regions is crucial for flood disaster mitigation. Loess Plateau is a unique environment within semi-arid and semi-humid regions, characterized by its deep loess soil, prevalent short-duration intense rainfall, and changes in underlying surface conditions. In this research, 25 catchments from the Loess Plateau were chosen to examine the temporal variations in event runoff responses across different time scales. The study analyzed event rainfall characteristics, catchment wetness conditions, and runoff responses to identify the factors influencing event-to-event variability, seasonal patterns, and long-term shifts in runoff behavior. The results show that the event runoff response exhibits distinct patterns across different ecological regions of Loess Plateau. In the Loess Hilly and Gully region, the event runoff response is primarily influenced by rainfall intensity characteristics and occurs due to infiltration excess. In the River Valley Plain and Earth-rocky Mountainous regions characterized by a humid climate, event runoff response is influenced by pre-event soil moisture and shows a strong correlation with rainfall volume. In the Loess Hilly and Gully region, catchments experience a noticeable transition between saturated and unsaturated states over long-term changes, driven by the combined impacts of land use and climate changes. The study provides insights into the mechanisms behind runoff generation at the catchment scale and offers valuable information for flood forecasting in semi-arid and semi-humid regions.

The role of intersectionality in shaping adaptive capacity of smallholder farmers in the Talensi district of Ghana

ABSTRACT In the Talensi district of Ghana, smallholder farmers adapt to climate change—including variability, extreme weather events, and long-term temperature shifts—in varied and unequal ways. This study delves into the intersectional nature of this inequality. Specifically, it explores how the socio-demographics of these smallholder farmers intersect with their livelihood capitals, shaping their capacity for climate adaptation. Drawing from a systematic random sample of 130 smallholder farmers and six focus group discussions and employing descriptive and inferential statistics and narrative analysis, the research unpacks how livelihood capital indicators intersect with these farmers’ socio-demographics, either supporting or constraining their climate adaptation efforts. The findings underscore how socio-demographic identities and livelihood resources result in unequal adaptive capacities and opportunities within heterogeneous communities. This research enriches the intersectionality literature, advocating for an intersectional approach to vulnerability studies. Such an approach can yield a deeper insight into vulnerability, allowing researchers to identify and understand vulnerable groups more precisely. An intersectionality approach is essential to avoid overshadowing complex local realities, which could inadvertently neglect the needs of many individuals and exacerbate existing vulnerabilities.

Projected Shifts in Potential Evapotranspiration under the Impact of Climate Change for India and Karnataka: A Jensen-Haise Approach

Climate change, driven by long-term shifts in weather patterns caused by greenhouse gas emissions, has profound effects on agriculture, particularly crop production, which is highly dependent on weather conditions. Changes in rainfall patterns and rising temperatures can significantly reduce crop yields, especially in subtropical regions like India. Elevated levels of CO2 and temperature influence key biological processes such as respiration, photosynthesis, plant growth, reproduction, and water use. One crucial aspect of crop management affected by climate change is evapotranspiration, which plays a central role in the soil-plant-atmosphere water balance and determines irrigation frequency. Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) refers to the total water loss through the combined processes of transpiration and evaporation, both of which are governed by weather factors such as temperature, humidity, solar radiation, and wind. PET is an important indicator of the water that needs to be replenished through rainfall or irrigation, and its estimation is critical for calculating crop water requirements and adjusting irrigation schedules to maximize water efficiency. As climate change intensifies, it is essential to estimate PET for various crops, cropping systems, and agro-ecosystems over the coming decades to ensure effective crop and resource management. This study estimates PET for India, including Karnataka, from 2021 to 2070 using the Jensen-Haise method. The results show a mix of increasing and decreasing trends in annual PET, but an overall slight upward trend is projected over the 50-year period. The average annual PET for Karnataka is estimated at 2,516 mm/year, with an increasing trend expected in the next five decades. The highest monthly PET values are predicted for April (279.30 mm), May (307.46 mm), and June (319.36 mm). These projected increases in PET must be factored into crop selection, cropping systems, and water management plans to ensure sustainable crop yields and improved water use efficiency in the face of climate change.

NURSES’ AWARENESS, CONCERN, MOTIVATION, AND BEHAVIOR TOWARD HEALTH AND CLIMATE CHANGE

Climate change significantly impacts health, food security, housing, safety, and work through long-term shifts in temperature and weather patterns. In Jakarta, these changes have led to the city experiencing the worst air pollution in Indonesia, with an Air Quality Index (AQI) score of 161. Nurses play a vital role in educating the public about behavioral changes to mitigate the effects of climate change. This study aimed to assess nurses' awareness, concerns, motivation, and behaviors related to health and climate change in a private hospital in Jakarta. This quantitative descriptive study involved 92 respondents selected through purposive sampling. The data were collected using the Climate, Health, and Nursing Tool (CHANT) questionnaire. The analysis revealed that nurses' awareness of evidence-based information on climate change ranged from "somewhat familiar" to "moderately familiar." Their concerns about the impacts of climate change were rated from "somewhat concerned" to "moderately concerned." Nurses' motivation levels were reported as ranging from "somewhat motivated" to "very motivated" regarding health and climate change. Behavioral practices to mitigate climate change varied, with activities at home ranging from "rarely" to "often" and those in the hospital ranging from "sometimes" to "often." This research highlights the need to enhance nurses' knowledge and awareness of health and climate change and serves as a reference for future studies exploring the intersection of nursing, health, and climate change in Indonesia.

Tracing long-term commute mode choice shifts in Beijing: four years after the COVID-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought urban mobility into a new era. This study traces post-pandemic shifts in commute mode switch behaviors and their environmental effects based on an event study design and a mobile phone signaling dataset for Beijing from April 2018 to November 2023. The results show that in the outbreak stage, public transit mode share nosedived, with transit riders 5.11 and 3.75 times more likely to switch to private car and active modes, respectively; in the post-pandemic stage, public transit recovered rapidly and to a large extent, but the increase of private mode dependency persisted, as transit riders were 1.88 times more likely to switch to private cars, and transit riders and car drivers were 1.37 and 1.32 times more likely to adopt active modes, respectively; in the pandemic-free stage, signs of private car dominance began to emerge, as driving habits strengthened and more active travelers resorted to driving, indicating the closing of the window of opportunity to promote low-carbon private transport. This study presents the longest longitudinal tracking of post-pandemic travel mode choice so far. The challenges and opportunities faced by the transportation system are discussed, and policy implications and future research directions are provided.

Undergraduate health science students’ knowledge, attitudes, practices, and perceived barriers towards research at Kuwait university: a cross-sectional study

Abstract Introduction Research is the most reliable strategy to advance scientific understanding and enhance multiple healthcare services1. Integrating undergraduate health science students into research at an early stage is an important step towards improving critical thinking and problem-based solving, which in return enhances patient health outcomes2. Aim The aim of this study was to assess undergraduate health science students’ knowledge, attitudes, practices and perceived barriers towards research at Kuwait University. Methods A cross-sectional study was conducted among undergraduate health science students from the Colleges of Pharmacy, Medicine, Allied Health, Dentistry, and Public Health at Kuwait University. A self-administered online questionnaire consisting of five sections was used. The first section included questions to assess the demographic characteristics. The second section aimed to assess the knowledge of undergraduate students regarding basic research (score = low ≤3, moderate 4-5, high >5). The third section assessed attitude toward research by a five-point Likert scale (score = negative 31-75, neutral 76-110, positive 111-155). The fourth section of the questionnaire aimed to assess the perception of the barriers toward research practice (score = low 0-50, moderate 51-75, high 76-100). Finally, a section with eight questions on research practices. The questionnaire was distributed through online educational and social media platforms, such as WhatsApp and Microsoft Teams. Students from any academic year and who were enrolled as health science students at the time of the study were eligible to participate. The questionnaire was pilot tested prior to distribution. The recommended sample size was calculated using Raosoft (344 students)3. Ethical approval was received from The Health Sciences Ethical Committee, Kuwait University (reference: VDR/EC-393). Results A total of 364 undergraduate medicine, dentistry, pharmacy, allied health and public health students participated in the study. The participants were from different academic stages, ranging from first-year to seventh-year. The results showed that the students possessed moderate knowledge levels, with a median of 3 out of 8 according to the scoring system of the study. Most students had neutral attitudes (N=253; 69.5%) and moderate levels of perceived barriers (N=200; 54.9%). Medical and pharmacy students had significantly higher knowledge levels compared to the others (p<0.001; Kruskal-Wallis). The majority of students agreed that the lack of time is a barrier towards conducting research (N=237; 65.1%). Almost one half of the study participants took part in research projects (N=175; 48.1%) and a promising number of students had publications or poster presentations (N=67; 18.4%). Discussion/Conclusion The results suggest that undergraduate health science students at Kuwait University possess moderate research knowledge and have neutral attitudes towards research. Time constraints were the most frequently reported barrier to participation. While nearly half of the students participated in research projects, implementing mandatory research projects and providing research methodology workshops could significantly enhance student knowledge, attitudes, and future research engagement. A key limitation in this study is that observed relationships may not reflect long-term shifts in knowledge, attitudes, or practices. The study was also conducted in one university (Kuwait University), therefore the findings and results cannot be generalized to other undergraduate students.

Emergence of black spot syndrome in Caribbean reefs: a century of fish collections reveal long-term increases in Scaphanocephalus infection.

Despite evidence that certain diseases of marine wildlife are increasing, long-term infection data are often lacking. Archived samples of hosts from natural history collections offer a powerful tool for evaluating temporal changes in parasitism. Using vouchered fish collections from the Southern Caribbean, we investigated long-term (1905-2022) shifts in infections by the trematode Scaphanocephalus spp., which causes black spot syndrome (BSS) in reef fishes. Examination of 190 museum-preserved fishes from Curaçao and Bonaire revealed that Scaphanocephalus infections are not new, with histologically confirmed detections from as early as 1948. However, Scaphanocephalus was rare among archival surgeonfish and parrotfishes, with an infection prevalence of <10% and an average abundance of 0.25 metacercariae per fish. Contemporary collections of 258 ocean surgeonfish and parrotfishes (7 species) supported a 7-fold higher prevalence (71%) and a 49-fold higher abundance (12.1). These findings offer evidence that infections by Scaphanocephalus spp. have increased substantially over the past century and underscore the value of biological repositories in the study of emerging parasites within marine ecosystems. We emphasize the need for additional research to evaluate the geographical extent of BSS emergence, test proposed hypotheses related to shifts in host density or environmental characteristics and assess the consequences for affected species.

Climate Change Impact on the Stability of Soil Slopes from a Hydrological and Geotechnical Perspective

Climate change (CC) is expected to cause significant changes in weather patterns, leading to extreme phenomena. Specifically, the intensity of precipitation extremes is continuously escalating, even in regions with decreasing average precipitation levels. Given that CC leads to long-term shifts in weather patterns and may affect the precipitation characteristics (i.e., frequency, duration, and intensity) directly related to groundwater table fluctuations and soil erosion phenomena, it has the potential to significantly affect soil slope instabilities. In turn, slope stability and the structural integrity of nearby structures and infrastructure will be affected. Accordingly, the present paper focuses on the impact of CC on the geohazard of soil slope instability by considering both hydrological aspects, i.e., the impact on rainfall intensity on the groundwater table and the geotechnical aspects of this complex problem. The findings reveal that the impact of CC on potential slope instabilities can be detrimental or even beneficial, depending on the specific site and water conditions. Therefore, it is essential to do the following: (a) collect all the available data of the area of interest, (b) assess their variations over time, and (c) examine each potentially unstable slope on a case-by-case basis to properly mitigate this geohazard.

Changes of nestling ringing dates in nine bird species over seven decades

Climate change co-occurs with an advancement of avian breeding season (indexed as laying dates or fledging dates) in the temperate zone, suggesting a causality between them. Here, we investigate whether the long-term shifts in nestling (chick) ringing dates also mirror this phenomenon. This index is biased by inherent shortcomings, such as the non-independence of dates (in nestmates, colony members), poor accuracy (long period suitable for ringing), and strange shape of distributions. These shortcomings can be reduced by applying the median of annual ringing dates as an index of breeding phenology. The advantage of this index is that data are available for long periods and large sample sizes. By accepting certain compromise between statistical discipline and fieldwork realities, we examined changes in the breeding phenology of 9 bird species from 1951 to 2020 in Hungary. We found that the annual median of ringing dates advanced significantly (by 9–14 days) in the Black-headed Gull, Common Kestrel, Barn Swallow, Great Tit, and Eurasian Blue Tit. Contrarily, no significant (all P > 0.16) changes occurred in the case of the Common Tern, Black-crowned Night-heron, Common Buzzard, and Long-eared Owl. We also found that the proportion of Great Tits’ second brood has been reduced in recent decades.

تقييم تأثير نفاذية صخور المكمن في حقن الغاز وتحسين عامل استخلاص النفط بواسطة برنامج Eclipse

This paper examines on the effect of the reservoir rock permeability on gas injection by using reservoir simulation. This task will be performed by using reservoir simulation software (Eclipse). This injection interacts with CO2 to create conditions favorable for oil recovery. The main target of this project is to investigate the effect of the reservoir rock permeability on gas injection and the optimum injection rate to get the optimum recovery. The problems statement of this study is: As the oil and gas in a formation is produced, the hydrocarbons remaining in the reservoir may become trapped because the pressure in the formation has lessened, making production either slow dramatically or stop altogether. Climate change refers to long-term shifts in temperatures and weather patterns. Burning fossil fuels generates greenhouse gas emissions that act like a blanket wrapped around the Earth, trapping the sun’s heat and raising temperatures. Examples of greenhouse gas emissions that are causing climate change include carbon dioxide and methane. The result of effect of the reservoir rock permeability on gas injection by using reservoir simulation shows that with the increase in the permeability of reservoir rock, the rate of gas production increases. The greater the permeability of rocks, the rate of water production increases, which is a direct method relationship between water production and permeability. We note after this evaluation that the cumulative oil, water, and gas production increases with the increase in rock permeability. Keywords: Reservoir Rock Permeability: Gas Injection: Reservoir Simulation “ECLIPSE Software”.

Assessment of shift in GWPZs in Kashmir Valley of Northwestern Himalayas

Groundwater is a critical resource for the Kashmir Valley, which is increasingly pressured by urbanization and climate change. This study aims to delineate Groundwater Potential Zones (GWPZs) in the Kashmir Valley using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Geographical Information Systems (GIS). The research integrates eight thematic layers, including geology, geomorphology, slope, drainage density, land use/land cover (LULC), lineament density, rainfall, and topographic wetness index (TWI), to assess GWPZs for 1995, 2010, and 2020. Weights for each layer were assigned based on their influence on groundwater dynamics. The generated GWPZs were classified into five classes: very high, high, moderate, low, and very low. Over 25 years, significant changes in GWPZs were observed: very low potential zones decreased by 45.17%, low potential zones by 26.17%, and very high potential zones by 72.95%. Conversely, moderate potential zones increased by 50.87%, and high potential zones saw a slight increase of 9.00%. Results indicated that high and very high GWPZs are predominantly located in the valley's alluvial plains, primarily covered by agricultural and partially horticultural land. Validation of the generated GWPZs using bore well locations, discharge data, and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves demonstrated high accuracy, with Area Under the Curve (AUC) values of 0.915, 0.898, and 0.890 for the respective years. These findings underscore the adverse impact of urbanization on groundwater potential zonation and emphasize the need for sustainable water management practices. This study provides valuable insights into the long-term shifts in groundwater potential in response to urban expansion and climate change. It highlights the importance of continuous monitoring and adaptive management to safeguard groundwater resources.

Communication, Climate Mitigation, and Behavior Change Interventions: Understanding Message Design and Digital Media Technologies

Using the socio-ecological model of social and behavior change communication, our review highlights current trends in understanding message design factors and media technologies promoting proenvironment and climate mitigative behaviors. We explain that much of this research has focused on the individual level, and relatively few studies have been conducted at the interpersonal and community levels. With respect to changing communication ecology, we note the potential for research on the use of social media platforms to influence positive behavior changes and, conversely, the challenges of misinformation and its impact on behavior shifts. This area requires further investigation as these communication platforms transform and become increasingly relevant. Additionally, we need to explicate the long-term shifts and impacts of behavior change interventions as well as track behaviors over time. Overall, our review underscores the continued need for research across different geographical, sociopolitical, and technological contexts.

Climate Change Effects on Spatiotemporal Distribution of Precipitation over West Central India: A Statistical Downscaling Approach

The long-term shifts in temperatures and weather patterns are referred to as climate change. Climate change not only leads to long-term shifts in average temperatures but also changes in the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall over continents. This study aims to predict likely changes in the rainfall pattern induced by climate change over the West Central (WC) region of India. The approach uses a statistical downscaling technique that converts coarse-scale outputs of the global climate model (GCM) to high-resolution future precipitation projections giving refined distribution. The decision support tool that uses a robust statistical downscaling technique viz. statistical downscaling model (SDSM) is used for assessing local climate change impacts. The research includes the study of likely regional climate variability, by integrating historical observational data and empirical relationships between large-scale climate variables and local weather patterns. Historical data and the SDSM, version 4.2, are employed to forecast future rainfall trends. Rainfall data from the India Meteorological Department and the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) from 1961 to 2001 are used along with outputs from general circulation models (GCMs), viz. Hadley Centre coupled model, version 3 (HadCM3), and coupled global climate model, version 3 (CGCM3), for the period 1961–2099. Rainfall scenarios are presented for three future time periods (2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2099). The study indicates a significant increase in the mean annual precipitation across the West Central India region, particularly in the 2050s and 2080s. Mean annual rainfall is projected to rise by 10–19.4% under HadCM3 A2 and B2 scenarios. The HadCM3 indicates the month of September as the month of the highest precipitation in later time periods, whereas it is the month of August, according to CGCM3 simulations. When comparing the results of the two models, HadCM3 gives better results, as indicated by better R2 value in validation. Thus, the analysis gives climate change-induced likely changes in the spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation over the West Central India region. The insight given by the work will be useful for decision making in many sectors like agriculture, water management, disaster risk reduction, and infrastructure planning.

Climate Change Effects in Stock Markets

Climate change significantly impacts global stock markets through both short-term extreme weather events and long-term climate shifts. This study examines the relationship between CO2 emissions and stock returns across 19 countries from 2001 to 2020 using regression analysis. The findings also reveal a positive correlation between CO2 emissions and stock returns, indicating that investors anticipate higher returns to offset climate-related risks. This suggests that higher CO2 emissions drive investor expectations for increased returns to compensate for potential economic losses. The study highlights the importance of balanced emission reduction strategies and promoting green finance to support sustainable economic growth. Additionally, it underscores the need to integrate climate risks into financial decision-making, offering valuable insights into the financial implications of climate change and guiding policymakers and investors in addressing these challenges. By providing empirical evidence on the link between CO2 emissions and stock returns, this research enriches existing knowledge and emphasizes the financial risks and opportunities presented by climate change. The study's results align with the carbon risk premium theory, which posits that investors demand higher returns from companies with higher carbon emissions. This study advocates for policies that balance economic growth with environmental sustainability, promoting green finance initiatives to facilitate the transition to a low-carbon economy and mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on financial markets.

Identifying groundwater characteristics and controlling factors in Jiaozhou Bay’s northern coastal region, China: a combined approach of multivariate statistics, isotope analysis, and field empirical investigations

Explicit identification of hydrochemical processes and their controlling factors within groundwater systems is critical for the sustainable utilization of water resources in coastal urban areas. This study was undertaken in the North Coastal Region of Jiaozhou Bay (NCRJB), located in the eastern part of Shandong Province, China, an area grappling with significant issues of groundwater quality degradation and water scarcity. A total of 105 groundwater samples and 34 surface water samples, collected from 2020 to 2024, were analyzed and studied using various hydrogeological tools, multivariate statistical analyses, and water quality assessment methods. These include the Piper diagram, hydrochemical facies evolution diagram (HFE-D), Principal Components Analysis (PCA), correlation analysis, stable isotope analysis, Water Quality Index (WQI), and USSL diagrams. The results indicated that all surface water and pore groundwater samples were categorized as Na-Cl type, exhibiting high Total Dissolved Solids (TDS) and Electrical Conductivity (EC) values, characteristics that render them poor to unsuitable for drinking and irrigation purposes. The fracture groundwater is predominantly of the Ca-Na-Cl mixed type, with average suitability for irrigation and a limited proportion (22.5%) deemed suitable for drinking. Seawater intrusion, primarily through the surface water system, and the impact of human activities were identified as the predominant controlling factors con-tributing to the degradation of the local groundwater environment. Field empirical investigations further validated the results derived from hydrogeological assessments, multivariate statistical analyses, and isotopic approaches. The long-term shifts in hydrochemical properties, along with the latent threat of seawater intrusion, exhibit an upward trend during the dry season and show a certain degree of mitigation during the wet season. This study highlights that field investigations, in conjunction with hydrochemical tools, multivariate statistical analyses, and stable isotope analysis, can successfully furnish reliable insights into the predominant mechanisms governing regional groundwater evolution within the context of long-term and intricate envi-ronmental settings.

Participation of Citizen as Social Capital in LAPOR! Application in Indonesia

Citizen engagement is crucial for the success of smart cities. In urban areas, communities as social capital has an interpersonal bond that unites people. Due to the complexity of urban issues like pollution, waste, and population density, citizens can monitor the government's work priorities to solve the problem. This article focuses on smart cities from a human-centered perspective, emphasizing the role of information technology. In Indonesia, citizens' rights awareness is facilitated by the National Public Service Complaint Management System (SP4N) or People's Aspiration and Online Complaints Service (LAPOR!), which acts as social capital. This article explores five key aspects of smart cities and smart citizenship: governance, citizen participation, infrastructure, public spaces, and urban livability. While ICT-driven approaches can swiftly transform cities, a community-based approach fosters long-term shifts. Meanwhile, limited citizen involvement contributes to ecosystem degradation in Indonesia and underscores the urgency and importance of citizen engagement in urban planning. In democratic societies, citizens hold power, and concepts of smart citizenship encompass civic intelligence and, at the same time, also value local knowledge. In Indonesia, LAPOR! reflects smart citizenship, enabling transparent reporting of aspirations and complaints. However, factors like limited access and education of citizens affect its use. This research used qualitative methods with content analysis methods. Qualitative content analysis is used to examine the textual content of websites. Using LAPOR! SP4N in Indonesia to see the implementation of the concept of smart society and smart city. Participatory processes should contribute substantially to urban planning and governance. Information technology serves as a temporary solution for long-term urban planning issues. Broader concerns like public policy and participatory democracy must also be considered. In conclusion, this article explores the dynamic relationship between smart cities and smart citizenship, highlighting the importance of active citizen engagement and the potential of technology to empower communities for positive urban transformations.

Impacts of changing weather patterns on the dynamics of water pollutants in agricultural catchments: Insights from 11-year high temporal resolution data analysis

Widespread and long-term shifts in weather patterns are contributing to further degradation of surface water quality. This challenge caused by the increasing frequency of extreme weather events requires appropriate adaptation of current mitigation strategies. But to confirm the need to redesign such strategies, an understanding of the impacts of increasing weather extremes on pollutant losses in different catchment types is required. With this in view, this study investigated the impact of changing weather patterns on the inter-seasonal and inter-annual dynamics of nutrient losses in six agricultural catchments in Ireland over 11 years. The high temporal resolution data (10-min) from these intensively managed catchments represented different characteristics and management practices. Mann-Kendall Trend Analysis and Generalised Additive Models were used to study nutrient concentration trends, and to investigate the significance of water discharge, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, soil moisture deficit, air temperature, and soil temperature on the losses of nutrients, respectively. The analysis of historical data revealed changes in the trends of daily average nitrate (NO3-N), phosphorus (P), and suspended sediment (SS) concentrations in association with significant increasing trends in air temperature, soil temperature, and precipitation across the same month over 11 years of monitoring. While discharge was significantly contributing to the concentrations of NO3-N, P, and SS across different catchments, air and soil temperature were significantly correlated to NO3-N losses, and precipitation was the major contributor to regulating P (total P and total reactive P) concentrations. In short, air temperature, soil temperature, soil moisture deficit, and precipitation were the main climatic drivers regulating the nutrient concentrations while the soil chemistry and drainage status were the non-climatically related drivers. The results revealed that the extent of the impact of climatic drivers depends on catchment characteristics. Therefore, expanding the application of this type of study would facilitate better understanding of current and future challenges to water management and provision of climate-resilient mitigation strategies for different catchment typologies.

North Atlantic Oscillation polarity during the past 3000 years derived from sediments of a large lowland lake, Schweriner See, in NE Germany

Abstract. Based on a multi-dating and multi-proxy approach, we reconstruct Late Holocene environmental changes derived from sediments of Schweriner See, a large lowland lake in NE Germany, covering the past 3070+170/-210 years cal BP. We infer variations in large-scale atmospheric circulation systems by combining in-lake productivity indicators obtained from traditional and high-resolution techniques (e.g. LOI550, TOC, inc / coh), diatom assemblages, and compound-specific hydrogen isotopes (δ2HC25). Before 105+95/−75 cal BP (∼1850 CE), changes in productivity and the occurrence or disappearance of the diatom species Stephanocostis chantaicus reflect winter temperature variability, while variations in the compound-specific hydrogen isotopes suggest changes in the moisture source region. We observe distinct variations between (i) milder winter temperatures with a moisture source region in the southern–central North Atlantic and (ii) colder winter temperatures with a moisture source in the northern North Atlantic and/or Arctic regions. Such distinct variations in winter temperature and moisture source region are mainly modulated by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This affects, among others, westerly wind strength and pathways and, thereby, winter temperature and moisture source region for northern central Europe. Besides these long-term shifts in atmospheric conditions, short-term variations in titanium can be linked to lake-level variability, most likely influenced by changes in precipitation and/or evaporation, and after the 12th century to anthropogenic impacts. Since 105+95/-75 cal BP (∼1850 CE), productivity has been driven predominantly by nutrient availability related to anthropogenic activities masking the hydroclimatic signal.

Assessing the impact of climate variability on wheat yield in Bloemfontein wheat farms through time series analysis

Climate change, characterized by long-term shifts in global or regional weather patterns, is a consequence of natural processes and human activities. These shifts encompass al-terations in temperature, precipitation, wind patterns, and other climatic variables, all of which exert direct influence on crop growth, development, and overall agricultural productivity. Comprehending the intricate relationship between climate change and crop production is par-amount for formulating strategies to counteract adverse effects and adapt to evolving conditions. This study focuses on assessing the impact of climate variability on wheat yield in Bloemfontein wheat farms through rigorous time series analysis. The research involved the application of various time series models, including SARIMA, ARIMA, Facebook Prophet, LSTM, VAR, and Multiple Linear Regression. The investigation began with forecasting temperature patterns using SARIMA and Facebook Prophet models. SARIMA outperformed Facebook Prophet in this context, as evidenced by lower RMSE and MSE metrics. Subsequently, the study delved into predicting rainfall and precipitation, employing ARIMA and LSTM models. In this case, LSTM demonstrated superior predictive capabilities. Finally, wheat production yield was analyzed using VAR and Multiple Linear Regression, with VAR yielding more accurate predictions. The findings of this study hold profound implications for policymakers, farmers, and stakeholders deeply invested in agriculture and food security. By shedding light on the repercussions of climate change on crop production through the application of time series analysis, this project aspires to contribute to developing sustainable agricultural practices, robust farming systems and proactive policies de-signed to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on global food production.