Long-term Future Research Articles

Climate dissociations: Trade associations, energy policy and climate communications in Europe

This paper focuses on how climate delay narratives populate the information environment of decision makers and regulators in EU policy making. We examine the communications of selected trade associations representing oil and gas extraction interests in Europe. Our analysis offers a novel synthesis, drawing on official data, industry and social media content, using mixed methods and informed by recent theorising on the advocacy activities of trade associations. The paper contextualises the lobbying and communication activities of oil and gas trade associations in Europe using publicly available data on lobbying (drawn from the EU transparency register) and the outputs of oil and gas trade associations (in trade, specialist and social media) to examine their preferred framings and promoted policy prescriptions for addressing climate and energy policy. We find that trade associations representing oil and gas interests in Europe spend millions of euros per annum producing and promoting policy ideas that seek to secure the long-term future of these industries. Wider climate science is rarely directly referenced or acknowledged in their public advocacy. We argue that the normalization of a new form of climate denial has emerged, based on unproven technologies and market mechanisms being pushed by powerful economic interests.

Spatiotemporal patterns in precipitation whiplash over China during 1901–2100 based on CMIP6 simulations

Abstract The increasing risk of precipitation whiplash, characterized by rapid transitions between extreme drought and wet conditions, is largely related to atmospheric circulation changes due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. This study aims to examine the changing patterns of precipitation whiplash events for future projections (2021–2100) with regard to the current climate (1981–2020), and to unveil the relations between intensity, duration, and frequency of these events for various return periods across different regions of China. Multi-source observational datasets were also used to analyze the trend of precipitation whiplash indices for the current climate and to assess the ability of the CMIP6 ensemble model for reproducing the characteristics of precipitation whiplash events. The Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves were estimated by using the nonstationary Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) model combined with Bayesian inference. The results show an increasing trend in frequency, intensity, and severity of precipitation whiplash events, particularly for the long-term future, while the duration of these transitions shows a decreasing trend. The peak occurrence months during the long-term future period exhibit notable changes in most parts of China. Specifically, the dry-to-wet whiplash events occur approximately two months earlier than in the current period, while the wet-to-dry whiplash occurs approximately two months later. The results also indicated that IDF curves shifted upward, particularly in the long-term future projections, suggesting an increased likelihood of more severe events. The findings of this study will serve as an essential reference for local authorities to develop more effective water resource management and disaster mitigation policies to tackle the impact of future climate change.

Salt-wedge estuary's response to rising sea level, reduced discharge, and Nature-Based Solution

Vulnerable estuaries face resilience challenges against climate-induced salinization. This study examines the Po di Goro estuary in the Northern Adriatic Sea using an innovative modeling approach. It assesses the effectiveness of a Nature-Based Solution in reducing the threat of salt-wedge intrusion. An intermediate-complexity numerical model is considered, leveraging its low computational cost, which is suitable for climate projections, along with robust physics encompassing the main estuarine processes. Two centennial climate experiments covering 1991–2100 are proposed following a mechanistic modeling approach to understand the compound effects of sea level rise and river discharge changes. The first experiment is a full forcing experiment. The second experiment uses the same model but removes the sea level rise as an input forcing. A third experiment, referred to as the Digital Twin Experiment, assesses the effectiveness of a location-specific Nature-Based Solution. This experiment specifically examines the impact of reducing salt levels in the water by using a halophyte plant along the estuary. The results show that, in a future climate change scenario, the salt-wedge intrusion increases. This response is due to the non-linear combination of reduced river discharge and the local sea level rise. The discharge decrease acts as the main driver in the mid-term future (i.e., 2050–2080). In the long-term future (i.e., 2080–2100), the local sea level rise becomes more relevant as the discharge trend is expected to be null. The salt-wedge intrusion in the Po di Goro is projected to increase up to 63% annually (120% in summertime). Additionally, the river mouth salinity could rise by 27% annually (69% in summertime) in the long-term future (2081–2100). The halophyte plant, Atriplex portulaciodes, proposed as Nature-Based Solution, could reduce salt-wedge intrusion in the Po di Goro by up to 16% annually (22% in summer) in the long-term future. In the short-term future, this Nature-Based Solution may be effective enough to counteract the salt increase.

Dilemmas of U.S. Decarbonization

This article investigates controversial relations between energy security and energy transition from fossil fuels to renewables that are observed in petroleum producing countries, since energy transition jeopardizes the long-term future of the oil and gas sector because it entails a gradual reduction in hydrocarbon production. This problem represents a serious challenge for all petroleum-producing countries, but this challenge is particularly serious in the United States, which recovered its former status of energy superpower due to the shale revolution. Simultaneously, it intends to become a global leader of energy transition under the presidency of Joe Biden. In general, the policy of oil companies’ decarbonization is influenced by a number of factors: government climate policy, activities of international organizations, attitudes of financial institutions, shareholders, investors, NGOs and consumers. While European oil companies feel quite a stable and consistent pressure from all these factors that force them to pursue a fairly radical decarbonization policy, the situation in the US is not that straightforward. On the one hand, government climate policy has recently sharply fluctuated, from Barak Obama to Donald Trump to Joe Biden, sending controversial messages to oil corporations. While currently decarbonization policy is a priority of Joe Biden’s administration, if Donald Trump wins the 2024 elections, the future of energy transition in the US might be challenged because he has always strongly focused on strengthening US energy security. On the other hand, the leading US oil companies through their lobbying efforts exert a significant influence on the government climate policy, seeking to ensure a long-term future of hydrocarbons and trying to find a balance between energy security and energy transition that would benefit them. They realize that it would be feasible for them to become leaders of the energy transition by adapting it to their strategic needs.

Projections of urban land exposure to drought and flood in China.

With global warming, the risk of human exposure to extreme climates increases, profoundly impacting sustainable development. Using rapidly developing China as an example, this study estimates the exposure of urban land to drought and flood based on historical and future climate and land data. The results show that the area of urban land exposed to drought in China generally decreases in the future. However, the area exposed to flood sharply increases in the mid- and long-term future, except for the near future. There is heterogeneity in the changes in urban land exposure under different levels of drought and flood. The changes in exposure areas under different future scenarios show spatial differences and an overall trend of spatial aggregation. Climate factors are the main drivers of changes in the area exposed to drought and flood. The findings can provide important references for policy-making and urban land management in response to extreme climate change.

Need for individualized counseling regarding psoriasis systemic therapy in women of childbearing age: analysis of the PsoFem study at the University Medical Center Hamburg.

For patients with moderate-to-severe psoriasis and current childbearing/pregnancy, the choice of therapy is limited. The present study compared the disease burden and treatment choices in women of childbearing age (WoCBA) with and without a current wish for pregnancy. Female patients aged 18 to 45 years, with moderate-to-severe psoriasis vulgaris, were consecutively recruited. The patients reported on sociodemographic/reproductive characteristics and quality of life impairments. The physicians assessed disease severity, comorbidities, and current treatment(s). Both patients' and dermatologists' perceptions of shared decision-making for the current systemic treatment were surveyed. Participants were 145 WoCBA with psoriasis: 73 were pregnant or reported a desire to conceive (group CB+) and 72 reported no wish to have (more) children (group CB-). Patients without childbearing wishes were older and often had previous children; no significant differences in clinical features or quality of life impairments were found. A significantly higher proportion of patients in the CB+ group were prescribed tumor necrosis factor alpha blockers, particularly certolizumab pegol. This treatment option was associated with previous children and the desire to conceive, but not with disease variables. Family planning was more often discussed and considered in the clinical decision for the CB+ group, but patient-doctor agreement for shared decision-making was fair-to-moderate. The small sample size prevented comparative analyses between patients planning a pregnancy in the short- vs long-term future. In addition, specific variables related to the decision-making process for the current therapy need to be assessed and examined in more detail in further research. For WoCBA with childbearing wishes, tumor necrosis factor alpha blockers were most frequently prescribed, in accordance with current guidelines/recommendations. Decision-making for continuing or changing systemic therapy during pregnancy must take into account medication specificities and the vulnerable stages in pregnancy, as well as the limited amount of pregnancy-compatible drugs.

Animals and Longtermism

Longtermism should not be wrongly defined as the view that we should act so that the future is as good as possible for human beings and their descendants; rather, longtermists should be concerned with what the long-term future may be like for all sentient beings. This includes nonhuman animals, as different risks of future suffering may afflict them. Indifference toward their interests could lead to the worsening of their use as resources, quantitatively and qualitatively. It could also help expand wild animal suffering, a process that may have already begun.

AI-Enhanced Strategies to Ensure New Sustainable Destination Tourism Trends Among the 27 European Union Member States

The United Nations 2030 Agenda defines the priorities and aspirations for global development based on seventeen ambitious sustainable development goals encompassing economic, environmental, and social dimensions. Tourism plays a vital role in the list of actions for the people and the planet. While the tourism industry drives economic growth, its environmental and social impact is equally high. Sustainable tourism aims to reduce the damage caused by the tourism industry, protect communities, and guarantee the industry’s long-term future. These changes require tourists’ collective and concerted effort. The question arises whether tourists are willing to be more demanding about sustainability when looking for a destination. This study uses artificial intelligence to classify a new trend in European citizens’ search for sustainable destinations and to generate intelligent recommendations. Using data from the Flash Eurobarometer 499, we use a tree-based algorithm, random forest, to obtain intelligent citizens classification systems supported by machine learning. The classification system explores the predisposition of citizens to contribute to the three pillars of sustainability when choosing a destination to visit based on gender, age, and the region of living. We found that European citizens place little emphasis on the social sustainability pillar. While they care about preserving the environment, this competes with the cultural offerings and availability of activities at the destination. Additionally, we found that the willingness to contribute to the three pillars of sustainability varies by gender, age, and European region.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of landslide susceptibility under future climate change and land use scenarios

Abstract Mountainous landslides are expected to worsen due to environmental changes, yet few studies have quantified their future risks. To address this gap, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of the eastern Hindukush region of Pakistan. A geospatial database was developed, and logistic regression was employed to evaluate baseline landslide susceptibility for 2020. Using the latest coupled model intercomparison project 6 models under three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and the cellular automata-Markov model, we projected future rainfall and land use/land cover patterns for 2040, 2070, and 2100, respectively. Our results reveal significant changes in future rainfall and land use patterns, particularly in the long-term future (2070 and 2100). Future landslide susceptibility was then predicted based on these projections. By 2100, high-risk landslide areas are expected to increase substantially under all SSP scenarios, with the largest increases observed under SSP5-8.5 (56.52%), SSP2-4.5 (53.55%), and SSP1-2.6 (22.45%). By 2070, high-risk areas will rise by 43.08% (SSP1-2.6), 40.88% (SSP2-4.5), and 12.60% (SSP5-8.5). However, by 2040, the changes in high-risk areas are minimal compared to the baseline, with increases of 9.45% (SSP1-2.6), 1.69% (SSP2-4.5), and 7.63% (SSP5-8.5). These findings provide crucial insights into the relationship between environmental changes and landslide risks and support the development of climate risk mitigation, land use planning, and disaster management strategies for mountainous regions.

Predicting Changes in Potential Habitats of an Endemic Plant Species under SSP Scenarios: A Case Study of <italic>Eranthis byunsanensis</italic>

Background and objective: Climate change significantly impacts the growth environments of organisms that have adapted to natural environments. Endemic plants, which are native to specific regions, are particularly vulnerable to these changes. The conservation of these plants is a crucial national task. Currently, there is a lack of research on the habitat characteristics and conservation measures of specific species in Korea. This indicates a need for systematic research on field surveys of habitats for valuable species, the establishment of environmental variables, and long-term changes in suitable habitat areas. Therefore, this study aimed to identify the geographical distribution characteristics and select the optimal environmental variables for Eranthis byunsanensis, an endemic plant in the Korean Peninsula.Methods: To achieve this, we utilized an ensemble model in the R package biomod2 to analyze the current potential habitat and understand its distribution characteristics. We then predicted the changes in potential habitats for the mid-future (2041-2070) and the long-term future (2071-2100) based on climate change scenarios (SSP 1-2.6 and SSP 5-8.5). Finally, we conducted a comparative analysis of the differences between the scenarios.Results: Long-term projections indicate that potential habitat area is larger under SSP1-2.6, a scenario with active climate change mitigation policies, than under SSP5-8.5. Under SSP1-2.6, habitat remained relatively stable with expansion observed in coastal Gangwon-do. In contrast, SSP5-8.5, characterized by extreme climate change, led to significant habitat decline in Jeollabuk-do. Inland Jeollabuk-do experienced rapid habitat loss with a northeastward shift, while habitat along the East Sea coast of Gangwon-do expanded.Conclusion: This study's analysis of habitat change can serve as a crucial foundation for the conservation and management of endemic plants. Furthermore, it is expected to contribute to the development of response strategies to climate change and the identification of alternative habitats for endemic plants.

Forecasting the groundwater levels in the Baltic through standardized index analysis

In regions where groundwater forms the primary source of drinking water, comprehending the prospective availability of subsurface water resources due to climate change is of paramount importance.This study evaluates the impact of climate change on groundwater levels in the Baltic States until the end of this century. It employs link between surface and subsurface standardized indices. For forecast it uses various Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) alongside different Regional Climate Models (RCM).By linking historical groundwater drought episodes with calculated surface drought indices and accumulation periods observed during defined climate Normals, we project groundwater levels for the short, medium, and long-term future. The study incorporates 13 EURO-CORDEX RCMs under three RCP scenarios.Our analysis reveals that, compared to the recent climate Normals, an overall increase in groundwater levels is expected at most study sites. However, lower groundwater levels are estimated in the near future. The projected impacts show no significant seasonal bias or spatial conformity. Although these findings are specific to the Baltic region, the methodologies described can be readily adapted for global application.

Variations in the Inferred Cosmic-Ray Spectral Index as Measured by Neutron Monitors in Antarctica

A technique has recently been developed for tracking short-term spectral variations in Galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) using data from a single neutron monitor (NM), by collecting histograms of the time delay between successive neutron counts and extracting the leader fraction L as a proxy of the spectral index. Here we analyze L from four Antarctic NMs from 2015 March to 2023 September. We have calibrated L from the South Pole NM with respect to a daily spectral index determined from published data of GCR proton fluxes during 2015–2019 from the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer (AMS-02) on board the International Space Station. Our results demonstrate a robust correlation between the leader fraction and the spectral index fit over the rigidity range 2.97–16.6 GV for AMS-02 data, with uncertainty of 0.018 in the daily spectral index as inferred from L. In addition to the 11 yr solar activity cycle, a wavelet analysis confirms a 27 day periodicity in the GCR flux and spectral index corresponding to solar rotation, especially near sunspot minimum, while the flux occasionally exhibits a strong harmonic at 13.5 days. The magnetic field component along a nominal Parker spiral (i.e., the magnetic sector structure) is a strong determinant of such spectral and flux variations, with the solar wind speed exerting an additional, nearly rigidity-independent influence on flux variations. Our investigation affirms the capability of ground-based NM stations to accurately and continuously monitor cosmic-ray spectral variations over the long-term future.

Synthesis of omega-3 mediated copper (ω-3-Cu) and copper oxide (ω-3-CuO) nanocatalyst dual application of dye decolourization and aerobic oxidation of eco-friendly sustainable approach.

In this study, ω-3-Cu and ω-3-CuO nanocatalysts were investigated for industrial environmental issues. Nowadays, green methodology is very important for addressing industrial environmental issues. In this regard, the current study focuses on ω-3-Cu and ω-3-CuO used for aerobic oxidation and dye decolourization via an eco-friendly approach. The synthesised ω-3-Cu and ω-3-CuO nanocatalysts were characterised using FT-IR, UV, XRD, TEM, GC-MS, 1H and 13C NMR. The results showed that the prepared ω-3-Cu catalyst was almost spherical with forms and sizes typically less than 20nm and the ω-3-CuO nanocatalyst 10nm. The ω-3 Cu and ω-3-CuO nanocatalysts were investigated for the conversion of pentan-2-ol into pentan-2-one, which was observed by GC-MS analysis. The ω-3-CuO nanocatalyst decolourised the Brilliant Blue dye more quickly (100% in 30min) than ω-3-Cu (85% in 60min) and ω-3 (no colour in 60min), and Rhodamine B was not decolourised because our ω-3-Cu and ω-3-CuO nanocatalysts inactivated the rhodamine B dye. The aerobic oxidation process using the ω-3-CuO nanocatalyst as the end product of pentan-2-one resulted in a retention time of 30.33. To the best of our knowledge, ω-3-Cu and ω-3-CuO nanocatalysts have not been documented for their application in decolourisation and aerobic oxidation. By highlighting the potential use for the continued advancement and innovation of ω-3-CuO nanocatalysts in the long-term future, cost-effective and eco-friendly methods for producing reusable ω-3-CuO nanocatalysts have the potential to be applied in advanced technical fields, particularly in the areas of dye decolourisation and aerobic oxidation. Finally, we successfully accomplished these processes using the ω-3-CuO nanocatalyst. The ω-3-CuO nanocatalyst evaporated more quickly than the ω-3-Cu and ω-3-CuO nanocatalyst, without any additional energy. ω-3-CuO is the most effective nanocatalyst for dye decolourization and aerobic oxidation (Dual application). ω-3-CuO is used in textile and pharmaceutical industries.

ADOPTION OF STRATEGIC DECISIONS AT THE ENTERPRISE

The process of determining the best way to achieve goals and objectives is called strategic decision making. These are long-term goals and objectives, as well as strategic decision-making tools, that help describe the company's primary goals in order to achieve short-term goals with a broad mission. In the long run, the company gains clarity and consistency in achieving its goals. Strategic decision-making is used in competitive companies to give the company a competitive advantage by changing its scale and the way the company manages its operations. The difference between strategic decision-making and other decision-making processes, such as administrative and operational decision-making, is that strategic decision-making is a long-term process that requires significant resources and is fraught with uncertainty. Administrative decisions are based on short-term goals. Unlike other decision-making processes, strategic decision-making considers the long-term future of the company. Successful business managers do more than just make money and sell products. They not only perform day-to-day sales tasks, but also look at the big picture and make decisions that will lead the company to its desired goal. This is known as strategic decision making, and it occurs when decisions are made in line with the company's goals or mission. This type of decision-making directs the choices made, aligning them with the company's goals. This requires creative thinking as managers must consider future scenarios that may or may not occur. These scenarios will determine the direction of the company's development. Business strategy is a competitive advantage. Businesses need strategies to ensure that resources are allocated in the most efficient way. There has been much research on strategies and much literature outlining the importance of strategies for successful business management. The word "strategy" is probably one of the most used words in business and everyday life [26]. According to Schendel, there are many preparation strategies in the business world for almost every potential activity, from employee management strategies to knowledge management strategies. At first glance, we have the idea that strategy is something simple that refers to the use of resources to realize pre-planned goals. But in practice, strategies differ in terms of time, and its formulation and implementation cannot be perfect. When a firm earns earnings above the average for its industry, the firm is said to have a competitive advantage over its rivals.

How does a superior quality sign guarantee the quality of lamb meat? The Label Rouge case

Owing to the social, environmental and health changes in Europe, meat quality is becoming a critical issue for the long-term future of livestock farming. Label Rouge (LR) is a quality label owned by the French government that identifies food products produced inside or outside the European Union. This label guarantees the superior quality of a product compared with a standard product. This superior quality is guaranteed throughout the production process by specifications negotiated between the Institut National de l’Origine et de la Qualité (INAO) and operators in the sector. These specifications comprise two documents: first, common production conditions that apply to all specifications in a sector, and second, a book of specifications (BoSs). These two documents, which form the qualification mechanism, are divided into several parts: product name, product description, traceability, production method, labelling and the main control points. This study aims to understand how the LR defines lamb meat quality in the 11 existing BoSs using the seven dimensions of quality of animal-source foods (nutritional, sensory, commercial, technological, safety, convenience and image). We performed a computerised qualitative transversal analysis of the commitments associated with the production method and description of the product. This analysis was enriched by five semi-structured interviews with INAO members. We show that although LR is committed to all aspects of lamb meat quality, the sensory, image and carcass commercial quality attributes are predominant. However, the image attribute of quality is so ubiquitous that it required refinement to provide a better understanding of the construction of quality in terms of its environmental, ethical and cultural components.

Spatial-temporal assessment of future population exposure to compound extreme precipitation-high temperature events across China.

Global warming has increased the probability of extreme climate events, with compound extreme events having more severe impacts on socioeconomics and the environment than individual extremes. Utilizing the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), we predicted the spatiotemporal variations of compound extreme precipitation-high temperature events in China under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) across two future periods, and analyzed the changes in exposed populations and identified influencing factors. From the result, we can see that, the CMIP6 effectively reproduces precipitation patterns but exhibits biases. The frequency of compound event rises across SSPs, especially under high radiative forcing, with a stronger long-term upward trend. Furthermore, the economically developed areas, notably China's southeastern coast and North China Plain, will be hotspots for frequent and intense compound extreme events, while other regions will see reduced exposure. Finally, in the long-term future (2070-2100), there is a noteworthy shift in population exposure to compound events, emphasizing the increasing influence of population factors over climate factors. This highlights the growing importance of interactions between population and climate in shaping exposure patterns.

Running to warmer-drier springs in the Greater Mekong Subregion as climate warms

Using the multivariate EOF analysis performed on the observation datasets, this study reveals that the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) has been toward warm-dry springs over most regions especially after the 2000s, accompanied by increased surface temperature and decreased precipitation anomalies. Such climate condition provides favourable environment for compound heat and drought events, raising questions about how the spring climate in GMS will change as climate warms. Based on a multi-model weighting scheme among CMIP6 models, we project the regional climate changes in GMS in a warmer world under the SSP5–8.5 scenario. Results show that the southern GMS including Vietnam, Laos, Thailand, and Cambodia will become warmer-drier throughout the 21st century in response to global warming. In contrast, the climate condition over the northern GMS including Myanmar and Yunnan province of Southwest China is expected to experience a transition from dry to wet springs in a warmer world, resulting in a tendency toward the warm-wet springs particularly in the long-term future. This knowledge indicates the spatial non-uniformity of regional climate under global warming and will aid in advance to plan for water management and agricultural adaptation.

High-resolution surface temperature changes for Portugal under CMIP6 future climate scenarios

Future changes in the mean, maximum and minimum temperature in continental Portugal were investigated using high-resolution future climate projections based on the latest IPCC AR6 CMIP6 climate scenarios. The results show that the mean, maximum and minimum temperatures are projected to substantially increase in all continental Portugal, particularly at the south-central inland regions. For the near-term future (2046–2065 period), SSP3-7.0 is the future climate scenario that projects higher increases, of around 1 °C, 1.5 °C and 2 °C for the daily mean, maximum and minimum temperatures, respectively. For the long-term future (2081–2100 period), the projected warming is higher, particularly under the SSP5-8.5 future climate scenario with projected warmings of 3 °C, 3.5 °C and 2.5 °C for the daily mean, maximum and minimum temperatures, respectively. Occurrences of hot days (maximum temperature above 30 °C), very hot days (maximum temperature above 40 °C) and tropical nights (minimum temperature above 20 °C) are all projected to increase up to 35–40, 12–15 and 50 more days per year, respectively, mainly in the interior areas of Portugal. Oppositely, the occurrence of frost days is projected to decrease in practically all mountainous areas in Portugal. These results show a clear tendency of a significant increase in the surface temperatures and frequency of occurrence of extreme temperature episodes in continental Portugal, which can have severe impacts on the population, environment, economy and vital human activities such as agriculture.

Projection of the Airborne CO2 Concentration by Land/Ocean Absorption Dynamics and Fossil-Fuel Reserve Depletion

The paper has been suggested by the following observations: (1) the atmospheric growth rate of carbon dioxide concentration is smaller than that ascribed to the emission of fossil-fuel combustion and (2) the fossil-fuel reserves are finite. The first observation leads to a simple dynamic model, based on the balance of CO2 land/ocean absorption and anthropogenic emissions, only limited by the depletion of fossil-fuel reserves, in a business-as-usual scenario. The second observation suggests of projecting the past CO2 emissions to the future, by constraining emissions to the limit of reserve availability. Similar projections are available in the literature, but either driven by heuristics or by complex simulation packages. The paper provides a simple and formal method only driven by historical data, their uncertainty and simple models. The method aims to provide CO2 concentration projections, which being constrained by fossil-fuel finite reserve may be in principle employed as bounds to forecasting exercises. The time–invariant dynamics of the land/ocean absorption is the simplification of a more complex set of equations describing carbon dioxide exchange between different reservoirs. Contribution of other greenhouse gases like methane and nitrous oxide has been neglected, since their emissions cannot be projected with the paper methodology. Comparison with recent profiles of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) confirms that the finite-reserve projections of the fossil fuel emissions is close to those of a moderate Shared Socioeconomic Scenario (SSP) like SSP2-4.5—a result in agreement with other authors—but also reveals the limits of the simplified model, when extending the tuned dynamics of the recent mean CO2 exchanges to long-term future. The limits derive from linearity, time invariance, and aggregation assumptions, which allow a more complex model of CO2 exchanges to be simplified and tuned on experimental data.

Identifying levers for change in UK grazing livestock systems

There is an urgent need for transformational change in global and UK agriculture. Current practices undermine the long-term future of farming and impoverish ecosystems in the UK and elsewhere. However, change is not happening at the scale and pace which is needed. Work by David Abson, drawing on ideas by Donella Meadows, explored this failure of progress and proposed a research agenda focused on transformational leverage points which influence sustainability. These points are centred on three realms of leverage: reconnecting people to nature, restructuring institutions and rethinking how knowledge is created and used in pursuit of sustainability. In this paper, these ideas are explored through a combined researcher/stakeholder workshop focused on transformational change in UK livestock systems. Workshop participants were asked to discuss and identify potential levers of change under the three realms identified by Abson. The multiplicity of levers identified and the interactions across realms emphasise the need for new kinds of knowledge creation which are highly transdisciplinary, as well as emphasising the complexity of levers which are likely to play a role in the transformation of livestock food systems in the UK and elsewhere.