Long-term Threat Research Articles

Towards post-quantum security for cyber-physical systems: Integrating PQC into industrial M2M communication1

The threat of a cryptographically relevant quantum computer contributes to an increasing interest in the field of post-quantum cryptography (PQC). Compared to existing research efforts regarding the integration of PQC into the Transport Layer Security (TLS) protocol, industrial communication protocols have so far been neglected. Since industrial cyber-physical systems (CPS) are typically deployed for decades, protection against such long-term threats is needed. In this work, we propose two novel solutions for the integration of post-quantum (PQ) primitives (digital signatures and key establishment) into the industrial protocol Open Platform Communications Unified Architecture (OPC UA): a hybrid solution combining conventional cryptography with PQC and a solution solely based on PQC. Both approaches provide mutual authentication between client and server and are realized with certificates fully compliant to the X.509 standard. We implement the two solutions and measure and evaluate their performance across three different security levels. All selected algorithms (Kyber, Dilithium, and Falcon) are candidates for standardization by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). We show that Falcon is a suitable option – especially – when using floating-point hardware provided by our ARM-based evaluation platform. Our proposed hybrid solution provides PQ security for early adopters but comes with additional performance and communication requirements. Our solution solely based on PQC shows superior performance across all evaluated security levels in terms of handshake duration compared to conventional OPC UA but comes at the cost of increased handshake sizes. In addition to our performance evaluation, we provide a proof of security in the symbolic model for our two PQC-based variants of OPC UA. For this proof, we use the cryptographic protocol verifier ProVerif and formally verify confidentiality and authentication properties of our quantum-resistant variants.

Non-coding RNA in cancer drug resistance: Underlying mechanisms and clinical applications.

Cancer is one of the most frequently diagnosed malignant diseases worldwide, posing a serious, long-term threat to patients’ health and life. Systemic chemotherapy remains the first-line therapeutic approach for recurrent or metastatic cancer patients after surgery, with the potential to effectively extend patient survival. However, the development of drug resistance seriously limits the clinical efficiency of chemotherapy and ultimately results in treatment failure and patient death. A large number of studies have shown that non-coding RNAs (ncRNAs), particularly microRNAs, long non-coding RNAs, and circular RNAs, are widely involved in the regulation of cancer drug resistance. Their dysregulation contributes to the development of cancer drug resistance by modulating the expression of specific target genes involved in cellular apoptosis, autophagy, drug efflux, epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition (EMT), and cancer stem cells (CSCs). Moreover, some ncRNAs also possess great potential as efficient, specific biomarkers in diagnosis and prognosis as well as therapeutic targets in cancer patients. In this review, we summarize the recent findings on the emerging role and underlying mechanisms of ncRNAs involved in cancer drug resistance and focus on their clinical applications as biomarkers and therapeutic targets in cancer treatment. This information will be of great benefit to early diagnosis and prognostic assessments of cancer as well as the development of ncRNA-based therapeutic strategies for cancer patients.

Improving Organizational Resilience in Businesses: A Qualitative Study on the Effect of COVID-19

Due to the long-term threat that it poses, COVID-19 has become an important problem for businesses, and therefore, for national economies. Obviously, organizations that have survived this process will be able to continue with more stability and will gain significant gains in terms of organizational resilience. The aim of this study is to investigate the strategies of businesses to meet the challenges of the COVID-19 period and the subsequent recovery process from the perspective of human resources, leaders, and corporate structure. From this point of view, this study was carried out with a case study, which is one of the qualitative research designs. During the data collection process of the study, interviews were conducted with fifteen senior managers of businesses operating in various sectors, selected by the purposive sampling technique. The data obtained from the in-depth and semistructured interviews were subjected to thematic analysis in a case study design. The findings, which are divided under the three main headings of human resources, leadership, and organization/system, point to the following results: In terms of human resources: experience, generating ideas, psychological resilience, and commitment to the organization and its culture; in terms of leadership: valuing the employees, analytical thinking, foresight, quick decision making and prudence; and in terms of organization/system: positive financial situation, quick response to the market, the effectiveness of alternative solutions, effective use of digital infrastructure and online commerce, as well as effective communication/ cooperation, contribute effectively to organizational resilience.

Effect of fire spread, flame characteristic, fire intensity on particulate matter 2.5 released from surface fuel combustion of Pinus koraiensis plantation- A laboratory simulation study.

PM2.5 is one of major pollutants emitted from forest fires. High PM2.5 concentration not only affects short-term human respiration health, but also poses a long-term threat to human cardiopulmonary functionality. Therefore, it is of great importance to quantitatively assess the PM2.5 released by forest combustion in forest fire studies. In this study we examine relationships between the PM2.5 concentration and environment and fuel characteristics laboratory experiments. In the experiments, fuel beds with controlled moisture contents and loads were first built; then 144 ignition experiments were conducted for various combinations of wind speeds using a wind tunnel device. Fire behavior characteristics and PM2.5 concentrations released from fuel combustion were measured and analyzed. The experimental results show that the relationship between fire characteristics, fire intensity and the influencing factors of wind speed, fuel moisture content, and fuel load can be explained by the fundamental theory of forest combustion. Although PM2.5 concentration rises with the increase of wind speed, the decrease of fuel moisture content, and the increase of fuel load, there appears to be a fuel load threshold for a given combination of wind speed and fuel moisture content that the increase of PM2.5 concentration decelerates quickly after the load passes the threshold value. After screening fire behavior characteristics that affect PM2.5 concentration, we found that fire line intensity and flame width are the ones with the strongest association with the concentration. With flame width as independent variable, we have built two regression models to predict PM2.5 and fire line intensity which are treated as dependent variable; the models have high accuracy with R2=0.92 for predicting PM2.5 and R2=0.97 for predicting fire line intensity. Study results can be used as reference to protect the health of forest fire fighters, and can be helpful for forest fire smoke management.

Moisture as a Driver of Long-Term Threats to Timber Heritage—Part I: Changing Heritage Climatology

Timber is widely used in the construction of buildings on a global scale, but it is sensitive to degradation. Moisture notably poses a risk to timber decay, and this is likely to change significantly during the 21st century if a high emission scenario occurs. Global HadGEM3 model output was used to map projected changes in relative humidity range, seasonality of relative humidity, time of wetness, wind-driven rain, salt transitions and potential for fungal attack (Scheffer Index). In the Congo Basin, Great Plains (USA) and Scandinavia, humidity ranges are likely to increase along with seasonal change. In many parts of the tropics, time of wetness is likely to decrease by the end of the century. Increases in days of wind-driven rain are projected for western Russia, eastern Europe, Alaska, western Canada and Southern Brazil and Paraguay. Drylands have historically had a low salt risk, but this is projected to increase. In the future, a broad extension of fungal risk along the Himalayas and into central China seems likely, driven as much by temperature as rainfall. The picture presented suggests a slightly less humid heritage climate, which will redistribute the risks to heritage. Mapping global pressures of timber decay could help policymakers and practitioners identify geographically disparate regions that face similar pressures.

The adoption of earth-observation technologies for deforestation monitoring by Indigenous people: evidence from the Amazon

ABSTRACT Deforestation monitoring is changing the nature of conservation practices in increasingly profound ways. This study illustrates how forest co-management by means of earth-observation technologies among Indigenous communities opens up new debates and perspectives on transformational actions for inclusion and equity in globalization. We analyze cases of drone adoption by the Shipibo Conibo and other Indigenous people on both sides (Peru and Brazil) of the Sierra del Divisor National Park. Our findings indicate that these technology adoptions may be inclusive and beneficial when combined with indigenous knowledge and alternative understandings of forest politics. First, we specify how counter-mapping initiatives grounded in Indigenous communities may be steered towards developing new co-participation and co-design. Second, we identify five key parameters for assessing whether co-participation and co-design during technological adoptions. Third, we assess the short- and long-term benefits, risks and threats in these technological adoption processes, drawing on indigenous perspectives.

Ecological Characterization and Bio-Mitigation Potential of Heavy Metal Contamination in Metallurgically Affected Soil

Heavy metals (HMs) remain persistent in soil for a long time and thus present a long-term threat of environmental pollution. In this study, the concentrations of some HMs (As, Cu, Zn, Pb, and Mo) in soil, potentially affected by the ex-operation of a metallurgical plant—specifically, a copper smelter in Alaverdi Town, northeastern Armenia—were measured, based on which, the HM contamination and its ecological, biological, and health effects were assessed. Concentrations of HMs (Cu, Zn, and Pb) were also measured in different plant (leaves) and invertebrate species that occur in the soil over the metallurgical factory site in order to assess the potential for the bioremoval of HMs from the soil. The results showed that the ex-operation of the metallurgical facility created such contamination in the soil that it caused a noticeable loss of invertebrate biomass in the soil and posed ecological, non-carcinogenic (for children), and carcinogenic health hazards. The investigated plant and invertebrate species were characterized by different capacities for the accumulation of HMs from the soil, based on which the plant species Fraxinus excelsior, Acer platanoides, Robinia pseudoacacia, and Aesculus hippocastanum and the invertebrate species Deroceras caucasicum, Limax flavus, and Eisenia rosea are recommended to be used for the selective removal of HMs (Cu, Zn, and Pb) from the soil.

The Role of Agency and Threat Immediacy in Interactive Digital Narrative Fear Appeals for the Prevention of Excessive Alcohol Use: Randomized Controlled Trial.

BackgroundSerious games for the training of prevention behaviors have been widely recognized as potentially valuable tools for adolescents and young adults across a variety of risk behaviors. However, the role of agency as a distinguishing factor from traditional health interventions has seldom been isolated and grounded in the persuasive health communication theory. Fear appeals have different effects on intentions to perform prevention behaviors depending on the immediacy of the consequences. Looking into how to increase self-efficacy beliefs for health behavior with distant consequences is the first step toward improving game-based interventions for adverse health outcomes.ObjectiveThis study aimed to investigate the effect of agency on self-efficacy and the intention to drink less alcohol in an interactive digital narrative fear appeal. Furthermore, the communicated immediacy of threat outcomes was evaluated as a potential moderator of the effect of agency on self-efficacy.MethodsA web-based experimental study was conducted with university students (N=178). The participants were presented with a fear appeal outlining the consequences of excessive alcohol use in a fully automated web-based interactive narrative. Participants either had perceived control over the outcome of the narrative scenario (high agency) or no control over the outcome (low agency). The threat was either framed as a short-term (high immediacy) or long-term (low immediacy) negative health outcome resulting from the execution of the risk behavior (drinking too much alcohol).ResultsA total of 123 valid cases were analyzed. Self-efficacy and intention to limit alcohol intake were not influenced by the agency manipulation. Self-efficacy was shown to be a significant predictor of behavioral intention. The immediacy of the threat did not moderate the relationship between agency and self-efficacy.ConclusionsAlthough agency manipulation was successful, we could not find evidence of an effect of agency or threat immediacy on self-efficacy. The implications for different operationalizations of different agency concepts, as well as the malleability of self-efficacy beliefs for long-term threats, are discussed. The use of repeated versus single interventions and different threat types (eg, health and social threats) should be tested empirically to establish a way forward for diversifying intervention approaches.Trial RegistrationClinicalTrials.gov NCT05321238; https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT05321238

The Myth of Sino–Thai Brotherhood: Archival Evidence on Thailand’s Relations with China in Continental Southeast Asia in the 1990s

Abstract Thailand–China relations have often been described metaphorically as fraternal, signifying the special place China has in Thai foreign policy. However, Sino–Thai brotherly friendship is an illusion. Based on archival evidence recently made available in Bangkok, this study provides a new account of Thailand’s relations with China in the 1990s, usually described by scholars as the period of partnership. This study argues that during this period, Thai foreign policy vis-a-vis China was almost exclusively driven by the Kingdom’s national interests, framed by its consistent diplomatic mentality over time. Specifically, the primacy of national interest was a modus operandi of Thailand’s China policy. Notably, Bangkok policymakers viewed China’s expanding role and influence in mainland Southeast Asia and throughout Asia as a long-term threat to the Kingdom’s security. Thus, ironically, China and Thailand might not be termed brothers but possibly in a distant fraternal relationship that some might categorize as “others.”

Resilience of U.S. coastal wetlands to accelerating sea level rise

Coastal wetlands provide a wide array of ecosystem services, valued at trillions of dollars per year globally. Although accelerating sea level rise (SLR) poses the long-term threat of inundation to coastal areas, wetlands may be sustained in two ways: by positive net surface-elevation change (SEC) from sediment and organic matter buildup and by accumulation, or horizontal migration into refugia—low-lying, undeveloped upland areas that become inundated. Using a simple model together with high-resolution elevation data, we provide, across the contiguous United States, analysis of the local effects of SLR, maximum SEC rates, and coastal development on the long-term resilience of coastal wetlands. We find that protecting current refugia is a critical factor for retaining wetlands under accelerating SLR. If refugia are conserved under an optimistic scenario (a high universal maximum SEC rate of 8 mm/yr and low greenhouse gas emissions), wetlands may increase by 25.0% (29.4%–21.5%; 50th, 5th–95th percentiles of SLR) by the end of the century. However, if refugia are developed under a more pessimistic scenario (a moderate universal maximum SEC rate of 3 mm/yr, high greenhouse gas emissions, and projections incorporating high ice-sheet contributions to SLR), wetlands may decrease by −97.0% (−82.3%–99.9%). These median changes in wetland area could result in an annual gain of ∼$222 billion compared to an annual loss of ∼$732 billion in ecosystem services in the US alone. Focusing on key management options for sustaining wetlands, we highlight areas at risk of losing wetlands and identify the benefits possible from conserving refugia or managing SEC rates.

Detection and characterization of slow-moving landslides in the 2017 Jiuzhaigou earthquake area by combining satellite SAR observations and airborne Lidar DSM

On 8th August 2017, a catastrophic Ms. 7.0 earthquake with a focal depth of 20 km struck the Jiuzhaigou County in Sichuan Province, China. It exerted a strong influence on the slope stability within the surrounding areas and triggered numerous secondary geohazards including rockfalls and other co-seismic landslides, which incurred drastic surface changes, and thus can be easily identified from cloud-free high-resolution optical imagery. Most of such landslides became stabilized shortly after the earthquake while others moving very slowly for years. In contrast, some slopes were destabilized without significant surface change into slow-moving landslides, which may pose long-term potential threats to people's life and property. Therefore, it is crucial to accurately identify these slow-moving landslides and regularly monitor their post-seismic activity. In this study, we employed the synthetic aperture radar interferometry (InSAR) techniques to detect and monitor slow-moving landslides after the earthquake in the Jiuzhaigou area, and analyzed the impacts of the earthquake on these landslides through integration of multi-source data (InSAR, Lidar, optical image, and field survey). As a result, 16 slow-moving landslides were detected by InSAR in the Jiuzhaigou area, including several historical landslides. The results of time-series InSAR analyses enabled identification of three kinds of landslide evolution modes affected by the earthquake, i.e. acceleration of deformation of pre-existing landslides, reactivation of dormant landslide, and remobilization of earthquake-triggered landslide. Each mode is supported by detailed analyses of multi-source data. The results demonstrated that satellite InSAR combined with high-resolution Lidar and optical data can provide a cost-effective approach of post-earthquake geohazards detection and monitoring.

Solid Waste Management and Challenges under War Situation Case Study lataki City- Syria

Wars have a particularly dangerous impact on solid waste management. Given the relatively long period of conflict in Syria, the collapse of environmental infrastructure and services has caused serious damage to the health of civilians. This conflict has caused some kind of environmental threat due to environmental pollution caused by debris, solid waste, and pollution from damaged industries and remnants of munitions that cause immediate and long-term threats to civilians and the environment. Solid waste treatment and disposal in Syria are not in the first place in importance, because the collection and transport of solid waste devour most of the city municipality’s budget. Because of the internal migration during the war in Syria, increases the populations in latakia city which increase solid waste amount. This leads the need to increase containers numbers in city regions and re-manage its spatial distribution by using geographic information systems (GIS). Therefore it was important to conduct this study to analyze the existing solid waste management regarding the collection system situation in Latakia city. The main purpose of this study is to improve the solid waste collection system (2018-2020) by covering all city-areas. The disposal of solid waste of the most important environmental issues of contemporary, as a result of increasing population and what has been associated with the change in the patterns and lifestyles and increased consumption, this increases the amount of waste produced, especially in cities, where the estimated amount of solid waste produced daily in the city of Latakia, is 840 tons. Thus became an urgent need to follow the techniques in the management of solid waste in all stages to public health and environmental protection. This study summarized the estimation of the amount and characteristics of solid waste and the methods used to collect and analyze the spatial distribution of the waste collection containers in all areas of the Latakia city and better planning commensurate with its population and the amount of waste produced using GIS technology.

Life Course Investments at the Maternal and Child Health Bureau.

Life Course Investments at the Maternal and Child Health Bureau.

Environmental Threats of War in Ukraine

The article shows the war in Ukraine as a huge humanitarian catastrophe, with consequences for the disruption or destruction of natural areas and the long-term threat to the environment, with implications for the health of people for generations to come. This is happening in violation of internationally valid conventions and protocols to which both Ukraine and the Russian Federation are signatories. A brief (and as yet incomplete) list of damages will be gradually amended so that accountability can be established. The international community should be involved, as the environment has no borders.

Is RED-S in athletes just another face of malnutrition?

Relative energy deficiency syndrome in sport (RED-S) can impair the function of several body systems, resulting in short and long-term threats to athletes' health and performance. Research showed that these health and performance problems are often unrecognized, and the treatment is not adequate. The retrospective study presented in this paper aims to determine the prevalence of RED-S-related symptoms in a sample of Slovenian competitive athletes from various sports. We performed retrospective research based on a database of 150 athletes, aged from 14 to 34, who had nutritional assessments as a part of their medical examination. Data were collected, refined and statistical analysis was performed. 77 women and 73 men were included; 113 were classified as young athletes (14-21 years) and 37 as elite athletes (more than 21 years). The majority (87%) of the athletes demonstrated at least one health-related symptom described by the RED-S-model; only 9% female and 18% male did not have any symptoms of RED-S. The number of different body systems with the compromised function was significantly higher (p<0.001) in female athletes (2.9±0.2) in comparison to male athletes (1.6±0.1). For other health-related symptoms, there are statistically significant differences between young and elite athletes (p=0.03), between female and male athletes (p=0.02) and between young and elite female athletes (p=0.01). When comparing groups by the number of all RED-S related symptoms, female athletes were more affected (p=0.02). According to the RED-S CAT tool, the majority of athletes (64%) were classified in the yellow group, 7% of athletes have severe health and performance problems and fulfil criteria for the red group, and only 29% were classified in the green group. A high prevalence of RED-S-related symptoms in our sample competitive athletes indicates the high prevalence of nutrition-related medical problems in young and elite athletes. Therefore, it is necessary to incorporate nutritional risk screenings as a part of regular medical examinations of athletes. In addition, appropriate treatments for competitive athletes should be readily accessible, even for young athletes. It seems that the youth athlete population is the most endangered for developing malnutrition-related health problems. At the same time, we urgently need a more specific and simple nutritional screening tool that will allow us to identify athletes at nutritional risk or athletes who have RED-S.

Tightly Secure PKE Combiner in the Quantum Random Oracle Model

The development of increasingly sophisticated quantum computers poses a long-term threat to current cryptographic infrastructure. This has spurred research into both quantum-resistant algorithms and how to safely transition real-world implementations and protocols to quantum-resistant replacements. This transition is likely to be a gradual process due to both the complexity and cost associated with transitioning. One method to ease the transition is the use of classical–quantum hybrid schemes, which provide security against both classical and quantum adversaries. We present a new combiner for creating hybrid encryption schemes directly from traditional encryption schemes. Our construction is the only existing proposal in the literature with IND-CCA-security in the classical and quantum random oracle models, respectively.

Pattern differentiation and tuning shift in human sensory cortex underlie long-term threat memory

The amygdala-prefrontal-cortex circuit has long occupied the center of the threat system,1 but new evidence has rapidly amassed to implicate threat processing outside this canonical circuit.2-4 Through nonhuman research, the sensory cortex has emerged as a critical substrate for long-term threat memory,5-9 underpinned by sensory cortical pattern separation/completion10,11 and tuning shift.12,13 In humans, research has begun to associate the human sensory cortex with long-term threat memory,14,15 but the lack of mechanistic insights obscures a direct linkage. Toward that end, we assessed human olfactory threat conditioning and long-term (9days) threat memory, combining affective appraisal, olfactory psychophysics, and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) over a linear odor-morphing continuum (five levels of binary mixtures of the conditioned stimuli/CS+ and CS- odors). Affective ratings and olfactory perceptual discrimination confirmed (explicit) affective and perceptual learning and memory via conditioning. fMRI representational similarity analysis (RSA) and voxel-based tuning analysis further revealed associative plasticity in the human olfactory (piriform) cortex, including immediate and lasting pattern differentiation between CS and neighboring non-CS and a late onset, lasting tuning shift toward the CS. The two plastic processes were especially salient and lasting in anxious individuals, among whom they were further correlated. These findings thus support an evolutionarily conserved sensory cortical system of long-term threat representation, which can underpin threat perception and memory. Importantly, hyperfunctioning of this sensory mnemonic system of threat in anxiety further implicates a hitherto underappreciated sensory mechanism of anxiety.

Resilient Health and the Healthcare System. A Few Introductory Remarks in Times of the COVID-19 Pandemic.

People across the globe are facing increasingly complex public health emergencies that are responsible for the loss of life, economic and social problems with unprecedented damage and costs. For some sociologists, our society is even “a risk society” and our time is highly violative. Emergencies of different origin: stemming from natural environmental disasters, such as floods, hurricanes, intense drought, technical accidents, social unrest and last but not least—outbreaks of infectious diseases. This decade started with one of the most significant pandemics in the history of man-kind—COVID-19. Hence, the problems of resilient health and healthcare systems have become urgent. Especially since SARS-CoV-2 may cause long-term health threats and recurrent crises. It is very important to have a common language. So far, definitions and concepts of health and healthcare resilience differ substantially and are seldom clearly defined. The aim of this paper is to describe how health and healthcare system resilience is defined to either uncover, recall, or in combination, its concept and prepare an introductory conceptual review as a preliminary step for further studies.

\u201cIn and Out of Crisis\u201d: Life Course Criminalization for Jefas in the Barrio

Scholars have documented how violence, criminalization, and other forms of control impact the life trajectories of criminalized women. Less research exists on the ways that processes of criminalization affect the health of mothers across the life course. This study examines how the legal constructions of criminalized labels such as gang affiliation, are a process of long-term violence and threat of violence and second, how short and long-term criminalization affects family health–what I refer to as life course criminalization. This qualitative study is based on photo elicitation life history testimonios with 13 gang affiliated, system-impacted Chicana/Latina mothers from South Central Los Angeles, California and connects life course theory with feminist abolitionist decolonial perspectives. It documents how crises perpetuated by multi-institutional violence and other forms of violence influence relations between legal, social, and health related experiences for system-impacted mothers and their families. Through their testimonios they show the intergenerational mechanisms that connect the body’s health, family surveillance, and criminalization processes to survival, and spiritual resistance.

Comparing optimization criteria in antibiotic allocation protocols.

Clinicians prescribing antibiotics in a hospital context follow one of several possible ‘treatment protocols’—heuristic rules designed to balance the immediate needs of patients against the long-term threat posed by the evolution of antibiotic resistance and multi-resistant bacteria. Several criteria have been proposed for assessing these protocols; unfortunately, these criteria frequently conflict with one another, each providing a different recommendation as to which treatment protocol is best. Here, we review and compare these optimization criteria. We are able to demonstrate that criteria focused primarily on slowing evolution of resistance are directly antagonistic to patient health both in the short and long term. We provide a new optimization criteria of our own, intended to more meaningfully balance the needs of the future and present. Asymptotic methods allow us to evaluate this criteria and provide insights not readily available through the numerical methods used previously in the literature. When cycling antibiotics, we find an antibiotic switching time which proves close to optimal across a wide range of modelling assumptions.