Long-term Systolic Blood Pressure Research Articles

#2251 Long-term systolic blood pressure variability as an independent risk factor for cardiovascular events in kidney transplant recipients

Abstract Background and Aims Cardiovascular (CV) events represent the main cause of death in patients undergoing renal transplantation. Several studies have described the role of blood pressure variability (BPV) in predicting all-cause mortality and fatal and non-fatal CV events in the general population and in diabetic patients. Systolic blood pressure variability (SBPV) has recently been proposed as a predictor of clinical outcomes in patients with chronic kidney disease. However, evidence is still scarce about the prognostic role of BPV in the setting of renal transplantation. The aim of the study was to evaluate the role of long-term SBPV in the development of fatal and non-fatal CV events (myocardial infarction, unstable angina or revascularization, stroke and hospitalization for heart failure) in subjects undergoing kidney transplantation. Method We performed a single-center retrospective observational analysis in a cohort of 272 kidney transplant patients (mean age 64 ± 13 years, 66% men), with a transplant duration ≥12 months and with at least 6 blood pressure measurements at defined intervals (3 months ±15 days) over an assessment period of 18 months. BPV was expressed as standard deviation of ambulatory systolic blood pressure (SBP) and patients were accordingly classified in tertiles (low <9.3 mmHg, medium 9.3-13 mmHg, high >13 mmHg). The role of SBPV was analyzed by Kaplan-Meier (logrank) and its independent effect by Cox Regression. Results Over a mean follow-up of 58.7 ± 17.2 months, 27 subjects (9.9%) developed CV events. For each increase of 2.7 mmHg in SBP standard deviation, the risk for fatal or non-fatal CV events increased almost 3-folds (P = 0.02) and patients in the highest tertile of SBP standard deviation showed a 4-fold increased risk (P = 0.01) (Fig. 1). This relationship was maintained even after incremental adjustment for time-averaged pulse pressure, age, diabetes, prior CV event, and dialysis vintage (HR 3.2, 95% CI 1.1–10.0, p 0.04) (Table 1). Conclusion Long-term BPV represents an independent risk factor for CV events in kidney transplant patients. It is therefore essential to seek for stable long-term blood pressure levels in this population in order to minimize the residual CV risk.

CO140 Usual Care and Team-Based Care Vs. Trial Protocols for Hypertension Management in Sprint-Eligible US Adults: A Simulation Study

Despite reducing cardiovascular disease (CVD) events and mortality in the Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial (SPRINT), intensive systolic blood pressure (SBP) goals are not readily used in the US. This analysis projected long-term SBP and CVD outcomes of hypertensive treatment strategies in SPRINT-eligible US adults.

Association of long-term time in target range for systolic blood pressure with cardiovascular risk in the elderly: a Chinese veteran cohort study.

Short-term blood pressure (BP) time in target range (TTR) independently predicts cardiovascular (CV) outcomes in adults. However, there are limited data regarding long-term TTR for BP among elderly participants. We aimed to determine whether future CV risk varies for those who can maintain a long-term systolic BP (SBP) target range by assessing TTR in elderly individuals with hypertension. The Chinese veteran cohort study included 943 elderly participants with hypertension aged over 75 years. The primary outcome was the first occurrence of CV events during annual visits. Time in target range was estimated over 15 years of follow-up using linear interpolation. The target range was defined as 120-140 mmHg according to guidelines. The association between SBP TTR and CV outcomes was estimated using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models. During the 15 year follow-up, the probability of CV events gradually decreased with increasing TTR for SBP. After multivariable adjustment for traditional CV risk factors and mean BP, comparing the highest vs. lowest quartiles of TTR for SBP, the hazard ratios (HRs) [95% confidence intervals (CIs)] were 0.424 (0.289-0.624) for the primary outcome. For each 1 SD increase in TTR, the risk of the primary outcome decreased by 25.4% (HR: 0.746; 95% CI: 0.666-0.834). Consistent findings were observed in sensitivity analyses. Greater long-term TTR for SBP was associated with a decreased risk of CV events in elderly individuals independent of mean BP, suggesting that SBP TTR might serve as a modifiable risk factor for future CV health in elderly patients with hypertension. This ongoing Chinese veteran cohort study adds to the understanding of the relationship between higher long-term systolic blood pressure (SBP) time in target range (TTR) and cardiovascular benefits among elderly individuals with hypertension.

Systolic blood pressure time in target range and long-term outcomes in patients with ischemic cardiomyopathy

The relationship between the degree of systolic blood pressure (SBP) control and outcomes remains unclear in patients with ischemic cardiomyopathy (ICM). Current control metrics may not take into account the potential effects of SBP fluctuations over time on patients. This study was a post-hoc analysis of the surgical treatment of ischemic heart failure trial which enrolled 2,136 participants with ICM. Our SBP target range was defined as 110 to 130 mm Hg and the time in target range (TTR) was calculated by linear interpolation. A total of 1,194 patients were included. Compared with the quartile 4 group (TTR 77.87%-100%), the adjusted hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals of all-cause mortality were 1.32 (0.98-1.78) for quartile 3 group (TTR 54.81%-77.63%), 1.40 (1.03-1.90) for quartile 2 group (TTR 32.59%-54.67%), and 1.53 (1.14-2.04) for quartile 1 group (TTR 0%-32.56%). Per 29.28% (1-SD) decrement in TTR significantly increased the risk of all-cause mortality (1.15 [1.04-1.26]). Similar results were observed in the cardiovascular (CV) mortality and the composite outcome of all-cause mortality plus CV rehospitalization, and in the subgroup analyses of either coronary artery bypass grafting or medical therapy, and different baseline SBP. In patients with ICM, the higher TTR was significantly associated with decreased risk of all-cause mortality, CV mortality and the composite outcome of all-cause mortality plus CV rehospitalization, regardless of whether the patient received coronary artery bypass grafting or medical therapy, and the level of baseline SBP. TTR may be a surrogate metric of long-term SBP control in patients with ICM.

APSH-OP-5: MEASURES OF LONG-TERM SYSTOLIC BLOOD PRESSURE VARIABILITY AND THEIR ASSOCIATIONS WITH THE RISK OF INCIDENT TYPE 2 DIABETES MELLITUS

Objective: The present study investigates the association between long-term systolic blood pressure (SBP) variability and the risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) by using different indicators of the variability including standard deviation (SD), coefficient of variation (CV), maximum and minimum difference (MMD), root mean square error (RMSE), variability independent of the mean (VIM), and average real variability (ARV). Design and method: A cohort of 3017 Japanese individuals (2446 male, 571 female) aged 36 to 65 was followed from 2007 through 2019. SD, CV, MMD, RMSE, VIM, and ARV of long term SBP changes were calculated per individual using SBP values obtained consecutively from 2003 to 2007. A multivariable Cox proportional model was applied to estimate hazard ratio (HR) and the corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI) for tertiles of the each variability measure, SD, CV, MMD, RMSE, VIM, and ARV, adjusted for age, sex, smoking status, regular exercise, family history of diabetes, sleep disorders, sodium intake, body mass index (BMI), BMI slope, fasting blood glucose (FBG), and 2007 SBP. Results: Of the variability measures examined, the highest RMSE tertile compared to the lowest was significantly associated with T2DM incidence (multivariable-adjusted HR: 1.79, 95% CI: 1.15–2.78). Also, the highest ARV tertile compared to the lowest was associated with T2DM incidence (multivariable-adjusted HR: 1.54, 95% CI: 1.00–2.35). The SD, CV, MMD and VIM were not significantly associated with T2DM incidence independent of the covariates. Conclusion: This study revealed that long-term SBP variability is possibly an independent risk factor for the future occurrence of T2DM, and such property can only be measured by either RMSE or ARV.

Life-course blood pressure trajectories and incident diabetes: A longitudinal cohort in a Chinese population.

Blood pressure levels are correlated with diabetes among middle-aged or older adults. However, longitudinal trajectories of blood pressure during young adulthood and their impact on diabetes have been insufficiently studied. The longitudinal cohort consisted of 4,625 adults who had blood pressure and body mass index (BMI) repeatedly measured five to nine times during 18-60 years of age. Distinct systolic blood pressure (SBP) trajectories were identified by a group-based trajectory model. Logistic regression analyses were used to investigate the association between trajectory patterns or quartiles of area under the curve values of SBP trajectories and incident diabetes, respectively. Four distinct trajectory groups were identified for SBP: normotensive-stable (n = 761, 16.5%), prehypertension-stable (n = 2,381, 51.5%), stage I hypertension-increasing (n = 1,231, 26.6%), and stage II hypertension-increasing (n = 251, 5.4%). Compared with subjects who remained at SBP <120 mmHg in the normotensive-stable group, individuals in the prehypertension-stable trajectory exhibited a normal SBP range (<140 mmHg), and they still had a significantly higher risk of diabetes (adjusted OR = 1.82, p = 0.029). Individuals had a greater risk of diabetes in the stage I hypertension-increasing group (adjusted OR = 2.31, p = 0.006) and the highest risk in the stage II hypertension-increasing group (adjusted OR = 3.91, p < 0.001) relative to the normotensive-stable group. Furthermore, compared with the first quartile, adjusted ORs (95% CIs) of the fourth quartile of SBP incremental and total AUC were 2.50 (1.61-3.97) and 1.82 (1.15-2.94), respectively. Long-term SBP trajectory is a significant predictor for incident diabetes, which is independent of baseline SBP and body weight, attaching importance to maintaining optimal blood pressure levels and controlling changing slopes of SBP for preventing diabetes.

Long-term variability and change trend of systolic blood pressure and risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus in middle-aged Japanese individuals: findings of the Aichi Workers' Cohort Study.

Studies have reported that short-term blood pressure (BP) variability (BPV) is associated with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) incidence, but the association with long-term BPV remains unclear. The present study investigated the associations of long-term BPV as well as the time trend of BP changes over time with the incidence of T2DM. This study followed a cohort of 3017 Japanese individuals (2446 male, 571 female) aged 36-65 years from 2007 through March 31, 2019. The root-mean-square error (RMSE) and the slope of systolic BP (SBP) change regressed on year were calculated individually using SBP values obtained from 2003 to baseline (2007). A multivariable Cox proportional hazard model was applied to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for tertiles of SBP RMSE and continuous SBP slopes adjusted for age, sex, smoking status, regular exercise, sodium intake, family history of diabetes, sleep disorder, body mass index (BMI), SBP, andfasting blood glucose (FBG) at baseline, and BMI slope from 2003 to 2007. The highest RMSE tertile compared to the lowest was associated with a significantly higher incidence of T2DM after adjusting for covariates (HR: 1.79, 95% CI: 1.15, 2.78). The slope was also significantly associated with T2DM incidence until baseline SBP and FBGwere adjusted (HR: 1.03, 95% CI: 0.99, 1.07). In conclusion, long-term SBP variability was significantly associated with an increased incidence of T2DM independent of baseline age, sex, BMI, SBP, FBG, lifestyle factors and BMI slope from 2003 until baseline.

Echocardiographic left ventricular hypertrophy and geometry in Chinese chronic hemodialysis patients: the prevalence and determinants

BackgroundTo investigate the prevalence of left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) and explore left ventricular geometry in maintenance hemodialysis (MHD) patients, and to explore the risk factors of LVH which is an important predictor of cardiovascular events.MethodsThe subjects were patients who are on MHD for more than 3 months in Peking University People's Hospital from March 2015 to February 2017. Demographic and clinical data were retrospectively collected. Left ventricular mass was measured by echocardiography. LVH is defined by Left ventricular mass index (LVMI) > 115 g/m2 for men and > 95 g/m2 in women. LVMI and relative wall thickness were used to determine left ventricular geometry. Logistic regression was used to analyze the risk factors of LVH.ResultsAltogether, 131 patients including 77 males were enrolled. The median age was 60 (47, 69) years, with a median dialysis vintage of 48 (18, 104) months. There were 80 patients with LVH, the prevalence rate was 61.1%, and 66.3% of them were moderate to severe LVH. We found that (1) most of the patients were concentric hypertrophy; (2) one-third of the patients were concentric remodeling; (3) only 4 cases with normal geometry. The pre-dialysis serum sodium level and time average pre-dialysis systolic blood pressure (SBP) were independent risk factors of LVH.ConclusionLVH is prevalent in MHD patients. Concentric hypertrophy and concentric remodeling are the most common geometric patterns. Attention should be paid to long-term pre-dialysis SBP management and pre-dialysis sodium control as they might be potentially modifiable risk factors for LVH.

The Impact of Erythropoietin on Short- and Long-Term Kidney-Related Outcomes in Neonates of Extremely Low Gestational Age. Results of a Multicenter, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Randomized Clinical Trial

To evaluate whether extremely low gestational age neonates (ELGANs) randomized to erythropoietin have better or worse kidney-related outcomes during hospitalization and at 22-26months of corrected gestational age (cGA) compared with those randomized to placebo. We performed an ancillary study to a multicenter double-blind, placebo-controlled randomized clinical trial of erythropoietin in ELGANs. The prevalence of severe (stage 2 or 3) acute kidney injury (AKI) was 18.2%. We did not find a statistically significant difference between those randomized to erythropoietin vs placebo for in-hospital primary (severe AKI) or secondary outcomes (any AKI and serum creatinine/cystatin C values at days 0, 7, 9, and 14). At 22-26months of cGA, 16% of the cohort had an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <90mL/min/1.73 m2, 35.8% had urine albumin/creatinine ratio >30mg/g, 23% had a systolic blood pressure (SBP) >95th percentile for age, and 40% had a diastolic blood pressure (DBP) >95th percentile for age. SBP >90th percentile occurred less often among recipients of erythropoietin (P<.04). This association remained even after controlling for gestational age, site, and sibship (aOR 0.6; 95% CI 0.39-0.92). We did not find statistically significant differences between treatment groups in eGFR, albumin/creatinine ratio, rates of SBP >95th percentile, or DBP >90th or >95th percentiles at the 2 year follow-up visit. ELGANs have high rates of in-hospital AKI and kidney-related problems at 22-26months of cGA. Recombinant erythropoietin may protect ELGANs against long-term elevated SBP but does not appear to protect from AKI, low eGFR, albuminuria, or elevated DBP at 22-26months of cGA.

Long-term systolic blood pressure and all-cause mortality in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction: an analysis of the TOPCAT trial

Abstract Background Lower systolic blood pressure (SBP) at admission or discharge was associated with poor outcomes in patients with heart failure and preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF). However, the optimal long-term SBP for HFpEF was less clear. Purpose To examine the association of long-term SBP and all-cause mortality among patients with HFpEF. Methods We analyzed participants from the Treatment of Preserved Cardiac Function Heart Failure with an Aldosterone Antagonist (TOPCAT) study. Participants had at least two SBP measurements of different times during the follow-up were included. Long-term SBP was defined as the average of all SBP measurements during the follow-up. We stratified participants into four groups according to long-term SBP: &amp;lt;120mmHg, ≥120mmHg and &amp;lt;130mmHg, ≥130mmHg and &amp;lt;140mmHg, ≥140mmHg. Multivariable adjusted Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for all-cause mortality associated with SBP level. To assess for nonlinearity, we fitted restricted cubic spline models of long-term SBP. Sensitivity analyses were conducted by confining participants with history of hypertension or those with left ventricular ejection fraction≥50%. Results The 3338 participants had a mean (SD) age of 68.5 (9.6) years; 51.4% were women, and 89.3% were White. The median long-term SBP was 127.3 mmHg (IQR 121–134.2, range 77–180.7). Patients in the SBP of &amp;lt;120mmHg group were older age, less often female, less often current smoker, had higher estimated glomerular filtration rate, less often had history of hypertension, and more often had chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and atrial fibrillation. After multivariable adjustment, long-term SBP of 120–130mmHg and 130–140mmHg was associated with a lower risk of mortality during a mean follow-up of 3.3 years (HR 0.65, 95% CI: 0.49–0.85, P=0.001; HR 0.66, 95% CI 0.50–0.88, P=0.004, respectively); long-term SBP of &amp;lt;120mmHg had similar risk of mortality (HR 1.03, 95% CI: 0.78–1.36, P=0.836), compared with long-term SBP of ≥140mmHg. Findings from restricted cubic spline analysis demonstrate that there was J-shaped association between long-term SBP and all-cause mortality (P=0.02). These association was essentially unchanged in sensitivity analysis. Conclusions Among patients with HFpEF, long-term SBP showed a J-shaped pattern with all-cause mortality and a range of 120–140 mmHg was significantly associated with better outcomes. Future randomized controlled trials need to evaluate optimal long-term SBP goal in patients with HFpEF. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: Foundation. Main funding source(s): China Postdoctoral Science Foundation Grant (2019M660229 and 2019TQ0380)

Long-Term Blood Pressure Variability Across the Clinical and Biomarker Spectrum of Alzheimer's Disease.

Elevated blood pressure is linked to cognitive impairment and Alzheimer's disease (AD) biomarker abnormality. However, blood pressure levels vary over time. Less is known about the role of long-term blood pressure variability in cognitive impairment and AD pathophysiology. Determine whether long-term blood pressure variability is elevated across the clinical and biomarker spectrum of AD. Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative participants (cognitively normal, mild cognitive impairment, AD [n = 1,421]) underwent baseline exam, including blood pressure measurement at 0, 6, and 12 months. A subset (n = 318) underwent baseline lumbar puncture to determine cerebrospinal fluid amyloid-β and phosphorylated tau levels. Clinical groups and biomarker-confirmed AD groups were compared on blood pressure variability over 12 months. Systolic blood pressure variability was elevated in clinically diagnosed AD dementia (VIM: F2,1195 = 6.657, p = 0.001, η2 = 0.01) compared to cognitively normal participants (p = 0.001), and in mild cognitive impairment relative to cognitively normal participants (p = 0.01). Findings were maintained in biomarker-confirmed AD (VIM: F2,850 = 5.216, p = 0.006, η2 = 0.01), such that systolic blood pressure variability was elevated in biomarker-confirmed dementia due to AD relative to cognitively normal participants (p = 0.005) and in biomarker-confirmed mild cognitive impairment due to AD compared to cognitively normal participants (p = 0.04). Long-term systolic blood pressure variability is elevated in cognitive impairment due to AD. Blood pressure variability may represent an understudied aspect of vascular dysfunction in AD with potential clinical implications.

Impact of blood pressure control on retinal microvasculature in patients with chronic kidney disease

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is an emerging disease worldwide. We investigated the relationship between blood pressure (BP) control and parafoveal retinal microvascular changes in patients with CKD. This case–control study enrolled 256 patients with CKD (stage 3–5) and 70 age‐matched healthy controls. Optical coherence tomography angiography showed lower superficial vascular plexus (SVP) vessel density, lower deep vascular plexus (DVP) vessel density, and larger SVP flow void area in the CKD group. The BP parameters at enrollment and during the year before enrollment were collected in patients with CKD. Partial correlation was used to determine the relationship between BP parameters and microvascular parameters after controlling for age, sex, diabetes mellitus, axial length, and intraocular pressure. The maximum systolic blood pressure (SBP) (p = 0.003) and within-patient standard deviation (SD) of SBP (p = 0.006) in 1 year were negatively correlated with SVP vessel density. The average SBP (p = 0.040), maximum SBP (p = 0.001), within-patient SD of SBP (p < 0.001) and proportion of high BP measurement (p = 0.011) in 1 year were positively correlated with the SVP flow void area. We concluded that long-term SBP was correlated with SVP microvascular injury in patients with CKD. Superficial retinal microvascular changes may be a potential biomarker for prior long-term BP control in these patients.

Associations between habitual tea consumption and 5-year longitudinal changes of systolic blood pressure in older Chinese

Background and objectivesTea consumption may contribute to the management of blood pressure; however, evidence from longitudinal studies is lacking. This study aimed to examine the relationship between habitual tea consumption and trajectories of systolic blood pressure in a community-based sample of Chinese adults aged 60 years or older. MethodsA prospective cohort of 3870 participants was investigated from 2014 to 2018. Trajectories of systolic blood pressure were identified using latent mixture modeling with the Proc Traj procedure. Multiple logistic regression models were fitted to explore associations between tea consumption habits and trajectories of systolic blood pressure. ResultsIn the overall sample, participants were less likely to be habitual tea drinkers if they were in the “moderate-stable” (144.4–149.9 mm Hg), “moderate-increasing” (157.2–180.0 mm Hg), and “elevated-increasing” (184.7–209.8 mm Hg) groups as compared to those in the “low-stable” group (125.3–130.0 mm Hg). The “elevated-decreasing” group (170.7 – 167.2 mmHg) consistently showed no significant difference in the likelihood of habitual tea drinking as compared to the “low-stable” group. ConclusionsThis community-based prospective study indicated that habitual tea consumption was associated with relatively favorable long-term systolic blood pressure statuses.

The correlation between blood pressure response to cold pressor test and long-term blood pressure changes

Objective: The aim of the study was to investigate the correlation between blood pressure response to cold pressor test (CPT) and follow-up blood pressure after 8 years in subjects, and to evaluate the predictive value of CPT for long-term blood pressure levels. Methods: A total of 365 individuals from eight natural villages were enrolled by stratified cluster sampling from Mei County, Shaanxi Province in 2004. Baseline characteristics of subjects were collected and CPTs were conducted. Subjects were followed up in 2009 and 2012, respectively. According to the maximal change of systolic response (SR), the area under the curve (AUC) of systolic blood pressure change (AUC-SBP), the maximal change of diastolic response (DR) and the AUC of diastolic blood pressure change (AUC-DBP) in CPT, the individuals were divided into four quartile groups by above parameters, respectively: group Ⅰ (P(25)), group Ⅱ (P(50)), group Ⅲ (P(75)) and group Ⅳ (P(100)). The correlation between blood pressure response to CPT and the follow-up blood pressure was analyzed. Results: (1) There were no significant differences in baseline blood pressure levels and prevalence of hypertension among four quartile groups no matter it was grouped on SR, DR, AUC-SBP or AUC-DBP. (2) The prevalence of hypertension in each group from lowest (P(25)) to highest (P(100)) in 2012 was 25.64%, 30.67%, 38.03%, 55.74% on SR grouping (P<0.01), and 27.5%, 29.17%, 38.46%, 57.35% on AUC-SBP grouping (P<0.05), respectively. (3) There were no significant differences in the prevalence of hypertension among four groups in 2012 (P>0.05) either on DR or on AUC-DBP grouping. (4) The random effects model analysis showed that the correlation coefficient between SR, AUC-SBP and long-term systolic blood pressure increase were 1.91 (P<0.05) and 1.44 (P<0.05), respectively, and the correlation coefficient between DR, AUC-DBP and long-term diastolic blood pressure increase were 0.82 (P<0.05) and 0.78 (P>0.05), respectively. Age, male, body mass index, and fasting blood glucose were independent risk factors for long-term blood pressure elevation, and age, body mass index and fasting blood glucose positively correlated with changes in long-term blood pressure (all P<0.05). Conclusion: Individual systolic blood pressure response to CPT can be used as a predictor of long-term hypertension.

Abstract WP94: Higher Mortality in Slow Blood Pressure Droppers: Blood Pressure Trajectory Groups of 1-Year After Acute Ischemic Stroke

Introduction: Although the effect of blood pressure in post-stroke outcome is well recognized, the long-term time course of BP following acute ischemic stroke and it’s influence to outcomes have not been well elucidated. Method: From a multicenter prospective registry of acute ischemic stroke patients, a total of 5,514 patients with measurement of systolic blood pressure (SBP) in more than 2 of 7 prespecified time points up to 1 year after symptom onset were analyzed. The patients were grouped according to longitudinal SBPs of each patient using a group-based trajectory model, and number of groups were determined by the optimal delta-Bayesian Information Criterion. Outcome measures, which were stroke recurrence, mortality and composite of each events along with myocardial infarction were prospectively collected up to 1 year after symptom onset. Results: Patients were categorized into four groups according to their SBP trajectories: low (27.0%), moderate (59.5%), persistently high (1.2%), and slowly dropping (12.4%). After adjustment for pre-determined covariates, there were higher risk of stroke recurrence in persistently high SBP group (hazard ratio (HR), 2.28 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.01-5.12]). Mortality was higher only in the slowly dropping SBP group (HR, 1.50 [95% CI, 1.09-2.05]). Composite events were higher in both persistently high (HR, 1.96 [95% CI, 1.02-3.75]) and slowing dropping (HR, 1.54 [95% CI, 1.18-2.00]) SBP groups. Conclusion: There were a group of patterns in long-term longitudinal SBP changes after acute ischemic stroke. Especially, slow BP droppers might have a distinct nature with higher mortality and would be a target for future investigations.

Short- and long-term systolic blood pressure changes have different impacts on major adverse cardiovascular events: Results from a 12.5 years follow-up study

BackgroundSystolic blood pressure increased in middle-aged person contributes significantly to the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). Meanwhile, different patterns (short- or long-term change) of SBP increase may result in differential risk and lead to differences in predictive ability. MethodsA total of 19,544 and 22,610 participants in the Fuxin Cardiovascular Cohort Study underwent measurement of SBP at 2 examinations for short- and long-term change study population. Cox proportional hazards models were used to relate future clinical outcomes with change in SBP. ResultsDuring a median follow-up period of 12.5 years, 1064 (772 stroke, 247 myocardial infarction, 528 CVD deaths) and 1316 (958 stroke, 301 myocardial infarction, 660 CVD deaths) MACE were identified during short- and long-terms SBP change, respectively. For SBP increased participants, short-term change in SBP was associated with future MACE (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.241 per 1-SD increase; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.146–1.344; P < 0.001), long-term change in SBP (HR: 1.218; 95% CI: 1.123–1.322; P < 0.001). For prehypertension participants, long-term changes conferred a strong impact than short-term. For hypertensive participants, short-term changes conferred a strong impact than long-term. ConclusionsHaving a SBP rise in short- or long-term both confer an increased risk of MACE and its subgroups. Furthermore, short- and long-term SBP increase patterns adds different additional information beyond one single baseline examination. Change in SBP may be a prognostic surrogate marker and future studies are needed to clarify the possible mechanism for predicting MACE.

P1548Long-term past, current and usual systolic blood pressure and incident cardiovascular disease: risk prediction using large-scale, routinely recorded clinical data

Abstract Background The impact of long-term exposure to elevated systolic blood pressure (SBP) on future cardiovascular disease (CVD) in “real-world” settings, and its relevance to risk prediction, are less investigated. Purpose To examine the risk of incident CVD in relation to long-term past, current, and usual SBP, and compare their predictive performance, using evidence from large-scale electronic health records (EHR). Methods Using data extracted from UK primary care linked EHR, we applied a landmark cohort study design, by including patients aged 40 (N≈64,000), 50 (N≈80,000) and 60 (N≈67,000) years (y) at study entry who had recorded SBP and with no prior CVD or previous antihypertensive or lipid-lowering prescriptions at baseline. We estimated past SBP (mean, time-weighted mean, and variability recorded up to 10 years prior to baseline) and usual SBP (correcting current values for past time-dependent SBP variability). We used Cox regression to estimate hazard ratio (HR), and applied Bayesian analysis within a machine learning framework in developing and validating models. To evaluate predictive performance of the models, we used discrimination (area under the curve [AUC]) and calibration metrics. The outcome was incident CVD (first hospitalisation for or death from coronary heart disease or stroke/transient ischaemic attack). Analyses were conducted separately for each age cohort. Results After a mean follow-up of 8 years, the numbers of patients who developed incident CVD were over 1000 (40y), 3000 (50y) and 5000 (60y). Higher past, current and usual SBP values were separately and independently associated with increased incident CVD risk. Per 20-mmHg rise in SBP, the HR (95% credible interval [CI]) for current SBP for ages 40, 50 and 60 years were 1.18 (1.08 to 1.26), 1.22 (1.18 to 1.30) and 1.22 (1.19 to 1.24); the corresponding HR were stronger in magnitude for past SBP (mean and time-weighted mean) and usual SBP (HR ranged from: 40y=1.31 to 1.41, 50y=1.39 to 1.45 and 60y=1.32 to 1.48). For each age cohort, the AUC (95% CI) for the model that included current SBP, sex, smoking, deprivation, diabetes and lipid profile in the validation sample were: 40y=0.739 (0.730 to 0.746), 50y=0.750 (0.716 to 0.810), and 60y=0.647 (0.642 to 0.658). Adding past SBP mean, time-weighted mean or variability to this model were associated with modest increases in the AUC and all models showed good calibration. Small improvements in the AUC were similarly observed when evaluating models separately for men and women within each age cohort. Conclusion Using multiple SBP recordings from patients' EHR showed stronger associations with incident CVD than a single SBP measurement, but their addition to multivariate risk prediction models had negligible effects on model performance. Acknowledgement/Funding Oxford Martin School and National Institute for Health Research Oxford Biomedical Research Centre

Association between blood pressure variability, cardiovascular disease and mortality in type 2 diabetes: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

To investigate the associations of blood pressure variability (BPV), expressed as long-term (visit-to-visit) and short-term (ambulatory blood pressure monitoring [ABPM] and home blood pressure monitoring [HBPM]) and all-cause mortality, major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs), extended MACEs, microvascular complications (MiCs) and hypertension-mediated organ damage (HMOD) in adult patients with type 2 diabetes. PubMed, Medline, Embase, Cinahl, Web of Science, ClinicalTrials.gov and grey literature databases were searched for studies including patients with type 2 diabetes, at least one variable of BPV (visit-to-visit, HBPM, ABPM) and evaluation of the incidence of at least one of the following outcomes: all-cause mortality, MACEs, extended MACEs and/or MiCs and/or HMOD. The extracted information was analyzed using random effects meta-analysis and meta-regression. Data from a total of 377 305 patients were analyzed. Systolic blood pressure (SBP) variability was associated with a significantly increased risk of all-cause mortality (HR 1.12, 95% CI 1.04-1.21), MACEs (HR 1.01, 95% CI 1.04-1.17), extended MACEs (HR 1.07, 95% CI 1.03-1.11) and MiCs (HR 1. 12, 95% CI 1.01-1.24), while diastolic blood pressure was not. Associations were mainly driven from studies on long-term SBP variability. Qualitative analysis showed that BPV was associated with the presence of HMOD expressed as carotid intima-media thickness, pulse wave velocity and left ventricular hypertrophy. Results were independent of mean blood pressure, glycaemic control and serum creatinine levels. Our results suggest that BPV might provide additional information rather than mean blood pressure on the risk of cardiovascular disease in patients with type 2 diabetes.

EFFECT OF VALSARTAN/AMLODIPINE FIXED-DOSE COMBINATION THERAPY IN REDUCING BLOOD PRESSURE VARIABILITY IN CHINESE HYPERTENSIVES

Objective: To investigate the effect of valsartan/amlodipine fixed-dose combination(Val/Aml FDC) monotherapy on short-term and long-term systolic blood pressure variability(SBPV).Design and method: 980 consecutive hypertensives from 27 medical centers in China were enrolled to receive daily Val/Aml FDC. One-year SBPVs were assessed by three levels, 24-hour, weekly and monthly BPV. 24-hour Ambulatory BP monitoring (ABPM) was performed after 1-month and 6-month treatment. Home BP monitoring (HBPM) was performed weekly and monthly for each patient. Weekly SBP readings(52 visits in total) were divided into 4 groups to calculate weekly SBPV. While monthly SBP readings(12 visits in total) were divided into 2 groups. Standard deviation(SD, including weighted SD, SD-daytime and SD-nighttime), coefficient of variation(CV) and average real variability(ARV) were calculated with validated formula. Results: In 980 consecutive hypertensives, weekly SBPV, evaluated by HBPM as SD or CV, decreased significantly and progressively from the first to the last quarter, during the one-year Val/Aml FDC treatment(p for trend <0.05). Similar trend was also observed in patients with complete treatment for 52 weeks(all p < 0.05 and p for trend <0.05). As for the monthly variation, when SBPV was calculated by the first and the last 6-month HBPM, patients’ SBPV in the last 6-month was significantly lower than the readings coming from the first 6-month in the setting of SD(5.08 ± 0.22 vs 5.78 ± 0.21mmHg, p < 0.05)and CV(4.04 ± 0.17 vs 4.62 ± 0.17%, p < 0.05). But the difference in total population didn’t remain statistical significant(p = 0.0976 and p = 0.132 for SD and CV respectively). Similarly, after 6-month Val/Aml FDC treatment, daily SBPV, assessed by 24-hour ABPM, decreased significantly in all settings(all p < 0.01), only except for night-time SD setting(p = 0.22). Conclusions: After one-year treatment, Val/Aml FDC monotherapy could significantly reduced hypertensive patients’ long-term and short-term SBPV.

The Association between Long- and Intra-Dialytic Blood Pressure Variability with All-Cause Mortality in Hemodialysis Patients

Background: Blood pressure variability (BPV) is a potential prognostic predictor for all-cause mortality. Objectives: We conducted a retrospective cohort study to compare the prognostic value of long-term BPV with intra-dialytic BPV in hemodialysis (HD) patients. Materials and Methods: We included 611 HD patients and collected their baseline blood pressure (BP) measurements for 1 year and monitored them for 40 months. Long-term BPV was assessed by pre-dialysis BP SD and pre-dialysis absolute BP residual metric. Intra-dialytic BPV was assessed by intra-dialytic BP average real variability and intra-dialytic absolute BP residual. Results: Long-term systolic BPV showed a weak correlation with mean BP, but a stronger correlation with intra-dialytic BPV. High long-term systolic blood pressure (SBP) SD and long-term SBP residual metrics were associated with high all-cause mortality (p = 0.0084 and 0.0056, respectively), while no such association was found for intra-dialytic BPV or diastolic BPV. According to receiver operating characteristic curve with mortality as dependent variable, long-term SBP residual metric showed the strongest prognostic ability (area under curve [AUC] 0.679, p = 0.0006), which was even stronger in patients with BP ≥140/90 mm Hg (AUC 0.713, p = 0.0004). After completely adjusting for confounders, long-term SBP residual metric remained significantly associated with all-cause mortality (hazard ratio 1.628 per quartile; 95% CI 1.086–2.441). Conclusions: Our results suggest long-term SBP residual metric to be a better predictor of all-cause mortality in HD patients, which could be used as an additional target for BP management.