Short- and long-term systolic blood pressure changes have different impacts on major adverse cardiovascular events: Results from a 12.5 years follow-up study

Abstract

BackgroundSystolic blood pressure increased in middle-aged person contributes significantly to the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). Meanwhile, different patterns (short- or long-term change) of SBP increase may result in differential risk and lead to differences in predictive ability. MethodsA total of 19,544 and 22,610 participants in the Fuxin Cardiovascular Cohort Study underwent measurement of SBP at 2 examinations for short- and long-term change study population. Cox proportional hazards models were used to relate future clinical outcomes with change in SBP. ResultsDuring a median follow-up period of 12.5 years, 1064 (772 stroke, 247 myocardial infarction, 528 CVD deaths) and 1316 (958 stroke, 301 myocardial infarction, 660 CVD deaths) MACE were identified during short- and long-terms SBP change, respectively. For SBP increased participants, short-term change in SBP was associated with future MACE (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.241 per 1-SD increase; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.146–1.344; P < 0.001), long-term change in SBP (HR: 1.218; 95% CI: 1.123–1.322; P < 0.001). For prehypertension participants, long-term changes conferred a strong impact than short-term. For hypertensive participants, short-term changes conferred a strong impact than long-term. ConclusionsHaving a SBP rise in short- or long-term both confer an increased risk of MACE and its subgroups. Furthermore, short- and long-term SBP increase patterns adds different additional information beyond one single baseline examination. Change in SBP may be a prognostic surrogate marker and future studies are needed to clarify the possible mechanism for predicting MACE.