Risk Of Long-term Mortality Research Articles

Long-term associations between time-varying exposure to ambient PM2.5 and mortality: an analysis of the UK Biobank.

Evidence for long-term mortality risks of PM2.5 comes mostly from large administrative studies with incomplete individual information and limited exposure definitions. Here we assess PM2.5-mortality associations in the UK Biobank cohort using detailed information on confounders and exposure. We reconstructed detailed exposure histories for 498,090 subjects by linking residential data with high-resolution PM2.5 concentrations from spatio-temporal machine learning models. We split the time-to-event data and assigned yearly exposures over a lag window of 8 years. We fitted Cox proportional hazard models with time-varying exposure controlling for contextual and individual-level factors, as well as trends. In secondary analyses, we inspected the lag structure using distributed lag models and compared results with alternative exposure sources and definitions. In fully adjusted models, an increase of 10 μg/m³ in PM2.5 was associated with hazard ratios (HRs) of 1.27 (95%CI: 1.06-1.53) for all-cause, 1.24 (1.03-1.50) for non-accidental, 2.07 (1.04-4.10) for respiratory, and 1.66 (0.86-3.19) for lung cancer mortality. We found no evidence of association with cardiovascular deaths (HR=0.88, 95%CI: 0.59-1.31). We identified strong confounding by both contextual- and individual-level lifestyle factors. The distributed lag analysis suggested differences in relevant exposure windows across mortality causes. Using more informative exposure summaries and sources resulted in higher risk estimates. We found associations of long-term PM2.5 exposure with all-cause, non-accidental, respiratory, and lung cancer mortality, but not with cardiovascular mortality. This study benefits from finely reconstructed time-varying exposures and extensive control for confounding, further supporting a plausible causal link between long-term PM2.5 and mortality.

Cost-utility of nelarabine for the first-line treatment of newly diagnosed pediatric T-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia in Canada.

The Children's Oncology Group (COG)-AALL0434 trial investigated the addition of nelarabine to the augmented Berlin-Frankfurt-Münster (aBFM) protocol in patients (1.0-30.99years) with newly diagnosed T-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia (T-ALL). Despite demonstrating superior outcomes, nelarabine is not currently funded by many health systems, in part due to a lack of cost-effectiveness data. We estimated the cost-utility of nelarabine for this indication from a Canadian public healthcare payer perspective. We developed a microsimulation model that followed hypothetical patients with newly diagnosed T-ALL from post-induction therapy to death. Three health states were modeled: relapse-free, post-relapse, and death. Efficacy was estimated using AALL0434 and retrospective data from Ontario, Canada. Costs were obtained from Canadian sources. Utility estimates and long-term mortality risks were sourced from literature. Total healthcare costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) were reported. Probabilistic and scenario analyses were conducted. Incorporating nelarabine in the aBFM protocol increased costs by $51,670 Canadian dollars per patient, but resulted in 1.97 more QALYs and an ICER of $26,184/QALY. Most of the identified cost and benefit were accrued within the AALL0434 trial period (first 11years post diagnosis) and while patients were in the relapse-free health state. Across multiple scenarios, the ICER was stable under an assumed $50,000/QALY threshold. Incorporating nelarabine into aBFM was cost-effective across different scenarios and assumptions. These results support its funding by public and private payers.

Addressing disparities in the long-term mortality risk in individuals with non-ST segment myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) by diabetes mellitus status: a nationwide cohort study.

The aim of this study was to investigate how diabetes mellitus affects longer term outcomes in individuals presenting to hospital with non-ST segment elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI). We analysed data from 456,376 adults hospitalised between January 2005 and March 2019 with NSTEMI from the UK Myocardial Ischaemia National Audit Project (MINAP) registry, linked with Office for National Statistics death reporting. We compared outcomes and quality of care by diabetes status. Individuals with diabetes were older (median age 74 vs 73 years), were more often of Asian ethnicity (13% vs 4%) and underwent revascularisation (percutaneous coronary intervention or coronary artery bypass graft surgery) (38% vs 40%) less frequently than those without diabetes. The mortality risk for those with diabetes compared with those without was significantly higher at 30 days (HR 1.19, 95% CI 1.15, 1.23), 1 year (HR 1.28, 95% CI 1.26, 1.31), 5 years (HR 1.36, 95% CI 1.34, 1.38) and 10 years (HR 1.39, 95% CI 1.36, 1.42). In individuals with diabetes, higher quality inpatient care, assessed by opportunity-based quality indicator (OBQI) score category ('poor', 'fair', 'good' or 'excellent'), was associated with lower mortality rates compared with poor care (good: HR 0.74, 95% CI 0.73, 0.76; excellent: HR 0.69, 95% CI 0.68, 0.71). In addition, compared with poor care, excellent care in the diabetes group was associated with the lowest mortality rates in the diet-treated and insulin-treated subgroups (diet-treated: HR 0.64, 95% CI 0.61, 0.68; insulin-treated: HR 0.69, CI 0.66, 0.72). Individuals with diabetes experience disparities during inpatient care following NSTEMI. They have a higher risk of long-term mortality than those without diabetes, and higher quality inpatient care may lead to better long-term survival.

Predictive value of geriatric nutritional risk index in cardiac and cerebrovascular events after endovascular aortic aneurysm repair.

To evaluate the effect of malnutrition assessed by the Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index (GNRI) on major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) in the elderly patients after endovascular aortic aneurysm repair (EVAR). This was a retrospective cohort study of elderly patients who underwent EVAR in a tertiary hospital. Malnutrition status was assessed by the GNRI. The primary outcome was MACCE. The predictive ability of the GNRI was compared with both the Revised Cardiac Risk Index (RCRI) and the modified Frailty Index (mFI) using Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. A total of 453 patients underwent EVAR November 2015 and January 2020 was retrospectively analyzed, equally divided into three (low/medium/high) groups according to GNRI values which ranked from low to high. Five (1.10%) patients were lost in follow-up after surgery, and the median length of follow-up was 28.00 (15.00-47.00) months. The high GNRI values reduced length of hospital stay following EVAR in comparison to patients in low GNRI values group (β 9.67, 95% CI 4.01-23.32, p = 0.0113; adjusted β -1.96, 95% CI -3.88, -0.05, p = 0.0454). GNRI status was associated with a significantly increased risk of long-term mortality after EVAR (Medium GNRI, unadjusted HR 0.40, 95%CI 0.23-0.70, p = 0.0014; adjusted HR 0.47, 95%CI 0.26-0.84, p = 0.0107; high GNRI, 0.27 95%CI 0.14-0.55; p = 0.0003; adjusted HR 0.32 95%CI 0.15-0.68, p = 0.0029). Both medium and high GNRI values were linked to significantly reduced risks of MACCE compared to low GNRI score patients (Medium GNRI, unadjusted HR 0.34, 95%CI 0.13-0.88, p = 0.00265; adjusted HR 0.37, 95%CI 0.14-0.96, p = 0.0408; High GNRI, 0.26 95%CI 0.09-0.78; p = 0.0168; adjusted HR 0.21 95%CI 0.06-0.73, p = 0.0029). Compared with the RCRI and mFI, the GNRI had better discrimination in predicting long-term MACCE. An area under the curve (AUC) for GNRI mFI, and RCRI is 0.707, 0.614 and 0.588, respectively. (Z statistic, GNRI vs. mFI, p = 0.0475; GNRI vs. RCRI, p = 0.0017). Malnutrition assessed by the GNRI may serve as a useful predictor of long-term MACCE in elderly patients after EVAR, with preferable discrimination abilities compared with both RCRI and mFI.

A-017 Clinical Performance Evaluation of the Atellica IM High-Sensitivity Troponin I Assay to Aid in Risk Stratification for All-Cause Mortality and Major Adverse Cardiac Events

Abstract Background Cardiac troponin I (cTnI) is the only troponin isoform present in the myocardium, where it binds to actin and inhibits actin and myosin interaction. Upon myocardial injury, cTnI is released into circulation and serial measurements can be used to aid in the diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction (AMI). In addition, in patients presenting with signs and symptoms of acute coronary syndrome (ACS), elevated cTnI levels provide useful prognostic information relative to short and long-term risk of all-cause mortality (ACM) and major adverse cardiac events (MACE). The objective of this study was to evaluate the clinical performance of the Atellica® IM TNIH assay to aid in risk stratification for ACM/MACE*. Methods Patients from 29 emergency departments (ED) across the United States presenting with signs and symptoms suggestive of ACS were followed for 30-, 90-, and 365-day progression to ACM/MACE (consisting of myocardial infarction, urgent revascularization, cardiac death, or heart failure hospitalization). At each timepoint, the risk (cumulative incidence) and hazard ratios were calculated for populations with baseline cTnI levels ≤ or > the 99th percentile value. Kaplan-Meier curves were generated to display the absolute risk (cumulative incidence) of ACM/MACE outcomes. Analyses were performed for all enrolled patients (entire population) and separately for the entire population excluding those with an adjudicated AMI at presentation. Analyses were performed separately for both serum and plasma (lithium heparin) sample types. Results For the Entire Population cohort, the binary baseline TNIH result (TNIH > overall 99th percentile or ≤ overall 99th percentile) was significantly associated with 30-, 90-, and 365-day cumulative ACM/MACE (p-value<0.0125) for both plasma and serum samples. For plasma samples, risk difference increased from 6.27% at day 30 to 19.62% at day 365. For serum samples, risk difference increased from 6.24% at day 30 to 18.71% at day 365. Cox proportional hazard regression analysis compared the TNIH 99th percentile groups in their hazard of experiencing an ACM/MACE event in the 30-, 90-, and 365-days post ED presentation. For plasma samples, the hazard of ACM/MACE for subjects with cTnI values above the TNIH 99th percentile was relatively constant at each follow-up interval as more than double the rate of subjects below the 99th percentile; hazard ratios ranged between 2.81 (p-value<0.0001) and 3.49-fold (p-value<0.0001) for the three follow up visits. For serum samples, the hazard ratios were between 2.69 (p-value<0.0001) and 3.28-fold (p-value<0.0001) for the three follow up visits. Similar results were obtained for the Entire Population Excluding Subjects with Adjudicated AMI During Initial Presentation cohort. Conclusions The Atellica IM TNIH assay can be used in the detection of myocardial injury and can aid in risk stratification for 30-, 90-, and 365-day all-cause mortality (ACM) and major adverse cardiac events (MACE) in patients presenting with signs and symptoms suggestive of acute coronary syndrome (ACS). *This prognostic claim is not available in the United States.

Prognostic significance of plasma cytomegalovirus (CMV) DNA load in immunocompetent patients with CMV pneumonia: A retrospective cohort study.

Cytomegalovirus (CMV) pneumonia, often presented as pneumonitis, is characterized by respiratory failure and large interstitial infiltrates visible on chest radiographs. This retrospective cohort study investigates the predictive significance of plasma CMV DNA load on the short- and long-term mortality among immunocompetent patients diagnosed with CMV pneumonia. The study included 61 immunocompetent patients suspected of having CMV pneumonia, treated with intravenous ganciclovir after positive CMV DNA results from bronchoalveolar lavage or plasma. Our multivariate Cox regression analysis identified several independent predictors of mortality. Having idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) significantly increased the risk of in-hospital mortality (HR: 7.27, 95% CI: 1.62-32.52, p = 0.009), as did shorter durations of antiviral therapy (HR: 0.90, 95% CI: 0.84-0.97, p = 0.005) and higher CMV DNA levels (>3870 IU/mL; HR: 9.63, 95% CI: 2.32-39.98, p = 0.002). High CMV DNA levels (>5154 IU/mL) were also predictors of 30-day mortality (HR: 9.39, 95% CI: 2.20-40.01, p = 0.002). For 1-year mortality, the presence of IPF (HR: 2.96, 95% CI: 1.08-8.06, p = 0.034), hypersensitivity pneumonia (HP) (HR: 4.30, 95% CI: 1.57-11.78, p = 0.005), shorter duration of total antiviral therapy (HR: 0.95, 95% CI: 0.93-0.99, p = 0.010), and higher CMV DNA levels (>327 IU/mL) (HR: 3.36, 95% CI: 1.33-8.47, p = 0.010) were identified as independent determinants. The study reveals that IPF increases short and long-term mortality risks, while HP increases long-term mortality. Extended antiviral treatment duration results in a 10% reduction in in-hospital mortality for each additional day of treatment. Furthermore, elevated viral loads are associated with higher mortality rates, highlighting the necessity for careful monitoring.

The U-shaped association between hemoglobin concentrations and all-cause death risk in patients with community-acquired pneumonia.

The prevalence of anemia in patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) has been well described. However, few studies have explored its association with short-term and long-term mortality risk in CAP patients. We aimed to investigate the associations between hemoglobin concentrations at baseline and 14-day and 1-year mortality risk in a CAP population with a large sample size. Our data originated from the Dryad database, including a dataset from the study "Incidence rate of community-acquired pneumonia in adults: a population-based prospective active surveillance study in 3 cities in South America." A total of 1463 study samples with follow-up data from the dataset were enrolled for our analysis. During the follow-up period of 3 years, the 14-day risk and 1-year mortality risk were 206 (14.08%) and 401 (27.41%), respectively, among these CAP patients. Curve analysis indicated a strong U-shaped relationship between blood hemoglobin concentrations and 14-day mortality (r = -0.191, P < .001) and 1-year mortality (r = -0.220, P < .001). The blood hemoglobin level with the lowest point of mortality risk was 14.5g/dL, suggesting that an increased hemoglobin concentration contributed to reduced 14-day and 1-year mortality risk in CAP patients when hemoglobin does not exceed 14.5g/dL even if it is within the normal clinical range. In addition, we also observed significant associations of hemoglobin with 14-day mortality risk (odds ratio [OR] = 0.817; 95% CI, 0.742-0.899 P < .001) and 1-year mortality risk (OR = 0.834; 95% CI, 0.773-0.900; P < .001), but only in participants without risk factors for health care-associated pneumonia (HCAP) rather than in participants with risk factors for HCAP. The greatest discovery is that our findings indicated a significant U-shaped relationship between hemoglobin levels and 14-day and 1-year mortality risk in CAP patients. However, a significant relationship was only discovered in subjects without risk factors for HCAP. More evidence is needed to support this finding.

Mitral-specific cardiac damage score (m-CDS) predicts risk of death in functional mitral regurgitation: a study from the National Echo Database of Australia

AimsWe set out to explore associations between a ‘mitral-specific’ cardiac damage score (m-CDS) and survival outcomes in mitral regurgitation (MR) and compare the performance of the m-CDS and an ‘aortic-specific’...

HIV deathrate prediction by Gaidai multivariate risks assessment method.

HIV is a contagious disease with reportedly high transmissibility, being spread worldwide, with certain mortality, allegedly presenting a burden to public health worldwide. The main objective of this study was to determine excessive HIV death risks at any time within any region or country of interest. Current study presents a novel multivariate public health system bio-risk assessment approach that is particularly applicable to environmental multi-regional, biological, and public health systems, being observed over a representative period of time, yielding reliable long-term HIV deathrate assessment. Hence, the development of a new bio-statistical approach, that is, population-based, multicenter, and medical survey-based. The expansion of extreme value statistics from the univariate to the bivariate situation meets with numerous challenges. Firstly, the univariate extreme value types theorem cannot be directly extended to the bivariate (2D) case, - not to mention challenges with system dimensionality higher than 2D. Existing bio-statistical methods that process spatiotemporal clinical observations of multinational bio-processes often do not have the advantage of efficiently dealing with high regional dimensionalities and complex nonlinear inter-correlations between different national raw datasets. Hence, this study advocates the direct application of the novel bio-statistical Gaidai method to a raw unfiltered clinical data set. This investigation described the successful application of a novel bio-risk assessment approach, yielding reliable long-term HIV mortality risk assessments. The suggested risk assessment methodology may be utilized in various public bio and public health clinical applications based on available raw patient survey datasets.

Late Survival Benefits of Concomitant Surgical Ablation for Atrial Fibrillation During Cardiac Surgery; A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Long-term survival benefits following surgical ablation for atrial fibrillation (AF) during cardiac surgery were not confirmed in previous randomized controlled trials or meta-analyses. This study aimed to investigate the long-term efficacy of surgical ablation in patients with AF. MEDLINE, EMBASE, and CENTRAL were searched to identify studies comparing concomitant surgical AF ablation with no surgical ablation during cardiac surgery. The primary outcome was long-term all-cause mortality. Secondary outcomes were stroke, heart failure rehospitalization, major bleeding, freedom from atrial fibrillation, and permanent pacemaker implantation during follow-up. To minimize confounding, only adjusted outcomes were used from observational studies. A total of 38 studies met the inclusion criteria. Of those, nine RCTs and 15 observational studies with 41,678 patients (surgical ablation, n = 19,125; no surgical ablation, n = 22,553) were analyzed for all-cause mortality, with a weighted median follow-up of 62.0 months. Surgical ablation was associated with decreased risks of long-term mortality (hazard ratio (HR): 0.78; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.71 to 0.84), stroke (HR: 0.60; 95% CI: 0.48 to 0.76), heart failure rehospitalization (HR: 0.92; 95% CI: 0.87 to 0.96), and more freedom from AF during follow-up (relative risk: 1.93; 95% CI: 1.50 to 2.49), whereas surgical ablation was associated with a higher risk of permanent pacemaker implantation during follow-up (HR: 1.35; 95% CI: 1.03 to 1.77). There was no significant difference in major bleeding during follow-up between the two groups. In patients with AF undergoing cardiac surgery, surgical ablation was associated with decreased risks of long-term mortality, stroke, and heart failure rehospitalization than patients with untreated AF. Given that the survival benefits were predominantly observed in observational studies, further randomized trials are necessary to confirm these findings.

The Impact of Anemia on Long-Term Mortality in Hospitalized Patients with Exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease.

Anemia is a risk factor for mortality within the general population and is notably prevalent among individuals with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Our objective was to investigate the impact of anemia on the long-term mortality risk of hospitalized COPD patients. Additionally, we aimed to identify the cause of mortality to assess whether it was different in relation to the presence of anemia. This was an observational retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data of consecutive patients admitted because of COPD exacerbation. Clinical characteristics, the presence of anemia, months of survival and cause of death if occurred, were recorded. Patients were categorized into two groups: anemic (for women hemoglobin level < 12 g/dL and for men hemoglobin level < 13 g/dL) and non-anemic. Survival analysis was conducted using Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional hazard regression analysis. A total of 125 patients (20% women) were included in the study. Among them, 31 (25%) were identified as anemic, By the conclusion of the study, 59 patients (47%) had died: 27 out of 31 anemic patients (87%) and 32 out of 94 non-anemic patients (34%) (p<0.001). Anemia was a robust predictor of mortality one year after admission (adjusted hazard ratio HR; 5.20 [1.86-14.55]); three years after admission (HR 4.30 [2.03-9.10]), and at the study's termination (with a follow-up period ranging from a minimum of 38 months to a maximum of 56 months) (HR; 3.80 [1.96-7.38]). Mortality in the group of patients with anemia was of 27 individuals (87%) and 32 (34%) in patients without anemia (p<0.001). The causes of mortality in patients with or without anemia were similar. The detection of anemia upon admission for COPD exacerbation serves as a robust predictor of mortality in the subsequent years.

Long-term outcome of 2-year survivors after allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation for acute leukemia.

Information on late complications in patients with acute leukemia who have undergone allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) is limited. We performed a left-truncated analysis of long-term survival in patients with acute leukemia who were alive and disease-free 2 years after HCT. We included 2701 patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) and 9027 patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) who underwent HCT between 2005 and 2012. The 10-year overall survival (OS) rate was 81.3% for ALL and 76.2% for AML, with the main causes of late mortality being relapse (ALL-33.9%, AML-44.9%) and chronic graft-versus-host disease (ALL-29%, AML-18%). At 10 years, HCT-related mortality was 16.8% and 20.4%, respectively. Older age and unrelated donor transplantation were associated with a worse prognosis for both types of leukemia. In addition, transplantation in the second or third complete remission and peripheral blood HSC for ALL are associated with worse outcomes. Similarly, adverse cytogenetics, female donor to male patient combination, and reduced intensity conditioning in AML contribute to poor prognosis. We conclude that 2-year survival in remission after HCT for acute leukemia is encouraging, with OS of nearly 80% at 10 years. However, the long-term mortality risk of HCT survivors remains significantly higher than that of the age-matched general population. These findings underscore the importance of tailoring transplantation strategies to improve long-term outcomes in patients with acute leukemia undergoing HCT.

Effects of the Non-Steroidal MRA Finerenone with and without Concomitant SGLT2 Inhibitor Use in Heart Failure.

Patients with heart failure (HF) with mildly reduced or preserved ejection fraction face heightened long-term risks of morbidity and mortality. The sodium glucose-co-transporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) and the non-steroidal mineralocorticoid receptor antagonist (MRA) finerenone have both been shown to reduce the risk of cardiovascular events in this population, but the effects of their combined use are not known. FINEARTS-HF was a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of finerenone in patients with HF and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) ≥40%. Baseline SGLT2i use was a prespecified subgroup. The primary outcome was a composite of total (first and recurrent) worsening HF events and cardiovascular death. We first assessed for evidence of treatment heterogeneity based on baseline SGLT2i use. We further examined SGLT2i uptake during the trial and evaluated the treatment effects of finerenone accounting for baseline and during trial use of SGLT2i in time-varying analyses. Among 6,001 participants, 817 (13.6%) were treated with an SGLT2i at baseline. During 2.6-years median follow-up, treatment with finerenone similarly reduced the risk of the primary outcome in participants treated with an SGLT2i (rate ratio 0.83; 95% confidence interval 0.60 to 1.16) and without an SGLT2i at baseline (rate ratio 0.85; 95% confidence interval 0.74 to 0.98); Pinteraction=0.76. In follow-up, 980 participants initiated SGLT2i, which was less frequent in the finerenone arm compared with placebo (17.7% vs. 20.1%; hazard ratio 0.86; confidence interval 0.76 to 0.97). Time-updated analyses accounting for baseline and subsequent use of SGLT2i did not meaningfully alter the treatment effects of finerenone on the primary endpoint. The treatment benefits of the non-steroidal MRA finerenone were observed irrespective of concomitant use of an SGLT2i. These data suggest that the combined use of SGLT2i and a non-steroidal MRA may provide additive protection against cardiovascular events in patients with HF with mildly reduced or preserved ejection fraction.

Clinical impact of visceral adiposity on long-term mortality in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting

Introduction and objectivesAlthough visceral adiposity increases cardiovascular risk in the general population, the obesity paradox has been reported in critically ill patients. However, evidence for its prognostic role in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) is limited. This study evaluated the prognostic implications of visceral adiposity in patients who underwent CABG using computed tomography-based measurement of visceral fat. MethodsA total of 2810 patients who underwent CABG from 2007 to 2017 were analyzed. The study population was classified into 3 groups according to visceral fat area index (VFAI) tertiles. VFAI was calculated as visceral fat area (cm2)/height2 (m2) at the L3 level. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality during follow-up. ResultsPatients in the low VFAI group (lowest tertile) were younger and had a lower body mass index and less subcutaneous fat than those in the high VFAI group (highest tertile). During a median 8.7-year follow-up, VFAI was significantly associated with the risk of mortality in restricted cubic spline curve analysis (HR, 0.94 per 10 increases; 95%CI, 0.91-0.97; P<.001). Patients in the low VFAI group had a higher incidence of long-term mortality than those in the intermediate and high VFAI groups (T1 36.1%, T2 27.2%, and T3 29.1%; T1 vs T2; adjusted HR, 1.36; 95%CI, 1.15-1.61; P<.001; T1 vs T; adjusted HR, 1.37; 95%CI, 1.16-1.62; P<.001). Similar results were obtained after inverse probability treatment-weighting analysis. ConclusionsLow visceral adiposity was associated with an increased risk of long-term mortality in patients who underwent CABG.

Comparing NEWS2, TRISS, RTS, SI, GAP, and MGAP in predicting early and total mortality rates in trauma patients based on emergency department data set: A diagnostic study

IntroductionIn the global context, trauma remains a significant cause of mortality, particularly among individuals under 50 years old with mortality and morbidity. Timely assessment, efficient triage, and appropriate post-trauma care can help mitigate long-term mortality and morbidity risks. While the trauma and injury severity score (TRISS) is considered accurate, its complexity limits clinical utility, prompting the development of new tools like the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) and others. Thus, this study aims to evaluate the predictive abilities of NEWS2, RTS (revised trauma score), TRISS, SI (shock index), GAP (Glasgow coma score, age, and systolic blood pressure), and MGAP (mechanism of injury, Glasgow coma score, age, and systolic blood pressure) scoring systems in trauma patient care to enhance outcomes and reduce mortality and morbidity rates. MethodsThis retrospective diagnostic study included a total of 6894 trauma patients with data collected from the emergency department. Patient information, including vital signs and demographic data, was recorded on datasheets completed by ED staff. Ethical guidelines were followed, and patient consent forms were not required due to the study's retrospective nature. Scoring systems such as NEWS2, RTS, TRISS, SI, GAP, and MGAP were calculated and interpreted based on specific formulas and scoring charts. ResultsOf 6894 patients, 2.83% died during hospitalization, and 0.72% within the first 24 hours. Factors associated with mortality included age, cause of injury, duration of hospitalization, and various physiological parameters. The majority of scoring systems are reliable in predicting mortality, except for the sock index (SI), with NEWS2 demonstrating the highest sensitivity and accuracy for predicting mortality rates, while TRISS and RTS were the most specific. GAP was also the most competent predictor of overall mortality. ConclusionMost scoring systems effectively predict mortality, with TRISS and NEWS2 demonstrating high sensitivity and specificity together in forecasting in-hospital mortality. NEWS2 stands out as a precise tool for mortality prediction in the emergency department due to its simplicity and quick application. However, further research is needed to identify the most effective predictive system in trauma patients.

Early initiation of oral beta-blocker improves long-term survival in patients with acute myocardial infarction who underwent primary percutaneous coronary intervention

BackgroundThe optimal timing for the initiation of oral beta-blockers after acute myocardial infarction (MI) remains unclear within the context of current primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) practice.MethodsThis retrospective cohort study included 412 consecutive patients admitted with a diagnosis of acute MI between January 2007 and August 2016 who underwent successful primary PCI and were given oral carvedilol during hospitalization. Early and late carvedilol groups were based on initiation within the first 24 h or after. Propensity score matching (1:1) incorporating 21 baseline characteristics yielded 47 matched pairs. Timing of carvedilol initiation was evaluated in relation to patient outcomes including time to all-cause mortality, using Kaplan-Meier estimates on the matched cohort and additional confirmation in multivariable regression analysis among the entire cohort.ResultsMedian follow-up period was 828 days. All-cause death occurred in 14 patients (4.7%) and 18 patients (15.8%) of the early and late carvedilol groups. After propensity score matching, initiation of oral carvedilol within the first 24 h was associated with lower all-cause mortality (6.4% vs. 25.5%, hazard ratio 0.28, 95% confidence interval 0.06 − 0.89, p = 0.036), as well as lower in-hospital mortality (0 vs. 14.9%, p = 0.018).ConclusionsThese results provide evidence that initiation of oral carvedilol within the first 24 h reduces the risk of long-term mortality, in acute MI patients who underwent primary PCI, supporting current guidelines recommendation.

Long-term risk of mortality and loss to follow-up in children and adolescents on antiretroviral therapy in Asia.

We described mortality and loss to follow-up (LTFU) in children and adolescents who were under care for more than 5 years following initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART). Patients were followed from 5 years after ART until the earlier of their 25th birthday, last visit, death, or LTFU. We used Cox regression to assess predictors of mortality and competing risk regression to assess factors associated with LTFU. In total, 4488 children and adolescents initiating ART between 1997 and 2016 were included in the analysis, with a median follow-up time of 5.2 years. Of these, 107 (2.2%) died and 271 (6.0%) were LTFU. Mortality rate was 4.35 and LTFU rate 11.01 per 1000 person-years. Increased mortality was associated with AIDS diagnosis (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.71; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.24-2.37), current CD4 count <350 cells/mm3 compared with ≥500 (highest aHR 13.85; 95% CI 6.91-27.76 for CD4 <200), viral load ≥10 000 copies/mL compared with <400 (aHR 3.28; 95% CI 1.90-5.63), and exposure to more than one ART regimen (aHR 1.51; 95% CI 1.14-2.00). Factors associated with LTFU were male sex (adjusted subdistribution hazard ratio [asHR] 1.29; 95% CI 1.04-1.59), current viral load >1000 copies/mL compared with <400 (highest asHR 2.36; 95% CI 1.19-4.70 for viral load 1000-9999), and ART start after year 2005 compared with ≤2005 (highest asHR 5.96; 95% CI 1.98-17.91 for 2010-2016). For children and adolescents surviving 5 years on ART, both current CD4 and viral load remained strong indicators that help to keep track of their treatment outcomes. More effort should be made to monitor patients who switch treatments.

The neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio predicts all-cause and cardiovascular mortality among United States adults with COPD: results from NHANES 1999-2018.

Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) is considered a biomarker of systemic inflammation and immune activation. However, its relationship with the risk of mortality in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) remains unclear. This study aimed to investigate the association between NLR and the risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in patients with COPD. Data were collected from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) from January 1999 to December 2018. The calculation method of NLR involves dividing the neutrophil count by the lymphocyte count in the total blood cell count. The optimal NLR threshold associated with survival outcomes was determined using the maximally selected rank statistics method (MSRSM). The relationship between NLR and the risk of all-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality in COPD was investigated using a weighted multivariable Cox regression model. Additionally, restricted cubic spline (RCS) was employed to discuss the potential relationship between NLR patients in different groups and the risk of mortality. In this study, 716 adults with COPD were included using the maximally selected rank statistics method, among whom 208 had higher NLR (≥2.56) and 508 had lower NLR (<2.56). During a median follow-up of 111.5 months, 162 COPD patients died from all causes, and 49 patients died from cardiovascular diseases. After adjusting for demographic, socioeconomic status, and lifestyle factors, the risk of all-cause mortality (HR = 2.07, 95%CI: 1.46-2.94) and cardiovascular mortality (HR = 3.03, 95%CI: 1.63-5.65) in patients with higher NLR was increased by 2-3 times compared to those with lower NLR. Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed significantly lower survival rates in patients with higher NLR for all-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality (p < 0.05). Restricted cubic spline analysis showed a linear correlation between NLR and the risk of all-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality. NLR has a high value in independently predicting long-term all-cause and cardiovascular mortality risks in community-dwelling COPD patients. Therefore, NLR can serve as a cost-effective and widely available indicator for assessing the prognosis of COPD patients.

Baseline and Longitudinal MRI Markers Associated With 16-Year Mortality in Patients With Cerebral Small Vessel Disease.

Information on whether small vessel disease (SVD) reduces life expectancy is limited. Moreover, the excess mortality risk attributed specifically to SVD compared with controls from the general population has not been evaluated. This study aimed to investigate the baseline and progression of MRI markers of SVD associated with mortality in a 16-year follow-up cohort study and to determine the excess long-term mortality risk of patients with SVD. Participants with SVD from the Radboud University Nijmegen Diffusion Tensor and Magnetic Resonance Imaging Cohort (RUN DMC) study (with MRI assessments in 2006, 2011, 2015, and 2020) were followed until their death or December 1, 2021. Adjusted Cox regression analyses and linear mixed-effect regression models were used to investigate the association between MRI markers of SVD and mortality. The excess mortality risk of SVD was calculated by comparing mortality data of the RUN DMC study with the general population matched by sex, age, and calendar year. 200 of 503 (39.9%) participants died during a follow-up period of 15.9 years. Cause of death was available for 182 (91%) participants. Baseline white matter hyperintensity volume (HR 1.3 per 1-SD increase [95% CI 1.1-1.5], p = 0.010), presence of lacunes (1.5 [95% CI 1.1-2.0], p = 0.008), mean diffusivity (HR 1.1 per 1-SD increase [95% CI 1.1-1.2], p = 0.001), and total brain volume (HR 1.5 per 1-SD decrease [95% CI 1.3-1.9], p < 0.001) were associated with all-cause mortality after adjusting for age, sex, and vascular risk factors. Total brain volume decrease over time was associated with all-cause mortality after adjusting for age, sex, and vascular risk factors (HR 1.3 per 1-SD decrease [95% CI 1.1-1.7], p = 0.035), and gray matter volume decrease remained significant after additionally adjusting for its baseline volume (1.3 per 1-SD decrease [1.1-1.6], p = 0.019). Participants with a Fazekas score of 3, presence of lacunes, or lower microstructural integrity had an excess long-term mortality risk (21.8, 15.7, 10.1 per 1,000 person-years, respectively) compared with the general population. Excess long-term mortality risk only exists in patients with severe SVD (Fazekas score of 3, presence of lacunes, or lower microstructural integrity). This could help in assisting clinicians to predict the clinical outcomes of patients with SVD by severity.

Galectin-3 Predicts Long-Term Risk of Cerebral Disability and Mortality in Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest Survivors.

Out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) is associated with high mortality and cerebral disability in survivors. Current models of risk prediction and survival are mainly based on resuscitation duration. We examined the prognostic value of circulating biomarkers in predicting mortality and severe cerebral disability for OHCA survivors, alongside traditional clinical risk indicators. Biomarkers including BNP, troponin I, and galectin-3 were measured at hospital admission in resuscitated OHCA patients. Prognostic significance for mortality and cerebral disability involving circulating biomarkers, resuscitation duration, demographics, and laboratory and clinical characteristics was examined via univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression models. The incremental prognostic value of the index covariates was examined through model diagnostics, focusing on the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Harrell's concordance statistic (c-statistic). In a combinatorial analysis of 144 OHCA survivors (median follow-up 5.7 years (IQR 2.9-6.6)), BNP, galectin-3, arterial pH, and resuscitation time were significant predictors of all-cause death and severe cerebral disability, whereas troponin I levels were not. Multivariate regression, adjusting for BNP, arterial pH, and resuscitation time, identified galectin-3 as an independent predictor of long-term mortality. Multiple linear regression models also confirmed galectin-3 as the strongest predictor of cerebral disability. The incorporation of galectin-3 into models for predicting mortality and cerebral disability enhanced fit and discrimination, demonstrating the incremental value of galectin-3 beyond traditional risk predictors. Galectin-3 is a significant, independent long-term risk predictor of cerebral disability and mortality in OHCA survivors. Incorporating galectin-3 into current risk stratification models may enhance early prognostication and guide targeted clinical interventions.