Long-term Research Program Research Articles

A Comment on the Scientific and Technological Development Strategy of the Russian Federation

The article discusses the text of the Scientific and Technological Development Strategy of Russia approved in early 2024. The author notes that it was prepared in accordance with the Federal Law “On Strategic Planning in the Russian Federation” of June 28, 2014, No. 172-FZ. The Strategy replaces a number of documents that have been adopted earlier. The expert community have different opinions on the preparation quality of concepts, strategies, programs and other strategic documents being approved. The reason lies in the absence of a clear system and hierarchy of strategic planning documents. In the Strategy under discussion, there is a vagueness of the used conceptual framework and some shortcomings in the analytical part of the document. In addition, the authors of the Strategy connect the issues of the development of the science and technology sector in the Russian Federation mainly with external challenges and threats and pay less attention to internal problems caused primarily by the inefficiency of the R&D management system, insufficient financing and a low proportion of private funding. It is shown that no significant changes are expected in the management system of scientific and technological development in Russia in the next decade. We can welcome the establishment of the Science and Technology Council of the Commission for Scientific and Technological Development of the Russian Federation under the Russian Government and its machinery and the introduction of the model of “qualified customer”, as well as the use of new tools: long-term fundamental academic research programs and programs of scientific and technological development of Russia. But the discussed Strategy does not pay enough attention to the issues of education and training of research and engineering personnel.

Coassembly and binning of a twenty-year metagenomic time-series from Lake Mendota

The North Temperate Lakes Long-Term Ecological Research (NTL-LTER) program has been extensively used to improve understanding of how aquatic ecosystems respond to environmental stressors, climate fluctuations, and human activities. Here, we report on the metagenomes of samples collected between 2000 and 2019 from Lake Mendota, a freshwater eutrophic lake within the NTL-LTER site. We utilized the distributed metagenome assembler MetaHipMer to coassemble over 10 terabases (Tbp) of data from 471 individual Illumina-sequenced metagenomes. A total of 95,523,664 contigs were assembled and binned to generate 1,894 non-redundant metagenome-assembled genomes (MAGs) with ≥50% completeness and ≤10% contamination. Phylogenomic analysis revealed that the MAGs were nearly exclusively bacterial, dominated by Pseudomonadota (Proteobacteria, N = 623) and Bacteroidota (N = 321). Nine eukaryotic MAGs were identified by eukCC with six assigned to the phylum Chlorophyta. Additionally, 6,350 high-quality viral sequences were identified by geNomad with the majority classified in the phylum Uroviricota. This expansive coassembled metagenomic dataset provides an unprecedented foundation to advance understanding of microbial communities in freshwater ecosystems and explore temporal ecosystem dynamics.

Nine Lessons about Aquatic Invasive Species from the North Temperate Lakes Long-Term Ecological Research (NTL-LTER) Program.

Freshwater ecosystems can serve as model systems that reveal insights into biological invasions. In this article, we summarize nine lessons about aquatic invasive species from the North Temperate Lakes Long-Term Ecological Research program and affiliated projects. The lessons about aquatic invasive species are as follows: Invasive species are more widespread than has been documented; they are usually at low abundance; they can irrupt from low-density populations in response to environmental triggers; they can occasionally have enormous and far-reaching impacts; they can affect microbial communities; reservoirs act as invasive species hotspots; ecosystem vulnerability to invasion can be estimated; invasive species removal can produce long-term benefits; and the impacts of invasive species control may be greater than the impacts of the invasive species. This synthesis highlights how long-term research on a freshwater landscape can advance our understanding of invasions.

A unified approach to long-term population monitoring of grizzly bears in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

Long-term wildlife research and monitoring programs strive to maintain consistent data collections and analytical methods. Incorporating new techniques is important but can render data sets incongruent and limit their potential to discern trends in demographic parameters. Integrated population models (IPMs) can address these limitations by combining data sources that may span different periods into a unified statistical framework while providing a holistic view of population dynamics. We developed an IPM in a Bayesian framework for grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. We coupled demographic data with multiple, independent population count data to link annual changes in abundance with vital rates over 4 decades (1983–2023). Abundance increased threefold from an estimated 270 individuals in 1984 to 1030 individuals in 2023. Parameter estimates indicated survival of bears ≥2 years of age was high, contributing to robust population growth during the 1980s (λ = 1.023 [50 % interquartile range = 0.993–1.082]) and 1990s (λ = 1.064 [1.023–1.103]). A slowing of population growth started around 2000 (2000s: λ = 1.030 [0.989–1.068]) and continued into the 2010s (λ = 1.021 [0.985–1.057]), due primarily to reductions in survival of bears <2 years of age. These findings corroborate previous research that identified density-dependent effects as a likely cause. The IPM framework provided greater certainty and understanding regarding the dynamic demographic characteristics of the population and serves as a powerful monitoring tool for this long-lived species. Implementation of the IPM allows timely dissemination of demographic data to help inform adaptive management strategies and policy decisions necessary for the continued management and conservation of this population. This robust and flexible monitoring system allows scientists to investigate the effects of a changing ecosystem on population dynamics, incorporate new data sources and statistical models, and respond to changes in monitoring needs for the population. We highlight the efficacy of the IPM in estimating and tracking demographic parameters for a long-lived species, while accommodating shifts in monitoring techniques and data collections typical of long-term wildlife conservation programs worldwide.

Global arms exports : the formation of a new paradigm

The modern world market for arms and military equipment (WME) is experiencing a whole range of structural and dynamic changes caused by numerous global problems in the development of the world economy, the nature of competition in this market, as well as the formation of a multipolar world order. The purpose of the study was to assess possible changes in the long-term program of research on international trade in arms and military equipment, taking into account the specified triggers. As the research has shown, the political economy of global arms and military equipment exports is undergoing a significant transformation when, with the emergence of new players in the global arms and military equipment market, its qualitative characteristics and development parameters change, unconventionally affecting global demand and supply for weapons. In turn, the dynamics of defense spending have an ambiguous impact on the market under study, which can both crowd out investments in other sectors and affect the economic growth of the country and its position in global arms and military equipment exports. Finally, the global arms and military equipment market is witnessing serious and previously unknown changes in the global architecture of multilateral regulation, which determine the formation of global value chains within the framework of military-political blocs. These transformations lead to a new understanding of international cooperation between countries exporting and importing weapons and military equipment and form a new set of research problems.

Six years of high-resolution climatic data collected along an elevation gradient in the Italian Alps

The complex meso- and microclimatic heterogeneity inherent to mountainous regions, driven by both topographic and biotic factors, and the lack of observations, poses significant challenges to using climate models to predict and understand impacts at various scales. We present here a six-year dataset (2017–2022) of continuous climatic measurements collected at five elevations from 983 m to 2705 m above sea level in the Val Mazia - Matschertal valley in the Italian Alps. The measurements include the air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and direction, solar radiation, soil properties, precipitation, and snow height. Collected within the European Long-Term Ecological Research program (LTER), this dataset is freely available in an open access repository. The time series may be valuable for the validation of regional climate models, atmospheric exchange modelling, and providing support for hydrological models and remote sensing products in mountain environments. Additionally, our data may be useful for research on the influence of elevation on ecological processes such as vegetation growth, plant composition, and soil biology. Beyond its utility in advancing such fundamental research, meteorological monitoring data contribute to informed socio-political decisions on climate adaptation strategies, land management, and water resource planning, enhancing the safety and resilience of mountain communities and biodiversity.

Habitat suitability of biocrust communities in a cold desert ecosystem.

Drylands are unique among terrestrial ecosystems in that they have a significant proportion of primary production facilitated by non-vascular plants such as colonial cyanobacteria, moss, and lichens, i.e., biocrusts, which occur on and in the surface soil. Biocrusts inhabit all continents, including Antarctica, an increasingly dynamic continent on the precipice of change. Here, we describe in-situ field surveying and sampling, remote sensing, and modeling approaches to assess the habitat suitability of biocrusts in the Lake Fryxell basin of Taylor Valley, Antarctica, which is the main site of the McMurdo Dry Valleys Long-Term Ecological Research Program. Soils suitable for the development of biocrusts are typically wetter, less alkaline, and less saline compared to unvegetated soils. Using random forest models, we show that gravimetric water content, electrical conductivity, and snow frequency are the top predictors of biocrust presence and biomass. Areas most suitable for the growth of dense biocrusts are soils associated with seasonal snow patches. Using geospatial data to extrapolate our habitat suitability model to the whole basin predicts that biocrusts are present in 2.7 × 105 m2 and contain 11-72 Mg of aboveground carbon, based on the 90% probability of occurrence. Our study illustrates the synergistic effect of combining field and remote sensing data for understanding the distribution and biomass of biocrusts, a foundational community in the carbon balance of this region. Extreme weather events and changing climate conditions in this region, especially those influencing snow accumulation and persistence, could have significant effects on the future distribution and abundance of biocrusts and therefore soil organic carbon storage in the McMurdo Dry Valleys.

Biodiversity monitoring for the jarrah (Eucalyptus marginata) forest in south-west Western Australia: An extension to ten-year findings of Forestcheck

Long-term research and monitoring programs can provide important insights into biodiversity patterns to inform sustainable management of multi-use forest ecosystems. This study investigated biodiversity patterns in two forest ecosystems in the southwest region of Australia, as part of a long-term monitoring program, Forestcheck, established to track changes and trends in forest biodiversity associated with management activities. We assessed the effects of forest ecosystem, silvicultural treatment types (gap release and shelterwood/selective harvesting) and time since fire, on taxonomic richness and assemblage patterns across six taxonomic groups (terrestrial vertebrates, birds, macro-invertebrates, vascular plants, macro-fungi and cryptogams). Further, temporal comparisons in taxonomic richness and assemblage were completed for vascular plants and terrestrial vertebrates using data collected in a second round of monitoring. There was a low-level effect of harvesting and prescribed burning disturbance on combined community assemblage, but forest ecosystem had a greater influence on biodiversity patterns. Plant assemblages changed significantly according to ecosystem, silvicultural treatment type and monitoring round when two rounds of monitoring data were considered. These findings support previous assessments of Forestcheck sites, in that the strongest determinant of biodiversity patterns was forest ecosystem, and the greatest effects of disturbance were on assemblage patterns. These results provide some insight into post disturbance patterns and may assist with decision-making in relation to silviculture and prescribed burning regimes, and post-silviculture management, to provide increased opportunity for restoration of diversity.

Forging just ecologies: 25 years of urban long-term ecological research collaboration

We ask how environmental justice and urban ecology have influenced one another over the past 25 years in the context of the US Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) program and Baltimore Ecosystem Study (BES) project. BES began after environmental justice emerged through activism and scholarship in the 1980s but spans a period of increasing awareness among ecologists and environmental practitioners. The work in Baltimore provides a detailed example of how ecological research has been affected by a growing understanding of environmental justice. The shift shows how unjust environmental outcomes emerge and are reinforced over time by systemic discrimination and exclusion. We do not comprehensively review the literature on environmental justice in urban ecology but do present four brief cases from the Caribbean, Africa, and Asia, to illustrate the global relevance of the topic. The example cases demonstrate the necessity for continuous engagement with communities in addressing environmental problem solving.

Emergence of the Universal Wellbeing Model - A journey from indigenous cultural responsiveness to international relevance and applicability

A search began in 2008 to identify a theoretical wellbeing model with the capacity to underpin holistic student supports for a cohort of Indigenous and Pacific Island students in order to support their achievement, and equity aspirations. An initial literature review found evidence-based wellbeing definitions, and models related to higher education students to be highly variable. A long term programme of research was implemented to build a robust philosophical, theoretical, research, and use inspired practice base to measurably enhance the inclusion and holistic wellbeing of all students in higher education settings. Post a nationally funded investigation into the effectiveness of an indigenous model in praxis, a more robust model was sought and investigated with more ethnically and culturally diverse international students, staff, and holistic wellbeing-pastoral care practitioners. The methods selected to comprehensively answer the questions posed included a programme of themed literature review, theoretical model analysis and evaluation, plus use inspired theoretical and practice research. Findings from the second funded investigation led to the emergence, and creation of new, indigenously based but internationally responsive Universal Wellbeing Model (UWM), and new ‘researchable’ definition of wellbeing. The emerging UWM, and a new definition of wellbeing, were strongly contributed to by international participants perspectives. The implications for the practice of higher education sector leaders, staff, professional wellbeing and pastoral care practitioners, and policy makers are far reaching. The UWM is capable of underpinning policy, planning, wellbeing and pastoral care practice, and supportive cross organisational systems in institutions seeking to measurably enhance wellbeing outcomes.

Variable forage fish biomass and phenology influence marine predator diet, foraging behavior, and species interactions in coastal Newfoundland, Canada

Abstract Forage fish species provide essential linkages for energy transfer within pelagic marine food webs. Capelin (Mallotus villosus), the focal forage fish in coastal Newfoundland, Canada, suffered a stock collapse in 1991 and has not recovered. Despite this collapse, capelin continue to provide locally abundant prey aggregations. Here, I synthesize the lessons learned from a long-term capelin-predator research program (2004–2022) on the northeast Newfoundland coast during the postcollapse period. I highlight the importance of simultaneously estimating forage fish biomass and predator responses in a multispecies and multiyear context. High interannual variation in capelin spawning timing and biomass was observed. Lower capelin biomass consistently resulted in predator species- and assemblage-level dietary shifts toward a higher diversity of lower trophic level, alternative prey. Energetic foraging costs of seabirds also increased under lower capelin biomass, but responses differed among species. Summer capelin consumption by dominant seabirds (9389 tonnes) and whales (778 tonnes) indicated predator energetic requirements and revealed higher natural mortality relative to fishery-based (1289 tonnes) mortality. Overall, this case study illustrated that, despite high observed behavioural plasticity, varying species-specific predator responses to changing capelin biomass integrated to increase potential competitive interactions under low capelin biomass, providing a basis for ecosystem-level change.

Quantifying potential marine debris sources and potential threats to penguins on the West Antarctic Peninsula

Marine pollution is becoming ubiquitous in the environment. Observations of pollution on beaches, in the coastal ocean, and in organisms in the Antarctic are becoming distressingly common. Increasing human activity, growing tourism, and an expanding krill fishing industry along the West Antarctic Peninsula all represent potential sources of plastic pollution and other debris (collectively referred to as debris) to the region. However, the sources of these pollutants from point (pollutants released from discrete sources) versus non-point (pollutants from a large area rather than a specific source) sources are poorly understood. We used buoyant simulated particles released in a high-resolution physical ocean model to quantify pollutant loads throughout the region. We considered non-point sources of debris from the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, Bellingshausen Sea, Weddell Sea, and point source pollution from human activities including tourism, research, and fishing. We also determined possible origins for observed debris based on data from the Southern Ocean Observing System and Palmer Long-Term Ecological Research program. Our results indicate that point source pollution released in the coastal Antarctic is more likely to serve as a source for observed debris than non-point sources, and that the dominant source of pollution is region-specific. Penguin colonies in the South Shetland and Elephant Islands had the greatest debris load from point sources whereas loads from non-point sources were greatest around the southernmost colonies. Penguin colonies at Cornwallis Island and Fort Point were exposed to the highest theoretical debris loads. While these results do not include physical processes such as windage and Stokes Drift that are known to impact debris distributions and transport in the coastal ocean, these results provide critical insights to building an effective stratified sampling and monitoring effort to better understand debris distributions, concentrations, and origins throughout the West Antarctic Peninsula.

Conservation status of the blind mole rat populations in Hungary (Rodentia: Spalacinae: Nannospalax) revisited.

Regular reviews of long-term research and conservation programs are useful sources of information for future directions in science and for the assessment of current conservation status of taxa. In this paper, we compiled all available data from the last 10years related to Hungarian blind mole rat populations and assessed this information according to the following main themes: systematics, distribution and threats, and conservation actions. Based on the most recent information, national and global risk assessments are provided for the three species of Nannospalax (N. montanosyrmiensis, N. hungaricus and N. syrmiensis), currently accepted as part of the Hungarian fauna.

Multi-dimensional temperature sensitivity of protected tropical mountain rain forests

IntroductionTropical mountain rain forests (TMRF, natural forests at &amp;gt; 300 m asl) are globally important for biodiversity and ecosystem services and are believed to be highly vulnerable to climate change. But there are no specific approaches for rigorous assessment of their vulnerability at the landscape and local scales necessary for management for adaptation. We address the challenge of evaluating the ecological sensitivity to temperature of TMRF, applying a multidimensional approach in protected areas over a 440–2,950 m asl altitudinal gradient in Costa Rica, synthesizing results of a long-term research programme (2012-present). We evaluate the sensitivity to the current spatial temperature gradient of eleven ecosystem properties in three categories: forest composition and diversity, thermal characteristics of forest stands and forest structure and dynamics.MethodsData are from 29 to 32 plots of 50 m x 50 m (0.25 ha) distributed over the gradient, in which all trees, palms and tree ferns ≥ 10 dbh are identified to species and measured for recruitment, growth and mortality. An experimental study of leaf litter decomposition rates was carried out in twelve plots. Current and future (SSP 585, 2070) values of mean annual temperatures MAT were obtained from online climate surfaces. Thermal characteristics of forest stands were determined using MATs of species occurrences in GBIF and include a new index, the Community Thermal Capital Index (CTCI), calculated as CTI-MAT.ResultsWe classified degrees of sensitivity to temperature as very weak, weak, moderate or substantial. All eleven ecosystem properties are substantially sensitive, so changes in their values are expected under rising temperatures. Species density, the community temperature index CTI, tree recruitment and mortality rates and leaf litter decomposition rates are positively related to temperature, while the community weighted mean thermal niche breadth, the CTCI, net basal area increments, stand basal area and carbon in aboveground biomass are negatively related. Results point to zones of vulnerability in the protected areas.DiscussionIn montane forests, positive values of the CTCI–climate credit– robust basal area growth and very low mortality and leaf litter decomposition rates suggest healthy ecosystems and no risk of mountaintop extinction. Lowland forests may be vulnerable to degradation and biotic attrition, showing current basal area loss, high mortality and climate debts. National and local actors are participating in a process of adoption of the sensitivity analysis and recommendations regarding zones of vulnerability.

Tropical Mountain Peatlands from Southern Espinhaço Range, Brazil: Ecosystem Services, Biodiversity and Paleoenvironmental Reconstruction

Peatlands are transition ecosystems between terrestrial and aquatic environments, formed over time and space by the accumulation of plant materials under conditions of excessive moisture, low nutrient availability, low pH and oxygen scarcity, in which organic matter undergoes slow processes of humification. Peatland ecosystems from the Southern Espinhaço Range (SdEM), located in the State of Minas Gerais, were formed by the sui generis combination of environmental factors, setting the stage for their vast biodiversity, endemic and peculiar. For thousands of years these ecosystems have been developing, preserving proxies for environmental reconstitution, sequestering more and more carbon, and increasing their capacity to store water (spongelike effect) and regulate the water discharge from streams. Environmental reconstruction studies carried out in these ecosystems have revealed various regional paleoclimatic changes in the last 35,000 years. The carbon stock sequestered is 8.7 Mt, and 255 million m3 of water are stored in 25,385 hectares of these peatlands. These ecosystems constitute the headwaters of the most important rivers in Eastern Brazil: the São Francisco, Jequitinhonha, and Doce River basins, and regulate their flows during the dry season. However, peatlands located outside of conservation units are threatened by human activity. The Long-Term Ecological Research Program “Peatlands of the Southern Espinhaço Range: Ecosystem Services and Biodiversity” (PELDturf; funded by National Council of Scientific and Technologic Development - CNPq and Minas Gerais State Research Support Foundation - Fapemig), initiated in 2021, has intensified the characterization and monitoring of biodiversity and ecosystem services of peatlands. The results of two decades of research have revealed the importance of these ecosystems for biodiversity, the global carbon cycle, regional water resources, and paleoenvironmental reconstruction. It has also become evident that the rapid degradation of these ecosystems, mainly caused by human activity, can irreversibly compromise their ecosystem services, biodiversity, and paleoenvironmental reconstruction studies in the medium term. Therefore, it is imperative to empower local and regional communities regarding the importance of peatland ecosystems for the environment, socio-economy, and quality of life for their populations, as well as for the planet.

Delivering impact via the ebb-and-flow of a research team: Reflection on a long-term program of research into a global societal challenge*

In this paper, we draw insights from a 15-year qualitative research program exploring catastrophe insurance and gaps in insurance protection as risks escalate within a world impacted by a climate emergency. We suggest that the ebb-and-flow of our research team's composition and activities through time was inextricably linked with our ability to have a sustained impact on such a large-scale societal issue. The essay situates itself within the research impact and team literature, narrates the trajectory of our research program and team development, and develops a framework for effectively managing impact-oriented qualitative research teams over time. Our framework illustrates key aspects of this process including team (re)forming, building team and individual stickability, performing, and managing team flux. We also present 10 practical takeaways for how these aspects can be managed effectively to produce long-term impact work to address grand challenges.

Safety Validation of Learning-Based Autonomous Systems: A Multi-Fidelity Approach

In recent years, learning-based autonomous systems have emerged as a promising tool for automating many crucial tasks. The key question is how we can build trust in such systems for safety-critical applications. My research aims to focus on the creation and validation of safety frameworks that leverage multiple sources of information. The ultimate goal is to establish a solid foundation for a long-term research program aimed at understanding the role of fidelity in simulators for safety validation and robot learning.

Conceptualising community engagement as an infinite game implemented through finite games of 'research', 'community organising'and 'knowledge mobilisation'.

Meaningful community engagement process involves focusing on the community needs, building community capacityand employing culturally tailored and community-specific strategies. In the current practices of community-engaged health and wellness research, generally, community engagement activities commence with the beginning of a particular research project on a specific topic and end with the completion of the project. The outcomes of the community engagement, including the trust, partnershipand contribution of the community to research, thus remain limited to that specific project and are not generally transferred and fostered further to the following project on a different topic. In this viewpoint article, we discussed a philosophical approach to community engagement that proposes to juxtapose community engagement for the specific short-term research project and the overarching long-term programme of research with the finite game and infinite game concepts, respectively. A finite game is a concept of a game where the players are known, rules are fixed and when the agreed-upon goal is achieved, the game ends. On the other hand, in infinite games, the players may be both known and unknown, have no externally fixed rulesand have the objective of continuing the game beyond a particular research project. We believe community engagement needs to be conducted as an infinite game that is, at the programme of research level, where the goal of the respective activities is not to complete a research project but to successfully engage the community itself is the goal. While conducting various research projects, that is, finite games, the researchers need to keep an infinite game mindset throughout, which includes working with the community for a just cause, building trust and community capacity to maximise their contribution to research, prioritising community needsand having the courage to lead the community if need be. Patient or Public Contribution: While preparing this manuscript, we have partnered actively with community champions,activists, community scholarsand citizen researchers at the community level from the very beginning. We had regular interactions with them to get their valuable and insightful inputs in shaping our reflections. Their involvement as coauthors in this paper also provided a learning opportunity for them and facilitated them to gain insight on knowledge engagement. All authors support greater community/citizen/public involvement in research in an equitable manner.

Data modeling and NLP-based scoring method to assess the relevance of environmental regulatory announcements

The constantly growing body of global environmental legislation necessitates that corporate environmental compliance managers frequently assess the relevance of new regulations and regulation revisions for each of their sites. Companies are pressured to streamline and automate this crucial task through digital workflows and specialized IT-based assistance systems. This has recently piqued the interest of researchers working in different disciplines, such as intelligent systems, machine learning, and natural language processing. The article describes the latest results of our long-term research program on IT-based support for corporate compliance management, offering insights for these, and other disciplines. The context and the main aspects of environmental regulation announcements and the relevance assessment task are analyzed. An extensive conceptual data model is developed that serves as a foundation for tailoring a generic method to perform a relevance assessment that considers site-specific individual environmental compliance facts. The method uses heuristic data operations and various text processing techniques from the field of natural language understanding. In order to exemplify the method, two application scenarios are described in which the relevance of new waste management directives are assessed for a multi-site production company.

Strengthening Pandemic Preparedness in Long-Term Care.

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, Healthcare Excellence Canada, the Canadian Institutes of Health Research and several provincial partners launched the Implementation Science Teams - Strengthening Pandemic Preparedness in Long-Term Care rapid research program. The program provided funding and a range of supports to the Implementation Science Teams (ISTs) that implemented and evaluated at least one of six promising practice interventions/policy options within Canadian long-term care and retirement homes. This article provides context in terms of introducing the purpose of this special issue and outlining the research initiative, the ISTs' research areas of focus and the program's overall reach.