Long-term Project Research Articles

The Bottom-Line Choice: Lease vs. Buy – A Business Owner's Guide

This comprehensive guide navigates businesses through the intricate decision-making process of leasing versus buying, addressing the pivotal capital conundrum they face. The framework begins with a meticulous financial fitness check, evaluating cash flow, budget constraints, and long-term projections. Exploring various types of leases provides a nuanced understanding of leasing advantages, from flexibility to off-balance sheet financing. Conversely, ownership’s power is analysed, emphasizing control, stability, and long-term value creation. The guide integrates risk mitigation strategies for both options, emphasizing the importance of negotiating favourable terms and conducting due diligence. As businesses stand at the crossroads, this guide serves as a strategic compass, empowering informed decisions aligned with financial goals, operational needs, and sustained success in the dynamic business landscape.

Coastal evolution and future projections in Conde County, Brazil: A multi-decadal assessment via remote sensing and sea-level rise scenarios

Global sea levels, having risen by approximately 20 cm since the mid-19th century, necessitate a critical examination of their impacts on shoreline dynamics. This research evaluates the historical (1985–2022) and future shoreline changes in Conde County, Paraíba State, Brazil, an area of significant touristic interest. Employing Landsat satellite imagery, the study utilized the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) and a Kalman filter algorithm for cloud removal, while also assessing land use and land cover changes using data from the MapBiomas Project for 2000, 2010, and 2020. These analyses informed projections of potential inundation under various sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios: 1, 2, 5, and 10 m. Key findings revealed a negative average coastline change rate of −0.27 m/year from 1985 to 2022, indicative of erosive trends likely accelerated by human activities. Long-term projections for 2032 and 2042 anticipate continued erosion in areas identified as highly vulnerable. The SLR scenario analysis underscores the urgent need for adaptive climate measures; while a 1- or 2-meter SLR presents limited immediate effects, a 5-meter rise could lead to significant inundation across key sectors, including urban and agricultural landscapes. The projected severity of a 10-meter SLR necessitates immediate, comprehensive interventions to safeguard both natural and human systems.

Arguing and bargaining in international forums: The need for a novel approach

Most of the literature examining forum-based social interactions considers arguing and bargaining as the main modes of communication used by negotiating parties, and authors have often claimed that arguing interactions can be distinguished from bargaining ones on the basis of the presence/absence of some validation mechanisms. Starting from this assumption, authors have tried to study real-world international negotiations and to distinguish arguing from bargaining empirically. These attempts, however, have encountered several paralyzing methodological hindrances. This paper claims that the current differentiation between arguing and bargaining is built on erroneous assumptions and on a certain degree of undertheorization of bargaining types of forum interaction. The position advanced in this paper is that both arguing and bargaining types of interaction rely on similar validation mechanisms. Furthermore, the study shows that this erroneous distinction is the reason why authors have hitherto been unable to isolate and distinguish arguing from bargaining while looking at real-world international negotiations. The final goal of this paper is to challenge the current definitions of arguing and bargaining, and to provide the first step of a long-term research project aiming at the reconceptualization of these two types of interaction.

Mega-infrastructure development, tourism sustainability and quality of life assessment at world heritage sites: catering to COVID-19 challenges

PurposeMega-infrastructure development plans pave the way for policies to upgrade the infrastructure, environmental management and different aspects of locals’ well-being. These developmental dynamics can positively affect rural tourism including heritage sites destinations. The quality of life of local people can be linked to this positive developmental change through long-term and sustainable economic revitalization projects. In terms of this process, developing large-scale infrastructure and incorporating tourism sustainability can improve the quality of life-related to different dimensions that are critical to the community's well-being. Therefore, researchers have attempted to address this issue.Design/methodology/approachData were collected between September and October 2020. The study sample size was the residents of Zhabagly village, including Zhabagaly, Abaiyl and 115 Railway settlements. Moreover, the residents were older than 18 years. A systematic random sampling technique was utilised to reach the targeted sample size and the researchers received 243 responses from the locals. Structural equation modelling (SEM) was used for analysis.FindingsThe findings from the structural equation modelling suggest that sustainable tourism increases due to the positive effect of mega-infrastructure development and positively impacts the locals' quality of life. Notably, no direct effect of mega-infrastructure development on quality of life reveals the pivotal role of sustainable tourism. Therefore, during the COVID-19 period, the dimensions of sustainable tourism – economic, market, socio-cultural and environmental – played a role in securing the positive impact of mega-infrastructure development on the locals’ quality of life.Research limitations/implicationsThis research highlighted the fact that when infrastructure projects are implemented to their full potential, they will generate sustainable tourism activities, provide eco-adventure activities, relax, treat signatories and boost the economy of all stakeholders. The study used AMOS to test the hypotheses. Qualitative research methods, including interviews with citizens, government officials and tourism managers, require further study.Practical implicationsThe infrastructural development on a mega-scale means building an upscaling tourism ecosystem. This ecosystem is marked by the availability of drinking water, waste and energy management facilities that support the elevation of living material, community, health, safety and emotional well-being. It reflects the policy-level implications for future Belt and Road initiatives (BRIs). The tourism industry's resilience during COVID-19 has practical lessons for other industries.Originality/valueLarge-scale infrastructure construction must create favourable conditions for the rapid development of tourism. The availability of clean water, waste and energy management facilities contributes to the food production, social cohesion, physical and mental health and general well-being of the ecosystem. This is one of the few studies that used sustainable tourism as a mediator between the impact of large infrastructure projects and their impact on the quality of life of locals during the COVID-19 pandemic. Aksu-Zhabagly, a World Heritage Site in Kazakhstan, was the site of this field study.

ФОРМИРОВАНИЕ ИНВЕСТИЦИОННОГО ПРОЕКТА И ОЦЕНКА ФИНАНСОВОГО СОСТОЯНИЯ ЕГО КОНТРАГЕНТОВ

The article is devoted to the problems arising at the stage of formation of long-term investment projects and assessment of the financial condition of its potential counterparties, carried out in order to ensure the economic security of the project and the transaction. The article reveals the tasks of drafting an investment project, describes an approach to the selection of its participants, justifies the need to apply an analysis of the financial condition of potential participants in an investment project at the pre-selection stage, suggests an analytical methodology capable of conducting such an analysis based on opensource material, confirms its necessity in assessing the economic security of an investment project. Of course, the issue of ensuring the economic security of investment projects requires a broader approach, which is also noted in the article. The authors of the article focus on what is happening in the global economic

Graduate student experiences and perspectives related to conducting thesis research within long-term ecological projects

Long-term ecological research (LTER) projects are considered valuable training grounds for graduate student researchers, yet student voices are largely absent from discussions of LTER merits in the literature. We aimed to identify benefits and challenges encountered by current and former graduate students in conducting graduate research within LTER projects. To explore graduate student experiences and perspectives, we conducted a survey comprising both closed-ended questions (i.e., multiple choice and Likert scale) and open-ended questions. From the responses, we identified emergent categories related to positive and negative experiences using sentiment analysis. We found agreement with purported benefits in areas including networking and access to established field sites and protocols. However, participants also identified data accessibility, authorship decisions, communication, and interpersonal conflicts as significant sources of challenges. We synthesized survey results with existing literature to provide actionable recommendations for principal investigators in four main areas (data, authorship, communication, and management) through an LTER lens. In addition to providing longitudinal data, LTER projects offer graduate students both physical and methodological infrastructure that can serve as the scaffold for new research questions to be developed. However, the likelihood of success of student research, as well as the success of the students themselves, can be improved when the needs of graduate students are prioritized.

Evaluating the Sources of Financing Working Capital of Small Businesses in the Tarkwa Nsuaem Municipality

The role of small and medium enterprises in the development of the economies of third-world countries is by far indispensable. However, the ability of these enterprises to raise their working capital to perform these roles remains laborious. This paper evaluated sources of financing working capital, assessed the accessibility and utilization of traditional financing options, examined the role and significance of alternative financing methods and proposed recommendations to SMEs in the Tarkwa Nsuaem Municipality of the Western Region of Ghana. The study considered 120 (53.3%) out of 225 SMEs in the Municipality. It adopted a quasi-experimental research design and obtained data using a cross-sectional survey. Descriptive statistics was used to evaluate the components of working capital. The study showed that SMEs operators preferred the use of personal funding for their businesses to the use of bank loans. Again, the firms appear to be liquidity conscious and thus, refrained from financing long-term projects with short-term funds. A key recommendation of the paper is that SMEs should make use of entrepreneurial programs offered by the NBSSI and NGOs since these come with education and training.

한 초등학교가 지역사회 연계 교육협력으로 폐교 위기를 극복하는 내러티브

This study seeks to understand the process and changes in which an elementary school overcomes the crisis of school closure by collaborating with the community in a situation where regional disappearance is accelerating, and focuses on the education created through cooperation between the school and the community. In a situation where school closures and local disappearances are emerging as serious national problems due to aging and declining school-age population, there is a need to study cases that have saved schools and communities. For this purpose, in this study, Myoryang Jungang Elementary School, the only remaining school in Myoryang-myeon, was selected as the research target school and an in-depth interview method was used. As a result of the research, Myoryang Jungang Elementary School was designated as a closed school in 2009, but it grew into a school that people want to go to through educational cooperation between the school and community. Due to the sense of local extinction, local residents, parents, and ‘YoeMindongrak’ group actively participated in saving the school, strengthening care education and operating several community-based programs outside the school. By establishing educational governance at various levels, including the Myoryang Education Community Council, we created an educational community where schools and community become one. Starting in 2019, local-community based education programs for each grade were developed in connection with the school’s creative experience activities and operated throughout the year. Through this, school teachers and community residents were able to communicate continuously, and school teachers were able to autonomously reflect community-related content in their curriculum. Based on this, it is necessary to recognize and utilize the educational potential of the community, and the advantages and disadvantages of organizing community-based education in connection with creative experiential activities and the future educational value of community-based education programs operated as long-term projects were discussed.

Strategic Surprise and Implications for State Defense

The article is based on a study carried out as part of the Long-Term Organizational Development Plan project by the Center for Security and Military-Strategic Studies of the University of Defense entitled "Armed Conflict". As part of the study, the issue of strategic surprise was analyzed and assessed, the aim of which was to find causal mechanisms and connections between the security of state defense and the phenomenon of surprise in the conditions of the 21st century. The article deals with the issue of surprise and its impact on state defense security. It describes strategic surprise as a principled aspect with implications and impacts on state defense. It examines the issue of surprise as a principle of military art in the context of contemporary strategic thinking.

Methionol as an aggregation-sex pheromone of the desert-dwelling beetle Eustromula valida (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae).

As part of a long-term project on unraveling the use of pheromones in the large beetle family Cerambycidae, field trials were conducted with generic blends of known cerambycid pheromones at a desert site in southern California. In the first year of testing (2022), the species Eustromula valida (LeConte) (subfamily Cerambycinae, tribe Elaphidiini) and Aethecerinus latecinctus (Horn) (Cerambycinae, Trachyderini) were weakly attracted to one of the lure blends. In follow-up trials in 2023, only E. valida were caught, and collection of volatiles from both sexes of E. valida determined that males sex-specifically produced 3-methylthiopropan-1-ol (methionol), a compound that was not in the tested lure blends. Beetles of both sexes were strongly and specifically attracted to this compound in field bioassays, verifying that it is an aggregation-sex pheromone. No sympatric species were attracted to methionol while it was deployed in the field. Several recent studies have identified methionol as a pheromone component for other cerambycid species in both North and South America, suggesting it may represent another common pheromone component within the Cerambycidae.

Students’ Acceptance of Drones Using the Knowledge, Attitudes, and Practice (KAP) Model

Currently, drones are used for commercial, public safety, recreational, and scientific research purposes. Both short-term and long-term projections indicate the extensive adoption of drones in numerous industries. However, it is uncertain whether future generations will tolerate this high potential for drone congestion. This quantitative survey study investigated students' approval of drones by employing the Knowledge, Attitude, and Practise (KAP) model and reducing uncertainty with statistical analysis. A recent survey utilised the KAP model to determine the public's perception of drones. This survey instrument was completely redesigned to better comprehend students' knowledge, attitudes, and risk perceptions regarding forty distinct drone applications. The practise section was also redesigned to better comprehend how students use drones on a personal and academic level. The results indicated that drones are currently approved. Commercial and recreational uses are not permitted. Students view drones as a potentially dangerous technology that directly invades their privacy. Furthermore, students are unaware of the majority of prospective and current drone applications. The survey was disseminated to college and high school students to represent the younger generation of the population (113 completed surveys). Additionally, students must be informed about these strategies via the media and educational institutions. This may assist in transforming the perception of drones from destroying machines and privacy invaders to a technology beneficial to society

Comparing established practice for short-term forecasts and emerging use of climate projections to identify opportunities for climate services in Australian agriculture

The use of climate services in agriculture to improve both tactical and strategic management decisions on farm is an area of increasing societal interest and technological development in Australia, as climate change increases climate variability and risk. Yet the focus of most uses of climate services remains on weather and seasonal forecasts and tactical farm responses, with longer term climate projections less often empirically examined. In this paper we analyse 25 interviews with farmers in Australia and use social practice theory to compare farm risk management decisions utilising short-term weather forecasting and longer-term climate projection planning. We identify different elements of climate risk management as a social practice, looking particularly at materials (objects and tools), meanings (beliefs and thinking) and competencies (skills and knowledge) associated with climate services. We find that there are significant differences in how decisions are made using different temporal data scales and furthermore, that there are large gaps in the materials, meaning and competencies for the use of longer-term climate projections. This analysis allows us to clearly identify opportunities for the agricultural sector in Australia, and globally, to better support decisions in both weather and climate timeframes by treating these as distinctly different capabilities and addressing the different elements of social practice outlined here.

Improving the Use of Weather and Climate Information for Farm Decision Making in Victoria, Oriental Mindoro, Philippines

Weather and climate are crucial factors that greatly influence the agricultural sector, especially in the decision-making process of farmers. A recent study conducted in the municipality of Victoria, Oriental Mindoro, Philippines aimed to evaluate the utilization of climate and weather forecasts in farm operations. The study collected primary data through a household survey using a structured questionnaire, with a total of 324 randomly selected respondents based on Cochran's formula. The findings of the study revealed that a significant majority of farmers, approximately 85%, are aware of climate change. This awareness is heightened by their perception of long-term changes in climate, particularly in rainfall patterns. Farmers recognize and acknowledge the impact of climate change on their agricultural practices. When it comes to obtaining information about weather and climate, the study found that television is the primary source for most farmers. This highlights the importance of broadcasting accurate and timely weather forecasts to ensure farmers stay informed and prepared. Furthermore, the study discovered that weather and seasonal climate forecasts, along with long-term climate projections, significantly influence various farm operations. These operations include the selection of rice varieties, timing of seed sowing, application of fertilizers and pesticides, water management, harvesting and storage, and even selling decisions. The reliance on science-based information is crucial for farmers as traditional knowledge alone is no longer reliable in the face of changing climate conditions. Based on the study's results, it is evident that farmers in Victoria, Oriental Mindoro, require access to science-based knowledge, particularly accurate weather and climate forecasts. The study emphasizes the need for reliable information and other agricultural-related climate services provided by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA). Such services can significantly contribute to improving decision-making processes at the farm level.

The US COVID-19 and Influenza Scenario Modeling Hubs: Delivering long-term projections to guide policy

Between December 2020 and April 2023, the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub (SMH) generated operational multi-month projections of COVID-19 burden in the US to guide pandemic planning and decision-making in the context of high uncertainty. This effort was born out of an attempt to coordinate, synthesize and effectively use the unprecedented amount of predictive modeling that emerged throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. Here we describe the history of this massive collective research effort, the process of convening and maintaining an open modeling hub active over multiple years, and attempt to provide a blueprint for future efforts. We detail the process of generating 17 rounds of scenarios and projections at different stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, and disseminating results to the public health community and lay public. We also highlight how SMH was expanded to generate influenza projections during the 2022–23 season. We identify key impacts of SMH results on public health and draw lessons to improve future collaborative modeling efforts, research on scenario projections, and the interface between models and policy.

The Retreat from ‘High Technology’ in Post-War Britain

Abstract This article argues that the 1970s saw an important change in the attitude of the British state to civil technological projects. It focuses on supersonic aviation and nuclear power policy as its case-studies, which were the key areas of techno-nationalist investment in the post-war period. It shows that Whitehall became radically more sceptical about state-led Research and Development, scrapped many core long-term projects, and cut back others. The politics and timing of this shift matter for our wider understanding of post-war British history, the history of technology, and histories of ‘neo-liberalism’. Thatcherism is supposed to have brought with it the decisive move away from industrial intervention by the state. Such a characterisation, while containing important truths, makes it difficult to see that the retreat from the most spectacular industrial investments of the British state in fact occurred during the 1970s in what was an economic liberalism from within, rather than a ‘neo-liberalism’ from without. This paper also challenges the narrative that the ‘technological disillusion’ of the 1970s came via the New Left and environmentalists, demonstrating the importance of an expert critique focused on economic and industrial arguments that emerged from inside the state itself.

Using Youth Participatory Action Research to Support BIPOC, Working Class, and Working Poor Elementary School Students' Conscientización

This talk draws together two decades of research designed to center BIPOC children as they discuss and continue to develop what a productive school culture means to them. All studies are presented to address a framework to better understand the process of change/conscientización as a theoretical guide. I engage two research questions: What are the characteristics of liked school places, and how do they differ from disliked places? and How does the developmental process of conscientización unfold (prospectively)? The first reserch question, based on a long-term collaboration at one elementary school, sets the stage for another long-term youth participatory action research project at another elementary school. The second research question is addressed through a series of studies where children decide how they want to make decisions as a group, how they discern a problem to focus on, and how this affects their relational empowerment in the school. Children’s critical consciousness and actions are highlighted across these studies.

Software Maintainability and Refactorings Prediction Based on Technical Debt Issues

Software maintainability is a crucial factor impacting cost, time and resource allocation for software development. Code refactorings greatly enhance code quality, readability, understandability and extensibility. Hence, accurate prediction methods for both maintainability and refactorings are vital for long-term project sustainability and success, offering substantial benefits to the software community as a whole. This article focuses on prediction of software maintainability and the number of needed code refactorings using technical debt data. Two approaches were explored, one compressing technical debt issues per software component and employing machine learning algorithms such as ExtraTrees, Random Forest, Decision Trees, which all obtained a high accuracy and performance. The second approach retained multiple debt issue entries and utilized a Recurrent Neural Network, although less effectively. In addition to the prediction of the requisite number of code refactorings and software maintainability for individual software components, a comprehensive analysis of technical debt issues was conducted before and after the refactoring process. The outcomes of this study contribute to the advancement of a dependable prediction system for maintainability and refactorings, presenting potential advantages to the software community in effectively managing maintenance resources. Of all the employed models, the ExtraTrees model yielded the most optimal predictive outcomes. To the best of our knowledge no other approaches of using ML techniques for this problem have been reported in the literarture. Keywords and phrases: Software Quality, Sonarqube, Refactoring, Code Smells.

СУЧАСНІ ФОРМИ СПІВПРАЦІ УКРАЇНИ З МІЖНАРОДНИМИ ФІНАНСОВИМИ ІНСТИТУТАМИ

In this article, the importance of modern forms of Ukraine’s cooperation with international financial institutions (IFSs) is discussed. The author systematised IFIs by classification criteria and looked into the main forms of financial cooperation between the government of Ukraine and IFIs. The analysis indicates that in today’s global economic system, the most common form of cooperation between governments and IFIs lies in lending. The structural and dynamic analysis of the forms of financial assistance from IFIs to Ukraine also confirmed this. The analysis of the cooperation between the Ukrainian government and IFIs also confirmed that loans from IFIs are the main source of long-term financing for socio-economic development projects in Ukraine’s priority sectors. Additionally, the author analyses the aspects of Ukraine’s cooperation with the IMF, the World Bank Group, and the IBRD, and identifies the areas of use of credit and investment resources in 2020-2023. Hence, the borrowed credit resources received by Ukraine from the IMF are used to service external debt, finance the budget deficit and deficits in the balance of payments and trade. In times of crisis for Ukraine’s economy, the IMF’s loans help replenish the NBU’s foreign exchange reserves, maintain the stability of the national currency, and optimize the monetary policy of the National Bank of Ukraine which stimulates lending to the real economy. Ukraine used the loan resources from the IFIs of the World Bank Group to cover the budget deficit, to implement institutional and structural reforms as well as long-term investment projects. The author also defines the importance and role of international technical assistance in the framework of Ukraine’s cooperation with IFIs, proving that international technical assistance is provided to Ukraine on a free and non-refundable basis by donor countries and international institutions. In conclusion, the author underlines the expected risks and necessity of this cooperation.

A climate-spatial matrix growth model for major tree species in Lesser Khingan Mountains and responses of forest dynamics change to different representative concentration path scenarios

IntroductionClimate change affects forest distribution, species composition, structure, and yield due to the sensitivity of forests to temperature, precipitation, and CO2. Therefore, for forest management decisions regarding climate change, it is crucial to explore the response of forest growth, mortality, and recruitment to future climate. We aimed to establish tree species’ responses by introducing variables such as climate, stand spatial structure parameters, and diversity indices.MethodsWe produced fixed parameter transition matrix model (FM), climate-sensitive matrix growth model (CM) and climate-spatial matrix growth model (SCM) using data from 786 plots collected during the 7th (2010), and 8th (2015), Chinese National Forest Inventories in Heilongjiang Province, and long-term predictive performance of CM, SCM, and FM were compared using same data. The models were compared using tenfold cross-validation and long-term predictive performance analysis. To predict the response of major tree species in the Lesser Khingan Mountains to three future climate change scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5).Results and discussionThe cross-validation results show small significant differences among the three models for short-term prediction (5 years), with the FM performing slightly better than the CM and the SCM. In contrast, for long-term projections (85 years), SCM outperformed FM and CM under three different RCPs, and SCM and CM under three representative concentration paths (RCPs), i.e., RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, suggesting that rather different dynamics are more reliable, since climatic factors are taken into account which may significantly affect forest dynamics, while changes in stand spatial structure also affect the sensitivity of trees to climate, especially in long-term prediction interval, the results of this paper may provide a theoretical basis for optimizing forest management strategies under climate change.

Cost Impact Comparative Analysis via BIM between Heritage Regular Maintenance Projects and Long-Term Restoration Projects—A Case Study

The financial implications of long-term restoration projects for cultural heritage, as compared to regular maintenance efforts, often underscore a flawed decision-making process. This can result from years of neglect versus consistent, organized maintenance. Striking a balance between these strategies is paramount for preserving cultural legacies. This research aims to evaluate the trade-offs between the initial expenditures of restoration initiatives and the consistent costs of maintenance activities. We leverage Building Information Modelling (BIM) and its specialized application for heritage preservation, known as Heritage Building Information Modelling (HBIM). This offers a digital depiction of the heritage building’s conservation state and associated intervention costs. Specifically, this study taps into the fifth dimension of BIM, cost estimation, to draw a comparative analysis between the financial ramifications of regular maintenance and long-term restoration projects. This assessment is exemplified through a case study on the “Aidkeen Al-Bendqdari Dome” located in historic Cairo, Egypt—a component of the Prince Taz Palace. The analysis integrates cost data to generate insights. The ultimate goal is to devise a comparative framework that can guide authorities in budgetary decisions and resource distribution.