Abstract
Global sea levels, having risen by approximately 20 cm since the mid-19th century, necessitate a critical examination of their impacts on shoreline dynamics. This research evaluates the historical (1985–2022) and future shoreline changes in Conde County, Paraíba State, Brazil, an area of significant touristic interest. Employing Landsat satellite imagery, the study utilized the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) and a Kalman filter algorithm for cloud removal, while also assessing land use and land cover changes using data from the MapBiomas Project for 2000, 2010, and 2020. These analyses informed projections of potential inundation under various sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios: 1, 2, 5, and 10 m. Key findings revealed a negative average coastline change rate of −0.27 m/year from 1985 to 2022, indicative of erosive trends likely accelerated by human activities. Long-term projections for 2032 and 2042 anticipate continued erosion in areas identified as highly vulnerable. The SLR scenario analysis underscores the urgent need for adaptive climate measures; while a 1- or 2-meter SLR presents limited immediate effects, a 5-meter rise could lead to significant inundation across key sectors, including urban and agricultural landscapes. The projected severity of a 10-meter SLR necessitates immediate, comprehensive interventions to safeguard both natural and human systems.
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