Long-term Projection Research Articles

Long-term Projection of Wind Potential in the China Seas

Gao, C.; Zheng, C.W.; Zhang, G.; Han, Y.; Tian, F.; Liu, X.; Wang, L.; Zhang, D., and Xiao, Z., 2020. Long-term projection of wind potential in the China seas. In: Zheng, C.W.; Wang, Q.; Zhan, C., and Yang, S.B. (eds.), Air-Sea Interaction and Coastal Environments of the Maritime and Polar Silk Roads. Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 99, pp. 396–403. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208.This study conducts the mid-long term predictions and assesses the multi-year average offshore wind energy in the China seas for the next five years based on CMIP5 wind data, in hope of providing reference for the long term prediction of wind energy. Results show that (1) large areas with multi-year average wind power densities (WPD) greater than 350 W/m2 are mainly found throughout the Ryukyu Islands and the Taiwan and Luzon Straits in the southeastern area of the Indo-China Peninsula. (2) From 2015-2019, the WPD in the Bohai Sea, Taiwan Strait and Beibu Gulf will be lower than the multi-year average level and thus will be similar to the multi-year average in the Yellow Sea and Gulf of Thailand but greater than the multi-year average in the East China Sea and South China Sea. (3) The predicted occurrences of exploitable wind speeds of the East China Sea and South China Sea are promising for the next five years, exceeding 60%. A value above 40% is predicted for the Yellow Sea, and a lower value is anticipated for the Bohai Sea. (4) The predicted occurrences of WPD > 50 W/m2 are more promising for the next five years.

Population Aging and Public Finances: Evidence from El Salvador

Abstract This paper analyses the impact of population aging on the demand for social resources in El Salvador and discusses the implications in terms of public finances. The empirical contribution of the paper is twofold: first, an estimation of the fiscal dividend is presented to highlight the importance for El Salvador of adopting fiscal policies in the short and medium term in a context of demographic transition; second, a long-term budget projection is produced to assess how population aging will put pressure on government budgets. The paper shows that with the combination of reasonable fiscal policies aimed at increasing revenues and reducing expenditures, El Salvador could cut by almost a half the hypothetical debt burden resulting from not adopting fiscal measures to affront the demographic change. The results emphasize the importance for Latin American developing countries of exploring different fiscal policies to ensure the sustainability of public finances in the medium and long term.

Growth projections against set-target of renewable energy and resultant impact on emissions reduction in India

In accordance with the Paris Climate Agreement (COP21) and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), India is greatly focused on deployment of renewable energy (RE) for supplementing the energy requirements of the country. The present article assesses the validity of the promises offered by RE technologies in India and its necessary action to understand the gap between setting goals and the ground situation, which can also show a pathway to other developing countries. Therefore, the long-term projection perspectives on RE growth have been made using the India Energy Security Scenario-2047. In order to achieve the set target for emissions reduction of greenhouse gases (GHGs) i.e., 1209 MT CO2e in support of SDGs to the 2005 level by 2030, three renewable growth scenarios have been tested for transitioning the Indian energy system. Accordingly, the regression analysis reveals that the most desirable growth scenario will require a steady rise of RE contribution in the overall energy mix of India by 2030 from the current ~21% to 68% of the installed capacity. In this view, the present study highlights the exploration of new alternatives in long-term energy planning, and less on one-sided scenario to achieve the emissions’ reduction target.

Radioactive investigation of Malaysia’s building materials containing NORM and potential radiological risks analysis using RESRAD-BUILD computer code

ABSTRACTThe activity concentrations of natural radionuclides from 80 samples of Malaysia’s building materials sourced from either manufacturers or local suppliers were studied using high-purity germanium (HPGe) detector. The radiological hazards associated with building materials under study were evaluated by calculating radium equivalent activity (Raeq). The calculated values of Raeq range from 29.7 ± 0.9 to 564.8 ± 13.6 Bq kg−1 with an overall average value of 198.1 ± 98.5 Bq kg−1. The calculated activity concentrations of 226Ra, 232Th and 40 K were further subjected to RESRAD-BUILD computer code with a view to determine long-term indoor external and internal doses received by a dweller from zero to 70 years. A significant variation in the indoor doses from zero to 30 years was observed while a relatively constant behaviour was observed from 30 to 70 years. The assessment of the indoor doses also showed that the indoor doses from walls are significantly high compared with indoor doses from the room floor. The calculated Raeq and long-term projection of indoor doses received by the dweller was below the recommended maximum values of 370 Bq kg−1 and 1000 µSv y−1, respectively. Therefore, the potential radiological hazards associated with building materials under study are negligible.

Trends and Prospects of Development of the Oil and Gas Sector in the Context of Digitalization

The modern oil and gas industry is heavily dependent on the processes and trends driven by the accelerating digitalization of the economy. Thus, the digitalization of the oil and gas sector has become Russia’s top priority, which involves a technological and structural transformation of all production processes and stages.Aim. The presented study aims to identify the major trends and prospects of development of the Russian oil and gas sector in the context of its digitalization and formation of the digital economy.Tasks. The authors analyze the major trends in the development of the oil and gas industry at a global scale and in Russia with allowance for the prospects of accelerated exploration of the Arctic; determine the best practices of implementation of digital technologies by oil and gas companies as well as the prospects and obstacles for the subsequent transfer of digital technologies to the Russian oil and gas industry.Methods. This study uses general scientific methods, such as analysis, synthesis, and scientific generalization.Results. Arctic hydrocarbons will become increasingly important to Russia in the long term, and their exploration and production will require the implementation of innovative technologies. Priority directions for the development of many oil and gas producers will include active application of digital technologies as a whole (different types of robots that could replace people in performing complex procedures), processing and analysis of big data using artificial intelligence to optimize processes, particularly in the field of exploration and production, processing and transportation. Digitalization of the oil and gas sector is a powerful factor in the improvement of the efficiency of the Russian economy. However, Russian companies are notably lagging behind in this field of innovative development and there are problems and high risks that need to be overcome to realize its potential for business and society.Conclusions. Given the strategic importance of the oil and gas industry for Russia, its sustainable development and national security, it is recommendable to focus on the development and implementation of digital technologies. This is crucial for the digitalization of long-term projection and strategic planning, assessment of the role and place of Russia and its largest energy companies in the global market with allowance for a maximum number of different internal and external factors.

Facing Future Water Scarcity in the Duero-Douro Basin: Comparative Effect of Policy Measures on Irrigation Water Availability

AbstractThis study presents an analysis of possible policy measures to face water scarcity for agriculture in a long-term climate projection (2070–2100). Water availability was computed with the Wa...

Risk to Residential Property Values from Climate Change-Related Flooding Hazards: A Mixed Methods Approach

Greater South Dunedin (GSD) has been identified as one of the most vulnerable areas to Climate Change-Related Flooding Hazards (CCRFH) in New Zealand, yet little is known about the magnitude of how CCRFH will impact property values. We address this issue by proposing a novel modelling strategy that links CCRFH, and in particular Sea Level Rise (SLR), to of residential property value, at fine geographical resolution. The strategy is both empirical and forward looking modelling. The empirical analysis reveals a significant negative price effect for houses associated with flooding risks in the local market (between 5.9% and 3.1%), which existed prior to the June 2015 South Dunedin flood and was exacerbated temporarily after this event. The forward modelling projections apply a “bathtub fill” approach to elevation data in a Geographical Information System (GIS) to identify the properties that will be inundated (using IPCC scenarios to 2100). Uncertainties arising from data error and long-term projection are modelled through Monte Carlo simulation. We find that, the risks of permanent inundation are currently limited and only become non-negligible in a “business-as-usual” pathway. The risks of periodic flooding, however, are strikingly large across all scenarios in the presence of extreme events. With high tides, the number of inundated properties may be as high as 39%. With extreme rainfalls, this number potentially increases to 41%. Taken together, CCFRH may affect property worth up to NZ$ 983 million in rateable value (37% of GSD property market). We conclude by acknowledging the limitations of our “bathtub fill” approach.

Long-Term Projection of Renewable Energy Technology Diffusion

The EU aims at increasing the use of renewable energy sources (RES), mainly solar-photovoltaic (PV) and wind technologies. Projecting the future, in this respect, requires a long-term energy modeling which includes a rate of diffusion of novel technologies into the market and the prediction of their costs. The aim of this article has been to project the pace at which RES technologies diffused in the past or may diffuse in the future across the power sector. This analysis of the dynamics of technologies historically as well as in modeling, roadmaps and scenarios consists in a consistent analysis of the main parameters of the dynamics (pace of diffusion and extent of diffusion in particular markets). Some scenarios (REMIND, WITCH, WEO, PRIMES) of the development of the selected power generation technologies in the EU till 2050 are compared. Depending on the data available, the learning curves describing the expected development of PV and wind technologies till 2100 have been modeled. The learning curves have been presented as a unit cost of the power versus cumulative installed capacity (market size). As the production capacity increases, the cost per unit is reduced thanks to learning how to streamline the manufacturing process. Complimentary to these learning curves, logistic S-shape functions have been used to describe technology diffusion. PV and wind generation technologies for the EU have been estimated in time domain till 2100. The doubts whether learning curves are a proper method of representing technological change due to various uncertainties have been discussed. A critical analysis of effects of the commonly applied models for a long-term energy projection (REMIND, WITCH) use has been conducted. It has been observed that for the EU the analyzed models, despite differences in the target saturation levels, predict stagnation in the development of PV and wind technologies from around 2040. Key results of the analysis are new insights into the plausibility of future deployment scenarios in different sectors, informed by the analysis of historical dynamics of technology diffusion, using to the extent possible consistent metrics.

P2882Sustainable organization of a management model for CIED remote control: data from a single tertiary center

Abstract Introduction The remote control (RC) of CIED has become necessary, though the human resources and technical facilities needed are limited. In most of Centers, the ratio of RC CIED /CIED with in-office follow up, is continuously increasing and is expected to reach the 100% of CIED remotely controlled. We sought assess an organizational model based on available facilities and a long-term projection of RC data burden. Pacemakers, ICD and implantable loop recorders were considered. Methods The total population served by the Hospital area has been obtained (271.260 citizens), timed at December 31st 2014. By checking our Hospital data files, the total number of followed up CIED patients timed at January 1st 2011 (3995; 1.47% of all population), was compared with the same data timed at January 1st 2015 (3902; 1.43% of all population), in order to the check for the “stability” of that data over time. At the analyzed time 1582/3902 (40,5%) of CIED were followed by RC. We have then considered an yearly average of 465 CIEDs implanted/replaced (yearly implants 2012 to 2015) and excluded a roughly 10% of them because not provided of RC facilities (unwilling patients or CIED not RC “ready”); all the other patients were provided with RC. On these basis, we can assume a ratio of RC CIEDs /non-RC CIED, deemed to increase by 10 to 11% per year, to reach the break-even of 100% of RC CIEDs, in 2021 (projection). The number of RC transmissions (Tx) have been gathered in 5 types of events (Fig. left upper). The timing of RC patient managing from opening the CIED web site to complete patient file assessment (RC file analysis) performed by expert nurses, was arbitrarily calculated over a sample of 10 Tx per day in 3 different days. Results Of 3902 CIED patient, 1582 (40.5%) were RC followed up (3261 pacemakers, 594 ICDs and 47 implantable loop recorder); the CIED brands were represented as follows: Medtronic 685 (43.3%); St. Jude 180 (11.4%), Boston Sc. 330 (20.8%), Biotronik 318 (20.1%) and Livanova (previously SorinGroup) 69 (4.4%). During the year 2015 we received a total number of 10396 Tx: 128 (1.2%) red alert; 1944 (18.6%) yellow alert, 141 (1.3%) atrial fibrillation; 403 (3.9%) lost Tx (disconnected transmitters or un-compliant patients for remote interrogation) and 7780 (75%) Tx “OK” with NO events. (Fig. right upper). The projection model at 2021 with 100% RC patients (break-even) shows a total 25990 Tx: 320 red alert; 1944 yellow alert, 352 atrial fibrillation; 1007 lost Tx and 19459 Tx “OK”. The 2021 monthly Tx would be 2320 (26 red alert; 405 yellow alert, 29 atrial fibrillation; 91 lost Tx and 1769 (75%) Tx “OK”) (Fig. both lower panels) The RC file analysis was roughly calculated around 3 minutes (116 hours/month); 5.8 hours/business day (Monday–Friday). Conclusion The rate of RC followed up CIEDs will inexorably increase by time. The projection management model presented could help to build a sustainable organization.

Assessing the distribution and drivers of mangrove dieback in Kakadu National Park, northern Australia

Satellite observations of Australia's Gulf of Carpentaria between 1987 and 2015 highlighted that many mangroves on the coastline bounding low-lying plains were progressively extending inland and to a lesser extent, in a seaward direction. However, in 2015/16, a significant and widely publicised mangrove dieback event occurred, this was attributed to a combination of climate (temperature, precipitation anomalies) and a ~20–30 cm decline in sea level. A similar but unreported event also occurred in Kakadu National Park (NP) in the Northern Territory. This study aimed to a) quantify the extent of this dieback in the NP, b) establish the characteristics of mangroves (floristics, structure) and the substrate elevation prior to and following event and c) establish links with climate and sea level. Using time-series of high resolution airborne and Unmanned Airborne Vehicle (UAV) data, the majority of mangroves experiencing full or partial dieback were found to occur on the landward margins. Reference to sea-level data indicated that mangroves had colonised and retreated in unison with sea level fluctuations over previous decades but increased in overall extent and cover as sea level rise dominated. Mangroves experiencing full mortality were located on higher elevation substrates where the sea level/tidal influence was least. The study concluded that whilst short-term ENSO-related sea level may result in dieback in northern Australia, the long-term projection of an increase in sea level is anticipated to lead to extension of mangroves in the landward direction.

Comparison of New Models to Predict Prices and Stock Returns

Some financial professionals proposed 20th-century patterns for share price forecasting and decision-making. The primary goal of this course is to create a pricing behavior chart and analyze inflations. Recognize the sensitivities of long-term behavior and future projection. Technical analysts or chartists are members of this group. Since they relied on graphs and curves and held that supply and demand are influenced by a wide range of circumstances, they were never able to identify them correctly. The best way to find patterns is to analyze price time series and data related to transaction volume. By analyzing price past trends and historical data, we can predict share prices in the future and recognize share future price movement. This group thought that fundamental analysis should only be used for short-term opportunities and wasn't the right scale for identifying share price behavior.

Evaluation of the Vertical Movement of Ribeiro's Dermolipoglandular Mammary Flap One Year After Mammaplasties in Post-Bariatric Patients.

In 1971, Ribeiro isolated a segment in the inferior pole of the ptotic breast, nourished by muscular perforating vessels, and moved it cranially to the posterior region of the remaining detached breast tissue, where it was fixed to the pectoral fascia. This maneuver created a flap with autologous implant function, independent from the rest of the breast's support, that maintained long-term mammary projection. The objectives of this study were to measure the vertical movement of this flap 1 year after mammaplasty and to evaluate the factors involved. The sample included 13 patients who had previously undergone bariatric surgery. The position of a titanium marker attached to the Ribeiro flap was compared on chest radiographs taken 1 day and 1 year after the mammaplasty. The significance level was set at 5%. All of the titanium markers moved 0.6 cm to 4.1 cm caudally during the study period (average, 2.4 cm ± 1.02 cm). The greater the weight loss after the plastic surgery, the further the marker's descent. Weight loss between bariatric surgery and plastic surgery, the vertical dimension of the ptotic breast tissue immediately before plastic surgery, the vertical extent of the nipple-areola complex elevation during mammaplasty, the Ribeiro flap thickness and volume, and the breast volume after mammaplasty were not associated with the vertical movement of the flap. The Ribeiro flap employed in mammaplasty of patients who previously underwent bariatric surgery undergoes ptosis that is exacerbated by weight loss after mammaplasty.

Strattice reconstructive tissue matrix to maintain nipple projection—what do patients think?

One of the main challenges in nipple reconstruction is achieving and maintaining nipple projection. We describe a novel use of banked Strattice to provide an internal scaffold and improve long-term projection following nipple reconstruction. We assess patient and partner satisfaction with the technique compared with routine reconstruction. All patients who underwent nipple reconstruction in our unit by a single surgeon between 1/1/11 and 29/4/16 were identified retrospectively and asked to complete a satisfaction questionnaire relating specifically to their reconstruction. Those who underwent reconstruction with Strattice were compared with those that had local flaps alone. Sixty-four patients and 73 nipples were reconstructed during the study period. Eighteen nipples were reconstructed on 14 patients using Strattice. Fifty-seven patients responded to the questionnaire (90.5%). One patient developed an infection requiring removal of the banked matrix. Patients had a statistically significant increased degree of satisfaction when Strattice was used to augment their reconstruction (Mean ± SEM score 8.06 ± 0.20 versus 5.83 ± 0.16 for no Strattice; p < 0.0001). This was also the case when undressed (7.59 ± 0.15 vs 5.69 ± 0.16) but did not reach statistical significance when the patient was dressed (6.85 ± 0.19 vs 6.44 ± 0.11; p = 0.08). Patients’ partners also rated the reconstruction more highly when Strattice was used (7.71 ± 0.14 versus 6.33 ± 0.19 for no Strattice). Our study demonstrates that the use of Strattice in nipple reconstruction can lead to significantly increased rates of satisfaction among women undergoing the final stage of breast reconstruction. Level of Evidence: III Therapeutic study.

Long-Term Regional Environmental Risk Assessment and Future Scenario Projection at Ningbo, China Coupling the Impact of Sea Level Rise

Regional environmental risk (RER) denotes potential threats to the natural environment, human health and socioeconomic development caused by specific risks. It is valuable to assess long-term RER in coastal areas with the increasing effects of global change. We proposed a new approach to assess coastal RER considering spatial factors using principal component analysis (PCA) and used a future land use simulation (FLUS) model to project future RER scenarios considering the impact of sea level rise (SLR). In our study, the RER status was classified in five levels as highest, high, medium, low and lowest. We evaluated the 30 m × 30 m gridded spatial pattern of the long-term RER at Ningbo of China by assessing its 1975–2015 history and projecting this to 2020–2050. Our results show that RER at Ningbo has increased substantially over the past 40 years and will slowly increase over the next 35 years. Ningbo’s city center and district centers are exposed to medium-to-highest RER, while the suburban areas are exposed to lowest-to-medium lower RER. Storm surges will lead to strong RER increases along the Ningbo coast, with the low-lying northern coast being more affected than the mountainous southern coast. RER at Ningbo is affected principally by the combined effects of increased human activity, rapid population growth, rapid industrialization, and unprecedented urbanization. This study provides early warnings to support practical regulation for disaster mitigation and environmental protection.

Trends and projections of cancer mortality in Osaka, Japan from 1977 to 2032.

Projecting cancer mortality is fundamental to the process of planning cancer control. Although the prefecture is one of the main units for the implementation and evaluation of cancer control in Japan, a long-term detailed future projection of cancer mortality has not been conducted by prefecture. The main objective of this paper is to estimate the future number of cancer deaths in Osaka prefecture. Projections were made using the Nordpred model to estimate future trends in cancer mortality. The projected age-standardized mortality rate decreased by 24.5% in males and 16.8% in females from 2012-16 to 2032-36. However, the number of deaths showed a small decrease in males (1.3%) and an increase in females (13.1%). The largest contributor to the increasing number of cancer deaths is the aging population. In Japan, cancer control programmes are implemented by prefecture; our report can therefore be used for prefecture-level cancer control planning.

Tax and Spending in the 2020s

Tax and Spending in the 2020s

Safe delayed procedure of nipple reconstruction in poorly circulated nipple.

Nipple-areolar complex reconstruction represents the final step in breast reconstruction. However, there is no gold standard nipple reconstruction technique that addresses the issue of blood circulation in the flap, which is the most basic complication. Nipple reconstruction was performed in 21 patients. A delayed procedure was performed when a poor outcome was expected due to marginal pinpoint bleeding in the distal tip after flap elevation during nipple reconstruction. The delayed nipple reconstruction can be viewed as a safe and reliable method for improving nipple blood circulation, reducing complications, and enabling long-term nipple projection maintenance in high-risk patients.

Global biodegradable plastics market report 2018: forecast to 2023 featuring NatureWorks, BASF, Total Corbion PLA, Mitsubishi Chemical, and Biome Bioplastics

This paper analyzes the future market perspectives for biodegradable bio-based plastics at the global and the European level. Relevant determinants of demand are identified, categorized, and used as a basis for own projections. By implementing a system dynamics approach, the evolution of global production capacities is modelled on an annual basis for the period until 2030. To capture the inherent uncertainty in such a long-term projection, different scenarios are defined and applied to the model, reflecting different developments in GDP growth, oil, and bioplastic feedstock prices. In this way, our results document the sensitivity of the bioplastics market towards changes in the macroeconomic environment. The simulations are complemented by a discussion of the relevant regulatory framework at the European level and its potential repercussions on market growth. The results indicate a significant growth potential, which however turns out to be very sensitive towards both economic and political impact factors.

Slow recovery from a disease epidemic in the spotted hyena, a keystone social carnivore

Predicting the impact of disease epidemics on wildlife populations is one of the twenty-first century’s main conservation challenges. The long-term demographic responses of wildlife populations to epidemics and the life history and social traits modulating these responses are generally unknown, particularly for K-selected social species. Here we develop a stage-structured matrix population model to provide a long-term projection of demographic responses by a keystone social predator, the spotted hyena, to a virulent epidemic of canine distemper virus (CDV) in the Serengeti ecosystem in 1993/1994 and predict the recovery time for the population following the epidemic. Using two decades of longitudinal data from 625 known hyenas, we demonstrate that although the reduction in population size was moderate, i.e., the population showed high ecological ‘resistance’ to the novel CDV genotype present, recovery was slow. Interestingly, high-ranking females accelerated the population’s recovery, thereby lessening the impact of the epidemic on the population.

Simulating future climate projection under HadCM3 GCM scenarios on a tropical karst island using SDSM: A case study of tropical karst catchment in Rote Island, Indonesia

A robust assessment on the impact of climate change at regional atmospheric condition is crucial to ensure the sustainability of groundwater resource for tropical karst island, where water is considered relatively scarce and thus important for the community. In this study, future long-term climate projection under HadCM3 global model climate (GCM) scenarios for a period of 2020-2090 is validated and simulated, using input data of weather variables downscaled by Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM). The simulation indicated that the climate variables, i.e. temperature and rainfall, are expected to be affected by climate change and generally vary over the period under the scenarios. The rainfall is estimated to slightly raise by 0.14% and 0.09% under H3A2a and H3B2a scenarios, respectively. Steady temperature increases by 1.89-2.16% (Tmax) and 1.05-1.59 % (Tavg) and a decrease of 0.73-0.76% were predictable for all scenarios.