Long-term Predictors Research Articles

Combined Liver Transplant and Cardiac Surgery: Long-Term Outcomes and Predictors of Success.

We aim to report our institutional outcomes of single-staged combined liver transplantation (LT) and cardiac surgery (CS). Concurrent LT and CS is a potential treatment for combined cardiac dysfunction and end-stage liver disease, yet only 54 cases have been previously reported in the literature. Thus, the outcomes of this approach are relatively unknown, and this approach has been previously regarded as extremely risky. Thirty-one patients at our institution underwent combined cardiac surgery and liver transplant. Patients with at least one-year follow-up were included. The Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation (LOOCV) machine-learning approach was used to generate a model for mortality. Median follow-up was 8.2 years (IQR 4.6-13.6y). One- and five-year survival was 74.2% (N=23) and 55% (N=17), respectively. Negative predictive factors of survival included recipient age>60 years (P=0.036), NASH-cirrhosis (P=0.031), Coronary Artery Bypass-Graft (CABG)-based CS (P=0.046) and pre-operative renal dysfunction (P=0.024). The final model demonstrated that renal dysfunction had a relative weighted impact of 3.2 versus CABG (1.7), age ≥60y (1.7) or NASH (1.3). Elevated LT+CS risk score was associated with an increased five-year mortality after surgery (AUC=0.731, P=<0.001). Conversely, the widely accepted STS-PROM calculator was unable to successfully stratify patients according to 1- (P>0.99) or 5-year (P=0.695) survival rates. This is the largest series describing combined LT+CS, with joint surgical management appearing feasible in highly selected patients. CABG and pre-operative renal dysfunction are important negative predictors of mortality. The four-variable LT+CS score may help predict patients at high risk for post-operative mortality.

Long-Term Risk of Stroke After Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement: Insights From the SwissTAVI Registry

BackgroundStroke after transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) is associated with considerable morbidity and mortality. Predictors of stroke and the long-term risk after TAVR remain incompletely understood. ObjectivesThe authors sought to investigate the short- and long-term incidence and predictors of stroke after TAVR in the SwissTAVI Registry. MethodsBetween February 2011 and June 2021, consecutive patients undergoing TAVR were included. Standardized stroke ratios (SSRs) were calculated to compare trends in stroke of TAVR patients with an age- and sex-matched general population in Switzerland derived from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease study. ResultsA total of 11,957 patients (81.8 ± 6.5 years of age, 48.0% female) were included. One-third of the patients (32.3%) had a history of atrial fibrillation, and 11.8% had a history of cerebrovascular accident. The cumulative 30-day incidence rate of stroke was 3.0%, with 69% of stroke events occurring within the first 48 hours after TAVR. The incidence of stroke was 4.3% at 1 year, and 7.8% at 5 years. Compared with an age- and sex-adjusted general population, the risk of stroke was significantly higher in the TAVR population during the first 2 years after TAVR: first year: SSR 7.26 (95% CI: 6.3-8.36) and 6.82 (95% CI: 5.97-7.79) for males and females, respectively; second year: SSR 1.98 (95% CI: 1.47-2.67) and 1.48 (95% CI: 1.09-2.02) for males and females, respectively; but returned to a comparable level to that observed in the matched population thereafter. ConclusionsCompared with an age- and sex-matched population, TAVR patients experienced a higher risk of stroke for up to 2 years after the procedure, and a comparable risk thereafter. (SwissTAVI Registry; NCT01368250)

Long-term survival following cytoreductive surgery and hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy in Waikato, Aotearoa New Zealand: a 12-year experience.

Cytoreductive surgery (CRS) and hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy (HIPEC) have improved survival for selected cases of peritoneal surface malignancy. In 2008, a CRS/HIPEC service was first established in Aotearoa New Zealand (AoNZ) at Waikato and Braemar Hospitals in the Waikato region. This is a retrospective review of a prospectively maintained database of all patients undergoing CRS/HIPEC from 1 January 2008 to 1 November 2020 at Waikato and Braemar Hospitals. We analysed long-term survival and predictors of survival for each tumour type. 240 procedures were performed for 221 patients, including 22 re-do procedures. Cases had a median peritoneal cancer index of 16. Complete cytoreduction (CC0-1) was achieved in 196 cases (81.7%). All complete cytoreduction cases received HIPEC. There were 152 pseudomyxoma peritonei (PMP), 39 colorectal cancers (CRC), 29 appendiceal cancers, eight ovarian cancers, six peritoneal mesotheliomas, and six other cancers. The 5-year overall survival (OS) for PMP with acellular mucin, low-grade mucinous carcinoma peritonei, and high-grade mucinous carcinoma peritonei with or without signet cells were 91.6%, 80.5%, and 72.2%, respectively. 2- and 5-year OS in CRC were 56.7% and 40.4%. The achievement of complete cytoreduction improved the 5-year OS to 87.9% across all PMP and 45.1% in colorectal cancer. Incomplete cytoreduction predicted worse survival in appendiceal PMP. In colorectal cancer, worse survival was predicted in those who had incomplete cytoreduction, liver metastasis, and presentation with obstruction and perforation. Favourable long-term outcomes following CRS/HIPEC for peritoneal surface malignancy have been achieved in AoNZ through the Waikato peritonectomy service.

Adolescent Predictors of Firearm Suicide Over Four Decades of Life in U.S. Men

There are meager individual-level data on long-term predictors of firearm suicide. This was an analysis of males (N=189,558) in the Project Talent cohort, a national probability sample of high school schools in 1960 when students completed a baseline Project Talent self-report inventory. Mortality follow-up was contingent on survival until 1979, the onset of the National Death Index when the cohort had a mean age of 35.7 years. Mortality follow-up continued until death or age 75 years, reached by all surviving members by 2018. Analyses were conducted in 2022, with the main outcome being firearm suicide deaths (n=479). Factor analyses of Project Talent items yielded three key factors: (1) interests in firearm-related professions (i.e., military service, police force), (2) interests in hunting or fishing and knowledge of long guns, and (3) stereotypic masculinity. Survival analyses showed that long-term risk for firearm suicide was associated with 1-SD increases in firearm-related vocational interests in adolescence (adjusted hazard ratio [95% CI]=1.23 [1.09, 1.40]) and masculinity (adjusted hazard ratio [95% CI]=1.15 [1.04, 1.28]). Decreased long-term firearm suicide risk was associated with increased hunting interests and knowledge of long guns in adolescence (adjusted hazard ratio [95% CI]=0.86 [0.77, 0.96]) and competitive sports participation, an exploratory variable (adjusted hazard ratio [95% CI]=0.89 [0.80, 0.99]). Prevention efforts are needed to lower long-term firearm suicide risk among adolescent males with high stereotypic masculinity and those interested in military or police service. Potential protective effects of competitive sports participation and socialization to long guns through hunting require further study.

Long-term and real-life incidence of cancer therapy-related cardiovascular toxicity in patients with breast cancer: a swedish cohort study

Abstract Background Cancer treatment and cancer itself increase the risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD) which in its turn contributes to cancer therapy-related cardiovascular toxicity (CTR-CVT). The aim of this study was to evaluate the long-term risk and predictors of CTR-CVT as well as all-cause mortality in women diagnosed with early breast cancer (BC) who were candidates for adjuvant chemotherapy. Methods Data from 433 women aged 18-60 years who were diagnosed with lymph node-positive BC between 1998-2002 and were eligible for adjuvant chemotherapy, were collected from Swedish health registers and medical records. For this study CTR-CVT was defined as hypertension (HT), coronary artery disease (CAD), heart failure (HF) or atrial fibrillation (AF) after the diagnosis of BC. Follow-up was from the date of BC diagnosis until November 30, 2021, or death. The incidence of CTR-CVT and all-cause mortality were calculated and hazard ratios (HR) for various factors associated with CTR-CVT were determined. Results The median age of the study population was 50 years (interquartile range (IQR) 32 years). A total of 910 CTR-CVT events were diagnosed in 311 women with a median of 19.3 years of follow-up (IQR 15.3 years). The proportions of CTR-CVT events were as follows: HT 281 (64%); CAD 198 (46%); HF 206 (47%); and AF 225 (51%). The cumulative incidence of CTR-CVT was 71.8% and 50% of all 433 patients developed CTR-CVT within 11.7 years of BC diagnosis (standard deviation (SD) 0.57, 95% confidence interval (CI) 10.6-12.9). Age was a risk factor for CTR-CVT. Treatment with anthracyclines increased the risk for HF (p=0.001; HR 2.0; 95%CI 1.4-2.8), CAD (p= 0.002; HR 1.7; 95% CI 1.2-2.4), and AF (p=0.013; HR 1.5; 95%CI 1.0-2.0). At the end of the 24-year study period, 227 of the 433 women were alive and the total cumulative mortality was 47.6%. Chemotherapy (anthracyclines or other agent) and older age at the time of BC diagnosis were associated with higher mortality rate. Conclusions In this cohort study the incidence of CTR-CVT and all-cause mortality after BC diagnosis and treatment was high, particularly in older patients and those receiving anthracyclines. This finding together with the time to onset of CTR-CVT, supports the current cardio-oncology guidelines recommending initial risk stratification, cardiovascular monitoring during treatment, followed by long-term annual screening for cardiovascular risk factors and CTR-CVT among BC survivors.Incidence CTR-CVTSurvival rate

Long-term efficacy and predictors of pembrolizumab-based regimens in patients with advanced esophageal cancer in the real world

Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) has as a main characteristic the exacerbation of the immune system against enterocytes, compromising the individual’s intestinal microbiota. This inflammatory cascade causes several nutritional deficiencies, which further compromise immunological functioning and, as a result, worsen the prognosis. This vicious cycle can be interrupted as the patient’s dietary pattern meets their needs according to their clinical condition, acting directly on the inflammatory process of IBD through the interaction of food, intestinal microbiota, and epigenome. Specific nutritional intervention for IBD has a crucial role in preventing and managing disease activity. This review addresses epigenetic modifications through dietary compounds as a mechanism for modulating the intestinal microbiota of patients with IBD.

Abstract 14503: Chemokine Ligand 18 (CCL18) is a Long-Term Predictor of All-Cause Mortality, but Did Not Predict CVD Events

Introduction: Chemokines mediate leukocyte recruitment and activation. Chemokine ligand 18 (CCL18) is mainly expressed by a broad range of cells such as monocytes/macrophages and dendritic cells. It is highly expressed in chronic inflammatory diseases, and locally in atherosclerotic plaques, particularly at sites of reduced stability. Circulating CCL18 levels are transiently elevated in patients admitted with unstable angina pectoris, but data on myocardial infarction (MI) are scarce. Aim: To assess the utility of CCL18 as a prognostic marker of CVD in patients hospitalized for chest pain of suspected coronary origin. Methods: The population consisted of 871 consecutive patients (ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00521976). Stepwise Cox regression models, applying continuous log e -transformed values, were fitted for each of the biomarkers with all-cause mortality and cardiac death within 24-months and all-cause mortality within median 7 years (y) as the dependent variables, adding an analysis of 1) all-cause mortality or MI, and 2) all-cause mortality or MI or stroke at 7 y follow up (FU). The hazard ratio (HR) (95% CI) was assessed in a univariate and multivariable model, adjusting for traditional clinical cardiovascular risk factors, adding BNP, hsCRP, and TnT. Results: Plasma samples from 849 patients were available. By 24 months FU, 138 (15.8%) patients had died; 86 were cardiac deaths. The univariate analysis showed a positive, significant association between CCL18 and total death [HR 1.55 (95% 1.30-1.83), p=0.000], and for cardiac death [HR 1.32 (95% 1.06-1.64), p=0.013]. Applying multivariable analysis, the associations were no longer significant. At 7 y FU, a total of 332 (38.1%) patients had died. After multivariable adjustment, CLL18 was independently associated with all-cause mortality [HR 1.14 (95% CI, 1.01-1.29), p=0.030], but not for MI (n=203) or stroke (n=55). The positive association between CCL18 and all-cause mortality was lost when combined with CVD events; all-cause mortality or MI (n=404, p=0.75), and all-cause mortality or MI or stroke (n=422, p=0.79). Conclusions: CCL18 predicts long-term all-cause mortality, but had no independent prognostic bearing on short-term cardiac death and CVD events during long-term FU.

Abstract 11695: Long-Term Clinical Outcomes of Minimally Invasive Aortic Valve Surgery in Patients With Aortic Valve Disease

Introduction: We aim to analyze multicenter long-term clinical outcomes of minimally invasive aortic valve replacement (MI-AVR) in patients with aortic valve disease. Hypothesis: We hypothesize that MI-AVR provides good long-term clinical outcomes in patients undergoing aortic valve surgery. Methods: All consecutive 1,972 patients undergoing MI-AVR with either ministernotomy (n= 986) or right anterior minithoracotomy (RAM, n=986) between 1999 and 2019, were included. Primary outcomes were all-cause mortality and cardiac death. Results: Preoperatively, mean age was 72.1 (±13.7) year-old, and mean STS-PROM risk score was 0.38%. Intraoperatively, mean operative time (min) was 213.97 (± 56.9), while 313 (15.9%) patients were converted to full sternotomy. Postoperatively, 69 (3.5%) patients had prolonged mechanical ventilation (&lt; 24 hours), 59 (3%) patients had re-exploration for bleeding, 10 (0.5%) patients had paravalvular leak (moderate/severe), 22 (1.1%) patients had non-fatal stroke, and 28 (1.4%) patients had non-fatal myocardial infarction. Mean intensive care unit stay was 14.45 (± 10.15) hours, and mean hospital length of stay (LOS) was 7 (± 3.5) days. Thirty-day all-cause mortality occurred in 39 (2%) patients while 30-day cardiac-death occurred in 23 (1.2%) patients. Thirty-day predictors for all-cause mortality included age &lt;75-years, post-operative LOS, peri-operative stroke, and RAM. Mean follow-up time was 10-years. At 20-year follow-up, all-cause death and CV-death incidence were 1156 (60%) and 170 (8.8%) patients, respectively. Valve-related deaths occurred in 33 (1.7%) patients. Long-term predictors for all-cause mortality included age &lt;75-years, chronic kidney failure, mechanical ventilation &lt;12 hours, RAM, and hospital LOS &lt;10 days. Conclusions: MI-AVR is a safe, valid, and reproducible surgical procedure for patients with aortic valve disease. In addition, it provides good long-term outcomes.

Polyvascular Disease Influences Long-Term Cardiovascular Morbidity in Carotid Endarterectomy

Introduction/ObjectiveCarotid stenosis (CS) is an important cause of ischemic stroke. Secondary prevention lies in performing a carotid endarterectomy (CEA) procedure, the recommended treatment in most cases. When two or more vascular regions are simultaneously affected by atherosclerosis, mainly the carotid arteries, coronary arteries, or limb arteries, a multivessel disease polyvascular disease (PVD) is present. This study aims to assess the potential role of PVD as a long-term predictor of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and all-cause mortality in patients submitted to CEA. MethodsFrom January 2012 to December 2021, patients submitted to CEA for carotid stenosis in a tertiary care and referral center were eligible from a prospective database. A post hoc survival analysis was performed using the Kaplan-Meier survival curve method. The primary outcome was the incidence of long-term MACE and all-cause mortality. Secondary outcomes included acute myocardial infarction (AMI), major adverse limb events (MALE), stroke, and acute heart failure (AHF). ResultsA total of 207 patients were enrolled, with a median follow-up of 63 months. The mean age was 70.4±8.9, and 163 (78.7%) were male. There were 65 (31.4%) patients that had two arterial vascular territories affected, and 29 (14.0%) patients had PVD in 3 arterial beds. On multivariable analysis, both MACE and all-cause mortality had as independent risk factors age (aHR 1.039, P=0.003; aHR 1.041, P=0.019), chronic kidney disease (aHR 2.524, P=0.003; aHR 3.377, P<0.001) and PVD2 (aHR 3.381, P<0.001; aHR 2.665, P=0.013). PVD1 was only associated with MACE as a statistically significant risk factor (aHR 2.531, 1.439-4.450, P<0.001). ConclusionPVD in patients with cerebrovascular disease (CVD) was revealed to carry a two-fold increased risk for all-cause mortality and MACE during long-term follow-up. PVD may be a simple yet valuable tool in predicting all-cause mortality, MACE, AMI, and MALE after CEA.

Long-Term Predictors of Gestational Hypertension: Placental Growth Factor, Pregnancy-Associated Plasma Protein-A and Free Beta-Hcg Versus Mean Arterial Pressure and Uterine Artery Doppler Versus a Combination of Both: A Comparative Study.

According to WHO, hypertensive disease is the leading cause of direct maternal mortality accounting for 10-25% in developing countries (James in Heart, 90(12):1499-504). This study compares the combinations of mean arterial pressure (MAP) and uterine artery doppler (UAD) versus serum-free β HCG, pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A, and placental growth factor (PlGF) versus a combination of all variables at 11 to 13+6 as long-term predictors of pregnancy-induced hypertension (PIH). A prospective, observational cohort study recruited 97 primigravidae at 11 to 13+6weeks gestation at GMCH. Follow-up was done at 32-34weeks and before delivery. Development of PIH, mode of delivery, birthweight, maternal and fetal adverse outcomes were documented, analyzed and compared among three groups. In Group A-biophysical markers, Group B-biochemical markers and in Group C all variables were used. The mean age, maternal weight, height and BMI of patients developing gestational hypertension were 30 ± 5years, 64.3 ± 12.5kg, 155.8 ± 5.5cm and 26.4 ± 4.1, respectively. Out of the 3, Group C is the best screening test for predicting the overall chance of development of gestational hypertension with a sensitivity of 97.37% and specificity of 38.98% (p < 0.0001). A mild negative correlation is seen between PlGF levels and severity of PIH (p-0.0382). MAP and UAD can be easily incorporated into the infrastructure of most hospitals. If the biochemical test kits are made available at a low cost through available programs such as JSSK, it can bring down the MMR by preventing gestational hypertension.

Outcomes and Predictors of Rapid Antiretroviral Therapy Initiation for People With Newly Diagnosed HIV in an Integrated Health Care System.

Rapid antiretroviral therapy (ART) is the recommended treatment strategy for patients newly diagnosed with HIV, but the literature supporting this strategy has focused on short-term outcomes. We examined both long-term outcomes and predictors of rapid ART among patients newly diagnosed with HIV within an integrated health care system in Northern California. This observational cohort study included adults newly diagnosed with HIV between January 2015 and December 2020 at Kaiser Permanente Northern California. Rapid ART was defined as ART initiation within 7 days of HIV diagnosis. We collected demographic and clinical data to determine short-term and long-term outcomes, including viral suppression, care retention, medication adherence, and cumulative viral burden. Logistic regression models were used to identify predictors of rapid ART initiation. We enrolled 1409 adults; 34.1% initiated rapid ART. The rapid ART group achieved viral suppression faster (48 vs 77 days; P < .001) and experienced lower cumulative viral burden (log10 viremia copy-years, 3.63 vs 3.82; P < .01) but had slightly reduced medication adherence (74.8% vs 75.2%; P < .01). There was no improvement in long-term viral suppression and care retention in the rapid group during follow-up. Patients were more likely to initiate rapid ART after 2017 and were less likely if they required an interpreter. Patients who received rapid ART had an improved cumulative HIV burden but no long-term improvement in care retention and viral suppression. Our findings suggest that rapid ART should be offered but additional interventions may be needed for patients newly diagnosed with HIV.

Inter- and intra-observer reproducibility of CT-Leaman score by an independent core lab.

To assess the reproducibility of CT-based Leaman score (CT-LeSc).CT-LeSc can non-invasively quantify total coronary atherosclerotic burden and is an independent long-term predictor of cardiac events. Its calculation however relies on the subjective assessment of lesions using coronary computed tomography angiography and therefore is subject to intra- and inter-observer variability.Inter-observer reproducibility was assessed by calculating the CT-LeSc in 50 patients randomly selected from the SYNTAX III REVOLUTION and ABSORB trials by two separate teams, each made up of two cardiologists, who reported results by consensus. For intra-observer reproducibility, the CT-LeSc was calculated in same 50 patients on two occasions eight weeks apart, by the same team of two cardiologists. The level of agreement was measured by the weighted kappa statistic, with intra- and inter-observer variability used to evaluate the CT-LeSc's reproducibility. The variables evaluated by weighted kappa statistics were total number of lesions; number of calcified lesions; number of non-calcified lesions; number of mixed lesions; number of obstructive lesions; number of non-obstructive lesions; and the total CT-LeSc in increments of ten and five.During assessment of inter-observer variability the mean±standard deviation (SD) CT-LeSc calculated by the first and second team was 15.36±5.57 versus 15.24±5.16. The mean of the differences (precision) was 0.97, with a SD (accuracy) 1.17. The inter-observer variability was lowest for Leaman score in increments of five (weighted kappa 0.93), and highest for the total number of calcified lesions (weighted kappa 0.66). During assessment of intra-observer variability, the mean±SD CT-LeSc were 16.61±5.28 versus 16.82±5.55. The mean±SD of the differences was 1.28±1.02. The intra-observer variability was the lowest for Leaman score in increments of five (weighted kappa 0.93), and the highest for the total number of lesions and calcified lesions (weighted kappa 0.65).CT-LeSc has substantial to near-perfect agreement for reproducibility.

Long-Term Outcomes and Predictors of Response in Breast Cancer Patients with Advanced Nodal Involvement.

Advanced nodal disease is associated with poor prognosis. However, modern neoadjuvant systemic therapy (NST) regimens have resulted in higher pathologic complete response (pCR) rates, which are associated with improved survival. We sought to assess contemporary outcomes in patients with advanced nodal involvement and response to NST. We conducted a single-institution, retrospective study of 521 patients with cN2-3 primary nonmetastatic breast cancer treated with NST followed by surgery and radiation from 2012 to 2018. Descriptive statistics, multivariate Cox regression, and Kaplan-Meier analyses were performed. The mean age was 50.5 years, and median follow-up was 61 (4.7 to 197) months. The majority of patients had hormone receptor-positive (HR+)/HER2-negative tumors (HER2-; n = 242, 47.8%). Most were cT2 (n = 243; 46.6%) or cT3 (n = 139; 26.7%) and 73.3% (n = 382) had cN3 disease. Rate of axillary pCR was 34.2%, and breast and axillary pCR was 19.4% (n = 101). Event-free survival (EFS) at 5 years was 75.1% (95% CI, 0.71 to 0.79). Rate of locoregional recurrence was 6.7%; distant metastatic rate was 29.4%. Axillary pCR with or without breast pCR was significantly associated with longer EFS (p = 0.001). Achieving breast/axillary pCR was an independent predictor of improved EFS (hazard ratio 0.22, p < 0.0001). Having triple-negative disease was associated with worse EFS (hazard ratio 1.74, p = 0.008). In a high-risk cohort of patients with cN2-3 disease, trimodality therapy was effective in achieving durable EFS. Approximately one-third of patients achieved axillary pCR, which was associated with improved survival. Further studies are needed to accurately determine axillary response in cN2-3 breast cancer after NST in order to develop de-escalation strategies to reduce morbidity associated with axillary surgery.

Clinical assessment and short-term mortality prediction of older adults with altered mental status using RASS and 4AT tools

BackgroundAltered mental status (AMS) in older adults is a common reason for admission to emergency departments (EDs) and usually results from delirium, stupor, or coma. It is important to proficiently identify underlying factors and anticipate clinical outcomes for those patients. AimThe primary objective of this study was to reveal and compare the clinical outcomes and etiologic factors of older patients with delirium, stupor, and coma. The secondary objective was to identify the 30-day mortality risk for those patients. MethodThe study was conducted as prospective and observational research. We included patients aged 65 years and older who presented with new-onset neurological and cognitive symptoms or worsening in baseline mental status. Patients who presented no change in their baseline mental status within 48 h and those who needed urgent interventions were excluded. Selected patients were assessed using RASS and 4AT tools and classified into three groups: stupor/coma, delirium, and no stupor/coma or delirium (no-SCD). Appropriate statistical tests were applied to compare these 3 groups. The 30-day mortality risks were identified by Cox survival analysis and Kaplan-Meier curve. ResultsA total of 236 patients were eligible for the study. Based on their RASS and 4AT test scores: 56 (23.7%), 94 (40.6%), and 86 (36.4%) patients formed the stupor/coma, delirium and no-SCD groups, respectively. There was no statistical difference in the three groups for gender, mean age, and medical comorbidities. Neurological (34.7%), infectious (19.4%), and respiratory (19.0%) diseases were the leading factors for AMS. Post-hoc tests showed that CCI scores of the delirium (6, IQR = 3) and stupor/coma (7, IQR = 3) groups were not significantly different. The 30-day mortality rates of stupor/coma, delirium, and no-SCD groups were 42.%, 15.9%, and 12.8%, respectively (p < 0.005). The hazard ratio of the stupor/coma group was 2.79 (CI: 95%, 1.36–5.47, p = 0.005). ConclusionAMS remains a significant clinical challenge in EDs. Using the RASS and 4AT tests provides benefits and advantages for emergency medicine physicians. Neurological, infectious, and respiratory diseases can lead to life-threatening mental deterioration. Our study revealed that long-term mortality predictor CCI scores were quite similar among patients with delirium, stupor, or coma. However, the short-term mortality was significantly increased in the stupor/coma patients and they had 2.8 times higher 30-day mortality risk than others.

The Relationship Between C-reactive Protein Albumin Ratio and Long-Term Mortality in Patients With Acute Coronary Syndrome.

Background Coronary artery disease (CAD) is one of the leading causes of death worldwide. CRP/albumin ratio is a sensitive indicator of inflammatory status. It has been shown that this parameter may be associated with poor short-term outcomes in CAD. In this study, we investigated the relationship between long-term mortality and the CRP/albumin ratio in patients with acute coronary syndromes (ACS). Material and methods This study was conducted on patients who applied to our hospital between January 2015 and December 2019 and were diagnosed with ACS. A total of 1689 patients were included in the study. Patients were divided into two groups according to mortality status, and long-term mortality predictors were investigated. Results The average follow-up period was 38.9±10.3 months. The mean age of the entire study group was 56.6±12.2 years, and 1440 (80.5%) of the patients were male. Comorbid diseases and blood parameters were significant between the two groups. In the regression analysis, creatine, hemoglobin, white blood cell count (WBC), neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), and CRP albumin ratio (CAR) were found to be independent predictors. In the ROC analysis, it was observed that CAR had the best predictive value. Discussion An increased CAR level is an independent predictor of long-term mortality in ACS patients. It can be used in both short-term and long-term risk stratification for ACS patients.

Long-term predictors of morbidity and mortality in patients following LVAD replacement.

As heart transplant guidelines evolve, the clinical indication for 73% of durable left ventricular assist device (LVAD) implants is now destination therapy. Although completely magnetically levitated LVAD devices have demonstrated improved durability relative to previous models, LVAD replacement procedures are still required for a variety of indications. Thus, the population of patients with a replaced LVAD is growing. There is a paucity of data regarding the outcomes and risk factors for those patients receiving first-time LVAD replacements. The study cohort consisted of all consecutive patients between 2006 and 2020 that received a first-time LVAD replacement at a single institution. Preoperative clinical and laboratory variables were collected retrospectively. The primary endpoint was death or need for an additional LVAD replacement. Data were subjected to Kaplan-Meier, univariate, and multivariate Cox hazard ratio analyses. In total, 152 patients were included in the study, of which 101 experienced the primary endpoint. On multivariate analysis, patients receiving HeartMate 3 (HM3) LVADs as the replacement device showed superior outcomes (HR 0.15, 95% CI 0.065-0.35, p < 0.0001). Independent risk factors for death or need for additional replacement included preoperative extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) (HR 4.44, 95% CI 1.87-14.45, and p = 0.00042), increased number of sternotomies (HR 5.20, 95% CI 1.87-14.45, and p = 0.0016), and preoperative mechanical ventilation (HR 1.98, 95% CI 1.01-3.86, and p = 0.045). Replacement with HM3 showed superior outcomes compared to all other pump types when controlling for both initial pump type and other independent predictors of death or LVAD replacement. Preoperative ECMO, mechanical ventilation, and multiple sternotomies also increased the odds for death or the need for subsequent replacement.

Short-term predictor for COVID-19 severity from a longitudinal multi-omics study for practical application in intensive care units

BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic challenged the management of technical and human resources in intensive care units (ICU) across the world. Several long-term predictors for COVID-19 disease progression have been discovered. However, predictors to support short-term planning of resources and medication that can be translated to future pandemics are still missing. A workflow was established to identify a predictor for short-term COVID-19 disease progression in the acute phase of intensive care patients to support clinical decision-making. MethodsThirty-two patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection were recruited on admission to the ICU and clinical data collected. During their hospitalization, plasma samples were acquired from each patient on multiple occasions, excepting one patient for which only one time point was possible, and the proteome (Inflammation, Immune Response and Organ Damage panels from Olink® Target 96), metabolome and lipidome (flow injection analysis and liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry) analyzed for each sample. Patient visits were grouped according to changes in disease severity based on their respiratory and organ function, and evaluated using a combination of statistical analysis and machine learning. The resulting short-term predictor from this multi-omics approach was compared to the human assessment of disease progression. Furthermore, the potential markers were compared to the baseline levels of 50 healthy subjects with no known SARS-CoV-2 or other viral infections. ResultsA total of 124 clinical parameters, 271 proteins and 782 unique metabolites and lipids were assessed. The dimensionality of the dataset was reduced, selecting 47 from the 1177 parameters available following down-selection, to build the machine learning model. Subsequently, two proteins (C–C motif chemokine 7 (CCL7) and carbonic anhydrase 14 (CA14)) and one lipid (hexosylceramide 18:2; O2/20:0) were linked to disease progression in the studied SARS-CoV-2 infections. Thus, a predictor delivering the prognosis of an upcoming worsening of the patient's condition up to five days in advance with a reasonable accuracy (79 % three days prior to event, 84 % four to five days prior to event) was found. Interestingly, the predictor's performance was complementary to the clinicians' capabilities to foresee a worsening of a patient. ConclusionThis study presents a workflow to identify omics-based biomarkers to support clinical decision-making and resource management in the ICU. This was successfully applied to develop a short-term predictor for aggravation of COVID-19 symptoms. The applied methods can be adapted for future small cohort studies.

TCT-38 Long-Term Clinical Outcomes and Risk Predictors for Mortality After Minimally Invasive Aortic Valve Surgery

TCT-38 Long-Term Clinical Outcomes and Risk Predictors for Mortality After Minimally Invasive Aortic Valve Surgery

Long-term predictors of anti-VEGF treatment response in patients with neovascularization secondary to CSCR: a longitudinal study.

To identify the baseline predictors of anti-VEGF treatment response at 3 years in patients affected by choroidal neovascularization (CNV) secondary to central serous chorioretinopathy (CSCR). In this retrospective longitudinal study, medical records of patients diagnosed with CNV secondary to CSCR and treated using anti-VEGF injections between April 2015 and May 2020 were reviewed. The potential qualitative and quantitative predictors of treatment response were identified or measured based on the multimodal imaging examination available for each patient at the baseline, including structural OCT, fluorescein angiography (FA), indocyanine green angiography (ICGA), and OCT-angiography (OCT-A). Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed. Twenty-nine eyes from 29 patients affected by CNV complicating CSCR were included in the study. At the end of the 3-year follow-up, the mean BCVA was 20/50 Snellen equivalent (0.38 ± 0.36 LogMAR), and no significant difference with baseline BCVA (0.37 ± 0.29 LogMAR) was found (p = 0.9). Twenty out of 29 eyes (69%) had active lesions at the end of the follow-up. At multivariate analysis, none of the included features was independently associated with the 3-year BCVA outcome. Pigment epithelium detachment (PED) height (ß = 0.017, p = 0.028) and outer limiting membrane (OLM) preservation at the fovea (ß = -5.637, p = 0.026) were independently associated with the CNV activity at 3 years. PED height and OLM obliteration at the fovea might be considered baseline predictors of lesion activity at 3-year follow-up in patients with CNV secondary to CSCR treated with anti-VEGF therapy.

Health-related quality of life in stroke survivors: a 5-year follow-up of The Fall Study of Gothenburg (FallsGOT)

BackgroundThere are limited data on long-term prevalence and predictors of health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in stroke survivors. Therefore, the aim was to describe the prevalence of impaired HRQoL, and to identify factors in acute stroke that are associated with impaired HRQoL, 5 years after stroke.MethodsThe 305 (60.5%) stroke survivors of the original 504 participants from The Fall Study of Gothenburg were invited to participate in a 5-year follow-up including assessment of HRQoL using the EuroQol 5 Dimensions 3 Levels questionnaire (EQ-5D-3L). To identify baseline predictors of impaired HRQoL, based on the EQ-5D-3L’s five dimensions, univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed.ResultsA total of 129 participants (42.3% of the survivors) completed the questionnaire at a median follow-up time of 58 months. At baseline, their mean age was 70.6 years, and they had a median NIHSS score of 1. The median (interquartile range [IQR]) EQ-5D-3L index score was 0.87 (0.71–0.93) and the median (IQR) EQ-visual analogue scale was 70 (49.8–88). In total, 102 (79%) participants were classified as having impaired HRQoL, stated primarily (among 68.5%) related to Pain/Discomfort. Higher age was identified as a predictor of impaired HRQoL related to Mobility (Odds ratio (OR) 1.05, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01–1.10) and Self-Care (OR 1.09, 95% CI 1.02–1.17), and longer hospital stay at baseline was identified as a predictor related to Mobility (OR 1.09, 95% CI 1.01–1.18), Self-Care (OR 1.10, 95% CI 1.02–1.18)) and Usual Activities. (OR 1.10, 95% CI 1.03–1.18).ConclusionAt 5 years after stroke, four out of five participants (79%) reported impaired HRQoL related to any of the five dimensions assessed by using the EQ-5D-3L. Most reported, impaired HRQoL was related to Pain/Discomfort. Higher age and longer hospital care period at index stroke were associated with impaired HRQoL. The findings could assist to identify individuals at high risk of low HRQoL, who might benefit from special attention and psychological support.