Predictor Of Long-term Mortality Research Articles

The impact of the Naples prognostic score in long-term outcomes after percutaneous coronary intervention for chronic total occlusions.

Chronic total occlusions (CTOs) of coronary arteries present a significant challenge in cardiology, with long-term outcomes following percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) for CTOs remaining variable and unpredictable. The Naples prognostic score (NPS), which incorporates markers of nutritional status and systemic inflammation, has shown potential in predicting outcomes in various cardiovascular settings. This study evaluates the NPS as a predictor of long-term outcomes after PCI for CTOs. A retrospective analysis was conducted on 287 patients who underwent coronary angiography. Patients were categorized into non-CTO-PCI and CTO-PCI groups. Patients were further stratified based on survival status. Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier survival analyses were used to evaluate the association between NPS and long-term outcomes. The mean age of the study population was 63.5 ± 10.6 years, with 28.6% being female. The NPS was significantly higher in the CTO-PCI group compared to the non-CTO-PCI group ( P = 0.004) and was also elevated in the non-survival group ( P = 0.004). Multivariable Cox regression analysis identified NPS as an independent predictor of mortality ( P = 0.015). Kaplan-Meier analysis demonstrated significantly higher mortality in patients with an elevated NPS ( P = 0.009). The NPS is a valuable independent predictor of long-term mortality in patients undergoing CTO-PCI. Incorporating NPS into existing risk stratification models could improve predictive accuracy and guide individualized patient management. Further prospective studies are warranted to validate these findings and explore interventions targeting inflammation and nutrition in this high-risk population.

A sex-disaggregated analysis of the prognostic value of lean type 2 diabetes mellitus in the adult population with acute myocardial infarction

BackgroundEmerging evidence has demonstrated the unfavourable cardiovascular risk of individuals with lean type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Our study aims to investigate the prognostic value of lean T2DM in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI), stratified by sex.MethodsThe study cohort examines the clinical characteristics and long-term outcomes of individuals with AMI, stratified by four phenotypes based on T2DM and lean body category—lean T2DM, non-lean T2DM, lean non-T2DM and non-lean non-T2DM. The primary outcome was long-term all-cause mortality. Cox regression model was constructed to investigate the associations of lean and non-lean T2DM phenotypes with mortality, adjusted for age, ethnicity, previous AMI, AMI type, chronic kidney disease, angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor or angiotensin receptor blockers, beta-blockers, and smoking status.ResultsA cohort of 9545 AMI patients was examined, with a mean follow-up duration of 3.4 ± 2.4 years. Majority had the non-lean T2DM phenotype (40.4%), followed by non-lean non-T2DM (29.8%), lean non-T2DM (15.9%), and lean T2DM (13.9%). In the T2DM group, one-quarter was lean (N = 1324), while the vast majority (74.5%) was non-lean. Individuals with lean T2DM tended to be female and older. Patients with lean T2DM had the highest rates of heart failure (23.3%, p < 0.001), cardiogenic shock (9.1%, p = 0.036), and long-term all-cause mortality (32.6%, p < 0.001). Cox regression demonstrated that lean T2DM was an independent predictor of mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.171, 95% CI 1.040–1.319, p = 0.009) after adjustment. The presence of higher mortality risk following AMI was present in males (aHR 1.201, 95% CI 1.037–1.391, p = 0.015), but not in females (aHR 1.066, 95% CI 0.869–1.308, p = 0.538).ConclusionsThe lean T2DM phenotype was present in one-quarter of the AMI cohort with T2DM. The lean T2DM phenotype was an independent predictor of long-term mortality following AMI, although this association was stronger in males than in females.

Impact of impaired renal function on kinetics of high-sensitive cardiac troponin following cardiac surgery.

Impaired renal function can increase cardiac troponin levels due to reduced elimination, potentially affecting its diagnostic utility. Limited data exist on high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I (hs-cTnI) kinetics after cardiac surgery relative to renal function. This study evaluates how impaired renal function influences hs-cTnI kinetics following cardiac surgery, distinguishing between patients with and without postoperative myocardial infarction (PMI). We conducted a retrospective analysis of adult patients who underwent elective cardiac surgery at our hospital from January 2013 to May 2019. Serial hs-cTnI measurements were taken from baseline up to 48h post-surgery. Renal function was assessed using the MDRD formula, defining impaired renal function as a GFR < 60ml/min. Acute kidney injury (AKI) was based on postoperative creatinine levels, and PMI was defined by ARC-2 criteria. Predictors of long-term all-cause mortality were analyzed using Cox regression. Out of 14,355 patients (51.4% CABG, 39.4% valvular procedures, 9.2% thoracic aortic procedures), 139 (1.0%) had PMI. Hs-cTnI levels were higher in patients with impaired renal function across the cohort and in those without PMI. However, in patients with PMI, hs-cTnI levels did not vary significantly with renal function. Elevated hs-cTnI ≥ 213 times the upper limit of normal was a significant predictor of long-term mortality regardless of renal function (hazard ratio: 1.28, 95% CI: 1.17-1.40, p < 0.001), but early postoperative hs-cTnI measures held poor discriminatory yield to predict PMI with an AUC of 0.55 (95% confidence intervals: 0.54-0.56). Renal function and acute kidney injury affect hs-cTnI kinetics post-surgery only in patients without PMI. Elevated hs-cTnI remains a strong predictor of long-term mortality, independent of renal function, but early postoperative detection of PMI requires additional metrics, including ECG, transthoracic echocardiography (TTE), and signs of hemodynamic instability.

Opportunistic assessment of steatotic liver disease in lung cancer screening eligible individuals.

Steatotic liver disease (SLD) is a potentially reversible condition but often goes unnoticed with the risk for end-stage liver disease. To opportunistically estimate SLD on lung screening chest computed tomography (CT) and investigate its prognostic value in heavy smokers participating in the National Lung Screening Trial (NLST). We used a deep learning model to segment the liver on non-contrast-enhanced chest CT scans of 19,774 NLST participants (age 61.4±5.0 years; 41.2% female) at baseline and on the 1-year follow-up scan if no cancer was detected. SLD was defined as hepatic fat fraction (HFF) ≥5% derived from Hounsfield unit measures of the segmented liver. Participants with SLD were categorized as lean (body mass index [BMI]<25kg/m2) and overweight (BMI≥25kg/m2). The primary outcome was all-cause mortality. Cox proportional hazard regression assessed the association between (1) SLD and mortality at baseline and (2) the association between a change in HFF and mortality within 1 year. There were 5.1% (1000/19,760) all-cause deaths over a median follow-up of 6 (range, 0.8-6) years. At baseline, SLD was associated with increased mortality in lean but not in overweight/obese participants as compared to participants without SLD (hazard ratio [HR] adjusted for risk factors: 1.93 [95% confidence interval 1.52-2.45]; p=0.001). Individuals with an increase in HFF within 1 year had a significantly worse outcome than participants with stable HFF (HR adjusted for risk factors: 1.29 [1.01-1.65]; p=0.04). SLD is an independent predictor for long-term mortality in heavy smokers beyond known clinical risk factors.

Coronary artery calcifications incidentally found during low-dose computed tomography screening for lung cancer are an independent predictor of long-term mortality.

Coronary artery calcifications incidentally found during low-dose computed tomography screening for lung cancer are an independent predictor of long-term mortality.

Prognostic value of systemic immune-inflammation index in older patients with acute coronary syndrome.

Contemporary studies assessing the importance of the systemic immune-inflammation index (SII) in older patients presenting with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) are scarce. This study investigated the impact and prognostic value of the SII regarding long-term mortality in older patients with ACS. The study included 401 older patients aged 75 years and above admitted with ACS between May 2015 and December 2022. Predictors of mortality were determined using multivariate Cox regression analysis. Survival curves were generated using the Kaplan-Meier method. The patients' median age was 81 (77-85) years, and 197 (49.1%) were male. The median follow-up was 23 months (Q1-Q3 : 4-43, maximum: 102). All short- and long-term deaths, including in-hospital deaths, were significantly high in patients with high SII (P = 0.001). Inflammatory variables, including C-reactive protein, SII, the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio, and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio, were positively correlated with the SYNTAX score (for SII; R = 0.492, P = 0.001). Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that age [hazard ratio (HR): 1.082, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.051-1.114, P = 0.001], estimated glomerular filtration rate (HR: 0.988, 95% CI: 0.982-0.994, P = 0.001), SII (HR: 1.004, 95% CI: 1.001-1.006, P = 0.001), and left ventricular ejection fraction (HR: 0.959, 95% CI: 0.947-0.97, P = 0.001) were independent predictors of mortality in older patients with ACS. Kaplan-Meier analysis also showed that patients with high SII had a significantly higher mortality rate (P = 0.001). A high SII is an independent predictor of long-term mortality in older patients with ACS.

The Predictive Value of Heart Rate Variability for Long-Term Outcomes in Patients Undergoing Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting and ICU Referrals

Background: Heart rate variability (HRV) is known to play a significant role in predicting poor prognosis after acute myocardial infarction. Nonetheless, its potential for predicting long-term adverse outcomes following revascularization procedures remains unclear. This study aims to elucidate this relationship. Methods: This prospective cohort study included 258 consecutive patients undergoing elective isolated coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). All patients required ICU referral before hospital discharge. A 3-week cardiac rehabilitation program with 24-hour ECG Holter monitoring was planned for all patients. HRV was analyzed by computer and manually over-read. During a follow-up period ranging from 1 to 3 years, patients were contacted via phone to assess long-term outcomes, including death and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), such as myocardial infarction, reoperation, or brain stroke. Results: Out of 258 patients (177 males and 81 females) with an average age of 58.80±9.60 years, 4.3% of patients died due to cardiovascular events, and 15.1% experienced long-term MACE. A comparison of HRV indicators between the non-surviving and surviving subgroups revealed significantly lower mean RR, mean standard deviation of normal-to-normal HRV interval (SDNN), and low and high-frequency values in the former group. However, when comparing HRV indicators between the subgroups with and without long-term MACE, no significant differences were observed. Cox proportional hazard analysis demonstrated that decreased HRV (SDNN) effectively predicted long-term mortality in patients who underwent CABG. Conclusion: Lower postoperative HRV serves as a valuable predictor of long-term mortality after CABG in ICU patients, with reduced SDNN values particularly relevant for anticipating long-term adverse events.

Exploring the impact of age on the predictive power of the National Early Warning score (NEWS) 2, and long-term prognosis among patients reviewed by a Rapid Response Team: A prospective, multi-centre study.

To explore the impact of age on the discriminative ability of the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) 2 in prediction of unanticipated Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admission, in-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA) and mortality within 24 hours of Rapid Response Team (RRT) review. Furthermore, to investigate 30- and 90-day mortality, and the discriminative ability of NEWS 2 in prediction of long-term mortality among RRT-reviewed patients. Prospective, multi-centre study based on 830 complete cases. Data was collected by RRTs in 24 hospitals between October 2019, and January 2020. All NEWS 2 scores were uniformly calculated by the study team. Age was analysed as a continuous variable, in a spline regression model, and categorized into five different models, subsequently explored as additive variables to NEWS 2. The discriminative ability of NEWS 2 was evaluated using the Area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUROC). The discriminative ability of NEWS 2 alone in predicting 30-day mortality was weak. Adding age as a covariate improved the predictive performance (AUROC 0.66, 0.62-0.70 to 0.70, 0.65-0.73, p = 0.01, 95 % Confidence Interval). There were differences across age groups, with the best discriminative ability identified among patients aged 45-54 years. The 30- and 90-day mortality was 31% and 33% respectively. Adding age as a covariate improved the discriminative ability of NEWS 2 in the prediction of 30-day mortality among RRT-reviewed patients, with variations observed across age categories. The long- term prognosis of RRT-reviewed patients was poor.

Predictors of long-term all-cause mortality after carotid artery stenting: evaluation of the Naples prognostic score

Background Mortality in patients after carotid artery stenting (CAS), a treatment approach for atherosclerotic carotid artery stenosis, is influenced by numerous factors. This study aimed to investigate the prognostic value of the Naples prognostic score (NPS), which reflects nutritional and inflammatory status, in CAS patients. Methods We retrospectively included 697 patients who underwent CAS from January 2016 to December 2020 at our institute. The primary endpoint of the study was long-term all-cause mortality. The study population was divided into two groups based on the NPS value: Low NPS (NPS 0–2) and high NPS (NPS 3-4). Univariable and multivariable Cox regression analysis was used to identify independent predictors of death. Results The median follow-up time was 60.8 (46.36-75.36) months. During the follow-up period, all-cause mortality was higher in the high-NPS group compared to the low-NPS group [54% (n = 88) vs. 24% (n = 128) p < 0.001]. Advanced age (p = 0.003), diabetes (p = 0.023), and NPS (hazard ratio: 1.83, confidence interval: 1.58-2.12, p < 0.001) were found to be independent predictors of all-cause mortality at long-term follow-up. Conclusion Consequently, NPS as a marker of malnutrition and inflammation, was found to be associated with long-term mortality and serves as an independent predictor of long-term mortality in patients undergoing CAS.

The importance of Naples prognostic score in predicting long-term mortality in heart failure patients

Background Heart failure (HF) remains a significant health problem despite advances in diagnosis and treatment options. Malnutrition and increased inflammation predict poor disease prognosis. The parameters of the Naples prognostic score (NPS) include albumin, total cholesterol, neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), and lymphocyte-monocyte ratio (LMR). We aimed to assess the potential of NPS as a predictor of long-term mortality in patients with HF. Methods A total of 1728 patients with HF who applied to our center between 2018 and 2022 were included in this study. The NPS was computed and the patients were divided into three groups according to their NPS values as follows: NPS = 0 (Group 1), NPS = 1–2 (Group 2), and NPS = 3–4 (Group 3). We also evaluated the association between NPS value and HF mortality. Results The patients were followed for a mean follow-up duration of 30 months. The mortality rate was 8.3% (145 patients). We carried out Model-1 and -2 Cox regression analyses to identify long-term mortality determinants. Model-2 was constructed by adding NPS to Model-1. NPS was significantly associated with HF mortality (Hazard Ratio: 2.194, 95% Confidence Interval: 1.176–4.091, p = 0.014). According to the Kaplan-Meier plot and log-rank analyses, there was a statistically significant difference in the long-term mortality of patients with HF and their NPS values for the entire cohort. Conclusion Based on our findings, NPS showed promise as an independent predictor of long-term mortality in individuals with HF.

Development and Validation of a New Model Including Inflammation Indexes for the Long-Term Prognosis of Hepatitis B-Related Acute-On-Chronic Liver Failure.

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a severe condition characterized by a systemic inflammatory response and associated with high mortality. Currently, there is no reliable prediction model for long-term prognosis in ACLF. This study aimed to develop and validate a prognostic model incorporating inflammation indexes to predict the long-term outcome of patients with hepatitis B virus-related ACLF (HBV-ACLF). A retrospective analysis of clinical data from HBV-ACLF patients (n = 986) treated at the Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University between January 2014 and December 2018 was conducted. Patients were randomly divided into training (n = 690) and validation (n = 296) cohorts. The Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) and Cox regression analyses were used to identify independent risk factors for long-term mortality. The following variables were identified as independent predictors of long-term mortality: age, cirrhosis, hepatic encephalopathy, total bilirubin (TBIL), international normalized ratio (INR), monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio (MLR), and neutrophil-to-platelet ratio (NPR). A novel nomogram was established by assigning weights to each variable. The C-index of the nomogram was 0.777 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.752-0.802). In the training set, the area under the curve (AUC) for predicting mortality at 1, 3, and 12 months was 0.841 (95% CI: 0.807-0.875), 0.827 (95% CI: 0.796-0.859), and 0.829 (95% CI: 0.798-0.859), respectively. The nomogram demonstrated superior predictive performance for 12-month survival compared to the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score (0.767, 95% CI: 0.730-0.804, p < 0.001) and the clinical overt sepsis in acute liver failure clinical practice Guidelines-ACLF II score (0.807, 95% CI: 0.774-0.840, p = 0.028). Finally, calibration curves and decision curve analysis (DCA) confirmed the clinical utility of the nomogram. The novel inflammation-based scoring system, incorporating MLR and NPR, effectively predicts long-term mortality in HBV-ACLF patients.

Association of the Naples Prognostic Score with Long-Term Adverse Events in Chronic Limb-Threatening Ischemia After Below-the-Knee Endovascular Revascularization.

Chronic limb-threatening ischemia (CLTI) is the most severe manifestation of peripheral artery disease (PAD) and is associated with high morbidity and mortality. The Naples prognostic score (NPS), a composite marker incorporating serum albumin, total cholesterol, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), and lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR), has shown prognostic value in various cardiovascular conditions. This study aimed to evaluate the prognostic significance of the NPS in predicting all-cause mortality and any kind of amputation in patients with CLTI undergoing endovascular treatment (EVT) for below-the-knee (BTK) lesions. In this retrospective analysis, 191 patients diagnosed with CLTI and treated with EVT for BTK lesions between 2017 and 2023 were stratified into three groups based on the NPS: low (0-1), intermediate (2), and high (3-4). The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality, while the secondary endpoint was any kind of amputation. A higher NPS was significantly associated with increased all-cause mortality (hazard ratio: 3.66; 95% confidence interval: 1.72-7.78; p < 0.001), while no significant association was observed between the NPS and major amputation. Independent predictors of mortality included a high NPS, reduced left ventricular ejection fraction, and impaired renal function. The NPS is an independent predictor of long-term mortality in CLTI patients undergoing EVT for BTK lesions.

Validation of EuroSCORE II, ACEF Score, CHA2DS2-VASc, and CHA2DS2-VA in Patients Undergoing Left Main Coronary Artery Angioplasty: Analysis from All-Comers BIA-LM Registry.

Background: Simple surgical and clinical risk scores are useful in mortality prediction. Aims: The study's aim was to validate three scores in real-world registry of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) for the left main coronary artery (LMCA). Methods: All data were obtained from the BIA-LM Registry. Discrimination and calibration of EuroSCORE II, ACEF, CHA2DS2-VASc, and CHA2DS2-VA were assessed with receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves analysis and Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) test. Results: The final cohort included 851 patients, median age was 71, and 156 patients had history of previous coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). Median EuroSCORE II, ACEF, CHA2DS2-VASc, and CHA2DS2-VA were 3.1% (IQR 5.4%), 1.56 (IQR 0.9), 4 (IQR 2), and 4 (IQR 2), respectively. In the short- (30 days) and long-term (mean 4.1 years), there were 27 and 318 deaths. In short-term, EuroSCORE II showed the best discrimination in the overall population and subgroup with unprotected LMCA [area under the curve (AUC) 0.804, 95% CI 0.717-0.890 and AUC 0.826, 95% CI 0.737-0.913, respectively, p < 0.001 for comparisons with other models), with the best cut-off value at 7.1%. In long-term observation, EuroSCORE II and ACEF showed good predictive value (overall population: AUC 0.716, 95% CI 0.680-0.750 and AUC 0.725, 95% CI 0.690-760, respectively). In short- and long-term observation, EuroSCORE II and ACEF showed poor calibration (HL test p < 0.05) as compared to CHA2DS2-VASc (HL test p = 0.40 and 0.18). Conclusions: EuroSCORE II showed good mortality prediction in short-term observation; however, its predicted risk should be interpreted with caution due to poor calibration. ACEF and EuroSCORE II may be useful in long-term mortality prediction.

Clinical Implications of Pan-Immune-inflammatory Values in Patients with Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy.

Despite significant advances in understanding hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) in recent years, there is a need to improve risk stratification for patients at high risk of adverse outcomes. The relationship between inflammation and disease severity in HCM patients is known. Recently, a new inflammation parameter called the pan-immune inflammation value (PIV) has been introduced. However, the relationship between PIV and HCM has not yet been examined. Hence, we aim to investigate the effect of PIV on prognosis in a large series of HCM patients. The study included 389 consecutive patients with HCM admitted to a tertiary care hospital between 2004 to 2021. The PIV for patients was calculated as: Neutrophil count x platelet count x monocyte count / lymphocyte count. The cohort was categorized into three groups according to PIV, and the association between these groups and long-term mortality was evaluated. Over an average follow-up period of 55.5±12.7 months, long-term mortality occurred in 47 out of 389 patients. Long-term mortality was recorded in 7 patients in tertile 1, 12 patients in tertile 2, and 28 patients in tertile 3. Multivariate regression analysis revealed that long-term all-cause mortality was 3.5 times higher in tertile 3 compared to tertile 1. The receiver-operating characteristic curve based on the PIV had 62% sensitivity and 65% specificity for long-term mortality. High PIV levels may serve as a predictor of long-term mortality in patients with HCM. PIV could be a useful screening tool for identifying HCM patients at increased risk of adverse outcomes.

Use of Intravascular Micro-Axial Left Ventricular Assist Devices as a Bridging Strategy for Cardiogenic Shock: Mid-Term Outcomes.

Objectives: Patients in cardiogenic shock (CS) may be successfully bridged using intravascular micro-axial left ventricular assist devices (M-LVADs) for recovery or determination of definitive therapy. Methods: One hundred and seven CS patients implanted with M-LVADs from January 2020 to May 2024 were divided into four groups; group-1: 34 patients (transplant); group-2: 25 patients (LVAD); group-3: 42 patients (postcardiotomy CS (PCCS)); group-4: 6 patients (decision/recovery but excluded from analysis). Multivariable logistic regression and Multivariable Coxregression models identified predictors of early -hospital and late mortality, and Odds ratios (ORs) and hazard ratios (HRs) with p < 0.05, respectively, were considered statistically significant. SPSS 29.0 and Python 3.11.1. were used for analyses. Results: Complications included device-malfunction (6%), gastrointestinal bleed (9%), long-term hemodialysis (21%), axillary hematoma requiring re-exploration (10%), heparin-induced thrombocytopenia (4%) requiring heparin therapy cessation/initiation of argatroban infusion, and non-fatal stroke (11%). Early hospital mortality included 13 patients: 2 in group-1, 1 in group-2, 10 in group-3 (p = 0.02). In the Logistic-Regression model, category of CS requiring an M-LVAD was significant (OR = 4.7, p = 0.05). Patients were followed for 4.5 years (mean follow-up was 23 ± 17 months), and 23 deaths occurred; group-1: 3 patients, group-2: 5 patients, and group-3: 15 patients (p = 0.019). At 4.5 years, actuarial survival was 90.7 ± 5.1% in group-1, 79.2 ± 8.3% in group-2, 62.8 ± 7.7% in group-3 (p = 0.01). In the Cox-Regression model, M-LVAD category (HR = 3.63, p = 0.04), and long-term postoperative dialysis (HR = 3.9, p = 0.002) emerged as predictors of long-term mortality. Conclusions: In cardiogenic shock, mid-term outcomes demonstrate good survival with M-LVADs as bridge to transplant/durable LVADs and reasonable survival with M-LVADs as a bridge to recovery following cardiotomy, accompanied by reduced ECMO usage, and early ambulation/rehabilitation.

Abstract 4135517: Echocardiographic Biomarkers Enhance Mortality Predictions in Cirrhosis Patients

Introduction: Cirrhosis, a late-stage liver disease, is associated with numerous systemic complications, making long-term mortality prediction challenging. Traditional models like Child-Pugh and MELD are primarily designed for short-term (3-month) mortality. This study evaluates the impact of incorporating echocardiographic (echo) variables in predicting long-term mortality in cirrhosis patients. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted using data from 60 patients with clinically diagnosed cirrhosis from Hippokration Hospital, Greece, spanning 2018 to 2022. Patients were followed for up to 52 months. Exclusion criteria included pre-existing cardiovascular diseases and significant co-morbidities. Patients were categorized into survived to end of study (n=31) and died during study (n=29) groups. Outcomes were analyzed using multivariate logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards models, and include parameters for age, blood pressure, lab-based biomarkers (potassium, pro-brain natriuretic peptide, hemoglobin, platelet count, aspartate transaminase, gamma-glutamyl transferase, uric acid), and echo/ecg measurements (QT interval, left ventricular (LV) ejection fraction, LV global longitudinal strain (GLS), left atrial GLS, annulus velocities, and E/A ratio). Results: The multivariate logistic regression model (MELD+) that included echo variables showed a 10% improvement in area under the curve (AUC: 0.901) compared to the MELD model alone (AUC: 0.817). MELD+ improved risk classification accuracy by nearly 10% with a conservative threshold. The Cox proportional hazards model with MELD+ also demonstrated superior performance (AUC: 0.923; C-index: 0.875; Brier Score: 0.097) compared to the MELD model alone (AUC: 0.892; C-index: 0.831; Brier Score: 0.134). The MELD+ model showed less variation in hazard ratio confidence intervals, indicating more consistent risk estimation. Conclusion: Incorporating echocardiographic measurements enhances the accuracy of long-term mortality predictions in cirrhosis patients. These findings suggest that cardiac imaging should be considered in risk assessments for cirrhosis patients, particularly for predicting survival beyond three months.

Abstract 4135434: Effect of early nutritional guidance for patients with acute myocardial infarction: A single center retrospective cohort study

Introduction/Background: Acute myocardial infarction (AMI) stands as a major global cause of mortality. Various intervention strategies, such as pre-hospital care, reperfusion therapies, pharmacological interventions, dietary modifications, and exercise therapies, have been researched to improve patient prognosis. Research Question: There remains a lack of evidence regarding the impact of early nutritionist-led dietary guidance on the prognosis of AMI patients. Aim: This study aimed to elucidate whether nutritional guidance by nutritionists who have national qualifications would improve the mortality and the primary composite endpoint (including acute decompensated heart failure, stroke, and acute coronary syndrome) of patients following an acute myocardial infarction. Methods/Approach: A retrospective cohort study enrolling 409 AMI patients who underwent emergency percutaneous coronary interventions between September 1, 2015, and October 31, 2023. Nutritionists guided 223 patients (54.5%) during hospitalization in this study. The nutritional guidance used in our study was also based on the definition of adequate caloric intake of 25–30 kcal per ideal body weight (kg). Under an appropriate total energy intake, a fat energy ratio of 20–25% and a carbohydrate energy ratio of 50–60% are recommended, with protein and lipid restrictions depending on the disease state. Results/Data: During a median follow-up of 39 months, 24 cases of all-cause mortality (5.9%) and 6 cases of cardiovascular mortality (1.5%) were recorded. Kaplan–Meier curves demonstrated significantly higher incidence rates of death and primary composite endpoints among patients without nutritional guidance during hospitalization. The multivariate Cox regression model revealed early nutritional guidance as a significant predictor for long-term mortality but not for primary composite endpoints. Furthermore, undernourished patients, defined as those with a geriatric nutritional risk index of 98 or less, showed a similar prognosis to those with good nutritional status after receiving nutritional guidance, indicating that nutritional guidance improves prognosis. Conclusion: Nutritionist-led dietary guidance for patients with AMI can potentially improve total mortality and is expected to be more effective in undernourished patients. Further research is warranted to explore the physiological impacts of improved diets resulting from such guidance and their effects on enhancing prognosis.

Developing a multi-center registry of peripheral artery disease using natural language processing: unlocking the power of the electronic health record

Abstract Background Although peripheral artery disease (PAD) is common and associated with a high risk of mortality, contemporary PAD research remains limited due to poor accuracy of diagnosis codes in the electronic health record (EHR). We previously developed and validated a novel natural language processing (NLP) algorithm that can extract ankle brachial index (ABI) and toe-brachial index (TBI) values from clinical documents and identify patients with PAD with high accuracy (positive predictive value 92.4%). Purpose Scale the NLP system for developing a nationwide registry of PAD in the Veterans Health Administration (VHA), the largest integrated health system in the U.S. that provides care to ~9 million Veterans across 130 sites. Describe the baseline characteristics and mortality outcomes among participants and identify predictors of long-term mortality. Methods A total of 1,182,025 documents from vascular and radiology procedures during 2013-2020 were processed by the NLP system. After excluding non-ABI vascular studies, patients with a known diagnosis of PAD prior to 2015, patients younger than 40 years of age, and those who do not regularly follow-up in the VHA, we identified 107,711 patients with newly diagnosed PAD during 2015-2020. Patients were followed longitudinally using the VA’s electronic health record data. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to examine predictors of long-term mortality. Results The mean age was 70.5 years; 97.3% were males, and 18.5% were of Black race. The mean ABI value was 0.78 (SD: 0.26) and the mean TBI value was 0.51 (SD: 0.19). There was a high prevalence of hypertension (83.6%), heart failure (20.8%), diabetes (53.6%), renal failure (22.1%) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (32.4%, Table 1). At 1-year, 9.6% of patients had died and this proportion increased to 25.4% at 3 years. Although nearly all patient variables were significantly associated with mortality, older age, severe PAD at diagnosis, diabetes, heart failure, renal failure and COPD were the strongest predictors of long-term mortality. Black race was associated with lower hazard of long-term mortality. Conclusions Using a previously validated novel NLP algorithm that extracts ABI and TBI values from clinical documents, we have successfully developed a registry of newly diagnosed PAD in the VHA. Ongoing studies from our cohort will yield important insights into the association between clinical management of PAD and clinical outcomes, with the goal of identifying opportunities for improving care.

The prognostic value of metabolic dysfunction associated steatotic liver disease in acute myocardial infarction

Abstract Background Patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) are at increased risk of incident cardiovascular disease. However, the clinical characteristics and prognostic importance of MASLD in patients presenting with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) have yet to be examined. Methods This study compared the characteristics, and outcomes of patients with and without MASLD presenting with AMI at a tertiary centre in Singapore. MASLD was defined as hepatic steatosis, with at least one of five metabolic criteria. Hepatic steatosis was determined using the Hepatic Steatosis Index. Propensity score matching was performed to adjust for age and sex. Kaplan-Meier curve was constructed for long-term all-cause mortality. Cox regression analysis was used to investigate independent predictors of long-term all-cause mortality. Results In this study of 4446 patients with AMI, 2223 patients with MASLD were matched with patients without MASLD using propensity scores. The mean follow-up duration was 3.4 ± 24 years. The MASLD group had higher rates of obesity, diabetes, and chronic kidney disease than their counterparts. Patients with MASLD had early excess all-cause mortality (6.8% vs 3.6%, p&amp;lt;0.001) at 30 days, with unfavorable mortality rates sustained in the long-term (18.3% vs 14.5%, p=0.001) compared to those without MASLD. After adjustment, MASLD remained independently associated with higher long-term all-cause mortality (HR 1.338, 95% CI 1.115-1.604). Conclusion MASLD embodies a higher burden of metabolic dysfunction and is an independent predictor of long-term mortality in the AMI population. Its early identification may be beneficial for risk stratification and provide therapeutic targets for secondary preventive strategies in AMI.Kaplan Meier curve of long-term all-caus

Causes and predictors of long-term mortality in patients referred to a cardiac rehabilitation program

Abstract Introduction Cardiac rehabilitation (CR) programs have proven to reduce short-term mortality in patients with ischemic heart disease (IHD) and hospitalization rates in patients with heart failure (HF) (1-3). However, there is insufficient evidence about long-term mortality (&amp;gt;24-36 months) for patients receiving treatments based on recent clinical practice recommendations. Purpose To assess the long-term prognosis and predictors of mortality in a heterogenous group of patients referred to cardiac rehabilitation, and to obtain a detailed overview of death causes. Methods An inferential analysis of consecutive patients referred for exercise-based CR at a single site between January 2016 and January 2021 was performed. Included subjects were classified attending to four indications for referral: IHD, HF, valvular heart disease (VHD) and cancer therapy-related cardiovascular toxicity (CTR-CVT). Patients who did not initiate the CR program or were referred for other indications were excluded. The primary endpoint was all cause death. The secondary endpoint was cardiovascular (CV) death. A survival analysis was performed using Kaplan Meier estimates for each referral indication and a Cox proportional hazards model was fitted to investigate mortality predictors. The initiation of the exercise program was considered the inclusion date, and patients were followed until they met the primary endpoint or censored by January 2024. Results A total of 1180 patients were included in the analysis (81% male, mean age 61 ± 11 years), with a median follow-up of 5.3 years. Most of the patients had been referred due to IHD (87%), while the proportion for HF, VHD, and CTR-CVT was 9.9%, 1.8% and 1.4%, respectively. Seventy-eight patients (6.6%) died during follow-up, with a Kaplan-Meier estimated survival of 94.5% at 5 years (95% CI 93.2%-95.9%). Nineteen patients (24.4%) died due to a cardiovascular event, mostly sudden cardiac death (47%). The predominant non-CV causes of death were infectious disease (36%) and cancer (34%). A multivariate Cox model analysis (Table 1) showed an increased risk of all cause death for patients referred due to HF (HR 2.95, 95% CI 1.33 - 6.55), VHD (HR 5.55, 95% CI 1.19 - 25.9) and CTR-CVT (22.47, 95% IC 7.32 - 68.95) when compared to IHD (Figure 1). Other significant predictors of mortality were LVEF &amp;lt;40%, male sex, age, diabetes, peripheral vascular disease, and multivessel coronary disease. Only LVEF &amp;lt;40%, VHD, CTR-CVT and peripheral vascular disease were independent predictors of CV death. Conclusion Patients who initiated an exercise-based CR program had a low risk of all cause death at 5 years. Indications for CR other than IHD were associated with higher mortality rates after adjusting for confounder variables, likely due to a selection bias of patients in advanced stages of the disease.Table 1.Cox models for all-cause deathFigure 1.KM plot for all-cause death