Long-term Population Studies Research Articles

Cancer Incidence and Outcome for Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis: A Long-Term Population Study in Western Australia.

Our aim was to compare the incidence of malignancy and its effect on mortality between hospitalized patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and controls. We conducted a population-level observational study of patients with RA (International Classification of Diseases, 9th revision, Clinical Modification [ICD-9-CM] code 714 and International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, 10th revision, Australian Modification [ICD-10-AM] codes M05-M06) in the Hospital Morbidity Data Collection (HDMC) in Western Australia (WA) between 1985 and 2015, as well as nonexposed hospitalized controls matched on sex, age, and year of index admission. HDMC data were linked to the WA Cancer Registry and the WA Death Registry data, and cancer incidence rates (CIRs) per 1000 person-years, incidence rate ratios (IRR) with 95% CIs, and Kaplan Meier survival were estimated. Among 14,041 patients with RA (67.56% female, median age 65.1 years) and 33,785 controls (65.16% female, median age 65.3 years), preexisting cancer in patients with RA was less prevalent than in controls (7.6% vs 14.2%; P < 0.01). In participants without prior cancer, the overall post index CIR was lower in those with RA (CIR 19.68 vs 24.77; IRR 0.79, 95% CI 0.76-0.83) and stable over 3 study decades. CIR was higher in patients with RA for lung (CIR 1.17, 95% CI 1.04-1.34) and hematological cancer (CIR 1.21, 95% CI 1.03-1.43) but lower for most other cancer types. Overall median survival was lower for patients with RA than controls (3.3 vs 5.3 years; P < 0.001) with increased mortality rates observed for most cancer subtypes. Overall CIR in patients with RA was consistently lower over time than in matched controls. CIR was only increased for lung and hematological cancer. Despite the overall lower CIR, post cancer mortality was higher for patients with RA in most cancer subtypes.

36-year study reveals stability of a wild wheat population across microhabitats.

Long-term genetic studies of wild populations are very scarce, but are essential for connecting ecological and population genetics models, and for understanding the dynamics of biodiversity. We present a study of a wild wheat population sampled over a 36-year period at high spatial resolution. We genotyped 832 individuals from regular sampling along transects during the course of the experiment. Genotypes were clustered into ecological microhabitats over scales of tens of metres, and this clustering was remarkably stable over the 36 generations of the study. Simulations show that it is difficult to determine whether this spatial and temporal stability reflects extremely limited dispersal or fine-scale local adaptation to ecological parameters. Using a common-garden experiment, we showed that the genotypes found in distinct microhabitats differ phenotypically. Our results provide a rare insight into the population genetics of a natural population over a long monitoring period.

Insights from 20 years of mammal population research in Indonesia

AbstractMammal populations are declining in biodiverse tropical regions. Global analyses have identified Indonesia as a hotspot of vertebrate decline, although relatively few data are available to substantiate these claims. We reviewed research articles published during 2000–2020 on 104 medium-sized to large terrestrial mammal species found in Indonesia to help inform conservation management and future research. We identified 308 peer-reviewed studies published in English or Bahasa Indonesia, with an increase in publication rate (articles published per year) over time. Studies of species distributions dominated the literature, followed by publications on abundance, species diversity and combinations of these topics. Most publications concerned single-species studies conducted at a single location and a single point in time. We identify four key issues that should be addressed by future research and conservation efforts: (1) disproportionate focus on a small number of species; (2) geographical bias towards west Indonesia (Sumatra, Kalimantan and Java–Bali), with few published studies from central (Sulawesi, Nusa Tenggara and Maluku) and east (Papua) Indonesia; (3) limitations to survey design, sampling effort and data analysis; and (4) lack of long-term wildlife population studies. We also note challenges local researchers face in publishing their studies in international journals because of language barriers and costs. Greater use of existing biodiversity data and continued capacity building for local researchers, particularly those in central and east Indonesia, are critical to effectively guide future wildlife monitoring and improve the conservation status of Indonesian mammals.

Sharp declines in observation and capture rates of Amazon birds in absence of human disturbance

Across the globe, unprecedented declines have been reported across a range of taxa. Among the most well documented are declines in bird populations, with most declines attributable to human activities such as deforestation and other alterations to habitats. There is increasing evidence that bird populations also have declined at sites within large expanses of relatively undisturbed lowland tropical forest, such as in Amazonia. Causes of such declines likely are varied and may be related to direct or indirect effects of climate change. Here, we use mist-net data and direct observations to examine changes in bird numbers over a 22-yr period on two 100-ha study plots in an Amazonian lowland forest of eastern Ecuador. As previously reported, capture rates experienced large declines from 2009 on; observation rates also showed large declines through 2013 but subsequently have shown no consistent trend up or down. Overall capture rates and observation rates are now approximately half the rates during the first decade. Most foraging guilds also declined over time, with declines particularly pronounced among insectivorous groups. With few exceptions, patterns of change were similar between plots suggesting a more general response rather than responses to local factors on each plot. Capture rates and observation rates of ∼90% of the most common species in both understory and canopy were lower during the latter part of the study, with only a few species (∼10%) showing increases. Similarly, large declines were seen in both canopy and understory mixed-species flocks. Large declines in bird numbers have been noted in other tropical sites that have conducted long-term population studies, including Panama and Brazil, suggesting a response to large-scale factors, such as climate change. While not yet documented, the consequences of losing approximately 50% of population abundance are likely substantial and could result in local extinction of rare species, altered species interactions and social organization, as well as declining ecological function and biotic integrity of these tropical forest ecosystems.

Exploring the acoustic diversity of Andean frogs in the Farallones de Cali National Natural Park, southwestern Colombia

ABSTRACT The advertisement calls that frogs emit in a reproductive context are among the most conspicuous and studied acoustic signals. They play a significant role in interspecific recognition, mate selection, and territoriality and can be used in different fields such as taxonomy, ethology, ecology, and evolutionary studies. In Colombia, around 40% of the recognized frog species have descriptions of their calls in the literature. However, the Cordillera Occidental in the tropical Andes and the Strabomantidae family are underrepresented in the literature despite the huge species diversity they hold. Here, we described the advertisement calls of eleven frog species belonging to three families from three localities at high elevations in the Cordillera Occidental, which have been inaccessible to scientific research due to security concerns. We describe the advertisement calls of five Pristimantis species for the first time and estimated the daily acoustic activity patterns of four Pristimantis species. Our findings enhance the number of known advertisement calls for anuran species from one of the least-represented regions and families in the country. In addition, they provide important information regarding the natural history of four Pristimantis species that could be used as a baseline for future long-term population studies.

Chronic lead exposure prolongs the immature stages of brown-legged grain mite, Aleuroglyphus ovatus, in a long-term population study

An important aspect of environmental pollution, lead contamination is a widespread problem in several ecosystems. The present study aimed to evaluate the potential effects of low concentration lead stress on the development and reproduction of Aleuroglyphus ovatus. They were fed with artificial diet containing four different concentrations of lead (12.5, 25, 50, and 100 mg/kg). The results showed that there were both accelerating effect of lead (at low concentrations), as well as retarding effects (at high concentrations) on the development of the mite, and lead stress significantly prolonged the immature stages of A. ovatus and this inhibitory effect was greater with greater lead concentrations. The immature stages in the L group were shorter than those in the S group. In the S and L groups, the oviposition periods were significantly longer in the treatments with lower lead concentrations than in the control, while they were significantly shorter in those treatments of higher lead concentrations. Age-specific survival rate (lx) started to decline earlier in the S group, whereas there were no differences between the L group and CK. Age-specific fecundity rate (mx) peaked earlier in the S group than in CK, while mx peaked later in L1 and L2 than in CK. The rm value and net reproduction rate (R0) of treated A. ovatus decreased with increasing lead concentrations. Lower lead concentrations could promote population expansion while higher concentrations could inhibit population size. These results confirmed the developmental effect of lead stress on A. ovatus, highlighting that heavy metal contamination has negative effects on organisms in their natural environment.

Census counts of Common Murres adjusted for timing of breeding are more accurate than counts based on calendar dates

Abstract Climate change has resulted in a marked advancement in the breeding phenology of many bird species. Since the timing of many monitoring programs is based on calendar dates, changes in the timing of birds’ breeding seasons may result in a mismatch with the census period. Using data from a long-term population study of Common Murres (Uria aalge; Common Guillemots in Europe) on Skomer Island, Wales, together with simulations, we show that the 2-week advance in the timing of breeding in Common Murres between 1973 and 2020 has serious implications for the timing of census counts. We show that because censuses have traditionally been conducted during the same fixed calendar period each year, the size of the breeding population has been underestimated. We recommend that censuses of breeding seabirds be made relative to the median egg-laying date rather than on specific calendar dates. Since climate change has resulted in a widespread advance in the timing of birds’ breeding seasons in the northern hemisphere, our results may be relevant to Common Murres at other colonies, and to other bird species worldwide.

Natal environmental conditions modulate senescence of antler length in roe deer

It is now broadly admitted that female reproductive senescence – a decline in reproductive performance with increasing age – occurs in most species, at least among birds and mammals. Although information is more limited, male reproductive senescence has been regularly inferred from the decline in the size or performance of phenotypic traits that underly male reproductive success, particularly secondary sexual traits. However, the degree to which environmental conditions influence the pattern of senescence in sexual traits remains largely unknown. From the analysis of two long-term studies of populations of European roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) subjected to markedly different environmental contexts in the wild, we tested the hypothesis that harsh natal and/or current conditions should lead to earlier and/or stronger rates of senescence in the length of fully-grown antlers than good natal and/or current conditions. We found evidence of similar patterns of antler length senescence in both populations, with an onset of senescence around 7 years of age and a decrease of length by about 1–1.5 cm per additional year of life from 7 years of age onwards. We found that good early-life conditions delay senescence in antler length in roe deer. Our results also revealed that senescent males seem to be unable to allocate substantially to antler growth, confirming that antler size is, therefore, an honest signal of male individual quality. By modulating age-specific allocation to secondary sexual traits, natal and current conditions could influence female mate choice and male–male competition over mates, and as a result age-specific reproductive success, and should be accounted for when studying the dynamics of sexual selection.

Association between dietary carbohydrate intake and risk of type 2 diabetes: a systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies.

Previous meta-analyses have assessed the relationship between carbohydrate intake and type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk; however, they included few studies of Asian populations who have a higher carbohydrate intake and lower insulin secretory capacity than non-Asians. Since the publication of the previous meta-analyses, three further studies of Asian populations have been conducted. Based on this background, the present study aimed to perform an updated systematically examine observational studies concerning the link between dietary carbohydrate intake and T2D risk. We conducted a systematic search for cohort studies that investigated the target association. For each analyzed study, parameter-adjusted risk ratios were used to compare the lowest and highest carbohydrate-intake groups in terms of their risk of incident T2D. The risk ratios were calculated using a random-effects model. Ten publications were analyzed. Overall, carbohydrate intake was found not to be associated with increased risk ratios of incident T2D (risk ratio [RR] = 1.07; 95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 0.94, 1.21; P < 0.01, I2 = 61.9%). However, studies of Asian populations reported that high carbohydrate intake is significantly associated with this risk (RR = 1.29; 95% CI 1.15, 1.45; P = 0.59, I2 = 0.0%). This updated meta-analysis showed that, overall, carbohydrate intake is not associated with the risk of T2D; nevertheless, a significant association exists among Asian populations. To confirm the association between dietary carbohydrate intake and T2D risk observed in this study, further evidence from long-term observational studies of Asian populations is required. The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13340-023-00642-0.

A TEST OF SEMELPARITY IN THE LONG-TERM POPULATION MONITORING OF THE MARSUPIAL Marmosops incanus (DIDELPHIMORPHIA, DIDELPHIDAE)

Semelparity, the life-history strategy characterized by death after first reproduction, is restricted in mammals to only two marsupial families, Dasyuridae in Australasia and Didelphidae in the Neotropics. Among didelphids, studies suggest a semelparous pattern for mouse opossums of the genus Marmosops. These studies have revealed that both sexes may have low survival rates after reproduction in two distinct Atlantic Forest populations. However, the semelparous strategy, which is usually considered a speciesspecific trait, can also be found in only some populations of Dasyuridae species. Thus, in this study, we aimed to investigate the occurrence of the semelparous life strategy in a population of M. incanus in an Atlantic Forest area of the PARNA Serra dos Órgãos, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, through survival estimates using 13-year capture-mark-recapture data from a long-term population study. We established cohorts, grouping the capture histories of individuals born by the end of the breeding season. We built a global model in which survival and recapture rates vary with time and between sexes, in addition to the interaction between these factors. Model selection and averaged survival estimates were in accordance with the semelparous strategy for this population of M. incanus, with survival being affected by both sex and time. Even though we found that the survival of females was higher than that of males as expected, the difference was small. Here we confirm that another population of M. incanus displays a semelparous life-history strategy, supporting previous considerations of museums specimens. Nonetheless, the causes and mechanisms of semelparity in didelphid species are still to be understood.

The effect of mixed vaccination rollout strategy: A modelling study.

Vaccines have measurable efficacy obtained first from vaccine trials. However, vaccine efficacy (VE) is not a static measure and long-term population studies are needed to evaluate its performance and impact. COVID-19 vaccines have been developed in record time and the currently licensed vaccines are extremely effective against severe disease with higher VE after the full immunization schedule. To assess the impact of the initial phase of the COVID-19 vaccination rollout programmes, we used an extended Susceptible - Hospitalized - Asymptomatic/mild - Recovered (SHAR) model. Vaccination models were proposed to evaluate different vaccine types: vaccine type 1 which protects against severe disease only but fails to block disease transmission, and vaccine type 2 which protects against both severe disease and infection. VE was assumed as reported by the vaccine trials incorporating the difference in efficacy between one and two doses of vaccine administration. We described the performance of the vaccine in reducing hospitalizations during a momentary scenario in the Basque Country, Spain. With a population in a mixed vaccination setting, our results have shown that reductions in hospitalized COVID-19 cases were observed five months after the vaccination rollout started, from May to June 2021. Specifically in June, a good agreement between modelling simulation and empirical data was well pronounced.

Population Status of a Regionally Endangered Plant, Lunaria rediviva (Brassicaceae), near the Eastern Border of Its Range.

Long-term studies of plant populations provide valuable knowledge on the influence of various environmental factors on plant species. The status of edge-range species populations is especially important to be studied due to their higher vulnerability to extinction. This paper aimed to study the Lunaria rediviva population at the eastern border of its range (National Park "Smolny", Republic of Mordovia, Russia). The study was carried out in 2013-2018. Assessment of the L. rediviva population was performed on the basis of individual parameters of plants (height of the individual, number of leaves per individual, number of inflorescences, flowers, fruits per one generative individual, and the fruit set), and density of individuals. Ontogenetic structure of the population was identified by distinguishing juvenile, mature vegetative, and reproductive individuals. The relationships between weather conditions (mean values of temperature, air moisture, wind strength, precipitation divided to three decades per month) and population parameters of L. rediviva were identified. Results showed changes in the ontogenetic structure of the population. The type of its population changed from vegetatively oriented to bimodal, with a decrease (R2 = 0.686) in the proportion of mature vegetative individuals. We demonstrated a significant decline in some parameters of the L. rediviva reproduction. We found a significant negative correlation between the fruit set and the moisture at mid-July (r = -0.84, p < 0.05), and wind strength in late May (r = -0.83, p < 0.05) and early June (r = -0.83, p < 0.05). It was found that the number of both flowers and fruits per individual is significantly positively correlated with the precipitation in late April, and they negatively correlated with these parameters and the temperature in late July. We assume that the habitat shading negatively influences the L. rediviva population status.

Knowledge gaps and conservation priorities for west African chelonians

Abstract Defining priorities is important both in research and in conservation, especially when knowledge gaps are hindering successful management. In this review, we quantify the knowledge gaps for all non-marine West African chelonians based on 21 criteria. Additionally, we combine these knowledge gaps with each species’ maximum size, range size, presence in nationally protected areas, and IUCN Red List or TFTSG provisional status to introduce a ranking of species conservation priority in the region. Our analyses revealed a divergence between which species are lacking research studies and which would benefit most from conservation actions, though Cyclanorbis elegans is the species that is both the least-known and most-in-need of conservation. Broadly, Pelomedusidae are in the greatest need of research, yet they are also collectively the least threatened. Conversely, Trionychidae and Testudinidae have received greater research attention in most cases, however, these two families represent the greatest conservation priorities amongst West African chelonians. Our analyses also enabled us to evaluate which criteria representing aspects of chelonian biology have been most overlooked by the scientific community. Priorities for future research include reproductive and long-term population studies, each of which are critical for informing conservation actions and evaluating the results of those actions.

Distribution of humpback whales along the coast of Ecuador and management implications

As part of a long-term population study of humpback whales breeding on the coast of Ecuador (2°S, 81°W), four sites on the central coast were surveyed: Puerto Cayo, Puerto López, La Plata Island and Salinas. The spatial, temporal and age class distributions of 322 groups positioned during the period of 1996-2003 were analysed regarding their distance from the shore and water depth with two statistical methods: one-way ANOVA and linear modelling. The average sighting distance from shore varied between 5.31km in Salinas and 10.16km in Puerto Cayo with mid values in Puerto López and La Plata Island. Average water depth was similar in Puerto López, La Plata Island and Salinas (36-39m) but lower in Puerto Cayo (19.43m). Differences were highly significant in both cases (p&lt;0.01). A progressive but not significant increase in the average distance from shore was found (6.2km in June to 7.17km in September). Sighting depth was constant between June and August (average 35-36m) but decreased significantly in September to 27m (p&lt;0.01). This difference was attributed to the presence of mother-calf pairs in shallower water by the end of the season. Age class analyses using ANOVA showed highly significant differences between groups of adults, and adults with subadults with respect to singleton subadults, and groups containing a mother-calf pair for both distance from shore and depth (p&lt;0.01); however, linear modelling analyses showed only depth was significant (p=0.026). This suggests that depth is a more important determinant of differences in distribution between these age classes than proximity to shore. The sightings distribution showed segregation of both mother-calf pairs (towards shallow waters) and of singleton subadults (towards the boundaries of the surveyed area). Since only eight sightings (2.5%) were in waters deeper than 60m, we propose that depth is a major feature determining humpback whale distribution in these waters. Implications of this coastal distribution are discussed, particularly with respect to bycatch in fishing gear and whalewatching. A review of recent southeast Pacific sightings showed that humpback whales are also abundant in coastal waters to the southwest of Ecuador (3°S) and confirmed that they are scarce offshore. However, whales are more widely distributed in the north of Peru (4°-6°S) where they make the transition between deeper oceanic and shallower coastal waters when arriving at and leaving the breeding area.

Population demography of rare sedges (Eriophorum gracile and Carex livida) north of the Arctic Circle in Murmansk Region and climate change impacts

Species of Cyperaceae are little studied on the population level globally. Also in Murmansk Region, species from this family were not included in long-term population studies of rare plant species whereas other representatives from 21 families were put in [Blinova, 2009]. Experimental works with sedges is often neglected because of taxonomic difficulties and a lack of methods for study populations of this group [Kitamura et al., 2016; Sosnovska, Danylyk, 2017]. Such difficulties became obvious while the IUCN-red data book testing. Of rare sedges studied in this paper Eriophorum gracile is included in the regional Red data book [Kozhin, 2014] and Carex livida is in the Appendix of this book in the group Need of monitoring. &#x0D; &#x0D; The Murmansk Region (6670 N), located in the north-eastern corner of Russian Fennoscandia, is a part of the Atlantic-Arctic zone of temperate belt with a rather mild climate. The region is very heterogeneous. Two latitudinal vegetation zones can be distinguished: tundra and taiga. So, many boreal plant species reach here their northern limit of distribution. Our field work has been conducted in the center part of the region in a recently found rich fen [Blinova, Petrovskij, 2014]. Both study species (Eriophorum gracile и Carex livida) have circumpolar distribution in wetlands of northern hemisphere [Hulten, Fries, 1986], and they are at the northern range in Murmansk Region [Kuzeneva, 1954; Chernov, 1954]. They are polycarpic perennials. An annual shoot has been selected as a counting unit (Fig. 1). In E. gracile only the number of generative shoots has been counted in the field. For non-destructive purposes, from herbarium data, the ratio between generative and vegetative shoots was defined as 1:1. The total population size for this species has been estimated from this ratio. In population of C. livida, the direct counting in the field has been done on 3-5 small plots (0.25*0.25 м2). Lately this value has been recalculated according to the area of population subset. Clusters and subsets have been distinguished in population structure according to suggested aggregation patterns of spatial structure in local plant populations [Blinova, 2018]. Marked population subsets have been monitored several times in the growing period in 2014-2016 years. In the field the boundaries and areas of rich fen and populations (including subsets) have been estimated with the help of GPS navigation device Garmin Dakota 20, in the lab all data are further processed using Garmin Software BaseCamp 4.2.5. Nomenclature for vascular plants is given according to S. K. Czerepanov [1995], for mosses after M. S. Ignatov O. M. Afonina [1992]. &#x0D; &#x0D; Our results show that extremely low (0.2% for Eriophorum gracile) and relatively low (3.1% для Carex livida) population cover is characteristic for a large long-term monitored fen. Spatial aggregation of E. gracile population is structured on very small area (40 м2) whereas C. livida is established on relatively representative area (633 м2). E. gracile develops small population subsets (8 m2 on average) at a distance to next about 70 m in different parts of rich fen. Each such subset contains 9-10 mature individuals on average. C. livida has larger subsets (211 m2 on average) at 30 m away from the neighbor. The size of each subset makes c. 2500 generative shoots. The spatial population pattern of E. gracile shows isolated subsets with single clusters, whereas of C. livida represents isolated subsets with merged clusters. High fluctuations of population size and its subsets are revealed in E. gracile from year to year. The number of generative shoots and air temperature in the growing season (June-September) of the current year establish negative relationship.&#x0D; &#x0D; This study in one of the northernmost populations of Eriophorum gracile confirms other data from different parts of its distribution area that populations of this species are very fragmented and show high fluctuations in the number of generative shoots [Barr 1996; Ksermann, Moser, 1999; Dickenmann, Keel, 2004; Decker et al., 2006; Chatters, Sanderson, 2014]. An analysis of spatial structure of populations has been pointed out that anemochory of E. gracile could be a bottleneck for the population fitness in rich fens conditions, whereas baro- and hydrochory of C. livida promotes further seed germination and survival. Additionally, current climate-changed impacts could cause an extirpation of E. gracile from floristic composition of rich fens, whereas such a threat is minimal for C. livida. Both species need regional protection of their populations. An introduction into culture is essential for further ontogenetic studies and trigger examination of clonal division of labor.

Structure of Equisetum variegatum (Equisetaceae) populations in natural and anthropogenic habitats

Many native plant species colonise anthropogenic habitats, but relatively little information is available on the status and development of their populations under unusual conditions. The most reliable information on the status and performance of plants in particular habitats is obtained through population studies. The study aimed to determine the characteristics of Equisetum variegatum populations occurring in natural and anthropogenic habitats. Nine coenopopulations of Equisetum variegatum occurring in natural and anthropogenic habitats were studied in four administrative districts (Kelmė, Lazdijai, Trakai and Varėna) of Lithuania. The ramet density, shoot height, total number of shoots and the number of fertile and sterile shoots and buds in a ramet were assessed. The density of Equisetum variegatum ramets was significantly higher in natural habitats than in anthropogenic habitats. The largest mean height of shoots was found in shrubland and shallow water habitats, whereas the largest mean number of all shoots, fertile shoots and buds in a ramet was recorded in dry sands. Old shoots in natural habitats comprised a significantly smaller portion (18.1%) of all shoots than in anthropogenic habitats (42.8%). Thus, all the studied traits can be used to evaluate the status of the populations. Long-term studies of Equisetum variegatum populations should be performed to determine how they change in response to the succession of natural and anthropogenic habitats. As the natural habitats of Equisetum variegatum decline, anthropogenic habitats may be considered the refugia for their populations.

Predictive Utility of a Coronary Artery Disease Polygenic Risk Score in Primary Prevention

The clinical utility of polygenic risk scores (PRS) for coronary artery disease (CAD) has not yet been established. To investigate the ability of a CAD PRS to potentially guide statin initiation in primary prevention after accounting for age and clinical risk. This was a longitudinal cohort study with enrollment starting on January 1, 2006, and ending on December 31, 2010, with data updated to mid-2021, using data from the UK Biobank, a long-term population study of UK citizens. A replication analysis was performed in Biobank Japan. The analysis included all patients without a history of CAD and who were not taking lipid-lowering therapy. Data were analyzed from January 1 to June 30, 2022. Polygenic risk for CAD was defined as low (bottom 20%), intermediate, and high (top 20%) using a CAD PRS including 241 genome-wide significant single-nucleotide variations (SNVs). The pooled cohort equations were used to estimate 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk and classify individuals as low (<5%), borderline (5-<7.5%), intermediate (7.5-<20%), or high risk (≥20%). Myocardial infarction (MI) and ASCVD events (defined as incident clinical CAD [including MI], stroke, or CV death). A total of 330 201 patients (median [IQR] age, 57 [40-74] years; 189 107 female individuals [57%]) were included from the UK Biobank. Over the 10-year follow-up, 4454 individuals had an MI. The CAD PRS was significantly associated with the risk of MI in all age groups but had significantly stronger risk prediction at younger ages (age <50 years: hazard ratio [HR] per 1 SD of PRS, 1.72; 95% CI, 1.56-1.89; age 50-60 years: HR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.38-1.53; age >60 years: HR, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.37-1.48; P for interaction <.001). In patients younger than 50 years, those with high PRS had a 3- to 4-fold increased associated risk of MI compared with those in the low PRS category. A significant interaction between CAD PRS and age was replicated in Biobank Japan. When CAD PRS testing was added to the clinical ASCVD risk score in individuals younger than 50 years, 591 of 4373 patients (20%) with borderline risk were risk stratified into intermediate risk, warranting initiation of statin therapy and 3198 of 7477 patients (20%) with both borderline or intermediate risk were stratified as low risk, thus not warranting therapy. Results of this cohort study suggest that the predictive ability of a CAD PRS was greater in younger individuals and can be used to better identify patients with borderline and intermediate clinical risk who should initiate statin therapy.

Density-dependent plasticity in territoriality revealed using social network analysis.

Territories are typically defined as spatially exclusive areas that are defended against conspecifics. Given the spatial nature of territoriality, it is inherently density dependent, but the economics of territoriality also depend on the distribution and abundance of defended resources. Our objectives were to assess the effects of changing population density and food availability on individually based territorial phenotypes. We developed a novel analytical framework that bridges spatially explicit territories with social network analysis to model density-dependent territorial phenotypes. Using the outputs from our data pipeline, we modelled plasticity in territory size and territory intrusion rates in a long-term study population of North American red squirrels Tamiasciurus hudsonicus. Red squirrels defend year-round territories around a central hoard (midden) of white spruce Picea glauca cones. Importantly, white spruce is a masting species that produces large cone crops every 4-7 years (i.e. mast years) in our study area interspersed with non-mast years when few cones are produced. In the spring following mast years, populations are approximately double in size, but are lower in the spring of non-mast years. We predicted that territory size and intrusion rates would decrease as resource abundance, and consequently population density, increased. By contrast, as resource abundance decreased via depletion, and therefore density decreased, territories should increase in size and intrusions should also increase. As we expected, individual territory size and territorial intrusions were negatively density dependent, such that increased density after mast years resulted in smaller territories and fewer intrusions. When considering between-individual variation in plasticity across a density gradient, individuals responded differently to changes in population density within their lifetime. Our results show that territory size and intrusion rates display negative density dependence. When food becomes available in the autumn of a mast year and density in spring of the following year increases, territories shrink in size to effectively a small area around the midden. While our findings for red squirrels are unique compared to other systems, they serve as a reminder that the direction and strength of fundamental ecological relationships can depend on the nature of the system.

Prevalence and long-term trends of arterial hypertension in adolescents aged 14-18 years in Novosibirsk (1989-2019) according to the new international guidelines for management of high blood pressure in adolescence

The high prevalence of arterial hypertension (AH) among the adult population of many countries of the civilized world, incl. Russia (about 40% among people of working age) indicates the need for early detection and prevention of this disease. Assessment of blood pressure (BP) levels in adolescence presents certain methodological difficulties. To date, 3 guidelines based on the results of large population studies of children and adolescents have been developed in the world pediatric practice. However, the application of these guidelines is still not consistent, especially regarding the assessment of BP levels in adolescence.Objective. To study the prevalence and trends of elevated BP levels, including AH, among adolescents aged 14–18 years in Novosibirsk using the main international definitions.Design and methods. In one of the districts of Novosibirsk, cross-sectional population surveys of random representative samples of schoolchildren aged 14–18 years of both sexes were carried out with an interval of 5 years. Seven screenings were carried out from 1989 to 2019, 4579 adolescents were examined. The study program for adolescents was the same for all screenings and included standard questionnaire, measurement of BP by auscultatory method, anthropometry (height, body weight, chest circumference, waist and hips), the study of nutrition by the 24-h dietary recall method, collection of family history by postal parental interviews, biochemical blood tests. BP was measured twice with an interval of 2–3 minutes (before and after filling out the questionnaire), in a sitting position, on the right arm, with an aneroid sphygmomanometer. Systolic BP was recorded with the appearance of the first Korotkoff tone (I phase), diastolic BP — with the disappearance of the tones (V phase). The average of two measurements was included in the analysis. The prevalence of elevated BP levels was assessed using international criteria. To date, several guidelines have been proposed for the diagnosis of elevated BP and AH in adolescence, using both the percentile method (4th report of NHBPEP 2004) and the methods of fixed (AAP 2017) and mixed criteria (ESH 2016 / Russian recommendations 2020). Statistical analysis was performed using the SPSS package for Windows 13,5.Results. The frequency of prehypertension according to the criteria of the 4th report was 40,3% among boys and 26,4% among girls (P &lt; 0,05), the frequency of elevated BP according to the AAP 2017 criteria was 20,4 % and 12,5% in boys and girls, respectively (P &lt; 0,05), the prevalence of high normal BP was 24,6% and 13,5% (P &lt; 0,05) according to the ESH 2016 criteria. The frequency of AH syndrome according to the AAP 2017 criteria was significantly higher when using 4th report definitions and ESH 2016. According to the criteria of 3 different guidelines, there were a fluctual trends of AH in adolescents in Novosibirsk over a 30-year period, without a pronounced trend to decrease or increase. The prevalence of AH according to the AAP 2017 criteria was 2–3 times higher than when using percentiles (4th report) or mixed (percentiles + fixed cut-off points) European criteria (ESH 2016) during all the period.Conclusions. Long-term population studies of adolescents aged 14–18 in Novosibirsk made it possible to study the frequency and trends of elevated levels of BP and AH syndrome in adolescence and to conduct a comparative study of a number of international and domestic criteria.

Fitness consequences of outgroup conflict.

In social species across the animal kingdom, conspecific outsiders threaten the valuable resources of groups and their members. This outgroup conflict is recognised as a powerful selection pressure, but we argue that studies explicitly quantifying the fitness consequences need to be broader in scope: more attention should be paid to delayed, cumulative, and third-party fitness consequences, not just those arising immediately to group members involved in physical contests. In the first part of this review, we begin by documenting how single contests can have survival and reproductive consequences either immediately or with a delay. Then, we step beyond contests to describe fitness consequences that can also result from interactions with cues of rival presence and the general landscape of outgroup threat, and beyond single interactions to describe cumulative effects of territorial pressure and elevated outgroup-induced stress. Using examples from a range of taxa, we discuss which individuals are affected negatively and positively, considering both interaction participants and third-party group members of the same or the next generation. In the second part of the review, we provide suggestions about how to move forward. We highlight the importance of considering how different types of outgroup conflict can generate different selection pressures and of investigating variation in fitness consequences within and between species. We finish by discussing the value of theoretical modelling and long-term studies of natural populations, experimental manipulations, and meta-analyses to develop further our understanding of this crucial aspect of sociality.