Long-term Market Research Articles

Price limit performance: New evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China's ChiNext market

This study examines the impact of daily price limits on market performance and trading activity by using a quasi-natural experiment in China. It focuses on the case of the ChiNext market, where the daily price limits of stocks increased from 10% to 20% in 2020. The results show that, initially, the stock prices and occurrences of 10% price limit hits increase, but then decline after the new price limits have been implemented. The level of trading liquidity and volatility increases significantly, with a greater impact on the short term than the long term. These price limit performances are more pronounced for stocks with additional retail interest. The analysis of detailed trading data reveals that institutional investors initially purchase ChiNext stocks in large quantities, followed by retail investors who purchase smaller quantities. In the long run, institutional investors tend to increase their holdings, while retail investors tend to sell their holdings. Additionally, there is a temporary increase in investor attention, price synchronicity, and stock risks, followed by a decline. The findings suggest that wider price limits increase trading volumes and enhance long-term market efficiency, but encourage immediate price manipulation, causing short-term overreactions and long-term reversals. This study provides valuable insights for building an effective price limit system.

Consumer Behavior on Buying Decision Sanitation Product in Jakarta, Tembagapura, and Bandar Lampung After the End of PPKM

As governments impose movement restrictions to reduce COVID-19 infections, many people experienced changes in daily lives. The utilization of hand sanitizers in public spaces has increased due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Eventually, On December 30, 2022, the Indonesian government ended PPKM – the Indonesian-specific COVID-19 restrictions. Through this paper, researchers determined changes in consumer behavior towards sanitation products, how they impacted consumption, and which product categories were affected after the end of PPKM in Jakarta, Tembagapura, and Bandar Lampung. Research participants were located in three cities with total survey participants were 406. Data was collected using the convenience sampling method and a questionnaire adopting the statement of Liu et al. (2021). In analyzing the collected data, several statistical techniques were used and SEM analysis used AMOS with a two-step process. The results of this study prove that there is no change in consumer behavior in buying sanitation products (M: and SD:) and from the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic to the end of PPKM, cleanliness has become the most important need for comfort and health (M: and SD:). This research can be used to help hand sanitizer manufacturers to rescale their production capacities and will be useful for hand sanitizer and sanitation product manufacturers to prepare their long-term marketing strategy. However, this study only focuses on hand sanitizers, while tons of sanitation products can be covered. Furthermore, this research can be conducted in more than three cities in Indonesia so that the result will be more represent the general Indonesian population. Keywords: Consumer Behavior, Purchase Decisions, Sanitation, The End of PPKM

Preparation and evaluation of petroleum pitch-based carbon materials with three-dimensional structure containing micron-scale carbon sheets for capacitive deionization anode material

Pitch-based carbon materials have long-term market potential as capacitive deionization (CDI) materials owing to their low cost. In this study, micron-scale carbon sheets with superior electrosorption performance and a large Specific surface area (2400 m2 g−1) was successfully prepared by oxidizing pitch with HNO3 combined with the modification of different crosslinking agents. Characterization results show that HNO3 oxidation promote moderate dissociation of pitch, the addition of a crosslinking agent promote the formation of C-O-C as well as pyrrole nitrogen and improve the degree of disorder of the materials, which are key to forming a micron-scale carbon sheet structure and improved electrosorption capacity. In addition, with a 1 mol L−1 NaCl electrolyte and a scan speed of 2 mv s−1, BTP-3 had a large specific capacitance of 328 F g−1. The desalination absorption capacity was 40.2 mg g−1 (500 mg L−1 NaCl, 1.2 V). The NaNO3 absorption capacity was 30 mg g−1 (500 mg L−1 NaNO3, 1.2 V). Furthermore, DFT calculation results showed that ether bonds and pyrrole nitrogen act as double reaction centers to promote the ability of Cl− to lose electrons.

Studying the role of fiscal policy to utilize natural resources development: Leads to sustainable development goals

Every country's primary economic objective is to accomplish sustainable economic growth. In this area, there has been much discussion of the significance of natural resources in the research; moreover, there has yet to be much research on how these resources affect the monetary inclusion of emerging nations. This research utilized China's management of funds, technological development, and unpredictability of economic strategy to examine the viability of the resources curse theory concerning financial growth. Quantile autoregressive distribution lag (QARDL), a cutting-edge methodology, was used to evaluate the asymmetry relationship between variables from 1970 to 2015. The resources constraint theory, which contends that the rents from environmental assets constrain economic advancement, is backed up by research data for China. Volatility in economic strategy also harms financial growth. Contrarily, financial diversification and technical advancement sped up economic development and offset the drawbacks of environmental assets. According to the results, appropriate natural resource utilization, funding redistribution at local administration levels, and a shift towards green initiatives should all be put in place as semiconducting short- and long-term marketing strategies and regulatory requirements to turn the blight into a full endorsement.

Parameterised response zero intelligence traders

I introduce parameterised response zero intelligence (PRZI), a new form of zero intelligence (ZI) trader intended for use in simulation studies of the dynamics of continuous double auction markets. Like Gode and Sunder’s classic ZIC trader, PRZI generates quote prices from a random distribution over some specified domain of discretely valued allowable quote prices. Unlike ZIC, which uses a uniform distribution to generate prices, the probability distribution in a PRZI trader is parameterised in such a way that its probability mass function (PMF) is determined by a real-valued control variable s in the range [-1.0,+1.0]\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$[-1.0, +1.0]$$\\end{document} that determines the strategy for that trader. When s=0\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$s=0$$\\end{document}, a PRZI trader behaves identically to the ZIC strategy, with a uniform PMF; but when s≈±1\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$s \\approx \\pm 1$$\\end{document} the PRZI trader’s PMF becomes maximally skewed to one extreme or the other of the price range, thereby making it more or less “urgent” in the prices that it generates, biasing the quote price distribution towards or away from the trader’s limit price. To explore the co-evolutionary dynamics of populations of PRZI traders that dynamically adapt their strategies, I show initial results from long-term market experiments in which each trader uses a simple stochastic hill-climber algorithm to repeatedly evaluate alternative s-values and choose the most profitable at any given time. In these experiments the profitability of any particular s-value may be non-stationary because the profitability of one trader’s strategy at any one time can depend on the mix of strategies being played by the other traders at that time, which are each themselves continuously adapting. Results from these market experiments demonstrate that the population of traders’ strategies can exhibit rich dynamics, with periods of stability lasting over hundreds of thousands of trader interactions interspersed by occasional periods of change. Python source code for PRZI traders, and for the stochastic hill-climber, have been made publicly available on GitHub.

Impact of capital market internationalization on stock markets: Evidence from the inclusion of China A-shares in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index

This paper assesses the short- and long-term market reaction to including A-shares in the Morgan Stanley Capital International Emerging Markets Index. In the short term, the underlying stocks gain cumulative excess returns before and after the announcement date, reflecting a positive signal to the market and presenting a significant index effect. In the long run, including A-shares in the index may improve market quality by influencing stock market synchronization and liquidity and turnover rate. Therefore, we suggest that emerging market countries should actively internationalize their capital markets, introduce foreign investors, increase investor awareness, and improve their capital market structures.

The Airbnb rent premium and the crowding-out of long-term rentals

Concerns about crowding out of long-term rentals have led many cities to impose limits on the days that properties can be let via Airbnb or similar platforms in a given year. However, so far, there has been little research into the effect of such measures. Using micro-level data on long-term rental and Airbnb contracts for Sydney, Australia, we first estimate how much more landlords can earn on Airbnb compared to the long-term rental market. We use three different methods to control for differences in the quality of Airbnb and long-term rentals (hedonic regression, switching model, and matching approach) and find that, on average the weekly Airbnb rent is nearly double that in the long-term market. This Airbnb rent premium reflects the higher costs borne by Airbnb landlords. Consistent with a spatial equilibrium, landlords require a higher Airbnb rent premium in postcodes with a higher average time since the last review (a proxy for the Airbnb vacancy rate). Similarly, we find that Airbnb rent premia and time-since-last-review are lower in cheaper postcodes. It is therefore important to recognize that the impact of day restrictions is likely to be felt more in the cheaper rather than more touristic areas of a city.

Investigating the deployment of initial public charging infrastructure: Planning-based VS market-based approaches

An efficient planning of public charging infrastructure is crucial for the uptake of electric vehicles, which requires not only the cost-effectiveness of charging infrastructure construction, but also the effects in accelerating the process of EV promotion. However, the existing studies on the layout of public charging facilities have rarely taken both of these aspects into account. This study aimed to enrich the available literature by evaluating planning-based versus market-based approaches to installing charging piles and optimizing the scheme for initially deploying public charging infrastructure. An agent-based model that integrated the individual heterogeneity of manufacturers and consumers was constructed, with parameter settings that were defined based on the Chinese market. The impact of the initial deployment of public charging piles was compared in terms of planning-based and market-based strategies. The main results indicated a significantly positive effect of public charging piles construction. The market share of passenger EVs at 2040 could increase from 23.58% to 39.38% at most compared to the baseline scenario. Among the two approaches to deploying charging piles, the planning-based strategy proved superior in cultivating a niche market; however, the market-based approach was more cost-efficient from the perspective of long-term market cultivation, allowing savings of up to 14.2% of the investment costs. The study findings provide new evidence and policy implications for the long-term promotion of electric vehicles.

Revisiting Financial Volatility in the Indonesian Islamic Stock Market: GARCH – MIDAS Approach

Introduction/main objectives: The aim of this research is to study the impact of macroeconomic variables on the Indonesian Islamic stock market’s volatility. Background issues: To predict the stock market’s volatility, daily or high-frequency data has been applied to the model’s explanatory variables with the same data frequency. However, when it comes to the macroeconomic variables as volatility drivers, the data is low-frequency, such as weekly, monthly, or quarterly. The current study uses a model which treats the data equally. Novelty: This study employs the mixed data sampling (MIDAS) model, which allows data from multiple frequencies to be included in the same model. This model can combine daily stock returns’ data with monthly or quarterly macro­economic data. Hence, this is the first paper to study the determinants of the volatility of Indonesia's Islamic stock index using GARCH-MIDAS. Research Methods: The Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity GARCH-MIDAS model captures the short-run from the long-term element of volatility; the findings show the asymmetry effect for the short-term element’s result. Finding/Results: Inflation does not influence long-term market volatility. Moreover, after the 2008 crisis, the study shows that inflation and short-term interest rates positively influenced market volatility. Conclusion: The positive effect of inflation suggests that stocks can function as inflation hedges for stock investors in the long run. Further, the positive impact of interest rates implies that Muslim investors use the conventional short-term interest rates as a benchmark for investment in Shari’ah-compliant instruments.

Analyzing The Co-branding Marketing Strategy of UNIQLO

Co-branding is an alliance in which businesses join up with other brand names to form joint brands in order to improve brand image and increase product quality signals. Co-branding is a common marketing strategy. As a long-term market strategy, UNIQLO prioritizes co-branding. The goal of this research is to examine the relationship and influence of co-branding, brand image, and purchase intent. This study analyzed and summarized the relationship between co-branding and brand image, the relationship between co-branding and buy intention, and the relationship between brand image and purchase intention using literary analysis. Using UNIQLO as an example, this study did a SWOT analysis. This study suggested that co-branding influences brand image, which leads to customer purchase intentions, and that diverse brand images influence purchase intentions. Furthermore, UNIQLO's business approach ensures co-branding. The plasticity of UNIQLO apparel creates the groundwork for co-branding and establishes a positive brand image for the brand with comfort and simplicity as the brand concept. At the same time, UNIQLO's actual apparel quality issues and market joint involution have jeopardized the company's co-branding plan. As a result, it is vital to make proper use of the co-branding strategy, connect and build a high-quality brand image, make proper use of brand advantages, prevent risks, and encourage the improvement of consumers' purchase intents.

Empirical evidence for the edge of a centralized regional market over a cross-province balancing market in allocating electricity resources: A case study of Yunnan in China

Alongside China’s new round of electricity reform, Yunnan has implemented medium- and long-term market reform in the electricity sector since 2015 with little progress seen in establishing an electricity spot market. To this end, this paper attempts to identify the pathway to an electricity spot market for Yunnan through its realities and lessons learned from Europe. As such, on the ground of the status quo of the energy mix, generation features, load structure and profiles, power supply–demand situations, and market progress in the Yunnan electricity system, this paper reviews two classical market frameworks commonly adopted worldwide, from the perspectives of market organizing and the core optimization model broadly used in coordinating system operation and clearing the market. Then the contrast of Yunnan with the European experience is analyzed with respect to the energy mix, generation, transmission, and exchange, as well as the political and economic institutional arrangements, market conditions, and driving forces. Moreover, the Yunnan case study scenarios and likely consequences and benefits under different market frameworks are further analyzed to verify the edge of a centralized optimal-power-flow-based regional market over a decentralized cross-province balancing market, in productively reducing price distortion, allocating resources, maintaining power supply–demand balance at all times, and promoting renewable energy integration across a wider region. Finally, policy suggestions concerning the pathway to an electricity spot market are provided for Yunnan in further deepening its electricity reform.

주식분할 공시에 대한 장·단기 효과

Purpose - The purpose of this study is to re-examine the disclosure effect of stock splits and long-term performance after stock splits using stock split data over the past 10 years, and infer the motivation (signal or opportunism) of stock splits. In addition, we focus on exploring the determinants of the short- and long-term market response to stock splits.
 Design/methodology/approach - We measure the short-term market response to a stock split and the long-term stock performance after the stock split announcement using the event study method. We analyze whether there is a difference in the long-term and short-term market response to a stock split according to various company characteristics through univariate analysis and regression analysis.
 Findings - In the case of the entire sample, a statistically significant positive excess return is observed on the stock split announcement date, and the excess return during the 24-month holding period after the stock split do not show a difference from zero. In particular, the difference between short-term and long-term returns on stock splits is larger in companies with a large stock split ratio, small companies, large growth potential, and companies with a combination of financial events after a stock split.
 Research implications or Originality - The results of this study suggest that at least the signal hypothesis for a stock split does not hold in the Korean stock market. On the other hand, it suggests that there is a possibility that a stock split can be abused by the manager's opportunistic motive, and that this opportunism can be discriminated depending on the size of the stock split, corporate characteristics, and financing plan.

Sufficiency and the dematerialization of fashion: How digital substitutes are creating new market opportunities

The global fashion industry represents an over US $1 trillion market but is one of the most wasteful industries in the world. Digital fashion has the potential to decouple some crucial aspects of the fashion industry from their material requirements. Considering the growing interest around the metaverse, nonfungible tokens, the rapid evolution of augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR) technology, and the growing presence of major fashion brands in gaming, an understanding of the commercial feasibility of digital fashion is becoming increasingly necessary. In this article, we explore the commercial feasibility of digital fashion and expose a strategically significant alignment of digital substitutes with four emerging consumer expectations: excitement, utility, relatability, and circularity. Our research shows that these expectations are contingent upon consumers’ increasingly sufficiency-oriented mindset and the modes of consumption this mindset generates. In developing what we call a sufficiency model, this article provides companies with the heuristic tools necessary to gain future-looking and practical insights to help them navigate this dematerialization of consumption and to identify long-term market opportunities within this area. Specifically, we offer eight suggestions to help companies take their first steps into this emerging space.

COVID-19, Russia-Ukraine war and interconnectedness between stock and crypto markets: a wavelet-based analysis

ABSTRACT This paper aims to investigate the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia-Ukraine war on the interconnectedness between the US and China stock markets, major cryptocurrency and commodity markets using the wavelet coherence approach over the period from January 1 2016 to April 18 2022. The aim is to understand how the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war have affected the hedging efficiency of volatile crypto-currencies and gold. Wavelet coherency analysis unveils perceptual differences between the short-term and longer-term market reactions. In the short-run, we find strong co-movements during the first and second waves of the pandemic. During the first wave, longer-term investors were driven by the belief of future pandemic demise. They make use of time diversification that results in positive returns. During the Russia-Ukraine war, S&P 500 leads Bitcoin, BNB, and Ripple whereas Ethereum leads S&P 500 and SSE.

Research on the influence of enterprise innovation input on stock returns in short- and long-term markets-- Based on the data of listed companies in China’s science and technology sector

Based on the data of listed companies in China's science and technology sector from 2014 to 2021, this paper studies the short-term market and long-term market performance of innovation input of these companies. The findings are as follows: (1) In the short-term market, innovation input and stock return are negatively correlated, which may be related to the lagging effect of innovation input on the company. After the lagging of innovation input, the correlation becomes positive and significant. This conclusion is still valid after the change of explanatory variables;(2) In the long-term market, enterprise innovation input and stock return generally show positive correlation, but it may also be affected by the bottleneck period of R&D, resulting in the first decrease and then increase, and this phenomenon is still valid after the change of explanatory variables.

Social Media Advertising for Achieving Long-term Marketing Objectives

Increasing competition in consumer markets forces businesses to elaborate marketing plans focused on long-term perspectives. This is important in today's fluctuating and unpredictable business environments, where a high level of competitiveness and a positive reputation is the premise of survival for a business. Otherwise, it will be unable to retain its share of consumer markets and make plans focused on long-term periods. In this regard, social media advertising is one of the most powerful strategies to reach various marketing goals: brand awareness and high brand value, positive reputation and word of mouth, growing customer base, high ROAS (return on ad spend) in short-term and CLV (customer lifetime value) in the long run. Therefore, it is necessary to research social media advertising to achieve long-term marketing goals. The paper deals with various issues, including social media advertising opportunities, ways of attracting and retaining customers, raising brand awareness, and elaborating strategies focused on long-term results. The discussion provided in the paper is a result of the literature review and the author's observations. Each part of the paper contains recommendatory remarks for achieving long-term marketing goals by using social media advertising strategies. A brief conclusion summarizes the paper.

Decision-Making of Discretionary Goodwill Impairments—Evidence from Publicly Listed Firms in China

ABSTRACT With the wave of M&A, total amount of goodwill balances has been accumulated to an enormous number in Chinese capital market. This study uses new independent variables to examine the determinants of goodwill impairments and to study the decision-making of discretionary goodwill impairments. First, this study investigates short-term and long-term market reaction of goodwill impairment announcements from 2019 to 2021 by using the event study method. Results indicate that goodwill impairments are only significantly associated with short-term cumulative abnormal return, on average. Then, based on the panel data of companies with goodwill balance from 2007 to 2020, logistic regression findings indicate that the companies without risk of financial loss have a higher probability of withdrawing goodwill impairments, on average; companies with stable operation have a higher probability of withdrawing goodwill impairments, on average. Result shows the discretion was used in goodwill impairments decision-making.

More Integrated than Ever? Long-Term Market and Policy Drivers of Intra-Asian Trade

Since the Doha Round stalemate after 2001, trade liberalization has progressed through regional trade agreements (RTAs) and East and Southeast Asia is not unfamiliar with this. Before assessing the effectiveness of recent trade agreements, the long tradition of trade exchange in this region that has lasted for more than 2,000 years necessitates an understanding of the evolution of intra-Asian trade across history. In this regard, this study contributes to the literature examining whether present intra-Asian trade is more or less intense than before 1938. This research outperforms previous studies using a gravity model that controls for changes in GDP and trade costs in the region across four different time periods (between 1840 and 2018). The results show that contemporary regional trade in East and Southeast Asia is slightly less intense than before World War II. A second question addressed is the relevance of trade agreements after the 1985 Plaza Accord on trade integration, compared with market determinants. A second gravity model for regional imports after 1986 is regressed on both policy and market indicators, indicating that the latest wave of intra-Asian trade is characterized by trade complementarities that are fueled by regional foreign direct investment, and free trade agreements are less effective. This result is validated through a network analysis demonstrating the symbiosis between trade and investment flows in the region, which should be considered in RTAs that are in place or in negotiation to take intra-Asian trade beyond its historical limits.

International Trade, Labour Market and Economic Growth in Long Term

General global trend in advanced economies indicates decreasing working hours and increasing labour productivity. The aim of the research is to examine the existing relationships between hours worked, labour productivity and international trade in the long-term. In the study, OECD and more in detail, some EU countries (Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Poland, Germany) are selected. The research period is 1995–2021. The results indicate that employees are working fewer hours, receiving more and generating larger economic output per person employed. This relation is detected in many EU countries. In the long term, advanced and stable economies (such as Germany) differ from emerging and previously so-called transition economies (Poland, Latvia etc.) in the EU. More efficient use of labour resources is linked with both application of modern technologies and the growing importance of high-tech industries that lead to higher economic output. High energy costs impact the selection of technologies, replacement to more efficient ones and innovations in the production process, transportation and storage. The results argue that high-tech exports are strongly linked with high-tech imports due to high import dependency. Faster well-balanced recovery and stable performance are expected in the majority of countries and market segments domestically in the post-COVID era.

Analysis of Cross-industry M&A in the New Energy Era: a Case Study of Dexin Transport

Under the strategic vision of green economy and the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, China's new energy industry has entered a new stage of high-quality development. Meanwhile, the scale of M&A of Chinese enterprises began to increase rapidly after 2007 as more and more enterprises explore diversification strategy and seek business transformation. In this context, this paper explores the motivations and performance of enterprises' cross-industry merger in the new energy era by studying the case of Dexin Transport's cross-industry merger with Zhihong Precision which realized its transformation to the new energy industry. This paper analyzes the status of related companies, the prospection of related industries and the companies’ financial situation to explore the motivation of cross-industry mergers. We also evaluate the performance of the merger from the perspective of short-term market effect, status of transformation, long-term market performance and financial situation, and gives relevant investment suggestions. Based on the analysis, strategic transformation and cross-industry M&A are feasible choices for companies whose main businesses are limited in development and companies in financial distress. On the other hand, it is essential to be farsighted in the selection of the target industry. The development potential and market recognition of the target industry are the key to the improvement of the company's future performance and financial condition. These results present guiding significance for enterprises in similar circumstances and provides practical reference for enterprises with business transformation or upgrading plans and merger plans.