Long-term Interest Rates Research Articles

A Keynesian analysis of Canadian government securities yields

Keynes argued that the short-term interest rate is the main driver of the long-term interest rate on government bonds. This paper empirically models the relationship between the short-term interest rate and long-term government securities yields in Canada, after controlling for other important financial variables. The statistical analysis uses high-frequency daily data from 1990 to 2018 to examine the behavioral dynamics of the long-term interest rate. The empirical results show that the actions of the Bank of Canada are key drivers of Canadian government securities yields in the long run, which supports the Keynesian perspective. There is a positive association between long-term bond yields and the Canadian federal government’s net debt to GDP ratio, but the effect is fairly modest. An important implication of these findings is that the Bank of Canada’s actions can have a decisive effect on the long-term interest rate over the long horizon. JEL codes : E43, E50, E60, G10, G12

The effects of the ECB’s expanded asset purchase programme

Abstract This paper provides empirical evidence on the financial and macroeconomic impact of the news associated to the announcement launching the ECB’s expanded asset purchase programme (APP). We proxy the APP announcement shock with an announcement variable derived from the institutional features of the APP and survey-based evidence. The variable is used in a time-varying coefficient VAR model with stochastic volatility to estimate the effects of the announcement shock. The evidence suggests that this shock had a significant upward effect on both real economic activity and HICP inflation in the euro area. The response of long-term interest rates gave rise to a flattening of the yield curve in the short term, followed by a steepening in the medium term. Several channels of transmission appear to have been activated, including the portfolio rebalancing channel, the exchange rate channel and the credit channel.

Estimates of r* Consistent with a Supply-Side Structure and a Monetary Policy Rule for the U.S. Economy

We estimate the natural rate of interest (r*) using a semi-structural model of the U.S. economy that jointly characterizes the trend and cyclical factors of key macroeconomic variables such as output, the unemployment rate, inflation, and short- and long-term interest rates. We specify a monetary policy rule and an equation that characterizes the 10-year Treasury yield to exploit the information provided by both interest rates to infer r*. However, the use of a monetary policy rule with a sample that spans the Great Recession and its aftermath poses a challenge because of the effective lower bound. We devise a Bayesian estimation technique that incorporates a Tobit-like specification to deal with the censoring problem. We compare and validate our model specifications using pseudo out-of-sample forecasting exercises and Bayes factors. Our results show that the smoothed value of r* declined sharply around the Great Recession, eventually falling below zero, and has remained negative since then. Our results also indicate that obviating the censoring would imply higher estimates of r* than otherwise.

A Counterfactual Economic Analysis of COVID-19 Using a Threshold Augmented Multi-Country Model

This paper develops a threshold-augmented dynamic multi-country model (TGVAR) to quantify the macroeconomic effects of COVID-19. We show that there exist threshold effects in the relationship between output growth and excess global volatility at individual country levels in a significant majority of advanced economies and in the case of several emerging markets. We then estimate a more general multi-country model augmented with these threshold effects as well as long term interest rates, oil prices, exchange rates and equity returns to perform counterfactual analyses. We distinguish common global factors from trade-related spillovers, and identify the Covid-19 shock using GDP growth forecast revisions of the IMF in 2020Q1. We account for sample uncertainty by bootstrapping the multi-country model estimated over four decades of quarterly observations. Our results show that the Covid-19 pandemic will lead to a significant fall in world output that is most likely long-lasting, with outcomes that are quite heterogenous across countries and regions. While the impact on China and other emerging Asian economies are estimated to be less severe, the United States, the United Kingdom, and several other advanced economies may experience deeper and longer-lasting effects. Non-Asian emerging markets stand out for their vulnerability. We show that no country is immune to the economic fallout of the pandemic because of global interconnections as evidenced by the case of Sweden. We also find that long-term interest rates could fall significantly below their recent lows in core advanced economies, but this does not seem to be the case in emerging markets.

The impact of macroeconomic variables on credit risk: Evidence from Indonesian business sector level data

This study aims to empirically examine the effect of macroeconomic variables on credit risk in each business sector in Indonesia. Using time-series quarterly data during the period 2011q1-2019q2, this study utilized the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The results of this study explain that macroeconomic variables namely GDP growth in the long run have a significant negative effect on credit risk in 6 sectors and in the short term have a significant negative effect on 6 sectors. Inflation has a significant positive effect in the long run on one sector, namely the provision of accommodation and provision of food and drink, and a significant negative effect on 6 sectors, in the short term inflation has a significant positive effect on 7 sectors and a significant negative effect on one sector, namely education services. The last variable is the long-term loan interest rate which has a positive effect on 7 sectors and in the short term has a significant positive effect on 6 sectors on the high value of credit risk in each business sector in Indonesia. The result indicating that macroeconomic variables have a real impact on credit risk.

Yield Curve and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from a DSGE Model with Housing

The slope of the yield curve has long been found to be a useful predictor of future economic activity, but the relationship is unstable. One change we have identified in this paper is that, starting from the 1990s, movements at the long end of the yield curve have an increase in predictive power. We use a medium-scale DSGE model with a housing sector and a yield curve as a guide to find out the sources of such change. The model implies that an increase in the short-term interest rate and a decrease in the long-term interest rate have different impacts on the economy, and to use the slope as a predictor one needs to distinguish movements at the two ends of the yield curve. Based on simulated data from the model, we find that nominal wage rigidities and the capital adjustment costs are closely related to the predictive power of the yield curve. This result is further confirmed with actual data.

The “black box” of the interest rate channel of monetary policy

In the economic literature authors believe that central banks manage long-term interest rates on loans through the short-term money market interest rate in order to maintain price stability and balanced economic growth. However, macroeconomic theory tells extremely sparingly about the interest rate channel of monetary policy. In general terms, it conducts changes through a term premium and expectations in the government securities market. In applied research, economists only observe the final reaction of lending rates to the non-financial sector. Economists traditionally believe that the interest rate channel requires a developed financial sector. In some cases, in particular, at zero rates or in a small open economy that depends on the exchange rate, the interest rate channel works poorly. However, its effectiveness can be maintained without developed financial markets. The answer is the pricing of banking loans.

A Counterfactual Economic Analysis of COVID-19 Using a Threshold Augmented Multi-County Model

This paper develops a threshold-augmented dynamic multi-country model (TGVAR) to quantify the macroeconomic effects of Covid-19. We show that there exist threshold effects in the relationship between output growth and excess global volatility at individual country levels in a significant majority of advanced economies and in the case of several emerging markets. We then estimate a more general multi-country model augmented with these threshold effects as well as long term interest rates, oil prices, exchange rates and equity returns to perform counterfactual analyses. We distinguish common global factors from trade-related spillovers, and identify the Covid-19 shock using GDP growth forecast revisions of the IMF in 2020Q1. We account for sample uncertainty by bootstrapping the multi-country model estimated over four decades of quarterly observations. Our results show that the Covid-19 pandemic will lead to a significant fall in world output that is most likely long-lasting, with outcomes that are quite heterogeneous across countries and regions. While the impact on China and other emerging Asian economies are estimated to be less severe, the United States, the United Kingdom, and several other advanced economies may experience deeper and longer-lasting effects. Non-Asian emerging markets stand out for their vulnerability. We show that no country is immune to the economic fallout of the pandemic because of global interconnections as evidenced by the case of Sweden. We also find that long-term interest rates could fall significantly below their recent lows in core advanced economies, but this does not seem to be the case in emerging markets.

Heterogeneity in the Fiscal Reaction Function: An Emperical Analysis for EU Member States

This paper studies heterogeneity in the fiscal reaction function for European Union members by resorting to the unconditional quantile regression estimation. Based on annual observations spanning from 2005 to 2018, the results point to significant asymmetries concerning the fiscal response measured in terms of the cyclically adjusted primary balance to different covariates. First, the primary deficit has a stronger reaction to debt across the lower quantile, which becomes weaker as the balance reaches a surplus. This indicates the prevalence of fiscal discipline to ensure the public finance sustainability. Moreover, the life-expectancy negatively affects the fiscal position and the response is the highest compared to other covariates, which can diminish the debt and business stabilizing response. Governments seem to run more pronounced pro-cyclical fiscal policy when the fiscal position is already deteriorated. These empirical evidences are questioning current as well as future policy design particularly against the background of the recent pandemic situation exerting supplementary social and financial burden on the countries. In addition, the level of economic development matters for the response pattern and the reaction is stronger and positive when countries face poorer fiscal positions. Also, an increase in the longterm interest rate amplifies the deterioration of fiscal balance especially when its condition is already bad. Finally, our estimations show that the fiscal position improves as an effect of educational attainment and of external position especially when the former reaches surplus.

Determining the Optimal Concession Period in Cancer Hospital Project using Public-Private Partnership (PPP) with Availability Payment Scheme

The construction of Cancer Hospital in city of X which require total Capital Expenditure of Rp 1,135,834,554,688 can answer the need of comprehensive cancer services in Indonesia. But due to limited local government budgets, forcing local government to find alternative funding through Public Private Partnership (PPP) scheme. One of the newest PPP scheme at the moment is the Availability Payment (AP) scheme.
 Through this research, authors analyze the optimal concession period and the feasibility of this investment plan by calculating the required Capital Expenditures, Operating Cost, and other expense and Risk embedded to the project. The optimal concession period is analyzed by simulation of different concession period scheme ranging from 10-25 years and find the lowest required Availability Payment. The feasibility of the cancer hospital project is analyzed by using Discounted Cash Flow parameter which are Net Present Value, Internal Rate of Return and Payback Period. The risk embedded to the project is analyzed by using sensitivity, scenario and monte carlo analysis.
 From the result of Availability Payment calculation, the optimal concession period for this project is 22 years, this period scenario generates AP payment of Rp 287,712,786,883. The result of this project is financially feasible with positive Net Present Value of Rp 95,490,595,725, the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of 12,66% which greater than Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) of 11.92% , and Payback Period of 11,17 years. This Cancer hospital Project is financially safe to build by business entity (BUP). From 10,000 trials of Monte Carlo simulation, the project NPV will lies between Rp 59,335,915,203 to Rp 121,260,967,584 with 95% certainties with worst case scenario NPV still positive Rp 40,041,126,128. Based on the sensitivity analysis the COGS expense is the variable that most affecting the overall NPV of this project, followed by the long-term debt interest rate.

Sensitivity of the Stock Return of Westpac Group to the Change in the Long-Term Interest Rate

The aim of this paper is analyzing the sensitivity of the stock return of a Westpac group to the change in the long-term interest rate by using time series data covering from 1997 to 2019 with total 275 observation.

Japan’s impactful augmentation of quantitative easing sovereign-bond purchases

This article examines how and to what extent large-scale government bond purchases in the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy affected two components of long-term interest rates over the period 2009–2015. The article divides market yields on popular 5 and 10-year government bonds into future policy-rate expectations with uncertainty and a specific type of term premia required by investors for the bonds’ demand/supply imbalances, by using overnight index swap rates as a proxy for the former. The Bank of Japan augmented the purchases substantially by starting Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing (QQME) in 2013. The QQME became impactful in the sense that it encouraged investors to improve the first component whilst reducing the second component. These appeared mainly as persisting announcement-effects – upward level shifts of the expectations and downward ones of the term premia. The reduction of term premia was much greater for the 10-year maturity than for 5-year one and strengthened after an additional expansion of the QQME in 2014. The QQME is estimated to have enhanced 5-year sovereign bond yields by 11.9 basis points (bps) a month on average whilst reducing 10-year ones by 8.3 bps. The impact on the 5-year yields turned to be negative after the QQME expansion.

How Does Public Debt Affect the Indian Macroeconomy? A Structural VAR Approach

The study investigates the macroeconomic effects of public debt in India during 1980–2017 using a structural vector autoregression framework. The objective is to examine the impact of public debt on the interest rate, investment, inflation and economic growth in India. The results of the impulse response functions show that public debt has an adverse impact on economic growth but a positive impact on the long-term interest rate in the short run and a mixed effect (both negative and positive) on investment and inflation. We also find that domestic debt has a more adverse impact on the economy than external debt. The estimated variance decomposition analysis finds that much of the variation in selected macro variables are explained by public debt and growth in India. This study suggests that public debt especially domestic debt should be controlled and channelled productively to have a favourable impact on the economy. JEL Classification: H63, O40, C40

The Spillover Effects of the US Unconventional Monetary Policy: New Evidence from Asian Developing Countries

This paper aims to trace the monthly responses of equity prices, long-term interest rates, and exchange rates in Asian developing markets to the US unconventional monetary policy (UMP). The main research question is to explore whether UMP shocks exist in those markets. We also consider the differences in the mean responses of those asset prices between traditional and non-traditional monetary policy phases. To address such concerns, we employ a panel vector autoregression with exogenous variables (Panel VARX) model and estimate the model by the least-squares dummy variable (LSDV) estimator in three different periods spanning from 2004M2 to 2018M4. The first finding is that UMP shocks from the US are associated with a surge in equity prices, a decline in long-term interest rates, and an appreciation of currencies in Asian developing markets. In contrast, the conventional monetary policy shocks from the US seem to exert adverse effects on these recipient countries. These empirical results suggest that the policymakers in Asian developing countries should cautiously take into account the spillover effects from the US unconventional monetary policy once it is executed.

The Effect of Fiscal Programs with Money Financing and Yield Curve Control

We study monetary policy in a model where long-term interest rate variability dampens the fiscal multiplier. A fixed money supply limits this variability. Moreover, a flexible money supply rule that only responds to government spending, and is otherwise fixed, further amplifies the fiscal multiplier and improves household welfare. Yield curve control, or reserve management by the central bank to reduce long-term rate variability, is most effective when the money supply responds endogenously to support a Taylor rule interest rate policy. In the fixed and flexible money supply cases, there is limited fiscal multiplier amplification at the zero lower bound.

Robust long-term interest rate risk hedging in incomplete bond markets

AbstractPricing ultra-long-dated pension liabilities under the market-consistent valuation is challenged by the scarcity of the long-term market instruments that match or exceed the terms of pension liabilities. We develop a robust self-financing hedging strategy which adopts a min–max expected shortfall hedging criterion to replicate the long-dated liabilities for agents who fear parameter misspecification. We introduce a backward robust least squares Monte Carlo method to solve this dynamic robust optimization problem. We find that both naive and robust optimal portfolios depend on the hedging horizon and the current funding ratio. The robust policy suggests taking more risk when the current funding ratio is low. The yield curve constructed by the robust dynamic hedging portfolio is always lower than the naive one but is higher than the model-based yield curve in a low-rate environment.

Saving and Investment Financing: Different Approaches

ABSTRACT Lavoie and Zezza (2020. “A Simple Stock-Flow Consistent Model with Short-Term and Long-Term Debt.” Review of Political Economy, forthcoming.) present a stock-flow consistent model which critically refers to a recent work of mine (Sardoni, C. 2019. “Investment and Saving in a Dynamic Context: The Contributions of Athanasios (Tom) Asimakopulos.” Review of Political Economy 31 (2): 233–246.) concerned with the complex relation between saving, interest rates, finance and investment. This paper comments on Lavoie’s and Zezza’s interpretation of Sardoni’s position and results and, in turn, presents some critical observations about Lavoie’s and Zezza’s own model. The focus is on the relation between the marginal propensity to save and the long-term interest rate.

Country-level effects of the ECB's expanded asset purchase programme

ABSTRACT This paper evaluates the macroeconomic effects of the European Central Bank's (ECB) Expanded asset purchase programme (APP) on Latvia and other euro area jurisdictions and investigates the cross-border transmission mechanism. To that end, we employ two different vector autoregressive (VAR) models, namely a bilateral structural VAR with block exogeneity (BSVAR-BE) and a multi-country mixed cross-section global VAR with stochastic volatility (MCS-BGVAR-SV). We find that the APP had a limited and weakly significant impact on Latvia's output while the effect on inflation has been robust due to depreciation of the euro. Regarding other jurisdictions, results suggest that the ECB's asset purchases had a larger impact on industrial production in the countries where it drove down long-term interest rates the most via portfolio rebalancing channel. Despite that, our evidence suggests that the APP was mainly transmitted to inflation via exchange rate depreciation rather than through aggregate demand-driven shifts in the Phillips curve.

A Simple Stock-Flow Consistent Model with Short-Term and Long-Term Debt: A Comment on Claudio Sardoni

ABSTRACT In a recent article of this journal, Claudio Sardoni ([2019]. ‘Investment and Saving in a Dynamic Context: The Contribution of Athanasios (Tom) Asimakopulos.’ Review of Political Economy 31 (2): 233–246) made four claims: (1) An increase in the propensity to save will lower the long-term interest rate; (2) A higher preference for bonds will lead to lower long-term interest rates; (3) A higher level of investment will lead to a higher long-term interest rate; (4) A larger (exogenous) supply of money will lead to a lower long-term interest rate. We confront these four claims with the help of a simple stock-flow consistent (SFC) model which includes firms, banks and households, with the latter holding either bank deposits or bonds issued by firms, while these firms invest in fixed capital and in inventories. We find that higher investment leads to higher interest rates on bonds in the short run, but not in the medium or long run. Similarly, a higher desired inventories-to-output ratio ends up leading to lower interest rates both in the short and the long run. We conclude that using SFC models is particularly adequate when dealing with issues that integrate real and financial variables.

La structure des taux revisitée pour période de crise : entre contagion, flight to quality et quantitative easing

Cet article cherche à évaluer le rôle spécifique des risques de volatilité et de covolatilité dans la formation des taux d’intérêt à long terme de la zone euro sur les périodes de crise et post-crise, marquées par un rôle actif de la BCE. On propose pour cela un modèle de choix de portefeuille obligataire à deux pays qui permet de généraliser les résultats de la théorie traditionnelle de la structure par terme des taux d’intérêt. Les taux longs d’équilibre dépendent crucialement des covariances anticipées par les investisseurs sur les rendements obligataires. Des covariances anticipées positives amplifient les phénomènes de contagion par les fondamentaux en cas de dégradation des finances publiques, tandis que des covariances négatives amplifient les phénomènes de flight to quality . Le modèle est estimé économétriquement dans un cadre GARCH bivarié sur 21 paires de marchés obligataires souverains observés sur la période janvier 2006-septembre 2016. Cette évaluation empirique fait ressortir trois résultats importants. 1) La baisse des taux longs allemand et français très tôt dans la crise, à partir de mars 2011, a trouvé un support important dans la baisse des covariances anticipées vis-à-vis des pays périphériques, qui a véritablement amplifié le processus de flight to quality . 2) La logique des choix de portefeuilles optimaux, révélée par la sensibilité des taux longs aux risques de volatilité, semble disparaître pendant la crise pour réapparaître ensuite, à partir de la mise en place de l’OMT. 3) Un test à la Forbes et Rigobon [2002] sur les composantes non fondamentales des taux longs ne permet pas de conclure que le QE de la BCE, à partir de mars 2015, a véritablement entraîné une re-corrélation des marchés obligataires de la zone euro. Ce paradoxe s’explique par le fait que ces corrélations étaient déjà en moyenne élevées à la suite de l’OMT.