Long-term Historical Trends Research Articles

DDTs and HCHs in sediment cores from the coastal East China Sea

Four sediment cores were collected along the Yangtze-derived sediment transport pathway in the inner shelf of the East China Sea (ECS) for OCP analysis. The sediment records of HCHs and DDTs in estuarine environment reflected remobilization of chemicals from enhanced soil erosion associated to extreme flood events or large scale land use transformation. The sediment records in the open sea, instead, reflected long-term historical trends of OCP application in the source region. Unlike the so-called mud wedge distribution of sediment, inventories of HCHs and DDTs slightly increased from the mouth of Yangtze River alongshore toward south, suggesting the sediment deposition rate was one of factors on the exposure of chemicals within the inner shelf of the ECS. Re-suspension and transport of the Yangtze-derived sediment and consequent fractionation in grain size and TOC were also responsible for the spatial variation of inventories of catchment derived OCPs in a major repository area of the Yangtze suspended sediment. The total burdens of HCHs and DDTs in the inner shelf of the ECS were 35tons and 110tons, respectively. After 1983 (year of the official ban in China), those values were 13tons and 50tons, respectively. It appears that the Yangtze still delivers relatively high inputs of DDTs more than 30years after the official ban. High proportions of DDD+DDE and β-HCH suggested those OCPs mainly originated from historical usage in the catchment recent years.

Writing a Big Data history of music

This article introduces the project A Big Data History of Music, which set out to unlock the bibliographical data held by research libraries in order to create new research opportunities for musicologists. The project cleaned and enhanced aspects of the British Library catalogues of printed and manuscript music, which are now available as open data. It also experimented with the analysis and visualization of the British Library datasets and the RISM inventories of printed and manuscript music. The article shows how quantitative analysis of these datasets can expose long-term historical trends, such as the rise and fall of music printing in 16th- and 17th-century Europe. Data analysis and visualization also facilitates research on the dissemination and canonization of specific composers (as shown by case-studies on Palestrina and Purcell) and on changing trends in genres, scoring and ethnic colourings in music (as shown by a case-study on ‘Scottish’ music).

Long-term dynamics of household size and their environmental implications

Little is known about the environmental implications of long-term historical trends in household size. This paper presents the first historical assessment of global shifts in average household size based on a variety of datasets covering the period 1600–2000. Findings reveal that developed nations reached a threshold in 1893 when average household size began to drop rapidly from approximately 5.0 to 2.5. A similar threshold was reached in developing nations in 1987. With the notable exceptions of Ireland, and England and Wales in the early 1800s, and India and the Seychelles in the late 1900s, the number of households grew faster than population size in every country and every time period. These findings suggest accommodating housing may continue to pose one of the greatest environmental challenges of the twenty-first century because the impacts of increased housing present a threat to sustainability even when population growth slows. Future research addressing environmental impacts of declining household size could use an adapted IPAT model, I = PHoG: where environmental impact (I) = population × personal goods (P) + households × household goods (HoG).

Scenario construction and reduction applied to stochastic power generation expansion planning

A challenging aspect of applying stochastic programming in a dynamic setting is to construct a set of discrete scenarios that well represents multivariate stochastic processes for uncertain parameters. Often this is done by generating a scenario tree using a statistical procedure and then reducing its size while maintaining its statistical properties. In this paper, we test a new scenario reduction heuristic in the context of long-term power generation expansion planning. We generate two different sets of scenarios for future electricity demands and fuel prices by statistical extrapolation of long-term historical trends. The cardinality of the first set is controlled by employing increasing length time periods in a tree structure while that of the second set is limited by its lattice structure with periods of equal length. Nevertheless, some method of scenario thinning is necessary to achieve manageable solution times. To mitigate the computational complexity of the widely-used forward selection heuristic for scenario reduction, we customize a new heuristic scenario reduction method named forward selection in wait-and-see clusters (FSWC) for this application. In this method, we first cluster the scenarios based on their wait-and-see solutions and then apply fast forward selection within clusters. Numerical results for a twenty year generation expansion planning case study indicate substantial computational savings to achieve similar solutions as those obtained by forward selection alone.

Karen Newman, Cultural Capitals: Early Modern London and ParisCultural Capitals: Early Modern London and Paris. Karen Newman. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2007. Pp. x+200.

<i>Karen Newman</i>, Cultural Capitals: Early Modern London and Paris<i>Cultural Capitals: Early Modern London and Paris</i>. Karen Newman. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2007. Pp. x+200.

The 21st Century Crisis

Under the current trend, the world is on track towards an extreme greenhouse state that threatens to destroy human civilization and nearly all forms of life on Earth. Without an end to economic growth, it is virtually impossible for meaningful climate stabilization to be achieved. However, both capitalist enterprises and states are constantly driven to expand production and consumption. The climate change crisis is but one of several long-term historical trends that are now leading to the structural crisis of capitalism. The resolution of the crisis and the survival of humanity require the building of a fundamentally different social system. JEL classification: B51, P16, P20, Q54

What do near-term observations tell us about long-term developments in greenhouse gas emissions?

Long-term scenarios developed by integrated assessment models are used in climate research to provide an indication of plausible long-term emissions of greenhouse gases and other radiatively active substances based on developments in the global energy system, land-use and the emissions associated with these systems. The phenomena that determine these long-term developments (several decades or even centuries) are very different than those that operate on a shorter time-scales (a few years). Nevertheless, in the literature, we still often find direct comparisons between short-term observations and long-term developments that do not take into account the differing dynamics over these time scales. In this letter, we discuss some of the differences between the factors that operate in the short term and those that operate in the long term. We use long-term historical emissions trends to show that short-term observations are very poor indicators of long-term future emissions developments. Based on this, we conclude that the performance of long-term scenarios should be evaluated against the appropriate, corresponding long-term variables and trends. The research community may facilitate this by developing appropriate data sets and protocols that can be used to test the performance of long-term scenarios and the models that produce them.

Emergy account for biomass resource exploitation by agriculture in China

On the basis of Odum's ecological economic measure of emergy as embodied solar energy, a system account of biomass resource exploitation by agriculture in China 2004 is developed in this paper, which supplements a former study on corresponding long-term historical trends during 1978 to 2000 (Chen et al., 2006. Emergy-based analysis of the Chinese agriculture. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 115, 161–173). The aggregate fluxes and indicators for biomass resource exploitation in China 2004 are calculated and illustrated when compared with those for 2000 to elucidate the latest status of the Chinese agriculture as the exploitation sector for biomass resource. Data sources and algorithm are presented in detail as basic references for related analysis involving the ecological economy of biomass exploitation in agriculture.

George W. Bush, Idealist

There is much anger and confused grumbling these days outside the United States—and in Europe in particular—about the character of the Bush administration's foreign policy. Perceived American unilateralism is raising hackles and questions. This article contends that current trends in US foreign policy can be better understood by realizing that many senior Bush administration officials are not ‘realists’, at least as that philosophy of world politics is classically understood. Many of the resulting views—that, for example, threats to security often originate in ideology rather than material strength—are demonstrably correct and even hopeful in their faith in long-term historical trends. But there may be no getting around the essential contradictions required of US foreign policy in an age when America is the leading power, when a new global community of trading democracies is emerging, and yet when a number of distinctly old-style threats to the peace remain very much in evidence. Washington could do more to smooth the edges of those contradictions in order to point up the idealism and hopefulness of US policy.

Vieillissement de la population et dépenses publiques de soins de santé et de soins aux personnes âgées

The aim of this paper is to present projections of public expenditure on health care and long-term care for the elderly, in view of ageing populations, undertaken by the Working Group on Ageing of the European Economic Policy Committee and presented to the ECOFIN Council in 2001. These projections cover almost all of the fifteen EU Member States, and make initial projections of expenditure for the first half of the current century (2000-2050). The expenditure projections were produced using a common methodology, a common demographic projection and commonly agreed macroeconomic assumptions. Projections of health care expenditure and long-term care expenditure were run separately in order to analyse the implications of ageing for the two different expenditure components. In summary, the projections reveal that the impact of ageing for public finances, from increased public expenditure on health and long-term care, is likely to be significant in the first half of the current century. The results of the projections are to be understood as reflecting the impact of future demographic changes on overall levels of health and long-term care expenditure – one way of interpreting the projections is to treat them as a picture of what expenditure levels would be today if we had the demographic com- position of future years. As such, these numbers are subject to both upside and downside risks. Upside risks stem from the fact that key non-demographic drivers of health and long-term care expenditure are not explicitly modelled in the projections. Moreover, assumptions for the developments of expenditures per head are mostly lower than those that would be predicted from long-term historical trends. Downside risks stem from the fact that the relationship between age and health status, and thus age and care needs, is likely to change over time.

Long-Term Historical Trends in Violent Crime

Research on the history of crime from the thirteenth century until the end of the twentieth has burgeoned and has greatly increased understanding of historical trends in crime and crime control. Serious interpersonal violence decreased remarkably in Europe between the mid-sixteenth and the early twentieth centuries. Different long-term trajectories in the decline of homicide can be distinguished between various European regions. Age and sex patterns in serious violent offending, however, have changed very little over several centuries. The long-term decline in homicide rates seems to go along with a disproportionate decline in elite homicide and a drop in male-to-male conflicts in public space. A range of theoretical explanations for the long-term decline have been offered, including the effects of the civilizing process, strengthening state powers, the Protestant Reformation, and modern individualism, but most theorizing has been post hoc.

Social Movements and Development In Quebec: The Experience of the Desjardins Movement

Along with the other sectors of the banking industry over the last two decades, the savings and credit cooperatives have been affected by deep currents which are radically changing their form and structure. In Quebec, the Desjardins movement is at present involved in a fundamental reform of the organizational structures which have characterized its growth since the period between the two world wars. This article deals with the major transformations which the Desjardins movement experienced, from the creation of the first caisse populaire in 1900 to the situation existing at the end of the twentieth century. Using an approach at the junction of history and sociology, it considers the Desjardins movement as one of the components of what Alain Touraine calls a ‘social development movement’. We aim to show that the present changes affecting the savings and credit cooperation fall within the long‐term historical trends, while at the same time reflecting new phenomena. We shall point out the most significant aspects of these new developments.

The relative stability of belligerent and peaceful societies: implications for SETI

Although initially we will know virtually nothing about any society that our microwave search detects, in all likelihood their society will be far older than ours. It will have evolved mechanisms to ensure longevity. A pessimistic hypothesis would lead us to expect a powerful, aggressive and self-serving society that has vanquished all challengers. If this hypothesis were true, a response by us to their signal could be dangerous. An optimistic hypothesis, that it is the peaceful societies that survive, would lead us to expect a benign or even friendly civilization. If this second hypothesis were true, our response would gratify their scientific curiosity and perhaps lead to a useful exchange of information. Convergent evidence from the quantitative analyses of long-term historical trends and computer modeling support the optimistic hypothesis. Although not conclusive, this analysis suggests that revealing our presence in the Universe is a low risk activity.

The community safety approach in Falun, Sweden — is it possible to characterise the most effective prevention endeavours and how long-lasting are the results?

The safe community concept was put into practice in order to reduce the number of unintentional injuries occurring in the Falun municipality. A community-based injury prevention programme was initiated in 1989 and has been gradually built up since that time. The prevention endeavours were based primarily on active intervention strategies through the provision of information, supervision, education and training. After 5 years of an active intervention programme, a significant effect was found as regards the injury rates for both outpatients as well as patients discharged from hospitals. The objectives of this study were: to examine whether the character of the prevention endeavours was a determining factor on the outcome (recorded as in-patient injury cases); to evaluate the effects of this programme, which is still in practice, compared to long-term historical trends; and to draw comparisons with other community-based programmes. A category of ‘most targeted risks’ was identified as being different with respect to how the injury mechanisms involved were targeted through the programme activities. The development within the injury rates for this group, comprised predominantly of injuries caused by falls at the same level, was significantly different than those for the groups categorized as ‘less targeted’ and ‘non-targeted’. The general effect of the programme appeared to be a neutralization of an otherwise upward trend in the injury rates. A particular effect was demonstrated in the number of fall injuries, including femoral fractures. It was also noted that there was still a reduction in injuries after 7 years. However, it was possible to surmise a waning effect during the last 2 years of the programme while still in progress. This observation suggests that a community-based injury prevention programme must be continuously renewed and reinforced.

Historical trends in physics bachelor degree output

This article examines long-term historical trends in physics B.S. production, and possible factors responsible for those trends. The factors considered include: a changing profile of college entrants, the increasing lure of engineering, differential grade inflation, old-fashioned pedagogy, and poor teaching. Finally, the article considers whether it matters to society whether physics major enrollments continue to decline.

New perspectives on the spatial dimensions of economic coordination: tensions between globalization and social systems of production

This article argues that the coordination of economic institutions is occurring simultaneously at various spatial levels (e.g. subnational region, nation-state, transnational region, global). The institutional arrangements which at one time were congruent at the national levels are now more dispersed at multiple spatial levels. Impressive economic performance now requires that economic actors be well coordinated in all spatial areas simultaneously. In short, actors are increasingly nested in institutional arrangements which are linked at all levels. The parts of each system have become far more interdependent than was the case only two decades ago, and the increasingly complex distribution of power and resources across geographical levels is further evidence of how economic institutions have become nested in multiple worlds. This perspective about the diffusion of power suggests that there is slowly evolving a set of institutions for the governance of societies at multiple levels, but this process is poorly understood and its long-term consequences are rarely discussed. The future is very much open, but a perspective on long-term historical trends suggests that one of the major challenges of our time is to create a new theory of governance involving institutions and local territories nested in a world of unprecedented complexity, one in which subnational regions, nation-states, continental and global regimes are all intricately linked.

A Geographic Analysis of Non-Russian Minorities in Russia and Its Ethnic Homelands

"The paper...analyzes the characteristics of 27 million non-Russians who constituted 18 percent of the population of the Russian Federation and its 31 ethnic homelands in 1989. Utilizing data from all Soviet censuses (from 1926), it reviews long-term historical trends; growth patterns related to urban-rural differences, family size, regional contrasts in rates of natural increase, and specific ethnic traits; migration patterns; factors influencing language shifts to the Russian; effect of location inside or outside homeland; and the influences of transportation, cities, and economic development in individual homelands."