Long-term Government Bond Yields Research Articles

Announcements of ECB unconventional programs: Implications for the sovereign spreads of stressed euro area countries

This paper studies the effects of ECB communications about unconventional monetary policy operations on the sovereign spreads of Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain relative to Germany between 2008 and 2012. More than fifty events concerning non-standard operations are identified and classified with respect to the specific ECB program. The empirical results suggest that the ECB announcements about unconventional monetary policies substantially reduced long-term government bond yield spreads relative to German counterparts in all countries, except Greece. Particularly, among the different types of measures, news about the Securities Markets Programme strongly affected the perceived sovereign risk of the five stressed euro area countries, while the announcements of the Outright Monetary Transactions seem to have a significant impact only in Italy and Spain.

Predicting severe simultaneous bear stock markets using macroeconomic variables as leading indicators

This paper investigates the predictability of severe simultaneous bear stock markets in 10 industrialized countries. Based on a set of US macroeconomic variables, all of the in-sample and out-of-sample results from probit models with a single macroeconomic variable and with more than one macroeconomic variables confirm that severe simultaneous bear stock markets are indeed predictable. In particular, while the inflation rate is the strongest predictor at longer forecast horizons, the relative long-term government bond yield and the stock return perform best at shorter forecast horizons.

The Price Relevance of Fiscal Developments

We use SURE estimation methods to assess the link between prices, bond yields and the fiscal behavior. A first equation determines the country-specific cost of government financing via the long-term government bond yield, as a function of budget balance positions. A second equation links the price level to the cost of government financing. Our results for 15 EU countries in the period 1980Q1-2013Q4, show that: improvements in the fiscal stance lead to persistent falls in sovereign yields; higher sovereign yields are reflected in upward price movements; improvements in the fiscal stance in recession times lead to short-term decreases in yields; better fiscal stance in expansions induce downward movement in bond yields only after 8 quarters.

Understanding the Impact of Large Scale Asset Purchases on Long-Term Government Bond Yields: The Quantitative Easing Paradox

Empirical event studies estimate that Large Scale Asset Purchases (LSAP) push down long-term interest rates through the portfolio balance channel. However, since portfolio reallocation takes time to materialise, a longer horizon may be more appropriate to assess the effects of LSAP. With a longer horizon in mind, a deep look at historical experiences leads to the quantitative easing paradox: LSAP raise long-term government bond yields, while a premature exit lowers long-term government bond yields. To solve this puzzle, this paper argues that LSAP mainly raise the government term premium. In the wake of a severe economic and financial crisis, the period of heightened risk aversion and the safe asset shortage weigh on the government term premium. Through the portfolio balance channel, LSAP increase the supply of safe assets and decrease the demand of money at the same time, thereby lifting the government term premium. Finally, a new econometric method introduced by Brodersen et al. (2014), which infers the causal impact of LSAP on the term premium, confirms that LSAP have a significant positive effect on long-term government bond yields.

Long-term government bond yields and macroeconomic fundamentals: Evidence for Greece during the crisis-era

This paper studies the influence of macroeconomic fundamentals and the underlying 10years Greek government bonds. We examine for the period between Q12001 up to end to Q42012, applying four major macroeconomic variables such as Debt to GDP ratio, deficit, inflation and unemployment. We found that, overall, deficit, inflation and unemployment among others, play a more significant role as determinants of the 10-year Greek bond yield, while isolating the period during the crisis macroeconomic factors strengthen their affect to the Greek Debt market.

Foreign Investor Flows and Sovereign Bond Yields in Advanced Economies

Asset allocation decisions of international investors are at the core of capital flows. This paper explores the impact of these decisions on long-term government bond yields, using a quarterly investor base dataset for 22 advanced economies over 2004-2012. We find that a one percentage point increase in the share of government debt held by foreign investors can explain a 6-10 basis point reduction in long-term sovereign bond yields over the sample period. Accordingly, international flows to core advanced economy bond markets over 2008-12 are estimated to have reduced 10-year government bond yields by 40-65 basis points in Germany, 20-30 basis points in the U.K., and 35-60 basis points in the U.S. In contrast, foreign outflows are estimated to have raised 10-year government bond yields by 40-70 basis points in Italy and 110-180 basis points in Spain during the same period. Our results suggest that the divergence in long-term bond yields between core and periphery economies in the euro area may continue unless the “normalization” of macroeconomic determinants of bond yields is accompanied by a similar “normalization” of the foreign investor base.

Foreign Investor Flows and Sovereign Bond Yields in Advanced Economies

Asset allocation decisions of international investors are at the core of capital flows. This paper explores the impact of these decisions on long-term government bond yields, using a quarterly investor base dataset for 22 advanced economies over 2004-2012. We find that a one percentage point increase in the share of government debt held by foreign investors can explain a 6-10 basis point reduction in long-term sovereign bond yields over the sample period. Accordingly, international flows to core advanced economy bond markets over 2008-12 are estimated to have reduced 10-year government bond yields by 40-65 basis points in Germany, 20-30 basis points in the U.K., and 35-60 basis points in the U.S. In contrast, foreign outflows are estimated to have raised 10-year government bond yields by 40-70 basis points in Italy and 110-180 basis points in Spain during the same period. Our results suggest that the divergence in long-term bond yields between core and periphery economies in the euro area may continue unless the “normalization” of macroeconomic determinants of bond yields is accompanied by a similar “normalization” of the foreign investor base.

FOREIGN PARTICIPATION IN LOCAL CURRENCY BOND MARKETS OF EMERGING ECONOMIES

This paper estimates the impact of foreign participation in determining long-term local currency government bond yields and volatility in a group of emerging markets (EMs) from 2000 to 2009. The results of a panel data analysis of 10 EMs show that greater foreign participation in the domestic government bond market tends to significantly reduce long-term government yields. Moreover, greater foreign participation does not necessarily result in increased volatility in bond yields in EMs and, in fact, could even dampen volatility in some instances.

Causality-in-variance and causality-in-mean between the Greek sovereign bond yields and Southern European banking sector equity returns

This paper adopts the robust cross-correlation function methodology developed by Hong (J Econom 103:183–224, 2001) in order to test for volatility and mean spillovers between Greek long-term government bond yields and the banking sector stock returns of four Southern European countries, namely Greece, Portugal, Italy, and Spain. Its primary focus is on investigating the potential impacts of the recent European sovereign debt crisis. While most previous studies have focused on within-country causalities, we rather assess cross-country transmission effects. The presented results provide evidence of bidirectional volatility spillovers between Greek long-term interest rates and the banking sector equities of Portugal, Italy, and Spain that emerged during the European sovereign debt crisis. We also find significant unidirectional causality-in-mean from bank stock returns in Greece to Greek long-term bond yields during the crisis period as well as significant causality at the mean level from the bank equity returns in Portugal, Italy, and Spain to Greek bond yields.

The Dynamics of Sovereign Yield Differentials inthe EMU: New Evidence and Perspectives

The author investigates yield differentials from a different perspective. To account for the still non-negligible differences in long-term government bond yields of EMU members relative to Germany, the literature has placed much attention on the relative importance of liquidity and credit risk factors. In this article, the author argues that the main driver of spreads is the U.S. long-term rate. Results qualify earlier evidence and document an additional and independent role for the international risk factor. This article also shows that working on spreads relative to the German rate is a frustrating exercise while the use of the U.S. rate as external reference allows for sharper results. <b>TOPICS:</b>Fixed-income portfolio management, big data/machine learning, developed markets [Europe]

Being Realistic about Bond Returns

Long-term expected returns for bond investments are an important component of the actuarial assumptions of pension funds around the world. Similarly, banks and investors around the world need realistic long-term return assumptions to decide on the optimal share of bonds in a multiasset portfolio. Given the current low interest rates in most developed countries, we calculate expected returns for government bonds in four regions and compare these to long-term historical returns. It seems clear that over the next decade government bond returns will be significantly lower than the historical average. In light of these results, it seems astonishing that many banks, pension funds and investors still seem to use the same long-term bond return expectations as before the current period of monetary easing. According to our calculations, this practice implicitly assumes that—at least for the U.S., the U.K. and Switzerland—long-term government bond yields are based on unrealistic scenarios. <b>TOPICS:</b>Long-term/retirement investing, global, fixed-income portfolio management

Long-Term Government Bond Yields and Economic Forecasts: Evidence for the EU

I use a panel of semi-annual vintages of growth and fiscal forecasts of the European Commission, covering the period 1998:II-2008:II, to assess its effects on 10-year government yields for 14 EU countries. Results show that yields increase with better growth forecasts, and with decreases in budget balance-to-GDP ratios, signalling that sovereigns may need to pay more to finance in the market higher budget deficits.

Long-term government bond yields and economic forecasts: evidence for the EU

I use a panel of semi-annual vintages of growth and fiscal forecasts of the European Commission, covering the period 1998:II–2008:II, to assess its effects on 10-year government yields for 14 EU countries. Results show that yields increase with better growth forecasts and with decreases in budget balance-to-GDP rations, signaling that sovereigns may need to pay more to finance higher budget deficits in the market.

Being Realistic About Bond Returns

Long-term expected returns for bond investments are an important component of the actuarial assumptions of pension funds around the world. Similarly, banks and investors around the world need realistic long-term return assumptions to decide on the optimal share of bonds in a multi-asset portfolio. Given the current low interest rates in most developed countries, we calculate expected returns for government bonds in four regions and compare these to long-term historical returns. It seems clear that over the next decade government bond returns will be significantly lower than the historical average. In light of these results, it seems astonishing to us that many banks, pension funds and investors still seem to use the same long-term bond return expectations as before the current period of monetary easing. According to our calculations, this practice implicitly assumes that – at least for Switzerland the UK and the US – long-term government bond yields are based on unrealistic scenarios. Therefore, this practice seems clearly flawed and may have grave implications for the portfolios of those investors.

Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Great Recession - Estimating the Impact of a Compression in the Yield Spread at the Zero Lower Bound

We explore the macroeconomic impact of a compression in the long-term bond yield spread within the context of the Great Recession of 2007-2009 via a Bayesian time-varying parameter structural VAR. We identify a ‘pure’ spread shock which, leaving the short-term rate unchanged by construction, allows us to characterise the macroeconomic impact of a compression in the yield spread induced by central banks’ asset purchases within an environment in which the short rate cannot move because it is constrained by the zero lower bound. Two main findings stand out. First, in all the countries we analyse (U.S., Euro area, Japan, and U.K.) a compression in the long-term yield spread exerts a powerful effect on both output growth and inflation. Second, conditional on available estimates of the impact of the FED’s and the Bank of England’s asset purchase programmes on long-term government bond yield spreads, our counterfactual simulations indicate that U.S. and U.K. unconventional monetary policy actions have averted significant risks both of deflation and of output collapses comparable to those that took place during the Great Depression.

An international test of the Fed model

In a way similar to Asness, this paper examines the effectiveness of earnings yields, as well as of their difference with long-term government bond yields (the so-called Fed model), to forecast real stock returns of various horizons in nine countries. Moreover, the same tests are repeated with dividend yields in place of earnings yields. Forecasting power is measured by using regression analysis. The results show that the traditional model is somewhat successful at forecasting long-term stock returns, whereas the Fed model is a failure.

Assessing the Relation between Equity Risk Premia and Macroeconomic Volatilities

In this paper, we used modified multivariate EGARCH-M models to assess the relation between the equity risk premium, macroeconomic risk, and inflationary expectations. To rationalise this link between equity risk premia and macroeconomic volatilities, we built our empirical study on the stochastic discount factor (SDF) model. As an innovative feature of our empirical model, we used long-term government bond yields in order to explain this risk-return relation. Our research suggests that stock market investors should use long-term government bond yield for the UK and term spread for the US in order to instrument their assessment of stock market investment opportunities and riskiness. We also document that the relevance of the short-term interest rates has decreased over the last decade, whereas the relevance of the long-term government bond yields, by contrast, has increased. With regard to the risk-return relation, we found the UK investors tend to significantly price in inflation risk premia. Estimation results strongly suggest that the decline in macroeconomic volatilities might have played an increasingly important role in reducing risk premia in the US and, to some extent, in the UK.

Fight the Fed Model

The “Fed model” is a popular yardstick for judging whether the stock market is fairly valued. It compares the stock market9s earnings yield to the long-term government bond yield, while more traditional methods evaluate stock market valuation without regard to the level of interest rates. The Fed model is theoretically flawed, as it compares a real number to a nominal number, ignoring the fact that over the long term nominal earnings generally move in tandem with inflation. The crucible for testing a valuation indicator is how well it forecasts long-term returns, and the Fed model fails this test?traditional methods ace it. Lack of predictive ability aside, investors have indeed historically required a higher stock market P/E when nominal interest rates have been lower. This does not imply that the Fed model is valid, rather only that investors have historically followed it, perhaps in error. The relationship of stock and bond market yields is more complicated than conceived by the Fed model, varying systematically with perceptions of long-term stock and bond market risk. Addition of risk to the Fed model solves the puzzle of why stocks outperformed bonds for the first half of the 20th century, but have underperformed bonds since.

Long-Run Stock Returns: Participating in the Real Economy

In the study reported here, we estimated the forward-looking long-term equity risk premium by extrapolating the way it has participated in the real economy. We decomposed the 1926–2000 historical equity returns into supply factors—inflation, earnings, dividends, the P/E, the dividend-payout ratio, book value, return on equity, and GDP per capita. Key findings are the following. First, the growth in corporate productivity measured by earnings is in line with the growth of overall economic productivity. Second, P/E increases account for only a small portion of the total return of equity. The bulk of the return is attributable to dividend payments and nominal earnings growth (including inflation and real earnings growth). Third, the increase in the equity market relative to economic productivity can be more than fully attributed to the increase in the P/E. Fourth, a secular decline has occurred in the dividend yield and payout ratio, rendering dividend growth alone a poor measure of corporate profitability and future growth. Our forecast of the equity risk premium is only slightly lower than the pure historical return estimate. We estimate the expected long-term equity risk premium (relative to the long-term government bond yield) to be about 6 percentage points arithmetically and 4 percentage points geometrically.

Interest rate risk premium and monetary union in lessons the european periphery: New lessons from the gold standard1

This paper analyses time-variable risk premiums on long-term government securities during the classical gold standard period 1880–1914. I employ a quasi-capital asset pricing model (CAPM) for a cross-section of six countries which adhered to the gold standard to varying degrees. The empirical results show that systematic risk was higher and more variable for countries shadowing the gold standard. Peripheral countries benefited by participating in a monetary union as opposed to countries pursuing independent monetary policies. Long-term commitment to the gold standard was determinant of long-term government bond yields and contributed to long-term economic growth. An analysis of the international crisis of 1890 indicates that there was a ‘flight to quality’ during the crisis. Countries not on gold experienced a larger increase in risk, as well as a decline in long-run growth prospects. Finally, the results indicate an overall decrease in the volatility of systematic risk during the early 1900s. This can be interpreted as evidence of a ‘market-wide’ effect on the international monetary regime.