Long-term Global Warming Research Articles

Long- and short-term coupling of sea surface temperature and atmospheric CO2 during the late Paleocene and early Eocene

The late Paleocene and early Eocene (LPEE) are characterized by long-term (million years, Myr) global warming and by transient, abrupt (kiloyears, kyr) warming events, termed hyperthermals. Although both have been attributed to greenhouse (CO2) forcing, the longer-term trend in climate was likely influenced by additional forcing factors (i.e., tectonics) and the extent to which warming was driven by atmospheric CO2 remains unclear. Here, we use a suite of new and existing observations from planktic foraminifera collected at Pacific Ocean Drilling Program Sites 1209 and 1210 and inversion of a multiproxy Bayesian hierarchical model to quantify sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric CO2 over a 6-Myr interval. Our reconstructions span the initiation of long-term LPEE warming (~58 Ma), and the two largest Paleogene hyperthermals, the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, ~56 Ma) and Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 (ETM-2, ~54 Ma). Our results show strong coupling between CO2 and temperature over the long- (LPEE) and short-term (PETM and ETM-2) but differing Pacific climate sensitivities over the two timescales. Combined CO2 and carbon isotope trends imply the carbon source driving CO2 increase was likely methanogenic, organic, or mixed for the PETM and organic for ETM-2, whereas a source with higher δ13C values (e.g., volcanic degassing) is associated with the long-term LPEE. Reconstructed emissions for the PETM (5,800 Gt C) and ETM-2 (3,800 Gt C) are comparable in mass to future emission scenarios, reinforcing the value of these events as analogs of anthropogenic change.

Global warming in a net zero CO2 scenario after 2050 a study with FaIR

Global warming is a severe environmental problem which caused by human activities such as damage to the environmental an overuse of resources. In order to control the global warming under 2C, net zero, especially net zero CO2 has been a goal that must be pursued. The net zero is a goal that all the countries can reduce the emission of greenhouse gases to zero. This article uses FaIR climate model to study the effect of different greenhouse gases on temperature anomaly so that to find the main contributor. The effect of net zero CO2 also be estimated. The model concluded that carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels is the most important contributor to global warming, and zero emissions of CO2 would greatly help mitigate it. In addition, global warming is an inevitable trend, so while reducing CO2 emissions to mitigate the global warming, adaptation to the long-term global warming can also be combined with mitigation.

Measurements of infrared absorption cross-sections for n-C3F8, c-C4F8, n-C4F10, and n-C5F12 from 298 to 350 K

Perfluoro-n-propane, perfluorocyclobutane, perfluoro-n-butane, and perfluoro-n-pentane are non-ozone-depleting industrial alternatives to chlorofluorocarbons and hydrochlorofluorocarbons. However, these perfluoroalkanes have significant band strength in the atmospheric window from 800 to 1200 cm−1. Coupled with their millennial-scale atmospheric lifetimes, they can lead to significant long-term global warming. Infrared spectra are required to quantify the climate impacts. This work provides a set of high-temperature infrared absorption cross-sections in the range 298–350 K at 0.1 cm−1 resolution from 515 to 1500 cm−1 for each compound. Our cross-sections generally agree with literature measurements except for perfluoro-n-pentane. We use density functional theory to calculate the absorption cross-sections from 0 to 515 cm−1 using the B3LYP functional and several basis sets. The 6-31G(d,p) basis set provides the best results for linear perfluoroalkanes, while the def2-TZVP basis set provides the best results for cyclic perfluoroalkanes. Using experimental cross-sections, we calculate the radiative efficiency and global warming potential for each compound, utilizing the Pinnock curve from Shine and Myhre (2020) and atmospheric lifetimes from Hodnebrog et al. (2020). These quantities are found to be independent of temperature. The average 100-year global warming potential derived from all cross-sections is 9,610±1,260, 10,800±1,420, 10,100±1,330, and 9,380±1,230 for perfluoro-n-propane, perfluorocyclobutane, perfluoro-n-butane, and perfluoro-n-pentane, respectively. Combining the data in this work with our previous measurements reveals that the global warming potential for perfluoroalkanes with an increasing number of CF bonds depends on the ratio of radiative efficiency to molecular weight.

Emerging Technologies in the Electrification of Urban Mobility

The Paris Agreement limits the long-term global warming goal to well below 2 and preferably to 1 [...]

Effects of deterministic assembly of communities caused by global warming on coexistence patterns and ecosystem functions

Seasonal rhythms in biological and ecological dynamics are fundamental in regulating the structuring of microbial communities. Evaluating the seasonal rhythms of microorganisms in response to climate change could provide information on their variability and stability over longer timescales (>20-year). However, information on temporal variability in microorganism responses to medium- and long-term global warming is limited. In this study, we aimed to elucidate the temporal dynamics of microbial communities in response to global warming; to this end, we integrated data on the maintenance of species diversity, community composition, temporal turnover rates (v), and community assembly process in two typical ecosystems (meadows and shrub habitat) on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Our results showed that 21 years of global warming would increase the importance of the deterministic process for microorganisms in both ecosystems across all seasons (R2 of grassland (GL) control: 0.524, R2 of GL warming: 0.467; R2 of shrubland (SL) control: 0.556, R2 of SL warming: 0.543), reducing species diversity and altering community composition. Due to environmental filtration pressure from 21 years of warming, the low turnover rate (v of warming: −3.13/-2.00, v of control: −2.44/−1.48) of soil microorganisms reduces the resistance and resilience of ecological communities, which could lead to higher community similarity and more clustered taxonomic assemblages occurring across years. Changes to temperature might increase selection pressure on specialist taxa, which directly causes dominant species (v of warming: −1.63, v of control: −2.49) primarily comprising these taxa to be more strongly impacted by changing temperature than conditionally (v of warming: −1.47, v of control: −1.75) or always rare taxa (v of warming: −0.57, v of control: −1.33). Evaluation of the seasonal rhythms of microorganisms in response to global warming revealed that the variability and stability of different microbial communities in different habitats had dissimilar biological and ecological performances when challenged with an external disturbance. The balance of competition and cooperation, because of environmental selection, also influenced ecosystem function in complex terrestrial ecosystems. Overall, our study enriches the limited information on the temporal variability in microorganism responses to 21 years of global warming, and provides a scientific basis for evaluating the impact of climate warming on the temporal stability of soil ecosystems.

Operating cost comparison of state-of-the-art heat pumps in residential buildings across the United States

With increasing concerns about the long-term global warming effect of HFC refrigerants, low-GWP refrigerants and non-vapor compression heat pumps are gaining attention to be the replacements for current vapor compression heat pumps that rely on HFCs. In addition, advanced heat pump solutions, such as heat pump water heaters, cold climate heat pumps, and low-GWP heat pumps are emphasized by regulators to make the heat pump market cleaner, more efficient, and more affordable. However, current research efforts lack comparisons of the new technologies under realistic building loads, climate conditions, and utility rates. In addition, combinations of emerging technologies have also not been considered. This study developed a methodology to systematically evaluate conventional and emerging space conditioning and water heating technologies both from performance and operating costs points of view. This study analyzed eight HVAC configurations for space heating, cooling, and water heating in terms of annual operating cost when coupled with an actual building affected by weather conditions. The eight HVAC configurations covered advanced solutions such as heat pump water heaters, ground source heat pumps, cold climate heat pumps, and membrane heat pumps, and they were compared with traditional vapor compression heat pumps and gas furnaces. The operating cost assessment was conducted based on building energy simulation using the real utility structure. The results revealed the trade-offs between HVAC combinations for the eleven climate zone covered in this study. The two-stage cold climate heat pump can save 10%–20% heating costs than single-stage heat pumps in cold regions. A membrane evaporative cooler can provide cooling cost savings in eight out of the eleven climate zones analyzed. A gas furnace should only be used in cold places where the electricity price per kWh to gas price ratio is higher than 3. HPWH should be recommended to places where the electricity price to gas price ratio is below 3.

Orbital phasing of the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum

Paleocene-Eocene sedimentary archives record a series of global warming events called hyperthermals. These events occurred across a long-term increasing temperature trend and were associated with light carbon injections that produced carbon isotope excursions (CIEs). Early Eocene hyperthermals occurred close to both long (∼405 kyr) and short (∼100 kyr) eccentricity maxima. It has been proposed that under long-term global warming, orbital forcing of climate crossed a thermodynamic threshold that destabilized carbon reservoirs and produced Early Eocene hyperthermals. However, orbital control on triggering of the largest hyperthermal, the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), remains unclear. Identification of the precise orbital phasing of the PETM has been hindered by extensive calcium carbonate (CaCO3) dissolution, which introduces uncertainty into PETM age models. Here, we report orbital signatures in marine sediments from Contessa Road (Italy), a western Tethyan section with reduced PETM CaCO3 dissolution compared to other deep ocean sites. Orbitally controlled lysocline depth adjustments and orbital phasing of the PETM CIE onset close to both long and short eccentricity maxima are documented here. Precession-based age models from the well-resolved PETM section of Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 1262 (South Atlantic) confirm these results and reveal that the PETM CIE onset was partially triggered by an orbitally controlled mechanism. Climate processes associated with orbital forcing of both long and short eccentricity maxima played an important role in triggering the carbon cycle perturbations of all Paleocene-Eocene CIE events.

Mitigating climate disruption in time: A self-consistent approach for avoiding both near-term and long-term global warming

The ongoing and projected impacts from human-induced climate change highlight the need for mitigation approaches to limit warming in both the near term (<2050) and the long term (>2050). We clarify the role of non-CO2 greenhouse gases and aerosols in the context of near-term and long-term climate mitigation, as well as the net effect of decarbonization strategies targeting fossil fuel (FF) phaseout by 2050. Relying on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change radiative forcing, we show that the net historical (2019 to 1750) radiative forcing effect of CO2 and non-CO2 climate forcers emitted by FF sources plus the CO2 emitted by land-use changes is comparable to the net from non-CO2 climate forcers emitted by non-FF sources. We find that mitigation measures that target only decarbonization are essential for strong long-term cooling but can result in weak near-term warming (due to unmasking the cooling effect of coemitted aerosols) and lead to temperatures exceeding 2 °C before 2050. In contrast, pairing decarbonization with additional mitigation measures targeting short-lived climate pollutants and N2O, slows the rate of warming a decade or two earlier than decarbonization alone and avoids the 2 °C threshold altogether. These non-CO2 targeted measures when combined with decarbonization can provide net cooling by 2030 and reduce the rate of warming from 2030 to 2050 by about 50%, roughly half of which comes from methane, significantly larger than decarbonization alone over this time frame. Our analysis demonstrates the need for a comprehensive CO2 and targeted non-CO2 mitigation approach to address both the near-term and long-term impacts of climate disruption.

STRICTs: A Blockchain-enabled Smart Emission Cap Restrictive and Carbon Permit Trading System

As the first legally binding global agreement on climate change, the Paris Agreement aims to limit long-term global warming to less than 2 °C, preferably below 1.5 °C compared to pre-industrial levels. Road transport, as one of the primary sources of energy consumption and carbon emissions, has great potential for energy conservation and emission reduction in achieving the climate goals. However, current approaches cannot efficiently reduce road travel, making it challenging to decarbonize in the transport sector. Therefore, in this paper, we propose STRICTs, a blockchain-enabled motor vehicle restrictive and trading system based on the carbon emissions cap. STRICTs allows automated carbon emission auditing and carbon emission violation punishment without relying on third-party escrow. Through a decentralized enforcer, STRICTs also enables carbon permit trading reliably and transparently. Finally, we implement a proof-of-concept prototype of the system based on Hyperledger Fabric and conduct experiments for comprehensive performance evaluation through CO2 Emission by Vehicles dataset. The experiment results show the practically affordable performance of STRICTs.

Volcanic temperature changes modulated volatile release and climate fluctuations at the end-Triassic mass extinction

Emplacement of the Central Atlantic Magmatic Province (CAMP) is thought to have triggered global environmental changes and the end-Triassic mass extinction (ETE). However, the mechanisms linking volcanism and environmental change are unclear. Here we provide new insight into these linkages by measuring the abundance of both sedimentary five- to six-ring polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and mercury from strata deposited in shallow marine environments across the ETE at the GSSP Kuhjoch section in Austria and St. Audrie's Bay section in the UK. To contextualize these data, we report results from laboratory experiments measuring the production of SO2 and CO2 during heating of limestone and mudstone. ETE sediments record parallel enrichments of mercury and five- to six-ring PAHs, which could have been produced by intrusive magma (mainly sills) and lava flows during the early stage of the CAMP emplacement; these data indicate a direct link between massive gas emission from sill contact metamorphism and the ETE. The fraction of coronene – a highly condensed six-ring PAH that requires greater energy to form compared to smaller PAHs – accumulated in the sediments during these initial volcanic events is low, and it coincides with the terrestrial plant turnover and initial marine extinction. Coronene increases to medium values coinciding with the final marine extinction level. Our heating experiments of typical carbonate and mudstone materials show that relatively low temperature heating (>350°C) by sills releases massive amounts of SO2 on a 100 yr time scale, whereas higher temperature heating (500–600°C) forms more CO2 on the same time scale. The combination of our end-Triassic geochemical data and laboratory results implies that low heating by sills caused SO2-dominated gas emission to the stratosphere and low CO2 emission, inducing global cooling that could have precipitated the mass extinction. The subsequent increase in coronene content indicates higher volcanic temperature that would have volatilized CO2 rich gas; the consequence was a switch to greater CO2 release and long-term (>105 yr) global warming.

Recent natural variability in global warming weakened phenological mismatch and selection on seasonal timing in great tits (Parus major).

Climate change has led to phenological shifts in many species, but with large variation in magnitude among species and trophic levels. The poster child example of the resulting phenological mismatches between the phenology of predators and their prey is the great tit (Parus major), where this mismatch led to directional selection for earlier seasonal breeding. Natural climate variability can obscure the impacts of climate change over certain periods, weakening phenological mismatching and selection. Here, we show that selection on seasonal timing indeed weakened significantly over the past two decades as increases in late spring temperatures have slowed down. Consequently, there has been no further advancement in the date of peak caterpillar food abundance, while great tit phenology has continued to advance, thereby weakening the phenological mismatch. We thus show that the relationships between temperature, phenologies of prey and predator, and selection on predator phenology are robust, also in times of a slowdown of warming. Using projected temperatures from a large ensemble of climate simulations that take natural climate variability into account, we show that prey phenology is again projected to advance faster than great tit phenology in the coming decades, and therefore that long-term global warming will intensify phenological mismatches.

Long-term warming does not affect soil ecoenzyme activity and original microbial nutrient limitation on the Qinghai—Tibet Plateau

Microbes play an important role in the carbon cycle and nutrient flow of the soil ecosystem. However, the response of microbial activities to long-term warming over decades is poorly understood. To determine how warming changes ecoenzyme activity and microbial nutrient limitation, we conducted a long-term, 21 years, experiment, on the Qinghai—Tibet Plateau. We selected typical grass- and shrub-covered plots, used fiberglass open-top chambers (OTCs) to raise the temperature, conducted soil sampling at different depths, studied the response of nutrient-acquiring enzyme activity and stoichiometry, and conducted vector analysis of stoichiometry. Our results showed that long-term warming did not have a notable effect on the activity of nutrient-acquiring enzymes or enzymatic stoichiometry. However, Spearman correlation analysis indicated a significant and positive correlation between ecoenzyme activity and the available nutrients and microbial biomass in soil. Vector analysis of stoichiometry showed phosphorus limitation for all soil microbes at different depths, regardless of whether the soil experienced warming. These changes in enzymatic stoichiometry and vector analysis suggested that microbial nutrient limitation was not alleviated substantially by long-term warming, and warming did not considerably affect the stratification of microbial nutrient limitation. Our research has also shown that long-term warming does not significantly change soil ecoenzyme activity and original microbial nutrient limitation at different soil depths within the OTUs’ impact range. These results could help improve understanding of microbial thermal acclimation and response to future long-term global warming.

Using local ecological knowledge of Fishers to infer the impact of climate variability in Galápagos’ small-scale fisheries

Galápagos has been characterized with great abundance of marine life and high levels of endemism. Due to its geographical position, this archipelago experiences tremendous climate variability during El Niño events, which disturb the entire marine food web, and ultimately affect the artisanal fishing activity. In this study, we explored the main impacts of El Niño events on artisanal fishing and marine life using the local ecological knowledge provided by four generations of fishers on the most populated islands in Galápagos. Anecdotal information and perceptions coincided with the current scientific literature and provided novel insights about: (i) the positive and negative effects of the El Niño years on artisanal fisheries and marine animals, (ii) differences in species caught during warm and cold seasons and (iii) current interactions among artisanal fisheries, tourism and unauthorized industrial fisheries activities within the 40 nautical miles that surround the Galápagos Marine Reserve. In addition, fishers provided valuable information for governing resources under anomalously warm years, by identifying sites that function as natural refuges for fish and invertebrates during El Niño events. Data derived from these interviews highlight an urgent need for a novel, bottom-up and collaborative fisheries governance, between the artisanal fishing sector and decision and policy makers in Galápagos. Collaborative initiatives, involving one of the sectors that first inhabited the archipelago, is essential to achieve sustainable and long-term use of marine resources and to increase and anticipate human and environmental resilience under continued long-term global warming.

Size reduction of conodonts indicates high ecological stress during the late Frasnian under greenhouse climate conditions in South China

The Late Frasnian mass extinction (LFME) during extreme greenhouse conditions had a serious impact on biotic evolution. Herein, based on detailed size measurements of 1783 elements of the conodont genera Polygnathus and Palmatolepis at the Lali and Duan sections in South China, conodont animals underwent significant size reduction at the genus level during the late Frasnian. The “Bergmann's rule” controlled the evolution of Frasnian conodont animals, and their size reduction during the late Frasnian may have resulted from long-term global warming and indicated high ecological stress before the Frasnian-Famennian boundary (FFB). This phenomenon can explain why the decline of benthic faunas, such as corals, brachiopods or metazoan reefs, predated the extinction of pelagic faunas, such as conodonts in the Upper Kellwasser (UKW) event and at the FFB.

Disproportionate increase in freshwater methane emissions induced by experimental warming

Net emissions of the potent GHG methane from ecosystems represent the balance between microbial methane production (methanogenesis) and oxidation (methanotrophy), each with different sensitivities to temperature. How this balance will be altered by long-term global warming, especially in freshwaters that are major methane sources, remains unknown. Here we show that the experimental warming of artificial ponds over 11 years drives a disproportionate increase in methanogenesis over methanotrophy that increases the warming potential of the gases they emit. The increased methane emissions far exceed temperature-based predictions, driven by shifts in the methanogen community under warming, while the methanotroph community was conserved. Our experimentally induced increase in methane emissions from artificial ponds is, in part, reflected globally as a disproportionate increase in the capacity of naturally warmer ecosystems to emit more methane. Our findings indicate that as Earth warms, natural ecosystems will emit disproportionately more methane in a positive feedback warming loop. Methane emissions are determined by the balance of microbial methane production relative to consumption. Warming drives larger increases in methane production than consumption in experimental ponds, suggesting that natural ecosystems may represent a positive feedback under climate change.

A geochemical and biostratigraphic approach to investigating regional changes in sandstone composition through time; an example from Paleocene–Eocene strata, Taranaki Basin, New Zealand

AbstractA geochemical and biostratigraphic approach has been applied to investigate the spatial and stratigraphic variability of Palaeogene sandstones from key wells in Taranaki Basin, New Zealand. Chronostratigraphic control is predominantly based on miospore zonation, while differences in the composition of Paleocene and Eocene sandstones are supported by geochemical evidence. Stratigraphic changes are manifested by a significant decrease in Na2O across the New Zealand miospore PM3b/MH1 early Eocene zonal boundary, at approximately 53.5 Ma. The change in Na2O is associated with a decrease in baseline concentrations of many other major (MnO, CaO, TiO2) and trace elements, and is interpreted to reflect a significant change in sandstone maturity. Paleocene sandstones are characterized by abundant plagioclase (albite and locally Na–Ca plagioclase), significant biotite and a range of heavy minerals, while Eocene sandstones are typically quartzose, with K-feldspar dominant over plagioclase, low mica contents and rare heavy minerals comprising a resistant suite. This change could reflect a change in provenance from local plutonic basement during the Paleocene Epoch to relatively quartz- and K-feldspar-rich granitic sources during Eocene time. However, significant quartz enrichment of Eocene sediment was also likely due to transportation reworking/winnowing along the palaeoshoreface and enhanced chemical weathering, driven in part by long-term global warming associated with the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum. The broad-ranging changes in major-element composition overprint local variations in sediment provenance, which are only detectable from the immobile trace-element geochemistry.

Analyses on the Contribution of Natural Gas in the World and Japan as Medium- and Long-term Global Warming Countermeasures

Analyses on the Contribution of Natural Gas in the World and Japan as Medium- and Long-term Global Warming Countermeasures

Ocean–Atmosphere Dynamical Coupling Fundamental to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

Abstract The North Atlantic has shown large multidecadal temperature shifts during the twentieth century. There is ongoing debate about whether this variability arises primarily through the influence of atmospheric internal variability, through changes in ocean circulation, or as a response to anthropogenic forcing. This study isolates the mechanisms driving Atlantic sea surface temperature variability on multidecadal time scales by using low-frequency component analysis (LFCA) to separate the influences of high-frequency variability, multidecadal variability, and long-term global warming. This analysis objectively identifies the North Atlantic subpolar gyre as the dominant region of Atlantic multidecadal variability. In unforced control runs of coupled climate models, warm subpolar temperatures are associated with a strengthened Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and anomalous local heat fluxes from the ocean into the atmosphere. Atmospheric variability plays a role in the intensification and subsequent weakening of ocean overturning and helps to communicate warming into the tropical Atlantic. These findings suggest that dynamical coupling between atmospheric and oceanic circulations is fundamental to the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) and motivate approaching decadal prediction with a focus on ocean circulation.

Risks for the global freshwater system at 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming

To support implementation of the Paris Agreement, the new HAPPI ensemble of 20 bias-corrected simulations of four climate models was used to drive two global hydrological models, WaterGAP and LPJmL, for assessing freshwater-related hazards and risks in worlds approximately 1.5 °C and 2 °C warmer than pre-industrial. Quasi-stationary HAPPI simulations are better suited than transient CMIP-like simulations for assessing hazards at the two targeted long-term global warming (GW) levels. We analyzed seven hydrological hazard indicators that characterize freshwater-related hazards for humans, freshwater biota and vegetation. Using a strict definition for significant differences, we identified for all but one indicator that areas with either significantly wetter or drier conditions (calculated as percent changes from 2006–2015) are smaller in the 1.5 °C world. For example, 7 day high flow is projected to increase significantly on 11% and 21% of the global land area at 1.5 °C and 2 °C, respectively. However, differences between hydrological hazards at the two GW levels are significant on less than 12% of the area. GW affects a larger area and more people by increases—rather than by decreases—of mean annual and 1-in-10 dry year streamflow, 7 day high flow, and groundwater recharge. The opposite is true for 7 day low flow, maximum snow storage, and soil moisture in the driest month of the growing period. Mean annual streamflow shows the lowest projected percent changes of all indicators. Among country groups, low income countries and lower middle income countries are most affected by decreased low flows and increased high flows, respectively, while high income countries are least affected by such changes. The incremental impact between 1.5 °C and 2 °C on high flows would be felt most by low income and lower middle income countries, the effect on soil moisture and low flows most by high income countries.

Alpine soil carbon is vulnerable to rapid microbial decomposition under climate cooling.

As climate cooling is increasingly regarded as important natural variability of long-term global warming trends, there is a resurging interest in understanding its impact on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. Here, we report a soil transplant experiment from lower to higher elevations in a Tibetan alpine grassland to simulate the impact of cooling on ecosystem community structure and function. Three years of cooling resulted in reduced plant productivity and microbial functional potential (for example, carbon respiration and nutrient cycling). Microbial genetic markers associated with chemically recalcitrant carbon decomposition remained unchanged despite a decrease in genes associated with chemically labile carbon decomposition. As a consequence, cooling-associated changes correlated with a decrease in soil organic carbon (SOC). Extrapolation of these results suggests that for every 1 °C decrease in annual average air temperature, 0.1 Pg (0.3%) of SOC would be lost from the Tibetan plateau. These results demonstrate that microbial feedbacks to cooling have the potential to differentially impact chemically labile and recalcitrant carbon turnover, which could lead to strong, adverse consequences on soil C storage. Our findings are alarming, considering the frequency of short-term cooling and its scale to disrupt ecosystems and biogeochemical cycling.