Long-term Generation Mix Research Articles

Multi-objective optimization for sustainable development of the power sector: An economic, environmental, and social analysis of Iran

This paper aims to analyze Iran's long-term power sector development from economic, environmental, social, and sustainable perspectives. For this purpose, a linear programming model is developed, which includes three objective functions: minimization of costs, minimization of CO2 emissions, and maximization of created jobs. To provide a sustainable plan, analytical hierarchy process is employed to allocate expert-based weights to the objective functions. Moreover, to support the decision-makers, Pareto-optimal alternatives are explored by varying the weights of objectives. The multi-objective model is solved by applying a weighted method based on fuzzy membership functions. The results show that a sustainable scenario leads to high technology diversification. Furthermore, the combined cycle would be the dominant option in Iran's long-term generation mix. In addition, power generation from non-hydro renewables, solar PV in particular, should grow faster than the total electricity demand. The findings indicate that the economic scenario fulfills Iran's commitment to 4% reduction of emissions compared to the current trend; however, the sustainable and environmental scenarios would cause achievement of the superior 12% reduction goal. Multi-objective analysis shows that moving away from one's objective optimum value leads to significant improvements in other objective values.

Optimum Generation Mix Possibilities for Malaysia Power Sector in 2030

This paper presents findings from optimization of a long-term generation mix for Malaysia electricity power supply using Dynamic Programming (DP) technique. The optimization is modelled to minimize the total costs as the objective function subjects to demand and policy constraints. . Several technologies have been used for generation candidates such as coal, gas and nuclear. The model has been tested on a generation portfolio based on Malaysia power system. Result shows that a balance generation mix for Malaysia in 2030 will be 30% is from coal, 31.6% from gas, 17.5% from nuclear, 6.8% from hydro and 14% from RE.

Multi-objective optimization model for sustainable Indonesian electricity system: Analysis of economic, environment, and adequacy of energy sources

This paper presents a multi-objective optimization model for a long-term generation mix in Indonesia. The objective of this work is to assess the economic, environment, and adequacy of local energy sources. The model includes two competing objective functions to seek the lowest cost of generation and the lowest CO2 emissions while considering technology diffusion. The scenarios include the use of fossil reserves with or without the constraints of the reserve to production ratio and exports. The results indicate that Indonesia should develop all renewable energy and requires imported coal and natural gas. If all fossil resources were upgraded to reserves, electricity demand in 2050 could be met by domestic energy sources. The maximum share of renewable energy that can be achieved in 2050 is 33% with and 80% without technology diffusion. The least cost optimization produces lower generation costs than the least CO2 emissions, as well as the combined scenario. Total CO2 emissions in 2050 are five to six times as large as current emissions. The least CO2 emissions scenario can reduce almost half of the CO2 emissions of the least cost scenario by 2050. The proposed multi-objective optimization model leads some optimal solutions for a more sustainable electricity system.

An Application of the Multi-Objective Approach for the Evaluation of Long-Term Electrical Generation Optimum Mix: a Case Study

This paper presents findings from optimization of a long-term generation mix for Malaysia electricity power supply. The optimization is modeled as multi-objective functions i.e. to minimize the costs of supplying electricity as well as to minimize CO2 emission. This research uses Dynamic Programming (DP) incorporates with Efficiency Multi-Criteria decision technique in modeling the multi-objective generation mix for Malaysia. Several technologies have been used for generation candidates such as coal, gas and nuclear. Analyses was first performed for base case and then sensitivity analyses was included to study the impact of uncertainty in some parameters on the generation mix; 1) nuclear as expansion plant, 2) gas price variations and 3) renewable energy development. Result shows that a balance generation mix for Malaysia in 2030 will be 30% is from coal, 31.6% from gas, 17.5% from nuclear, 6.8% from hydro and 14% from RE. Sensitivity analyses conclude that the inclusion of nuclear in the generation mix will mostly affect gas technology. On the other hand, increasing the gas price and the RE target policy will affect the development of coal and gas in the generation mix as well as increasing the total cost and CO2 emission.

CO2 Emission Reduction and Primary Energy Conservation Effects of Cogeneration System in Commercial and Residential Sectors Considering Long-Term Power Generation Mix in Japan

This paper proposes a comprehensive model to examine future CO2 emission reduction and primary energy conservation through the installation of a cogeneration system (CGS) in commercial and residential sectors of Japan considering its long-term power generation mix. With the development of a CGS model and a long-term generation mix model on cost minimizing basis, Japan’s prospective power generation structure is figured out and the potential of CO2 emission reduction and primary energy conservation by a CGS is evaluated. With considerable uncertainty remaining concerning various assumptions made for the model analysis, following results are identified. (1) In all fuel price scenarios in power plants, the installation of CGS in commercial and residential sectors accomplishes the reduction of primary energy consumption. (2) In a standard fuel price scenario, the installation of CGS in commercial and residential sectors achieves the reduction of CO2 emission. In a low fuel price scenario which is the case current fuel prices continue for the future, however, CO2 reduction effect becomes decreasing compared to the standard fuel price scenario because of the dominant generation share of a LNG fired plant and a LNG combined cycle in future generation mix and these less carbon intensive plants replaced by CGS. In the case where nuclear power plant becomes competitive and increases its share in future generation mix, CO2 emission from energy system conversely increases by installing CGS in comparison with before installing, because electric power generation of CGS gradually replaces a nuclear power plant. These results suggest that the CO2 reduction potential by CGS introduction is cautiously evaluated taking into consideration the future power plant construction program in Japan.