Long-term Gain Research Articles

Association of 6-year waist-circumference change with progression from prehypertension to hypertension: the Rural Chinese Cohort Study.

Whether dynamic change in waist circumference is associated with progression from prehypertension to hypertension is not well understood. We explored this issue. A total of 4221 prehypertensive adults ≥18 years were enrolled during 2007-2008 and followed up during 2013-2014. Participants were classified by percentage waist-circumference change at follow-up: ≤-2.5, -2.5 to ≤2.5, 2.5 to ≤5.0, and >5.0%. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated with logistic regression models, with stable waist-circumference change (-2.5 to 2.5%) as the reference. During the 6 years of follow-up, 1464 prehypertensive patients (851 women) showed progression to hypertension, with an incidence rate of 32.7% for men and 36.3% for women. As compared with stable waist circumference, a waist-circumference gain > 5.0% was associated with increased hypertension risk: adjusted ORs (95% CI) were 1.08 (1.01-1.14) for men and 1.09 (1.04-1.15) for women. The risk also decreased significantly for men with ≥2.5% waist-circumference loss (OR = 0.94, 95% CI 0.88-1.00). We found a linear association between percentage waist-circumference gain and risk of progression from prehypertension to hypertension for both sexes by restricted cubic splines (pnonlinearity = 0.772 for men and 0.779 for women). For each 10% gain in waist circumference, the risk increased by 8% for men and 5% for women. The association remained significant for both sexes in a subgroup analysis by abdominal obesity at baseline. The long-term gain in waist circumference significantly increased the risk of progression from prehypertension to hypertension for both sexes in a rural Chinese population, regardless of abdominal obesity status at baseline.

Accrual Management and the Decision to Sell or Hold Shares Acquired from the Exercise of Employee Stock Options

ABSTRACT This study extends the employee stock option literature by examining how the timing of sales of shares acquired at exercise varies with accrual management both before and after the exercise date. We find evidence that accrual management prior to exercise is positively associated with the decision to quickly sell shares after exercise, increasing the profitability of a short-term exercise-and-sell strategy. Alternatively, we find that post-exercise accrual management is associated with executives choosing to delay selling shares, consistent with minimizing personal income taxes. Specifically, our results suggest that executives are more likely to sell immediately after satisfying the minimum (12 month) holding period for long-term capital gain treatment when they have more income-increasing accruals during the holding period. These results expand on prior research that focused on earnings management leading up to option exercise. JEL Classifications: H24; J33; M12; M21; M52. Data Availability: Data are available from the public sources cited in the text.

Intravitreal Recombinant Tissue Plasminogen Activator and Sulphur Hexafluoride Gas for Submacular Haemorrhage Displacement in Age-Related Macular Degeneration: Looking behind the Blood

Purpose: To evaluate the effectiveness of recombinant tissue plasminogen activator (rtPA) and sulphur hexafluoride gas (SF₆) intravitreal injection for the displacement of large submacular haemorrhages (SMH) secondary to neovascular age-related macular degeneration and for guiding the selection of additional treatments or observations for choroidal neovascularization (CNV). Methods: The medical records of consecutive patients with recent-onset, large SMH, treated at Sacro Cuore Hospital from January 2004 to May 2016, were retrospectively analysed. All eyes underwent a 0.05-mL intravitreal injection of 50 μg rtPA, 0.3 mL of 100% SF₆, and then face-down positioning. Afterwards, the eyes received additional treatments for CNV or observation, based on the severity and extent of the underlying pathology. The multimodal imaging features revealed after blood displacement were analysed and then correlated to the treatment selected as a second therapeutic option. Results: A total of 96 eyes met the inclusion criteria and was evaluated in this study. SMH was displaced from the fovea in the majority of the eyes (76%), allowing several diagnostic tools to evaluate the underlying macular features. In 19 cases (19.8%) exhibiting severe macular damage, no additional treatment was applied. In the remaining eyes, subsequent treatments included anti-vascular endothelial growth factor injections (44.8%), photodynamic therapy (n = 2), and submacular surgery (35.4%). Statistically significant correlations were found between the macular findings revealed after blood displacement and the additional treatments or observations selected for the underlying disease. The mean follow-up was 35 months. Improvements in visual acuity were statistically significant up to 3 years. Conclusion: Intravitreal rtPA and gas injection was found to be effective for the displacement of large SMH, allowing postoperative diagnostic testing, and thus guiding the opportunity to apply further treatments. The addition of subsequent individualized treatments may allow long-term visual gain in selected cases.

Beliefs, Learning, and Personality in the Indefinitely Repeated Prisoner's Dilemma

The indefinitely repeated prisoner's dilemma (IRPD) captures the trade-off between the short-term payoff from exploiting economic partners and the long-term gain from building successful relationships. We aim to understand more about how people form and use beliefs about others in the IRPD. To do so, we elicit beliefs about the supergame strategies chosen by others. We find that initial beliefs match behavior quite well and that most subjects choose strategies that perform well given their beliefs. Motivated by belief clustering, we use beliefs to estimate a level-k model of boundedly rational thinking. We analyze how beliefs and behavior evolve with experience: beliefs become more accurate over time, and we use beliefs to provide new evidence about the mechanism that underlies learning from experience. Finally, we find that a survey measure of trust predicts cooperative behavior and optimism about others' cooperation, which helps to explain how trust underpins successful economic exchanges.

Does the Dream of Home Ownership Rest Upon Biased Beliefs? A Test Based on Predicted and Realized Life Satisfaction

The belief that home ownership makes people happy is probably one of the most widespread intuitive theories of happiness. However, whether it is accurate is an open question. Based on individual panel data, we explore whether home buyers systematically overestimate the life satisfaction associated with living in their privately owned property. To identify potential prediction errors, we compare people’s forecasts of their life satisfaction in five years’ time with their current realizations. We find that, while moving into a purchased dwelling is associated with higher life satisfaction, people systematically overestimate the long-term satisfaction gain. The misprediction therein is driven by people who follow extrinsically-oriented life goals, highlighting biased beliefs regarding own preferences as a relevant mechanism in the prediction errors.

Stewardship in the Hong Kong International Financial Centre: Adding ‘Responsible Owners’ to an Entrepreneurial Market

Hong Kong’s “Principles of Responsible Ownership,” issued by its Securities and Futures Commission, offer a telling example of what it means to be an international financial centre in 21st century Asia. The point of this stewardship code is to nudge institutional investors toward responsible voice and away from careless action and exit. This meets a problem seen as urgent 90 years ago by Berle and Means, and also in the 2010s following the global financial crisis and the rise of aggressive activist funds and of giant index funds. Hong Kong listed companies, however, tend to be controlled by ‘entrepreneurial’ owners – families or very large holding companies, not financial investors. Such entrepreneurial owners are active, informed and have a long-term orientation, which are three adjectives one would associate with responsible ownership. The non-binding duties expressed in a stewardship code will probably not affect an otherwise self-interested drive to manage listed companies for long-term gain. This does this mean Hong Kong was wrong to adopt a stewardship code. The business of an international financial centre is to attract capital and listings from the entire world. This business model demands use of globally recognized standards, even if poorly matched with local needs. Although such a code is unnecessary for the real Hong Kong market, it is crucial for Hong Kong to signal membership in the dominant network of Anglo-American law. The stewardship code’s effect is thus very real despite the fact that it lacks all substance in controlling shareholder behaviour.

Mixing Management Fee Waivers with Mayo

The 2012 presidential election cycle brought national attention to a strategy used by private equity firms, like the one founded by Mitt Romney, to convert ordinary income into long-term capital gains. Under the strategy, a private equity firm waives its right to a fixed fee from a managed fund. Instead of the fixed fee, which would be taxed at high rates, the firm receives an additional profits interest (or “waiver interest”) in the fund. If this strategy has its intended effect, income allocated to the waiver interest qualifies as low-taxed long-term capital gain.This apparent conversion of ordinary income to long-term capital gain has drawn withering criticism from several respected commentators. Private equity firms, many of which already enjoy spectacular income, have allegedly engaged in aggressive or illegal behavior by taking a waiver interest rather than a fixed fee payment. According to the commentators, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) could successfully challenge the fee waiver strategy because (1) section 707(a)(2)(A) allows the IRS to recharacterize the transaction as one between strangers (and thus generating ordinary income), (2) a distribution regarding income allocated to the waiver interest may qualify as a “guaranteed payment” under section 707(c) and would again give rise to ordinary income, and (3) the receipt of the waiver interest qualifies as a recognition event under the common law authorities related to profits interests.

Boosting Genetic Gain in Allogamous Crops via Speed Breeding and Genomic Selection.

Breeding schemes that utilize modern breeding methods like genomic selection (GS) and speed breeding (SB) have the potential to accelerate genetic gain for different crops. We investigated through stochastic computer simulation the advantages and disadvantages of adopting both GS and SB (SpeedGS) into commercial breeding programs for allogamous crops. In addition, we studied the effect of omitting one or two selection stages from the conventional phenotypic scheme on GS accuracy, genetic gain, and inbreeding. As an example, we simulated GS and SB for five traits (heading date, forage yield, seed yield, persistency, and quality) with different genetic architectures and heritabilities (0.7, 0.3, 0.4, 0.1, and 0.3; respectively) for a tall fescue breeding program. We developed a new method to simulate correlated traits with complex architectures of which effects can be sampled from multiple distributions, e.g. to simulate the presence of both minor and major genes. The phenotypic selection scheme required 11 years, while the proposed SpeedGS schemes required four to nine years per cycle. Generally, SpeedGS schemes resulted in higher genetic gain per year for all traits especially for traits with low heritability such as persistency. Our results showed that running more SB rounds resulted in higher genetic gain per cycle when compared to phenotypic or GS only schemes and this increase was more pronounced per year when cycle time was shortened by omitting cycle stages. While GS accuracy declined with additional SB rounds, the decline was less in round three than in round two, and it stabilized after the fourth SB round. However, more SB rounds resulted in higher inbreeding rate, which could limit long-term genetic gain. The inbreeding rate was reduced by approximately 30% when generating the initial population for each cycle through random crosses instead of generating half-sib families. Our study demonstrated a large potential for additional genetic gain from combining GS and SB. Nevertheless, methods to mitigate inbreeding should be considered for optimal utilization of these highly accelerated breeding programs.

The long-term impact of providing nursing education in a low-income country.

To measure long-term knowledge gain after provision of nursing education in a low-income country. Global health education research has often focused on the short- term effects of providing education and direct patient care. Assessment of long-term knowledge gain is key for determining whether education knowledge transfer is sustainable. This prospective cohort study of educational training for nurses in Haiti tested knowledge gain before, immediately after, and 6months after education. Quantitative assessments were obtained through multiple choice tests at 3 time points. Qualitative data were obtained through focus groups and self-assessments. Knowledge gain was significant from pretest to immediate posttest, and knowledge retention was assessed at 6months after the education. Qualitative data showed improvement in reported confidence levels and patient care activities. Short-term knowledge gain was statistically significant for improvement; however, long-term knowledge gain was statistically significant in only 4 of 19 lectures. Reported qualitative improvements in patient care indicated added value of providing education to the nursing staff. Hands-on learning techniques were important to long-term retention, and building trust was vital to the completion of our study.

“The Mould that Changed the World”: a quantitative and qualitative evaluation of knowledge and behavioural change in children in the UK following participation in a musical about antimicrobial resistance

BackgroundA primary school musical—“The Mould that Changed the World”—was developed as a unique public engagement strategy to combat antimicrobial resistance (AMR) by engaging children in the story of the discovery of antibiotics, the risks of drug-resistant infections, and the importance of prudent antibiotic use. MethodsThe musical intervention was implemented in two UK primary schools. Parental consent was obtained for all participating children. All 182 participating children, aged 9–11 years, were given an online questionnaire in the classroom before rehearsals began and at 2 weeks after performance with a 6-month evaluation in one school. The effect of the musical was analysed using generalised linear models to control for confounding factors. For the qualitative evaluation, 15 participating children were selected randomly from each school to take part in semi-structured focus groups (n=5 per group) before rehearsals began and 2 weeks after performance. This study was approved by the University of Edinburgh research governance office as an evaluation of an intervention. FindingsConsistent with other intervention studies, knowledge gain was shown with children being more likely to answer questions on key messages of the musical correctly 2 weeks after performance (n=161) compared with the pre-rehearsal questionnaire (n=180; odds ratio 4·63 [95% CI 2·46–9·31], p<0·0001 for knowledge that bacteria can become resistant to antibiotics; 3·26 [1·75–6·32], p=0·00014 for knowledge that antibiotic resistant infections can be life threatening; 2·16 [1·39–3·38], p=0·00059 for knowledge that prudent use of antibiotics will halt rise of antibiotic resistant infections). Long-term knowledge gain was shown by a consistent level of correct answers on key messages between 2 weeks (response rate 95%, n=89) and 6 months after the musical (response rate 71%, n=67). Following the musical children participating in the focus groups (n=30) articulated a greater understanding of AMR and the risks of antibiotic overuse. They discussed intention to minimise personal antibiotic use and influence attitudes to antibiotics in their family and friends. InterpretationAlthough only evaluated in two schools, this study shows that initiatives such as musical theatre can improve both short-term and long-term knowledge in children. It shows a hitherto infrequently reported change in attitude and intention to behaviour change in children at an influential age for health beliefs. This unique public health tool has the potential for national roll-out in primary schools across the UK. FundingBritish Society of Antimicrobial Chemotherapy.

Effectiveness of Genomic Selection by Response to Selection for Winter Wheat Variety Improvement.

Prediction performance for winter wheat grain yield and end-use quality traits. Prediction accuracies evaluated by cross-validations are significantly overestimated. Nonparametric algorithms outperform the parametric alternatives in cross-year predictions. Strategically designing training population improves response to selection. Response to selection varies across growing seasons and environments. Considering the practicality of applying genomic selection (GS) in the line development stage of a hard red winter (HRW) wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) variety development program (VDP), the effectiveness of GS was evaluated by prediction accuracy and by the response to selection across field seasons that demonstrated challenges for crop improvement under significant climate variability. Important breeding targets for wheat improvement in the southern Great Plains of the United States, including grain yield, kernel weight, wheat protein content, and sodium dodecyl sulfate (SDS) sedimentation volume as a rapid test for predicting bread-making quality, were used to estimate the effectiveness of GS across harvest years from 2014 (drought) to 2016 (normal). In general, nonparametric algorithms reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) and random forest (RF) produced higher accuracies in both same-year cross-validations (CVs) and cross-year predictions for the purpose of line selection. Further, the stability of GS performance was greatest for SDS sedimentation volume but least for wheat protein content. To ensure long-term genetic gain, our study on selection response suggested that across this sample of environmental variability, and though there are cases where phenotypic selection (PS) might be still preferred, training conducted under drought or in suboptimal conditions could provide an encouraging prediction outcome when selection decisions were made in normal conditions. However, it is not advisable to use training information collected from a normal season to predict trait performance under drought conditions. Finally, the superiority of response to selection was most evident if the training population (TP) can be optimized.

The laser-based gain monitoring system of the calorimeters in the Muon g−2 experiment at Fermilab

The Muon g−2 experiment, E989, is currently taking data at Fermilab with the aim of reducing the experimental error on the muon anomaly by a factor of four and possibly clarifying the current discrepancy with the theoretical prediction. A central component of this four-fold improvement in precision is the laser calibration system of the calorimeters, which has to monitor the gain variations of the photo-sensors with a 0.04% precision on the short-term (∼ 1 ms). This is about one order of magnitude better than what has ever been achieved for the calibration of a particle physics calorimeter. The system is designed to monitor also long-term gain variations, mostly due to temperature effects, with a precision below the per mille level. This article reviews the design, the implementation and the performance of the Muon g−2 laser calibration system, showing how the experimental requirements have been met.

Improving Short- and Long-Term Genetic Gain by Accounting for Within-Family Variance in Optimal Cross-Selection.

The implementation of genomic selection in recurrent breeding programs raises the concern that a higher inbreeding rate could compromise the long-term genetic gain. An optimized mating strategy that maximizes the performance in progeny and maintains diversity for long-term genetic gain is therefore essential. The optimal cross-selection approach aims at identifying the optimal set of crosses that maximizes the expected genetic value in the progeny under a constraint on genetic diversity in the progeny. Optimal cross-selection usually does not account for within-family selection, i.e., the fact that only a selected fraction of each family is used as parents of the next generation. In this study, we consider within-family variance accounting for linkage disequilibrium between quantitative trait loci to predict the expected mean performance and the expected genetic diversity in the selected progeny of a set of crosses. These predictions rely on the usefulness criterion parental contribution (UCPC) method. We compared UCPC-based optimal cross-selection and the optimal cross-selection approach in a long-term simulated recurrent genomic selection breeding program considering overlapping generations. UCPC-based optimal cross-selection proved to be more efficient to convert the genetic diversity into short- and long-term genetic gains than optimal cross-selection. We also showed that, using the UCPC-based optimal cross-selection, the long-term genetic gain can be increased with only a limited reduction of the short-term commercial genetic gain.

Unsustainable vs. Sustainable Hunting for Food in Gabon: Modeling Short- and Long-Term Gains and Losses

Today, rural people continue to consume wild animals (aquatic and terrestrial) because they are often cheaper and more available than farmed livestock and fish. In many places where the meat from wild animals is an important source of food and income for poor rural families, the capture, consumption or trade of wild animals is illegal and remains within the informal sector and outside of national accounting and regulatory systems. Few studies exist to help policy makers and wildlife managers develop and implement systems designed to halt unsustainable hunting, prevent species loss, and maintain, over the long term, flows of wildlife available to people as a source of food and income. This paper uses empirical data from a tropical forest area in Gabon within a heuristic simulation model to explore how hunter capture rates would need to change over time to halt unsustainable hunting and to maximize the nutritional and economic value of wildlife as a source of food and income over the long term. Results show that sustainable hunting of wildlife populations that are at or near 50% of carrying capacity (0.5K) generates more biomass available for consumption and income generation over 25 years than either hunting to maintain current population densities or continuing to hunt unsustainably. Unsustainable hunting generates more biomass than sustainable hunting but only for the first 1 to 3 years after which offtake dwindles rapidly. Achieving sustainable hunting will require that hunters reduce their offtake for 3-13 years until depleted populations recover, which may be unlikely unless they have access to alternative sources of food and income.

Five Anabolic Steroids in the Treatment of Inflammatory Bowel Disease

Abstract Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC), the constituents of Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD), are the most destructive benign diseases of young adults. Two-hundred thousand young men and women in North America will have major bowel resection annually, half to experience a premature death and many an increased risk of colorectal cancer. New cases in the youngest quadrille are appearing at a 0.5 percent rate per year. Adalimumab, the last pharmaceutical TNF-inhibitor drug approved for IBD was 17 years ago. Adalimumab's failure rate is 40 percent by year two, 60 percent by year five, and the 12-year German study questions whether there is any long-term gain in quality of life at all. The problems to date in understanding and treating IBD are that no one has identified the cause, no specific biomarkers are recognized, no alternatives to overtly toxic medications and no alternatives exist for inevitable surgical resections. That has changed. There are now serum hormonal biomarkers that are highly predictive of flairs in Crohn's diseases; the first being the nuclear membrane Estrogen Receptor-beta/Estrogen Receptor-alpha ratio. The second being bioavailable testosterone measured as the Free Androgen Index. Causation is clearly demarcated to hormonal dysregulation at the Hypothalamic-Pituitary-Gonadal Axis suppressing testosterone production. Five inexpensive, generic, FDA approved anabolic steroid medications have been successfully used to treat IBD, albeit, not the recognized standard of care. Here is the future of medicine: After initial medical information intake, measure Gender Specific Medicine biomarkers of gonadal hormones (causation) and then treat to normalize these biomarkers. Admixtures of anabolic steroids should reset the biomarkers and reduce the autoimmune, inflammatory, and systemic aspects of disease. Remission may be attainable with even the most resistant Crohn's and Ulcerative Colitis patients as observed in the Case Reports.

Long-term mechanical properties of cellulose fibre-reinforced cement mortar with diatomite

This paper presents a study investigating the long-term mechanical properties of cellulose fibre-reinforced cement mortars incorporating diatomite as a replacement material for quartz sand. Important properties including mass, compressive and flexural strength, sorptivity, water penetration depth and porosity have been rigorously investigated. Significant findings demonstrated that increasing the replacement level of diatomite resulted in a systematic decrease in the final mass of cellulose fibre-reinforced cement mortars and a dramatic increase in both flexural and compressive strength. In the short term, sorptivity, water penetration depth and porosity were enhanced, whereas the pozzolanicity of diatomite provided long-term strength gain over the 6 month period of study. Microstructural development of mortars, confirmed using scanning electron microscopy, revealed a denser, more compact structure in the diatomite specimens, which was consistent with the physical property measurements. This research supports the development of environmentally friendly diatomite-based mortars for construction.

Short- and long-term gain dynamics in N2+ air lasing

Air lasing in the nitrogen molecular ion is not well understood because the complex physics responsible for gain is interwoven with pulse propagation in an extreme environment. Here we use a short gas jet to limit the interaction length, thereby removing the propagation effects. We report on several mechanisms that contribute to the decay of gain in different conditions, and experimentally isolate two decay timescales: the decay of long-term gain due to collisional state mixing, and short-term gain that cannot be explained by population inversion. To test the former, we control the inelastic electron scattering rate by varying the gas concentration while keeping the propagation length fixed, and predict the change of the decay using a model of collisional state mixing. We show that the same mechanism causes the decay of rotational wave packets in the states of the ion. Finally, we simulate the complex modulations of gain due to rotational wave packets and the propagation of the probe pulse through the evolving rotationally excited and inverted medium.

Multi-Armed Bandit Beam Alignment and Tracking for Mobile Millimeter Wave Communications

We propose a novel beam alignment and tracking algorithm for time-varying millimeter wave channels with a dynamic channel support. Millimeter wave beam alignment is challenging due to the expected large number of antennas. A multi-armed bandit training beam selection policy is used to balance exploration of the set of feasible beams. We track the channel using a synthesis of sparse Bayesian learning and Kalman filtering and smoothing. Results show our algorithm has a more rapid rate of initial beam alignment compared to other beam selection policies and, for dynamic channel support, long-term beamforming gain commensurate to omni-directional training.

Serum ferritin as a diagnostic marker for cardiac iron overload among beta-thalassemia major children

Introduction: Beta-thalassemia major is the most common chronic hemolytic anemia. It is a well-comprehended fact that the toxic effects of iron overload particularly the cardiomyopathy are the major complication that roots from beta-thalassemia major children. Therefore, timely diagnosis is crucial to optimize the long-term gain. Objective: The objective of the study is to find the cutoff level of serum ferritin for early diagnosis of cardiac iron overload. Materials and Methods: This study was an observational analytical cross-sectional diagnostic study which was conducted from November 2016 to October 2018. With due approval of Institutional Ethics Committee and after taking proper informed consent from the parents and/or legal heir, 105 thalassemic children were enrolled in the study by simple consecutive sampling after satisfying the pre-defined inclusion and exclusion criteria. In this study, two-dimensional Doppler echocardiography was used to detect cardiac iron overload. Serum ferritin levels were estimated, and cutoff values were calculated for each of the echocardiographic parameters of cardiac iron overload, i.e. ejection fraction (EF), left ventricular end-diastolic diameter (LVEDD), and left ventricular end-systolic diameter (LVESD) by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Sensitivity (Sn), specificity (Sp), positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were calculated with considering p&lt;0.05 as statistically significant. Results: The mean age of the study participants was 9±3 years. Cutoff value of serum ferritin for detecting abnormality in EF was 3286 ng/ml with Sn of 76.1% and Sp of 88.1%. Similarly, for detecting abnormal LVEDD, cutoff value of serum ferritin was 4640 ng/ml with Sn of 70.1% and Sp of 98.6%, and for LVESD, it was 3286 ng/ml with Sn of 90% and Sp of 70.5%. Conclusion: The serum ferritin level can be used as a reliable marker of myocardial iron overload among childhood beta-thalassemia and hence can be used as an important screening tool.

Short-Term Pain for Long-Term Gain: The Logic of Legislative Party Switching in the Contemporary American South

One of the most important career decisions for a legislator is the decision to switch parties, and it raises a theoretical puzzle: it carries significant risk, yet sometimes legislators do change partisan affiliation. We elucidate this puzzle with the first-ever systematic comparison of the entire careers of state legislative switchers and non-switchers in the American South, where the high prevalence of party switching coincided with rapid realignment toward the Republican Party. Our analysis is the first to evaluate all post-switch career decisions (retiring, running for reelection, running for higher office) simultaneously, and it is the broadest in its scope with two full decades of career data. We demonstrate that converts to the Grand Old Party (GOP) pay a reelection cost. However, they are less likely to retire than Democratic non-switchers and more likely to seek higher office. This latter finding is especially strong during the earlier part of our study—when the Republican bench in the South was not as deep and competition for the party label was not as intense. Our findings suggest that political ambition motivates legislators to trade short-term electoral costs for a more promising long-term electoral career with the ascendant party.