Long-term Flares Research Articles

Multiple-wavelength Correlation and Variation Study for 3C 279 at Various Timescales

The study on variation phenomena of blazars can shed light on the jet activity and structures. We collect nearly ten years γ-ray, X-ray, optical, and radio light curves of the target 3C 279, and use the local cross-correlation function to perform the correlation analysis among them. Based on lags among different wavelengths, we obtain that the optical as well as the X-ray emitting regions are and pc away from the jet base, and are upstream of the radio core region. The optical and γ-ray emitting regions are not completely co-spatial. We select several periods to study various variation phenomena at long-term, short-term, and very-short-term timescales. We find a redder when brighter trend of the optical color index at the quiescent state and a bluer when brighter trend at the active state. We also find a softer when brighter trend of the γ-ray at low luminosity and a possible harder when brighter trend at high luminosity. The correlation between the optical polarization and fluxes is complex. We find an anticorrelation for one long-term flare, and positive correlations for two short-term flares. The stack of the multiple optical components can explain the anticorrelation, while the appearance of a dominating component can explain the positive correlations. The disk plus many jet components scenario can explain the complex optical variation behaviors for 3C 279. As a remarkable intermediate synchrotron peaked blazar target, 3C 279 play an important role to understand the classification and transition between the low synchrotron peaked and high synchrotron peaked subclass of blazars, since its variation phenomena shows the indication of connection between these two categories.

Radiative shock oscillation model for the long-term flares of Sgr A*

ABSTRACT We examine time-dependent 2D relativistic radiation magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) flows to develop the shock oscillation model for the long-term flares of Sagittarius A* (Sgr A*). Adopting modified flow parameters in addition to the previous studies, we confirm quasi-periodic flares with periods of ∼5 and 10 d that are compatible with observations by Chandra, Swift, and XMM–Newton monitoring of Sgr A*. Using a simplified two-temperature model of ions and electrons, we find that the flare due to synchrotron emission lags that of bremsstrahlung emission by 1–2 h that are qualitatively comparable to the time lags of 1–5 h reported in several simultaneous observations of radio and X-ray variability in Sgr A*. The synchrotron emission is confined in a core region of 3Rg size with the strong magnetic field, while the bremsstrahlung emission mainly originates in a distant region of 10–20Rg behind the oscillating shock, where Rg is the Schwarzschild radius. The time lag is estimated as the transit time of the acoustic wave between the above two regions. The time-averaged distribution of radiation shows a strong anisotropic nature along the rotational axis but isotropic distribution in the radial direction. A high-velocity jet with ∼0.6c along the rotational axis is intermittently found in a narrow funnel region with a collimation angle ∼15°. The shock oscillating model explains well the flaring rate and the time lag between radio and X-ray emissions for the long-term flares of Sgr A*.

Multiwavelength study of blazar 4C + 01.02 during its long-term flaring activity in 2014–2017

ABSTRACT We conducted a detailed long-term spectral and temporal study of flat spectrum radio quasar 4C + 01.02, by using the multiwavelength observations from Fermi-LAT, Swift-XRT, and Swift-UVOT. The 2-d bin γ-ray light curve in the 2014–2017 active state displays 14 peak structures with a maximum integral flux $(\rm \mathit{ E} \gt 100 \ MeV)$ of $\rm (2.5 \pm 0.2) \times 10^{-6}\ ph\ cm^{-2}\ s^{-1}$ at MJD 57579.1, which is approximately 61 times higher than the base flux of $\rm (4.1 \pm 0.3) \times 10^{-8}\ ph\ cm^{-2}\ s^{-1}$, calculated by averaging the flux points when the source was in quiescent state. The shortest γ-ray variability of 0.66 ± 0.08 d is observed for the source. The correlation study between γ-ray spectral index and flux suggests that the source deviates from the usual trend of harder when brighter feature shown by blazars. To understand the likely physical scenario responsible for the flux variation, we performed a detailed broad-band spectral analysis of the source by selecting different flux states from the multiwavelength light curve. A single zone leptonic model was able to reproduce the broad-band spectral energy distribution (SED) of each state. The parameters of the model in each flux state are determined using a χ2 fit. We observed that the synchrotron, synchrotron-self-Compton (SSC), and External-Compton (EC) processes produce the broad-band SED under varied flux states. The adjoining contribution of the seed photons from the broad-line region (BLR) and the IR torus for the EC process are required to provide adequate fits to the GeV spectrum in all the chosen states.

Rheumatoid arthritis patients initiating rituximab with low number of previous bDMARDs failures may effectively reduce rituximab dose and experience fewer serious adverse events than patients on full dose: a 5-year cohort study

BackgroundRituximab is used for the treatment of active rheumatoid arthritis. In the present study, we examined the long-term flare risk and safety of reduced doses of rituximab.Patients-methodsThis was a prospective, observational, single-center study of patients starting rituximab on standard dose (SD). Patients were switched to low dose (LD) (1 g every 6 months), based on the treating rheumatologist’s decision after having achieved sustained clinical responses, while the rest of the patients continued on standard dose (SD). During a 60-month period, we assessed (Kaplan–Meier survival analysis) the relapse rate (increase ≥ 1.2 in DAS28-ESR for ≥ 6 months) and discontinuations due to treatment failure in the low dose group, and we compared the incidence of serious adverse events (SAEs) between LD and SD groups.ResultsOut of 361 patients [females 83.4%, mean age 61.9 (10.6) years, seropositive 50.3%, median total comorbidities count 4], 81 patients (22.4%) entered LD in a median time of 24 months (95% CI 18–30 months). Seropositivity (OR 1.823), more than 2 previous bDMARDs failures (OR 0.428), and DAS28 < 4.88 at 6 months (OR 2.329) predicted the odds of entering LD (p < 0.05 for all). During 60 months of follow-up, only 7.5% of patients on LD relapsed. Patients on LD had significantly less SAEs and all-cause hospitalizations as compared to the SD group (p < 0.05 for all). Linear regression analysis showed that previous hospitalization while on bDMARDs (p < 0.0001), use of prednisolone > 5 mg/day while on rituximab (p < 0.0001), and a history of ≥ 2 previous csDMARDs (p = 0.041) predicted the risk of SAEs.ConclusionIn a cohort of patients with established RA and significant comorbidities who taper rituximab after substantial initial disease activity improvement, a low rate of relapses and lower risk of SAEs compared to SD were recorded. Seropositivity, a lower number of previous bDMARDs use, and lower DAS28 at 6 months predicted the probability of entering the LD regimen.

Long-term multiband monitoring of blazar 3C 66A: Evidence of the two distinct states with different baseline flux

ABSTRACT Blazar variability can be described as flaring activities on a wide range of time-scales over a baseline flux level. It is important to detect and distinguish baseline flux changes from long-term flare variations, since the former may reflect state transitions caused by a secular change in bulk properties such as the bulk Lorentz factor or the viewing angle. We report such a transition observed in the 11 yr Fermi γ-ray light curve of the blazar 3C 66A, where the baseline flux of ∼1.8 × 10−7 ph cm−2 s−1 persisted for three years and then changed over a month time-scale to ∼0.8 × 10−7 ph cm−2 s−1 and remained in that level for the next eight years. Moreover, there is evidence for a similar shift in baseline flux in the optical band. Broad-band spectral energy distribution modelling for the two activity states reveals that the baseline flux change is consistent with an overall decrease in the Doppler factor, which in turn implies an increase in the jet inclination angle by ∼1° or a decrease in the bulk Lorentz factor by ∼25 per cent. We discuss the implication of such a variation occurring on a month time-scale.

Effects of resistivity on standing shocks in low angular momentum flows around black holes

We study two-dimensional low angular momentum flow around a black hole using the resistive magnetohydrodynamic module of PLUTO code. Simulations have been performed for the flows with parameters of specific angular momentum, specific energy and magnetic field which may be expected for the flow around Sgr A*. For flows with lower resistivity η = 10−6 and 0.01, the luminosity and shock location on the equator vary quasi-periodically. The power density spectra of luminosity variation show peak frequencies which correspond to the periods of 5 × 105, 1.4 × 105 and 5 × 104 s. These quasi-periodic oscillations (QPOs) occur due to interaction between the outer oscillating standing shock and the inner weak shocks occurring at the innermost hot blob. While for cases with higher resistivity η = 0.1 and 1.0, the high resistivity considerably suppresses the magnetic activity such as MHD turbulence and the flows tend to be steady and symmetric with respect to the equator. The steady standing shock is formed more outward compared with the hydrodynamical flow. The low angular momentum flow model with the above flow parameters and with low resistivity has a possibility to explain long-term flares of Sgr A* with frequencies ∼ one per day and ∼ 5 – 10 days in the latest observations by Chandra, Swift and XMM-Newton monitoring of Sgr A*.

Evryscope and K2 Constraints on TRAPPIST-1 Superflare Occurrence and Planetary Habitability

Abstract The nearby ultracool dwarf TRAPPIST-1 possesses several Earth-sized terrestrial planets, three of which have equilibrium temperatures that may support liquid surface water, making it a compelling target for exoplanet characterization. TRAPPIST-1 is an active star with frequent flaring, with implications for the habitability of its planets. Superflares (stellar flares whose energy exceeds 1033 erg) can completely destroy the atmospheres of a cool star’s planets, allowing ultraviolet radiation and high-energy particles to bombard their surfaces. However, ultracool dwarfs emit little ultraviolet flux when quiescent, raising the possibility of frequent flares being necessary for prebiotic chemistry that requires ultraviolet light. We combine Evryscope and Kepler observations to characterize the high-energy flare rate of TRAPPIST-1. The Evryscope is an array of 22 small telescopes imaging the entire Southern sky in g′ every two minutes. Evryscope observations, spanning 170 nights over 2 yr, complement the 80 day continuous short-cadence K2 observations by sampling TRAPPIST-1's long-term flare activity. We update TRAPPIST-1's superflare rate, finding a cumulative rate of superflares per year. We calculate the flare rate necessary to deplete ozone in the habitable-zone planets’ atmospheres, and find that TRAPPIST-1's flare rate is insufficient to deplete ozone if present on its planets. In addition, we calculate the flare rate needed to provide enough ultraviolet flux to power prebiotic chemistry. We find TRAPPIST-1's flare rate is likely insufficient to catalyze some of the Earthlike chemical pathways thought to lead to ribonucleic acid synthesis, and flux due to flares in the biologically relevant UV-B band is orders of magnitude less for any TRAPPIST-1 planet than has been experienced by Earth at any time in its history.

A possible model for the long-term flares of Sgr A*

Abstract We examine the effects of magnetic field on low angular momentum flows with standing shock around black holes in two dimensions. The magnetic field brings change in behavior and location of the shock which results in regularly or chaotically oscillating phenomena of the flow. Adopting fiducial parameters like specific angular momentum, specific energy, and magnetic field strength for the flow around Sgr A*, we find that the shock moves back and forth in the range 60–$170\, R_{\rm g}$, irregularly recurring with a time-scale of ∼ 5 d with an accompanying, more rapid, small modulation with a period of 25 hr without fading, where Rg is the Schwarzschild radius. The time-variability associated with the two different periods is attributed to the oscillating outer strong shock, together with another rapidly oscillating inner weak shock. As a consequence of the variable shock location, the luminosities vary roughly by more than a factor of 3. The time-dependent behaviors of the flow are well compatible with luminous flares with a frequency of ∼ one per day and bright flares occurring every ∼ 5–10 d in the latest observations by Chandra, Swift, and XMM-Newton monitoring of Sgr A*.

Quantitative Assessment of Aqueous Flare After Descemet Membrane Endothelial Keratoplasty for Fuchs Endothelial Dystrophy.

To assess aqueous flare as a measure of subclinical inflammation after Descemet membrane endothelial keratoplasty (DMEK) for Fuchs endothelial dystrophy. In this prospective cross-sectional and longitudinal case series at a tertiary referral center, 173 DMEK eyes of 169 patients and 19 age-matched healthy control eyes were included. Aqueous flare [photon count per millisecond (ph/ms)] was assessed by laser flare photometry at 1 day, 1 week, and 1 month after DMEK in group I (evaluation of postsurgical blood-aqueous barrier recovery; n = 25) and on average 28 (±19) months (range, 3-86 months) after DMEK in group II (evaluation of long-term inflammation; n = 148). In group I, flare levels decreased from 1 day to 1 week [25.1 (±9.1) ph/ms vs. 13.4 (±4.8) ph/ms; P = 0.003] and remained stable up to 1 month after DMEK [12.1 (±3.2) ph/ms; P = 0.387]. However, average flare at 1 month was higher than that in healthy controls (P < 0.001). The long-term flare value after DMEK (group II) was 9.6 (±4.2) ph/ms and was higher in eyes associated with allograft rejection (n = 6) versus those without rejection [16.7 (±7.8) ph/ms vs. 9.3 (±3.8) ph/ms, respectively, P < 0.001]. All eyes associated with rejection had flare values above 10 ph/ms. Aqueous flare after DMEK quickly decreased within the first postoperative month, indicating fast recovery of the blood-aqueous barrier. Long-term flare levels were higher in eyes associated with rejection, suggesting persistent subclinical inflammation. A flare level above 10 ph/ms may be used as a threshold for identifying eyes associated with or at risk of allograft rejection after DMEK.

A Multiwavelength Study of Flaring Activity in the High-energy Peaked BL Lac Object 1ES 1959+650 During 2015–2016

Abstract We present the results from a multiwavelength study of the flaring activity in the high-energy peaked BL Lac object 1ES 1959+650 during 2015 January–2016 June. The source underwent two major outbursts, during 2015 March and 2015 October, across the whole electromagnetic spectrum (EMS). We used data from Fermi-LAT and Swift-XRT/UVOT, and optical data from Mt. Abu InfraRed Observatory and Steward Observatory to look for possible correlations between the emissions at different energies and the nature of the variability during the flaring state. During the 2015 October outburst, the nightly averaged V-band brightest magnitude, 14.45(0.03), and faintest magnitude, 14.45(0.03), were recorded. Apart from long-term flares, rapid and short-term variabilities were noticed at all energies. Our study suggests that the flaring activities at all frequencies, with diverse flare durations and time lags, are correlated. The magnetic field strength is estimated to be 4 G using the synchrotron-cooling timescale (2.3 hr), and the upper limits on the sizes of both emission regions, γ-ray and optical, are estimated to be of the order of 1016 cm. The quasi-simultaneous flux enhancements in 15 GHz and VHE γ-ray emissions indicate a fresh injection of plasma into the jet, which interacts with a standing submillimeter core, resulting in co-spatial emissions across the EMS. The synchrotron peak shifts to higher frequency in the spectral energy distribution while the γ-ray spectra softens during the flaring. The shape of the inverse-Compton spectra indicates a change in the particle energy distribution pre- and post-flare.

Optical flare activity in the low-mass eclipsing binary GJ 3236

We present our observations of the low-mass eclipsing binary GJ~3236. We have analyzed a phased $R_C$ light-curve and confirmed previously determined fundamental parameters of the components. We detected evolution of the spot(s) and found that there exists a large spot near a polar region of the primary component and another spot either on the primary or the secondary component. We also observed 7 flare events and determined a flare rate of about 0.1 flares per hour. We observed two high energy, long-term flares with a complex light curve and possibly four weak short-term flaring events. A majority of the flares was detected in the $R_C$ filter, which indicate their high energy.

Long-Term Mesalamine Maintenance in Ulcerative Colitis

There are limited data about the long-term follow-up of patients with ulcerative colitis (UC) maintained on high versus low doses of mesalamine. We evaluated the best long-term average daily dose that would keep the disease in remission. Nationwide ulcerative colitis data were obtained from the Veterans Affairs health care system for the period 2001 to 2011. Those who started mesalamine maintenance during this period were included. Average daily dose and the level of adherence were assessed for the period between the first mesalamine dispense and the date of first flare defined as the first filling of 40 mg/day or more of oral prednisone or any dose of intravenous steroids. Patients with ulcerative colitis maintained on an average daily dose 2.4 to 2.8 g/day (low dose) were compared with 4.4 to 4.8 g/day (high dose). Adherence was assessed using continuous single interval medication availability indicator. We included 4452 patients with a median follow-up of 6 years. There was no significant reduction in the risk of flares when comparing high versus low average mesalamine dose among patients with high [hazard ratio = 0.96, P = 0.8)] and medium (hazard ratio = 0.74, P = 0.17) adherence. However, there was a significant reduction in the risk of flares with high dose of mesalamine among patients with low adherence (hazard ratio = 0.28, P = 0.003). Our data show that when starting a patient on mesalamine, there is no difference in the long-term flare risk between low versus high average daily dose as long as the patients have a high to moderate level of adherence.

Long-term variability of extragalactic radio sources in thePlanckEarly Release Compact Source Catalogue

Combining measurements taken using the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) from 2001 to 2008 with measurements taken using Planck from 2009 to 2010, we investigate the long-term flux density variability of extragalactic radio sources selected from the Planck Early Release Compact Source Catalogue. The single-year, single-frequency WMAP maps are used to estimate yearly-averaged flux densities of the sources in the four WMAP bands: Ka (33 GHz), Q (41 GHz), V (61 GHz), and W (94 GHz). We identify 82, 67, 32, and 15 sources respectively as variable at greater than 99% confidence level in these four bands. The amplitudes of variation are comparable between bands, and are not correlated with either the flux densities or the spectral indices of the sources. The number counts of WMAP Ka-band sources are stable from year to year despite the fluctuation caused by individual source variability. Most of our sources show strong correlation in variability between bands. Almost all the sources that show variability are blazars. We have attempted to fit two simple, four-parameter models to the time-series of 32 sources showing correlated variability at multiple frequencies - a long-term flaring model and a rotating-jet model. We find that 19 sources (60%) can be fit with the simple rotating-jet model, and ten of these also fit the simple long-term flaring model. The remaining 13 sources (40%) show more complex variability behaviour that is not consistent with either model. Extended radio galaxies in our sample show no sign of variability, as expected, with the exception of Pictor A for which we report evidence for a millimetre flare lasting between 2002 and 2010.

Variable synchrotron emission from BL Lacertae objects. II. Optical and X-ray flares in HBL source 1ES 1959+650

This paper presents the results of the optical R band and 1.5–12 keV band X-ray monitoring of the high-energy peaked BL Lacertae source 1ES 1959+650 performed during 2002–2007 with the 70 cm Meniscus Telescope of Abastumani Astrophysical Observatory (Georgia) and the All-Sky Monitor on board the Rossi X-ray Time Explorer, respectively. The observed long- and short-term outbursts are fitted with the lightcurves obtained by means of the modeling of synchrotron flares that are assumed to be the result of a propagation of the relativistic shock waves through the jet of 1ES 1959+650, pointed to the observer. Different values of the input parameters (shock velocity, particles’ spectral index, sizes of emission region, minimum and maximum Lorentz factors of the particles etc.) are used in order to fit the simulated lightcurves whose constructed by means of observational data. This investigation shows that both shock velocity and physical conditions in the jet of 1ES 1959+650 should be variable from flare to flare. The shocks are found to be mildly relativistic with the apparent speeds β=0.46–0.85, expressed in the units of c. Spectral index of the particle energy distribution varied from 2.10 to 2.17 for the long-term flares while it is higher in the case of short-term outbursts: s=2.32–2.45 that is suggested to be a result of the deceleration of shock front during its passage through the shell situated downstream the Mach disc. The average strength of a turbulent magnetic field ranged from 0.025 gauss to 0.04 gauss for different long-term flares while the values of 0.07–0.14 gauss were adopted for the different short-term outbursts. The lengths of variable jet area found to be of 0.13–0.47 pc with the transverse extents of (0.5–1.0)×1017 cm in the case of long-term flares. The same characteristics for short-term outbursts were (2.74–5.5)×1016 cm and (0.2–04)×1017 cm, respectively. We conclude that both shock velocity and properties of pre-shocked plasma were not the same in 1ES 1959+650 for the different flaring epochs.

Variable synchrotron emission from BL Lacertae objects. I. Shock-in-jet scenario

This paper presents a modeling of the variable synchrotron emission in the BL Lacertae sources (BLLs). Flux variability is assumed to be a result of the interaction between a relativistic shock wave with a magnetized jet material. Long-term flares (of months to years durations) are modeled via the propagation of a plane relativistic shock wave though the emission zone of a cylindrical form with the radius R and length H. As for short-term bursts (lasting from days to weeks), they may result from shock passage through the jet inhomogeneities such as a shell of enhanced density downstream to a Mach disc, originated due to pressure imbalance between the jet and its ambient medium. Emitting particles (electrons) gain the energies, sufficient to produce synchrotron photons at optical—X-ray frequencies, via the first-order Fermi mechanism. Observation’s frequency is the main parameter determining a rate of the increase/ decay of the emission via the characteristic decay time of emitting electrons. The magnetic field, assumed to be turbulent with an average field constant throughout the entire emission zone, is another key parameter determining the slope of a lightcurve corresponding to the flare—the higher strength the magnetic field has, the steeper the lightcurve is. The rest input parameters (shock speed, jet viewing angle, maximum/minimum energies of the electrons, particles’ density etc.), as well the strength of average magnetic field, influence the energy output from a flare.

The phase relation between sunspot numbers and soft X-ray flares

To better understand long-term flare activity, we present a statistical study on soft X-ray flares from May 1976 to May 2008. It is found that the smoothed monthly peak fluxes of C-class, M-class, and X-class flares have a very noticeable time lag of 13, 8, and 8 months in cycle 21 respectively with respect to the smoothed monthly sunspot numbers. There is no time lag between the sunspot numbers and M-class flares in cycle 22. However, there is a one-month time lag for C-class flares and a one-month time lead for X-class flares with regard to sunspot numbers in cycle 22. For cycle 23, the smoothed monthly peak fluxes of C-class, M-class, and X-class flares have a very noticeable time lag of one month, 5 months, and 21 months respectively with respect to sunspot numbers. If we take the three types of flares together, the smoothed monthly peak fluxes of soft X-ray flares have a time lag of 9 months in cycle 21, no time lag in cycle 22 and a characteristic time lag of 5 months in cycle 23 with respect to the smoothed monthly sunspot numbers. Furthermore, the correlation coefficients of the smoothed monthly peak fluxes of M-class and X-class flares and the smoothed monthly sunspot numbers are higher in cycle 22 than those in cycles 21 and 23. The correlation coefficients between the three kinds of soft X-ray flares in cycle 22 are higher than those in cycles 21 and 23. These findings may be instructive in predicting C-class, M-class, and X-class flares regarding sunspot numbers in the next cycle and the physical processes of energy storage and dissipation in the corona.

The 1–200 keV X‐Ray Spectrum of NGC 2992 and NGC 3081

The Seyfert 2 galaxies NGC 2992 and NGC 3081 have been observed by INTEGRAL and Swift. We report the results and a comparison of the spectrum above 10 keV based on INTEGRAL IBIS/ISGRI, Swift/BAT, and BeppoSAX/PDS. A spectrum can be extracted in the X-ray energy band ranging from 1 up to 200 keV. Although NGC 2992 shows a complex spectrum below 10 keV, the hard tail observed by various missions exhibits a slope of Γ = 2, independent of the flux level during the observation. No cut-off is detectable up to the detection limit around 200 keV. In addition, NGC 3081 is detected in the INTEGRAL and Swift observation and also shows an unbroken Γ = 1.8 spectrum up to 150 keV. These two Seyfert galaxies give further evidence that a high-energy cut-off in the hard X-ray spectra is often located at energies EC 100 keV. In NGC 2992 a constant spectral shape is observed over a hard X-ray luminosity variation by a factor of 11. This might indicate that the physical conditions of the emitting hot plasma are constant, while the amount of plasma varies, due to long-term flaring activity.

Long-term flaring activity of XRF 011030 observed with BeppoSAX

We present the spectral and temporal analysis of the X-ray flash XRF 011030 observed with BeppoSAX. This event is characterized by a very long X-ray bursting activity that lasts about 1500 s, one of the longest ever observed by BeppoSAX. In particular, a precursor and a late flare are present in the light curve. We connect the late X-ray flare observed at about 1300 s to the afterglow emission observed by Chandra and associate it with the onset of the afterglow emission in the framework of external shock by a long duration engine activity. We find that the late X-ray flare and the broadband afterglow data, including optical and radio measurements, are consistent either with a fireball expanding in a wind environment or with a jetted fireball in an ISM.