Long-term Disruption Research Articles

Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Child Basic Immunisation Coverage in Tanzania: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis

The COVID-19 pandemic posed significant challenges to healthcare systems globally, including Tanzania, disrupting essential health services, including child basic immunisation programmes. Using an interrupted time series (ITS) analysis, we analysed how the pandemic influenced child fundamental immunisation trends across three key tears: 2020 (partial lockdown), 2021 (introduction of COVID-19 vaccination programmes), and 2022 (post-pandemic recovery phase). The results reveal a slight decline in immunisation coverage in 2020, with no significant impacts when this year is used as an intervention point. However, a sharp decline in 2021 indicates a more substantial disruption in immunisation services, coinciding with the implementation of COVID-19 vaccination campaigns. When 2021 is considered the intervention year, the study finds significant immediate and prolonged impacts, suggesting that the combination of pandemic fatigue, the reallocation of health resources, and public fear may have exacerbated the decline in immunisation rates. By 2022, immunisation coverage showed signs of recovery. These findings highlight the complex and evolving nature of the pandemic’s impact on child immunisation services. This study highlights the need for targeted interventions to restore and maintain essential health services, particularly in global health emergencies. Recommendations include improving healthcare resource allocation during crises, strengthening public health messaging, and expanding community outreach to mitigate long-term service disruptions.

Food, Terrorism, and the Boko Haram and Al-Shabaab Insurgencies

This article explores the role of food in terrorist insurgencies, focusing on the cases of Boko Haram and Al-Shabaab. Building on the research on food weaponization and resource mobilization, it shows how food is a key dimension of insurgencies. Terrorist groups leverage it to increase compliance from the population and weaken state forces. However, despite enabling militants to achieve operational objectives, food-centered tactics can cause long-term disruptions decreasing their access to resources and their capabilities. Such dynamics have major humanitarian consequences on the ground, showing the need for more comprehensive security strategies addressing local vulnerabilities while building resilience against terrorism.

Integrating Stochastic Programming and Machine Learning for Enhanced Pre-disaster Relocation Planning

This paper proposes a novel framework that integrates stochastic programming and machine learning to optimize pre-disaster relocation strategies. Building upon existing game-theoretic and decision analysis models, this study presents a two-stage stochastic programming model coupled with predictive analytics to manage uncertainties associated with flooding risks and resident relocation behaviors. Machine learning algorithms, such as decision trees and gradient boosting, are employed to capture the variability in residents' decision-making, enhancing the precision of subsidy and policy impact forecasts. This combined approach offers governments innovative tools for implementing cost-effective, proactive relocation measures that mitigate long-term social and economic disruption. Additionally, by leveraging stochastic programming's robust handling of uncertainty and machine learning's data-driven insights, the framework ensures that relocation policies are both adaptive and equitable, addressing diverse community needs and long-term resilience planning.

The Impact of Domestic Violence and Sexual Assault on Family Dynamics and Child Development: A Comprehensive Review.

This review synthesizes current research on domestic violence and sexual assault, focusing on their short-term and long-term effects on family dynamics, particularly on the development and well-being of children and adolescents. The article employs a curated body of literature, including surveys, reviews, program evaluations, and international health reports, to elucidate the direct and collateral damage caused by such trauma within families. The review critically examines the intersecting consequences of abuse, including immediate psychological distress and long-term socio-economic and educational disruptions for affected youths. Additionally, the review examines structural impediments and cultural intricacies that shape reporting practices and access to support services. The role of civil legal aid and victim advocacy in promoting survivor safety and justice is discussed, supported by findings from service evaluation studies. The review also addresses the exacerbating effects of the Coronavirus pandemic on domestic violence rates and service provision, noting increased occurrences of domestic abuse and decreased pursuit of urgent care and support, highlighting research conducted from the pandemic's start through 2023. Emergent studies reveal a rise in domestic abuse occurrences and a decline in urgent care and support pursuit, emphasizing the need for adapted intervention strategies. The review offers evidence-based recommendations for policymakers, healthcare providers, and community organizations, stressing the necessity of persistent and collaborative efforts to address and prevent domestic violence. The ultimate goal is to advocate for a stronger international response to repair harm and prevent future occurrences, ensuring a safer environment for all family members, particularly children and adolescents.

Long-term physical and biological recovery of disturbed intertidal beach habitat from simulated oil spill cleanup in Prince William Sound, Alaska.

Following the Exxon Valdez oil spill, hydraulic techniques using combinations of high-pressure and heated water were used to mobilize weathered oil from impacted shorelines. During treatment, concerns were raised over the ecological impacts of these treatment methods. We report on a long-term study comparing grain size and infaunal communities in washed and unwashed plots at unoiled beaches treated using these methods. Despite the long-term (nine-year) disruption of grain size structure, total infaunal abundance showed no significant differences between washed and unwashed plots after only one year and species diversity metrics had recovered by the third year post-treatment. Similarly, community structure appeared to have recovered by year three. Reasons for this apparent physical/biological disconnect may be related to the native lack of fine-grained sediments in the Prince William Sound system, and inherently robust infaunal reproductive and recolonizing strategies. This work has practical implications for spill response, damage assessment, and restoration.

Functional and vascular neuroimaging in maritime pilots with long-term sleep disruption.

The mechanism underlying the possible causal association between long-term sleep disruption and Alzheimer's disease remains unclear Musiek et al. 2015. A hypothesised pathway through increased brain amyloid load was not confirmed in previous work in our cohort of maritime pilots with long-term work-related sleep disruption Thomas et al. Alzheimer's Res Ther 2020;12:101. Here, using functional MRI, T2-FLAIR, and arterial spin labeling MRI scans, we explored alternative neuroimaging biomarkers related to both sleep disruption and AD: resting-state network co-activation and between-network connectivity of the default mode network (DMN), salience network (SAL) and frontoparietal network (FPN), vascular damage and cerebral blood flow (CBF). We acquired data of 16 maritime pilots (56 ± 2.3years old) with work-related long-term sleep disruption (23 ± 4.8 working years) and 16 healthy controls (59 ± 3.3years old), with normal sleep patterns (Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index ≤ 5). Maritime pilots did not show altered co-activation in either the DMN, FPN, or SAL and no differences in between-network connectivity. We did not detect increased markers of vascular damage in maritime pilots, and additionally, maritime pilots did not show altered CBF-patterns compared to healthy controls. In summary, maritime pilots with long-term sleep disruption did not show neuroimaging markers indicative of preclinical AD compared to healthy controls. These findings do not resemble those of short-term sleep deprivation studies. This could be due to resiliency to sleep disruption or selection bias, as participants have already been exposed to and were able to deal with sleep disruption for multiple years, or to compensatory mechanisms Mentink et al. PLoS ONE. 2021;15(12):e0237622. This suggests the relationship between sleep disruption and AD is not as strong as previously implied in studies on short-term sleep deprivation, which would be beneficial for all shift workers suffering from work-related sleep disruptions.

Sibling presence during fostering ameliorates endocrine stress profile changes in a social rodent species (Octodon degus) in a sex-specific manner

During early life, disruption of the parent-offspring bond can substantially impact development of offspring physiology and behavior. In rodents, it has been well-documented that parental separation, reduction in parental care, and cross-fostering can affect development of the endocrine stress response. For social species, however, several social factors may mitigate the stress of cross-fostering, such as remaining with other known adult caregivers or siblings. In this study, we cross-fostered a social rodent species (Octodon degus) with or without their siblings at postnatal day (PND) 8 and measured their endocrine stress response immediately after fostering (PND9) and at weaning (PND28). We found that female singly-fostered offspring displayed elevated baseline cortisol levels and reduced weight gain immediately after fostering. At weaning, female singly-fostered offspring continued to display elevated baseline cortisol levels compared to non-fostered female offspring, while singly-fostered males demonstrated weaker cortisol negative feedback strength compared to male offspring that were not fostered or were fostered with their siblings. These results suggest that sibling presence may help mitigate the stress of fostering, and that future studies should further examine other social conditions that may help reduce developmental consequences of long-term parental bond disruption.

Factors Affecting the Menstrual Cycle in Adolescent Girls at SMA Negeri 1 Kluet Selatan, South Aceh Regency, Aceh Province in 2023

The menstrual cycle is a problem among teenagers. The number of women who experience abnormal menstrual cycle problems caused by many factors, one of which is nutritional status, stress, physical activity and menarche age. Abnormal cycles are generally caused by unstable hormonal levels. Abnormal menstrual cycles cause long-term disruption to the reproductive system if left untreated. This type of research is an analytical survey research with a Cross Sectional research design. The purpose of the study was to find out the factors that affect the menstrual cycle in adolescent girls at SMA N 1 Kluet Selatan. The sample in this study is a student of SMA N 1 Kluet Selatan Class X, XI and XII which was obtained through the probability sampling technique, which is sampling that provides the same opportunity for population members to be selected as sample members. The results of the study showed that there was an effect of nutritional status with a P value of 0.003 (< 0.05), stress with a P value of 0.002 (< 0.05), physical activity with a P value of 0.026 (< 0.05. Menarche age, with a P value of 0.000 (< 0.05) on the menstrual cycle in adolescent girls at SMA N 1 Kluet Selatan From the results of the research, it was found that there was an effect of nutritional status, stress, physical activity, and menarche age on the menstrual cycle in adolescent girls at SMA N1 Kluet Selatan. The suggestion in this study is that it is hoped that adolescent girls can find information about factors that can affect the menstrual cycle so that they can find out early and can overcome the occurrence of disturbances during menstruation.

Distal convoluted tubule-specific disruption of the COP9 signalosome but not its regulatory target cullin 3 causes tubular injury.

The disease familial hyperkalemic hypertension (FHHt; also known as Gordon syndrome) is caused by aberrant accumulation of with-no-lysine kinase (WNK4) activating the NaCl cotransporter (NCC) in the distal convoluted tubule (DCT) of the kidney. Mutations in cullin 3 (CUL3) cause FHHt by disrupting interaction with the deneddylase COP9 signalosome (CSN). Deletion of Cul3 or Jab1 (the catalytically active CSN subunit) along the entire nephron causes a partial FHHt phenotype with activation of the WNK4-STE20/SPS1-related proline/alanine-rich kinase (SPAK)-NCC pathway. However, progressive kidney injury likely prevents hypertension, hyperkalemia, and hyperchloremic metabolic acidosis associated with FHHt. We hypothesized that DCT-specific deletion would more closely model the disease. We used Slc12a3-Cre-ERT2 mice to delete Cul3 (DCT-Cul3-/-) or Jab1 (DCT-Jab1-/-) only in the DCT and examined the mice after short- and long-term deletion. Short-term DCT-specific knockout of both Cul3 and Jab1 mice caused elevated WNK4, pSPAKS373, and pNCCT53 abundance. However, neither model demonstrated changes in plasma K+, Cl-, or total CO2, even though no injury was present. Long-term DCT-Jab1-/- mice showed significantly lower NCC and parvalbumin abundance and a higher abundance of kidney injury molecule-1, a marker of proximal tubule injury. No injury or reduction in NCC or parvalbumin was observed in long-term DCT-Cul3-/- mice. In summary, the prevention of injury outside the DCT did not lead to a complete FHHt phenotype despite activation of the WNK4-SPAK-NCC pathway, possibly due to insufficient NCC activation. Chronically, only DCT-Jab1-/- mice developed tubule injury and atrophy of the DCT, suggesting a direct JAB1 effect or dysregulation of other cullins as mechanisms for injury.NEW & NOTEWORTHY CUL3 degrades WNK4, which prevents activation of NCC in the DCT. CSN regulation of CUL3 is impaired in the disease FHHt, causing accumulation of WNK4. Short-term DCT-specific disruption of CUL3 or the CSN in mice resulted in activation of the WNK4-SPAK-NCC pathway but not hyperkalemic metabolic acidosis found in FHHt. Tubule injury was observed only after long-term CSN disruption. The data suggest that disruption of other cullins may be the cause for the injury.

Expression of microRNA induced by postoperative delirium-like behavior is associated with long-term default mode network disruption: Sequencing and a secondary analysis of resting-state fMRI data.

Resting state functional magnetic resonance imaging (rs-fMRI) has been widely used in studying default mode network (DMN) changes in postoperative delirium (POD). Reproducibility and interpretability of the analyzing results remain insufficiently studied. Delirium-like behavior was induced by tibial fixation surgery under isoflurane anesthesia. Firstly, we evaluated delirium-like behavior and inflammatory responses in hippocampus and systemic level. Then the expressions of microRNA (miRNA) and target gene were sequenced and validated. Afterwards the functional connectivity (FC) in DMN was analyzed. Finally, results were correlated with DMN changes. POD-like behavior caused significant changes of miR-34b-5p, miR-328-5p, and miR-3505 in miRNA level and Nos1, Tubb3, and Gys1 in the gene level. The FC in left and right hippocampus (L-Hip and R-Hip) and right auditory cortex (R-AC) was found significantly changed. Significant correlations were found in FCL-Hip/R-AC and FCR-Hip/R-AC for miR-34b-5p and miR-3505, as well as Nos1 and Tubb3. For miR-328-5p, no significant correlations were found. Our study demonstrates that POD-like behavior induced significant miRNA and gene expression changes were associated with hippocampus related long-term FC disruption in DMN. The results increased reproducibility and interpretability for standardized rs-fMRI data analysis, as well as providing potential targets for postoperative delirium treatment.

Firm survivability during long-term disruptions: an adaptation-based view

PurposeThe COVID-19 pandemic showed that preestablished contingency plans and resilience practices were insufficient to cope with long-term and global disruptions. Companies thus struggled to develop capabilities that ensure their survivability during similar crises. Building on the adaptation-based view (ABV) of supply chain resilience, this study aims to offer an in-depth perspective on survivability in supply chains (SCs).Design/methodology/approachThe paper empirically tests related relationships between adaptation capabilities and practices that ensure operational continuity. Responses from 252 organisations were collected and analysed using partial least squares structural equation modelling.FindingsThe results empirically support the ABV’s theoretical propositions and assess the possibilities of intertwining, digitalisation, a circular economy and maturity for the survivability of SCs.Research limitations/implicationsThe derived insights are attractive for managers and researchers to foster supply chain survivability and contribute to the increasing efforts of middle-range theorising in logistics and supply chain management research.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is one of the first studies to define factors enhancing the survivability of SCs through the lens of the ABV.

Examining the factors that impact the severity of cyberattacks on critical infrastructures

In light of the rising threats of cyberattacks on critical infrastructures, cybersecurity has become a high priority for government agencies worldwide. In particular, the severity of cyberattacks could lead to devastating consequences for national security, economic growth, and public health and safety. While earlier studies have examined several factors related to detecting, preventing, and predicting cyberattacks on critical infrastructures, they have largely neglected to consider the severity aspect of these attacks. This study aims to bridge this research gap by examining the factors that influence the severity of cyberattacks on critical infrastructures. To achieve this, we analyze 897 reported attacks on critical infrastructures to examine the impact of incident type, ransomware, zero-day vulnerability, attacker type, conflict type, initial access vector, and the number of targeted countries on the severity of these cyberattacks. The results show that cyberattacks employing ransomware and initiated by nation-state actors have the most impact on severity. On the contrary, cyberattacks that include data theft, disruption, hijacking with or without misuse, involve multiple types of conflict, and target the energy and finance sectors have the least impact on the severity of attacks. To gain further insight into these results, we perform sub-analyses on the metrics that makeup severity. Findings show that cyberattacks on the health sector are more vulnerable to data theft of sensitive information compared to other sectors. Also, nation-state-led attacks are more likely to involve data theft of sensitive information and long-term disruptions. Finally, as years progress, the results generally indicate a decreasing likelihood of attacks involving data theft of sensitive information and hijacking with misuse.

Setting up a new radiation therapy centre in Malawi: Opportunities and challenges

Radiotherapy (RT) is one of the three pillars of cancer treatment (with surgery and systemic therapies) and has proven to be a cost–effective modality for curative and palliative treatment. In low and middle-income countries, access to RT treatment is limited posing many challenges to patients and caregivers. Many patients living in low and middle-income countries (LMICs) such as Malawi spend enormous sums of money to be treated abroad, through Government schemes, or, more commonly, go without treatment. This paper reviews the progress of the Malawi Government in establishing the first dedicated cancer treatment center with RT facilities at Kamuzu Central Hospital in Lilongwe. Malawi is expected to have a fully functional dedicated RT centre towards the end of 2024 equipped with one cobalt machine, two linear accelerators (LINAC), and a high dose rate (HDR) Brachytherapy unit. More cancer patients will have access to RT services locally, resulting in the Government saving on the foreign currency required to treat patients out of the country. While there has been great progress towards establishment of services in Malawi, careful and strategic planning is needed for the sustainability of required resources to avoid long-term disruption of treatments.

PROJECT RISKS DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC AND THEIR EFFECTS ON DELAYS AND COST OVERRUNS

The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted project implementation costs and caused delays across numerous industries. Various analysis found in the literature show that the predominant cause of project delays and higher costs have been people, material, and equipment movement restrictions, supply chain disruptions, and social distancing policies. The COVID-19 pandemic has seriously disrupted international supply chains in a variety of sectors. Many variables, including travel restrictions, labor shortages, lockdown procedures, and a spike in demand for medical supplies and equipment, were the main causes of the interruptions. To confirm this assumption, a comprehensive study was conducted to understand whether these factors affected project delays and cost overruns. A multiple regression analysis was conducted to analyze the significance and the volume of the effects of specific factors on project delays and rising project costs. Contrary to the previous understanding, we found that only a few factors or project risks associated with the COVID-19 pandemic have an effect. The findings show that only those risk factors related to material supply and epidemic prevention methods that the company was requested to implement inside the company had the influence on the delays in project implementation, while other risk factors had no major effects on a project schedule. Additionally, it has been found that only risks associated with rising costs of material supply affected the rising costs of projects during the COVID-19 pandemic, while other project risk factors had no influence. These findings can be valuable for developing risk mitigation strategies that will enable a smooth implementation of projects during similar events and long-term disruptions.

Range-Wide Assessment of Recent Longleaf Pine (Pinus palustris Mill.) Area and Regeneration Trends

Longleaf pine (Pinus palustris Mill.) is a conifer historically associated with an open forest ecosystem that extended across much of the coastal plain of the Southeastern United States. It now exists mainly in isolated fragments following the conversion of forests and the long-term disruption of the low-intensity fire regime upon which the species depends. Recent decades have seen efforts to restore longleaf pine forests by government and private landowners. This was reflected in analyses of national forest inventory data during two time periods, ca. 2009–2015 and 2016–2021, that showed increases in the estimated number of longleaf pine trees, the area of the longleaf pine forest type, and the number and area of planted longleaf pine, along with growth in mean plot-level longleaf pine carbon and importance value. At the same time, we found a decrease in the overall forest area containing longleaf pine, manifested across a variety of other forest types. These results point to a dynamic through which forests dominated by longleaf pine are becoming more widespread via restoration, while forests in which the species is a less important component are transitioning to other forest types or land uses. We also detected a decrease over time in the estimated number of longleaf seedlings across most states and forest types and a decline in naturally regenerated longleaf pine. To further assess regeneration trends in longleaf pine, we calculated the estimated proportion of small trees (seedlings and saplings) for the entire species and for seed zone sub-populations. We found a species-wide decrease in the proportion of small trees, from 82.1 percent to 75.1 percent. This reduction was most pronounced along the edges of the species distribution and could indicate less sustainable levels of regeneration in some areas. These results underscore the challenges of facilitating natural regeneration in this important species.

Household Food Insecurity and COVID-19 Social Safety Nets in Cavite, Philippines

The COVID-19 restrictions have caused economic losses that affected food availability and accessibility, thereby compromising people’s lifestyles and putting the already existing poor households into severe food insecurity. As such, national government agencies and local government units in the Philippines provided emergency cash assistance and food aid as safety nets during the pandemic to help vulnerable households cope with the impending economic crisis and to improve food security in the country. This cross-sectional study assesses the association of social safety net programs with household food security (i.e., food secure, consistently food insecure, and newly food insecure) in Cavite province, Philippines. Findings show that being beneficiaries of the Pantawid Pamilyang Pilipino Program and the Social Amelioration Program are associated with being consistently and newly food insecure. Furthermore, households that obtained food from the community pantry, a volunteer-led movement during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic are also associated with food insecurity. On the other hand, the households that were provided with food packs, across different socioeconomic conditions, are not significantly associated with food insecurity. The study also affirms that households most vulnerable to food crises in the context of COVID-19 are those who are consistently food insecure and were already exposed to critical food and dietary deprivations before the onset of the pandemic. There is much to be done to improve the safety net programs in the country. The study results can add information and policy recommendations toward strengthening the services for vulnerable population groups to withstand short- and long-term food system disruptions and eventually build food-resilient households and communities.

Prediction-based decomposition optimisation for multi-portfolio supply chain resilience strategies under disruption risks

ABSTRACT This paper focuses on the design of supply chain (SC) risk mitigation and recovery strategies during long-term disruptions caused by the COVID-19 outbreak, which affect both suppliers and plants. Consequently, concurrent disruptions in supply and production are observed, which vary in duration and result in time-varying reductions in supply and production capacity. To cope with long-term disruptions, a modified multi-portfolio approach that integrates simulation and predictions is proposed to develop efficient mitigation and recovery plans. This approach involves selecting primary and recovery supply and production portfolios concurrently. To achieve this objective, time-dependent mixed integer programming (MIP) models that incorporate preparedness and recovery measures are developed to optimise SC operations. A prediction-based decomposition optimisation method is proposed to solve MIP problems and coordinate supply and production portfolios under disruptions and uncertainties. Furthermore, a heuristic approach is established to provide a comprehensive solution process. Finally, computational experiments and comparative analysis are conducted on a real-life case study. The results demonstrate that the proposed modelling and optimisation methods can effectively address disruptions and improve SC resilience. In addition, the developed models and approaches have the potential to serve as decision-making tools in SC management during disruptions.

Consumer service level-oriented resilience optimisation for e-commerce supply chain considering hybrid strategies with blockchain adoption

ABSTRACT The booming development of customised e-commerce makes e-commerce supply chains experience a severe test of consumer service level (CSL). An efficient e-commerce supply chain resilience optimisation method addressing economic performance and service performance is proposed to improve customised services under disruption risks. The proposed method includes a hybrid strategy considering both a resistance strategy with blockchain (BCT) adoption and time-dependent recovery strategies simultaneously. A two-stage multi-period multi-product stochastic programming with BCT adoption is then proposed, which (1) implements BCT as the resistance strategy in the pre-disruption stage; (2) collaborates four recovery strategies in the post-disruption stage; (3) supports the e-tailer in making decisions and optimises his profit and order fulfillment time while taking product priorities into account. Using the actual data of Chinese e-commerce during the public health emergency in 2020, it is demonstrated that (1) the applicability of the model with BCT adoption in both supply chain resilience and CSL improvement; (2) the performance of the hybrid strategy in long-term disruption management; (3) the efficiency and robustness of the proposed solution approach for multi-objective high-dimensional stochastic programming problems. E-tailers can optimise decision-making under long-term disruptions by the proposed methodology in practices.

Campgrounds and climate change: An extreme weather event study for nature-based entrepreneurship

Entrepreneurship researchers have focused primarily on climate change mitigation. The physical effects of climate and weather on venture performance remain understudied. Accordingly, we introduce climatology to the entrepreneurship literature to quantitatively investigate the impacts of extreme weather events (i.e., tropical stormforced winds) on nature-based entrepreneurial performance. We operationalize our extreme weather event study at three coastal, entrepreneurial campgrounds that observed 12 tropical storm-forced events between 2007 and 2016. When controlling for institutional and other fixed effects, there were short-term but no long-term performance disruptions. Findings suggest adaptive and mitigative capacities are possible among nature-based entrepreneurial ventures experiencing extreme weather events. Thus, a key insight is the resilience of RV campgrounds to tropical-storm forced winds, the focal weather extreme.

The local economic impacts of mega nuclear accident: A synthetic control analysis of Fukushima

The economic impacts of mega accidents are complex, and accurately quantifying these impacts poses a formidable challenge. Traditional methods often fall short in capturing the extensive consequences of such infrequent disasters, which may go beyond immediate damages to include long-term economic disruptions and indirect costs. This study sheds a light on the economic aftermath of the Fukushima nuclear disaster. Utilizing the synthetic control method (SCM), our analysis reveals a significant, albeit temporary, downturn in the economic performance of the affected region. Specifically, the prefectural per capita income of Fukushima declines by up to 14.4% in the two years following the disaster. This decrease is linked to the composition of Fukushima's GDP and a reduction in labor supply. Our findings demonstrate the effectiveness of SCM as a potent tool for performing counterfactual analyses of mega accidents, offering essential insights into their economic impacts and the pathways to recovery.