Long-term Demographic Changes Research Articles

Evaluating the Impact of Long-Term Demographic Changes on Local Participation in Italian Rural Policies (2014–2020): A Spatial Autoregressive Econometric Model

This study elaborates on a typology of demographic change and tests this definition at the lowest granular level (LAU2, municipality) with official data. This typology distinguishes between fragile and resilient municipalities based on population dynamics (in terms of duration and intensity) over 1991–2021. This study’s second aim is to elaborate a spatial autoregressive econometric model to evaluate to what extent and in which direction the rate of participation of potential beneficiaries of the Rural Development Programmes (RDPs) of 2014–2020 is affected by demographic change and other explanatory variables. Regression models compare the results of the OLS (aspatial) and spatial autoregressive models (SAR) of four types of participation rates (all RDP schemes; all LEADER schemes; sectoral schemes of RDP and LEADER; non-sectoral schemes of RDPs and LEADER). This comparison makes it possible to understand the differences between centralised and decentralised management and between sectoral and broader rural-targeted schemes. The results of the models appear attractive in interpreting the role of RDP instruments in different regions and local areas. First, the rate of participation is strongly dependent on macro-regional differences. Regarding the demographic factors at the local level, this study highlights that demographic fragility does not necessarily hamper the use of RDP measures. Conversely, the participation rate in RDP policy schemes seems particularly significant in very fragile areas, whereas significance has yet to be proved in other demographic typologies. This result holds particularly true for the policy uptake of non-sectoral schemes. Furthermore, LEADER decentralised interventions fit the fragile areas more than resilient and vital ones due to the territorially targeted approach followed by the Local Action Groups.

Genetic diversity and shallow genetic differentiation of the endangered scaly-sided merganser Mergus squamatus.

Examining patterns of genetic diversity are crucial for conservation planning on endangered species, while inferring the underlying process of recent anthropogenic habitat modifications in the context potential long-term demographic changes remains challenging. The globally endangered scaly-sided merganser (SSME), Mergus squamatus, is endemic to a narrow range in Northeast Asia, and its population has recently been contracted into two main breeding areas. Although low genetic diversity has been suggested in the Russian population, the genetic status and demographic history of these individuals have not been fully elucidated. We therefore examined the genetic diversity and structure of the breeding populations of the SSME and investigated the relative importance of historical and recent demographic changes to the present-day pattern of genetic diversity. Using 10 nuclear microsatellite (SSR) markers and mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) control region sequences, we found limited female-inherited genetic diversity and a high level of nuclear genetic diversity. In addition, analysis of both markers consistently revealed significant but weak divergence between the breeding populations. Inconsistent demographic history parameters calculated from mtDNA and bottleneck analysis results based on SSR suggested a stable historical effective population size. By applying approximate Bayesian computation, it was estimated that populations started to genetically diverge from each other due to recent fragmentation events caused by anthropogenic effects rather than isolation during Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and post-LGM recolonization. These results suggest that limited historical population size and shallow evolutionary history may be potential factors contributing to the contemporary genetic diversity pattern of breeding SSME populations. Conservation efforts should focus on protecting the current breeding habitats from further destruction, with priority given to both the Russian and Chinese population, as well as restoring the connected suitable breeding grounds.

Identification of shrinking cities in Poland using a multi-criterion indicator

Urban shrinkage, characterised by long-term demographic, socio-economic and spatial changes, has been studied extensively, including via research into causes, typologies, and planning responses. However, while understanding and measuring urban shrinkage processes is crucial if policymakers are to respond adequately to cities’ challenges, multi-criterion studies on shrinkage trajectories are still required for the spatiotemporal complexity to be captured correctly. This study reviews methods by which urban shrinkage is studied and concludes with a selection of multi-criterion methods that offer more in-depth insight than population-based methods. Finally, a multicriteria analysis, adapted from Milbert (2015), is applied to measure urban shrinkage in Poland in the years 2006 to 2021. This incorporates six variables with a view to shrinking and growing cities being assessed and assigned to one of five categories. The research provides insights into Poland’s most recent urban shrinkage processes. Results show that, over the analysed period, urban shrinkage was a phenomenon that increased and intensified in Poland, affected a growing number of urban centres of medium size, and was to be noted on the peripheries of metropolitan areas. Such research outcomes contribute to a better understanding of urban shrinkage in Poland, provide a basis for further research, and inform policymakers as they seek to formulate more-targeted strategies to address the specific challenges that urban shrinkage raises.

THE MAIN PROBLEM OF POPULATION AGING IN THE REPUBLIC OF ARTSAKH DURING THE YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE

Population aging is visible worldwide. It is a systemic phenomenon that touches all spheres of life at the level of the individual, the household and the entire society. Observations show that the process of demographic aging is a consequence of long-term demographic changes, changes in birth rates, deaths and their ratios, acceleration of labor migration. The purpose of the article is to evaluate and analyze the population aging process in the Republic of Artsakh in 2010-2022. In order to achieve that goal, we have asked to study the trend of demographic indicators, especially those related to aging, to identify the factors affecting it, to make a comparison with the relevant indicators of other countries. Statistical analytical methods were used. The rate of demographic aging in the USA (the weight of people aged 65 and older in the total population) in 2022. 2010 compared to, on average, it decreased annually by 0.04-% point and in 2022 made 11.9%, and according to the Rosette scale by 0.01% point, making 16.3%. During the 30 years of independence, due to the insufficient birth rate and migration (in some years it had a negative balance), there was no significant increase in the population of the Republic of Azerbaijan. Citizens of reproductive working age (age group 20-49) made up the main part of emigrants, which significantly affected not only demographic aging, but also changes in the sex-age structure of the population and a decrease in the birth rate.

The impact of housing design and quality on wellbeing: lived experiences of the home during COVID-19 in London

ABSTRACT COVID-19 has heightened awareness of how housing design and quality can dramatically impact the mental and physical wellbeing of an individual. Adding to existing housing problems, long-term demographic changes, and failures in building maintenance as well as safety and housing design standards, the pandemic has exacerbated existing housing inequalities. Through 50 in-depth interviews with London residents conducted in early 2021, the paper studies how experiences of changing home uses and perception of the quality and design of domestic space affected the wellbeing of participants during the pandemic. The paper focuses on design-related housing aspects such as environmental comfort, the agency to make changes to a home, notions of privacy and security, and a lack of space. This reveals how changes in domestic use and future housing preferences might have a long-term impact on dwelling design. The wide-ranging lived experiences and subjective perceptions of the home call for a more inclusive approach to housing and social policies that consider the value of architectural design. Based on the findings and discussion, the paper concludes with housing design policy recommendations that should be taken into account to improve future housing quality and design.

Long-term demographic changes of deer mouse (Peromyscus maniculatus) populations in a forest landscape with cumulative clearcutting

The deer mouse (Peromyscus maniculatus) is a generalist species and is widespread among the various early-successional forest habitats associated with post-clearcut landscapes. Deer mice seem to occupy clearcuts more than undisturbed late successional forest, at least for abundance, because harvested sites apparently act as dispersal sinks. We investigated the responses in abundance of P. maniculatus populations to cumulative clearcutting of coniferous forests on a landscape that had four independent clearcutting events (Periods 1 to 4) over a 42-year interval from 1979 to 2020 in south-central British Columbia, Canada. We tested three hypotheses (H) that populations of P. maniculatus would (H1) increase in abundance owing to the ongoing availability of early seral post-harvest habitats associated with cumulative clearcutting; (H2) have higher mean abundance, reproduction, and survival in clearcut than forest sites owing to greater food resources; and (H3) occupy clearcut sites as dispersal sinks thereby having lower adult body mass (a proximate measure of condition) and reduced reproductive output than in forest sites.Mean annual abundance of P. maniculatus was highest and similar in Periods 2 and 4 with comparable numbers in Period 1 for the first four post-harvest years of these clearcutting periods. This pattern did not support H1 that P. maniculatus would increase in abundance associated with cumulative clearcutting over the 42-year period. Deer mouse populations reached relatively high densities (range of 23 to 53 per ha) on clearcut sites and these irruptions were likely related to supply of lodgepole pine seed from cones in logging debris. Overall mean abundance of P. maniculatus ranged from 1.4 to 3.6 times higher in clearcut than forest sites, thereby supporting the abundance part of H2. Recruitment, number of successful pregnancies, and breeding young-of-the-year deer mice were all higher in clearcut than forest sites, thereby supporting the reproduction part of H2. However, equivocal measures of overall survival did not support this hypothesis. The general similarity in mean body mass of adult mice between treatment sites and higher reproductive output in clearcut than forest sites did not support H3 that clearcut sites would act as dispersal sinks for deer mice. This study is the first to measure the long-term demographic responses of deer mice to cumulative clearcutting over a coniferous forest landscape. Clearcut sites may provide high-quality habitat for deer mice in this forest landscape.

Incidence of Large Wood Borers in the Conservation of dehesa Islands Forests in Southwestern Spain

The dehesa is a traditional agrosilvopastoral ecosystem characterized by a savanna-like structure. It has been in decline since the middle of the last century, in particular in agricultural environments where it has been relegated to isolated forests. This paper presents a study into the reduction over the past 50 years. One of the main causes of this decline has been identified as xylophagous insects, specifically the wood borer Cerambyx welensii Kuster (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae). Based on estimations in both the population size, using Jolly Seber models, and the level of tree injury, using a single-index model, the study investigates the role the insect has played in the decline of the dehesa. Surface area loss was found to be greater than 50%, while canopy cover has diminished linearly over the period studied, with the risk of disappearance of the woodland increasing in the same magnitude as borer population density. The highest wood borer population densities observed corresponded to stands with an average canopy cover loss of 1.68% a year, indicating a risk of completely losing the forest cover in the short term (10–30 years). The proposed tree injury index was successful in categorizing the size of the insect population, and seems to be a useful indicator for describing the relationship between the two variables. According to this indicator, woodlands with more than 10% of trees with severe or very severe injuries are at risk. Follow-up work should be undertaken to investigate long-term demographic changes in wood borer populations, and management practices should be developed to reduce the population size, minimize forest loss and preserve these relict oak trees in unconnected landscapes.

Estimating China’s Population over 21st Century: Spatially Explicit Scenarios Consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)

Accurate and reliable subnational and spatially explicit population projections under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) for China will be helpful for understanding long-term demographic changes and formulating targeted mitigation and adaptation policies under climate change. In this study, national and provincial populations for China by age, sex, and education level to 2100 under five SSPs were estimated using the population-development-environment model. These parameters include fertility, mortality, migration, and education and consider the most recent birth policy in China. To quantify these projections spatially, the gridded population was provided at 1 km × 1 km by spatial downscaling. Results show the national population is highest under SSP3, with 1.71 × 109 people in 2100. Guangdong, Henan, and Shandong are the most populous in SSP1, 2, 4, 5, while Guangxi is the most populous province in SSP3, reaching 1.54 × 108 people. The differences in education level among scenarios are obvious, especially in 2100 where education level for SSP1 and SSP5 is the highest. The spatial distribution of population varies across the country, with the majority of the population concentrated in southern and eastern China, especially in the coastal regions. Our results under different SSPs could provide a reference to project disaster risks, formulate relevant policies and guide sustainable development from a long-term perspective.

The Fuxi Taihao Mausoleum: sustaining cultural tradition

ABSTRACT This paper presents a study of visitors to the Fuxi Taihao Mausoleum and provides two sets of results derived from mixed methods research. The first is a description of motives and behaviours derived from observation and interviews with visitors. The second set reports statistical data derived from questionnaires completed by 553 informants pertaining to motives for visiting the site and perceived cultural importance. The paper covers practices relating to the belief systems associated with Fuxi and Nuwa, constructed, objective and existential authenticity, the strength of traditional Chinese cultural practices, but also the role of good site management. The study identifies the types of visitors and their understanding of authenticity. In addition, it notes that observation of faith-based activities and management care reinforce a sense of site ‘authenticity’. Finally, it is suggested that longitudinal study is required to assess the impacts of long-term demographic and social change on faith-based tourist attractions and uses a directed acyclic graph to suggest future research questions.

The Role of Substitute Industries for Revitalizing Shrinking Cities

In past decades, many cities and regions have underwent structural transformations—e.g., in old industrialized “rust belts” or in peripheral rural areas. Many of these shrinking cities have to face the challenges of long-term demographic and economic changes. While shrinkage is often related to post-industrial transformations in the USA, in other countries, such as Germany, for example, the causes are related to changing demographics with declining birth rates and the effects of the German reunification. Many cities have tried to combat shrinkage and have thus developed a variety of policies and strategies such as the establishing of substitute industries. To assess the sustainability of this approach, this paper investigates the cities of Cleveland, USA and Bochum, Germany in a comparative analysis following the most similar/most different research design. The paper shows that substitute industries might lead to new development paths for shrinking cities; however, whether these paths stimulate sustainable development is dependent on those who are benefiting from these developments and to what extent.

A brief history of demographic transition and population thought

”Demographic transition” is one of the most important concepts in understanding the modern history of population and health. The modernization of nations progressed as a drastic demographic shift occurred from a regime of high fertility and high mortality to that of low fertility and low mortality. Considering the long-term demographic changes, the paper presents a brief history of population thought from Malthusian theory at the end of the 18th century to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of the early 21st century. Malthus’ theory of population implied that living things have a prolific nature, although this idea was considered dangerous and not clearly stated at the time. It promoted the emergence of birth control movements and enabled Darwin to complete and publish his theory of evolution. Malthus, who pioneered the modern era, emphasized the contrast between population growth and food shortage. We, standing at the demise of the modern era, face new challenges, such as global resource constraints and environmental concerns, population aging to an unprecedented degree, coexistence of populations with still high and very low fertility, and new tides of international migration. The SDGs do not explicitly mention population trends, but the majority of the goals are substantially related to population and health.

Understanding the role of natural hazards in internal labour mobility in Australia

Australia is among the countries most exposed to natural hazards, particularly wildfire, cyclones, floods and heat waves. Natural disasters are expected to increase in frequency and severity as climate changes. For some people, the increase in risk from these disasters is a reason to move away from certain places or avoid others. Contemporary migration literature has largely ignored environmental factors for mobility, concentrating instead on economic and amenity or lifestyle factors. In this study we fill this gap by exploring the extent to which people in Australia consider natural hazards in their location choices and mobility decisions. Results from a survey using best-worst scaling showed that non-environmental factors prevail, with safety from crime the factor people consider most important when moving somewhere for a new job, followed by living costs and provision of adequate health care. Environmental factors were secondary in people's migration decisions but more important than attractive scenery and educational opportunities. The reasons people in Australia are not particularly dissuaded from moving to places where the prospects of good employment opportunities are high even though they risk the effects of natural disasters, might be a belief in their ability to cope with the disasters should they occur (self-efficacy). Among the environmental factors, high wildfire risk was most important in people's migration decisions, even though the survey was conducted before the devastating wildfires in 2019/20 which were unprecedented in their extent and severity. Wildfires might since have become more important in people's migration decisions, leading to long-term demographic change if people start avoiding high fire risk regions.

The demographic determinants of development in the Lower Silesia region by the year 2050

The provision of the conditions for continued socio-economic development is one of the fundamental objectives for regions. In an age of intensive changes in the global economy, demographic determinants seem to play a heightened role, as the quality and supply of human resources in regions largely determine their capabilities and paths of development. This paper aims to provide a forecast of the long-term demographic changes expected to arise in the Lower Silesia region of Poland, along with their projected effects upon the development potential of the region as a whole. This study was prepared on the basis of publicly available statistical and prognostic data for the period between 2010 and 2050. For research purposes, the region of Lower Silesia was assumed to correspond with the administrative area of the Lower Silesia voivodeship. The study employs the following research methods: literature studies, simple statistical methods, and ratiocination from statistical data

Shrinking cities: Implications for planning cultures?

Various institutional and cultural settings have shaped spatial planning systems with comparable features; however, such systems have been adapted to specific cultural, normative and spatial conditions. In line with the growing demand for international knowledge exchange in urban and regional planning, planning cultures have recently come into sharper focus. Moreover, it has become widely acknowledged that many cities in Europe and the USA have to deal with challenges posed by long-term demographic and economic changes. This also holds true for Japan. The objective of the research presented here is to comparatively investigate changes in planning cultures in view of shrinking cities in the USA, Germany and Japan. The findings will allow us to detect interdependencies between changes in planning cultures and societal changes in the wake of shrinkage, and finally to derive hypotheses for both the future-oriented development of shrinking cities, and the development of planning cultures based on the comparison of cultural settings. In this respect the paper concludes with the hypothesis that there might be planning cultures that are not framed by geographic entities (nations, regions, cities), but rather by topics along shrinking cities. This could offer insight into a new research sphere of ‘topical planning cultures’. While lasting effects and successes of policies and strategies applied in shrinking cities remain to be seen, their influence on a broader knowledge exchange, contextualisation and innovation in the sphere of planning cultures is evident.

Predicting the Future Chinese Population using Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, the Sixth National Population Census, and a PDE Model

A precise multi-scenario prediction of future population, based on micro-scale census data and localized interpretation of global scenarios, is significant for understanding long-term demographic changes. However, the data used in previous research need to be further refined. Few studies have focused on predicting the sex ratio at birth, which is vitally important for estimating the future size and structure of the population. It is also important to interpret and set parameters for China’s future population development in line with the framework for global shared socioeconomic pathways. This paper, therefore, used the structural population data for provinces, prefectures, and counties from the Sixth National Population Census of China. It comprehensively considered the impact of China’s economic development level, specific population policies, and loss of an only child on key parameters, and localized the population change parameters for different scenarios. A population–development–environment model was used to explain the population change parameters. The population of 340 districts was refined, forecast, and aggregated to the national scale. The results show that the Chinese population is expected to first increase then decrease under the five paths from 2010 to 2050. The aging demographic structure is not reversed under any paths, and the increase or decrease in the urban and rural populations between adjacent node years is closely related to the fertility rate and urbanization speed. We suggest that measures should be taken to encourage childbearing, manage the aging population problem, and reduce the pressure on young and middle-aged people.

Population projections for U.S. counties by age, sex, and race controlled to shared socioeconomic pathway

Small area and subnational population projections are important for understanding long-term demographic changes. I provide county-level population projections by age, sex, and race in five-year intervals for the period 2020–2100 for all U.S. counties. Using historic U.S. census data in temporally rectified county boundaries and race groups for the period 1990–2015, I calculate cohort-change ratios (CCRs) and cohort-change differences (CCDs) for eighteen five-year age groups (0–85+ ), two sex groups (Male and Female), and four race groups (White NH, Black NH, Other NH, Hispanic) for all U.S counties. I then project these CCRs/CCDs using ARIMA models as inputs into Leslie matrix population projection models and control the projections to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. I validate the methods using ex-post facto evaluations using data from 1969–2000 to project 2000–2015. My results are reasonably accurate for this period. These data have numerous potential uses and can serve as inputs for addressing questions involving sub-national demographic change in the United States.

Tracing long-term demographic changes: The issue of spatial scales.

This paper deals with the analysis of long-term changes in population densities at the regional and macro-regional scale and in the density of metapopulations. The following issues concerning estimations are addressed: chronological resolution of demographic changes, estimation of the weight of values for population density in order to transform the initial values included in the sample into the values that may be compared with each other at the regional scale, calibration of the transformed values into real population densities, and the estimation of the weight of values for population density at the scales of macro-regions and for the density of metapopulations. The proposed methods are tested on demographic changes in Central Europe, Southern Scandinavia, Southeastern Europe, and the Near East. The obtained results represent major trends in demographic development, while the proposed methodology could also be applied in other wide-scale demographic analyses.

The spatial restructuring of competitive tennis in Germany

The paper explores the impact of the long-term demographic and economic changes Germany faces in competitive tennis. It is argued that demographic changes, rural restructuring, and urbanization serve to shrink the sociodemographic niche for middle- and upper-class sports in particular in rural regions. The idea is tested by analyzing data on competitive tennis teams from Hesse. The multilevel Poisson regression that was performed supports the idea that the development of competitive tennis teams is dependent on demographic and economic context factors although demographic factors dominate. Strong regional disparities are detected suggesting that competitive tennis is subject to a process of spatial restructuring. Methodological limitations and perspectives for further research are discussed.

Strategic real option and flexibility analysis for nuclear power plants considering uncertainty in electricity demand and public acceptance

Nuclear power is an important energy source especially in consideration of CO2 emissions and global warming. Deploying nuclear power plants, however, may be challenging when uncertainty in long-term electricity demand and more importantly public acceptance are considered. This is true especially for emerging economies (e.g., India, China) concerned with reducing their carbon footprint in the context of growing economic development, while accommodating a growing population and significantly changing demographics, as well as recent events that may affect the public's perception of nuclear technology. In the aftermath of the Fukushima Daiichi disaster, public acceptance has come to play a central role in continued operations and deployment of new nuclear power systems worldwide. In countries seeing important long-term demographic changes, it may be difficult to determine the future capacity needed, when and where to deploy it over time, and in the most economic manner. Existing studies on capacity deployment typically do not consider such uncertainty drivers in long-term capacity deployment analyses (e.g., +40years). To address these issues, this paper introduces a novel approach to nuclear power systems design and capacity deployment under uncertainty that exploits the idea of strategic flexibility and managerial decision rules. The approach enables dealing more pro-actively with uncertainty and helps identify the most economic deployment paths for new nuclear capacity deployment over multiple sites. One novelty of the study lies in the explicit recognition of public acceptance as an important uncertainty driver affecting economic performance, along with long-term electricity demand. Another novelty is in how the concept of flexibility is exploited to deal with uncertainty and improve expected lifecycle performance (e.g. cost). New design and deployment strategies are developed and analyzed through a multistage stochastic programming framework where decision rules are represented as non-anticipative constraints. This approach provides a new way to devise and analyze adaptation strategies in view of long-term uncertainty fluctuations that is more intuitive and readily usable by system operators than typical solutions obtained from standard real options analysis techniques, which are typically used to analyze flexibility in large-scale, irreversible investment projects. The study considers three flexibility strategies subject to uncertainty in electricity demand and public acceptance: 1) phasing (or staging) capacity deployment over time and space, 2) on-site capacity expansion, and 3) life extension. Numerical analysis shows that flexible designs perform better than rigid optimal design deployment strategies, and the most flexible design combining the above strategies outperforms both more rigid and less flexible design alternatives. It is also demonstrated that a flexible design benefits from the strategies of phasing and capacity expansion most significantly across all three strategies studied. The results provide useful insights for policy and decision-making in countries that are considering new nuclear facility deployment, in light of ongoing challenges surrounding new nuclear builds worldwide.

Skill Premiums and the Supply of Young Workers in Germany

In this paper, we study the development and underlying drivers of skill premiums in Germany between 1980 and 2008. We show that the significant increase in the medium to low skill wage premiums since the late 1980s was almost exclusively concentrated among the group of workers aged 30 or below. Using a nested CES production function framework which allows for imperfect substitutability between young and old workers, we investigate whether changes in relative labor supplies could explain these patterns. Our model predicts the observed differential evolution of skill premiums very well. The estimates imply an elasticity of substitution between young and old workers of about 8, between medium- and low-skilled workers of 4 and between high-skilled and medium/low-skilled workers of 1.6. Using a cohort level analysis based on Microcensus data, we find that long-term demographic changes in the educational attainment of the native (West-)German population – in particular of the post baby boomer cohorts born after 1965 – are responsible for the surprising decline in the relative supply of medium-skilled workers which caused wage inequality at the lower part of the distribution to increase in recent decades. We further show that the role of (low-skilled) migration is limited in explaining the long-term changes in relative labor supplies.