Understanding the role of natural hazards in internal labour mobility in Australia

Kerstin K Zander,Tom Wilson,Stephen T Garnett

doi:10.1016/j.wace.2020.100261

Kerstin K Zander, Tom Wilson + Show 1 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2020.100261

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Abstract

Australia is among the countries most exposed to natural hazards, particularly wildfire, cyclones, floods and heat waves. Natural disasters are expected to increase in frequency and severity as climate changes. For some people, the increase in risk from these disasters is a reason to move away from certain places or avoid others. Contemporary migration literature has largely ignored environmental factors for mobility, concentrating instead on economic and amenity or lifestyle factors. In this study we fill this gap by exploring the extent to which people in Australia consider natural hazards in their location choices and mobility decisions. Results from a survey using best-worst scaling showed that non-environmental factors prevail, with safety from crime the factor people consider most important when moving somewhere for a new job, followed by living costs and provision of adequate health care. Environmental factors were secondary in people's migration decisions but more important than attractive scenery and educational opportunities. The reasons people in Australia are not particularly dissuaded from moving to places where the prospects of good employment opportunities are high even though they risk the effects of natural disasters, might be a belief in their ability to cope with the disasters should they occur (self-efficacy). Among the environmental factors, high wildfire risk was most important in people's migration decisions, even though the survey was conducted before the devastating wildfires in 2019/20 which were unprecedented in their extent and severity. Wildfires might since have become more important in people's migration decisions, leading to long-term demographic change if people start avoiding high fire risk regions.

Highlights

The weather is becoming increasingly volatile and many natural disasters more frequent and severe
This bias towards better educated people and those with higher income is common for online surveys because this segment of the population is more likely to participate in them
Other studies have found that self-efficacy has a strong influence on migration decisions (Jasinskaja- Lahti and Yija€l€a, 2011; van Dalen and Henkens, 2013; Hoppe and Fujishiro, 2015) as it is consistent with people’s self-belief that they can cope with the new conditions that are inevitably encountered when moving to a new location

Summary

Introduction

The weather is becoming increasingly volatile and many natural disasters more frequent and severe. The impacts of natural disasters for individuals can be devastating, taking peoples’ lives and causing substantial social and economic damage. Major floods in Brisbane in 2011, for example, resulted in in surance payouts of AUD 2.6 billion (van den Honert and McAneney, 2011), and the damage of a cyclone hitting the northern East Coast of Australia in 2017 has been estimated at AUD 1.7 billion (Northern Star, 2018). The cost of the 2009 Victoria wildfires were estimated at AUD 4.4 billion (Teague et al, 2010) and the recent (2019/20) and most severe wildfires in Australia’s history mainly in the southeast of the country are estimated to be in the range of AUD 100 billion (Quiggin, 2020). Extreme heat compromises peoples’ well-being, lead to more accidents, and cause annual labour productivity losses equivalent to about AUD 7 billion (Zander et al, 2015)

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