Spatio-temporal characteristics of Heat stress over Nigeria using evaluated ERA5-HEAT reanalysis data

Abstract

Nigeria's growing population faces an increasing heat burden with potential health risks. The Universal Thermal Comfort Index (UTCI) links outdoor conditions and human well-being but lacks comprehensive insitu data in developing regions like Nigeria. ERA5-HEAT reanalysis offers a solution with gridded UTCI and MRT data, but validation is crucial. Thus, this study evaluates the ERA5-HEAT UTCI against data from nine Nigerian weather stations and analysed the spatio-temporal patterns of heat stress trends. Results showed that ERA5-HEAT demonstrated reasonable statistical performance and captured the temporal characteristics and patterns of UTCI across Nigeria's climatic zones. Seasonal variations show heat stress levels from "slightly cold" to "moderate" at 0600 LST and "moderate" to "very strong" at 1500 LST. Geographical consistency exists within each season over the decades, with a critical "very strong" heat stress period during March-May. Additionally, there has been an increasing spatial expansion of areas experiencing higher heat stress levels across the country. Latitudinally, stable patterns exist across decades at 0600 LST for each season. Seasons show distinct UTCI values, and at 1500 LST, more variability and category transitions occur along latitudes. Furthermore, the results indicate significant positive trends and occasional non-significant negative trends over the 40-year period. Notably, during 0600 LST, the Guinea and Sahel regions exhibit relatively higher positive trends than the Sudan region in all seasons, whereas at 1500 LST, high positive trends are prominent in DJF and MAM seasons, indicating increased heat stress during peak seasons. These positive deviations in UTCI are associated with adverse effects on human health, including increased mortality rates.