Long-term Debt Sustainability Research Articles

Fiscal Fatigue, Public Debt Structure and Sustainability: A DSGE Model for West African Economic and Monetary Union

The present paper simulates several financing schemes for scaling-up public investment while stabilizing debt in WAEMU countries experiencing fiscal fatigue. We construct a DSGE model of a small open economy that incorporates the behaviour of four types of agents: firms, households, government, and the Central Bank. The analysis assumes that when the government faces fiscal fatigue, it can turn to debt to finance the scaling-up of public investment. To ensure long-term debt sustainability, fiscal adjustments are consistently implemented through transfers and/or taxes, subject to respective caps and floors. Simulations indicate that, in the presence of natural resource revenues, scaling up public investment is feasible using concessional borrowing only or by incorporating additional external commercial or domestic borrowing while maintaining debt sustainability. Otherwise, external commercial debt appears to carry more risk.

Uganda’s Debt Sustainability: Testing The Efficacy of Debt Overhang Theory

The primary objective of this paper is to discern the impact of key economic variables, including primary balance, real interest rate, GDP growth rate, real effective exchange rate, and current account balance, on the long-term and short-term sustainability of the country's debt. Drawing on an array of econometric analyses within the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag framework, the study establishes that a fiscal surplus and sound management positively influence debt sustainability in the long run. However, it reveals that higher real interest rates pose challenges, leading to increased debt loads. While GDP growth's impact remains inconclusive, a fluctuating real effective exchange rate and the influence of the current account balance on debt dynamics emerge as crucial determinants. The study recommends a cautious fiscal approach, interest rate management, economic growth stimulation, exchange rate stability, and a focus on achieving and maintaining current account surpluses as pivotal strategies for ensuring Uganda's long-term debt sustainability. Nonetheless, the study acknowledges limitations related to sample size and endogeneity, encouraging further research to enhance generalizability and address potential omitted variables.

Determinants of Uganda’s Debt Sustainability: The Public Debt Dynamics Model in Perspective

To investigate Uganda's debt sustainability determinants. The fundamental framework for this study is the public debt dynamics model, which looks at connections between changes in public debt and important macroeconomic factors such as real GDP, primary balance, currency rate, real interest rate, and trade openness. While acknowledging the significance of the primary variables identified by Mupunga and Le Roux, our empirical analysis of a country's debt dynamics extends beyond these factors. Additional considerations include the incorporation of controls such as the production gap and the non-interest current account balance. Tailored to Uganda's economic context, our comprehensive empirical model aims to provide a nuanced understanding of the diverse determinants influencing debt dynamics in the region. The major conclusions indicate that the Primary Balance, Real Interest Rate, and Real Effective Exchange Rate all positively and significantly affect the debt ratio, suggesting that fiscal surplus, low-interest rates, and currency appreciation are favorable to debt reduction and sustainability. The paper also finds that the debt ratio is negatively and significantly influenced by the Current Account Balance, indicating that trade surplus is beneficial for debt management. The paper further finds that the debt ratio is not significantly influenced by GDP growth, suggesting that economic growth may not have a strong effect on debt dynamics in Uganda. Given the significant impact of the "Primary Balance" on the "Debt-to-GDP ratio in the long run, policymakers should prioritize maintaining a fiscal surplus and prudent fiscal management. Implementing measures to enhance revenue generation, control government expenditures, and reduce budget deficits can contribute to reducing the debt burden and ensuring long-term debt sustainability. To keep the debt-to-GDP ratio in good shape, fiscal policies and long-term restraint are crucial.

Calamities, Debt, and Growth in Developing Countries

Public debt in developing economies rose at a fast clip during 2020–2021, at least partly due to the onset of the global COVID-19 pandemic. Nobel laureate Paul Krugman opined in early 2021 that “fighting covid is like fighting a war.” This paper empirically examines trends in debt and economic growth around the onset of three types of calamities, namely natural disasters, armed conflicts, and external debt distress in developing countries. The estimations provide quantitative estimates of differences in GDP growth and debt trends in economies suffering episodes of calamities relative to the trends observed in economies not experiencing calamities. The paper finds that debt and growth evolve quite differently depending on the type of calamity. With the empirical evidence in hand, the authors argue that debt-financed reconstruction efforts after natural disasters, and thus plausibly in the aftermath of the pandemic, can help accelerate growth after such disasters with lower debt burden than in the aftermath of episodes of armed conflict without necessarily incurring the economic costs associated with episodes of debt restructuring. However, the implied upward trajectory of the debt to GDP ratio in developing economies is not trivial, even after post-disaster growth upticks, which raises concerns about long-term debt sustainability after episodes of reconstruction after natural disasters. If so, the time for orderly preemptive debt restructuring might be approaching quickly since recoveries after debt defaults tend to be more costly.

Фіскальні експансії та проблеми боргової стійкості під час пандемії

Unprecedented epidemic and economic world-wide crises in 2020-2021 and large-scaled actions of state support for economies and humanitarian areas attracted attention to the problems of developments and effects of the active fiscal policy, as well as the methods of securing a long-term debt sustainability for public finances. The purpose of this article is revealing the common global and country-specific forms of expression of the fiscal and debt expansions in the course of pandemic and economic uncertainty, identification of their potential effects as well as defining paths for making public debt manageable over the long run. To achieve this purpose, the author reviews theoretical sources, research and advisory papers of the international organizations, elaborates on international databases of economic and financial indicators, applies a generalization method, historical and logical methods, methods of comparisons, analysis and synthesis. As a result, the author identifies the major achievements and problems of active implementation of the anti-crisis fiscal policy in the global context, analyses the dynamics of debt expansions in the different country groups and emphasizes the problem of accumulation of the debt-related risks. The common and distinguished features of the fiscal policy stance and debt position in Ukraine are revealed as compared to situations in other countries. The author suggests a set of debt burden indicators and calculates their values for Ukraine, that enables to establish a debt risk profile for Ukraine’s public finances. Taking into account the global problems of fiscal rules modifications, enhancing their role for debt sustainability, as well as particularities of the fiscal policy and debt position of Ukraine’s government, the author develops the proposals, aimed at strengthening the fiscal sustainability of Ukraine with simultaneous application of the anti-crisis potential of fiscal policy.

Towards Achieving Long-Term Debt Sustainability: A Systematic Review of the Key Determinants of Personal Bankruptcy

Purpose: This systematic review aimed to assess previous research about financial and non-financial causes of personal bankruptcy among individual households. Additionally, the paper aimed to provide an insight into the key determinants of personal bankruptcy and to determine their relationship with individual characteristics. The fundamental causes of bankruptcy and its effects on financial status were also discussed. Through understanding the causes of bankruptcy, we hope to help financial institutions to minimise the number of personal bankruptcies.
 Design/methodology/approach: A comprehensive systematic search was conducted to identify articles on determinants of personal bankruptcy. The selected articles were then analysed using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) protocol.
 Findings: We identified several themes that emerged as the key determinants of personal bankruptcy filings. These determinants were demographic indicators, socioeconomic status indicators, debt indicators, financial indicators, social stigma indicators, behavioural indicators, and macroeconomic indicators.
 Research implications: The key determinants of personal bankruptcy that were identified in this systematic review are renowned factors in the personal bankruptcy literature. Therefore, these determinants should be studied extensively to examine their effects in other studies and using a different type of datasets.
 Practical implications: The findings of this study help the financial institutions to predict the likelihood of consumer default by developing an effective credit scoring model. Additionally, the development of an effective credit scoring model could serve as an early warning indicator to identify “high risk” client.
 Originality/value: Bankruptcy is a long-term process that does not occur instantly. Therefore, a longitudinal and comprehensive approach is required to understand bankruptcy. Our findings contribute to the current literature by providing a better understanding of the causes of personal bankruptcy. We recommend developing an effective credit scoring model to predict the likelihood of personal bankruptcy.

Belize’s 2016–17 Sovereign Debt Restructuring – Third Time Lucky?

This paper examines the causes, process, and outcome of Belize’s 2016–17 sovereign debt restructuring – its third episode in last 10 years. As was the case in the earlier two restructurings, in 2006–07 and in 2012–13, the 2016–17 debt restructuring was executed through collaborative engagement with creditors outside an IMF-supported program. While providing liquidity relief and partially addressing long-term debt sustainability concerns, the restructuring will need to be underpinned by ambitious fiscal consolidation and growth-enhancing structural reforms to secure durable gains and avoid future debt distress situations.

Financial crises and the attainment of the SDGs: an adjusted multidimensional poverty approach

This paper analyses the impact of financial crises on the Sustainable Development Goal of eradicating poverty. To do so, we develop an adjusted Multidimensional Poverty Framework (MPF) that includes 15 indicators that span across key poverty aspects related to income, basic needs, health, education and the environment. We then use an econometric model that allows us to examine the impact of financial crises on these indicators in 150 countries over the period 1980–2015. Our analysis produces new estimates on the impact of financial crises on poverty’s multiple social, economic and environmental aspects and equally important captures dynamic linkages between these aspects. Thus, we offer a better understanding of the potential impact of current debt dynamics on Multidimensional Poverty and demonstrate the need to move beyond the boundaries of SDG1, if we are to meet the target of eradicating poverty. Our results indicate that the current financial distress experienced by many low-income countries may reverse the progress that has been made hitherto in reducing poverty. We find that financial crises are associated with an approximately 10% increase of extreme poor in low-income countries. The impact is even stronger in some other poverty aspects. For instance, crises are associated with an average decrease of government spending in education by 17.72% in low-income countries. The dynamic linkages between most of the Multidimensional Poverty indicators, warn of a negative domino effect on a number of SDGs related to poverty, if there is a financial crisis shock. To pre-empt such a domino effect, the specific SDG target 17.4 on attaining long-term debt sustainability through coordinated policies plays a key role and requires urgent attention by the international community.

Anchor Me: The Benefits and Challenges of Fiscal Responsibility

This paper discusses the benefits and challenges of implementing a rule-based fiscal responsibility framework, using the Philippines as a case study. It estimates structural measures of the fiscal stance over the period 1980–2016 and applies a stochastic simulation model to determine the optimal set of fiscal rules. The empirical analysis indicates that discretionary fiscal policy has been procyclical, and the degree of procyclicality has increased in recent years. While the national government’s non-binding ceiling on the overall budget deficit is helpful, it does not constitute an appropriate operational target to guide fiscal policy over the economic cycle and necessarily ensure that the fiscal stance meets the government’s intertemporal budget constraint. To this end, using stochastic simulations, this paper makes the case for a well-designed fiscal responsibility law that enshrines explicit fiscal rules designed for countercyclical policy and long-term debt sustainability, and an independent fiscal council to improve accountability and transparency.

Anchor Me: The Benefits and Challenges of Fiscal Responsibility

This paper discusses the benefits and challenges of implementing a rule-based fiscal responsibility framework, using the Philippines as a case study. It estimates structural measures of the fiscal stance over the period 1980–2016 and applies a stochastic simulation model to determine the optimal set of fiscal rules. The empirical analysis indicates that discretionary fiscal policy has been procyclical, and the degree of procyclicality has increased in recent years. While the national government’s non-binding ceiling on the overall budget deficit is helpful, it does not constitute an appropriate operational target to guide fiscal policy over the economic cycle and necessarily ensure that the fiscal stance meets the government’s intertemporal budget constraint. To this end, using stochastic simulations, this paper makes the case for a well-designed fiscal responsibility law that enshrines explicit fiscal rules designed for countercyclical policy and long-term debt sustainability, and an independent fiscal council to improve accountability and transparency.

Sovereign Debt Restructurings in Grenada: Causes, Processes, Outcomes, and Lessons Learned

This paper documents the two debt restructurings that Grenada undertook in 2004-06 and 2013-15.Both restructurings emerged as a consequence of weak fiscal and debt situations, whichbecame unsustainable soon after external shocks hit the island economy. The two restructurings provided liquidity relief, with the second one involving a principal haircut. However, the first restructuring was not able to secure long-term debt sustainability. Grenada's restructuring experience shows the importance of (1) establishing appropriate debt restructuring objectives; (2) committing to policy reforms and maintaining ownership of the restructuring goals; and (3) engaging closely and having clear communications with creditors.

Belize's 2016-17 Sovereign Debt Restructuring - Third Time Lucky?

This paper examines the causes, processes, and outcomes of Belize's 2016-17 sovereign debt restructuring-its third episode in last 10 years. As was the case in the earlier two restructurings, in 2006-07 and in 2012-13, the 2016-17 debt restructuring was executed through collaborative engagement with creditors outside an IMF-supported program. While providing liquidity relief and partially addressing long-term debt sustainability concerns, the restructuring will need to be underpinned by ambitious fiscal consolidation and growth-enhancing structural reforms to secure durable gains.

Belize's 2016-17 Sovereign Debt Restructuring - Third Time Lucky?

This paper examines the causes, processes, and outcomes of Belize’s 2016–17 sovereign debt restructuring—its third episode in last 10 years. As was the case in the earlier two restructurings, in 2006–07 and in 2012–13, the 2016–17 debt restructuring was executed through collaborative engagement with creditors outside an IMF-supported program. While providing liquidity relief and partially addressing long-term debt sustainability concerns, the restructuring will need to be underpinned by ambitious fiscal consolidation and growth-enhancing structural reforms to secure durable gains.

Sovereign Debt Restructurings in Belize: Debt Sustainability and Financial Stability Aspects

This paper examines the causes, processes, and outcomes of the two Belize sovereign debt restructurings in 2006–07 and in 2012–13, which occurred outside an IMF-supported program. It finds that the motivation for the two debt restructurings differed, as the former was driven by external liquidity concerns while the latter was motivated by a substantial increase in the coupon rates and future fi scal solvency concerns. Despite differential treatment between residents and non-residents, both 2006–07 and 2012–13 debt exchanges were executed through collaborative engagement, due in part to the existence of a broad-based creditor committee and the authorities’ effective communication strategy. However, while providing temporary liquidity relief, neither of the debt restructurings properly addressed long-term debt sustainability concerns. Going forward, the success of the 2012–13 debt restructuring will still depend on the country’s ability to strengthen fiscal efforts and the public debt management framework.

Sovereign Debt Restructurings in Grenada

This paper documents the two debt restructurings that Grenada undertook in 2004–06 and 2013–15.Both restructurings emerged as a consequence of weak fiscal and debt situations, whichbecame unsustainable soon after external shocks hit the island economy. The two restructurings provided liquidity relief, with the second one involving a principal haircut. However, the first restructuring was not able to secure long-term debt sustainability. Grenada’s restructuring experience shows the importance of (1) establishing appropriate debt restructuring objectives; (2) committing to policy reforms and maintaining ownership of the restructuring goals; and (3) engaging closely and having clear communications with creditors.

Sovereign Debt Restructurings in Grenada: Causes, Processes, Outcomes, and Lessons Learned

This paper documents the two debt restructurings that Grenada undertook in 2004-06 and 2013-15.Both restructurings emerged as a consequence of weak fiscal and debt situations, whichbecame unsustainable soon after external shocks hit the island economy. The two restructurings provided liquidity relief, with the second one involving a principal haircut. However, the first restructuring was not able to secure long-term debt sustainability. Grenada's restructuring experience shows the importance of (1) establishing appropriate debt restructuring objectives; (2) committing to policy reforms and maintaining ownership of the restructuring goals; and (3) engaging closely and having clear communications with creditors.

Fiscal Policy Issues in the Aging Societies

Aging may be one of the most far-reaching processes defining the economic, fiscal, and social changes societies are likely to experience over the next 40 years. The demographic consequences of aging will have a dramatic impact on labor markets, economic growth, social structures — and government budgets. These issues have gained urgency after the second largest global recession in the past 100 years. Based on a broad comparative analysis of countries that include the EU and non-EU European and Central Asian countries, as well as several case studies and model simulations, the paper seeks to provide broad answers — tailored in part to distinct groups of countries according to their aging-fiscal profiles –– to major questions facing governments’ budgets in aging societies: What are the fiscal-aging profiles of Western European, emerging European, and Central Asian countries? In other words, how good or bad is their fiscal situation — “initial conditions” — in view of their emerging aging-related problems? What kind of public spending pressures are likely to emerge in the coming decades, and what will be their relative importance? How do countries compare in terms of the possible impacts of aging on growth and long-term debt sustainability? What can be learned from in-depth and comparative case studies of aging, fiscal sustainability, and fiscal reform? Are there good-practice examples — countries doing things right at the right time — that may offer lessons for the others? And, perhaps most important, given the need for long-term fiscal consolidation for many countries, what kind of revenue and expenditure policy agendas are likely to emerge to mitigate the effects of aging? A key policy conclusion is that countries should aim for early rather than delayed reforms dealing with long-term aging pressures. The urgency is accentuated by the debt situations and/or adverse debt and demographic dynamics in almost all countries but also by the evolving voter preferences. As societies age and voting preferences increasingly reflect the political will of the older population, it will become more difficult to enact the necessary reforms ensuring social and fiscal sustainability.

Guinea-Bissau: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation and Request for a Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Context: A series of coups d’état since independence have resulted in chronic political instability and deterred economic and social progress. Guinea-Bissau has re-initiated progress since the assumption of office of the current inclusive government in mid-2014. The economy is now recovering after a decline in 2012 and marginal growth in 2013. Inflation remains low, and socio-political stability seems achievable. The coup d’état of April 2012 stalled implementation of the three-year Extended Credit Facility (ECF)- supported program approved by the Board in May 2010, and the arrangement lapsed subsequently. The Fund’s support under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) disbursement of 2014 and the authorities’ commitment to reforms have re-ignited donor confidence. Article IV Discussions. Policy discussions focused on measures to overcome fragility; fiscal consolidation and public financial management reforms; restoring financial stability; borrowing policies and long-term debt sustainability; private sector development and structural reforms to enhance inclusive growth prospects. The Proposed Program. The authorities’ development program, anchored on the Strategic Plan for 2014–18, aims to consolidate the fiscal position through better expenditure management and enhanced revenue mobilization, deepen institutional reform, mitigate vulnerabilities, and develop the private sector to support growth and employment. The program focuses on improving the policy framework by addressing governance and security issues, strengthening budgetary transparency as well as public investment and debt management, and improving compilation of statistics. Structural benchmarks focus on these issues while QPCs include a floor on revenues collection and a ceiling on net credit to government (the anchor of the program). Request for an Extended Credit Facility Arrangement. To support their medium-term economic reform program, the authorities request a three-year arrangement under the ECF in an amount equivalent to SDR 17.04 million (120 percent of quota). Risks to the program include the still fragile political situation, which could delay implementation of reforms, adverse terms of trade developments, and weakening donor confidence, and the heightened risk of incursion of the Ebola virus from neighboring countries.

Sovereign Debt Restructurings in Belize: Achievements and Challenges Ahead

This paper examines the causes, processes, and outcomes of the two Belize sovereign debt restructurings in 2006–07 and in 2012–13 that occurred outside of an IMF-supported program. It finds that the motivation for the two debt restructurings differed, as the former was driven by external liquidity concerns while the latter was motivated by a substantial increase in the coupon rates and future fiscal solvency concerns. Despite differential treatment between residents and non-residents, both 2006–07 and 2012–13 debt exchanges were executed through collaborative engagement, due in part to the existence of a broad-based creditor committee and the authorities’ effective communication strategy. However, while providing temporary liquidity relief, neither of the debt restructurings properly addressed long-term debt sustainability concerns. Going forward, the success of the 2012–13 debt restructuring will still depend on the country’s ability to strengthen fiscal efforts and public debt management framework.

Sovereign Debt Restructurings in Belize: Achievements and Challenges Ahead

This paper examines the causes, processes, and outcomes of the two Belize sovereign debt restructurings in 2006–07 and in 2012–13 that occurred outside of an IMF-supported program. It finds that the motivation for the two debt restructurings differed, as the former was driven by external liquidity concerns while the latter was motivated by a substantial increase in the coupon rates and future fiscal solvency concerns. Despite differential treatment between residents and non-residents, both 2006–07 and 2012–13 debt exchanges were executed through collaborative engagement, due in part to the existence of a broad-based creditor committee and the authorities’ effective communication strategy. However, while providing temporary liquidity relief, neither of the debt restructurings properly addressed long-term debt sustainability concerns. Going forward, the success of the 2012–13 debt restructuring will still depend on the country’s ability to strengthen fiscal efforts and public debt management framework.