Long-term Continuous Simulation Research Articles

Response of hypoxia to future climate change is sensitive to methodological assumptions

Climate-induced changes in hypoxia are among the most serious threats facing estuaries, which are among the most productive ecosystems on Earth. Future projections of estuarine hypoxia typically involve long-term multi-decadal continuous simulations or more computationally efficient time slice and delta methods that are restricted to short historical and future periods. We make a first comparison of these three methods by applying a linked terrestrial–estuarine model to the Chesapeake Bay, a large coastal-plain estuary in the eastern United States. Results show that the time slice approach accurately captures the behavior of the continuous approach, indicating a minimal impact of model memory. However, increases in mean annual hypoxic volume by the mid-twenty-first century simulated by the delta approach (+ 19%) are approximately twice as large as the time slice and continuous experiments (+ 9% and + 11%, respectively), indicating an important impact of changes in climate variability. Our findings suggest that system memory and projected changes in climate variability, as well as simulation length and natural variability of system hypoxia, should be considered when deciding to apply the more computationally efficient delta and time slice methods.

Comprehensive space–time hydrometeorological simulations for estimating very rare floods at multiple sites in a large river basin

Abstract. Estimates for rare to very rare floods are limited by the relatively short streamflow records available. Often, pragmatic conversion factors are used to quantify such events based on extrapolated observations, or simplifying assumptions are made about extreme precipitation and resulting flood peaks. Continuous simulation (CS) is an alternative approach that better links flood estimation with physical processes and avoids assumptions about antecedent conditions. However, long-term CS has hardly been implemented to estimate rare floods (i.e. return periods considerably larger than 100 years) at multiple sites in a large river basin to date. Here we explore the feasibility and reliability of the CS approach for 19 sites in the Aare River basin in Switzerland (area: 17 700 km2) with exceedingly long simulations in a hydrometeorological model chain. The chain starts with a multi-site stochastic weather generator used to generate 30 realizations of hourly precipitation and temperature scenarios of 10 000 years each. These realizations were then run through a bucket-type hydrological model for 80 sub-catchments and finally routed downstream with a simplified representation of main river channels, major lakes and relevant floodplains in a hydrologic routing system. Comprehensive evaluation over different temporal and spatial scales showed that the main features of the meteorological and hydrological observations are well represented and that meaningful information on low-probability floods can be inferred. Although uncertainties are still considerable, the explicit consideration of important processes of flood generation and routing (snow accumulation, snowmelt, soil moisture storage, bank overflow, lake and floodplain retention) is a substantial advantage. The approach allows for comprehensively exploring possible but unobserved spatial and temporal patterns of hydrometeorological behaviour. This is of particular value in a large river basin where the complex interaction of flows from individual tributaries and lake regulations are typically not well represented in the streamflow observations. The framework is also suitable for estimating more frequent floods, as often required in engineering and hazard mapping.

Estimation of load capture ratio for evaluating LID facilities performance in Korea

Abstract Accurate performance evaluation is required for efficient design or installation of Low Impact Development (LID) facilities. However, the existing evaluation method in Korea needs to be improved since it has been derived for non-point reduction facilities. The purpose of this study is to propose a new design formula for three types of LID facilities. Through the long-term continuous simulation of EPA SWMM, the Load Capture Ratio (LCR) for LID facilities such as bio-retentions, infiltration trenches, and vegetative swales was estimated. As a result of the sensitivity analysis to verify the newly derived LCR formula, it can be seen that not only the regional rainfall characteristics but also the infiltration capacity of the native soil play an important role in the accuracy of the proposed LCR formula.

Accuracy Analysis of IMERG Satellite Rainfall Data and Its Application in Long-term Runoff Simulation

Frequent flood disasters have caused serious damage to karst areas with insufficient measured rainfall data, and the analysis of the applicability of satellite rainfall data in runoff simulation is helpful to the local water management. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to analyze the accuracy of IMERG satellite rainfall data and apply it to long-term runoff simulations in a karst area—the Xiajia River basin, China. First, R (correlation coefficient) and POD (probability of detection) are applied to analyze the accuracy of the IMERG data, and the SWAT model is used for runoff simulation. The results show that the accuracy of the original IMERG data is poor (R range from 0.412 to 0.884 and POD range from 47.33 to 100), and the simulation results are “Unsatisfactory” (NSE (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient) ranged from 0.17 to 0.32 and RSR (root mean square standard deviation ratio) ranged from 0.81 to 0.92). Therefore, the GDA correction method is used to correct the original IMERG data, and then the accuracy analysis and runoff simulation are carried out. The results show that the accuracy of the corrected IMERG data is better than that of the original data (R range from 0.886 to 0.987 and POD range from 94.08 to 100), and the simulation results of the corrected IMERG data are “Satisfactory” (NSE is over 0.55 and RSR is approximately 0.65). Therefore, the corrected data have a certain applicability in long-term continuous runoff simulations.

Coupled groundwater hydrodynamic and pollution transport modelling using Cellular Automata approach

High urbanization puts many groundwater resources at risk of quality deterioration. Analyzing all viable potential groundwater contamination scenarios for good decision making requires reliable tool. Coupling several complex models in integrated modelling can often fail to perform in reasonable time. Possible solution in that case could be usage of simplified models in order to speed up long-term continuous calculations and simulations. The paper presents the application of the Cellular Automata (CA) approach in modelling of the contaminant transport under unsteady groundwater conditions. It compares the results obtained using coupled CA models with well-known analytical solutions and standard methods used for pollution transport modelling in groundwater conditions, such as coupled MODFLOW and MT3DMS. Results obtained in this paper show that CA approach can be satisfactorily used for simulations of unsteady groundwater conditions, caused by surface-groundwater interaction, and pollution transport, especially in diffusion dominant cases, gaining the reduction of simulation time up to 10 times.

Modelling the long-term suspended sedimentological effects on stormwater pond performance in an urban catchment

The influence of long-term suspended sediment dynamics on stormwater pond performance should not be ignored, but is often neglected in pond design and performance evaluation. This paper provides systematic simulated quantification of long-term suspended sedimentological effects on stormwater pond performance. Integrated hydrological and two-dimensional hydro-morphodynamic modelling and simulations were carried over a 32-year period (1984–2015) covering 3896 rainfall events with a wide range of rainfall volumes, durations and intensities. Three event-based hypothetical rainfall scenarios: non-flood condition (5-year), sewer design condition (30-year), and river flood condition (100-year) rainfall events with 1-h duration, were also simulated for comparison between the traditional event-based approach and the novel approach presented in this study. Simulation results show that the flood peak attenuation and delay are more pronounced for small (<5-year) and medium (<30-year) flood events. The long-term continuous simulation results indicate that the pond provides positive annual trap efficiencies varying from 2% to 69% for 31 of 32 years, providing long-term water quality benefits downstream. However, an extreme rainfall event in year 2012 flush out the accumulated sedimentation as a shock load to the downstream river, leading to a negative trap efficiency of −11%. The spatially averaged sediment deposition rate, as predicted by the model, varies with a mean (SD) of 2 (1.34) cm/year over the study period, which resulted in a 24% loss in the pond’s volume over 32 years. The impact of the loss in storage on pond flood attenuation capacity are explored at regular time intervals over the study period. The results indicate that reduction in the pond’s flood attenuation capacity is relatively more pronounced for medium (30-year) and extreme (100-year) flood events than the frequent small flood (5-year) events. The variation in annual sediment loading with rainfall quantities and patterns are also explored.

Assessment of Alternative Agricultural Land Use Options for Extending the Availability of the Ogallala Aquifer in the Northern High Plains of Texas

The Ogallala Aquifer has experienced a continuous decline in water levels due to decades of irrigation pumping with minimal recharge. Corn is one of the major irrigated crops in the semi-arid Northern High Plains (NHP) of Texas. Selection of less water-intensive crops may provide opportunities for groundwater conservation. Modeling the long-term hydrologic impacts of alternative crops can be a time-saving and cost-effective alternative to field-based experiments. A newly developed management allowed depletion (MAD) irrigation scheduling algorithm for Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used in this study. The impacts of irrigated farming, dryland farming, and continuous fallow on water conservation were evaluated. Results indicated that simulated irrigation, evapotranspiration, and crop yield were representative of the measured data. Approximately 19%, 21%, and 32% reductions in annual groundwater uses were associated with irrigated soybean, sunflower, and sorghum, respectively, as compared to irrigated corn. On average, annual soil water depletion was more than 52 mm for dryland farming scenarios. In contrast, only 18 mm of soil water was lost to evaporation annually, for the long-term continuous fallow simulation. The fallow scenario also showed 31 mm of percolation for aquifer recharge.

Modeling of storm water runoff for Kitwe CBD drainage system using SWMM software

The 2007/08 rain season caused urban flash floods in urban districts of Lusaka, Central and Copperbelt Provinces. In the Copperbelt, Kitwe City town the flash flood was assumed to be caused by rapid urbanisation, faulty city drainage network and poor storm-water management. This meant that Local Authority of Kitwe City Council are required to mitigate and prevent the reoccurrence of urban flash flood, but this need assessment to determine the true cause of urban flash floods. In some countries the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) is widely used for planning, analysing and designing storm water runoff and other drainage system in urban areas. SWM is a dynamic rainfall-runoff simulation model which is used for single event or longterm (continuous) simulation of runoff quantity and quality from urban areas.This research was to model storm-water runoff for Kitwe Central Business District with the size of 0.146km², containing 115 storm-water inlets and 5 storm water outlets with SWMM software. The hydrological assessment for rainfall data and rainfall characteristics, land cover for drainage characteristics and usage of land as well as the hydraulic assessment for conveyance network elements were used.Modelling and simulation was conducted using various situations as obtained on project site and these included completely blocked, partially and open drainage system situations, whereas, perfect condition was used to assess the operation of the software. After simulation, status report indicated that urban flash flood experienced in Kitwe CBD during the 2007/08 rainfall was due to lack of drainage maintenance.Keywords: Urban flash floods, Storm Water Management Model, hydrological assessment, Hydraulic assessment, drainage maintenance and modeling/simulation

An Effective Modelling Approach to Support Probabilistic Flood Forecasting in Coastal Cities—Case Study: Can Tho, Mekong Delta, Vietnam

Probabilistic flood forecasting requires flood models that are simple and fast. Many of the modelling applications in the literature tend to be complex and slow, making them unsuitable for probabilistic applications which require thousands of individual simulations. This article focusses on the development of such a modelling approach to support probabilistic assessment of flood hazards, while accounting for forcing and system uncertainty. Here, we demonstrate the feasibility of using the open-source SWMM (Storm Water Management Model), focussing on Can Tho city, Mekong Delta, Vietnam. SWMM is a dynamic rainfall-runoff simulation model which is generally used for single event or long-term (continuous) simulation of runoff quantity and quality and its application for probabilistic riverflow modelling is atypical. In this study, a detailed SWMM model of the entire Mekong Delta was built based on an existing ISIS model containing 575 nodes and 592 links of the same study area. The detailed SWMM model was then systematically reduced by strategically removing nodes and links to eventually arrive at a level of detail that provides sufficiently accurate predictions of water levels for Can Tho for the purpose of simulating urban flooding, which is the target diagnostic of this study. After a comprehensive assessment (based on trials with the varying levels of complexity), a much reduced SWMM model comprising 37 nodes and 40 links was determined to be able to provide a sufficiently accurate result while being fast enough to support probabilistic future flood forecasting and, further, to support flood risk reduction management.

Influence of Wetlands on Black-Creek Hydraulics

AbstractThe influence of wetlands on basin hydrology and channel hydraulics has been investigated for a small Canadian basin using the MIKE 11/NAM model of the Danish Hydraulic Institute (DHI). The Black Creek basin has an area of 93.58 km2, 15.6% of which consists of wetlands. The methodology involved long-term continuous simulation of the basin with and without the wetlands. The present analysis shows that on an annual basis, wetlands reduce the total runoff by less than 1% and increase the evapotranspiration by about the same amount. Overland flow decreases 21% and base flow increases by 15% due to wetland presence. Groundwater recharge also increases by 15%. During individual runoff events, wetlands reduce runoff by about 5% and 1% in terms of peak and volume, respectively. The 1:100-year flood under current conditions would become a 1:35-year flood if wetlands were removed. Wetlands can suppress the snow-melt-generated flood peaks by about 15–20% during spring freshet and summer floods by 1–5%. Wetl...

A Middle Way to Major Storage Facility Design Using Long-Term Continuous Simulation

A Middle Way to Major Storage Facility Design Using Long-Term Continuous Simulation

Spatially coherent flood risk assessment based on long-term continuous simulation with a coupled model chain

Summary A novel approach for assessing flood risk in river catchments in a spatially consistent way is presented. The approach is based on a set of coupled models representing the complete flood risk chain, including a multisite, multivariate weather generator, a hydrological model, a coupled 1D–2D hydrodynamic model and a flood loss model. The approach is exemplarily developed for the meso-scale Mulde catchment in Germany. 10,000 years of meteorological fields at daily resolution are generated and used as input to the subsequent models, yielding 10,000 years of spatially consistent river discharge series, inundation patterns and damage values. This allows estimating flood risk directly from the simulated damage. The benefits of the presented approach are: (1) in contrast to traditional flood risk assessments, where homogenous return periods are assumed for the entire catchment, the approach delivers spatially heterogeneous patterns of precipitation, discharge, inundation and damage patterns which respect the spatial correlations of the different processes and their spatial interactions. (2) Catchment and floodplain processes are represented in a holistic way, since the complete chain of flood processes is represented by the coupled models. For instance, the effects of spatially varying antecedent catchment conditions on flood hydrographs are implicitly taken into account. (3) Flood risk is directly derived from damage yielding a more realistic representation of flood risk. Traditionally, the probability of discharge is used as proxy for the probability of damage. However, non-linearities and threshold behaviour along the flood risk chain contribute to substantial variability between damage probabilities and corresponding discharge probabilities.

Sensitivity of Modeled Precipitation to Sea Surface Temperature in Regions with Complex Topography and Coastlines: A Case Study for the Mediterranean

Abstract An analysis of the effects of SST representation on precipitation in long-term continuous simulations was carried out for the Mediterranean peninsula of Calabria, Italy, which is characterized by complex coastlines and orography. A parameterization analysis was performed to find an optimal model configuration, using a method where SST fields are directly ingested from NCEP datasets into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model lower boundary condition files. The results of the optimal configuration were used for a comparison with recorded precipitation patterns for a very wet period (from November 2008 to January 2009), adopting several interpolation options available in the WRF Preprocessing System. An additional comparison was made against a uniform variation of the original SST fields by ε = ±0.5 K. It was found that the interpolation options mainly affect near-coastline SSTs, where methods requiring fewer source data points have several advantages. Effects of SST representation on precipitation, accumulated over the whole 3-month period, are generally lower than ±2%, but a specific class of events (synoptic situations) with strong differences in precipitation patterns was identified. These events are connected to pressure systems moving from the African coast to the north and approaching the Sicilian and Calabrian coastlines. Two of these events, which occurred on 27–29 December 2008 and 9 January 2009, were analyzed in detail, highlighting that small variations of SST values induce slight shifts in the paths of the weather fronts. These slight shifts are important enough to determine whether or not wet air masses can reach the mountain ranges close to the coast, where rainfall intensity is enhanced by orographic effects.

Phosphorus removal by steel slag filters: modeling dissolution and precipitation kinetics to predict longevity.

This article presents an original numerical model suitable for longevity prediction of alkaline steel slag filters used for phosphorus removal. The model includes kinetic rates for slag dissolution, hydroxyapatite and monetite precipitation and for the transformation of monetite into hydroxyapatite. The model includes equations for slag exhaustion. Short-term batch tests using slag and continuous pH monitoring were conducted. The model parameters were calibrated on these batch tests and experimental results were correctly reproduced. The model was then transposed to long-term continuous flow simulations using the software PHREEQC. Column simulations were run to test the effect of influent P concentration, influent inorganic C concentration and void hydraulic retention time on filter longevity and P retention capacity. High influent concentration of P and inorganic C, and low hydraulic retention time of voids reduced the filter longevity. The model provided realistic P breakthrough at the column outlet. Results were comparable to previous column experiments with the same slag regarding longevity and P retention capacity. A filter design methodology based on a simple batch test and numerical simulations is proposed.

Frequency analysis of urban runoff quality in an urbanizing catchment of Shenzhen, China

Summary This paper investigates the frequency distribution of urban runoff quality indicators using a long-term continuous simulation approach and evaluates the impacts of proposed runoff control schemes on runoff quality in an urbanizing catchment in Shenzhen, China. Four different indicators are considered to provide a comprehensive assessment of the potential impacts: total runoff depth, event pollutant load, Event Mean Concentration, and peak concentration during a rainfall event. The results obtained indicate that urban runoff quantity and quality in the catchment have significant variations in rainfall events and a very high rate of non-compliance with surface water quality regulations. Three runoff control schemes with the capacity to intercept an initial runoff depth of 5 mm, 10 mm, and 15 mm are evaluated, respectively, and diminishing marginal benefits are found with increasing interception levels in terms of water quality improvement. The effects of seasonal variation in rainfall events are investigated to provide a better understanding of the performance of the runoff control schemes. The pre-flood season has higher risk of poor water quality than other seasons after runoff control. This study demonstrates that frequency analysis of urban runoff quantity and quality provides a probabilistic evaluation of pollution control measures, and thus helps frame a risk-based decision making for urban runoff quality management in an urbanizing catchment.

Retrofitting impervious urban infrastructure with green technology for rainfall-runoff restoration, indirect reuse and pollution load reduction

The built environs alter hydrology and water resource chemistry. Florida is subject to nutrient criteria and is promulgating “no-net-load-increase” criteria for runoff and constituents (nutrients and particulate matter, PM). With such criteria, green infrastructure, hydrologic restoration, indirect reuse and source control are potential design solutions. The study simulates runoff and constituent load control through urban source area re-design to provide long-term “no-net-load-increases”. A long-term continuous simulation of pre- and post-development response for an existing surface parking facility is quantified. Retrofits include a biofiltration area reactor (BAR) for hydrologic and denitrification control. A linear infiltration reactor (LIR) of cementitious permeable pavement (CPP) provides infiltration, adsorption and filtration. Pavement cleaning provided source control. Simulation of climate and source area data indicates re-design achieves “no-net-load-increases” at lower costs compared to standard construction. The retrofit system yields lower cost per nutrient load treated compared to Best Management Practices (BMPs).

Spatial sensitivities of human health risk to intercontinental and high-altitude pollution

We perform the first long-term (>1 year) continuous adjoint simulations with a global atmospheric chemistry–transport model focusing on population exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and associated risk of early death. Sensitivities relevant to intercontinental and high-altitude PM pollution are calculated with particular application to aircraft emissions. Specifically, the sensitivities of premature mortality risk in different regions to NOx, SOx, CO, VOC and primary PM2.5 emissions as a function of location are computed. We apply the resultant sensitivity matrices to aircraft emissions, finding that NOx emissions are responsible for 93% of population exposure to aircraft-attributable PM2.5. Aircraft NOx accounts for all of aircraft-attributable nitrate exposure (as expected) and 53% of aircraft-attributable sulfate exposure due to the strong “oxidative coupling” between aircraft NOx emissions and non-aviation SO2 emissions in terms of sulfate formation. Of the health risk-weighted human PM2.5 exposure attributable to aviation, 73% occurs in Asia, followed by 18% in Europe. 95% of the air quality impacts of aircraft emissions in the US are incurred outside the US. We also assess the impact of uncertainty or changes in (non-aviation) ammonia emissions on aviation-attributable PM2.5 exposure by calculating second-order sensitivities. We note the potential application of the sensitivity matrices as a rapid policy analysis tool in aviation environmental policy contexts.

Hydrologic-response simulations for the North Fork of Caspar Creek: second-growth, clear-cut, new-growth, and cumulative watershed effect scenarios

This study demonstrates that comprehensive hydrologic-response simulation can be a useful tool for studying cumulative watershed effects. The simulations reported here were conducted with the Integrated Hydrology Model (InHM). The location of the 473 ha study site is the North Fork of the Caspar Creek Experimental Watershed, near Fort Bragg, California. Existing information from a long-term monitoring programme and new soil-hydraulic property measurements made for this study were used to parameterize InHM. Long-term continuous wet-season simulations were conducted for the North Fork catchments and main stem for second-growth, clear-cut and new-growth scenarios. The simulation results show that the increases and decreases, respectively, for throughfall and potential evapotranspiration related to clear-cutting had quantifiable impacts on the simulated hydrologic response at both the catchment and watershed scales. Model performance was best for the new-growth simulation scenarios. To improve upon the simulations reported here would require additional soil-hydraulic property information from across the study area. Although principally focused on the integrated hydrologic response, the effort reported here demonstrates the potential for characterizing distributed responses with physics-based simulation. The search for a comprehensive understanding of hydrologic response will require both data-intensive discovery and concept-development simulation, from both integrated and distributed perspectives. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Copula-based interpretation of continuous rainfall–runoff simulations of a watershed in northern Iran

In the present work, the joint response of key hydrologic variables, including total precipitation depths and the corresponding simulated peak discharges, are investigated for different antecedent soil moisture conditions using the copula method. The procedure started with the calibration and validation of the soil moisture accounting (SMA) loss rate algorithm incorporated in the Hydrologic Engineering Center – hydrologic modeling system (HEC–HMS) model for the study watershed. A 1000 year long time series of hourly rainfall was then generated by the Neyman–Scott rectangular pulses (NSRP) rainfall generator, which was then transformed into the runoff rate by the HEC–HMS model. This long-term continuous hydrological simulation resulted in characterizing the response of the watershed for various input conditions such as initial soil moisture content (AMC), total rainfall depth, and rainfall duration. For each initial soil moisture class, the copula method was employed to determine the joint probability distribution of rainfall depth and peak discharge. For instance, for dry AMC condition and 1 h rainfall duration, the Joe family fitted best to the data, compared with six other one-parameter families of copulas. Results showed that the bivariate analysis of rainfall–runoff using the copula method can well characterize the watershed hydrological behavior. The derived offline curves could provide a probabilistic real-time peak discharge forecast.

Analysis and Simulation of Human Activity Impact on Streamflow in the Huaihe River Basin with a Large-Scale Hydrologic Model

Abstract A hydrologic model coupled with a land surface model is applied to simulate the hydrologic processes in the Huaihe River basin, China. Parameters of the land surface model are interpolated from global soil and vegetation datasets. The characteristics of the basin are derived from digital elevation models (DEMs) and a national geological survey atlas using newly developed algorithms. The NCEP–NCAR reanalysis dataset and observed precipitation data are used as meteorological inputs for simulating the hydrologic processes in the basin. The coupled model is first calibrated and validated by using observed streamflow over the period of 1980–87. A long-term continuous simulation is then carried out for 1980–2003, forced with observed rainfall data. Results show that the model behavior is reasonable for flood years, whereas streamflows are sometimes overestimated for dry years since the 1990s when water withdrawal increased substantially because of the growing industrial activities and the development of water projects. Observed streamflow and water withdrawal data showed that human activities have obviously affected the surface rainfall–runoff process, especially in dry years. Two methods are proposed to study the human dimension in the hydrologic cycle. One method is to reconstruct the natural streamflow series using local volumes of withdrawals. The simulated results are more consistent with the reconstructed hydrograph than the initially observed hydrograph. The other method is to integrate a designated module into the coupled model system to represent the effect of human activities. This method can significantly improve the model performance in terms of streamflow simulation.