Long-term Causal Relationship Research Articles

The relationship between economic growth, international trade and energy efficiency in European countries: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modeling approach

In order to analyze the nature of relationship among time series represented eco-nomic growth, international trade and energy efficiency of 38 European countries for the period from 1995 to 2022 we employed the ARDL model. We identified bidirectional long-term causal relationships between energy intensity and GDP growth rates, as well as between carbon dioxide emissions intensity, GDP per capi-ta and the proportion of exports in GDP. The analysis showed that over the long term, enhancing the energy intensity contributes to an increase in their rate of eco-nomic growth. However, in the short term, energy intensity have a negative impact on the GDP growth. Policymakers can use the paper's findings to design policies that balance benefits of reducing energy intensity with sustainable growth.

Measuring and Analysis the Relationship between the Internal Public Debt and the Exchange Rate in the Iraqi Economy for The Period 2004 – 2022

The scholastic view of public religion differed, and this difference was on two extremes. Alleconomic schools agreed that public debt is a monetary liquidity that was unjustly deductedfrom the income and output cycle as a result of the imbalance in the economic balance and thedeparture from the conditions of balance between aggregate demand and aggregate supply.Debt is a waste of financial resources allocated to productive accumulation. Except for theKeynesian school, which considers public debt to be an addition to aggregate demand after thedecline in the role of the private sector in investment as a result of pessimistic expectations thatwarn of signs of economic contraction. Public debt is linked to the exchange rate through theinterest rate channel, so that public debt causes competition for financial resources. Thiscompetition results in an increase in the local interest rate, which results in an increase indemand for the local currency with the aim of increasing investment, and the demand for thelocal currency raises the price of the local currency. Which means that there is an indirectrelationship between public debt and the exchange rate, but this relationship may create damagein the balance of payments in the near future. They assumed the existence of a long-term causalrelationship between internal public debt and the exchange rate. The main goal of this researchis to verify the economic relationship between the investigated variables, using thecointegration model and the error term correction vector model to prove the researchhypothesis. And the Kranger model of causality between the variables. The research reachedthe most prominent conclusion, which is that individual expectations for the internal publicdebt after each annual deficit in the state’s general budget cause a decrease in the value of thelocal currency due to the increase in demand for the dollar and the decrease in demand for thedinar, which means that there is causality in one direction. From internal public debt to theexchange rate, this is what was proven by the results of Kranger’s causality test.

Designed for safety: characteristics and trends in crime prevention through environmental design research

ABSTRACT Under the dual pressures of repeated impacts from the pandemic and global economic downturn, the deterioration trend of social security is evident. In 2021 and 2022, the United Nations consecutively emphasized the centrality of reducing and preventing recidivism, aiming to foster research and practices in crime prevention. Developing and applying crime prevention through environmental design (CPTED) theory provides a viable approach to reducing crime. Utilizing the relevant literature on environmental design for crime prevention from the Web of Science Core Collection database and employing Cite Space software, this study systematically delineates the research trajectory of crime prevention through environmental design. The research uses bibliometrics and literature analysis methods to identify research hotspots and trends in the field. Building upon these findings, the study proposes that future research in CPTED should systematically explore the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of the impact of urban built and social environments on crime. It also advocates for in-depth investigations into the long-term causal relationship between environmental features and crime under the framework of CPTED. The study emphasizes the exploration of the local applicability of CPTED theory under conditions of multiculturalism and regional differences. This helps to propose crime prevention strategies for new social issues and crime patterns, thereby providing strong support for the sustainable development of cities.

Immigration, Growth and Unemployment: Panel VAR Evidence From Ε.U. Countries

AbstractMigration is primarily propelled by economic and security considerations. As of 2021, the European Union (EU) housed 23.7 million non-EU citizens, emphasizing the crucial need to evaluate the economic ramifications of migration within the EU. This research seeks to scrutinize the impact of migration on economic development and unemployment across the 27 EU nations from 1990 to 2020, utilizing a PVAR model. The Pesaran CIPS test (2007) was employed for second-generation unit root testing, while cointegration was examined using the ARDL panel model. The ARDL panel model and error correction model were employed to assess causal relationships and their directions. Initial tests indicated that the fixed effects model was the most suitable, and there existed cross-sectional dependency and heterogeneity among EU countries. Furthermore, second-generation unit root tests indicated that the variables were integrated at order I(0) or I(1). The study’s findings demonstrate a significant positive correlation between both GDP per capita and the unemployment rate with the net migration rate to EU countries. Causal effects revealed a bidirectional long-term causal relationship between migration and unemployment, as well as a unidirectional long-term causal relationship between growth and migration, and growth and unemployment. Short-term Granger causality indicated a bidirectional causal relationship among all the variables under examination.

The relationship between electricity consumption, trade, and GDP and the effect of COVID-19: a panel ARDL approach on the Visegrad countries

The aim of the study is to explore the linkage between electricity consumption, international trade and GDP during the COVID-19 pandemic in a sample of the Visegrad Four (V4) countries. The study uses data from the period of 2010 Q1–2021 Q3. Applying the panel-pooled mean group-autoregressive distributed lag (PMG-ARDL) model, we evaluate both long-run and short-run linkages among electricity consumption, trade, GDP, and the COVID-19 pandemic. We tested both the long-run and short-run linkages among electricity consumption, trade, GDP, and a COVID-19 dummy variable for the Visegrad countries. The main contribution of this study to the literature is testing the effect of COVID-19 on electricity demand by considering trade and GDP for the Visegrad countries. Our empirical findings show that there is no long-term causal relationship among these variables for the Visegrad countries. But, on the other hand, even if the trade variable is not significant in the long run, it is significant in the short run and for the cross-section models as it concerns the policy implications stemming from this exceptional and unique situation. We learned that it is difficult to frame any viable policy implications from such an extraordinary situation when many states have not tested their ad hoc measures. The best way, we consider, would be to renew trade and improve production before the next crisis. Nonetheless, in the area of technology, this painful period brought faster digitalization in all segments and the rationing of natural resources.

Multivariate time series analysis of COVID-19 Pandemic and gold price by using Error Corrections Model

Coronavirus (COVID-19) severe acute respiratory syndrome is an infectious disease that has a direct influence on the world’s population, as is obvious from the prevalence of COVID-19. However, as the COVID-19 virus continues to proliferate, its impact is becoming more and more significant and extensive. Accordingly, the study’s goal is to use the Error Corrections Model (ECM) to examine the relationships between the COVID-19 pandemic and gold prices. An Error Corrections Model was used by the researchers in this investigation. Error Correction Models and long-term equilibrium can be found for non-stationary time series that have been cointegrated together. Two-step estimation can be used to estimate the ECM since a proportion of the imbalance from one period is adjusted in the succeeding period, the system returns to equilibrium. The calculated cointegrating relations are used to create the error correction terms, and the estimation of VAR is done by a first differencing process, and then appears in the model as an explanatory variable, with the term of error correction. The COVID-19 pandemic and gold price data were made available to the general public in a sample data. For the year 2020, it includes data on daily observations for the relevant variables. R-language results show that the COVID-19 pandemic and gold prices have been demonstrated to have a long-term causal relationship. During the most recent period of variance decomposition, 99.76 percent of the variance in covid-19 explains only 0.24 percent of the variance in gold price. This explains that there is no short-term causal relationship between covid-19 and gold price, as indicated by the Wald test results, the granger causality results have shown that the gold price is influenced not only by itself but also by the Covid-19 pandemic. Finally, there is a positive relationship between the Covid-19 pandemic and the price of gold, and this has a negative impact on human life during 2020.

이산화탄소 배출 저감을 위한 국제개발협력과 물류네트워크의 영향력 분석

Purpose: This study analyzes the causal relationships between CO2 emissions and ODA, logistics, renewable energy, economic growth, and industrialization.
 Research design, data, and methodology: From 2006 to 2019, panel data related to CO2 emissions, ODA, logistics networks, renewable energy, economic growth, and industrialization were collected from a total of 84 countries. To analyze this model, panel unit root tests and panel co-integration tests were performed to confirm the stability and long-term causal relationships in the data. Subsequently, panel FMOLS and panel DOLS were used to identify variables affecting carbon dioxide, and pairwise panel Granger causality analysis was used to analyze causality between these variables.
 Results: According to panel FMOLS and panel DOLS analysis, ODA and renewable energy reduce CO2 emissions, but economic growth increases CO2 emissions.
 Conclusions: As a result of panel FMOLS and panel DOLS analysis, economic growth was identified as a factor in increasing CO2 emissions, and international development cooperation and renewable energy were identified as factors in reducing CO2 emissions.

Is there a relationship between economic growth and natural resource commodity price volatility? Evidence from China

The volatility of commodity prices of natural resources such as oil and coal is closely related to the economic growth of a country. This study examines the volatility of economic growth and natural resource commodity prices in China during 1980–2020 and the causal relationship between them using the wavelet power spectrum and wavelet coherence in the wavelet method. The results reveal the following. (1) The wavelet power spectrum uncovers strong fluctuations in economic growth and natural resource commodity prices, both susceptible to crisis events. (2) The wavelet coherence demonstrates a significant causal relationship between economic growth and natural resource commodity price volatility. Specifically, (a) there is a notable negative correlation between economic growth and WTI crude oil prices and coal rents. (b) There is a two-way causal relationship between economic growth and WTI crude oil prices and coal rents, and a one-way causal relationship between economic growth and total natural resource rents and oil rents. Finally, using frequency-domain causality tests as a robustness check confirmed a long-term causal relationship between economic growth and natural resource commodity prices. This study clarifies the relationship between economic growth and natural resource commodity price volatility and provides a scientific basis for formulating natural resource and economic policies.

Natural resources utilization, geopolitical risk and economic performance: A novel perspective from China

This paper explores the often-overlooked impact of geopolitical risk and natural resource utilization on China's economic performance, challenging existing literature predominantly focused on the ‘resource curse’ and its implications for economic growth. Our investigation leverages time-series data from 1985 to 2021, incorporating key variables such as gross capital formation and international trade. Applying advanced Cointegration and OLS procedures, we scrutinize long-term causal relationships, overcoming common limitations associated with time-series data-related tests. Our results demonstrate a surprising inverse relationship between China's economic performance and both geopolitical risk and natural resource utilization, providing empirical evidence of a ‘resource curse’ in China. However, gross capital formation and trade exhibit a positive impact, suggesting potential avenues for economic bolstering. These robust findings offer novel insights for both scholars and policymakers, pointing towards strategies to mitigate geopolitical risks and optimize natural resource usage, thereby transforming the perceived ‘curse’ into a ‘blessing’ for China's economic future.

KRIMINALITAS DAN MAKROEKONOMI DI ASEAN : APAKAH MEMILIKI HUBUNGAN KAUSALITAS?

This study aims to determine and analyze the causal relationship between crime rates and macroconomic indicators in 5 ASEAN countries. The type of research used is quantitative and descriptive research where the data used are secondary data in the form of panel data from 2012 to 2018. The data analysis used is descriptive and inductive analysis. in the inductive analysis there are several, namely: (1) Unit Root Test (2) Cointegration Test. (3) Granger Causality Test The results of this study indicate that (1). there is no causal relationship between crime and income disparity, (2) Crime does not have a significant short-term causality relationship with poverty. Meanwhile, poverty has a significant long-term causality relationship with crime. (3) There is no causal relationship between crime and unemployment. Based on the results of this study, the authors suggest that the government combines policies of income distribution, poverty, and unemployment, such as implementing progressive taxes and expanding employment, as well as tightening state security.

지속가능한 성장을 위한 항공운송과 물류네트워크의 역할

Purpose : The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of air transport, logistics networks, economic growth, and industrialization on CO2 emissions generated in the transportation sector Research design, data and methodology : Panel data related to air transport, shipping connectivity index, GDP, and industrialization was collected from 2006 to 2014, and panel unit root tests and panel cointegration tests were conducted to confirm the stability and long-term causal relationship of the data. Subsequently variables affecting carbon dioxide were identified using panel FMOLS and panel DOLS, and the causal relationship between these variables was analyzed through panel Granger causal analysis Results : According to panel FMOLS and panel DOLS analysis, air transport and logistics networks reduce carbon dioxide, but economic growth increases carbon dioxide emissions. Conclusions : From a logistics perspective, air transport is influenced by GDP, while logistics networks are impacted by carbon dioxide emissions generated in the transportation sector. However, when considering the long-term viewpoint, it has been recognized that these factors affect industrialization and GDP

How does tourism affect the urban heat island effect? A case study of the tourism heat footprint in Macao.

This paper uses the tourism heat footprint (THF) and a structural vector autoregressive model to investigate how tourism has affected the urban heat island effect in Macao, a typical urban tourism destination. The dynamic relationships between the THF, heat island intensity (HII), and quarterly average temperature (QAT) are investigated. The impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis are used to assess if a long-term causal relationship exists between the three indicators. The results show the following. (1) The hotel industry in Macao is the source of energy consumption and heat release. (2) A Granger causality relationship exists between the THF and QAT but not between the THF and HII. (3) The interaction effect between the growth rate of the THF and QAT is manifested as shocks with the same frequency and regular periodic fluctuations. (4) The heat island effect of this tourism destination is reflected in an increase in local temperature due to the energy consumption and heat release by tourists. Based on the results, policy implications for a sustainable tourism city are provided.

The Impact of Taxes on Prices and Production in Jordan

Purpose: This study aims to demonstrate the impact of taxes on prices and production in Jordan. Theoretical framework: Study problem lies in asking the following questions Does the tax system in Jordan serve the economic aspects? Does the tax in Jordan affect the economic aspect? Is the tax in Jordan fair? Is there an impact of the tax on prices in Jordan? Is there an impact of the tax on production in Jordan? What is the effect of taxes on consumer speeding on necessary versus luxury goods? What is the impact of higher taxes on personal income of consumers? The effect of Lower taxes on the economy and disposable income? What is the alternative for governments to increase their income other than direct higher tax system? What is the effect of various government entities; such as financial, administrative, and social corruption on Jordan economy? Design/methodology/approach: Researchers used standard analysis method and vector error correction model for the period (2011-2020), and used the profit margin ratio indicator as a representative indicator for production and prices. Findings: Results showed a long-term causal relationship between prices and production; from one side and direct and indirect taxes; from the other side and that relationship between short-term deviations and long-term reliability is corrected at a rate of (3%) per year. Results showed a negative significant impact of indirect taxes on price competitiveness; in the long term which was reinforced by the variance components’ analysis and response function’s test. Results also showed an insignificant impact of direct and indirect taxes on price competitiveness; in the short term. Research, Practical & Social implications: Demonstrating the impact of taxes on prices and production in Jordan. As well as, discussing the governmental tax and income. Originality/value: The importance of study stems from research topic, since taxes have multiple effects on various areas in society which can be divided into scientific and practical importance.

Cigarette taxes, smoking, and health in the long run

Medical experts have argued forcefully that using cigarettes harms health, prompting the adoption of myriad anti-smoking policies. The association between smoking and mortality may, however, be influenced by unobserved factors, making it difficult to discern the underlying long-term causal relationship. In this study, we explore the effects of cigarette taxes experienced as a teenager, which are arguably exogenous, on adult smoking participation and mortality. A one-dollar increase in cigarette taxes experienced at ages 14–17 is associated with an 8 percent reduction in adult smoking participation and a 4 percent reduction in mortality. Mortality effects are most pronounced for heart disease and lung cancer.

Economic and Political Risk Aversions to Illicit Financial Flows: A Rethink of the Portfolio Choice Factors

The study examines the long-term causal relationship between public debt, governance quality, and illicit financial flows in sub-Saharan Africa. Annual time series data were gathered from the World Bank Governance Indicators, International Monetary Fund Economic Outlook, and Global Financial Integrity from 2005 to 2014. The approach adopted in the study is in the tradition of the portfolio choice framework of tax evasion, rooted in the investment theory of capital flight. The study finds that there is a negative and statistically significant long-run relationship between governance quality and illicit financial flows. The results also show a negative and statistically insignificant relationship between public debt and illicit financial flows. The findings suggest that weak institutional oversight, poor regulatory quality, corruption, and political crises are important determinants of illicit financial outflows in the region. It concludes that governments need to improve the transparency of financial transactions, including the beneficial ownership of corporate structures and tax information. The results also indicate the need to strengthen institutions such as customs, anti-corruption, and other law enforcement agencies to detect intentional trade misinvoicing as tax evaders exploit loopholes in tax administration peculiar to developing countries. The study is timely as resources are critically needed to rebuild economies in view of the global COVID-19 outbreak and its deleterious effects on low-income countries. The study is also relevant for policymakers as it presents pointers to the factors that proliferate illicit capital outflows from the region.

An empirical analysis of Malaysian palm oil export to world major palm oil importing countries: evidence from a panel cointegration model

The paper explores the long-term causal relationships of Malaysian palm oil exports with the real effective exchange rate of the respective importing countries, palm oil consumption, vegetable oil production, and GDP growth. The study applied panel cointegration and causality approaches based on data from 10 main palm oil importing countries between 2004 and 2018. The impacts of economic growth, the effective real exchange rate, and the production of other vegetable oils by the main palm oil importing countries on Malaysian palm oil exports were found to be negative. However, palm oil consumption by the main palm oil importers was found to be a statistically significant positive determinant of Malaysian palm oil exports. This finding indicates that consumption has a direct positive effect on the demand for exports. A panel Granger causality analysis revealed a unidirectional causality between importing countries’ production of other vegetable oils and Malaysian exports of palm oil.

Economic Policy Uncertainty and Tourism Demand of OECD Countries in Mexico

This article analyzes the effects of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on tourism demand from the top nine OECD countries in Mexico during 2010–2018. The research studies two groups of economies: developed and emerging economies. Using panel data, the results show evidence of transversal dependence in income, exchange rate, EPU, and tourism arrivals. These variables are integrated of order one. In addition, there is a long-run equilibrium relationship among these variables. The group of developed countries show evidence of a negative relationship between tourism demand and EPU, implying that a higher level of uncertainty leads to a decline in tourism demand. However, in emerging economies this relationship is positive. In addition, results suggest a positive relationship of both income and exchange rate to tourism demand, which implies that a higher level of income in the OECD countries and a depreciation of the Mexican exchange rate might generate greater tourism demand in Mexico. In terms of short- and long-term causality relationship, evidence indicates that exchange rate, income, and EPU contain important information that contribute to forecast the behavior of tourism demand in Mexico.

The role of renewable, non-renewable energy consumption, trade, economic growth, and urbanization in achieving carbon neutrality: A comparative study for South and East Asian countries.

This study uses a comparative approach for comparing the nexus of economic growth, renewable and nonrenewable energy consumption, urbanization, trade, and CO2 emissions for South and East Asian countries from 2000 to 2018. The short- and long-run connections between the variables are explored using the dynamic common correlated effects (DCCE) CS-ARDL approach, and the causal linkages are assessed using the Dumitrescu-Hurlin (DH) panel causality test. The data show that the factors have long-term relationships. The findings show that nonrenewable energy consumption and economic growth increase long-term CO2 emissions in South Asia, but trade and use of renewable energy consumption reduce CO2 emissions in the short term. Long-term causal relationships between CO2 emissions, renewable energy use, economic growth, and trade are also revealed by the South Asian causality test. In East Asia, economic growth, NREC, trade, and urbanization increased CO2 emissions in the short and long run, while REC appears to reduce CO2 emissions. According to the causality analysis, long-run bidirectional causation exists between CO2 emissions, renewable energy use, economic growth, and trade. Furthermore, policy suggestions may be made, such as using renewable energy sources to lessen CO2 emissions and improving education and corruption to forecast economic growth in the examined areas.

THE RELATIONSHIP OF GLOBAL ECONOMIC POLICY UNCERTAINTY AND CRUDE OIL PRICES: APPLICATION OF CAUSALITY IN FREQUENCY

Purpose- In this study, the effect of global economic policy uncertainty on crude oil prices is investigated. Methodology- In the study, which considers the Global Economic Policy Uncertainty (GEPU) Index as an indicator of global economic policy uncertainty and the American WTI crude oil spot and forward prices for crude oil, the data set consists of monthly data for the period January 1997-April 2022. These data were analyzed by Breitung and Candelon's (2006) frequency causality test. Findings- According to the results of Breitung and Candelon's (2006) frequency causality test, only long-term causality relationship was found from GEPU to American WTI crude oil spot and futures prices. In addition, it is seen that there is no causality relationship from American WTI crude oil spot prices to GEPU in short-term, mid-term and long-term while there is only long-term causality from American WTI crude oil future prices to GEPU. Conclusion- It is thought that economic policy uncertainty tends to affect crude oil prices due to differences in demand. In line with these results, it becomes important for investors to consider the GEPU Index and the economic conditions affecting this index within the scope of their hedging strategies. Keywords: Economic policy uncertainty, crude oil, spot market, futures market, causality in frequency JEL Codes: G32, G15, C32

Empirical Analysis of Health Assessment Objective and Subjective Methods on the Determinants of Health

BackgroundThere are several methods for assessing health status. The aims of this study were to investigate the empirical differences between health assessment objective and subjective methods, to identify a possible long-term relationship between methods and health determinants and the influence of these methods on the perceived level of risk according to health determinants.MethodsUsing data from 1970 to 2018 in the United States, health status was assessed by perception of health, absence from work due to self-reported illness, life expectancy at birth and mortality rate. Health determinants were tobacco and alcohol consumptions, number of physicians per 1,000 persons, stay in hospitalization unit, curative care, release of greenhouse gases, per capita gross domestic product (GDP) and urbanization. The differences between health objective and subjective assessment methods were investigated through a Generalized linear model, a structural break date of health methods was investigated by Chow test and the long-term relationship between health assessment methods and health determinants by Engle and Granger cointegration test.ResultsTobacco consumption was associated with a decrease of life expectancy while no long-term causal relationship was found between them. There was a positive correlation between alcohol consumption and perception of good health with a long-term causal relationship. Although per capita GDP positively influenced life expectancy, there was no cointegration between them. The release of greenhouse gases was positively correlated with both the absence from work due to self-reported illness and the perception of good health. Finally, curative care was associated with a decrease of mortality and absence from work due to self-reported illness and an increase of life expectancy and perception of good health while hospitalization is positively correlated with mortality and negatively correlated with life expectancy with a long-term causal relationship. Finally, the number of physicians per 1,000 persons was not correlated with health assessment methods used.ConclusionOur results highlight the influence of health assessment methods on the determinants of health and the fact that the perceived risk of health determinants changes according to the method used. Thus, the impact of health assessment methods must be considered in order to prioritize the determinants of health.