Osteoarthritis is linked to dementia, but no longitudinal studies have established this connection. This prospective cohort study from the Locomotive Syndrome and Health Outcome in Aizu Cohort Study (LOHAS) aimed to determine if knee osteoarthritis (KOA) independently predicts dementia in adults aged 65 and above. Participants were classified by the Kellgren-Laurence scale into no/minimal KOA (grades 0 and I) and definitive KOA (grade II or higher). We analyzed dementia incidence from 2009 to 2015 using long-term care insurance data, adjusting for age, sex, vascular risks, depressive symptoms, and activity levels. Out of 1089 participants (58.9% female, average age 72.5), 72.0% had definitive KOA. Dementia occurrence was significantly higher in the definitive group (8.4%) compared to the no/minimal group (3.0%) (p < 0.001). A log-rank test and Cox regression analysis confirmed these findings, showing an adjusted hazard ratio of 2.29 (confidence interval: 1.12-4.68) for dementia in those with definitive KOA. These results suggest that KOA is a significant risk factor for dementia, highlighting the importance of addressing contributing factors in KOA patients to potentially slow the progression of dementia.