Long-run Yield Research Articles

Estimating Cotton Yield Response Surface to Planting and Harvest Dates in Arkansas

Knowledge of anticipated long-run yield penalties over a range of planting and harvest time periods is necessary to formulate whole-farm planning models. Until now, gaps existed for several cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) planting-by-harvest-date combinations. Publicly available data from the Arkansas Cotton Research Verification and Sustainability Program deemed suitable for this research included 169 fields from 19 years and 22 counties. Given several relevant plant and harvest weeks had no observations, a response surface was estimated. Results indicated that planting during weeks 18 to 20 minimized yield penalties, but only when harvested in corresponding best weeks. Likewise, yield penalties can be avoided if harvested during weeks 40 to 43, but only when planted in respective best weeks. Ten planting-by-harvest-week combinations were associated with at least 98% attainable yield. Fields planted and harvested outside these 10 weeks were susceptible to yield penalties. Penalties during weeks adjacent to optimal combinations tended to be minor, usually less than 5% deviations, but more severe further from the top of the response surface. Fields planted during week 22 and harvested in week 42 expected 21% yield penalty. Current Extension recommendations based on heuristics were validated from these estimates. Results are of interest to equipment manufacturers, agricultural engineers developing machinery, agricultural lenders assessing the risk of equipment loans, farmers considering optimal equipment capacity for acreage, and farm management economists estimating whole-farm profitability. Response surface methods are useful to estimate yield penalties for planting and harvest date combinations via field-scale observations.

Exploring the consequence of ecological and agronomic determinants on wheat production instabilities in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan: Perspectives from dynamic autoregressive distributed lag analysis

One of the major obstacles to agriculture is global climate change, which damages crop productivity through increasing temperatures and irregular precipitation patterns. Wheat, one of the most vital staple crops in the world, is particularly susceptible to these weather Therefore, understanding the fundamental relationship between wheat yield and climate is critical in developing effective adaptation and mitigation plans. The study aims to determine how unirrigated wheat yield evolves depending on the temperature, humidity, rainfall, rainfed areas, and fertilizer in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. The Kripfganz method was used for p-value calculation, and the DYNARDL simulation model and the autoregressive distributed lag bound testing were used to analyze data from the Development Statistics of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and the Pakistan Meteorological Department. Unit root analysis was used to check the stationarity of the time series. Then, DYARDL-bound Testing was used for long-run cointegration analysis among variables. The short-run influence of precipitation is substantial, but the long-run impact is not. Meanwhile, the use of chemical fertilizers does not influence yields in either the short or long run. In addition, neither short-run nor long-run yields are statistically significantly connected with the highest temperature. The DYNARDL simulation model reveals precipitation, rainfed-area, and fertilization shocks in the long and short run. The 10 % positive and negative shocks in DYNARDL simulations are supplemented with graphical interpretations of the impact on yield. The study results may have significant implications for policymakers and management professionals in the agriculture sector in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.These findings can inform the development of strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate change on wheat yields, ultimately enhancing food security and agricultural sustainability in the region.

Comparison of conservation instruments under long-run yield uncertainty and farmer risk aversion

Abstract Consumers and policymakers are increasingly concerned with environmental sustainability in food production. Yet rates of adoption of many conservation practices vary and are generally low. Existing instruments for practice adoption increase farmers’ expected net benefits from sustainable practices but do not manage associated risks which may be critical to risk-averse farmers. We build a model to characterize practice adoption by risk-averse farmers given practice-driven, long-run yield dynamics under various instruments, including price premiums, lump-sum subsidies and green insurance. We find rich scale and compositional effects that differ across instruments and that green insurance is significantly more cost-effective under plausible conditions.

The financial value of seasonal forecast-based cultivar choice: Assessing the evidence in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia

Among many other options, seasonal weather forecasts and the use of cultivars that are better adapted to local climate and climate variability have been discussed as two potential supporting measures to assist farmer adaptation to climatic variability and change. In this article, we evaluate the potential benefit of combining these two measures, i.e., choosing specific crop varieties based on seasonal forecasts – focusing on the Central Rift Valley in Ethiopia. We base our value of information analysis on the available records of field trial data for publicly released crop varieties. We find that experimental evidence must be extended and improved in order to provide reliable evidence of yield performance differences between crop varieties, which is an essential prerequisite for exploiting forecast information. Classification of cumulative seasonal rainfall based on the modified Rainfall Anomaly Index provides a sharper distinction than using the standard tercile-based approach employed in the Ethiopian seasonal forecast communication. Even with a fairly optimistic interpretation of the evidence with respect to exploitable yield differences, we find only modest benefits of seasonal forecasts at realistic forecast accuracy for the region. Given the empirical limitations when assembling long-run yield data, the presented results have to be understood as a first approximation. Apart from sufficiently accurate forecasts, success of forecast-based cultivar choice will depend on (i) more reliable evidence on performance differences between crop varieties under different weather conditions, and (ii) changes in the current seed breeding and distribution system in developing countries, because the full potential of high-accuracy seasonal forecast information could only be tapped, if forecast-matching cultivars are being made available to farmers in time.

Extrapolating Long-Run Yield Curves: An Innovative and Consistent Approach

This article proposes a method to build term structures that are consistent with market data and that provide interest rates for which the volatility, on average, decreases as maturities increase. The method is designed for continuous repetitive use and is consistent with work by Diebold and Li, providing reasonable extrapolated rates, with an appropriate level of volatility over time. The Svensson model is adopted, and its parameters are estimated by the combination of a genetic algorithm and a quasi-Newton nonlinear optimization method. We innovate with a new objective function that focuses on both parts of the estimated curves (interpolated and extrapolated). For this purpose, a stability component is added. The new objective function aims to solve the problem of estimating long-term rates not observable in the market, for which the estimates are usually artificially stable or excessively volatile. The results show that the estimation method is able to bring the volatility of extrapolated rates to levels consistent with those observed for the longest liquid rate. Estimation errors are small enough and there is no statistical evidence that they are biased. The method is useful for the insurance market, since it provides interest rates that do not lead to artificially stable or excessively volatile technical provisions.

Comparison of Conservation Incentives under Long-Run Yield Uncertainty and Farmer Risk Aversion

Comparison of Conservation Incentives under Long-Run Yield Uncertainty and Farmer Risk Aversion

The Long-Run Information Effect of Central Bank Communication

Why do long-run interest rates respond to central bank communication? Whereas existing explanations imply a common set of signals drives short and long-run yields, we show that news on economic uncertainty can have increasingly large effects along the yield curve. To evaluate this channel, we use the publication of the Bank of England’s Inflation Report, from which we measure a set of high-dimensional signals. The signals that drive long-run interest rates do not affect short-run rates and operate primarily through the term premium. This suggests communication plays an important role in shaping perceptions of long-run uncertainty. JEL Classification: E52, E58, C55

The long-run information effect of central bank communication

Why do long-run interest rates respond to central bank communication? Whereas existing explanations imply a common set of signals drives short and long-run yields, we show that news on economic uncertainty can have increasingly large effects along the yield curve. To evaluate this channel, we use the publication of the Bank of England’s Inflation Report, from which we measure a set of high-dimensional signals. The signals that drive long-run interest rates do not affect short-run rates and operate primarily through the term premium. This suggests communication plays an important role in shaping perceptions of long-run uncertainty.

Long-term crop productivity response and its interaction with cereal markets and energy prices

Crop yields are endogenous as long as economic agents adjust to permanent changes in expected prices. The literature, however, does not offer a definitive value of how much yield would change in response to sustained price changes. To fill the gap, we use available scientific findings and data to estimate yield elasticities that enable agricultural commodity and food policy analysis. Using a world market model with short- to long-run yield response, we show the impacts of sustained energy price shocks on global cereal supply and demand. The results highlight substantial differences in quantity and price effects depending on the yield elasticities. These results demonstrate the need to recognize yield response when assessing impacts of energy prices or biofuel production on food uses or, more generally, on food security in the face of income and population growth, evolving dietary patterns, climate change implications, or other long-run pressures.

The long-run information effect of central bank communication

Why do long-run interest rates respond to central bank communication? Whereas existing explanations imply a common set of signals drives short and long-run yields, we show that news on economic uncertainty can have increasingly large effects along the yield curve. To evaluate this channel, we use the publication of the Bank of England’s Inflation Report, from which we measure a set of high-dimensional signals. The signals that drive long-run interest rates do not affect short-run rates and operate primarily through the term premium. This suggests communication plays an important role in shaping perceptions of long-run uncertainty.

Expectations and Equilibrium in High-Grade Australian Bond Markets

This paper examines the equilibrium implications of the Expectations Hypothesis of term structure to different maturities of high-grade Australian dollar denominated Eurobonds and Australian Government bonds (AGBs) using the Canonical Cointegrating Regression (CCR) technique developed by Econometrica 60 (1992) 119. Our findings provide evidence only for equilibrium relationships between each group of bonds based on credit class, but not between any of the subsets of AGBs and the Eurobonds. Furthermore, the error correction model supports theory with the most liquid, long-term 10-year AGB driving the AGB term structure, with short-term yields adjusting to movements in the long-run yields, though the opposite is true for Eurobonds. The lesson for markets is to simplify the risk management task. Managers are advised to treat portfolios of equivalent credit class separately for hedging and risk management.

SEVERANCE TAX STABILITY

Government officials in the energy-producing states are seeking ways to improve the revenue stability of the severance tax. In this study we determine how substitution of a fixed-rate per unit severance tax for a fixed-rate ad valorem severance tax would affect four measures of stability: long-run yield stability, long-run yield growth, counter-cyclical stabilizing influence, and cyclical yield stability. The data needed for applying each measure are generated by using the Oklahoma State Econometric Model to simulate three scenarios of state income and severance tax revenues. Our results show that the proposed substitution would produce greater cyclical and long-run yield stability, but diminished counter-cyclical stabilizing influence and smaller long-run yield growth.

Assessing the long-run yield of a forest stand subject to the risk of fire

The problem of determining the effects of forest fire on stand yields is often neglected in forest yield analyses. Using previous theoretical results, "fire-adjusted, volume–rotation curves" can be developed which provide a graphical technique for determining optimal rotation age and long-run yield when the risk of fire is present. For white spruce of the northern interior of British Columbia it is shown that even modest rates of fire can result in very large reductions in long-run yield. Similar results are established for the effects of fire on land expectation value, which is dissipated very quickly under the risk of fire.