Long-run Risk Research Articles

Asset pricing with long-run disaster risk.

Traditional disaster models with time-varying disaster risk are not perfect in explaining asset returns. We redefine rare economic disasters and develop a novel disaster model with long-run disaster risk to match the asset return moments observed in the U.S. data. The difference from traditional disaster models is that our model contains the long-run disaster risk by treating the long-run ingredient of consumption growth as a function of time-varying disaster probability. Our model matches the U.S. data better than the traditional disaster model with time-varying disaster risk. This study uncovers an additional channel through which disaster risk affects asset returns and bridges the gap between long-run risk models and rare disaster models.

Long-Run Risk Unwrapped: An Analytical Expression of the Wealth-Consumption Ratio

Long-Run Risk Unwrapped: An Analytical Expression of the Wealth-Consumption Ratio

Concerns for Long-Run Risks and Natural Resource Policy

Concerns for Long-Run Risks and Natural Resource Policy

Trendy Business Cycles and Asset Prices

Abstract The data-generating process underlying productivity includes both trend and business cycle shocks, generating counterfactuals for prices under full information. In practice, agents’ inability to immediately distinguish between the two shocks creates “rational confusion”: each shock inherits properties of its counterpart. This confusion magnifies the perceived share of permanent shocks and implies that, contrary to canonical frameworks, transitory shocks are the main driver of long-run risk through trendy business cycles. With learning, the equity premium turns positive, while investment and valuation ratios become procyclical, as in the data. Consequently, rational confusion is key for reconciling disciplined macro-dynamics with equilibrium Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

The role of climatic changes and financial development to the ASEAN agricultural output: a novel long-run evidence for sustainable production.

This paper examines the impact of climate variables and financial development on agricultural value-added and cereal production in selected Southeast Asian economies from 1970 to 2016. The current research applies second-generation advanced techniques to accomplish robust and reliable outcomes. The findings from the FM-OLS estimation disclose that climatic factors, for instance, CO2e and average temperature, impact both agricultural value-added and cereal production negatively, and financial development has an inverted U-shaped influence on both agricultural value-added andcereal production. Meanwhile, other important factors, including cropped area, income level, and rural labor force, significantly improve agricultural value-added and cereal production. Furthermore, the FM-OLS estimator's D-H panel causality test outcomes are reliable. The findings of our study reveal that both the short- and long-run risks of climatic changes to the agricultural sector pose a large-scale threat to food security in Southeast Asian economies. As a result, a robust and stable financial development in terms of governance of climate change finance in the agriculture sector must be achieved to enhance farmers' ability to adapt to current and future climate change adverse impacts.

Term structure of interest rates with short-run and long-run risks

We find that interest rate variance risk premium (IRVRP) — the difference between implied and realized variances of interest rates — is a strong predictor of U.S. Treasury bond returns of maturities ranging between one and ten years for return horizons up to six months. IRVRP is not subsumed by other predictors such as forward rate spread or equity variance risk premium. These results are robust in a number of dimensions. We rationalize our findings within a consumption-based model with long-run risk, economic uncertainty, and inflation non-neutrality. In the model IRVRP is related to short-run risk only, while standard forward-rate-based factors are associated with both short-run and long-run risks in the economy. Our model qualitatively replicates the predictability pattern of IRVRP for bond returns.

Regime shifts in a long-run risks model of stock and treasury bond markets

PurposeThis paper aims to study the asset pricing implications for stock and bond markets in a long-run risks (LRR) model with regime shifts. This general equilibrium framework can not only generate sign-switching stock-bond correlations and bond risk premium, but also quantitatively reproduce various other salient empirical features in stock and bond markets, including time-varying equity and bond return premia, regime shifts in real and nominal yield curves, the violation of the expectations hypothesis of bond returns.Design/methodology/approachThe researchers study the joint determinants of stock and bond returns in a LRR model framework with regime shifts in consumption and inflation dynamics. In particular, the means, volatilities, and the correlation structure between consumption growth and inflation are regime-dependent.FindingsThe model shows that the term structure of interest rates and stock-bond correlation are intimately related to business cycles, while LRR play a more important role in accounting for high equity premium than do business cycle risks.Originality/valueThis paper studies the joint determinants of stock and bond returns in a Bansal and Yaron (2004) type of LRR framework. This rational expectations general equilibrium framework can (1) jointly match the dynamics of consumption, inflation and cash flow; (2) generate time-varying and sign-switching stock and bond correlations, as well as generating sign-switching bond risk premium; and (3) coherently explain another long list of salient empirical features in stock and bond markets, including time-varying equity and bond return premia, regime shifts in real and nominal yield curves, the violation of the expectations hypothesis of bond returns.

Required Capital for Long-Run Risks

One of the objectives of the recent microprudential regulation is to separate the computation of required capital for short-run and long-run risks. This paper provides a coherent framework to define, compute, and update these components. The approach is developed in greater details in the context of the transition to low-carbon economies. A numerical example is given.

Extreme Inflation and Time-Varying Expected Consumption Growth

In a parsimonious regime switching model, we find strong evidence that expected consumption growth varies over time. Adding inflation as a second variable, we uncover two states in which expected consumption growth is low, one with high and one with negative expected inflation. Embedded in a general equilibrium asset pricing model with learning, these dynamics replicate the observed time variation in stock return volatilities and stock-bond return correlations. They also provide an alternative derivation for a measure of time-varying disaster risk suggested by Watcher [ Wachter J (2013 ) Can time-varying risk of rare disasters explain aggregate stock market volatility? J. Finance 68(3):987–1035]. implying that both the disaster and the long-run risk paradigm can be extended toward explaining movements in the stock-bond correlation. This paper was accepted by Kay Giesecke, finance. Funding: We gratefully acknowledge research and financial support from the Leibniz Center for Financial Research SAFE (formerly Research Center SAFE, funded by the State of Hessen initiative for research LOEWE). Supplemental Material: The data files and online appendices are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.4451 .

Do Information Security Breach and Its Factors Have a Long-Run Competitive Effect on Breached Firms’ Equity Risk?

A breach in information security (infosec) can materially impact a firm’s long-term competitiveness. For publicly listed firms, an infosec breach can have a long-lasting effect on their competitive stock performance, including their equity risk. Despite its significance, past research has focused primarily on examining the short-term effect of infosec breaches while ignoring its long-term effect on the firm’s equity risk. Therefore, in this research, we examined the long-run effect of 276 infosec breaches at publicly traded firms on equity risk from 2009 to 2018. We analyzed each firm’s equity risk compared to its competitive control firms of similar sizes and performances for three years, from one year before to two years after the breach, using a one-to-one matching methodology. The univariate analysis of infosec breaches on equity risk indicated that breach firms have a 7% higher equity risk than competitive control firms. Additionally, the quantile regression analysis of the effect of infosec breach factors on long-run equity risk showed that the rise in equity risk is higher if the breach involves the compromise of confidential information and is a repeat breach for the same firm. The findings provide a valuable resource for investors, managers, and researchers interested in understanding the long-term relationship between infosec breaches and a firm’s stock competitiveness.

Uncertainty Shocks, Innovation, and Productivity

Abstract In this paper, we argue that macroeconomic uncertainty shocks cause a persistent decline in economic activity, investment in R&D, and total factor productivity. After providing empirical evidence, we build a DSGE model with sticky prices and endogenous growth through investment in R&D. In this framework, uncertainty shocks lead to a short-term fall in demand because of precautionary savings and rising markups. The reduction in the utilised aggregate stock of R&D determines a fall in productivity, which causes a long-term reduction in the main macroeconomic aggregates. When households feature Epstein–Zin preferences, they become averse to these long-term risks affecting their consumption process (long-run risk channel), which severely exacerbates the precautionary savings motive and the overall adverse effects of uncertainty shocks.

Which is Better: Value Strategy or Growth Strategy?

Purpose: On the backdrop of the recent value versus growth debate in both academics and investment community, this paper investigates which is a better strategy, value or growth strategy. Design/methodology/approach: Reworking the Euler equation, this paper derives the relationship among return, profit growth, and risk. We use three different risk metrics proposed by Park and Fang (2021). We regress the value minus growth return on profit growth and risk variables to determine which is the primary driver of the return in the Korean stock market. The data run from 2000 through 2021. Findings: Our data show that the accumulated return on value minus growth stocks steadily increases over 2000- 2012 in Korea, indicating that value stocks outperform growth stocks over the long horizon. Our regression results show that the time-varying risk effect reverts from negativity contemporaneously to positivity with a time lag, and its temporal effect is negligible when aggregated in time. There exists a positive long-run risk effect on the value minus growth return. However, the effect of profit growth on return is not significant, indicating that growth firms’ profit prospect is not a factor in the determination of value minus growth return. Research limitations/implications: In the past, stock market uncertainty (risk) have been most caused by either financial system failures or technological innovations. Whether value stocks outperform growth stocks or vice versa may crucially depends on the causes of stock market uncertainty. We need to refine our model to account for the differences in the causes of stock market uncertainty. Originality/value: Our model is a first attempt to combine profit growth and risk in a unifying framework to explain the value and growth spread in the stock market. The conditional CAPM is a risk-based approach in which profit growth is not accounted for.

A Correlative Study of Modern Logistics Industry in Developing Economy and Carbon Emission Using ARDL: A Case of Pakistan

The modern logistics industry in relation to economic growth and carbon emission has opened new strategic perspectives. Recent research work have analyzed such complex interference from a broad perspective. However, analyzing this overlap needs comprehensive insight into the logistics industry while simultaneously estimating its short-run and long-run effects from regional aspects due to continue-evolving factors and their impact on it. This paper competently analyzes logistics industry components in connection with economic prosperity, energy consumption, trade development, and carbon emission from a more specific regional perspective of a developing country. Methodologically, an autoregressive distributive lag model (ARDL) is employed using correlative evaluation of the dynamic factors and their interactive impact in short and long run on this relation, based on time-series data of Pakistan from 1990 to 2019. The study results endorse the previous studies’ outcomes by recognizing that an increase in carbon emission depends on trade development, energy usage, economic development, and the logistics industry’s various components except for air logistics. However, study results show a unidirectional long-run causality directing from economic development, logistics industry, energy utilization, and trade development to carbon emission. Moreover, these results reveal that this emission is the leading factor to introduce stringent emission standards that further overlap with regional demographics trends, i.e., carbon emission implications. These findings imply that economic development applies a substantial demand-pull impact on national logistics, i.e., regional economic development directs to the growth of the logistics industry in the corresponding region. Consequently, high-income geographical regions have higher long-run risk concerning contemporary developmental activities of the logistics industry when adhering to carbon emission standards. Particularly, the influence of upcoming emission standards must be prioritized when planning the future returns of contemporary research and development activities of the logistics industry in a given geographic area, such as CPEC. Given Pakistan’s perspective, the proposed empirical analysis can be exampled to other developing countries. This analysis may facilitate the design and development of strategies for upcoming financial funding in the modern logistics industry to seek its sustainable development-goals in developing economies.

Precautionary liquidity shocks, excess reserves and business cycles

This paper identifies a precautionary banking liquidity shock via a set of sign, zero and forecast variance restrictions imposed. The shock proxies the banking sector’s reluctance to lend to the real economy induced by an exogenous preference change for liquid assets. Through the lens of a DSGE model, the precautionary liquidity shock is shown to work through two channels: reserves (balance sheet) and the deposit rate (intertemporal effect). The overall effect is a downward co-movement in output, consumption, investment, and prices, which is amplified the higher are the long-run risks in the economy and banks’ responsiveness to potential risk.

Heterogeneity in Intangible Capital, Long-Run Risk, and Return of Research and Development

Heterogeneity in Intangible Capital, Long-Run Risk, and Return of Research and Development

Regime Shifts in a Long-run Risks Model of U.S. Stock and Treasury Bond Markets

I study the joint determinants of stock and bond returns in Bansal and Yaron (2004) long-run risks model framework with regime shifts in consumption and in‡ation dynamics –in particular, the means, volatilities, and the correlation structure between consumption growth and in‡ation are regime-dependent. This general equilibrium framework can (1) generate time-varying and switching signs of stock and bond correlations, as well as switching signs of bond risk premium; (2) quantitatively reproduce various other salient empirical features in stock and bond markets, including time-varying equity and bond return premia, regime shifts in real and nominal yield curve, the violation of expectations hypothesis of bond returns. The model shows that term structure of interest rates and stock-bond correlation are intimately related to business cycles, while long-run risks play a more important role to account for high equity premium than business cycle risks.

Term Structure of Interest Rates with Short-Run and Long-Run Risks

Term Structure of Interest Rates with Short-Run and Long-Run Risks

The Long-Run Risk Premium in the ICAPM: International Evidence

The Long-Run Risk Premium in the ICAPM: International Evidence

Earthquake Risk Embedded in Property Prices: Evidence From Five Japanese Cities

We analyze the impact of short-run (90 days) and long-run (30 years) earthquake risk on real estate transaction prices in five Japanese cities (Tokyo, Osaka, Nagoya, Fukuoka, and Sapporo), using quarterly data over the period 2006–2015. We exploit a rich panel dataset (331,343 observations) with property characteristics, ward attractiveness information, macroeconomic variables, and long-run seismic hazard data, supplemented with short-run earthquake probabilities generated from a seismic excitation model using historical earthquake occurrences. We design a hedonic property price model that allows for subjective probability weighting, employ a multivariate error components structure, and develop associated maximum likelihood estimation and variance computation procedures. Our approach enables us to identify the total compensation for earthquake risk embedded in property prices, to decompose this into pieces stemming from short-run and long-run risk, and to distinguish between objective and subjectively weighted (“distorted”) earthquake probabilities. We find that objective long-run earthquake probabilities have a statistically significant negative impact on property prices, whereas short-run earthquake probabilities become statistically significant only when we allow them to be distorted. The total compensation for earthquake risk amounts to an average –2.0% of log property prices, slightly more than the annual income of a middle-income Japanese household. Supplementary materials for this article, including a standardized description of the materials available for reproducing the work, are available as an online supplement.

The Volatility Premium

The difference, average risk-neutral and physical volatility, is substantial and translates into a large return premium for sellers of index options. This paper studies a general equilibrium model based on long-run risk in an effort to explain the premium. In estimating the model using data on stock returns and volatility (VIX), the model captures the premium and also the large negative correlation between shocks to volatility and stock prices. Numerical simulations verify that writers of index options earn high rates of return in equilibrium and that the return patterns are similar to that seen in the S&P 500 index options data.