Long-run Phillips Curve Research Articles

Money illusion and the long-run Phillips curve in staggered wage-setting models

We consider the effect of money illusion – defined referring to Stevens' ratio estimation function – on the long-run Phillips curve in an otherwise standard New Keynesian model of sticky wages. We show that if households under-perceive real economic variables, negative money non-superneutralities will become more severe. On the contrary, if households over-perceive real variables, positive money non-superneutralities will arise. We also provide a welfare analysis of our results and we show that they are robust to the inclusion of varying capital into the model. Firms' (over-)under-perception of the real prices of production inputs (strengthens) weakens negative money non-superneutralities. In the Appendix, we investigate how money illusion affects the short-run effects of a monetary shock.

Does history matter?: Empirical analysis of evolutionary versus stationary equilibrium views of the economy

The evolutionary vision in which history matters is of an evolving economy driven by bursts of technological change initiated by agents facing uncertainty and producing long term, path-dependent growth and shorter-term, non-random investment cycles. The alternative vision in which history does not matter is of a stationary, ergodic process driven by rational agents facing risk and producing stable trend growth and shorter term cycles caused by random disturbances. We use Carlaw and Lipsey’s simulation model of non-stationary, sustained growth driven by endogenous, path-dependent technological change under uncertainty to generate artificial macro data. We match these data to the New Classical stylized growth facts. The raw simulation data pass standard tests for trend and difference stationarity, exhibiting unit roots and cointegrating processes of order one. Thus, contrary to current belief, these tests do not establish that the real data are generated by a stationary process. Real data are then used to estimate time-varying NAIRU’s for six OECD countries. The estimates are shown to be highly sensitive to the time period over which they are made. They also fail to show any relation between the unemployment gap, actual unemployment minus estimated NAIRU and the acceleration of inflation. Thus there is no tendency for inflation to behave as required by the New Keynesian and earlier New Classical theory. We conclude by rejecting the existence of a well-defined a short-run, negatively sloped Philips curve, a NAIRU, a unique general equilibrium, short and long-run, a vertical long-run Phillips curve, and the long-run neutrality of money.

A Search Model of Unemployment and Inflation*

This paper introduces money into the standard labor-matching model. A double-coincidence problem makes money necessary as a medium of exchange. In the long run, a rise in the growth rate of money leads to higher inflation and higher unemployment, such that the long-run Phillips curve is not vertical. The optimal monetary growth rate decreases with greater worker bargaining power, the level of unemployment benefits, and the payroll tax rate.

Non-stationary inflation and panel estimates of United States short and long-run Phillips curves

This paper argues that because United States inflation has been non-stationary over the past five decades the vast body of empirical research that proceeds without adequately accounting for the non-stationarity in the data is invalid. Using 50 years of United States inflation data the standard results in the Phillips curve literature are shown to be due to unaccounted shifts in the mean rates of inflation over the period. Short and long-run Phillips curves for the United States are then estimated using time series panel data techniques that account for these shifts in mean.

Estimating Venezuelas Latent Inflation

Percent variation of the consumer price index (CPI) is the inflation indicator most widely used. This indicator, however, has some drawbacks. In addition to measurement errors of the CPI, there is a problem of incongruence between the definition of inflation as a sustained and generalized increase of prices and the traditional measure associated with the CPI. We use data from 1991 to 2005 to estimate a complementary indicator for Venezuela, the highest inflation country in Latin America. Latent inflation is defined as that component of measured inflation that has no impact on real output in the long-run. This notion, consequently, is consistent with a vertical long-run Phillips curve and therefore it is grounded on economic theory. Latent inflation is constructed placing dynamic restrictions on a structural vector auto regression system. We find that latent inflation reflects more closely the generalized and sustained price increases most likely to be impacted by monetary policy. Our results are consistent with the identifying restrictions and with the theoretical definition of inflation.

Flattening of the Phillips Curve: Estimations and consequences for economic policy

We test the hypothesis that the long-term Phillips curve is downward sloping and has become flatter in the last 10 to 15 years. Controlling for the most important other factors influencing the inflation rate, we estimate cointegrations and test whether a »break« in the Phillips curve can be detected. We restrict our study to Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the UK and the USA. The results vary considerably between the countries, but all exhibit a downward sloping long-run Phillips curve and show the presumed »break«. First we explain the results by changes in the wage or price setting circumstance. Then we critically discuss explanations based on the time-varying NAIRU and put against them explanations based on aggregate demand and hysteresis. In the conclusion, some consequences for economic policy are indicated.

Dynamic Probabilities of Restrictions in State Space Models: An Application to the Phillips Curve

Using the Savage–Dickey density ratio and an alternative approach that uses more relaxed assumptions, we develop methods to calculate the probability that a restriction holds at a point in time without assuming that the restriction holds at any other points in time. Both approaches use MCMC output only from the unrestricted model to compute the time-varying posterior probabilities for all models of interest. Using U.S. data, we find the probability that the long-run Phillips curve is vertical to be fairly high, but decreases over time. The probability that the NAIRU is not identified fluctuates over time, but increases after 1990.

Macroeconomic Implications of Near Rational Behavior: An Application to the Italian Phillips Curve

New-Keynesian macroeconomic models typically conclude that long-run unemployment gravitates around the NAIRU, regardless of the nominal inflation rate. Contrastingly, the model of Akerlof, Dickens and Perry (2000) (ADP) predicts that excessively low inflation may result in a situation where unemployment is high relative to the social optimum. This paper investigates whether ADP-type short- and long-run Phillips Curves may suit the Italian economy. Firstly we estimated a short-run non-accelerationist Phillips curve (i.e. where the expected inflation coefficient depends on inflation and it is generally less than unit) on Italian post-war data. Based on these results, we then simulated the long-run Phillips Curve and ran robustness checks by using a rival cointegration approach. We have two main results. First, the Italian short-run Phillips curve is actually non-accelerationist. Second, our estimates indicate that in Italy a long-run trade-off between inflation and unemployment cannot be ruled out at low and moderate inflation rates.

The Inflation-Output Trade-Off with Downward Wage Rigidities

The macroeconomic implications of downward nominal wage rigidities are analyzed via a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model featuring aggregate and idiosyncratic shocks. A closed-form solution for a long-run Phillips curve relates average output gap to average wage inflation: it is virtually vertical at high inflation and flattens at low inflation. Macroeconomic volatility shifts the curve outwards and reduces output. The results imply that stabilization policies play an important role, and that optimal inflation may be positive and differ across countries with different macroeconomic volatility. Results are robust to relaxing the wage constraint, for example, when large idiosyncratic shocks arise. (JEL E23, E24, E31, E63)

An Empirical Analysis on China’s Long-Run Phillips Curve with Characteristics of Hyperbola

By analyzing the history of traditional Phillips curves, this paper criticizes that the nonlinear characteristics have been ignored on the Phillips curve studies. Based on the Chinese annual data during 1979-2005, the paper does an empiricl analysis by creating a long-run Phillips curve. The paper leads with four results as follows: First, the long-run Phillips curve can be a special rational function with the characteristics of hyperbola. Second, the model can explain why the long-run Phillips curve may occupy a negative slope, positive slope or be a parele line, vertical line. Third, the paper finds that the China’s long-run Phillips curve fluctuates periodically aroud the coordinate in an anticlockwise direction. Final, the paper achieves that the threshold of China’s economic overheating at the point of the real GDP growth rate is 10.94% and the threshold of serious inflation at the point of cpi is 7.44%.

The Inflation-Unemployment Trade-Off At Low Inflation

Wage setters take into account the future consequences of their current wage choices in the presence of downward nominal wage rigidities. Several interesting implications arise. First, a closed-form solution for a long-run Phillips curve relates average unemployment to average wage inflation; the curve is virtually vertical for high inflation rates but becomes flatter as inflation declines. Second, macroeconomic volatility shifts the Phillips curve outward, implying that stabilization policies can play an important role in shaping the trade-off. Third, nominal wages tend to be endogenously rigid also upward, at low inflation. Fourth, when inflation decreases, volatility of unemployment increases whereas the volatility of inflation decreases: this implies a long-run trade-off also between the volatility of unemployment and that of wage inflation.

A Phillips curve interpretation of error-correction models of the wage and price dynamics

This paper presents a model of employment, distribution and inflation in which a modern error correction specification of the nominal wage and price dynamics (referring to claims on income by workers and firms) occupies a prominent role. It is brought out, explicitly, how this rather typical error-correction setting, which actually seems to capture the wage and price dynamics of many large-scale econometric models quite well, is fully compatible with the notion of an old-fashioned Phillips curve with finite slope. It is shown how the steady-state impact of various shocks to the model can be profitably conceived of and interpreted in terms of (and to some extent even calculated by means of) this long-run Phillips curve. Copyright The Author 2008. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Cambridge Political Economy Society. All rights reserved., Oxford University Press.

Phillips Curves, Monetary Policy, and a Labor Market Transmission Mechanism

This paper develops a general equilibrium monetary model with performance incentives to study the inflation-unemployment relationship. A long-run downward-sloping Phillips curve can exist with perfectly anticipated inflation because workers' incentive to exert effort depend on financial market returns. Consequently, higher inflation rates can reduce wages and stimulate employment. An upward-sloping or vertical Phillips Curve can arise instead, depending on agents' risk aversion and the possibility of capital formation. Welfare might be higher away from the Friedman rule and with a central bank putting some weight on employment.

The long-run Phillips curve and non-stationary inflation

Modern theories of inflation incorporate a vertical long-run Phillips curve and are usually estimated using techniques that ignore the non-stationary behaviour of inflation. Consequently, the estimates obtained are imprecise and unable to test the veracity of a vertical long-run Phillips curve. We estimate a Phillips curve model taking into account the non-stationary properties in inflation and identify a small but significant positive relationship between inflation and unemployment. The results also provide some evidence that the trade-off between inflation and the rate of unemployment in the short-run worsens as the mean rate of inflation increases.

Increasing returns to scale and the long-run Phillips curve

A growing body of empirical evidence shows that there exists a long-run positive trade-off between inflation and real macroeconomic activity. Within a New Keynesian framework, we examine how increasing returns generate a positive long-run relation between inflation and output.

Financial Strains and the Zero Lower Bound: The Japanese Experience

We analyse the case of persistent deflation in Japan by estimating the long-run Phillips curve equation using the GDP deflator and the estimated GDP gap. Then we show that the Japanese banking sector has been losing money since the early 1990s due to the heavy credit cost and that it is quickly running out of capital. The Japanese government has been preventing a banking crisis by providing a blanket guarantee on most banking sector liabilities. However, the government is facing a rapid deterioration of financial conditions due to massive budget deficits and the negative nominal GDP growth in recent years. In spite of the quantitative easing of monetary policy, the traditional interest rate policy has lost its potency due to the zero lower bound of nominal interest rates and accelerating deflation. Without stopping deflation quickly, the Japanese government may face capital flight due to the uncontrolled budget deficit. In order to cope with this unusual situation, two nontraditional policy measures are proposed: massive open market purchases of high-quality real assets and a negative nominal interest policy by levying tax on all government-guaranteed yen financial assets.

The long-run Phillips curve revisited: Is the NAIRU framework data-consistent?

For the estimation of constant as well as time-varying NAIRUs it is customary to assume – sometimes implicitly – that the long-run Phillips curve is vertical. We point out that the observed data often do not possess the stochastic properties that are needed to impose this restriction, especially when unemployment is non-stationary. Using Germany as a prototypical example, we apply a VAR cointegration analysis and find a negative long-run Phillips curve relation between inflation and unemployment which is robust with respect to variations of the specification. The dynamic interactions indicate that real forces drive the system in the long run, such that the results are compatible with standard economic models.

Editorial: The »New Monetary Policy« – A Critical Appraisal

First paragraphThe »New Monetary Policy« (NMP) is the major stabilisation policy associated with the so-called »New Consensus« (NC) view in macroeconomics. NC is the dominant view in modern mainstream economics. Its major tenets are (1) the supply-side determined equilibrium level of unemployment (e.g. NAIRU), and, related to it, (2) the acceptance of the long-run Phillips curve. Within this classical framework, the NC has first explored and then supported a role for short-run effective stabilisation policies, which have usually meant aggregate demand fine-tuning via changes in the short-run nominal interest rate controlled by the central bank. The contributions to this special issue, which contains some of the papers presented at the workshop on Macroeconomics and Macroeconomic Policy organized by the Research Network Alternative Macroeconomic Policies (Germany), the Post Keynesian Economic Study Group (UK), and the Association pour le Développement des Études Keynésiennes (France) on 28th and 29th October 2005 in Berlin, discuss this NC view and its NMP implications from a variety of perspectives and economic traditions.

Wage Bargaining and Monetary Policy in a Kaleckian Monetary Distribution and Growth Model: Trying to Make Sense of the NAIRU

In a Kaleckian monetary distribution and growth model with conflict inflation we assess the role of a Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU). The short-run stability of a NAIRU is examined taking into account real debt effects of accelerating and decelerating inflation, and the short-run effectiveness of monetary policy interventions applying the interest rate tool is analysed. The problem of long-run endogeneity of the NAIRU is addressed integrating the long-run distribution effects of monetary policies' real interest rate variations into the model. It is concluded that monetary policy interventions in order to stabilise inflation are either unnecessary or costly in terms of employment in the short run. In the long run, these policies bear the risk of continuously increasing the NAIRU in order to keep inflation under control, which yields a horizontal long-run Phillips curve and latent stagflation. Instead of relying on monetary policies, the cause of inflation should be directly addressed and wage bargaining co-ordination should be applied as an appropriate tool.

Low-inflation Targeting and Long-run Unemployment

The model of Akerlof, Dickens and Perry (2000) (ADP) predicts that low inflation may cause unemployment to persist at high levels. When applied to U.S. data, their results strongly rejected the conventional NAIRU model. We apply the ADP model to Swedish data. The fact that our Swedish data also reject the NAIRU model has a number of interesting implications for the Swedish economy and, potentially, for other European countries as well. The results indicate that raising the Swedish inflation target from 2 to 4 percent would bring long-run unemployment down by several percentage points. The possibility of ADP-type long-run Phillips curves also across the euro countries may raise some concern about the EMU project. While detailed studies on other countries are needed, there is nothing to suggest that these non-vertical Phillips curves would not differ considerably across the euro countries. Any single inflation level targeted by the ECB would then generate excess unemployment in individual member states.