Long-range Planning Research Articles

Considering Long-Range Land Use Plan Using Data of Population Change and Complex Disaster

Considering Long-Range Land Use Plan Using Data of Population Change and Complex Disaster

Mitigation of CO2 emissions from the road passenger transport sector in Bahrain

There is much optimism that the 2015 Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention will yield an agreement on mitigation of climate change, to become effective in 2020. In this context, Bahrain represents a developing country with insufficient data to assess mitigation opportunities: its per capita carbon emissions rank among the world’s highest, yet there has been no research on the reduction potential of its rapidly growing transport sector. We examine this reduction potential and the costs of various mitigation measures and, further, explore barriers and the view of policymakers and experts. Potential benefits of combined mitigation scenarios are also identified based on their acceptability. We adopt a modified participatory method to develop the scenarios, using the long-range energy alternative planning (LEAP) modelling system, and find that an integrated policy approach can deliver a 23 % reduction in carbon dioxide emissions, costing 108 United States dollars per avoided metric tonne, with politically acceptable scenarios. Better performance, however, would require less acceptable approaches. These findings are significant for decision-making in Bahrain and other Gulf Cooperation Council countries; national target preparation and the setting of fuel economy standards should be begun promptly. We offer lessons to other developing countries on the timely regulation of technical specifications and numbers of passenger vehicles. Participatory approaches to the assessment of mitigation measures can advance environmentally effective, economically feasible and politically acceptable scenarios. The global community can use these results to provide necessary technical and financial assistance to developing countries.

⁎P28 Transportation and Quality of Life: Where Do They Intersect?

BackgroundPolicymakers and researchers are increasingly recognizing the connection between public health and transportation, but health improvements are typically framed from a physical activity or active travel perspective rather than considering broader quality of life impacts. Currently, there is an inadequate understanding of the ways in which transportation and quality of life intersect, and little is known about what metropolitan planning organizations in the United States are doing to address quality of life outcomes. This study aims to develop a framework for transportation-related quality of life which we then used to examine the extent to which quality of life is being considered in metropolitan long-range transportation planning. MethodsBased on a review of the literature, a conceptual framework was developed which can aid planners and policymakers in incorporating quality of life into the transportation planning process. Long-range transportation plans were then collected for 148 of the largest metropolitan planning organizations in the United States for an aggregate content analysis. The proposed framework provided the basis for the selection of multiple quality-of-life-related search terms. 11 plans were examined in further detail to assess the context in which quality of life outcomes were referenced. Results: (Analysis Ongoing)The framework identified four domains of transportation-related quality of life: physical, mental, social, and functional well-being. Physical well-being was well-represented in the plans, typically in the context of safety, air quality/emissions, active transport, or environmental justice, but references to the other domains were scarcer. Terms explicitly referenced within federal transportation legislation planning factors such as “safety,” “accessibility,” or “mobility” appeared most frequently. Larger metropolitan planning organizations tended to reference “quality of life,” “mobility,” and “economic“ more frequently, but were less likely to mention “safety“ or “social.“ ConclusionsThe proposed framework indicates that quality of life is not being holistically considered in long-range transportation planning. Plans primarily targeted quality of life enhancements from a physical health perspective, but other dimensions such as mental or social well-being were rarely addressed. While several of the plans explicitly mentioned the improvement of quality of life as a key objective within their vision statements, others appeared to only address quality of life in so far as it satisfied federal requirements. Furthermore, references to improving quality of life were often vague, perhaps owing to its inconsistent interpretation. More than simply mirroring the language put forth by federal legislation, metropolitan planning organizations should actively work to achieve positive quality of life outcomes.

P02 Promotion of Active Transportation among State Departments of Transportation in the US

BackgroundIn the U.S., state departments of transportation (DOTs) play a key role in planning, designing, and building transportation infrastructure, as well as setting broad policy. DOTs historically have focused on highways, but their scope has been expanding. Starting in 1991, each state DOT must have a pedestrian and bicycle coordinator and must describe their bicycle and pedestrian programs in long-range plans. This research examines how and why state departments of transportation adopt policies that support active transportation. MethodsData were first collected from official state DOT long-range plans and guidance documents on the following topics. Second, we conducted a survey of state DOT bicycle and pedestrian coordinators. These data were supplemented with data on population, land use characteristics, and transportation infrastructure from federal agency sources. Results(Only partial results presented here.) Just over half (53%) of states also had a bicycle and pedestrian plan and half of the states (51%) have a bicycle and pedestrian advisory committee. Over two-thirds of the state DOTs support, or at least mention, the following active transportation elements: Coordination with land-use agencies; Retrofitting streets with pedestrian and bicycle accommodations; Pedestrian- and transit-friendly site designs; Crosswalks; Bike lanes; Multi-use trails and paths; Developing missing links in trail systems; and Traffic calming. Less than one-third of DOTs explicitly supported the following: Increasing density and mixed-use development; Road diets and narrow or “skinny” streets; Rail transit for everyday travel; Weather protection along sidewalks; and providing clear views of pedestrians for drivers when exiting (a parking facility) to the street.The degrees of support for active-living related innovation, as expressed in DOT plans, were totaled for each state. There is no clear relationship between overall population size and level of innovation. There was a significant positive correlation (r=0.39, p<0.01) between the percentage of states’ population in urban areas and level of innovation. States with land-use agencies show significantly higher support for active living-related innovation in their plans than states without state land-use agencies (p<0.05). There is no significant correlation between vehicles per capita and DOT innovation. However, there is a significant negative correlation between fuel consumption per household and innovation (r=−0.34, p<0.05). This is likely linked to the level of urban living. ConclusionsThe overall levels of support for active transportation in state DOT plans and guidance varies, and appears related to levels of urbanization. Overall, the level of commitment to more innovative policies, e.g. road diets, is minimal.

SOCIETY ACTIONS

SOCIETY ACTIONS

Unified assembly- and disassembly-line model formulae

Purpose – There is a rich body of literature on sequencing assembly and on sequencing disassembly, but little that either fuses or contrasts the two, which may be valuable for long-range planning in the closed-loop supply chain and simply convenient in terms of consistency in nomenclature and mathematical formulations. The purpose of this paper is to concisely unify and summarize assembly and disassembly formulae – as well as to add new formulations for completeness – and then demonstrate the similarities and differences between assembly and disassembly. Design/methodology/approach – Along with several familiar assembly-line formulae which are adapted here for disassembly, five (two specific and three general) metrics and a comparative performance formula from disassembly-line balancing are proposed for use in assembly- and disassembly-line sequencing and balancing either directly, through generalization, or with some extension. The size of assembly and disassembly search spaces are also quantified and formulated. Three new metrics are then developed from each of the general metrics to demonstrate the process of using these general formulae as prototypes. Findings – The three new metrics along with several of the original metrics are selectively applied to a simple, notional case study product to be sequenced on an assembly line and then on a disassembly line. Using these analytical results, the inherent differences between assembly and disassembly, even for a seemingly trivial product, are illustrated. Originality/value – The research adds several new assembly/disassembly metrics, a case study, unifies the evaluation formulae that assembly and disassembly hold in common as well as structuring prototype formulae for flexibility in generating new evaluation criteria for both, and quantifies (using the case study) how assembly and disassembly – while certainly possessing similarities – also demonstrate measurable differences that can be expected to affect product design, planning, production, and end-of-life processing.

ANTECEDENTS AND CONSEQUENCES OF HOUSEHOLD FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT IN BRAZILIAN LOWER-MIDDLE-CLASS

Through two complementary and exploratory studies – one qualitative and one quantitative – this research aims to understand the ways in which lower-middle-class families in Brazil manage their household finances. The study proposes an integrated framework that brings together various previously disconnected theoretical fragments. Based on a survey with a sample of 165 lower-middle-class female consumers of a retail company in São Paulo, we explored and tested, via a quantitative study, how antecedents such as personal characteristics affect the financial management process, as well as its consequences, either negatively as defaults or positively as savings. The model calibration and analysis were derived from a series of regression analyses. The results revealed the mediator role that financial management plays in the relationship between personal characteristics and defaults and savings. Compared to previous studies with consumers of more affluent countries, we identified peculiar findings among Brazilian lower-middle-class consumers: inadequate attention to control, weak or no focus on short- or long-range planning, widespread absence of budget surplus, and influence of critical events on episodes of default.

Message from the Business Office

What an exciting time to be a member of ASLO. 2014 was a banner year for our society beginning with a move to a new publishing partner, Wiley. A global organization, Wiley works with over 800 societies and publishes 1500 journals with four million articles. Wiley also will work with the library subscribers and offer many new services to both members and subscribers. Another important note is that ASLO has a new L&O Editor-in-Chief, Bob Howarth. In November, the ASLO board spent a weekend at Saguaro Lake Ranch in Mesa, Arizona, located on the banks of the Salt River and in the shadows of the Bulldog Cliffs. Board members worked very hard on long-range strategic planning for the society. The days were long but rewarding and included a short time out for a horseback ride or hike (complete with a rattlesnake!) ASLO had two joint meetings in 2014 serving over 9000 aquatic scientists. At the Ocean Sciences Meeting, over 35% were ASLO members and at the Joint Aquatic Sciences Meeting, over 30%. As this issue of the Bulletin is published, many of us will be at the 2015 ASLO Aquatic Sciences Meeting in Granada, Spain. This meeting is truly international with over 2300 participants from all over the globe. ASLO awards will be presented in Granada. There also will be a membership forum to talk with the board about your ideas for ASLO and an L&O editors and publisher forum. With all of these activities, ASLO is about you, our members. We hope that you have renewed your membership and maybe even became a sustaining member or taken advantage of the multiyear options. The business office is working on adding new functions to the membership web site including compatibility with mobile devices, one-click renewals, and expanded data in member records. Be sure to contact us at the ASLO Business Office (business@aslo.org) with any questions or comments. Helen Schneider Lemay, ASLO Business Office, 5400 Bosque Blvd., Suite 680, Waco, TX 76710-4446; Tel.: 254-399-9635 or 800-929-2756, Fax: 254-776-3767; business@also.org

Individual behaviour and long-range planning attitude

Declining welfare systems increase the importance of self-determination in pension decisions. Thus, the stability of long-life consumption markedly relies on individual long-range planning attitude. Our paper investigates how behavioural traits affect this attitude and influence the probability of holding voluntary integrative pension schemes (VIPS). We find that psychophysiological heterogeneity plays a role in predicting demand for VIPS, together with saving/indebtedness style and conventional sociodemographic characteristics. Specifically, individuals who have a high degree of non-planning impulsiveness, and who are inclined to intense psychophysiological arousals, are less likely to demand VIPS. Our results imply that behavioural individualities might prompt individuals to postpone, or even neglect, decisions necessary to maintain stable lifestyles in the long range.

Time Management and its Impact among Medical Laboratory Science Students’ Academic Performance and Engagement

Various researches have shown student engagement and academic performance as important predictors to educational success. This paper focused on determining the impact of time management factor on academic performance and engagement. Using frequency, chi-square, correlation and regression analysis, the relationship and effect of time management to student engagement and academic performance were examined among 102 regular junior Medical Laboratory Science students of Liceo de Cagayan University for the first semester of school year 2014-2015. The results revealed that in terms of time management, only a little more than half of the student-respondents feel they are in-charge of their time and sixty percent have good planning skills whether short-range or long-range planning. The results further revealed that student engagement, not academic performance, figured out prominently as the variable that bear on time management of the students. These findings support the need for review of procedures and structures of the College or the University in motivating students towards behavioral, cognitive and social engagement. Keywords: Time management, student engagement, academic performance, medical laboratory science

Context and meter enhance long-range planning in music performance.

Neural responses demonstrate evidence of resonance, or oscillation, during the production of periodic auditory events. Music contains periodic auditory events that give rise to a sense of beat, which in turn generates a sense of meter on the basis of multiple periodicities. Metrical hierarchies may aid memory for music by facilitating similarity-based associations among sequence events at different periodic distances that unfold in longer contexts. A fundamental question is how metrical associations arising from a musical context influence memory during music performance. Longer contexts may facilitate metrical associations at higher hierarchical levels more than shorter contexts, a prediction of the range model, a formal model of planning processes in music performance (Palmer and Pfordresher, 2003; Pfordresher et al., 2007). Serial ordering errors, in which intended sequence events are produced in incorrect sequence positions, were measured as skilled pianists performed musical pieces that contained excerpts embedded in long or short musical contexts. Pitch errors arose from metrically similar positions and further sequential distances more often when the excerpt was embedded in long contexts compared to short contexts. Musicians’ keystroke intensities and error rates also revealed influences of metrical hierarchies, which differed for performances in long and short contexts. The range model accounted for contextual effects and provided better fits to empirical findings when metrical associations between sequence events were included. Longer sequence contexts may facilitate planning during sequence production by increasing conceptual similarity between hierarchically associated events. These findings are consistent with the notion that neural oscillations at multiple periodicities may strengthen metrical associations across sequence events during planning.

Integrated Resource Planning for Long-term Electricity Supply in Selected GMS Countries, Part 2: Environmental and Economic Impacts

This research article presents the potential of integrated resource planning (IRP) options for long term electricity supply in selected Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) countries, namely Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam. Results from Part 1 show the achievement of the IRP context in GMS. The mitigation scenario would improve the quality of electricity supply and mitigate CO2 emissions from the power sector. At the same time, the renewable energy (RE) scenario has the highest total generation cost. However, to make the renewable energy technologies competitive with fossil fuels, incentives in terms of carbon credit are taken into account. Results of this study were analyzed by using the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning system model. Results reveal that under the IRP concept, the selected GMS countries could mitigate CO2 emissions by about 61.16 million tonnes when compared to the business as usual (BAU) scenario by 2030. In the meantime, under incentive cost in the RE scenario, the total generation would be reduced by 2.3% when compared to the BAU scenario.

Resilience in Planning: A Review of Comprehensive Plans in Mississippi after Hurricane Katrina

This paper analyzes and compares the decisions communities made in rebuilding after Hurricane Katrina in 2005 to determine to what extent post-Katrina comprehensive plans promote resilience based on built environment factors that have been shown to improve social networking, physical safety, and community building. Levels of recovery are also examined, measured by the current numbers of occupied housing units in each community compared with pre-Katrina numbers. After Katrina, multiple planning documents were produced by a variety of organizations. Mississippi state statute requires each municipality to have a long-range comprehensive plan adopted by the local governing body. Plans establish goals over a 20- to 25-year period of development and are required to address residential, commercial, and industrial development; parks, open space, and recreation; street and road improvements; and public schools and community facilities. To capture the most significant interests and values, the overarching goals and vision statements of post-Katrina plans were compared and analyzed. Plans from four Mississippi communities affected by Hurricane Katrina—Biloxi, Ocean Springs, Pascagoula, and Waveland—indicate that communities in the region understand many of the present strengths and weaknesses with respect to disaster resilience and have outlined a strategy to mitigate damage, reduce vulnerability, and create support networks to speed up recovery for a future disaster on the scale of Katrina. Like any plan, how and to what extent these ideals are implemented is a concern. During interviews in these communities, recurring concerns were public participation and, at the least, attention to the needs of residents in the planning process.

Mapping policies and programmes: the use of GIS to communicate spatial relationships in England

It has long been acknowledged that there is a gap between the advancement of GIS in the research field and its application in planning practice. This paper demonstrates the potential for employing simple GIS mapping overlays as a way of communicating complex planning issues in a ‘language’ that is easily understandable and effective at stimulating policy debate, critical thinking, and learning. The analysis focuses on capturing the synergies and conflicts in two key planning challenges in England, progrowth and housing delivery agendas. In a political context where spatial evidence-based policy making has been eroded in recent years, the analysis demonstrates the need for policy makers to ‘think spatially, act spatially’ when developing different policies and programmes. The paper concludes that only by making spatial relationships of policies and programmes explicit in a manner that is easily understood by a range of actors, can different spatial scenarios and metaphors of future opportunities and challenges be developed to inform long-range development and planning.

Designing Minnesota's I-35E MnPASS Managed Lane Extension

A major challenge in implementing congestion pricing is the public perception that access to the road system is being taken away. Regardless of whether the road is paid for with taxes, tolls, or operational and congestion costs, a perceived take-away can make support for such investments difficult to generate. The greater Minneapolis–Saint Paul region of Minnesota has implemented two MnPASS managed lane projects on I-394 and I-35 west in Minneapolis and surrounding suburbs and will open a third on I-35 east (I-35E) north of Saint Paul in 2015. This case study presents the results of a design alternatives study by the Minnesota Department of Transportation (DOT) for a proposed extension of the I-35E MnPASS managed lane, including results from Minnesota DOT's outreach and education effort and a similar effort led by the Metropolitan Council for the update of the region's long-range transportation plan. The MnPASS design alternatives included converting a general purpose lane to a priced lane. The study indicated the public would accept a take-away if there were clear and understandable benefits. Community dialogues held with I-35E stakeholders and additional regional focus groups conducted by the Metropolitan Council indicated that the public was generally not very well informed about the rationale for MnPASS lanes or managed lanes being a priority in the regional transportation plan; these results suggest that more outreach and education are needed and could help clarify the value of this approach.

Kuća u Splitskom statutu – građenje, održavanje, rušenje

U pogledu odredbi splitskog Statuta koje dodiruju pitanja svakodnevnog gradskog života, moglo bi se vjerojatno kazati da u njima nema projekcije nekog idealnog grada i da su one daleko od dalekosežnosti urbanih pravila koje donosi suvremeni dubrovački Statut. Činjenicu što se manje od 5% odredbi u Splitskom statutu odnosi na neki vid oblikovanja grada, treba uzeti kao potvrdu zaključka da je grad (zadan Dioklecijanovom gradnjom) izvana i iznutra oblikovno najvećim dijelom već definiran i da očito funkcionira na prilično zadovoljstvo svojih žitelja.Od tridesetak poglavlja Splitskog statuta koja tretiraju različite aspekte razvoja i svakodnevnog održavanja prostornog okvira gradskog života, članak posebno obrađuje odnos gradske uprave prema privatnom vlasništvu, slučajeve prenamjene privatnog prostora u javni, te "obredno radiranje", odnosno egzemplarno rušenje kuća onih koji su se izdajom ogriješili o gradske zakone. Taj fenomen, dakako, nije svojstven samo srednjovjekovnom Splitu, nego o njemu čujemo u većini dalmatinskih komuna (u Omišu i Dubrovniku još u 18. st.), pa smo ga pokušali objasniti na širem fondu vijesti iz samog vremena.

Kuća u Splitskom statutu – građenje, održavanje, rušenje

U pogledu odredbi splitskog Statuta koje dodiruju pitanja svakodnevnog gradskog života, moglo bi se vjerojatno kazati da u njima nema projekcije nekog idealnog grada i da su one daleko od dalekosežnosti urbanih pravila koje donosi suvremeni dubrovački Statut. Činjenicu što se manje od 5% odredbi u Splitskom statutu odnosi na neki vid oblikovanja grada, treba uzeti kao potvrdu zaključka da je grad (zadan Dioklecijanovom gradnjom) izvana i iznutra oblikovno najvećim dijelom već definiran i da očito funkcionira na prilično zadovoljstvo svojih žitelja.Od tridesetak poglavlja Splitskog statuta koja tretiraju različite aspekte razvoja i svakodnevnog održavanja prostornog okvira gradskog života, članak posebno obrađuje odnos gradske uprave prema privatnom vlasništvu, slučajeve prenamjene privatnog prostora u javni, te "obredno radiranje", odnosno egzemplarno rušenje kuća onih koji su se izdajom ogriješili o gradske zakone. Taj fenomen, dakako, nije svojstven samo srednjovjekovnom Splitu, nego o njemu čujemo u većini dalmatinskih komuna (u Omišu i Dubrovniku još u 18. st.), pa smo ga pokušali objasniti na širem fondu vijesti iz samog vremena.

Constructing Housing Management Toward Its Professionalization in Korea

The purpose of this study is to explore institutional frameworks to professionalize housing management in Korea. In particular, this research reviews the evolution of professional housing management and its institutional measures in a social constructionist perspective. The main method employed in the study is content analysis in which historical pathways in institutionalization of professional housing management are examined and a wide array of indices from secondary data are drawn out in relation to various actors. The findings show that a series of institutional measures were taken from 1970s to secure the professionalization of housing management ranging from introduction of housing management bylaws, placement of licensed housing managers, legal requirements of professionally managed housing estates, compulsory operation of long-term reserve funds, formation of residents’ association, mandatory establishment of long-range maintenance planning, to standardization of multifamily housing management bylaws. Since the Multifamily Housing Management Ordinance of 1979 amended in 1980s, many institutional measures have been legally enforced and shaped contemporary practices of professional housing management such as an association for housing management companies, qualification of on-site housing management agents, national licensing examination for housing managers, an organization for licensed housing mangers, mandatory registration of housing management companies, disclosure of monthly housing management fees, and formalization of public assessment of housing management. In spite of the distinctive marks in the professionalization of housing management, more proactive and competitive approaches to the international professionalization need to be considered.

Planning for Sustainable Transport in Germany and the USA: A Comparison of the Washington, DC and Stuttgart Regions

Federal, state, and local governments in Germany and the USA strive to make passenger transport more sustainable to combat oil dependence, climate change, local pollution, and negative public health outcomes. This paper compares the Washington, DC and Stuttgart regions to demonstrate differences and similarities between the German and US land-use and transport planning systems. To illustrate local planning for more sustainable transport, we compare two best-practice examples for integrating transport and land-use planning: the Rosslyn–Ballston Corridor in Arlington County in the DC metro region and Scharnhauser Park in the City of Ostfildern in the Stuttgart region. In spite of significant differences in motorization, travel behaviour, sustainability, and planning systems, both Arlington County and the City of Ostfildern promote sustainable transport using comparable strategies: (1) mixed-use development around public transport stations; (2) comprehensive long-range plans; (3) citizen participation; and (4) coordinated transport, housing, and economic development policies.

The Long-range Planning and CEO Succession in The Privatized Firm: Focusing on CEO Succession Plan in POSCO

The Long-range Planning and CEO Succession in The Privatized Firm: Focusing on CEO Succession Plan in POSCO