Lombardy Region Research Articles

Multifractal analysis of the perimeters of glaciers in the Svalbard Archipelago

The investigation of the evolution of glaciers largely relies on the characterisation of extensive quantities like their mass, area, and perimeter. In this work we use fractal and multifractal analysis to investigate the non-extensive structural properties of the perimeters of glaciers in the Svalbard Archipelago. We show that the perimeters of the glaciers exhibit a fractal structure with a fractal dimension Df≃1.25 , independently from the area of the glaciers. The investigation of the multifractal properties of the perimeters shows that small glaciers exhibit a more pronounced multifractal structure, as witnessed by the larger range of generalized dimensions Dq needed to characterise them. The range ΔD q of generalised dimensions required to characterise the multifractal perimeter of a glacier exhibits a power-law dependence with exponent −1.2 from the area, and represents a non-extensive parameter able to grab effectively the dependence of the multifractal structure of the perimeters on the size of glaciers. The comparison with similar results obtained in a previous study performed on glaciers in the Lombardy region of the Italian Alps confirms the robustness of the analysis performed, which does not appear to be affected by the morphology of the substrate or by climate conditions.

Vaccination Open Day: A Cross-Sectional Study on the 2023 Experience in Lombardy Region, Italy.

Vaccination is a highly effective tool for controlling infectious diseases, particularly in populations at high risk of contagion due to clinical conditions or occupational exposure, such as healthcare workers. The purpose of this study is to present the open day event that marked the beginning of the influenza and anti-COVID-19 vaccination campaign in the Lombardy region and to describe the experience of an Istituto di Ricovero e Cura a Carattere Scientifico in Milan. During the vaccination open day, eligible individuals received free vaccinations for influenza, COVID-19, pneumococcal disease, and shingles, as provided by the Lombardy Agenzia per la Tutela della Salute. In celebration of the centenary of the Università degli Studi di Milano, the Fondazione Ca'Granda Ospedale Policlinico, a contracted hospital of the university, created a special electronic diary for a total of 150 individuals, equally divided between children aged 2-6, pregnant women, and university staff. At the regional level, a total of 6634 influenza vaccines, 2055 anti-COVID-19 vaccines, 108 anti-pneumococcal vaccines, and 37 anti-zoster vaccines were administered. A total of 3134 (47.3%) influenza vaccines, 1151 (56%) anti-COVID-19 vaccines, and 77 (62%) anti-pneumococcal vaccines, were given to individuals aged 60-79. No differences were observed between the total number of male and female vaccinees (1017 and 1038, respectively), who received the anti-COVID-19 vaccine. At the Policlinico Foundation, out of 150 available booking slots, 154 vaccines were administered, including 117 influenza vaccines. The establishment of vaccine open days is a beneficial way to increase vaccine compliance. Co-administration of little-known vaccinations outside of healthcare settings could also be a useful tool.

Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest in the Paediatric Patient: An Observational Study in the Context of National Regulations.

Introduction: Cardiac arrest results in a high death rate if cardiopulmonary resuscitation and early defibrillation are not performed. Mortality is strongly linked to regulations, in terms of prevention and emergency-urgency system organization. In Italy, training of lay rescuers and the presence of defibrillators were recently made mandatory in schools. Our analysis aims to analyze Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest (OHCA) events in pediatric patients (under 18 years old), to understand the epidemiology of this phenomenon and provide helpful evidence for policy-making. Methods: A retrospective observational analysis was conducted on the emergency databases of Lombardy Region, considering all pediatric OHCAs managed between 1 January 2016, and 31 December 2019. The demographics of the patients and the logistics of the events were statistically analyzed. Results: The incidence in pediatric subjects is 4.5 (95% CI 3.6-5.6) per 100,000 of the population. School buildings and sports facilities have relatively few events (1.9% and 4.4%, respectively), while 39.4% of OHCAs are preventable, being due to violent accidents or trauma, mainly occurring on the streets (23.2%). Conclusions: Limiting violent events is necessary to reduce OHCA mortality in children. Raising awareness and giving practical training to citizens is a priority in general but specifically in schools.

Isolation and Molecular Evidence of Tunisian Sheep-like Pestivirus (Pestivirus N) in Persistently Infected Sheep in Northern Italy, 2023.

Over the last few decades, several pestiviruses have been discovered in ruminants, pigs, and, more recently, in non-ungulate hosts. Consequently, the nomenclature and taxonomy of pestiviruses have been updated. The Tunisian sheep-like pestivirus (TSV, Pestivirus N) is an additional ovine pestivirus genetically closely related to classical swine fever virus (CSFV). In this study, during a survey of pestivirus infections in ovine farms in the Lombardy region of Northern Italy, we identified and isolated a pestivirus strain from a sheep that was found to belong to Pestivirus N species based on its genomic nucleotide identity. The sheep itself and its lamb were found to be persistently infected. We performed molecular characterization and phylogenetic analysis of three viral genomic regions (a fragment of 5'-UTR, partial Npro, and the whole E2 region). In conclusion, these results confirmed circulating TSV in Northern Italy after notification in Sicily, Italy, and France. Correlation with Italian, Tunisian, and French strains showed that detection might have resulted from the trading of live animals between countries, which supports the need for health control measures.

ROLE OF ST–SEGMENT ELEVATION AT POST–ROSC ECG IN PATIENTS RESUSCITATED FROM OUT–OF–HOSPITAL CARDIAC ARREST

Abstract Background A 12–lead electrocardiogram (ECG), performed after return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) in out–of–hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA), is essential for the identification of ST–segment elevation). The aim of the study is to investigate whether the presence of ST elevation may be a prognostic determinant in post–OHCA patients. Materials and Methods A total of 878 post–ROSC ECGs were collected from patients enrolled from 01/01/2015 to 12/31/2022 from the Lombardy Region Cardiac Arrest Registry (LombardiaCARe). Univariable and multivariable Cox regression models were applied to test the association between the presence of and morphology of supraST and mortality at 30 days after the event. Results Among the 878 post–ROSC ECGs, 406 (46.2%) had ST elevation [49 with tombstone morphology; 26 with lambda morphology; 45 with triangular morphology; and 8 with wave morphology]. Patients with ST elevation were more frequently males (73% vs 59%, p<0.001), younger [66 years old (57–75) vs 71 (61–80), p<0.01], and with a more frequently non–defibrillating rhythm of presentation (25%vs59%, p<0.01) and an event more frequently witnessed by 118 (30% vs 21%, p=0.008). Thirty–day survival was higher in patients with ST elevation (56% vs 41%, p<0.001). Correcting for variables associated with 30–day survival (age, sex, QRS amplitude, ECG acquisition time, first rhythm of presentation), the presence of ST elevation was not significantly associated with 30–day mortality [HR: 0.67 (95% CI: 0.27–1.64); p=0.05], while the number of segments was [1.1 (95%CI 0.85–0.15), p=0.004]. No morphology was independently associated with mortality when compared with standard morphology. Conclusions The presence of ST elevation on ECG post ROSC possesses, in addition to a known diagnostic role, a prognostic role in predicting 30–day survival especially if present in more than one segment.

Targeting farmers’ heterogeneity to enrich climate change adaptation policy design: findings from northern Italy

With its scientifically proven effects and widespread acceptance, climate change stands as one of the most pressing and intricate challenges for society and economies. Farmers are on the frontline of managing climate change. Therefore, how they perceive and respond to climate change shapes their risk assessment and structures future resilience and adaptive capacity. Employing a bottom-up approach, we conducted 460 surveys randomly among farmers throughout the Lombardy region in northern Italy. A triple-loop approach considering climate change awareness, perceived impacts, and adaptation measures and barriers was implemented to characterize the potential heterogeneity of farmer behaviour and explore whether risk attitudes and adaptation actions differ between farmer profiles. We then profiled farmers through a clustering analysis. Four groups emerged, highlighting farmers’ adaptation preferences and risk attitudes: (1) cropping-adapted and isolated farmers, (2) cooperation-adapted and insecure farmers, (3) risk insurance-adapted and confident farmers, and (4) climate services-adapted and aware farmers. Although the groups vary in terms of farmers’ characterization and farming activities (e.g. young and highly educated vs. old and highly experienced farmers, rainfed vs. irrigated farms), similar patterns were observed regarding climate change awareness and perceived impacts—however, the contrast increased in terms of adaptation measures and barriers. Gaining a more comprehensive understanding of the diverse ways in which farmers assess risks and adapt can promote the transferability of bottom-up findings and inform the co-design of tailored and flexible adaptation instruments, minimizing the risk of maladaptation or ineffective transformation in the face of climate change.

COST-EFFECTIVENESS OF SINGLE-PILL AND SEPARATE-PILL ADMINISTRATION OF ANTIHYPERTENSIVE TRIPLE-COMBINATION THERAPY: A POPULATION-BASED MICROSIMULATION STUDY

Objective: To evaluate the lifetime cost-effectiveness profile of the perindopril/amlodipine/indapamide single-pill combination (SPC) compared with the combination of an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor, a calcium-channel blocker, and a diuretic as a SPC of two drugs plus the third drug separately from the Italian payer perspective. Design and method: A cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted employing multi-state semi-Markov modeling and microsimulation. Using the healthcare utilization database of the Lombardy Region (Italy), 30,172 and 65,817 patients aged >=40 years who initiated SPC and two-pill combination, respectively, between 2015 and 2018 were identified. The observation period extended from the date of the first drug prescription until death, emigration, or December 31, 2019. Disease and cost models were parametrized using the study cohort, and a lifetime microsimulation was applied to project costs and life expectancy for the compared strategies Probabilistic sensitivity analysis with 1,000 samples was performed to address parameter uncertainty. Results: Compared with the two-pill combination, the SPC increased life expectancy by 0.86 years (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.61–1.14), with a reduction in total cost of –€12 (95% CI –9,719 to 8,131), making it the dominant strategy (ICER of –14, 95% CI –€15,871 to €7,113). The cost reduction associated with the SPC was primarily driven by savings in hospitalization costs, amounting to €1,850 (95% CI 17 to 7,813) and €2,027 (95% CI 19 to 8,603) for patients treated with the SPC and two-pill combination, respectively. Conversely, drug costs were higher for the SPC (€3,848, 95% CI 574 to 10,640 vs. €3,710, 95% CI 263 to 11,955). This was the case for all strata of age, sex, and clinical status. Conclusions: The SPC was projected to increase survival and reduce costs compared with the two-pill combination. This is likely explained by an improvement in drug compliance. As three-drug SPC is currently prescribed to only a few patients, the widespread use of this strategy could result in benefits for both patients and the healthcare system.

The COVID-19 Pandemic Was Associated with a Change in Therapeutic Management and Mortality in Heart Failure Patients.

Background: Heart failure (HF)-related mortality has been exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic; however, it is unclear how healthcare reassessment has contributed to the excess mortality versus SARS-CoV-2 infection itself. We aimed to assess how the pandemic affected the therapeutic management and prognosis of HF patients. Methods: We retrospectively reviewed the healthcare utilization databases of the Lombardy region (Italy) to identify all newly-diagnosed HF patients from January 2018 to December 2021. Outcomes were the utilization of HF therapies (Sacubitril/Valsartan; cardiac resynchronization therapy [CRT] and/or implantable cardioverter-defibrillator [ICD]; mechanical circulatory support [MCS]; heart transplantation [HTX]) and mortality. Cox regression models were fitted to estimate the hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for outcomes associated with the pandemic. Results: 36,130 and 17,263 patients were identified in the pre-pandemic and pandemic eras, respectively. The pandemic reduced Sacubitril/Valsartan utilization (HR = 0.77, 95% CI: 0.65-0.91) and CRT/ICD implantation (HR = 0.85, 95% CI: 0.78-0.92), but not MCS (HR = 1.11, 95% CI: 0.86-1.43) and HTX (HR = 0.88, 95% CI: 0.70-1.09). An increased mortality risk was observed during the pandemic (HR = 1.19, 95% CI: 1.15-1.23), which was attributable to SARS-CoV-2 infection (HR for non-COVID-19-related mortality = 1.01, 95% CI: 0.97-1.04). Conclusions: The COVID-19 pandemic was associated with a reduction in medical and interventional therapies for HF and an increase in mortality for HF patients.

Landslide susceptibility mapping using ensemble machine learning methods: a case study in Lombardy, Northern Italy

Landslide susceptibility mapping using ensemble machine learning methods: a case study in Lombardy, Northern Italy

Context‐related mechanisms of policy sustainability: Governance reform of the protected areas in Lombardy

AbstractThe management of protected areas has been recognised as a particularly complex policy field, with many interacting actors and frequent conflicts. How policies survive potential or actual conflict is a matter of policy sustainability; policy manipulation can modify the roles and perceptions of policy actors to achieve outcomes closer to the desired ones—at least, desired by the enacting coalitions. The article investigates the governance reform of protected areas in Lombardy, Italy, focusing on the dynamics of policy sustainability amidst conflict and opposition. It examines how the Lombardy Region's 2016 reform aimed to consolidate the management of protected areas under the umbrella of regional park authorities. Despite the reform's ultimate goals appeared unquestioned, it encountered significant resistance from local administrations. The analysis focused on the context features (pre‐existence of local cooperation agreements, and salience of the protected area), and mechanisms (reputation, and loss aversion) in place at local level. Their combination appears able to explain the varied outcomes of the reform, ranging from failure to partial success.

A NLP-based semi-automatic identification system for delays in follow-up examinations: an Italian case study on clinical referrals

BackgroundThis study aims to propose a semi-automatic method for monitoring the waiting times of follow-up examinations within the National Health System (NHS) in Italy, which is currently not possible to due the absence of the necessary structured information in the official databases.MethodsA Natural Language Processing (NLP) based pipeline has been developed to extract the waiting time information from the text of referrals for follow-up examinations in the Lombardy Region. A manually annotated dataset of 10 000 referrals has been used to develop the pipeline and another manually annotated dataset of 10 000 referrals has been used to test its performance. Subsequently, the pipeline has been used to analyze all 12 million referrals prescribed in 2021 and performed by May 2022 in the Lombardy Region.ResultsThe NLP-based pipeline exhibited high precision (0.999) and recall (0.973) in identifying waiting time information from referrals’ texts, with high accuracy in normalization (0.948-0.998). The overall reporting of timing indications in referrals’ texts for follow-up examinations was low (2%), showing notable variations across medical disciplines and types of prescribing physicians. Among the referrals reporting waiting times, 16% experienced delays (average delay = 19 days, standard deviation = 34 days), with significant differences observed across medical disciplines and geographical areas.ConclusionsThe use of NLP proved to be a valuable tool for assessing waiting times in follow-up examinations, which are particularly critical for the NHS due to the significant impact of chronic diseases, where follow-up exams are pivotal. Health authorities can exploit this tool to monitor the quality of NHS services and optimize resource allocation.

Estimating All-Cause Deaths Averted in the First Two Years of the COVID-19 Vaccination Campaign in Italy.

Comparing deaths averted by vaccination campaigns is a crucial public health endeavour. Excess all-cause deaths better reflect the impact of the pandemic than COVID-19 deaths. We used a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous factors model to regress daily all-cause deaths on annual trend, seasonality, and environmental temperature in three Italian regions (Lombardy, Marche and Sicily) from 2015 to 2019. The model was used to forecast excess deaths during the vaccinal period (December 2020-October 2022). We used the prevented fraction to estimate excess deaths observed during the vaccinal campaigns, those which would have occurred without vaccination, and those averted by the campaigns. At the end of the vaccinal period, the Lombardy region proceeded with a more intensive COVID-19 vaccination campaign than other regions (on average, 1.82 doses per resident, versus 1.67 and 1.56 in Marche and Sicily, respectively). A higher prevented fraction of all-cause deaths was consistently found in Lombardy (65% avoided deaths, as opposed to 60% and 58% in Marche and Sicily). Nevertheless, because of a lower excess mortality rate found in Lombardy compared to Marche and Sicily (12, 24 and 23 per 10,000 person-years, respectively), a lower rate of averted deaths was observed (22 avoided deaths per 10,000 person-years, versus 36 and 32 in Marche and Sicily). In Lombardy, early and full implementation of adult COVID-19 vaccination was associated with the largest reduction in all-cause deaths compared to Marche and Sicily.

Surge of Mpox cases in Lombardy region, Italy, October 2023 - January 2024.

Surge of Mpox cases in Lombardy region, Italy, October 2023 - January 2024.

Physical healthcare gap among patients with severe mental illness through the COVID-19 pandemic. Preliminary results from a real-world investigation in Lombardy, Italy

IntroductionPatients suffering from mental disorders tend to be less adherent to the recommended therapies. Moreover, the COVID-19 pandemic had a global impact on physical and social well-being, which turned out stronger in the most fragile patients, like those with a mental condition.ObjectivesTo assess whether the COVID-19 pandemic influenced the physical healthcare gap between patients with and without severe mental illness (SMI) treated for chronic conditions.MethodsData were retrieved from Healthcare Utilization Databases of Lombardy region (Italy). Prevalent users of antihypertensive drugs, statins or antidiabetic drugs, receiving healthcare in Lombardy during 2020, were identified. Among them, those with a previous diagnosis of schizophrenic or bipolar disorder were selected and matched with up to 3 patients without any sign of mental disorder by sex, age and number of contacts with the NHS during the previous year. 3 cohorts (not necessarily independent) were formed.High adherence to specific recommended drug therapies and discontinuation during 2020 were evaluated.Association between presence of SMI and high adherence was evaluated by using a log-binomial model (risk ratios, RR with 95% CI); a Cox model (hazard ratios, HR) was used for discontinuation.As comparison, same analyses were performed to the cohorts of prevalent users in 2019, to evaluate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Results were stratified according to the type of mental disorder.Results36'436, 14'136 and 12'597 prevalent users of antihypertensives, statins or antidiabetics respectively were identified, of which 25% with SMI (9'109, 3'536 and 3'152 respectively).During the pandemic period, for all the three cohorts, patients with mental illness had 10% lower probability of being adherent to the recommended drug therapies.The association between SMI and discontinuation was significant and varied among the three cohorts, with HR (95% CI): 1.27 (1.21; 1.33) for antihypertensives users, 1.16 (1.07; 1.26) for antidiabetics users and 1.08 (1.01; 1.16) for statins users.Compared with 2019 the gap remained similar, except for discontinuation of antidiabetics, where the gap diminished from 34% in 2019 to 16% in 2020.No differences between the two mental disorders were found.ConclusionsResults show that suffering from a mental disorder in people with chronic physical conditions affects their adherence to recommended drug therapies. During the pandemic period, the restrictive measures adopted may have led to a better care by family members, counteracting any increase in the gap.The healthcare gap in patients suffering from mental illness remains an unsolved problem of primary importance for public health.Disclosure of InterestNone Declared

Dynamics of viral DNA shedding and culture viral DNA positivity in different clinical samples collected during the 2022 mpox outbreak in Lombardy, Italy

BackgroundMpox virus (MPXV) has recently spread outside of sub-Saharan Africa. This large multicentre study was conducted in Lombardy, the most densely populated Italian region accounting for more than 40% of Italian cases. The present study aims to: i) evaluate the presence and the shedding duration of MPXV DNA in different body compartments correlating the MPXV viability with the time to onset of symptoms; ii) provide evidence of MPXV persistence in different body compartment as a source of infection and iii) characterize the MPXV evolution by whole genome sequencing (WGS) during the outbreak occurred in Italy. Material and methodsThe study included 353 patients with a laboratory-confirmed diagnosis of MPXV infection screened in several clinical specimens in the period May 24th - September 1st, 2022. Viral isolation was attempted from different biological matrices and complete genome sequencing was performed for 61 MPXV strains. ResultsMPXV DNA detection was more frequent in the skin (94.4%) with the longest median time of viral clearance (16 days). The actively-replicating virus in cell culture was obtained for 123/377 (32.6%) samples with a significant higher viral quantity on isolation positive samples (20 vs 31, p < 0.001). The phylogenetic analysis highlighted the high genetic identity of the MPXV strains collected, both globally and within the Lombardy region. ConclusionSkin lesion is gold standard material and the high viral load and the actively-replicating virus observed in genital sites confirms that sexual contact plays a key role in the viral transmission.

Increased mortality in socioeconomic disadvantaged municipalities during the first phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in Lombardy region.

Lombardy was the first European region most severely affected by the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic in the spring of 2020. During that period, a substantial increase in socioeconomic inequality in total mortality was observed. This study aims to evaluate mortality data in the region up to September 2023 to verify whether the increased disparities between the poorest and the wealthiest municipalities persisted in the subsequent phases of the pandemic. This study analyzed mortality data from January 2019 to September 2023 in Lombardy's municipalities by month and pandemic phases characterized by the predominance of the different severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants. Municipalities were grouped according to the average income or pension of their residents. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) and the ASMR ratio between the poorest and the wealthiest municipalities were compared throughout the study period. In the pre-pandemic period (January 2019 - February 2020), the ASMR ratio at all ages between the poorest and the wealthiest municipalities fluctuated between 1.12 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.07-1.16] and 1.29 (95% CI: 1.25-1.34). In March 2020, the ASMR ratio increased to 1.49 (95% CI: 1.45-1.52 95%) and returned to values registered before the pandemic thereafter. A similar pattern was observed in the analysis of mortality ≥ 65, using the average pension for group municipalities. During the dramatic circumstances that the region faced in March 2020, pre-existing socioeconomic inequalities substantially widened. With the reorganization of the health system and the availability of vaccines, these disparities returned to the levels recorded before the pandemic.

Adherence to GLP1-RA and SGLT2-I affects clinical outcomes and costs in patients with type 2 diabetes.

To evaluate the impact of adherence to glucagon like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP1-RA) and sodium-glucose transporter two inhibitors (SGLT2-I) on clinical outcomes and costs in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). The 121,115 residents of the Lombardy Region (Italy) aged ≥40years newly treated with metformin during 2007-2015 were followed to identify those who started therapy with GLP1-RA or SGLT2-I. Adherence to drug therapy over the first year was defined as the proportion of days covered >80%. Within each drug class, for each adherent patient, one non-adherent patient was matched for age, sex, duration, adherence to metformin treatment and propensity score. The primary clinical outcome was a composite of insulin initiation, hospitalisation for micro- and macrovascular complications and all-cause mortality after the first year of drug treatment. Costs were evaluated based on reimbursements from the national healthcare system. After matching, 1182 pairs of adherent and non-adherent GLP1-RA users and 1126 pairs of adherent and non-adherent SGLT2-I users were included. In both groups, adherent patients experienced a significantly lower incidence of the primary outcome (HR: 0.85, 95% CI 0.72-0.98 for GLP1-RA and HR: 0.69, 95% CI 0.55-0.87 for SGLT2-I). A significant reduction in hospitalizations was found for adherent patients in the GLP1-RA group but not for the SGLT2-I group. Results were consistent when analyses were stratified by age and sex. While higher drug-related costs in the adherent group were counterbalanced by decreased hospitalisation costs in SGLT2-I treated patients, this was not the case for GLP1-RA. Higher adherence to drug treatment with GLP1-RA and SGLT2-I during the first year of the drug intake is associated with a lower incidence of adverse clinical outcomes in a real-world setting.

Sustainability decision‐making in times of crisis: An empirical study in Italy under the lens of the Russian‐Ukraine war

AbstractThis research examines the impact of the Russian‐Ukraine war on the decisions made by managers regarding the three dimensions of the triple bottom line (TBL) of sustainability. Specifically, it investigates how managers in the Lombardy region of Italy adapted their approaches towards sustainability during this crisis. The descriptive statistics and PCA analyses demonstrate that managers adjusted their decisions regarding the social dimension of sustainability in response to the prevailing circumstances. The Russian‐Ukraine war has led to a convergence of the social and economic dimensions within firms. However, the study also reveals that the social dimension is often considered secondary to the core business, making it the weakest aspect of the TBL approach. Nonetheless, external disruptions, such as in the case of the Russian‐Ukraine war, can influence this approach, leading to a repositioning of the social dimension as a focal point in business strategies. By emphasizing the importance of considering social aspects in sustainability decision‐making during crises, this research contributes valuable insights to the existing literature. The findings can inform the development of strategies to address challenges posed by the Russian‐Ukraine war and enhance the integration of social criteria in sustainability decision‐making.

Statistical downscaling of GCMs wind speed data for trend analysis of future scenarios: a case study in the Lombardy region

Near-surface wind speed is a key climatic variable, affecting many sectors, such as energy production, air pollution, and natural hazard. Lombardy region of Italy is among the European areas with lowest average wind speed, leading generally to low air quality and wind energy potential. However, it is also one of the most affected area by tornadoes in Italy. Here we investigate possible changes in wind circulation as due to prospective global warming. We analysed wind speed WS under future scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) from six Global Climate Models (GCMs) until 2100, tuned against observed WS data. We employed a statistical downscaling method, namely Stochastic Time Random Cascade (STRC) to correct locally GCMs outputs. Three statistical tests, i.e. Linear Regression, Mann Kendall, Moving Window Average, were carried out to analyse future trends of: annual WS averages, 95th quantile (as an indicator of large WS), and the number of days of calm wind per year (NWC). The proposed STRC algorithm can successfully adjust the mean, standard deviation, and autocorrelation structure of the GCM outputs. No strong trends are found for the future. The chosen variables would all display non-stationarity, and the 95th percentile display a positive trend for most of the stations. Concerning NWC, notable discrepancies among GCMs are seen. The STRC algorithm can be used to successfully adjust GCMs outputs to reflect locally observed data and to then generate credible long-term scenarios for WSs as a tool for decision-making.

Monitoring ammonia concentrations in more than 10 stations in the Po Valley for the period 2007–2022 in relation to the evolution of different sources

Regarding secondary aerosols, in addition to the significant contribution of anthropogenic gases such as NOx and SO2, atmospheric ammonia (NH3) plays a crucial role as the primary basic gaseous species capable of neutralizing acidic compounds. This acid–base reaction is responsible for the formation of ammonium nitrate (NH4NO3), constituting up to 60% of PM10 within the Po River basin in Italy. Ion chromatographic analyses performed on offline samples indicate that this secondary inorganic species exhibits minimal concentration variability over the Po Valley because of limited air circulation due to orography and mesoscale air circulation. Therefore, investigating gaseous precursors becomes crucial. From the northern to the southern part of Lombardy—the region at the center of the basin—NH3 emission amounts account for 2.5, 11.1, and 27.7 t/y/km2, mainly due to agriculture and livestock activities (∼97%). To study NH3 temporal and spatial variability, the Environmental Protection Agency of Lombardy Region has been monitoring NH3 concentrations across its territory since 2007, with 10 active monitoring sites. Annual and seasonal cycles are presented, along with a focus on different stations, including urban, low-mountain background, high-impact livestock, and rural background, highlighting the impact of various sources. Measurements indicate that within the Po basin, NH3 concentrations can reach up to 700 µg/m3 (as an hourly average) in proximity to the main gaseous NH3 source. Instrument intercomparisons among online monitors and passive vials, as well as different online monitors, are presented. Therefore, this paper provides crucial data to understand the formation of secondary inorganic aerosols in one of the most important hotspot sites for air pollution.